Donald Trump is now tied with Mike Huckabee for first place when Republicans are asked who they support for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, according to a new national poll.
Here’s what I’d like to know: are there Republicans who are single-issue voters on birtherism? That is, are there Republican primary voters who will vote for whichever candidate embraces birtherism most strongly? I suspect that there are, and if I had to guess the percentage, it would be 27% of Republican primary voters.
Update. Someone in an earlier thread suggested that birtherism might be become an accepted fact like Al Gore saying he invented the internet, but headlines like this indicate that’s a bridge too far for the media “President Obama’s Half-Sister Is Asked About Birther Nonsense“. Granted, Tapper is one of the better DC reporters out there, but Candy Crowley wasn’t having any of it either and she’s not one of the better ones.
scav
I swear, it’s like they’re teeny-bops with all the posters of their pop-star idols on a prayer wheel.
David in NY
Aren’t you required to link to this?
Elia Isquire
I think Trump’s “surge” (it’s a paper tiger, but w/e) is pretty compelling evidence that there is a strong birther-uber-alles vote in the GOP. It’s one helluva shibboleth.
Villago Delenda Est
Well, being a jump up and down screaming birfer obviously appeals to the fucktard 27%.
So Trump is playing this for all it’s worth. It pays, and it feeds his monstrous ego.
The problem for the GOP is that they will not be able to get votes past their cretinous base in the general election.
Obama landslide, here we come!
Elizabelle
I am thinking we’re far enough out that the GOP will let their crazyassness peter out and they’ll get a more reasonable candidate as the primaries begin.
Could be wrong, but so much craziness and too much time.
I think the GOP is trying to tamp down the birthers and play up to the Tea Party.
(Today’s WaPost has a Glenn Kessler debunking of Trump and Palin’s birther claims.)
Hermione Granger-Weasley
Around 70% of GOP primary voters are birthers. I suspect it is higher.
There is prolly a correlation between primary voter and intensity of belief (salience).
Elizabelle
Besides, it’s easier for our journalist poodles to debunk birtherism than it is to squarely address Paul Ryan’s budget.
David Brooks: Birtherism, not cool. Tea Party: grassroots American patriotism on display. Let’s take it bipartisan, since it’s “serious”.
Joel
It’s all over for the GOP primary field once the Joker declares his candidacy.
eastriver
I have a silly question. Has anyone ever seen a “long form” Hawaiian birth certificate? Any where? Have the birthers ever dug one up? And if so, where did the image come from? (If in fact the “long form” certificates are supposed to be unreleaseable.)
If the state government of Hawaii releases it, how will anyone know if it’s authentic?
Like I said, silly question.
Dave
@Elizabelle: Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to sustain crazy.
Kane
Birtherism is nothing more than the latest GOP swift-boating. In large measure, these are the same people who wore band-aids at the 2004 Republican presidential convention to mock and to put into question John Kerry’s war wounds. The very same people who developed an industry of conspiracy theories surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton, accusing them of everything from murder to operating a drug cartel.
In all of the above examples, the mainstream media has been a willing participant, happily reporting the baseless rumors and conspiracies and giving the nuts/racists/liars all the interviews and attention that they crave. Birtherism is good for ratings and website visits! The media rationalizes their coverage and ensures the birther story stays alive by conducting weekly polls, continually asking if republicans believe in the rumors and conspiracies, never bothering to consider the notion that republicans might just be saying that they believe in the conspiracies just to keep the conspiracies alive in the mainstream media.
gnomedad
Racism aside, some wingers are birthers because it’s something bad and it’s about Obama, so they have a patriotic duty to believe it. Perhaps I underestimate the crazy, but it’s hard to see this being a single-issue thing for its own sake. On the other hand, no one signed on to the tea party agenda will call it straight-out crazy; they’ll just do what Palin did and go a little wobbly while still “appreciating that this is an important issue” or some such BS.
Zifnab
Talk about your damning with faint praise.
Wallace
I think Republicans support him simply because they think he has the best chance of winning. And he’s really rich, so of course he must be naturally good at running an organization. He’d be like the CEO-president squared. The birther stuff just dispels any suspicions that he has some secret New York/Hollywood liberalness in their somewhere.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
Has the Real Leader of the Liberals aka Jon Stewart weighed in yet?
