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You are here: Home / Politics / Politicans / David Brooks Giving A Seminar At The Aspen Institute / Then I guess she had to crash

Then I guess she had to crash

by DougJ|  May 13, 20118:33 pm| 80 Comments

This post is in: David Brooks Giving A Seminar At The Aspen Institute

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The commodity crash that happened last week hasn’t received much attention. It was a pretty big crash and what seems to have happened was that silver was very high, as a hedge against inflation, and the low yield on bonds means a lot of investors don’t think inflation is much of a risk right now. When silver plunged, it took other commodities with it. Felix Salmon:

[T]there was also a sense that this move had to happen. Between early February and early May, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell from 3.7% to less than 3.2%. That’s a massive move in Treasury yields, which indicates that market fears about inflation are abating significantly. At the same time, however, the price of silver — a classic inflation hedge — rose from $27 to $47. One of those two markets was wrong — and it was much more likely to be the thin silver market than the Treasuries. Silver was bound to fall in price; the only question was when.

When the inevitable silver crash happened, it took down other commodities like oil with it. That’s because of all the speculation in the market, and the fact that funds which speculate in silver tend to be exactly the same funds speculating in oil. When you get a big margin call in silver (and margin requirements on silver had just been raised before the crash), then you have to sell some of your other holdings to meet that call. And your most liquid holding is likely to be in oil.

Between the surprisingly positive conditions in Iceland, the austerity disaster in the EU (especially Ireland), and the fact that even the gold-hoarders are done waiting for the bond vigilantes, economic reality has a Keynesian bias these days.

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Reader Interactions

80Comments

  1. 1.

    Royston Vasey

    May 13, 2011 at 8:41 pm

    Phew! Just saw the “No Comments” at the foot of the post and thought “Oh noes! Even the Liberal Doug J has turned comments off!”.

    Turns out I was just one of the first to post.

    Glad to be wrong!

    /-)

  2. 2.

    Maude

    May 13, 2011 at 8:42 pm

    On Bloomberg radio, they said that it’s rare for all of the commodities to go down like this at once. One aspect is the dollar is stronger which effects the price of oil.
    There doesn’t seem to be a clear reason why this is happening. It is a scary ride because the price of food is going up so high.
    People are having trouble putting gas in their tanks due to the high price of gas.
    We are in an awful economic time. Rents and utilities are high. It is difficult.

  3. 3.

    MikeJ

    May 13, 2011 at 8:42 pm

    Was it you that linked the NYTimes story the other day?

  4. 4.

    MikeBoyScout

    May 13, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    Does anyone think the words “Keynesian” and “Kenyan” look and sound the same by coincidence?

    CONSPIRACY!!!

  5. 5.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    @MikeJ:

    No, I can’t read that stuff without Felix Salmon or Kthug guiding me through it.

  6. 6.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 8:44 pm

    @Maude:

    The commodity crash is good news, they were overpriced, they’re all a bit of a hedge against inflation and this really does mean that investors are less and less concerned about inflation.

  7. 7.

    mcd410x

    May 13, 2011 at 8:45 pm

    Shouldn’t the gold bubble burst at some point?

  8. 8.

    Cat Lady

    May 13, 2011 at 8:45 pm

    Has anyone seen Valentine and Winthorpe?

  9. 9.

    Corner Stone

    May 13, 2011 at 8:47 pm

    I think, you really kind of, kind of have to understand the Kenyan anti-colonialist mentality to understand the pump n dump in silver.

  10. 10.

    eemom

    May 13, 2011 at 8:48 pm

    doo doo doo doodededoo doo doo doo doodededoo doo doo doo doodededoo doo doo doo doodededoooooo………..

  11. 11.

    Corner Stone

    May 13, 2011 at 8:49 pm

    The silver market is so damn thin. It can be whipsawed by just a handful of players. As evidenced.

  12. 12.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 8:50 pm

    @eemom:

    Glad somebody caught it, I was happy with this title.

  13. 13.

    Baron Jrod of Keeblershire

    May 13, 2011 at 8:51 pm

    Somehow, some way, this just proves that we need to cut taxes.

  14. 14.

    Maude

    May 13, 2011 at 8:51 pm

    @Doug Harlan J:
    Oops, shoulda said that, but oil is still way too high. Around a hundred a barrel is going to cause great problems. The price of gas was $3.90, up from $3.87 last week.
    I want to see how this goes next week. Maybe a trend, maybe not.

