A few weeks ago, I was watching CNN and one of the anchors said “later, we’ll have thought on China from a man who served under four presidents”. They then showed a clip of David Gergen saying (I’m not making this up) “I think that it’s clear that in this century, with its large population, China will be one of the most important countries in the entire international community” with that slow fucked-up Bob-Woodward-meets-Kermit-The-Frog way of talking he has (it took him about 40 seconds to say it).
This was to promote the segment, so it must have been one of the more interesting things Gergen said.
Who is the audience for this stuff? Why is David Gergen on tv at all? Honestly, sometimes I can see why people watch Fox over CNN, at least they speak quickly and yell at each other.
It’s not like the Gergenites are right about stuff either. A recent study found that Paul Krugman was the most accurate pundit prognosticator and that Gergen’s twin David Broder was largely inaccurate.
Elizabelle
Last line of the Poynter story:
Don’t know why, but I am laughing about this.
Brachiator
Hey, doncha know, All the Young Dudes, Carry the news …
People like Gergen are on tv because they are media friendly reliables. They can be reached at a moment’s notice, can babble on without hesitation, and offer easily digestible empty calorie nuggets of punditry.
Phil Perspective
Stop kicking a dead man when he’s down!!!
MagicPanda
Sorry to go OT, but…
I’m having a discussion with someone about Megan McArdle and I seem to remember her saying something completely wrong, and then later, when caught, saying something almost as absurd as “not intended to be a factual statement”
Unfortunately, I can’t remember the details of that particular episode of mendacity.
Anyone? Anyone?
AAA Bonds
China: is it a country? Does it have a lot of people? Do they buy things?
Answers to these questions and more after the break!
Elizabelle
Immediately obvious: the most accurate predictors were liberals and/or Democrats. They live in a fact-based world.
But: why was Sen. Carl Levin (D-Michigan) so far off base? What was he saying during 2007-08?
Doug Harlan J
@MagicPanda:
There is “that was a hypothetical not a statistic” and “technically true but collectively nonsense”.
Murc
@MagicPanda:
You’d actually need to narrow that down. That’s the Standard McMegan Innumeracy Maneuver; she’ll get a statistic or data point or other verifiable fact wildly wrong (or misinterpret it in a glaringly obvious way), build an argument off it, and then when someone points out that her edifice rests on sand, she will huff angrily and say how even if the numbers are wrong her argument is still right, dammit, and anyway the numbers weren’t meant to be taken seriously, they were just a sidebar.
Happens a lot.
Villago Delenda Est
I love David Gergen.
His intuitive grasp of the obvious amazes me.
Elizabelle
Why doesn’t the Administration listen more to Paul Krugman?
Maybe it’s personalities (Larry Summers vs. the world, whatever), but Krugman has been right about the stimulus and so much else.
Any chance his ideas will get a fairer hearing by Obama and crew going forward? What do you think?
xochi
Senior citizens are the major market for TV news, so slow talking pseudo-centrists like Gergen are ideal mouthpieces.
The Other Chuck
@MagicPanda:
“Not intended to be a factual statement” is a coinage of John Kyl, with respect to his statements on Planned Parenthood. Which he later had erased from the Congressional Record; he’s still working on the whole intertoobs thing. And even when they admit it to our faces, the feckless cowardly shitstains in the press won’t call it what it is: lying.
(FYI, the phrase is eminently googlable)
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@MagicPanda: One possible one is that she got her conclusion wrong because she had some kind of stomach problem, which led to the “My Calculator has Gastritis” tag.
MagicPanda
@Doug Harlan J: Yes, it was the “hypothetical, not a statistic” that I was thinking about. Thanks!
@Murc: I agree that she gets numbers wrong a lot. I just had a memory of her using a ridiculous statement once (referenced above) when called on it.
@The Other Chuck: Yes, I know. I was just saying that McMegan once said something that reminded me of the famous Kyl statement.
Thanks everyone!
AAA Bonds
@Elizabelle:
If the statements reviewed had anything to do with Michigan’s economy, I can guess why he might have painted a rosier picture than history revealed.
Gus
I’ll give Gergen this. During the 2008 Presidential campaign, he came out and said that people calling Obama “foreign” and “Arab” were racist. I know, duh, but no one else on the panel would own up to that.
