Apparently, the big withdrawal is merely promising to withdraw the “surge” troops, meaning we will be at 70k troops in theatre at the end of 2012:
President Barack Obama is expected to announce this week that 30,000 U.S. “surge” forces will be fully withdrawn from Afghanistan by the end of 2012, an administration official has told CNN.
Obama will deliver his highly anticipated speech on the troop drawdown on Wednesday.
The time-frame would give U.S. commanders another two “fighting” seasons with the bulk of U.S. forces still available for combat operations. Outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates has pushed for additional time to roll back Taliban gains in the country before starting any significant withdrawal — a position at odds with a majority of Americans, according to recent public opinion surveys.
Gates acknowledged Tuesday that domestic public opinion and congressional support for further military engagement must be taken into account by the president.
“Sustainability here at home” is an important consideration, Gates said. People are “tired of a decade of war.”
An estimated 100,000 U.S. troops are currently serving in Afghanistan, some 30,000 of which are part of the so-called surge ordered in late 2009 in a bid to control the rising violence.
This will not go over well.
tofubo
the poetry of d.h.rumsfeld
to adapt a phrase from an earlier little ditty
“It is unknowable how long the withdrawal will last. It could be decided on in six days, the logistics planned out in six weeks. I doubt we’ll have troop in theatre after six months.”
Martin
Why oh why did Obama neglect Afghanistan for 8 years in favor of going into Iraq. We could be out by now if not for that blunder of his!
Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937
To do what? What is really going to change in two years? Is there someone left there who is not pissed at us that we can irritate?
Dave
And the Graveyard of Empires claims another victim. The UK fought three wars against the Afghanis, totaling less time than we have spent there. And their big final victory was getting a border with India delineated.
This has just become one big clusterfuck.
askew
I am frustrated that we will be back to 2008 levels at the beginning of 2013. That seems moronic to me. I think we should remove all the troops by the end of 2012.
However, I think that this drawdown will satisfy most voters. The far-left and far-right were going to disappointed no matter what.
roshan
This is how President Obama deals with the professional left.
david mizner
“What is really going to change in two years?”
The mission’s still not accomplished.
We haven’t funneled enough money to defense contractors, created enough terrorists, sufficiently destablized Pakistan, ensured the existence of permanent bases, or secured Afgahnistan’s number ranking as the most dangerous country in the world for women.
Joseph Nobles
Obama continues to act within the parameters of what he has promised to do.
Withdrawal starts in July 2011. Withdrawal is complete by 2014. A small footprint of troops will be left as in Iraq. That’s what he has said, and everything we have learned so far is completely consistent with this.
Some troops will come out immediately. Now he’s adding another deadline, that all surge troops will be out by December 2012. That gives two more years to withdraw the remainder of the forces coming out.
You’re right, though, John. It will not go over well. But that’s because those with whom it will not go over well seem to be congenitally unable to understand exactly what Obama has said all along.
d. john
must… feed… MIC
Keith G
Why? I thought Obama is a flawless leader – the best possible.
Seriously, the man is going to get dumped on from all sides for this. Will he deserve half of the grief he will be getting?
Skipjack
All of NATO has been saying 2014 for so long now I thought everyone got the memo. The plan is for European troops to stay in some capacity so that they can show they all came in together and went out together. The US would then stay on in an “advisory” capacity.
I’m convinced that part of Obama’s about face re: Libya was to support other NATO members when they want to intervene as pay-back for their support of US in Afghanistan.
Dave
Joseph Nobles: I happen to agree with what you have said. Obama is keeping to what he has always said. The problem is that it’s not going to fundamentally change anything. Be it 2011, 2012, 2014 or 2020, Afghanistan is never going to stabilize and become what the US envisioned. We blew that chance once Bush went into Iraq. Now we’re just delaying the inevitable and it’s a waste of American lives and money.
James E. Powell
Not go over well with whom?