  15. 15.

    fasteddie9318

    May 13, 2011 at 8:55 pm

    Does any of this really matter to anyone who isn’t investing in commodities? The austerity-for-thee assholes are going to keep screaming about the inflation monster coming to get us all, the Fed is going to keep pretending that it only has one mandate instead of two, and the press will lap it this crap up like it always does. Hard evidence that we’re not at risk of high inflation hasn’t swung the discussion before, so why would it now?

  16. 16.

    Roger Moore

    May 13, 2011 at 8:56 pm

    @mcd410x:

    Shouldn’t the gold bubble burst at some point?

    Yes, it should, and the sooner the better. It would be great if the popping of the bubble would shut up all the idiot goldbugs, but I don’t expect a simple thing like reality to have any effect on their delusions.

  17. 17.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 13, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    @Maude: You obviously don’t need to buy 93 octane. Shit’s been over $4 for a while now.

  18. 18.

    Baron Jrod of Keeblershire

    May 13, 2011 at 8:58 pm

    BTW, the ad I get at the bottom says:

    SILVER IS SOLID. Buy silver.

    Even Google AdSense is trolling us now.

  19. 19.

    AhabTRuler

    May 13, 2011 at 8:59 pm

    @Doug Harlan J: The thugster’s been on a tear lately. Gonna have to start calling him the VSP’s Cassandra.

  20. 20.

    jeffreyw

    May 13, 2011 at 9:00 pm

    Be alert for signs of inflation, folks.

  21. 21.

    Maude

    May 13, 2011 at 9:02 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:
    OMG. I ride the bus.
    I just checked, oil is $99 and change per barrel. This has to be speculation. The supply is up, demand is down.
    It should be down a lot more.
    What gets me is that this has real life effects. The rich don’t mind, they have the money, but for the rest, if someone is spending money on gas, that comes out of spending on other things.

  22. 22.

    Roger Moore

    May 13, 2011 at 9:03 pm

    @fasteddie9318:

    Does any of this really matter to anyone who isn’t investing in commodities?

    Yes, it does. Popping the commodity price bubbles should result in cheaper gas and food, which will be very helpful to poor people who have been struggling to keep food on the table and gas in the tank. It will also help to keep prices of other things that use commodities (i.e. manufactured goods) from going up in the longer term. So it’s an overall good thing for the vast majority of us who aren’t investing in commodities.

  23. 23.

    Citizen_X

    May 13, 2011 at 9:03 pm

    @Baron Jrod of Keeblershire:

    Somehow, some way, this just proves that we need to cut taxes.

    Well, what does the global investor community think? By a 2-to-1 majority, they think we need to raise taxes.

    These include guys who describe themselves as “right-of-center” (by a 3 to 1 margin over “left-of-center”) or “centrist,” and even includes the Obama-hating (64% disapproval) US investors!

    Edit: Being economic reality, this has nothing to do with US politics, obvs. So your original point stands.

  24. 24.

    eemom

    May 13, 2011 at 9:03 pm

    @Doug Harlan J:

    looove that song. It is an auditory Proustian madeleine of college memories.

  25. 25.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 9:05 pm

    Economics is a strange brew, laced up tight with some loose cause and effects and a shitload of human whims. I don’t think anyone knows what the fuck is going on right now, on daily manifestations of the stock market, or where it will lead. The one thing we can count on is people with money wanting to make more money.

    The folks that actually produce something other than virtual money, have been on the sidelines watching all this shit play out. A goodly number seem to be getting off those sidelines and investing in more production and the labor needed to make things. The fuckwads in the ivory tower ca sino that is Wall Street ought to all be rounded up, chained together, and sent to Alabama to cut Kudzu on the sides of highways.

  26. 26.

    nodakfarmboy

    May 13, 2011 at 9:06 pm

    @Roger Moore: Not so good for your friendly North Dakota wheat farmer, though. Such are the breaks of modern agribusiness. Now if it would just quit raining so we could start planting…

  27. 27.

    fasteddie9318

    May 13, 2011 at 9:07 pm

    @Roger Moore: Yeah, of course you’re right. I was too focused on the “nobody should be worried about inflation” angle, which almost certainly doesn’t matter because inflation hasn’t been a serious concern for a while now but we’re being told to fear it constantly. But cheaper oil obviously matters, assuming we get it.

  28. 28.

    Jim Newell

    May 13, 2011 at 9:08 pm

    This is the same core problem with the 2008 commodities bubble burst, right? Commodities speculation used to be heavily regulated and limited to a small amount of (necessary) players, but then at some point late in the financial dereg era, big financial firms were allowed to set up commodity index funds which poured a shitload of investors’ speculative money into the markets and tied the fortunes of one commodity with another. And only a few big swinging dicks on Wall Street, of course, knew how to play the game during boom and bust, having created it and all.