Cat Lady
Yesterday I watched two minutes of Wolf Blitzer interviewing Gloria Borger, and watched 1 minute of Morning Ho until Mika started reading Joe Scar a Liz Cheney email to her from her blackberry. Their audience is really only each other, and their only purpose is to let us know we’re not as informed as them, unironically.
Bob Loblaw
@Elizabelle:
No, he’s a dick. And the administration values academic collegiality and teamwork.
The world isn’t an episode of House.
Villago Delenda Est
@Gus:
Like I said. An intuitive grasp of the obvious.
NonyNony
@Elizabelle:
Because Krugman’s ideas are too far to the left for the Administration to consider.
Bob Loblaw’s idea would have merit if Larry Summers – who is a ginormous asshole – weren’t part of “the team”. Obama can work with assholes, but he doesn’t work with people who don’t fit his centrist view of how government should operate. Krugman is off-center, so he’s not going to get promoted in the WH, even when he’s right.
Anoniminous
Decades ago Harlan Ellison wrote, “TV is a dead rat in a Lucite® block.”
TV “experts” (sic) and pundits are there to provide the Lucite®. The dead rat is, of course, the anchor.
Surly Duff
Who cares about accuracy? I want my preditions to be incorrect but bland and mealy-mouthed, not accurate and shrill.
Martin
@Elizabelle: Nobody gives a shit if you’re right if you can’t get anything done. Results matter. Krugman is right a lot of the time, and I’m sure the administration does listen to him, but his solutions often won’t get even half of the Dems in Congress to buy in, let alone whatever is needed to pass.
Arrik
@Bob Loblaw:
Wow, I guess being a collegial team player always trumps being right.
Martin
@NonyNony: Summers has been gone for some time now.
And the administration has limited ability to implement much of what Krugman proposes. Most of it needs to either win the Fed or Congress. The one place where Obama has gone out on a limb is with Warren, which puts him well to the left of nearly all involved.
Bob Loblaw
@Arrik:
In D.C.
Do you know what happens to people in Washington who go off message and insult the wrong constituents? They don’t work in Washington any more.
Krugman would never keep his tongue to congressman, or bankers, or Fed or Treasury officials, or even the President himself. He’s made his entire editorial career based on that fact. Half of all administration work is invariably acting the part and staying in your lane.
MonkeyBoy
@xochi:
Actually I think the official marketing cutoff is around 55. Many men over 55 don’t watch much TV other than news/pundit-talk-shows. That means such shows are tailored to be attractive to such a market segment because that is the only crack advertisers have at them. Which then explains why so many guests slew to the type that older conservative white guys appreciate.
Keith
CNN’s tendency to grind a story into the grouhd (and beyond) *almost* drives me to Fox. Thank God for Obama because I was going to be physically ill if I even caught even a glimpse of William/Kate when flipping channels due to the ridiculously overdone coverage CNN did. I mean, how many f’n segments did they need to do about the double kiss? And how many shows was Piers Morgan going to devote to this shit (AFTER the wedding!!) if OBL didn’t die?
And what sucks is that they do this CONSTANTLY.
gordon schumway
@Martin:
The administration does not need Congress or the Fed approval to adopt Krugman’s constant suggestion to stop accepting the far-right’s framing of issues, e.g. the deficit.
Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937
I don’t get cable at home so don’t normally watch it but I stayed at hotel this last weekend. They were interviewing Trump on CNN. I couldn’t stop laughing – it was like SNL. I was a bit stoned so that helped. Is cable news always like this? What a pile of sh*t!!
HyperIon
tbogg has been off his game recently.
Citizen_X
@Elizabelle: I lol’d at that too.
kdaug
@Bob Loblaw: I think y’all are missing the forest for the trees.
Obama’s had Krugman to the WH – he does listen to him.
But Krugman’s an economist, Obama’s a politician.
Krugman was right that a larger stimulus was needed.
Obama was right that there was no way that was going to happen.
ChrisNYC
I like David Gergen. I didn’t see this China thing but he usually talks about what he knows, the work he actually did, i.e. the way the White House works, the internal and external politics of being President. Disagree that he’s like Broder — Broder’s thing, to me, was his vision of the way DC, the whole shebang, *should* work (though of course Broder never actually umm did the job of legislating or being the exec). Gergen doesn’t scold.