Americans, in general, love war. The Great Crusade is not exactly on anyone’s mind right now. Too busy looking for a job. Besides, killing distant, non-whites is a boost to many Americans’ self-esteem. I can’t imagine them caring even a little bit about Afghanistan. Certainly not enough to change their votes.
Or did you mean the anti-war DFHs? Especially those who supported Obama over Clinton because he had not supported invading Iraq?
First, Obama said, over and over, that he was going to escalate in Afghanistan. He did, now he is going to reduce from that escalation. Second, Obama and the whole universe know that they never have to worry about DFHs because their only other choice is to vote for a Republican.
gnomedad
@tofubo:
From the article:
Translated into Teahadese.
d. john
It *should* be *really* fucking difficult for a POTUS to involved us in war.
Just sayin’
Bullsmith
For a country that’s supposedly broke, the wars with no national interest involved at all really are a shocking lack of money. Social Security is called the third rail of politics, but forever wars seems to be the truly untouchable political issue. Hell Dems swept into power on ending Iraq in 08. Three years later, the country’s every bit as much embroiled in unnecessary, unaffordable wars as it was then. More so.
Tim, Interrupted
Could someone please refer the Obot Moron Mnemosyne to this post, in which JC repeats exactly what I noted and was taken to task for in an earlier thread?
I for one don’t want him or her to miss the opportunity to hail the Great and Glorious Phantom Withdrawal from Afghanistan!
Thank you. That is all for now. Carry on.
Tim, Interrupted
Could someone please refer the Obot Moron Mnemosyne to this post, in which JC repeats exactly what I noted and was taken to task for in an earlier thread?
I for one don’t want him or her to miss the opportunity to hail the Great and Glorious Phantom Withdrawal from Afghanistan!
Thank you. That is all for now. Carry on.
srv
We will unsurge to the level we had before the surge. This is the unsurgency. Wondering who thought there was some other plan.
FDChief at Milpub catches a neat quote in an Al-Jazeera
Lots of talk about ‘fragile’ gains that must be maintained. Curious the wingnuts and Obama-bots who are so obsessed about propping up Afghanistan but completely disinterested in soshulist propping up of our own economy.
Ghanima Atreides
what would go over well Cole?
yanking 50k troops while the US is trying to negotiate permanent airbases with the Karzai government?
Letting the electorate in the dirty little secret that we spent 1.3 trillion (sofar) of their money and we have FUCKING NOTHING TO SHOW FOR IT?
Not a single airbase, not a single ally?
Iraq is planting a boot in America’s fat white judeoxian ass in december and O’s gotta run an election campaign.
Go over and concerntroll the President with your libertarian homeslices at the LoOG, they lap that drench up over at the vomitorium.
Keith G
@ Keith G above:
My comment was to include a tag noting that I was being humorous re flawless leader, but it was disappeared – fywp
Attempts to edit were met with being told I did not have permission to edit – FYWP!!
david mizner
That’s debatable:
“Obama continues to act within the parameters of what he has promised to do.”
Does 10,000 troops represent a “significant number?” Maybe, maybe not.
More important, with the death of OBL, the President had a chance to dramatically change course and get out. He’s choosing not to.
cleek
maybe a picture will help some of you understand what’s happening…
got it?
Whiskey Screams from a Guy With No Short-Term Memory
Obama is getting some really bad advice on two fronts. Unfortunately for him and for us, he is listening to it.
Fucking military has snowed him good, so I don’t blame him personally. I’m sure he has no clue which end of a gun the bullet comes out of. However, the buck stops with him and he is responsible for the results.
The results are not good.
Whiskey Screams from a Guy With No Short-Term Memory
cleek: awesometown.
Shalimar
It worked with Iraq, why wouldn’t it with Afghanistan? The war in Iraq is over. How often is it even mentioned in the media that we still have 45000 troops there?
FFrank
You realize this is economic stimulus. 30,000 more people able to do the 9/11 GI Bill. Just think, as an election coup, withdrawing the other 70,000. and yes this is sarcasm. Still safer for the 30K that are still going back.