  29. 29.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 13, 2011 at 9:09 pm

    Brilliant Stuck! You know you don’t have to comment at all if you don’t know a fucking thing about the subject matter, right?

  30. 30.

    M-Pop

    May 13, 2011 at 9:10 pm

    OT and late to the party, but what the hell happened at ABL’s post? Comments turned off??? Please, I beseech you, Balloonies, please tell me the happity haps.

  31. 31.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 13, 2011 at 9:12 pm

    @M-Pop:

    OT and late to the party, but what the hell happened at ABL’s post? Comments turned off??? Please, I beseech you, Balloonies, please tell me the happity haps.

    ABL put the Balloon Juice community in timeout.

  32. 32.

    Bob Loblaw

    May 13, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    @General Stuck:

    What exactly is the difference between you and matoko at this point?

  33. 33.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    You know you don’t have to comment at all if you don’t know a fucking thing about the subject matter, right?

    You must know something about the subject matter then, to make such an observation. So lay it on us fuckhead, I am all ears.

    The subject matter for the intersection of politics and the economy is measured in whether jobs are being created. They are, and yes, I knew that.

  34. 34.

    Hugh

    May 13, 2011 at 9:16 pm

    OK I have to admit I didn’t read your post post this time but I’ve seen enough of your headings to suspect you and I are about the same age. I’ve gotten every one of your lyric references and have appreciated them all. All the young dudes no more but loving the attitude.

  35. 35.

    Maude

    May 13, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    @Jim Newell:
    It needs to be illegal to speculate in energy futures.
    This is hurting a lot of people and badly.

    @nodakfarmboy:
    A lot of crops are in trouble because of rain and flooding.
    But not in Texas, too dry.

  36. 36.

    gbear

    May 13, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    Valium would have helped…

  37. 37.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    @Jim Newell:

    Yes, that is about right I think.

    I may try to invest in gold shorts.

  38. 38.

    handy

    May 13, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    Is that what she’s calling it?

  39. 39.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    @Bob Loblaw:

    What’s the difference between you and a planetary sized asshole?

    Great contribution to the thread btw, maybe you and fuckhead can queer yet another thread with obsessions over ABL, or whatever empty little troll heads can conjure.

    Jobs are being created, you can’t troll that.

  40. 40.

    nodakfarmboy

    May 13, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    @Jim Newell: Yes. Harper’s Magazine actually had an interesting article about the increased involvement of big firms (Goldman Sachs for example) last year. Unfortunately, it’s behind a paywall now.

    The food bubble: How Wall Street starved millions and got away with it
    http://www.harpers.org/archive/2010/07/0083022

  41. 41.

    hhex65

    May 13, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    a hustle here and a hustle there
    pretty soon you’re talking about real money

  42. 42.

    Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal

    May 13, 2011 at 9:21 pm

    @Doug Harlan J:

    it doesn’t seem like they should be less concerned about inflation. maybe broad inflation is unlikely, but inflation in certain key areas like energy, is all that it takes to have the same effect. people can’t afford to work, or buy.

    even the stronger dollar is a lie. japan seems screwed to the post. and europe is worse off than we are. that doesn’t mean we are fundamentally stronger and poised to grow.

  43. 43.

    Bob Loblaw

    May 13, 2011 at 9:23 pm

    @General Stuck:

    What can I say, Stuck? Economics is a strange brew, laced up tight with some loose cause and effects and a shitload of human whims. I don’t think anyone knows what the fuck is going on right now, on daily manifestations of the stock market, or where it will lead. The one thing we can count on is people with money wanting to make more money. Lulz.

  44. 44.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 13, 2011 at 9:24 pm

    @handy:

    Is that what she’s calling it?

    No, that’s what I called it.

    And I should say I don’t have a problem with it, despite being the biggest proponent for free speech this site has ever had. If people can’t show a modicum of respect, they get what they deserve. John has tried to talk me into being a front pager a couple times and I’ve always said the same thing: You don’t want me to have people’s IPs. Because I will hunt them down and kill them.

  45. 45.

    arguingwithsignposts

    May 13, 2011 at 9:24 pm

    @Doug Harlan J:

    I may try to invest in gold shorts.

    The 70s are dead, DJ. Let them stay that way.

  46. 46.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 13, 2011 at 9:25 pm

    @Bob Loblaw: I think of economics as a riddle, inside an enigma, wrapped up in a mystery of strange brew, girl what’s inside of you?

  47. 47.

    Suffern ACE

    May 13, 2011 at 9:25 pm

    @jeffreyw: I’m sorry, but due to the diminished risk of inflation, we’re going to have to let at least one of them go.

