Back in 2008, right after McCain picked Palin as VP, I spent almost an entire day reading about her and came to the conclusion that she was an ignorant, vindictive, narcissistic nutcase. Over the next couple weeks I fell into despair over McCain’s increasingly good poll numbers, but within a month, much of the rest of the country had come to the same conclusion about Palin that I had. Most people didn’t drop everything they were doing to read about Palin, so it took them a little longer, that’s all.
I think the same thing be happening with Paul Ryan’s Vouchercare plan. As much as Vouchercare hurt Republicans in a single race in NY-26 , it will only become more broadly unpopular as the public becomes more familiar with it. Nate Silver:
If these poll results are right, they represent a lot of danger to Republicans because they suggest that voters’ assessments of the Medicare proposal are not yet fully “priced in” to their views of the parties more broadly. Right now, most people aren’t paying all that much attention to the budget debates or to domestic politics more generally. But they will tune in at some point between now and next November, and when they do they may find that the Republicans’ approach to the budget is not to their liking.
It is in this context that interpretations of last week’s special election in New York become more useful. It essentially represented an acceleration of political time, with voters in this one corner of the country hearing and acting upon arguments that they would not ordinarily begin to consider until late next year.
Silver suggests that Republicans devise an exit strategy from the unwinnable quagmire of Vouchercare. They won’t, not when Paul Ryan is getting blowjobs from the “Morning Joe” crew every day, not when even the liberal Washington Post is telling them that they will be greeted as liberators.
The economy is back in the tank and Obama would be in a lot of trouble under normal circumstances. Praise Bieber and pass the vouchers.
Dollared
Still too early and the economy will get worse. Oh, and by 2012 registering people to vote will be illegal in 30 states.
I’m praying that either Ryan or Palin make a formal run, and dominate the early wingnut caucuses.
Vixen Strangely
Ryan didn’t realize his plan was laced with fail. He doesnt like that the Medicare revamp is called a “voucher plan”. Fine. Gramps Stamps. His plan is not palatable not because they didn’t think abut how to sell it to folks–it’s unpalatable because it’s cruel and stupid nonsense.
I think it high time the Democrats deployed the “You’re so stupid” gambit. It’s one thing to preach Mediscare–especially if the end of Medicare as we know it is a real thing. It’s another to hammer home regularly that the “savings” of the Ryan plan don’t measure up to the tax cuts for the rich, etc. If anyone thinks the Ryan plan will cut the deficit–you’re so stupid! Call it effectively stupid, and maybe people will want to hear more about alternatives. Point out how things won’t ever work under it. It works because the Ryan plan is actually stupid.
kdaug
Shit yeah. Let’s dance.
Salient question – we’ve been talking about this for months. Why didn’t they see it coming? No “bubble” platitudes, there are smart people there.
Or is that the wrong question? Did they just choose to roll the dice? Made a big bet that came up snake-eyes?
Either case, make ’em wear it.
kdaug
@Vixen Strangely:
Hold your powder, Vixen. Whites of their eyes.
Doug Harlan J
@Vixen Strangely:
It is vouchers though.
Alex
The exit strategy is to hold the debt ceiling hostage over Medicare cuts. Then claim “both sides!”
AnotherBruce
@Dollared: Yes, registering people to vote is illegal because…..? See, this is why conservatives have focused on packing the courts, to get the rulings they want. And this is directly related to why liberals are losing so many battles they should be winning. We need to start focusing on winning the courts back at every level.
Dollared
Now, please don’t ever accuse me of believing that Republicans act in good faith.
But…my wingnut friends are in a quandary. Medical costs are killing us all. Medicare is one symptom, and it’s an “entitlement.” So it’s the point they must attack.
And….
Rule 1. It can’t be a solution from a government bureaucracy. It must be free enterprise.
Rule 2. Risk of failure must be on the individual, because all true insurance invariably leads to moral hazard.
