Find a girl with far away eyes:
According to Democratic pollster PPP, Bachmann is polling at 18% among Republican voters (in New Hampshire), second only to Romney at 25%. Not only that, non-candidate Sarah Palin is third at 11%, suggesting Bachmann may have more socially conservative and Tea Party votes up for grabs. The rest of the field are in single digits: Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry and Herman Cain each at 7% Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty at 6%, and Newt Gingrich at 4%.
Mike Murphy — my favorite Republican bobble-head, because he seems the most like a Philip Seymour Hoffman character — says her life ain’t worth a dime (politically speaking):
[W]hile a unified Republican establishment in full combat mode cannot compete with the Tea Party when it comes to making cardboard Uncle Sam hats, GOP Inc. can easily crush a candidate like Bachmann over the full series of primaries.
Remember, though, that’s what they said about
Reagan Christine O’Donnell. Unfortunately, I think Murphy is probably right, nevertheless, despite this poll.
Bachmann may be merrily floating along right now, but that much crazy can’t be contained forever. Once the bigwigs behind the curtain decide it’s time to pull the plug on her little dog-n-pony show, I imagine something supremely and terribly amusing (for observers) will happen. Bachmann just doesn’t have that much discipline, despite all the practice she’s had at home with her big gay husband.
rush, teatards, and redstate pubs fucking HATED McCain. But he won fairly easy last time.
This time, there will be more people crossing over that voted in the dem primary last go around.
I don’t think the GOP primary voters are gonna be nearly as wack as folks seem to assume on lefty blogs.
And I was so pleased to be informed of this that I ran twenty red lights in his honor. Thank you, Jesus. Thank you, Lord.
TPM says she is gaining in New Hampshire as well.
If she wins Iowa and New Hampshire…
The mind boggles at a Bachman ticket. I see Bachman picking Palin for VP then traveling the country in a series of outlandishly decorated busses.
They would call it the “Sisterhood of the Traveling Crazy Pants” and it would be unstoppable (mostly because they would no doubt hire bus drivers that didn’t understand how to work the brakes.)
These are pretty awful numbers for Huntsman who has been spending most of his time in New Hampshire. I can’t wait for Bachmentum to sweep the whole country.
The government of Bachmann’s home state isn’t even functioning. Is that a “plus” for the Republicans?
To the GOP primary voters? Yes.
Ignore it. It’s worthless:
July 2007 Democratic nominee polling for New Hampshire:
Someone else 1%
No opinion 12%
July 2007 Republican nominee polling for New Hampshire:
Fred Thompson 10%
Tommy Thompson 0
Someone else 2%
No opinion 13%
Clinton thought that, too, but Obama played the game differently and won. I wouldn’t rule the tea party out – they’ve proven to be stubbornly successful at upending primaries.
yeahyeahwhatevs (Studly Pantload, once upon a time)
I suspect Bachmann will gaffe herself into the shadows of “also ran” status in due time. Of the current canddiates the GOP base seems to find relevant, only Mittens seems able to go the primaries distance without becoming a mere laugh line on the late-night talkies. (Not that his inconsistencies won’t niggle him.) In fact, I’d not be surprised if the Bachmanns and Palins become such damaged goods (to most of the mainstream voters, anyway) by the end of the process that Mittens – who will by necessity need a Tea-Party-style running mate to keep the base engaged – will be forced to reach to the bank bench (much as McCain did) and tag an unknown to be his nutter wingman (or wingwoman).
If Bachmann or Palin gets the nomination, I’m keeping a packed suitcase, my passport, and $1000 Canadian in a readily accessible place. I’d quite honestly fear for my life if they won and I wouldn’t be embarrassed to flee.
All she needs to do is perform well enough to force Mittens to put her on the ticket…
The biggest fucking joke of all is Pawlenty. When will the media start treating him like the Pat Paulsen candidate that he really is?
they seem a little less-overhyped, these days. there were many days in 2010 when MSNBC.com would have a dozen or more instances of the text “tea party” on their front page. can’t find a single one, today!
without the MSM whipping them into stiff peaks, will they be able to hold up the same number of fruits and nuts that they did last time?