  48. 48.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 9:26 pm

    @Bob Loblaw:

    What can I say, Stuck?

    Nothing even remotely worth saying lobslaw. It is what you specialize in around here.

  49. 49.

    MikeBoyScout

    May 13, 2011 at 9:26 pm

    TIP – Put all yur money into Mr. Bubble.

    There’s never been a better time to invest in bubbles. There is no where to go but up for bubbles!

  50. 50.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 9:29 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    I think of economics as a riddle, inside an enigma, wrapped up in a mystery of strange brew, girl what’s inside of you?

    You are tweaking, aren’t you fuckhead, and just can’t slow down the manic commenting?

  51. 51.

    handy

    May 13, 2011 at 9:31 pm

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    I’m not sure how many people showed disrespect in those threads, to be honest. A lot of accusations of racism though. Definitely witnessed a lot of that.

  52. 52.

    reflectionephemeral

    May 13, 2011 at 9:32 pm

    @Corner Stone:

    The silver market is so damn thin. It can be whipsawed by just a handful of players. As evidenced.

    Simple question, but I don’t know where to look for the answer: is there a site out there were you can find out how much money is tied up in 10-year Treasuries vs. silver? I’d like to get a handle on this “thinness,” but I don’t know how.

  53. 53.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 13, 2011 at 9:37 pm

    @handy:

    I’m not sure how many people showed disrespect in those threads, to be honest. A lot of accusations of racism though. Definitely witnessed a lot of that.

    Accusations of racism is the new black around here.

    Hmm, that doesn’t have quite the zip I was looking for.

    Anyway, people act shitty, they get shut down. Who can fault someone for that? Maybe that wouldn’t be my style but I’ve gotten used to people saying mean things to me over these many years.

    Lemme tell you where the anti-ABL shit comes from: people are jealous she’s a front pager. Who is she? Where did she come from? Why not me? Yeah, she prolly didn’t help any by being all up in everyone’s grille and she didn’t exactly tiptoe in and win friends and influence people but it is what it fucking is.

    Ya just gotta look for the good. It’s always there.

  54. 54.

    Bob Loblaw

    May 13, 2011 at 9:40 pm

    @General Stuck:

    Commodity markets are like a child’s pinwheel. They spin round and round and nobody knows when they’re gonna stop spinning until they stop spinning. Strawberry yogurt cardigan. Vote Obama 2012.

  55. 55.

    Suffern ACE

    May 13, 2011 at 9:40 pm

    @MikeBoyScout: In New York, when they pop, we’ll just blow new ones.

    http://flavorwire.com/102031/pic-of-the-day-bubble-battle-in-times-square

  56. 56.

    mrami

    May 13, 2011 at 9:42 pm

    I would really hesitate calling this thing before there’s some distance behind it. Volatility’s way too high.

  57. 57.

    gbear

    May 13, 2011 at 9:45 pm

    Balloon Juice: Come for the front pagers, stay to read a handful of regular commenters bitch at each other endlessly and ignore everyone else. Now that’s an entertaining friday evening.

  58. 58.

    handy

    May 13, 2011 at 9:48 pm

    @Bob Loblaw:

    LULZ

    @Just Some Fuckhead:

    I usually like ABL. I realize she’s not for everyone. But whatever. I just thought it was pretty obvious she melted down a little and when people called her on it, the “R” word started getting thrown around.

  59. 59.

    Jim Newell

    May 13, 2011 at 9:50 pm

    @Doug Harlan J: And yet whenever oil starts going up $10 a barrel each for several weeks in a row the next time, and the hippies point and say “hey that’s speculation,” the overlords will be right there to call that silly and conspiratorial.

    IIRC, the 2008 commodities bubble was a call that Krugman got wrong — as many did, because it’s so secretive! He said it was all a reflection of global demand, and that if oil was being priced significantly higher than the equilibrium, there’d be huge stockpiles of barrels that had been taken off the market. As it turned out, there were, in fact, huge stockpiles of barrels that had been taken off the market.

  60. 60.

    Stuckinred

    May 13, 2011 at 9:53 pm

    Try a florida weave.

  61. 61.

    Jewish Steel

    May 13, 2011 at 9:56 pm

    Argentum would’ve helped that bash.

  62. 62.

    Roger Moore

    May 13, 2011 at 10:00 pm

    @gbear:
    Yeah, the endless sniping between a handful of regulars has gotten really annoying. They need to stop their circular blog stalking and get a room. I really need to pie the whole lot.