Dave
@Wallace: I think that is definitely part of it. My rejoinder would be…he bankrupted a casino. That’s near impossible.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
Tapper is just another fight promoter. Endemic birtherism will make the election extemely one-sided and boring.
Lev
It’s a good question. I don’t think there are many Republicans who say, “I’ll vote for anyone who tells it like it is on Obama’s birth certificate!” But, as has been established, conservatives are the party of affect and respond much more to tone and volume than substance. From what I’ve read, Trump’s ideology is some cross of cynical calculation and mental illness, but what there is of it seems substantially less right-wing than, say, that of Mitch Daniels. (Trump favors collective bargaining, for example.)
I don’t think there are conscious birther voters, but I can easily see someone on the right say, “Well, Trump is telling the truth on Obama and they’re crucifying him!“
Suck It Up!
I wish the media would give Obama’s dead mother the same respect they give Sarah Palin about the birth of their children.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Kane: no, its racism. Because they can’t turn it off. Racism is embedded in the right.
Membah when Brietbart tried to make out that the NAACP and Sherrod and the Left were the “real” racists, and that retard teabagger came out with his Letter to Lincoln?
They can’t turn it off….just like they can’t turn off the birtherism.
Elvis Elvisberg
27%? Sounds … a bit low, actually.
Over half of Republican primary voters are birthers. Since there’s no policy content to GOP allegiance, only tribalistic resentment of liberals, minorities, and foreigners, it makes perfect sense that they’ve convinced themselves the president is all three.
Mike in NC
This phenomenon is known as “scraping the bottom of the barrel”.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Zifnab: also, endemic birtherism interferes with the Village/Tapper/Politico/EDK narrative that “both sides have good ideas”. Its “unfair”, because there is no analogous behavior on the left so that they can say “both sides do it.”
steviez314
Crazy factor is 27% OF ALL VOTERS. That would put the percentage of Republican primary voters somewhere up at 90%.
arguingwithsignposts
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: Gawd would you STFU about EDK already. he has nothing – absolutely fucking nothing – to do with this thread, yet you dredge him up. Quick, tell us your demographic clock, WEC OODA WAI theory. head/desk.
Zifnab
The truly hilarious joke here is that The Donald really isn’t much of a conservative at all. He’s a New York media event. The man’s politics boil down to “What will give me the most attention and the most revenue?”
All the things Tea Party Patriots say they believe in – low taxes, states rights, 2nd amendment remedies, small government – haven’t been explored by Trump in the least. He’s never been a politician and has nothing resembling a voting record. He isn’t seriously affiliated with either party. The only things that can be said about The Donald are that he is (periodically) exorbitantly rich and that he wants to investigate Obama’s birth certificate.
If this yahoo can make a serious run for President, the GOP party structure is done for. You’re not a real political party if your leading candidate is some rich guy rabble rouser on a reality TV show.
Jim C.
This is, not sarcastically, great news for Obama.
These birther idiots always ask, “if Obama is a natural born American citizen then why hasn’t he shown the longform birth certificate”.
The answer is, Obama doesn’t WANT this issue to go away. The crazier the Republican primary is, the easier it will be for Obama to seize the political center and cruise to reelection. With embrace of birtherism becoming a litmus test style requirement for GOP primary voters, Obama would be doing the GOP candidates a huge favor if he could somehow make this go away. (Which I doubt he could. We’re not dealing with rational people here.)
Obama isn’t going to have a credible primary opponent. He can stay above the fray for months while the GOP has to do their little freak-show primary.
Trump doing his little grandstanding dance of embracing birtherism full throttle is great news. It means that the rest of the candidates will as well. When the time is right, Obama – who will have DEEP pockets – will pound into the skulls of all the low-information idiots out there just how crazy whomever the Republicans serve up is.
So by all means, more GOP crazy please!
And yes, people who say that this issue is driven by racism are completely correct. If Obama was white, there’s no way this issue would still linger. That’s ALSO a good thing. As Atwater said, Americans aren’t comfortable anymore with open racism. And birtherism isn’t well hidden racism. It will only take a couple of subtle pokes at the right time to make people feel very uncomfortable with the ugliness that will come from the GOP primary and the right.
Villago Delenda Est
@Hermione Granger-Weasley:
DING DING DING DING DING!
