Not that this (via) will get much attention, given all the more important things going on:
Private-sector employment growth decelerated sharply in May, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday, in another possible sign of a sputtering U.S. recovery.
Employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose a seasonally adjusted 38,000 in May, well below the 175,000 increase expected by economists. In April, private payrolls showed an increase of 177,000, ADP said.
“This is exceptionally weak,” said Eric Green, chief market economist at TD Securities Inc. in New York.
beltane
This month’s manufacturing and export numbers were similarly awful. I really don’t see this ending well.
PeakVT
The reporter forgot to mention how economists were “surprised” by the low number.
dr. bloor
Great. One step closer to President Mittens, because this will be Obama’s fault whether it really is or not.
beltane
Does this mean that our vaunted “job creators” will be penalized for their abysmal performance?
dr. bloor
@PeakVT:
Yeah, I’m sure DeLong and Krugman were shocked.
cleek
i’m unconvinced that i should put any stock in what economists expect, think or believe.
PurpleGirl
@beltane: Nope. It means they need even more tax cuts to hire the extra household servants they need.
BlueDWarrior
Hrm, so what happens when you try to run an engine (American economy) but forget to put fuel in the tank (have the bottom 90% have enough money to spend on non-absolute necessities)…
why you end up with a sputtering, stalled, and possibly damaged engine that’s what.
Really it should be pointed out by our
collection of Republican sycophants, I mean ESTEEMED UNBAISED media that the Republicans basically refuse to play ball and Obama has not been made dictator for life, so what he is exactly supposed to do I have no idea.boss bitch
These numbers were brought up on another blog and someone posted that ADP’s predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.
Also, very bad news on the economy? I’m pretty sure the media would talk loudly about this because it hurts Democrats.
EconWatcher
OK, can all of you who have been posting about Obama’s “slam dunk” next year just shut up now? I read a thread yesterday where people were arguing about whether Obama will win more than 75% of the electoral votes.
Take a bite of a reality sandwich, people.
If we slide into a double dip–and it sure looks like we might–any knuckledragger who’s nominated by the Republicans has a shot.
Comrade Javamanphil
We’ve already driven off the cliff but are still arguing about whose turn it is pump the gas. Fun while it lasted.
PeakVT
@dr. bloor: What’s your point? Neither Krugman nor Delong was quoted. Only “economists”.
askew
That number is awful but not unexpected. With the federal government and state governments cutting spending and consumers still not buying, the economy won’t improve.
It’s unfortunate that Democrats in Congress have bought into this budget cutting frenzy because it is just going to hurt the economy more and make it more likely that they get replaced by Republicans in the next election.
cleek
@EconWatcher:
seconded
eemom
by “more important things going on,” do you mean Palin bus-a-palooza or Weiner’s weiner-gate? These are both deeply serious matters deserving of every nanosecond of intense laser-beam scrutiny our selfless, dedicated media are working tirelessly to bestow upon them.
boss bitch
@askew:
It doesn’t matter if they bought into it or not. Dems don’t have the votes in the House to do anything. The Senate? nope.
aisce
@PeakVT:
unexpected you mean. the key word is “unexpected.” always unexpected.
EconWatcher
@boss bitch:
Agreed that Dems won’t be able to get any new jobs initiatives passed, but shouldn’t they be trying, and screaming loudly as their initiatives are blocked?
They need a narrative for 2012. Right now, I don’t think they’ve done much to show that the blame for continuing unemployment rests with Republicans.
What is our story going to be when unemployment is still scorchingly high late next year, as it will almost certainly be?
Shrillhouse
Quick! Somebody cut the capital gains tax! That’ll set things right…
Linnaeus
@askew:
This is probably my biggest complaint about the Democrats; they’ve bought into the austerity rhetoric. Maybe a kinder, gentler version of it, but bought into it nonetheless.
arguingwithsignposts
House GOP members outside the White House now talking about how we need to cut taxes and create jobs through less regulation. Ugh.
ETA: Paul Ryan – my plan has been mischaracterized.
bkny
@dr. bloor: well, considering he’s not doing much to advocate policies that will produce jobs — he does share some responsibility.
otherwise, it’s just what the overlords want. desperate people willing to take any of those minimum wage/no benefits jobs that might be out there. that’s why you have southern autoworkers making $8/hr.
OzoneR
@askew:
Nobody in Congress even thought about cutting spending until Republicans won the House. As a matter of fact, spending still hasn’t been cut yet at all. They haven’t bought into it, they’re just powerless
Linda Featheringill
Capitalism HAS TO HAVE enough customers willing and able to pay enough money for a sufficient amount of goods for the “employing class” to make profits. Period.
It’s true that capitalism needs some other stuff and I’m sure the employing class has wants and needs, but the whole system has to have these customers. Otherwise, it will collapse.
The Republicans haven’t convinced me that they understand this.
Comrade Javamanphil
@Linnaeus: Yep and that’s why we can’t have nice things.
OzoneR
@EconWatcher:
That would only work if the public supported the idea of government jobs initiatives, they don’t. the stimulus “failed,” remember?