Rule 3. Taxes cannot be raised (we’ve told so many lies and done so many dirty deeds to get this far, wé’re not going back).
So….it has to be a voucher plan. No choice, really.
Now that does not excuse Ryan lying about it and saying it’s not a voucher plan, and all that other lying and giving tax cuts to rich people that Republican party members are all about.
But well-intentioned wingnuts – and there are a few – are just stuck in this place where Mom and Dad will just have to let Grandma die a slow death because they need to pay for Juniór’s college, and that’s just all there is to it. Or as Andrew Sullivan prefers, poor children don’t get chemo and they die like Tiny Tim.
It’s their little corner they’ve painted themselves into, and they aren’t leaving it.
Dollared
@AnotherBruce: Absolutely. Wisconsin is just one example. Permanent war is not just for Muslims anymore.
Linda Featheringill
Hi.
Boy, you guys are night owls! I thought I’d be alone when I woke up in the wee hours.
It’s very interesting to me that a large proportion of Seniors and conservatives aren’t buying the Republican explanation of Ryancare [Anne Laurie’s post earlier]. I think that could be because of:
1. They don’t fully understand that Repubs have promised that folks over 55 won’t be harmed.
2. They don’t believe that promise.
3. They aren’t as selfish as some people seem to think that they are.
4. All of the above.
Take your pick.
Dollared
@Linda Featheringill: West Coast, Linda. 5. They have adult children, and grandchildren, so even if they are Republican, they want social insurance that works.
Even if Bobo keeps pointing out that SS started with Bismarck, and we all know where that ended up…..
Linda Featheringill
@Dollared:
You’re probably right. They want to protect their own progeny.
There is also one other possibility: Some folks might think that if the below-55 folks are hit now, the over-55 folks will be hit tomorrow or the next day. Which I guess would be #6.
kdaug
@Linda Featheringill: 5. They have kids and/or grandkids.
Gonna die soon – what’cha gonna leave?
kdaug
@kdaug: And – gah – the “failed to read through all the comments” fallacy strikes again.
Chris T.
@Linda Featheringill: #6 is of course entirely correct. If Republicans succeed in eliminating Medicare for “me” (for any “me” who is under 55), I will want to stop paying into that system now … which of course makes it fall over right away.
(The one good possibility here is that, after that, it might pave the way for a single-payer-for-all system. But I would not suggest counting on that.)
Linda Featheringill
@Chris T.:
Good point. I don’t know but I suppose that Medicare is paid for like Social Security, with the current output coming from current “contributions.”
Ah. Sleepiness returns. I’m going to try the bed again. Nice talking to everyone.
[heart]
Jenny
Notice how no one has asked Romney if he would vote for this.
This tells you a lot. That they’re shielding Romney from the poison shows you who the press is rooting for and while they call it “bold” they know RyanCare is toxic.
sven
This has already happened.
Republicans are already insisting that cuts to Medicare are an absolute requirement for raising the debt ceiling. Their belief is that if Democrats vote for even $1 of Medicare cuts Republicans will be totally immunized from the issue. Sadly, Democrats will probably go right along with this strategy. They continue to believe that a centrist pose will win them more votes than campaigning on popular issues. Anyone remember the ‘fight’ over tax cuts for the rich? I suspect we’ll see a similar let down over Medicare.
freelancer
@Jenny:
I see this as a tad too conspiratorial. The media is retarded and Romney has his own issues to deal with, aka he’s insufficiently ripping his hair out enough when he compares the ACA with Hitler’s Final Solution. The MSM, if they cover the negative aspects of the Romney camp at all, chooses to focus on long-standing, glaring paradox.
John Puma
The first link below shows that Medicare is projected to cost 15% of GDP in about 2072.
The second link is a rational analysis of the prior US budget that suggests the total of ALL our war-making related costs comprise over 50% of a budget of over $3 Trillion.
The current GDT is in the neighborhood of $10 trillion.
Therefore, our war-making costs about 15% of GDP, RIGHT NOW.
