Who knows if Donald Trump will run for president or not, but he’s at least scared some of the Republican establishment into thinking that he might. The Broder in me thinks that Trump won’t actually go to all those cow judging contests and that that will do him in as a candidate if he does run. Steve M. wonders if we might be living in a post-pancake breakfast world now:
But can’t you see him magisterially propelling himself into an Iowa state fair, or down a main street in small-town New Hampshire, in a motorcade of Escalades? And are we really sure that couldn’t work — winning the nomination, by being the macher, the mack, the big pimp?
[….]I just don’t know. I’ve always heard that campaigning in the early states was an exercise in humility — the pigshit on your Gucci loafers at the Iowa state fair and all that. But is it different now on the right? Does the base want to prostrate itself before a plutocrat overlord, and not hold him to the same standards as mere mortals?
Who can say? I think that with no establishment support and no ability to garner local endorsements, you can’t be a serious player in a primary.
(been sitting on this post title forever, my favorite line from my all-time favorite song)
Rosalita
typo first sentence Doug
gnomedad
For a million pounds, I won’t
interrupt this sketchrun for president.Comrade DougJ
@Rosalita:
Thanks. Sorry to go all Yglesias on your asses the last few days.
Bruce S
“The Broder in me…”
An amiable parasite, until it starts eating your brain.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
Normally I’d dismiss out of hand any concept of a Comb-over campaign for presidency. But two things have happened in the last 11 years that make me second guess that thought:
1) George W Bush was elected President not once but twice, and
2) We elected a black man as President.
I didn’t think either possible in my lifetime so all bets are off.
Rosalita
Does the base want to prostrate itself before a plutocrat overlord, and not hold him to the same standards as mere mortals?
Seems like it. And what they’d get is a runaway train of guy doing whatever he wants.
Zifnab
That’s my feeling too. It’s the reason I think McCain rose to the top of the pile in ’08, while Romney floundered and Giuliani flopped. And it’s the reason I’d keep an eye on Huckabee, assuming he tries again this year.
But what is Donald Trump’s demographic? His Apprentice fan-base? The Birthers? He’s never run for office before. I’m not sure where he’s supposed to get his votes from. I mean, I’m not discounting the possibility that Trump could win based on being the “None of the Above” candidate favored by disgruntled veteran voters and waves of fanbois. I just don’t see the RNC and the local party chapters rallying around him.
Ana Gama
Does the base want to prostrate itself before a plutocrat overlord, and not hold him to the same standards as mere mortals?
They would beatify Palin if they could.
R. Johnston
The thing that really scares the Republican establishment is that Trump is in reality no crazier or more ridiculous than anyone else in the Republican field, and when Pawlenty, Romney, and the rest of the looney brigade don’t actually disagree with Trump about anything people might actually figure this out.
If Trump were just a joke with some teabagger support the Republican establishment wouldn’t care; the fact that Trump reflects the substance of the Republican establishment without cleaning up nice is what’s got ’em running for the hills.
Dennis SGMM
Am I the only one who thinks that Trump has nothing to lose by pushing his candidacy all the way? For fuck’s sake, it gives him free publicity and adds to his gravitas whether we like it or not. Yes, he’s an asshole and a phony – since when does that disqualify anyone to run for, and possibly win, the presidency?
dj spellchecka
this post wins the internet for me doug….the mere thought of his trumpness wandering within a county mile of a cow-pie anywhere is quite the image..
on the other hand, seeing you have to explain your headline really makes me feel old….do young ens really needed to be schooled in “exile on main street 101?”
cheers
Comrade DougJ
@dj spellchecka:
I’m afraid they do. Also too, though, putting up the link was an excuse to watch that video another three times.
BGinCHI
Two sides now to the GOP candidatapallooza:
1. Grifters
2. Career Politicians Who Rail Against Government
Who am I forgetting?
xian
Camper van Beethoven used to do a great live acoustic cover of Sweet Virginia…
dmsilev
@BGinCHI: Don’t forget the every-popular ‘all of the above’.
dms
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
As I see it the wildcard that makes forecasting the GOP primaries in 2012 based on past ones so difficult is: what is going to happen when the Dean 2004/Obama 2008 small donor fundraising model migrates to the GOP side?
In the past, cutting off the money spigot was how the power brokers in both parties culled the herd and set the terms of the Overton Window. But now, if a candidate can get the small donor fundraising ball rolling, it is going to be lot harder to choke them off and shut them up. It used to be that if you lost a few primaries in a row you got tossed on the ash-heap of history, at least for that round, unless you were very, very lucky (e.g. McCain in 2008). I think primary battles are going be much longer, more drawn out attritional affairs than they used to be because of this factor.