Here in New York, we just got $300 million to fix a railroad interchange that will bring 9,000 jobs, and the overwhelmingly attitude is “more wasteful spending” Because the government doesn’t create jobs, they just give tax cuts to small businesses like Wal Mart to create them
danimal
Meh. The real jobs report will come out on Friday. I still believe in Rosy Scenario. Enjoy the sunshine and ignore those dark clouds.
We’ve still got a few days of unwarranted optimism before the tidal wave hits. Pass the tanning butter.
gypsy howell
Looks like we’re going to have to tighten our belts more. And by “we” I don’t mean congresscritters, the white house or wall street.
If this isn’t a good opportunity to destroy medicare and social security, I don’t know what is!
Lurking Canadian
The narrative will soon be that if only the Democrats brought down the deficit, the economy would start up again. That this is patently false will not deter anybody, except that Krugman will become even more shrill.
Roger Moore
@beltane:
Of course not. It’s all Obama’s fault for hurting their precious feelings. They can’t help that they’re sociopaths.
El Cid
The problem is that there’s far too much government spending, and this will lead to hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar.
Americans may not like it, but they’re going to have to learn to live within their means.
After all, 150 economists signed a letter to Speaker John Boehner about how necessary it was to combine any debt limit increase with equal cuts, presumably to social programs.
150 economists writing to the Republican Speaker cannot be wrong.
After all, if businesses that are doing well and making profits and who have customers see that the national debt is increasing, they’ll stop all that, and suddenly make their investment decisions on those sorts of abstract macro-economic figures rather than upon their particular economic scenarios.
The private economy is only run by supply and demand when the participants are made to feel good that the government is run in a parsimonious fashion like Ben Franklin and various 1920s pro-business inspirational speakers say.
piratedan
lemme see…..
since the last congress was sworn in…….we’ve had
bills about woemn and abortion
bills about abortion and women
bills about federal funding for everything but abortion
preventative sexual health for horses
medicare killing propositions
state goverments cutting all kinds of jobs in Red State land because public workers are dragging down the “recovery”
and fuck all about jobs….with the exception that the Right pontificates that they NEED to extend those tax cuts for the rich so THEY, the scions of the private sector, can create jobs.
queue jobs report five months later…. no jobs to be found…..
anyone got a sharpie to help connect the dots here?
gypsy howell
@Linda Featheringill:
who needs capitalism when you can have plutocracy!
Comrade Dread
I’d like to say thank God we extended those tax cuts to spur economic growth.
Now, I also have a magic rock that I’ve personally been using to keep Depressions away. I’d like to offer my magic rock to the GOP leadership for a simple 1,000,000,000 dollars.
Linnaeus
@Linda Featheringill:
I think what the Republicans are really going for is neofeudalism.
gypsy howell
@gypsy howell:
better yet:
who needs capitalism when you can have feudalism!
PeakVT
@boss bitch: That’s true, but it doesn’t help either public policy or Democratic electoral chances if Democrats adopt Republican frames. Or to take a “both sides do it” approach like my representative did today.
beltane
@OzoneR: Ah yes, the great American Dream has been replaced by a thin, sour schadenfreude. Americans no longer want to improve their lives, they just want to see someone else get screwed over. As a society, I am afraid we are about to reap what we have sown.
Roger Moore
@EconWatcher:
If the Democrats scream about their efforts but the media fails to report it, does it make a sound?
Failure, Inc.
I was thinking that a double-dip was not on the table. Thanks to a grossly insufficient stimulus package, combined with the freak show now running the House and giving every indication that this time they’re going to let the government default for real, I think we may just get one.
That’s the bad news for all of us. For the Democratic partisans among us, the truly bad news is that if we do get a double-dip, it will be hung around Obama’s neck, the Republicans will benefit, and there is not a damn thing you can do about that.
Linda Featheringill
@gypsy howell:
:-)
The plutocrats are not and probably will not be hurting. How can I become a plutocrat?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@arguingwithsignposts:
Well there is a surprise from the Republicans.
We need to balance the budget; tax cuts
We need to boast employment; tax cuts
We need to fight a war; tax cuts
We need to fix health care; tax cuts
We need to fix social security; tax cuts
Meanwhile its a tornado hell out there and winter in summer. Wonder why no summer jobs?
BlueDWarrior
[ I forget how to link to other posts ]
Well the problem is that back when we had our majorities we had a bunch of Blue Dogs who were not quite as turned off by the size of Obama’s package as the Republicans were, so we ended up with a smaller than needed stimulus.
Not to mention we just have a corrupt corproate culture to the point where I think unless we have real WPA style programs where the government is more directly involved in the actual implementation of projects then we’ll never get to where we actually need to be…
Basically this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oq_1KdZIsM
Davis X. Machina
What you see here is the inevitable result of a collapse in aggregate virtue.
Only austerity can return us to the levels of virtue required to ensure that the mandate of heaven is bestowed on our leaders, and our crops prosper, our cows calve, and our ewes lamb once again.
The situation calls for penance, sacrifice, the mortification of the flesh — and lower marginal rates of income tax.