Tim, Interrupted
Poor Barry. Snookered again.
What, exactly, would it take for you to blame Obama “personally?” Is there some entity outside of his person who is taking or not taking actions in his place?
Please advise.
Dennis SGMM
I interrupt this thread for a morsel of OT schadenfreude:
Gingrich campaign finance team quits.
Comrade Dread
I’m probably more cynical and jaded than most, but I assumed (and continue to assume) that we’ll be in Iraq and Afghanistan for the rest of my lifetime (barring some sudden collapse of the American government).
That’s part of the reason why I was livid about jumping into Libya. It represents yet another undefined mission subject to being stretched out indefinitely by calls for one more Friedman unit.
Linnaeus
This. There’s supposedly not enough money for things like Social Security and Medicare, but plenty of resources available for the US military establishment. This is one of the things that’s impoverishing this nation. I welcome any drawdown of US forces in Afghanistan, but in the end, this nation needs to go much further in dismantling our military empire. But neither Republicans nor Democrats show much inclination to do that.
Mnemosyne
Aww, you wanted to hear from me so badly that you called me twice! I’m flattered!
Yeah, it’s weird how a story that quotes the exact same sources in the exact same way comes to the exact same conclusions, isn’t it? Almost as though both of the stories used the same quotes instead of doing some actual reporting.
But it’s not like anonymous sources have ever tried to pressure the president to do something they want him to do, so clearly these anonymous sources are completely trustworthy. Why should Obama even give his speech tomorrow since the anonymous sources have already given us the entire story?
Mnemosyne
Oh, silly Joseph, with your “facts” and “timelines.” How are people supposed to blow up into hysterics if Obama sticks to what he said he was going to do?
chopper
@retardo_chan:
whoever had 22 minutes in the pool, collect your prize.
Tim, Interrupted
Mem, still awaiting your very special insidery information on the awesome nonwithdrawal.
Oh, that’s right: SPEECH! The prez will give a speech! And we all know how all the pretty things he said in all his very lovely campaign speeches came oh so true!
Tim, Interrupted
Hmmm…the only hysterics I’ve seen here are the Obots screaming at anyone who sees that the Emperor is nekkid.
Speaking only for myself, as I try to do here, you might take the time to read what I write instead of what you want to hear, Mem. I have never said the motherfucker changed his mind on his specific bullshit timeline. Doesn’t matter to me whether he acknowledged his bullshit ahead of time or not, the fact remains that he has now extended the Bush boy’s murderous, immoral, unnecessary wars by three years. Thousands and thousand have died in that time, though you’re cool with that cuz Barry said ahead of time that he would kill them.
Trurl
BWAHAHAHAHA!
That is all.
Derf
Another day, another naive anti-war blog by John Galt Cole.
The Dan Choi if anti-war activism if you will.
fuzz
What Shalimar said is right, no one cares about guys being deployed, they care about casualties, and even that is waning. Something like a dozen KIAs in Iraq the last few weeks and no one has really reported it.
I get what they’re doing though, apparently the Quetta Taliban in the south have been beaten pretty badly and they want to consolidate our gains down there, plus apparently the drone campaign in Waziristan is really working pretty well, the NYT and Wired said that 30 of the 50 top AQ leaders in Pakistan have been killed. Afghanistan isn’t about coin/nation building anymore because Karzai has made it clear he isn’t reliable (see what Amb. Einkenberry said about him last wk), it’s basically a kill or capture mission writ large now. Build up the Afghan army and kill as many Pashto fighters as you can before the hand off.
Mnemosyne
Yep, it’s only us O-bots who get hysterical. You, clearly, are completely cool, rational, and logical at all times.
Paul W.
10,000 was at or even slightly above most predictions I had seen and fits within the timetable Obama has been talking about in general. Of course I would like it to be faster, as in the surge troops gone before next summer, but I never anticipated anything other than a gradual withdrawal.
I’m not sure who this won’t go over well with since I don’t know that many folks who when they asked for the end of the war expected an immediate removal of all troops. If there is a concrete timetable to ending the war, I think that satisfies the general electorate’s expectations… but what do I know?
