PPP has Kathy Hochul ahead by a 6 points (MOE 2.9%) over Republican Jane Corwin in tomorrow’s special election in NY-26. Tea Partier by day Jack Davis is down to 13%.
This poll, and Saturday’s Siena survey show that Davis and Corwin are splitting conservative votes. A good part of the reason is the many self-inflicted wounds that have given Corwin a 52-34 unfavorable-favorable rating (almost the mirror opposite of Hochul). As Buffalopundit put it, “Corwin has run a campaign that is only competent at incompetence”.
Polling for special elections is tough, so it would be foolish to assume that Hochul will win this race based on a couple of polls. Even so, here’s another poll with brutal crosstabs [pdf] for Republicans. Barack Obama is more popular than John Boehner in a 90% white district where 66% of respondents identify themselves as moderate to very conservative. A small plurality of respondents think that Republicans are doing a worse job in the House than Democrats, and they’re not sure whether Obama or the Republicans in Congress are best suited to run the country (it’s at 44-45).
It’s like people like Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid and dislike poorly staged attack theatrics and dissembling. The final vote will tell but upstate new York conservative is a bit different than conservative in the New Confederacy. They do not like any change but don’t have a demarcation line of when things were best. They reset. They might reset to being conservative democrats this election.
Cant wait for this election to be over. I live in the district(Amherst, a suberb of Buffalo) and get “at least” one piece of mail per day from each of the candidates. What is worse is the robocalls from, Albany,DC, and all over the country. I have given up answering the phone and pick up my messages from the answering machine.
The real question is do the Democrats have a strategy for taking back the House and expanding their majority in the Senate?
Despite the beating Democrats took in 2010 at the local, state and federal levels, I don’t see strategy emerging to gin up supporters enthusiasm and create a theme for the 2012 election.
The cosmos abhors a vacuum and if the Democrats can’t dictate what the 2012 elections will be about, the Republicans will again fill the airwaves and print media with their talking points, putting Democrats on the defensive.
Scott Brown rode a wave of furor over the passage of the health care bill to win in a very liberal district, even though his opponent made major mistakes in the campaign and was severely flawed. The Brown win was a national narrative that showed how much democrats suck.
This, however, shows that a single candidate is making mistakes in the campaign, and is no indication of national politics, or the public’s anger over Ryan’s Brave, Bold medicare assault.
Huh? Really? There is no narrative out there from the Dems, nationally, about the GOP plan to trash Medicare and Social Security? None?
You must not live in an area that is competitive, electorally speaking. Because I have certainly seen numerous ads from the Dems trashing the GOP agenda and Ryan’s plan, specifically.
I guess one could call (if somewhat imprecisely) the Commonwealth of Massachusetts “a liberal district”; but Scott Brown’s Senate win was scarcely a thunderous endorsement of Republican policies. Yes, MA Dems did suck, in that election (and healthcare issues were a major part of it); but Brown, once in office, seems to have come to the realization that there will be little reward at home for pushing the standard GOP line very hard, if at all.
So he’s only getting about half of the lunatic vote. Talk about underperforming.