The national media is about generating attention to their presentations that they can then sell to advertisers for the big bucks.
Fight promotion is what it is all about. Which is why actual questions on policy fall by the wayside. They want personalities going after it…that attracts eyeballs. Guys discussing policy…not so much. Not good for ratings, corporate masters are displeased, “reporter” is back working at the Ocka-Loca Dinner Theater.
WereBear
I’ll bet you ask the typical teabagger about Pawlenty, and you’ll get a blank look.
Trump has name recognition; and in the absence of anything else, I can see that getting his name checked in the primaries.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
birther is the new reagan?
i would love for every gop candidate to have to espouse an article of faith about how it is a legitimate question or however they put it….like they all had to kiss reagan’s ass in past primaries.
sadly, i don’t think that is what they are doing. this is all rope-a-dope. they have been full on batshit for a long time…they have lowered expectations, and i am sure many people think a far right candidate stands no shot.
the knock out would be a reasonable sensible(in the media simulacrum sense), gop. when they beat back the crazy. tuesday by tuesday, they will be hailed for their sanity, and for holding off the much worse extremes, they will be the hero, in other words….
this is all prelude.
don’t believe the hype, the gop wants the world to think they are crazy, so their new guy can show how great he is, and how sane he is, and you know the dipshits will buy it.
Villago Delenda Est
@Zifnab:
Every single time on someone else’s money…starting with the money he inherited at the very beginning.
This is a guy who led a casino into bankruptcy, mind you.
Kane
In a roundabout kind of way, Trump is actually helping. First, by virtue of his repeating the birther conspiracy, he is making the issue a part of the GOP platform whether they like it or not. Wait until the GOP debates when all of the candidates are asked to raise their hands when asked who questions the president’s birthplace. Don’t raise your hand, and you’ve suddenly marginalized the base and hurt your chances in the primary election. Raise your hand, and you’ve essentially hurt your prospects in the general election with moderates and independents.
Secondly, by making the birther meme his own, Trump is essentially taking steam out of the Bachmann and Huckabee campaigns. They have worked hard to appeal to the birthers and to make them their base, yet Trump is smartly dividing the birther pie into smaller pieces.
Someone remind me to send Mr Trump a fruit basket.
Comrade DougJ
@steviez314:
The crazy 27% are the Republican primary voters. The single issue birthers are 27% of that 27%. Hence, crazification squared.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@arguingwithsignposts: Interfering with the narrative am I?
;)
Upper West
Crowley did not exactly go after Trump hammer and tongs in that interview. Pretty toothless interrogation.
(Gotta love the Donald — “I would rather talk about China.” Right)
malraux
@Elia Isquire:
That’s my guess. It’s not that R primary voters will vote for the birther; its that they will have the warm fuzzies for whichever person is strongest with the code words and dog whistles. It’s the “who would I like to have a beer with?” standard, not coherent policy or beliefs.
Chris
@Kane:
I wonder, if they lose the election, if they’ll accuse Trump of having messed it up and being a liberal plant.
Villago Delenda Est
@Upper West:
“I think this pattern is particularly attractive…the ornate gold trim will go perfectly with my bathroom fixtures”
aimai
I think it may be a mistake to see any of these polls as having any relevance at all for who will vote, or how they will vote. I think the kind of people who answer polls at all, in this day and age, want to “send a message” to someone, anyone. I think their answers are tied to tribal identities–“shibboleths” up above has it exactly right–but that this has little or nothign to do with how they will vote. Even in the period of heightened Palinism right after the last election when people were standing in line to buy her crappy book and vowing eternal identification with her a lot of people would answer both *yes, she is the future of the American people!* and also “Well, I don’t know if I’ll vote for her.”
People are like kids in a candy store when it comes to voting–there’s a long period when anything seems possible and they love, love, love the thought that all these important people are catering to them and appealing to them for their votes. As it gets time to choosing who to support people get pickier, and slightly cannier, and start demanding both more fealty to their pet fantasies and more practicality and across the board popularity.
I think its very possible that these poll answers are both spite filled and aspirational, rather than diagnostic.
aimai
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Comrade DougJ: umm…65% of GOP primary voters are birthers in the last poll I read. I bet more than 27% of them are single-issue on birtherism or Trump wouldn’t have got such a jump.