  63. 63.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 10:05 pm

    @Bob Loblaw:

    So where did I mention anything about commodity markets in particular, I made a statement that no one seems to know what the fuck is going on with the economy of the markets in general from day to day. Is this wrong? please provide evidence it isn’t. I know this from reading expert opinion to the next completely disagreeing with the former expert on about anything to do with economic matters.

    It is what I said, and that despite it all, jobs are being created, but instead of making a good faith disagreement or complaint, you lob your usual shit bricks from whatever shithhole place your life is at. Do me a favor, stfu unless you have something presented in good faith. I am sick of yours, and fuckeads and beeses and corner stone relentless bullshit signifying nothing more than personal misery being attempted to unload on some one else.

  64. 64.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 10:06 pm

    @handy:

    Hey handy, kiss my ass. lulz

  65. 65.

    Omnes Omnibus

    May 13, 2011 at 10:07 pm

    @handy: There are approximately 57 threads discussing the ABL situation, do we need to make this the 58th?

  66. 66.

    Anne Laurie

    May 13, 2011 at 10:10 pm

    @nodakfarmboy: I actually posted about that article when it appeared in print, and a large percentage of the commentors called the author a butthurt pessimist who didn’t know what he was talking about. All I know for sure is that, given how hard I work for a few pounds of tomatoes every summer, I never want to have to subsist off what I can produce, and it makes me nervous that the money guys are treating farmers with the same lack of respect as they treat their monopoly-paper co-conspirators.

  67. 67.

    Craig

    May 13, 2011 at 10:23 pm

    The indispensable Felix Salmon could use a modest correction on one point: when 10-year Treasuries are up at the dizzying heights of 3.75 percent, it hardly suggests a “fear” of inflation. Thirty years ago, they were yielding 13 percent; twenty years ago, they paid eight.

    That Felix could look at a number like 3.75 and see any level of inflationary expectations suggests how wrapped around the axle we are about the Great Inflation Monster hiding under the bed, waiting to get us once Mommy turns off the light.

  68. 68.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 10:30 pm

    @Jim Newell:

    Serious people don’t believe in bubbles, you know.

  69. 69.

    cleek

    May 13, 2011 at 10:44 pm

    surprised /soros is coming up empty. trolls’ night off ?

  70. 70.

    Jim Newell

    May 13, 2011 at 10:45 pm

    @Doug Harlan J: Indeed. There are no bubbles. Everything is fine. If there is a bubble, though, it’s because Jimmy Carter gave the black guy a mortgage.

  71. 71.

    Corner Stone

    May 13, 2011 at 10:55 pm

    @General Stuck: Good faith? WTF would you know about good faith?

  72. 72.

    General Stuck

    May 13, 2011 at 11:04 pm

    @Corner Stone:

    That you don’t have any

  73. 73.

    jake the snake

    May 13, 2011 at 11:06 pm

    @Anne Laurie:

    Farming is hard enough without the BMBs messing with you.
    I heard about one farmer, when he was asked what he did for a living, always said that he was a professional gambler.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE750eEBWOk&feature=player_detailpage

  74. 74.

    Doug Harlan J

    May 13, 2011 at 11:11 pm

    @Hugh:

    Thanks.

    You know, I get more positive comments about post titles than anything else I do.

  75. 75.

    Joey Maloney

    May 14, 2011 at 12:04 am

    @mcd410x:

    Shouldn’t the gold bubble burst at some point?

    If it does I hope it takes Glenn Beck’s head with it.

  76. 76.

    DPirate

    May 14, 2011 at 1:10 am

    The wingnut word was that JP Morgan caused a run-up on silver in an attempt to corner the market. There were videos circulating calling for resistance. Whether they were all made by the same guy or not, who knows.

  77. 77.

    Cliff

    May 14, 2011 at 2:20 am

    The commodity crash that happened last week hasn’t received much attention.

    Probably because I don’t give a flying fuck. The sentence immediately following the one I quoted made me very glad that I am drunk on cheap wine.

  78. 78.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    May 14, 2011 at 2:44 am

    @Doug Harlan J:

    You know, I get more positive comments about post titles than anything else I do.

    Sounds like yer a damn fine copywriter.

  79. 79.

    Jebediah

    May 14, 2011 at 2:54 am

    @General Stuck:

    The fuckwads in the ivory tower ca sino that is Wall Street ought to all be rounded up, chained together, and sent to Alabama to cut Kudzu on the sides of highways.

    You’re willing to be a damn sight more gentle with them than I would be, were I in charge.

  80. 80.

    rob in dc

    May 14, 2011 at 5:24 pm

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=2543505

    That should help explain the difference between silver and oil run ups. Oil speculation is not the driver in price. Oils not coming down anytime soon, sorry guys.

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