Mnemosyne
I’m still waiting for you to present something other than anonymous sources.
Wow, there are a whole lot of things that the president apparently didn’t do, then, since he gives a speech almost every day.
He made multiple speeches about the stimulus, and ACA, and the DADT repeal, so it’s good of you to let us know that none of that actually happened and not a single one of them was signed into law. We know that because Obama gave speeches about them, which clearly means the legislation never existed at all and the “laws” are just head-fakes to convince naive people that the government actually does things.
Ghanima Atreides
@dread, shalimar
NO WE WON’T RETARDS.
Iraq is planting a boot in America’s fat white judeoxian arse in December. By the te terms of the SOFA we leave ONLY 150 trainers behind.
@chopper
you should go over to the LoOG with Cole and sukk up some libertarian vomitus too.
@Cole
WTF would go over well, retard?
We are getting kicked out of Iraq in December, so we lose those airbases, and RIGHTFUCKINGNOW Petraeus is trying to negotiate “permanent” bases in A-stan. What kind of a moron are you?
If we kite now the Talibs are going to roll into Kabul like the fucking fall of Saigon and put Karzai’s head on a spike.
They are gunna do that eventually anyways but Obama is going TRY to relected before we fold our tents and silently slip away.
Our prescense in AfPak is DESTABILIZING the Pak government, and if the Arab Spring gets there before we GTFO then jamaat-e-ismali and terk-e-taliban
get around 100 nukes.
Trurl
[[ Mr. Obama is considering options that range from a Pentagon-backed proposal to pull out only 5,000 troops this year to an aggressive plan to withdraw within 12 months all 30,000 troops the United States deployed to Afghanistan as part of the surge in December 2009. … Even after all 30,000 troops are withdrawn, roughly 68,000 troops will remain in Afghanistan, twice the number as when Mr. Obama assumed office. ]]
http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/glenn_greenwald/2011/06/21/endless_war/index.html
mclaren
Gee. I predicted this multiple times…and every Obot and loyal Democrat and true-blue-stater rained epithets and invective and envenomed verbal abuse on me for saying that Obama wasn’t actually going to withdraw troops from Afghanistan…
…And now that my prediction has proven true?
Three guess. (More abuse from the Obots.)
Note to the gullible foolish Obots: American military funding and troops levels are a ratchet. They always go up, they never go down. “Reducing Pentagon funding” means “we’re going to increase Pentagon funding.” “Withdrawing troops from Afghanistan” means “we’re going to have more troops in Afghanistan after the `withdrawal.'”
America will still be at war four years from now, fourteen years from now, and forty years from now. Welcome to the Forever War, Obots: war is now the health of the state. Obama can’t reduce military funding or troop levels any more than Bush could–the Pentagon now controls the United States budget, not the president of the united states or the congress. All crucial budget decisions in America are now made by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, not by anyone you elect.
Get used to it.
goblue72
For all you alls armchair quarterbacking and spitball slinging the “President That Got Osama bin Laden” over his efforts to make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear he got handed and who doesn’t have the luxury of operating in a Rainbow Brite political landscape, I have three numbers for you:
1. 28,500
2. 35,688
3. 52,440
The 1st number is the number of U.S. troops stations in South Korea, leftover from a war that ended 60 years ago.
The 2d number is the number of U.S. troops in Japan and the 3d is the number of U.S. troops in Germany, both leftover from a war that ended almost 70 years ago.
When I start seeing Code Pink throwing hissy fits over “bringing the troops home” from Germany or Japan instead of whinging on the post-drawdown forces left in Iraq, then I’ll start taking seriously the foreign policy strategy offered up by the progressive left-itarians.
Ghanima Atreides
@goblue
yeah well fucker none of those troops are taking trophy ears or gettin turned into halal hamburger by the talibs.
i hate all you retards so much
General Stuck
WHAT WILL PEOPLE THINK WHAT WILL PEOPLE THINK WHAT WILL PEOPLE THINK WHAT WILL PEOPLE THINK WHAT WILL PEOPLE THINK
MANY MORE EXCLAMATION POINTS!!