These kinds of polls may have some use to party operatives for strategy or campaign fundraising purposes. Otherwise, they don’t mean squat.
Oh, yeah, they are a time filler on Sunday pundit shows.
Davis X. Machina
There’s the party process, and the primary process.
And Jonathan Bernstein on the difference.
The interview with Hans Noel at Columbia Journalism Review that Bernstein mentions is worth a read in its entirety.
A close friend of mine who has never voted Democratic before, ever, recently told me that if the GOP doesn’t get better candidates soon, he’s voting for Obama. So I think we can go ahead and count that as another vote for our side.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
Martin – July 6, 2011 | 4:30 pm · Link
Ignore it. It’s worthless:
July 2007 Democratic nominee polling for New Hampshire:
Gore 10% (did not run)
The final order of finish in 2008 was:
So, the top 3 candidates that ran finished in the order that was predicted and that’s worthless?
What I’m thinking, too. The money finger will come down, and it won’t be pretty. Amusing, perhaps. But not pretty.
But if they think she’s got a real shot, a chunk of the trillions they’re sitting on will come down hard. CU gave them a Mack The Knife glove. She won’t know what hit her.
Davis X. Machina
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: That’s all very well, but what does it tell us about President Clinton’s prospects for re-election to a second term.
At this point, if she comes out with a good number in the money race (around 10 million) we have to say she’s Romney’s competition. And given the tea party’s influence; you can’t count her out. We’re going to see how crazy the party base is; because I don’t think they can shut her down if she can get enough money to get by. Hiring Rollins was the smartest thing she’s done to date. He knows how to run a campaign.
Meanwhile, given Mitt’s bona fides, it’s going to be hard for him to hit her.
True, but a lot of that MSM coverage seemed to be little more than an excuse to get the nation to laugh at the fat girl on Idol. At least, that’s how O’Donnell’s coverage came off to me. So long as the tea party can keep putting out crazypants candidates for our national amusement, I expect they’ll keep getting the coverage.
Last time, McCain won the moderates, because all of the factions to his right ran their own candidate who wasn’t palatable to the others. The religious right had Huckabee, big business had Romney, the neocons had Giuliani, the serious crack-smoking libertarians had Paul, etc, none of which had what it took to unify more than one faction of the party.
When the hard right could unify around a candidate, like they did in 2000 (born-again oilman Bush being essentially a fusion candidate of big business and religious right), McCain lost. McCain won in 2008 by essentially being everyone’s second choice. At least that’s how it looks to me.
Fred Thompson 10%
And the final results were:
John McCain 37%
Mitt Romney 31%
Mike Huckabee 11%
Rudy Giuliani 9%
Only Romney wound up anywhere near the polling. Huckabee came up from essentially no name recognition to 3rd. McCain from 11% to 37% to win, and Rudy from inevitable nominee to 9%.
And yet teatards were voted to office in enough numbers the institutional grifters are walking us into global default. Will the leadership taken the threat more seriously next cycle?
Does it look like they are now?
GOP Inc. can easily crush a candidate like Bachmann over the full series of primaries.
I tend to agree with this. Nobody ever went broke overestimating the degree to which authoritarian followers will shut up, salute, and fall into line once they’re ordered to.
@Martin: Exactly. The more crazy things Bachman says the more the media will cover her. The more the media covers her the more the Tea Party will rally around Bachman because she is a “victim” and the commie-islamo-fascist lamestream media are out to get her.
This could lead Bachman to break out the crazy every time her fund raising comes up short. Which could sustain her through the primary season, and, if played right, could turn the teabaggin base against whoever (Romney) comes out as her main non-teabaggin opponent. In other words, she could poison the Republican well.
