I don’t know if we can really believe this Wall Street Journal op-ed by Club for Growth founder Stephen Moore, but it’s pretty much what I’ve been thinking:
The Republican nomination for president is completely up for grabs, but there’s a lot of agreement on who the vice presidential pick should be: Marco Rubio, the freshman senator from Florida. My contacts in the Mitt Romney camp are boasting: “Doesn’t a Romney-Rubio ticket sound great?” One senior Romney advisor told me: “We think that could be a dream ticket.” Operatives from the pack of other wannabes are thinking ahead to the same Rubio marriage with their candidate….
I’ve thought for a while that the Republican VP nominee isn’t going to be a white male, and I think that means Rubio unless (and I think this is a remote possibility) it’s South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, with Bobby Jindal (choked in his one shot at the national spotlight) and Cain, Bachmann, and Allen West (too extreme) as the real longshots.
But think about it: If the nominee picks Rubio, what does that say about the recently popular notion that the GOP is going dovish and wobbly and isolationist?
Recall what Ross Douthat wrote about Rubio a couple of days ago:
Rubio is the great neoconservative hope, the champion of a foreign policy that boldly goes abroad in search of monsters to destroy. In the Senate, he’s constantly pressed for a more hawkish line against the Mideast’s bad actors. His maiden Senate speech was a paean to national greatness, whose peroration invoked John F. Kennedy and insisted that America remain the “watchman on the wall of world freedom.”
… Rubio has argued that we should be striking harder against Qaddafi….
… the story Rubio tells, with eloquence and passion, is … the story of a great republic armed and righteous, with no limits on what it can accomplish in the world.
If you lurk in the right-o-sphere, you encounter a lot of people appalled at the prospect that the presidential nominee might be Jon Huntsman, or Mitt Romney. A lot of righties are horrified at the prospect of nominating a “RINO.” If there were really a serious anti-interventionist, isolationist, small-government-extends-to-foreign-policy-too movement on the right, you’d hear just as much howling about the prospect that Rubio or a similar neoconservative type might be on the ticket.
But you’re not hearing that. And you won’t hear it. Because, apart from a handful of sincerely Paul-ish teabaggers, most on the right don’t have any problem with interventionism and bellicosity, as long as it’s on right-wing terms and under a right-wing Daddy. Right-wing reticence about power has an expiration date: the day the next Republican president gets sworn into office.
Han's Solo
“Right-wing reticence about power has an expiration date: the day the next Republican president gets sworn into office.”
Oh come on now, what possible historic precedent could there be for such a bold piece of hyperbole? It’s not like Dubya Bush ran for President touting his belief in a “Humble Foreign Policy” or anything.
Downpuppy
The Hair Club for Growth will pick the R nominee.
My 2 sixpence are on Curt Schilling.
Martin
T-Paw is their man:
Fuck yeah! None of this drawdown bullshit. T-Paw wouldn’t get us out of Afghanistan until there were at least 2 nuked dropped and a unconditional surrender.
Violet
Rubio’s definitely going to be the VP unless they have to appeal to the Bachmann Palin crazy wing of the party a little more.
DFS
Back-from-vacation Daniel Larison has also been writing some good stuff about Rubio’s ascendance as the next leading spokesman for War, War, and More War. With Lieberman retiring and McCain liable to apoplex himself any day now, those boots need filling.
Han's Solo
I’m going to go way out on a limb and say that Rubio won’t get the nod.
Why? Because the GOP will start using the Southern Strategy in earnest come June or so of 2012, and picking Rubio might turn off the same xenophobic biggots the GOP needs to win elections.
Besides, if the Democrats are smart they’ll try to push immigration reform in 2012 and the wingnuts will go cookoo-banana-puffs to the extent that much of the more informed Republicans will come to the conclusion that writing off the brown folk’s vote is the only realistic thing to do.
SteveM
Maybe — but remember that Rubio is the son of Cuban exiles, and the Southern strategy types still hate commies. (Limbaugh still talks about the “ChiComs.”)
Frankensteinbeck
Look, they can barely swallow their warmongering enough to try and interfere with Libya, and they hate NOTHING more than Obama and anything he does. IOKIYAR and INOKIYABP.
Han's Solo
SteveM – If Rubio has to rely on the Republicans embracing nuance he’s fucked.
Cuban, Mexican… It might make a difference in Florida, but most of the wingnuts won’t get it. For them, it is white or not-white, little else matters.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
OT: Great, holy shit….
Supreme Court votes 5-4 (big shock), determining that generic drug makers aren’t subject to the necessary safety regulations of brand name counterparts.
I guess if we have another rash of OTC meds laced with cyanide, that’ll just be, you know, one of those risks you’ll have to face buying generic. Good griefing god…
Linda Featheringill
Rubio seems to be the sweetheart of the day but it’s still very early.