So isnt it crazification cubed? birthers x single-issue birthers x primary voters?
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@aimai: well no….its the difference between local and global. A birther candidate could easily win the GOP nomination. The enthusiam factor is part of polling potential primary voters. But a pureform birther can never be a viable contender for the presidential election.
Chris
@Elia Isquire:
Paul Krugman had an article that went into this last February (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/agnotology/). The two articles he links to are worth reading too.
David in NY
@Dave:
I’d have said the same thing about banks, but that turned out to be pretty easy. How these guys screw up, after being given a license to print money, is beyond me.
Kane
@Chris:
Perhaps Trump is a Romney plant. Trump is doing what Romney can’t – he’s taking steam away from the whackos and in the process eliminating them from the picture. Once the tea partiers have lost their favs, Trump can bow out as Romney becomes their default candidate.
Bulworth
That’s some sweet awesome sauce there.
I’m more than happy the reichwing wants to continue with this line of skulldullgery.
malraux
@Jim C.:
I dunno, he’s released all the information he can, at least on this issue. There is the wild stuff about how he hasn’t released his grade school report cards or whatever. But on the main issue, HI doesn’t send out copies of the long form anymore, just the birth certificate that he’s released; in fact, way back he let World Nut Daily personally examine the BC and they said it was valid.
The whole controversy is the fact that Obama is a democrat and black and beat their candidate.
JGabriel
Jake Tapper:
Whoa. Tapper just called 37% of self-identified Republicans “non-reality based”. My opinion of Tapper just shot up 50%.
How long before the village starts calling him shrill?
.
arguingwithsignposts
@Hermione Granger-Weasley:
ftfy.
when did EDK espouse birtherism, you sick little stalker?
PurpleGirl
@Zifnab:
Yes, Yes, YES! Best description of him that this native New Yorker has seen of him.
Villago Delenda Est
@malraux:
Didn’t just beat him, but beat him soundly like a redheaded stepchild. Mind you, McCain was the “compromise” GOP candidate, the last of the “my turn” Republicans. Early on in 2008, I thought McCain was dead meat, because the crazies hated him almost as much as they hate Obama now.
Tsulagi
@Zifnab: Pretty much. Except for this…
Actually, if you look down the list of R-cans on that CNN poll, Trump stands out as probably the sanest, or at least among the top, and likely the most principled. Given the crop, maybe he’s picking up the saner R-voter while selling birfer to the loon base to gain teabagger cred. The guy is a salesman.
And ya know, if the economy continues to be weak, goes sideways or declines, unemployment continues at 8+ now helped along by spending cuts with more to come, and gas hits $5 later next year, you just might hear this song at the next inaugural bash…money, Money, MONEY!!…
aimai
@Tsulagi:
Well, how does Trump differ from those other perennial also rans like Steve Forbes, Ross Perot (though he ran on his own ticket), Michael Huffington, Bloomberg (though I think he hasn’t thrown his hat in for the presidency yet)…etc…etc… Even Mitt Romney, although he at least took at turn through elected office to get there, is a millionaire first and a political actor second. Trump’s just another in a fairly long line of assholes who think their personal wealth entitles them to lecture other people.
aimai
aimai
Sorry, Tsulagi, that should actually have been directed at Zifnab. I agree with you.
aimai
Paul in KY
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: Stephen is our leader. Jon is a spokesman.
NonyNony
@Kane:
This … is the second best explanation for Trump’s behavior that I’ve run across.
I still maintain that the best explanation is that Trump is seeing the free advertising and ability to live the high life on other people’s money during the political campaign. As a grifter, Trump is exponentially more experienced and more capable than the family Palin, and look how well they’ve done for themselves. Trump should be able to do quite well for a year or so – and perhaps he’ll get another book deal out of it.
But playing the rodeo clown for Romney to drag the crazies off the other candidates and keep their tallies low. Hmm. I need to give that some thought.
Paul in KY
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: Presidential primary elections usually draw more voters than a primary election for a House seat (for example). So they will be diluted somewhat (IMO).
catclub
@scav: Are you suggesting that Mike Huckabee is NOT … dreamy?
Roger Moore
@Suck It Up!:
But Sarah Palin is a Real American(TM), while Stanley Dunham was an Evil Liberal(TM). That means Palin gets a free pass for even the craziest lies, while obvious truths about Dunham are ignored. It also helps that Palin is around to defend herself, while Dunham is dead.