RUNS AROUND ROOM WILDLY,
LIKE HEADLESS CNN PUMA CHICKENS
Linnaeus
I agree totally that US military withdrawal should include places like Germany and Japan, although the historical and diplomatic context in which those forces are situated obviously differs from the case in both Iraq and Afghanistan. I think people focus more on Iraq and Afghanistan because the circumstances are different and people likely think that US withdrawal from those countries is of a higher priority and more easily done because the political basis for those forces being in those countries is weaker. That said, I agree that the whole of the US military footprint needs to be reevaluated and adjusted.
Thing is, a number of people have been saying this for a long time, but in American political culture, that critique gets easily maligned as “isolationism”, wanting a “weak” United States, being “against the troops”, being “pacifistic”, etc. etc., even when people with considerable knowledge and experience who aren’t DFHs (like the late Chalmers Johnson) make the argument for US military reduction.
Ghanima Atreides
DIAF, please, right from kumbayah libertarian spooning Cole down to tne AmericaFuckYeah conservo-trolls.
goblue72
@Ghanima Atreides: Keep screaming into the wind. No cares what you think. At. All.
@Linnaeus:
That’s just completely retarded. On what planet is keeping close to 100,000 combined in Germany & Japan have a “political basis” stronger than keeping troops in Iraq & AfPak? What exact national security threat does Japan pose? Invasion by Hello Kitty? And what, we expecting the Ruskies to roll their tank over the Iron Curtain any day now into Germany? Meanwhile, over in AfPak, some nut named Osama bin Laden WAS hiding out. And Iraq is smack dab in the middle of a giant puddle of oil, which energy source (unfortunately) we are still entirely dependent upon.
On top of that, the Democratic establishment is no way, no how gonna endorse a full withdrawal that runs any risk of repeating the fall of Saigon. They spent the last 40 years finally escaping being labeled the pussy party and they have no interest in going back.
Trurl
Meanwhile…
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201161005022257677.html
You can almost hear the quiver of relief in his voice.
chopper
matardo_chan is getting drunk, apparently.
Cromagnon
Obama is as bad or worse than Bush. I don’t think even Bush would have murdered poor-ole OBL sleeping peacefully in his home… Obama is almost as bad as Hitler. Same thing pretty much
Once Sarah Palin is president, everything will be A-OK, dontcha know
Ghanima Atreides
@goblue
like i said, troops stationed in germany and japan aren’t gettin turned into halal hamberger by the talibs, or taking trophy ears.
but you go right on bloviating.
chopper, you are a retard too.
go sukk EDK’s cock with Cole.
Ghanima Atreides
bulshytt, Turl.
the headline is a lie.
Iraq has NOT asked the US to stay and most likely won’t.
wanna know why?
Maliki said hes putting it to a vote.
Panetta has a bad case of TeamAmericaFuckYeah wishful thinking. He was successful at bullying Pak into giving up OBL, but what bribe or threat is large enough to bring the political blocs onto americas side?
wont happen.
Team Sadr is one of the political blocks.
I think its pretty interesting how the headlines of both articles try to spin it like the US is staying.
Maliki says the opposite…..he WILL reject the US staying if the blocs vote against it.
Turls al-J article the samesame.
I think we are getting kicked out via the terms of SOFA. What bribe is large enough to pay for a million dead muslim citizens?
America is the kiss of death for Iraqi politicians at this point.
Ghanima Atreides
its clear as mud.
The blocs meet at the end of month and i bet money they vote no….
and al-Sadr fucking hates America’s guts.
Ghanima Atreides
C’mon morons. Panetta is a spinner and a ‘tard.
Do you really think this guy is going to vote America back in?
The only the US gets asked to stay is if al-Sadr gets whacked.
In the bad old days we would have done just that, like Mossadegh.