Bob Loblaw
I wonder if one simply needs an obsessive, hobby horse mindset to become a successful political blogger. Or is it just a comfort move in the face of an often baffling world?
Could you ever have seen yourself dedicating this much of your time to rumination on one Donald Trump, DougJ?
demz taters
@Dennis SGMM: It’s all about boosting his brand, no doubt.
cat48
His rhetoric has expanded to Obama’s intellect now. Supposedly he knows for certain that Obama always did poorly in school & only got into Harvard thru AFFIRMATIVE ACTION!
This shit literally makes me sick to my stomach. I’ve lived thru this shit once in the l960’s & ’70’s. Don’t know if I can take it again. Just takes my breath away.
Silver Owl
Trump is going to run just for the mere fact that his own ego will not let him accept people like Rove etc calling him a joke candidate. He won’t be able to stop himself. lol
Dennis SGMM
@demz taters:
Precisely. And what’s the worst thing that could happen to him, he gets elected? This is totally full of win for Trump.
maus
Why would he care? For all the gold leaf he’s got in his apartments, the guy’s never been classy.
MattR
@Silver Owl:
I am of the exact opposite conclusion. Trump is not gonna run because he has no desire to have his power constrained in all the ways that the President’s is (and which a coporate CEO is not). I have made the comment before, but this was the reason that Mike Bloomberg was interested in Mayor of NYC and is not interested in POTUS.
Brachiator
@Comrade DougJ:
The universe has collapsed on itself when a white guy is depicted approvingly as a “pimp” while the actual president of the United States is suspected of being all manner of baddie by fools and hysterics, despite leading a very bland life.
And, oh yeah, Trump ain’t going nowhere. He’s a poseur.
BGinCHI
Instead of Trump, how bout a post on Douche-Hat’s column from yesterday?
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/18/opinion/18douthat.html?_r=1
Jesus, fail at economics much, Ross?
MonkeyBoy
Maybe Trump seems himself as a Schwarzenegger type candidate.
Someone who was not part of the Republican establishment and whose candidacy was initially seen as a joke by many but won because he was a celebrity with a tough-guy image.
Culture of Truth
I’m beginnig to wonder if his putative campaign is not a joke; that is, a publicity stunt/negotiating ploy. I mean, he is half-crazy and a raging egomaniac, plus his tv show can’t last much longer. Maybe he really is running. Maybe.
JCT
Well in your scenario, Doug, he will certainly stand out from the rest of the imbeciles running because he doesn’t bother to pretend he’s one “of the people”. At this point that anti-message may resonate with the seemingly endless supply of low-info voters who seem as anxious as always to endorse people who will work against them.
And for the record, I agree that this is an enormous publicity stunt, but I am enjoying the rising freak-out on the right. Rove’s interview was hilarious. I’m curious to see when the Donald decides enough is enough. Will be hard to walk away from all the attention he is getting.
Tsulagi
He’s not going to run. Not really. Too many downsides to it for him. Might put some money into the early primaries just to stroke his ego.
Even foregoing kissing the baby calves at Iowa fairs, he wouldn’t put in time for the effort. That way if he comes in 2nd, 3rd, 10th or whatever, he can say he just didn’t have the time given his business demands to devote enough to win. If he were to come out on top in a primary or two, then he could say people just love The Donald. Ego boost. Then make some more money from sales of stupid off that.
But he won’t seriously run. Big downside would be if he went all in then lost the nomination or later the general. He couldn’t stand to be branded a Loser. And no matter how you try to spin it, a loss is a loss.
Biggest downside to him. Suppose the country goes bugfuck crazy and elects the guy. President Donald, the Combover in Chief. Can you see that guy putting all his assets into a blind trust? For someone else to run? No way.
4tehlulz
I’m starting to believe that this started as a troll show, but Trump is starting to believe his own press.
I suspect he’s thinking about it seriously now.
NonyNony
@MattR:
This.
The man would have to take a pay cut to be President. He’s not going to be President and he has no real intention of being President.
I’m of two minds about what he’s actually doing here. Mostly I think he’s working the “Trump brand” angle and living by the mantra of “all advertising is good advertising”. I mean the man has been making money for years now by being a ridiculous caricature of a corporate CEO – this is pretty much the same thing. He gets people talking about him, drives up the ratings on his show to try to get it renewed, maybe sells some books. And what does he trade on to do it – his reputation? He might as well be trading away a bag of beans because being a ridiculous media whore IS his reputation.
OTOH – given that Trump’s persona actually has not been this right-wing extreme in the past, part of me believes he’s not just running an ad campaign for his next boardgame but that he’s actively trying to monkeywrench the GOP primary to point out just how ridiculous the GOP actually has become. Like something Stephen Colbert might do except that the Tea Partiers already worship him because he’s rich and he got his money through “business” and not “entertainment” so no matter what he’s said in the past he must really be a conservative. And no one really suspects that his dumpster dive into birtherism is an act because, hey, Trump’s a ridiculous person and it’s not like this is actually the most ridiculous thing he’s ever done.