Poopyman
@HyperIon: TBogg has had dog issues (and who knows what else) lately, so I’m cutting him a lot of slack.
Parallel 5ths (Jewish Steel)
@Bob Loblaw:
I know some talented assholes who can’t seem to ever get a band or project off the ground. Contrast with affable punters who are always doing something interesting. A point I drive home to my students. You actually don’t have to be much more than competent. I assume this is the way it works everywhere.
Stillwater
@Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937: I saw that interview too. Trump got so pissed and flustered at John King I thought he was gonna yell ‘You’re fired!’ just like an angry old ignorant white racist would.
Shoemaker-Levy 9
1. Other peddlers of conventional wisdom in the mainstream journalism industry.
2. People who happen to stop at CNN for a couple of minutes while surfing past Lifetime and FX.
3. Liberal bloggers looking for something to blog about.
Add those three numbers up and you get CNN’s ratings.
MikeJ
@Shoemaker-Levy 9: 4.People locked in an airport, unable to escape.
Evan Klondar
Hi! I’m one of the authors of the study that found Krugman was among the best prongosticators and Levin was among the worst. First of all, it’s super-cool to see the study getting all of this attention and I’d like to thank DougJ for linking to it.
Second, a few people wondered how Levin was so bad. He made a bunch of predictions on basically the same topic: the Obama/Clinton primary election and how Michigan and Florida would handle the delegate situation. And he got it almost totally wrong. Since this was the main reason he was on the Sunday morning talk shows during that period, it hurt his rating.
He did, however, get a prediction about Iraq right.
I’ll keep an eye on this discussion thread, so if anyone wants to ask any questions or needs clarification, I’d be happy to converse.
PeakVT
@Citizen_X: It would be funnier if more of our politicians were not lawyers.
Martin
@gordon schumway: You’re wrong on the deficit. The cost to service the debt is roughly the same as the Federal cost of Medicaid. If interest rates rise, the cost of debt service will soar, and even with increasing tax rates, we’re going to be cutting programs. And no, defense won’t be enough to get us there either – debt service is already half the Pentagon’s budget.
I understand the argument about deficit spending to boost the economy, but like the laffer curve, you reach a point where the cost exceed the benefit. We’re pretty close to that point. The economy is picking up. Much of the stimulus that worked a year or two ago won’t work now. Some still will (unemployment benefits, etc.) and should continue, but ‘deficits don’t matter’ is Cheney’s position. It shouldn’t be yours.
Mnemosyne
@MagicPanda:
“Not intended to be a factual statement” was what Eric Cantor’s (I think) pressbot said after Cantor claimed in a speech on the floor of the House that 90 percent of what Planned Parenthood does is abortions. In reality, it’s more like 5 percent, but apparently Cantor didn’t mean it to be a factual statement anyway.
(It may not have been Cantor, but it was some powerful Republican asshole speaking in the House.)
WyldPirate
@kdaug:
Some of Krugman’s point is the same as many other Obama critics–he’s centrist aqnd he negotiates by meeting in the middle with right wing radicals from Jump St.
Shoemaker-Levy 9
@MikeJ:
Good point.
“I just came from the airport and my experience was awful.”
“Going through security?”
“No, my flight was delayed and I had to watch David Gergen.”
Poopyman
@Mnemosyne: Kyl. In the Senate.
(“With the candlestick” I want to add.)
Elizabelle
The underlying report was interesting.
Money quote #1, from page 49:
Money quote #2, on media prognosticators’ actual role, p. 52:
http://www.hamilton.edu/documents/Analysis-of-Forcast-Accuracy-in-the-Political-Media.pdf
James K. Polk, Esq.
I <3 Tbogg.
Get him Johnnie! I'll never have to go anywhere else for intemperate rhetoric.
Maybe Reddit.
eemom
@Poopyman: @Mnemosyne:
Kyl be nimble, Kyl be quick….
Eric Cantor is too fucking stupid to think of a comeback like that, lame as it was.
MBL
I want to know why all of you seem to think Deep Ones don’t deserve to be represented on TV just like everyone else.
(Seriously, close your eyes the next time he’s on TV. That gurgle-breathed voice can’t come from anyone not related to Dagon.)
daveNYC
That is funny. I wonder if that is because of the fact that if a person with a law degree is punditing, then maybe they’re just not that good at lawyering; or if it has something to do with the education you get in law school.