But no one can put the social media djinni back in that bottle.
pattonbt
@ GA:
You really have lost your weird little mind haven’t you? Entertaining? You sure are. Informative and/or correct? Haven’t been yet, so pretty sure we can keep assuming your track record of fail will continue unabated.
But, as always, please keep on keeping on, you are a wonder to read :)
pattonbt
@ GA:
So when we are still in Iraq in January 2012 (with no Iraqi “vote” for American forces removal having taken place), will you accept, yet again, that you were wrong?
I think I can safely say US forces will be in Iraq, in large numbers (say greater than 10 to 20 thousand) for another decade minimum.
If course, I am proven wrong and we are out of there tout sweet I will be overjoyed and bow to your impressive and unmatched intellect.
Ghanima Atreides
What Maliki said:
Im thinking this Sadr guy is a def NO vote.
But you could be right….lets try a thought experiment….the US stays. What happens then?
Iraqis burning American flags in the street? Sadrites as the New Taliban insurgents? The Arab Spring in Iraq with America starring in a recap of Hosni Mubarak’s role?
El Cid
I’ve always found it pretty bizarre that people would even attempt to analogize the US military presence in Iraq to that in South Korea.
I mean, yes, people who are in the US military are in both places, but I think that their missions are a bit different, and I think the nation-building aim in the South Korean deployment is a bit different, and also there’s not quite as much of a need to maintain security in the face of a still fairly collapsed infrastructure in Seoul.
It’s possible that Iraq is funding 40%+ of the purported costs US forces there, as is the case in South Korea, but I hadn’t heard of it. Nor that troops in Iraq have been pushing to be able to bring their families to live with them there.
Nor does Iraq have much of a military-industrial-high tech-Chaebol complex which benefits from lots of South Korean defense budget dollars.
And I think the US military’s activities in German are also somewhat different than those in Iraq. Or Afghanistan, even.
Ghanima Atreides
al-Sadr is not going to allow the US to stay I think.
Ghanima Atreides
I think Panetta is blowing smoke up your asses.
Rewrite the SOFA?
not when sayyid al-Sadr is on the job.
He has been waiting for this for four years, and training to be an Ayatullah in Iran.
Just like Sistani did. That is how Sistani got to be the titular head of all the Shi’ia.
And Sistani is very, very old.
Could Muqtada, the Supreme Hater of America, become the new Grand Ayatullah?
extreme bad juju for America.
Linnaeus
@goblue72:
I actually do think US forces should be withdrawn from Germany and Japan. The political basis I was speaking of refers to the long-standing alliances, treaties, etc. that have become institutionalized. There’s a very different history behind the presence of US forces in places like Europe and Japan; I’m not saying this means that there’s no reason to remove those forces, only that I can understand why people would differentiate between the situations in Germany, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. Furthermore, it’s entirely possible to evaluate the merits of, say, continued US presence in Iraq in its own right.
See, I don’t think the Democratic establishment ever deserved that label, and I don’t think trying to avoid that label is a great foundation for policy.
Ghanima Atreides
but trying to avoid that reality is a necessessity for the CinC. If people refuse to read and rely on spinner headlines they are going to get fragged by reality every time.
If the Arab Spring reaches AfPak we WILL be leaving by helo from the rooftops of Kabul in Operation Frequent Wind Part Deux.
Obama is intelligent enough to understand this.
Ghanima Atreides
Like I said above, when I quoted Muqtada al-Sadr, I dont think we have a choice in Iraq. Panetta is blowing smoke up someones ass….yours? the electorate’s?
al-Sadr has been planning this for four years…ever since since Bush was FORCED to sign the SOFA. He knew the Americans would try to stay.
We still have a choice in AfPak– GTFO before Imran Khan brings the Arab Spring, or risk the Taliban rolling into Kabul and putting Karzais head on a spike while our troops are evacuating via helos from the rooftops.
Its a very real possibilty.
Do you think Americans in Iraq and AfPak are any less hated than Mubarak was in Egypt?