Who was it in the BJ community that said we should wait until the second trimester to get excited over a particular candidate?
That’s what we should probably do.
jimbob
Rubio for the rubes. And vice versa.
TruthOfAngels
Well, yes. And if you lurk at FDL Obama is totes going to be primaried by magical gumdrop pixie dust. Which will make just as much difference to reality.
This is entirely correct, however.
nancydarling
Steve, I don’t know how many commenters here are Hispanic. I would like to hear from them about the relationships between different Hispanic nationalities. I seem to recall from a Mexican-American friend in L.A. that there is not much love between Mexicans and Cubans. She told me that the Mexican derogatory term for Cubans is “los gusanos” or worms. I just don’t know how monolithic the Hispanic community is, but it is typical of Republicans to assume they are all the same. Rubio might carry Florida for the Repubs, but what about the rest of the Hispanic community? I don’t know if the wet foot/dry foot test which used to dictate if Cubans could stay caused resentment from other nationalities or not. I don’t know if that test is still in effect or not. Might Hispanics other than Cubans feel like they are being thrown a sop to buy their votes? Somebody enlighten me.
PaminBB
They should put Sarah on the ticket again, because that worked so well last time.
Martin
From the article:
Congress passed a stupid law. SCOTUS said it was a stupid law, just not an unconstitutional law. Sounds like an easy enough situation to fix.
jacy
All I can say is never lurk in the right-o-sphere without being fully vaccinated. It also helps to drink a lot.
Props to anyone who reads that crap without either becoming suicidal or homicidal. I am not that strong.
(BTW, welcome, Steve — because I’ve been in self-imposed writer’s exile and didn’t say it before. Now another blog to feel guilty about spending time reading or not reading, depending on the day. I can’t win.)
Han's Solo
Martin – That was my thought exactly.
They need to pass a law, which should be easy, but the pharmaceutical industry will try to fight it like crazy.
IMO it should be rolled into a bill that lets the Government bargain for the price of drugs like every other industrialized country in the world. I mean, if you are going to pick a fight you might as well pick a GOOD fight.
Catsy
I can’t speak for that in detail, being neither of the above, but my anecdotal experience says this is on-target. Lumping Mexicans and Cubans together in the same bucket is just pig-ignorant. Tapping Rubio to shore up the Hispanic vote makes about as much sense as picking an Englishman in order to pander to Canadians.
In other words, it will please many older Cuban expats, most of whom already vote Republican–and at best do nothing else. At worst it will be seen by many Hispanic voters as the naked, ignorant pandering that it is.
Martin
It’ll only be a beneficial move if Florida becomes a key state in the math. I think the GOP needs a lot more than Florida, though, and Rubio won’t deliver anywhere else.
Just Some Fuckhead
Jesus, they think a Mormon and a Catholic are a dream ticket for the evangelical Christian party? I’d like some of whatever they are smoking. Romney has the same chance as McCain 2008 of capturing the nomination, and for the same reasons. But to pair him with a Messican-looking Roman Catholic and call it a dream ticket is really a stretch. They need to get Huckabee on speed dial stat.
SteveM
@ Han Solo: I spend a lot of time at my own blog arguing that right-wingers always have a carve-out for their non-whites, whom they shower with praise: Clarence Thomas, Thomas Sowell, Herman Cain, Allen West, and, in the past, Alberto Gonzalez, Alan Keyes, J.C. Watts…. Ours are inferior; theirs have broken free of the “liberal plantation.” Also remember the two governors in American who trace their ancestry to India: Jindal and Haley, both wingnuts.
I think the wingers will embrace Rubio just so they can say, “Fuck you, we’re not racists — you liberals are.”
Evolved Deep Southerner
I don’t know enough about Rubio’s prospects to speculate, but the idea of Republicans being “dovish” is laughable.
The only reason we’re seeing any kind of pushback at all is because it’s “whatever Obama’s fer, we’re ag’in it” all the time.
If Dubya had done this, we’d have seen no pushback, ’cause all of the Republicans and about half the Democrats would have been completely down with it.
If this unfortunate period of Teabagger-whatever we’re seeing now politically is to have at least some marginal silver lining, the easing back on the President’s unilateral warmaking powers would be one.
AnotherBruce
“They need to get Huckabee on speed dial stat.”
Don’t give them any ideas. He’s the one guy I would worry about.
Calouste
The Sarah Palin pick V2.0. But if as a political party you have relied on identity politics for 40 years, you have lost the ability to look at things outside the context of identity politics. Palin was suppossed to bring in the Hillary voters, because according to identity politics, women vote for women. It was blatant, transparent, and it backfired.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Rubio is going to be seen as a sell-out, specially if immigration reform is a topic next year and the GOP behaves like we expect.
SteveM
@ nancydarling: I agree with you about the likelihood that other Hispanic groups will automatically embrace a Cuban-American — it’s silly to see Hipanics as one bloc. But the white people who run American politics aren’t very sharp about these things.