Cat Lady
The GOP primaries and debates are going to be fucking epic.
That is all.
Zifnab
@Tsulagi:
But he’s not the insider party choice. In ’96, Bob Dole glad-handed all the right Republican leaders and assumed the mantle of Presidential nominee. In ’00, Bush was more-or-less hand picked by the energy lobby and the Republican Governors.
But Trump isn’t a party insider. If he can win a primary or two at the beginning of the race, his ascendancy will indicate that the Republican Political Machine has slipped some serious gears.
He’s not the RNC pick. Not by a long shot. That’s the break-down I’m referring to.
Villago Delenda Est
@catclub:
Look, Mittens Romney is the guy who has shoulders you can land a 737 on…
Morbo
@Villago Delenda Est: Donald Trump’s two step guide to becoming a millionaire:
1) Start with $100 million.
2) Do what Donald Trump does.
WereBear
I do feel that the loon-flavored team of McCain/Palin really helped the Center choose instead a rather unlikely candidate; not just because he was African American, but also little known on the national stage.
The more the Republicans play up their crazy primary candidates, the better I like it.
salacious crumb
@JGabriel: Jake Tapper is an idiot….i dont care what Tea Partiers think of him, but he was on this website i think last week bitching about how we werent giving him a fair break because he wrote a few anti-war articles in Salon (oh how so bold of him). Now that he is part part of the establishment, its pretty much assured that if Tea Partiers ask him to suck dick, he will ask how long.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@arguingwithsignposts:
dude, that is why i got banned at LoOG.
I objected to EDK telling the birthers they weren’t really racists and the fetus=slave people they weren’t really anti-choice and the creationists they weren’t really anti-science retards.
EDK PANDERS to his audience.
That is who he is.
I’m not stalking EDK. Trust me, I bin stalked.
I am trolling EDK.
Just like DougJ is right here.
ABT.
Roger Moore
@Chris:
The only reason I have a hard time believing that Trump is a liberal plant is because the liberals aren’t well enough organized to pull something like that off. That and Trump is too much of an egotist to keep up the act for that long. I’m inclined to follow the people who think this is a big Trump ego trip/advertizing campaign for his TV show- at which it appears to be succeeding beyond reasonable expectations.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@salacious crumb:
nah, hes jus’ a fight promoter.
Classic Tapper.
President Obama Called You Teabaggers!
calling all toasters
You’re overlooking a big factor in The Donald’s popularity: he fires people on TV. If there’s anything that get the GOP panties wet, it’s people getting fired.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@AWS
oh, and i forgot EDK telling the DOMA /DADT people they weren’t really homophobes and all that defense of straight marriage crapology.
sheesh.
I hate remembering my transition from conservative to liberal.
It was brutal.
>:(
Jay in Oregon
@eastriver:
That’s the fun part of whacko conspiracy theories; any evidence to the contrary is merely proof of a coverup.
Thousands of wingnuts will instantly become experts in Hawaiian public records, and any typo or omission on the document will only serve as proof of a forgery (because no one ever makes mistakes on authentic documents, ever). Birthers will demand to know why Hawaii took so long to release the long-form birth certificate? And if they’re not allowed to release those records, as we were told over and over again during the election, then why are they releasing them now?
Failing that, the birthers will move the goalposts — that’s where the whole “long-form certificate” nonsense came from in the first place, because the Certificate of Live Birth that would be completely legal and acceptable proof of citizenship for any other job in the country wasn’t good enough for them.
dogwood
@malraux:
Stop talking about “long form” birth certificates. There is no such thing. Its a term made up by birthers and it disgusts me when liberals use it. It’s pretty hypocritical to complain about Obama ceding rhetorical ground to the right when your willing to use language fabricated by by the furthest right. Long form birth certificates are a made up concept. When a child is born the hospital sends the relevant data to the Bureau of Vital Statistics where it is permanently stored. When a citizen needs a birth certificate he applies to the state and receives an official copy of the data the state has on file. The original data the state receives does not belong to the citizen. He cannot release it. That’s the “long” and short of it.
arguingwithsignposts
@Hermione Granger-Weasley:
m_c, you didn’t transfer from conservative to lib, you just transfered from one fucked up fundamentalism to another. You have been called out on so much bullshit non-truth here it’s not even funny. But keep fuckin’ that chicken, young one. perhaps some day we can say “our matoko is learnin'”
see what I did there, cudlip?