Could Bachman lead to the death of the GOP as we know it? Could she be the wedge that is driven between the factions of the GOP? If it is a harsh race and she loses, could she go for a third party run? And if she did, would a significant portion of the teabaggers follow her lead?
The Teabaggers constantly tell themselves they aren’t Republicans, that they are of all parties and none, and that they hate the Republicans almost as much as the Democrats. It’s bullshit, but they’ve shown they can convince themselves of anything, so I’m not sure that they know it is bullshit. If they decide the Bachman is Martyr #1, and that the true villain is the GOP, we will be in for a very interesting election season.
Most likely she self destroys long before anything like this happens. But it makes for fun conjecture.
with any luck, she’ll be off with the nearest truck driver she can fiiiiiiind.
She IS lookin a little bleary. Worse for the wear and tear.
@ eemom: That sounds more like Palin to me.
But if Palin backs out, like she obviously will, cause she actually knows better where the money for her is, won’t those starbursts go to Bachmann?
David in NY
But who will the Democrats who decide to vote on the New Hampshire GOP primary ticket favor? Will they go with the safer candidates like Romney or Huntsman, or try to saddle the Republicans with an unelectable lunatic as a front runner?
They’re awesome numbers for Huntsman! It’s the first time he has polled above the margin of error from zero! Feel the Huntmentum!
The Sheriff's A Ni-
But look at who he was up against: Guiliani, Huckabee, Grampa Fred Thompson, RON PAUL(tm), and oh yeah Mittens too. The closest thing to a red meater was Huckabee, and he was too busy scaring the rank and file with talk of flat taxes.
Now you have Bachmann, who’ll be getting plenty of free air time just by being the biggest remaining Tea Party darling. Voter enthusiasm plays a big deal in primaries, and I’m fairly certain there’s absolutely none behind Mittens. The next twelve months or so look to be verrrrrrrrry interesting for the national GOP.
Before dismissing Bachman, let’s remember just how frickin’ awful Romney was as a candidate in 2008 and that he hasn’t really improved all that much. He may be better at campaigning than Pawlenty, but Romney is the phoniest politician I’ve ever seen. At least George Bush the Elder could be appear halfway sincere in mid-pander but to paraphrase Mary McCarthy, every word out of Romney’s mouth seems like a lie…including “and” and “the”.
If Bachmann wins Iowa she’ll get a boost of about 10% in New Hampshire. It happened to Huckabee and Obama who almost beat Clinton after all (that is, until she cried, or so they say). At least in this poll, Romney can’t improve his 2007 numbers, very strange. The republican field lacks a military Republican (like McCain) and a law-and-order Republican (like Giuliani).
“They would call it the “Sisterhood of the Traveling Crazy Pants” and it would be unstoppable (mostly because they would no doubt hire bus drivers that didn’t understand how to work the brakes.)”
If i were retired i swear i would be going door to fucking door in New Hampshire recruiting people and support for Bachmann Tea-Partier Overdrive. It would be awesome.
…unless the Party of Stupid™ actually wrecks the US’s credit next month, causing another terrible recession.
in which case i’d just turn the car north and pop in the Creedence.
Absolutely. I doubt that Bachmann will be able to overtake Romney, but she is not really comparable to Palin. Sure they’re both crazy and stupid, but their personalities are very different. Bachmann is a “true believer”, and a happy one at that. She’s also a hard worker; she’ll press the flesh and work every diner and church picnic until the money runs out. Unlike Palin, she’s not afraid to go on TV and answer questions, and while her answers are scary, her diction and syntax do actually comport with the rules of standard English. She’s going to draw big crowds and enjoy herself immensely. The only enjoyment Palin gets out of politics is using it to get revenge on her perceived enemies (while collecting a paycheck, of course).
Can the money beat the crazy is a good question – but will it have to be answered? Between FOX and the Kochs there’s nooooo shortage of money willing to push the crazy over the sane. Remember, the Kochs are true believers who funded every utterly batshit tea party loser. All they care about is defeating the communists and elders of Zion. Also, that was not a joke.