TruthOrScare
nancydarling @ 14: Excellent questions; I’d be interested in the answers myself.
Also too, isn’t the VP nom the one expected to throw the red meat so the Pres nom doesn’t have to dirty their hands? How convincing will Rubio be throwing the anti-immigrant meat being Hispanic himself? Also also too, will a Romney/Rubio (Mormon/Catholic) ticket have trouble getting the full-throated support of James Dobson, to bring the fundies along? Even Perry/Rubio could cause heartburn, not with the fundies whom Perry can bring himself, but because he has made some ‘questionable’ outreach to the Hispanic community in the past — and then you have an actual Hispanic on the ticket. How much faith could they generate that they will keep those brown peeplz in their place?
catclub
“Congress passed a stupid law. SCOTUS said it was a stupid law, just not an unconstitutional law. Sounds like an easy enough situation to fix.”
They will pass a stupider law?
Calouste
They could trace their ancestry to India, but they both have worked fairly hard to cover up those traces. Both use American first names (and Haley had the “advantage” that she could get rid of her Indian surname through marriage), and both have converted to Christianity
Han's Solo
SteveM – You may well be right.
However if, like I predict, the wingnuts go into spastic fits of xenophobia in the summer of 2012 (they will) you may be wrong. Then again, maybe they’ll pick Rubio so they can hide behind his brown skin while lobbing racist piles of poo at the Democrats. We’ll see.
I don’t know enough about Rubio’s political skills, intellect or background to form an opinion on how good a pick Rubio would be.
Svensker
My Puerto Rican friends tolerate Cubans, South Americans and other Caribs but think that Mexicans are barbaric and not reeeeeelly Hispanic.
Mike Kay (The Base)
McCain says Rubio stated the wildfires in Arizona.
catclub
JSF @ 21 “They need to get Huckabee on speed dial stat.”
I have a suspicion that Romney and Huckabee ( is that what you meant?) on the same ticket would not work out. I think there is some deep-seated friction between them.
It would unite the party, but the GOP is not as big on that as the democrats.
Just Some Fuckhead
lolz
Ghanima Atreides
Its genetic…. and its not going away anytime soon.
The real problem is one of the two major parties in America is religious, and there is a negative correlation between religiosity and cognitive ability..
The demographic timer will eventually correct the problem, but until then, red/blue genetics determines the make up of the electorate.
Jennifer
That may be the only thing I’ve ever heard out of Stephen Moore which wasn’t insultingly transparent bullshit.
Jeffro
Romney is the favorite for the nom, Rubio has to be the favorite for the veep pick. We are seeing a replay of 2008, only this time the economy has sucked for longer:
– the next guy in line for the GOP is most likely getting the nod
– but the GOP faithful are not enthused about said nominee
– and the nominee is most likely going to try and ‘hail Mary’ his veep pick in hopes of picking up votes with a bloc that the GOP’s doing badly with (women in 2008; Latinos in 2012)
Given how the economy is doing, I expect Obama will lose 30-50 EVs from his 2008 total, but he can easily afford to do that and still rout Romney.
In the end, the GOP’s over-the-top-obvious attempts to bust unions, privatize Medicare, and service the wealthy at every turn will save the day despite the cruddy economy and lack of real excitement on the D side.
ScottC
Is there some reason Gov. Sandoval of Nevada gets left off these non-white guy lists? I realize Florida is much bigger than Nevada, and much further from the East Coast media centers, but still.
Just Some Fuckhead
@ScottC:
Who?
Mnemosyne
Looks too much like Mitt.
JoeV
From what I’ve read, Rubio is fervently denying wanting anything to do with 2012. Of course, that could change quickly if he’s offered red enough meat, but I think that the wingers are just crossing there fingers and praying for a miracle boy to save there sorry asses.
PurpleGirl
From the pictures I’ve seen of Rubio, he isn’t very dark. He looks quite white, just like my college boyfriend. And his family was always talking about their ties to Spain and their ancestors being aristocrats.
Chris
Damn. They’re going to give them a Massachusetts Mormon who governed as a pro-choicer, a pro-gayer and the creator of the original Obamacare – and they’re going to throw in an “affirmative action candidate” on top of that?
If they lose 2012, they’ll double-down on the “this is what happens when you nominate RINOs! Start running as conservatives again!”
Chris
Yeccchh.
“Gusanos” is the term favored by the Cuban regime to refer to any Cuban who seeks refuge in the United States. It’s an ugly-ass word, doubly so when you add that context to the general derogatory meaning.
(Not that there aren’t equally ugly terms for Mexicans running around in the Cuban community, I’m sure).
Nalgador Sobo
I can’t speak to US Latino identity politics, but last time I was in a Mexico City mescaleria “gusano” was anything but a negative term!