Maybe lawyers are trained to argue a point of view and pick the facts and elements of law that back that point of view.
Ellyn
I always ask myself the same thing. The guy is a reliable Republican CW spouter.
He’s presented as a reliable, objective voice, but his voice always sounds like the corporate right. Didn’t he used to be on The Newshour (another reliable Republican CW voice)?
WereBear
@Elizabelle: from report
Words I live by.
WereBear
Besides which; silly wabbit, pundits aren’t hired for their accuracy.
They are hired to push a point of view in a way that sounds plausible; and it doesn’t even have to last long, the way attention spans & television work together.
And you aren’t even made to pay attention… they just want you credulous and softened up for the advertisers pitch.
In fact, pundits who are actually smart and accurate will blow the whole deal.
Triassic Sands
That’s because Broder didn’t predict (based on facts), he wished (based on emotions).
Anoniminous
@Evan Klondar:
Have a deep interest in your research but need to read the paper before posing questions.
Dan
That one had me rolling on the floor!
gypsy howell
@Evan Klondar:
Since no one else has said it on this thread, great work Evan! And thanks for the clarification about Levin – I was wondering about that myself. I don’t pay that much attention to Levin to begin with, but I sure was wondering what he’d been yammering on about that would put him in such tremendously stupid company. Thanks for joining the thread.
Paul
First of all, let’s not encourage things to get MORE stupid. I hate it when people on TV are yelling: usually it’s done by the meanest and the least-informed. It plays to the whole Jerry Springer-thing and if you think FOX is the better for it, along with a over-excited delivery, you couldn’t be more wrong.
Now for Gergen. Besides being known to media types and being available, his working for both parties (usually noted in his introduction) is appealing to a main part of the audience. Guess what kids, a lot of the audience considers itself non-partisan and suspects that people on any given side always argue that side. Just how non-partisan Gergen is can be another matter, but in this case it’s the perception that appeals to that part of the audience that doesn’t see itself on any side and doesn’t read liberal blogs.
Evan Klondar
@Anoniminous: Sure–take your time!
And thanks, @gypsy howell!
SFAW
Well, when you start off “negotiations” with your absolute bottom-line figure, yeah, you won’t get what you want.
But, maybe, just once, if you negotiate smartly, you might get everything you want and more. It’s not guaranteed, but at least it provides a greater likelihood of success.
Or you can keep using the same old dumb-ass tactics, and keep taking it in the shorts.
beanbagfrog
Not everyone needs TV for blood-pumping outrage; it also serves as a soothing tonic to some. He has the extra advantage of being humbly, genially right-wing.
Elizabelle
@Evan Klondar:
How cool that you dropped by.
Interesting work, and I hope that you all will do a follow-up study. Realize that dealing with 2007-2008 was more finite — a candidate either won or lost office (for the most part; know you covered the economy etc. too) — but it would be fascinating to see who fared best in the healthcare and economic retooling debates.
Which have not played out yet. We got treated to some bombast, though.
I hope we get to do a discussion thread with you and your co-authors.
Great work. (PS: their report is pithier than you would expect! You will enjoy cruising.)
Are Talking Heads Blowing Hot Air?
An Analysis of the Accuracy
of Forecasts in the Political Media
http://www.hamilton.edu/documents/Analysis-of-Forcast-Accuracy-in-the-Political-Media.pdf
birthmarker
DougJ, you got a shoutout at GOS, under the Midday Open Thread. Congrats! (Sorry if this has already been pointed out above, dnr.)
sven
@Evan Klondar: Let me add my welcome! It is great of you to offer your ideas. (also, I’m impressed that our bat signal is working so well!) I will say that this line from your paper made me chuckle…
People make better predictions about subjects in which they are experts, very interesting! I sincerely hope that the other pundits and perhaps a few editorial directors read your article.
Congratulations on all of the attention your work is receiving!
johnny walker
That study also says Maureen Dowd is just behind Krugman. I’d be wary.
(Does she even make predictions? About what? Upcoming pop culture trends she plans on referencing?)
Jacob
This convinced me to buy a Balloon Juice t-shirt. In fact, you should put this on a Balloon Juice t-shirt.
Evan Klondar
Update: Here’s our data set, for those who are interested. http://www.hamilton.edu/news/polls/pundit