So, “serious” analysts, where should the cuts be made?!?
1) http://tinyurl.com/l6vw8y
2)http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/04/13-4
dollared
@John Puma: so, we could….
1. raise taxes to Clinton levels
2. cut defense to 2003 levels
3. actually control health costs a la Germany, Netherlands, France, UK, Canada
4. cut off every poor and lower middle class child from health care, and let grandma die.
What would you do?
Spaghetti Lee
@sven:
They didn’t take the bait on the government shutdown, why would they take the bait on this, an even more important issue?
LGRooney
International Talk Like a Pirate Day?
I have been so conditioned to accept that GOP bullying will win the day for their idiocy, with a severely cowed media presenting matters on the he-said/she-said scale, that I have nothing but bad feelings about how this will all turn out. The Dems will feel they have to compromise and then the media will have a field day muddling it as a compromise instead of blackmail and the voters will say “Fuck it!” I’m voting for whomever dreams up the nicest stories because it doesn’t matter.
My hope is that Obama will issue an executive order to raise the debt ceiling if a deal isn’t worked out but Care Bear doesn’t do such things, alas.
Jado
Confession time.
I *changed* my registration in order to vote for McCain in the primary, because I thought that the Obama vs McCain race would be my dream ticket. I wouldn’t care who won, because they were both excellent candidates. Of course, I was basing this on John McCain from 2000.
Then McCain opened his mouth. Then he picked Palin. Then my brain seized, and my heart broke, and I realized that Republicans are ALL broken, morally bankrupt conmen who will sell me and my children down the river to give rich white guys in NYC a tax break so they can pay for their boats.
Now I am forced to deal with the Democrats, and see if they can recognize an actual American person if that person isn’t holding a giant corporate campaign contribution.
It’ hard out here for a (financial) wimp.
Mike R.
The republicans have already identified their exit plans: force the Dems to become complicit in the dismantling of Medicare. Knowing full well that Democrats lack the capacity to bring about widespread economic disaster the assholes only have to attach the elimination of medicare to the debt level increase and they’ll get both passed. There is no other way for them to extricate themselves from their budget proposal, but if the blame is shared they’ve limited the damage.
James E. Powell
Back in 2000, as it became apparent that George W. Bush would be the Republican nominee, I read everything I could find about him. I came to the conclusion that he was a total fraud, a dishonest right-wing demagogue, a man who knew almost nothing about the world outside of circle of the wealthy and privileged. Over the next several months, all the way up to election day, I fell into despair as people I knew to be reasonable bought the corporate press/media’s story that Bush was authentic and Gore was a liar who didn’t know who he was. I guess it took them longer, that’s all. For some of them, it took several years. Most of those who bought the modern cowboy of virtue narrative went even harder for Our Own Young Churchill.
Since the country went for Reagan in 1980, I have seen no evidence to have any faith in the American electorate, taken as a whole. Whatever optimism I may have had after Obama was elected was erased by the 2010 midterms. Anger and frustration at the state of the economy is no reason to vote for the very people who created the state of the economy and who spent two years impeding any effort to improve the state of the economy.
So I guess I am not sanguine about the prospects for 2012’s congressional elections or for Medicare. Every day, I expect to hear that Steny Hoyer or some other Democratic ‘leader’ has signed on to a modified RyanCare plan to save the nation.
Fred
One bad jobs report and the economy is “back in the tank”? LOL!
Oy vey you people are hilarious. You must be the ones who always buy high and sell low. As a stock investor myself I thank you all for the bargains!
Paul in KY
@Jenny: Well, I sure hope some intrepid reporter does manage to ask him that.
Paul in KY
@John Puma: I will be 113 in 2072. I will be needing my Space-Medicare ™.
Catsy
@Fred: Word to the wise: triumphalism combined with stupidity and bad assumptions is never a good mix.
Carl Nyberg
Democrats should stretch the field and shoot for gaining 50-120 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.