So I dunno – could be a simple media event to get some free advertising, could be more than that. Regardless, the man certainly would not actually want to be President, and he would resign in sight of a year if he somehow managed to accidentally win the election.
Culture of Truth
@MattR: But Trump is not a normal person, or even a CEO – he’s been an egomanical wackjob for decades and his tv show is definitive evidence of his shameless desire for empty, fame, no matter how embarrassingly achieved, over having real power or accomplishing aything genuinely significant.
Such a person would naturally gravitate toward the Presidency you describe.
Violet
Didn’t he say he was going to announce his decision about running on the finale of “The Apprentice”? Anything for ratings!
Culture of Truth
Having said that, I still feel the President of the U.S. still has some real power and responsbility, and Trump would run away from all that.
eemom
Trump watchers may want to check out today’s (and likely all week’s) Doonesbury.
It’s worth seeing just for Trudeau’s drawing of the hair.
Dennis SGMM
@Brachiator:
As much as I generally respect your comments I must disagree. At the end of his first term G. W. Bush was manifestly an idiot to whom the voters had handed a loaded gun. He was re-elected anyway. A poseur, hell, that won’t be hard for the Low Information Voters to swallow. Half of them will vote for him just because he’s not the Islamofascist-Darky-Kenyan usurper.
The other half will vote for him because they recognize his name.
kdaug
@Violet:
Not quite. He announced that he would announce the date of his announcement on the finale.
Think?
Culture of Truth
A Donald Trump candidacy does not concern me, except to the extent that he makes people like Huckabee and Romney appear reasonable and moderate by comparison.
BudP
The title reminds me of aintitcoolnews.com’s review of the Love Guru…
If Shit got a Trump Campaign on it, Shit would wipe it off!
danimal
@NonyNony: I truly believe Ross Perot played the spoiler role in 1992 in order to deny the GOP a win (probably based on personal, rather than policy grounds) and that, similarly, Trump may be in the race to be a spoiler.
Perot “quit” the race as soon as he got a lead in the polls, then reentered the race after it appeared that Clinton and Bush were running neck and neck. Maybe Trump has a personal or political ax to grind; it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. He could draw a significant number of semi-conservative voters away from the GOP; he’s not likely to dent Obama’s base vote in the least.
Interesting days ahead.
JFitz
Man, the magnitude of that combover is just staggering. Imagine the
disciplinevanity it takes to get that thing up to speed every morning. And according to some combover expert I saw somewhere I think it might be combed over from 2 different directions. Holy crap. It’s the best damn combover money can buy, and I swear I can’t even look at it on the teevee without spewing my beverage. Don’t know about anyone else, but to me a combover makes you, ipso facto, a liar and a fake. In other words, the perfect Republican candidate.dollared
Doug, thanks for the title. Reminds me that I haven’t cleaned the house from top to bottom with EOMS cranked from start to finish since the second Perfect Little Girl arrived. Time to send the entire tribe out on a play date….
Bubblegum Tate
Well, if his candidacy was, in fact, a real thing, Trump just killed it by calling for universal health care.
gnomedad
Ah. I thought it was from South Pacific.
ChrisNYC
Trump won’t win the primary but I think he’s helping the eventual GOP nom, assuming that person is, as usual, an establishment GOPer. I had thought the so-far train wreck of a slate of possibles for the GOP nom was a no-doubt good for Obama and the Dems. Not so sure anymore.
Trump, Bachmann, etc can be out there for a couple more months. The “smarties” — Daniels, Huntsman, etc — can stay back, watch how things unfold, watch what gets people going and then come in, be a breath of fresh air (since they are not crazy), speak to the things that work while keeping the rhetoric under control and very possibly put up a solid challenge. The TP is over/never was. The GOP primary is not going to be decided by the folks in the Statue of Liberty outfits.
No wonder the WH released those love letters from Huntsman.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
I’ll be satisfied if Trump goes far enough down this rabbit hole that, when he is finally defeated either in the GOP primaries or in the general election, the New York Daily News leads with the headline: “America to Trump: You’re Fired!”.
dollared
@Bubblegum Tate: Whoa. Heads are gonna explode.
Meself, I just get up in the morning and pray for one more day of the Donald candidacy. As some point, he could nudge the Tea Party all the way over to where journalists view the TP as a sort of daytime Rocky Horror Midnight Show crowd.
That last tweet is just icing on the cake.
Anya
@MattR: They both know they can’t win?
danimal
@Bubblegum Tate: That quote was from 2000, so it’s null and void ancient history.