Anoniminous
IOW, macro-economic policies implemented to placate rentiers that reduce micro-economic activity will, indeed, reduce micro-economic activity.
OzoneR
@BlueDWarrior:
we have a little bit of that with high speed rail, but then you have governors rejecting the money and whole swaths of the country that Obama administration can’t help because of their idiot governors.
Anoniminous
@Linda Featheringill:
Game Theory to the rescue!
Assume: cake.
Game: two players, with perfect foresight, have to divide the cake with a knife. Each player wants to maximize their share of the cake.
The Approved Strategy: one player takes the knife, divides the cake and the other player chooses which slice they will take.
The Anoniminous Strategy: One player grabs the knife, stabs the other player, and takes all the cake.
Go thou, Ms. Feathergill, and do likewise.
boss bitch
@EconWatcher:
I’m guessing that Democrats don’t want to bee seen continuously losing when they control the Senate and the White House. At least that’s the way the average uninformed voter would see it.
Right now the Medicare fight is working for them. Not sure if they can stretch it out until the next election. Obama and the DNC chair have talked about “American Exceptionalism” lately, so I’m guessing they might go there in 2012:http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2011/05/26/dnc-chairwoman-tests-exceptionalism-counterattack/?mod=google_news_blog
I don’t know. While Dems aren’t the best at consistent messaging and the media is useless, the American people don’t seem to heed our warnings until they get whacked in the head with a brick – metaphorically. Republicans have been going after Unions, Medicare, Medicaid, and SS for a long time. Americans are waking up now because Republicans have enough power to carry most of their agenda through.
Failure, Inc.
@Anoniminous: A flawless analogy of modern “capitalism”. I applaud you, sir or madam.
Pococurante
Krugman and De Long are practically buying Survivor Seeds.
boss bitch
@PeakVT:
sadly, its what people like to hear. Well, people who don’t pay attention.
Anoniminous
@Failure, Inc.:
Thank you, thank you. I’ll be here all week.
(Try the veal.)
;-)
I sit here in my little office. Staring out of the window. Wondering when people are going to ‘get’ Our Galtian Overlords are a bunch of sociopaths.
El Cid
@beltane:
This is the way it’s been.
‘Those damn public workers want more for their pensions, and they want it from me? I ain’t got no damn decent pension, and I work damn harder than they do, so I think they oughtta be in the same boat as me!’
‘Those prisoners/ welfare cheats/ illegals get all this health care treatment and they don’t pay a thing, and I can’t even afford insurance. They shouldn’t get any of that!’
‘I worked 80 billion hours a week for 350,000 years and I had to save up money for my retirement, and I look at all these people just sucking out Social Security and it burns the hell out of me!’
Whatever it is, we’d rather get the chance to judge others, find them morally wanting, and take away what we don’t want them to have — it’s too damn much trouble to make sure we get better policies.
M-Pop
@dr. bloor: I can hear it now – he rammed Obamacare down our throats instead of focusing on jawbs.
Yutsano
@M-Pop: A lot of them went there (and won) in 2010. Of course now we’re back to wher r teh jerbs? They’re gonna go to blaming brown folk here soon enough.
Poopyman
Well, FWIW, the stock market is down 180–plus points on the bad news. So far it’s been completely divorced from the rest of the economy, but if it suddenly starts sneezing after the rest of the economy -caught cold- is nearly dead from pneumonia I’d say it’s about time.
There goes what’s left of my 401k.
matryoshka
@Anoniminous:
I think a lot of people get it, but no one knows what to do about it.
Ken
However, some leading indicators are up a bit; corrugated box sales up 4.1% over last year(good for manufacturing), rail shipments of polymers/chemicals (raw materials) up 2.3% from last year. Per last week’s issue of Businessweek. Please back away from the ledge.
gypsy howell
@El Cid:
Hence the ‘abortion-abortion-abortion-all-the-time’ Republican legislative strategy. They know that as long as the forced-birth freaks can fuck someone else over, they will put up with being fucked over themselves.
Anoniminous
@matryoshka:
(Assuming the disease will not run its full course to a global panepidemic of Neo-Feudalism.)
It is a commonplace there are two general treatment regimes for politico-economic sociopathy:
1. Populist/Progressive: as used by the medical team of Roosevelt and Roosevelt
2. Cranial Surgury: as invented by Dr. Guillotine
We have yet to decide which will be chosen. I’d much prefer the first however we have yet to discover a medical team knowledgeable and willing to pursue a full course of treatment. Given that, the deployment of the second has to be considered as a strong possibility.
fuckwit
@El Cid: crabs in a bucket
matryoshka
@Anoniminous: I concur, doctor. I’m not a betting matryoshka, but if I were, I’d be downstairs polishing the guillotine. The Republican Teabilly carcinoma has metastasized beyond the reach of the Roosevelt & Roosevelt treatment.
matryoshka
@Ken:
That might be because people are using the boxes as homes, though.
Fred
Funny but I don’t see your report from last month when it was an exception jobs report. Or for any of the other good jobs reports.
So why is that?