But I honestly, truly think the big question will be ‘who does Rush endorse?’. I remember the party Elite forced to genuflect to him again and again in 2009 vividly.
Once again I have to say, despite the warnings I’ve read, this wingnut bitch just doesn’t scare me at all. I just can’t see her doing well nationally against the President.
1 No. The 2 parties in winner-takes-all systems are really hard to break. Hence no non-Dem or Rep prez since 1853. The losing party simply looks for the easiest faction to steal from the winning party, and back and forth.
2 She will, but that will be remedied by removing her, not the by gargantuan task of starting a majority party from scratch.
3 She could. Perot. Nader.
4 Yes, could happen, but Party-Tardiers constitute what, 28ish%? So even if half of them defected it would give her 14%. And that’s a high estimate. They hate that ni–uh, the president, and would be worried about splitting the vote.
for additional reading:
Once again I have to say, despite the warnings about her I’ve read (saying that we shouldn’t be laughing too loud at her), she just doesn’t scare me at all. I don’t see her doing well at all nationall against the President.
Rush’s endorsement doesn’t mean that much. He spent the entire 2008 primary cycle going after McCain. Those 20 million listener per week aren’t discreet entities, but rather the same 4-5 million per day. My retired brother listens to Rush every day and has Fox on exclusively, yet he doesn’t bother to vote. I’ve always suspected that Republican politicians who speak ill of Rush and then have to go on his show to kiss his ass are doing it to get dittoheads off the phone in order to give their staffs some peace.
Forget Iowa and NH. Mittens is toast in Iowa because social cons always win in Iowa (Pat Robertson, anyone?) and NH doesn’t look so good for him either because his numbers there have nowhere to go but down. This early in primary season a candidate’s numbers reflect name recognition as much as popularity. Mittens has already maxed out his name recognition in NH seeing as how he was the Gov. of the next state over (and the less said about his approach to healthcare policy back then, the better). That leaves the SC primary for Mitten’s first chance to score a real victory over the rest of the field. Hmmm, the terrain there might not work so well for him either, unless he manages to re-invent himself as a born-again Neo-Confederate (My father? The civil rights movement? I have no idea what you are talking about). Which leaves him limping into Super Tuesday with no real momentum fighting against whoever is the media darling of the moment. So for Mittens it is either going to be win big on Super Tuesday or go home. If he manages to split the difference between those two outcomes, then the primaries turn into long drawn out war of
Looking forward to hearing more about how Huntsman and Pawlenty (who trail Bachmann even combined) are the only realistic challengers to Romney.
Anybody have a comparison in fundraising between Huckabee (07-08) and Bachmann (today)?
The polling numbers in New Hampshire are pretty meaningless right now. But Bachmann is sitting right where Obama was sitting four years ago. I don’t know what kind of money she can raise, but she will be the best campaigner in the GOP field by a mile. Her problem will be organizational. She has some loyal followers, but I think she struggles keeping staff. I imagine that will be her Achilles heel. Running a presidential campaign is a huge undertaking and I imagine the Republican power brokers will stop her by making sure that anyone with any skill and ambition stays away if they know what’s good for them in the future. I remember that while I figured Clinton would get the nomination 4 years ago, I took Obama seriously. I always follow campaigns on CSPAN’ s Road to the White House. You see full events, and there are no talking heads. At this point in 2007, Obama was running the most professional campaign I’d ever seen. The attention to detail was really kind of amazing. Bachmann won’t be able to win the nomination because she won’t attract a staff that can make it happen.
Pretty sure Bachmann’s already swamping Huck’s fundraising. One of the reasons his ’08 Iowa win came as such a surprise was that he raised/spent like 15 bucks on it.
i was so pleased to be informed of this that i ran 20 red lights in your honor.
thank you, balloon juice.
thank you, doug.
ah, fuck, i really oughtta read the comments before i post to see if anyone’s done the joke.
i can’t give it away on 7th avenue….