Because shut up, that’s why.
Comrade DougJ
@gnomedad:
I’m more of a Carousel person.
Culture of Truth
I predict the combover will gain self-awareness in 2012 and mount its own separate candidacy.
rumpole
Given what’s gone on between 00 and 11 you had to wait till now???
Also, too:
This one never did much for me. Try this one “The girl I’m to marry is a bow-legged sow.” Try to get that one in without pissing someone off.
Also, too
If you haven’t heard ’em, Dr. Dre did a remix of you can’t always get what you want, and the Neptunes remix of Sympathy for the Devil is freaking awesome.
That’s all I got.
Anya
@4tehlulz: This. And since Trump is a narcissist, and the WH (via Plouffe), Rove and other pundits have been mocking his candidacy, he might actually run to proof them wrong. I also think the silly poll numbers and being the new hero of the teabaggers might actually convince him that he can win.
honus
Saw Mick and the Stones sing that one, right here in my hometown in central Virginia in 2005.
Comrade DougJ
@rumpole:
I don’t like that song that much. A bit in the same vein, but brilliant is Factory Girl, waiting for a girl and her knees are much too fat.
Silver Owl
@MattR:
He’s greedy but he also has a huge ego. President of the United States, with all the contacts, attention and ability to convince republicans to do his bidding on nearly everything. Taking a hiatus for a short time for huge financial gains and another yearly salary for the rest of his life. Not sure the Donald can pass that up.
Brachiator
@Dennis SGMM:
Bush wasn’t the smartest tool in the shed, but he was not an idiot. Obviously, some voters perceived him to be tough. He also had that ruling class sheen, which dazzled some people. Note also, that because he was the eldest boy, he even felt more entitled than his smarter brother Jeb.
And I know people who actually, honestly, seriously said, “Dubya’s been born again. Jesus wouldn’t let him be wrong about anything.”
I don’t believe in “low information voters.” I don’t believe in fantasies that if only people understood they would vote the “right way.” Especially this political season, when people are actively exhorted to vote their basest fears.
Here’s the thing. Political figures associated with New York City just don’t do well when they try for presidential politics (Teddy Roosevelt being an exception).
I could see it if Trump were running for governor. But, like Sarah Palin, Trump’s absolute ignorance about national politics and foreign policy may not even get him past the GOP primary. Not even if he goes Charlie Sheen mode.
Obviously, this is all speculation. Let’s see what happens if he seriously makes a run for the nomination.
Also, I wonder how Trump gets along with Rupert Murdoch.
Gus
Trump’s not running. He’s doing what he can to drum up ratings for his horseshit reality TV show. It’s the man’s MO.
Omnes Omnibus
Love this song. Love this album. That is all.
Kilkee
I’m still betting the farm that he won’t get past any point when he needs to make suignificant financial disclosures. He’s worth much less than he claims, and since to him it’s the measure of all things, he’s fundamentally unwilling to go public with such a shameful secret, even in the service of an otherwise irresistible ego trip.
Turgidson
@BGinCHI:
Good lord that’s bad punditing. Post title is fitting for that column too. Is Douthat just there to make Brooks look like less of an idiot? If so, mission accomplished. Yeesh.
Steeplejack
Comrade DougJ:
Jeez, that shouldn’t even be your favorite song off that album. Unless it somehow brings back the Proustian recollection of the night you accidentally found yourself snorting coke with Bianca Jagger and Jerry Hall at Studio 54.
Nellcote
Yay! more Stones’ lyric titles :)
Here’s another one re: the Trump phenomenon
Bill Murray
@cat48:
we must see his long form report card. His permanent record must be long-playing, not the extended play remix. Jan Brewer’s working on the law now.
Steeplejack
@gnomedad:
Heh.
JRon
The wingnut base has ALWAYS wanted to prostrate itself before a plutocrat overlord.
I’m not sure why this would be different now. For all dubya’s acquired accent, his appeal was that he was a blueblood Texan, not salt of the earth. It’s why the wingers I knew hated Clinton. Clinton did not grow up in the ruling class and thus was not to be trusted. Same for Obama.
I’ll go further. Class mobility violates conservative dogma, even for the plebes.
Jim
The last time The Donald flirted with running for president, it was as a Democrat. Early in the campaign someone in the press made note that The Donald was germ phobic and avoided shaking hands with people. If true, the question then is the same as today, how can a politician glad handle to voters if he won’t shake their hands?
gnomedad
@JRon:
Wow. I think you’re on to something there.
MikeF
Trump reminds me of Carl Paladino, except I think Trump realizes how poorly suited he is to actually campaign. My guess is he lets the GOP establishment convince him to play kingmaker for someone like Daniels or Pawlenty.
Freaking awesome live performance of Sweet Virginia btw.