Bubblegum Tate
@Jim C.:
That’s Karl Rove’s view too, oddly enough, though of course he frames it as the dirtiest of dirty liberal tricks.
mistersnrub
Trump is angling to be the all-American Silvio Berlusconi. This whole farce reminds me of Slavoj Zizek’s piece on authoritarian capitalism.
aimai
@dogwood:
Yes, and another important thing–birth certificates, even “offical” ones with seals, are not all one thing. I had multiple official copies of my first daughter’s birth certificate, made at the time of her birth in 1996 because I knew I’d need copies later and we might have moved out of state. About ten years later when I applied to get a passport for her it turned out they’d changed the printing format and the issuing format so our formerly legal, embossed, paid for “official” copies were no longer accepted. They don’t look anything like the new official ones. The idea that there is some real “thing” a long form, coffee spotted, parchment like piece of paper that proves the birth is absurd. All there is are copies of information.
aimai
Roger Moore
@Zifnab:
Sorry, but the only way you can fail to realize that the Republican Machine has slipped a few notches is if you haven’t been paying attention for the past couple of years. Their inability to shove the Tea Party back into the bag should be proof enough that they’re no longer in control of the situation.
Sapheriel
crazification factor watch:
yglesias posted about a poll that, among other things, showed that 28% of people thought the military has too little political power.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@arguingwithsignposts:
lawl, I just can’t stop.
Calouste
@Morbo
Donald Trump’s two step guide to becoming worth 100 million dollars:
1) Inherit 400 million dollars from your daddy
2) Lose 75% of it
kay
I don’t buy that. They’ve been shoving the birther nonsense at us for 3 years. I bothered to read the long, complicated requirements for citizenship (which was a waste of time, and I regret doing it) and all those years I never once heard that the former GOP governor of Hawaii actually pursued this and debunked it.
Why didn’t I hear that on major media? It happened. Why didn’t they just report that?
It’s all you have to say. They didn’t. Because it’s a profitable issue to keep on the table for them.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Paul in KY: the polls that show birtherism at 65% ARE from prospective presidential primary voters.
No dilution here.
Distillation.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@kay:
Exactly. The Village wants an even match, so they level the playing field for conservatives.
Sells more tickets than a shut-out.
pluege
no bridge is too far for US corporate media when it comes to dissing or casting aspersions on democrats. birtherism was already dead, but they jumped in a nanosecond when trump made a spark again.
arguingwithsignposts
@Hermione Granger-Weasley:
“Our” m_c is not learning.
On another note, it’s perhaps worthwhile to compare percent of GOP voters to percent of population, because percentages tend to obscure things if they are presented excluded from other factors.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@arguingwithsignposts:
wallah. You want moi to learn to pander?
Cuz I don’t roll that way.
not nevah.
;)
Hermione Granger-Idiotley
WAI OODA WEC EDK Free Market Fairys Distributed Jesusland. ABT.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@pluege:
its not dead. Theres more birthers than ever. Rove and the GOP elites have been trying to kill it for a year, CPAC to CPAC.
Its undead.
Its immortal. They can’t kill it off because it is subliminated racism in the New Conferate Republican Party.
;)
Paul in KY
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: I wonder how precise the polls are? IMO, if the +/- is over 2, then they aren’t that accurate.
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Hermione Granger-Idiotley:
i c u AWS.
Is that sockpuppetting?
;)
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Paul in KY: margin of error is +/- 4% usually in political polling.
It is dependent on sample size.
;)
Paul in KY
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: No shit on it being dependent on sample size. Therefore, I say a +/- 4 poll is unreliable. Cudlip ;-)
Hermione Granger-Weasley
@Paul in KY: well, you could go with nonparametrics like wilcoxon or komolgorov-smirnoff or spearman’s. But political pollsters usually dont have the maffs for that.
;)
Paul in KY
@Hermione Granger-Weasley: I’d say I don’t have the maffs either. From my old poli-sci classes, I think you need a sample of close to 2,000 to get a +/- of 2 or less.