Joshua Tucker of Washington Monthly makes the case that a default would help Republicans politically:
[I]f events in the next month or two have an adverse effect on the US economy over the next year, it is probably the president who plays an electoral price, not the opposition that controls a single house of Congress.Which brings me back to my original point: why should we even be expecting the Republican party to try to prevent the US from defaulting on its debt? From a purely political perspective, shouldn’t this be gold for the opposition?
If there’s a default, Cokie Fred Hiatt and David Von Drehle and the rest will blame both sides equally. Nevertheless, I think that voters will be likely to blame Republicans slightly more. Maybe not enough more to make up for the fact that presidents generally get blamed for a bad economy, though.
Nevertheless — and Tucker touches on this in his piece too — I just can’t see the Galtians allowing the teatards to do this. For all the talk about internecine fighting among wingers, they stick together on the big stuff. This is just symbolic bullshit for the teatards, no different than a bill to condemn Sharia law or teh gay, but it’s deathly important for the Galtians.
Silver Owl
Not many people can grasp that while some voter who rely on traditional media for their information, not every one is deaf, dumb and blind to the damage the republicans are purposely inflicting on the United States for their petty egos and worthless skills.
RAM
The problem is that they won’t blame both sides equally because Obama’s a Democrat. If the balloon goes up, they’ll blame the Democrats for their radical left wing demands while bemoaning Obama’s refusal to engage in bipartisanship. Watch and see…
Davis X. Machina
@RAM: The balloon, if it goes up, will go up in a cloud of media FUD the likes of which no man living has ever seen.
The importance of the issue is inversely proportional to the clarity and intelligence of the coverage. It’s very important to people who own the megaphones that the rest of us don’t understand what’s going on.
Ash Can
Unless the Galtians have genuinely lost control of the monster they created. (I think that’s unlikely, but I consider it a possibility. And my prognostications have been wrong before.)
arguingwithsignposts
If there’s a default, cokie and the rest of the villagers will be saying so using a piece of cardboard while they stand at an intersection shouting at random passersby.
One can dream.
alwhite
The problem is that by playing this game they move the boundarys of what is acceptable and what is expected even further. Like so much of the garbage being pumped out in Wisconsin, Ohio and Indiana by the wingnuts it stops being a game and becomes a requirement. The Gaultians are dangerously close to losing control of the monster they created & it could quite easily take us all down with them.
Han's Big Snark Solo
Yeah, but the teatards don’t know this. The teatards got their “Sharia Law scares my Depends Under Garments into the fully loaded position” law. They get to complain about how teh gays all the time. Wouldn’t this be the opposite of those two non-troversies in that it would be denying the teatards something they really want (the destruction of the American economy.)
cat48
CBS POLL 71% Disapprove of Republican Handling of Debt Ceiling; including 51% of Repubs. polled! 21% approve
48% Disapprove of Obama’s handling, while 43% approve
Sort of a lose/lose for everyone.
Cassidy
They’ve already lost control.
Davis X. Machina
It doesn’t matter what you intend to do, what matters is what happens.
None of the chanceries in the late summer of WWI was hell-bent on starting a general European war…
alwhite
Ash can – I was delayed in posting so you snuck in ahead of me – great minds and all that :)
The difference seems to be I have come to always expect the worst. I have been expecting the monster to take over for 6-8 years now as they have gotten stronger and more demanding. How will the MOtU ever talk them down? I hope you are right but I believe we have already moved beyond that hope. Always an optimist me.
dpcap
So apparently the 27 percenters are now 26%. (Quinnepiac says 25%.)
alwhite
DXM – to abuse another already beaten to death meme:
THIS!
BO_Bill
alwhite is exactly right. You are all doomed and will shortly be forced to go out and find a job. Teabaggers reign supreme.
arguingwithsignposts
@dpcap – margin of error. Needs more data.
Trurl
Watch for a replay of the Bush tax cuts extension. At the last minute, Obama will agree to entitlement cuts with no raise in tax rates, saying that he’s not happy with that but he can’t allow people to be hurt by a default.
Every word will be a lie. And the ‘bots will swallow it whole.
Lawnguylander
I wouldn’t count on Galtian overlords prevailing on enough of the teahadists in the House to make a deal. Any teabagger freshman GOP rep has to consider that if he votes to raise the debt ceiling, he’s likely to get primaried by a teabaggier than thou opponent in 2012. The support of wealthy donors can more likely be won back or replaced than the support of crazy primary voters feeling stabbed in the back. They’re trapped.
jinxtigr
Trurl: aren’t you guys paid Republican operatives?
(expected reply: oh goodness no, next you’ll be telling us that Rupert Murdoch spies on people)
Davis X. Machina
@Lawnguylander: There’s an interesting short article by Sarah Binder over on The Monkey Cage. Nickle version — existing understanding of how Congress operates is rooted in a model where everyone is gaming getting re-elected. The behavior of the body when everyone’s gunning to get re-nominated is not yet well-understood.
Rhoda
Sometimes, shit happens.
This could be one of those times; you never know. That’s the thing that’s been at the back of my mind; everyone knows a deal has to happen and it’s not anywhere close to happening because the freshman GOP are insane enough to actually WANT this crisis to happen and spur the destruction of the federal government.
ant
@17 jinxtigr
i always assume so when i see such comments.
liberal
Re blame, there’s another post at The Monkey Cage that’s relevant.
…oops, same article as the one the frontpager posted.
dpcap
@arguingwithsignposts
True, true.
Cassidy
In the long run, this ends two way: Conservatives die out naturally over the next couple of generations, or they finally grow the balls to start their civil/ race war. At least the second one gives an opportunity to let out some aggression.
Chris
Not exactly. There weren’t any congressmen threatening to torpedo the entire economy and nation just to pass their gay-bashing and Muslim-bashing bills.
I think losing control of the base has indeed become a real risk, and this is the first major example of that.
ETA: alwhite @ 6 explains it perfectly.
BO_Bill
Working really isn’t that bad; it’s actually kind of nice. It forces you to get out of bed, clean up, and put on clothes each work day. There is also a strong social incentive to have several different outfits. If you don’t shower regularly or use deodorant you are provided with someone called a ‘boss’ who will help coach you on personal hygiene. For many, this can help in dating.
Linda Featheringill
Since the elections don’t actually take place until next year, what happens to News Corp will be a factor. If a general shakeup occurs and news outlets obtain new and not-so-connected owners, there may be more variety in reporting.
Yes, I’m a dreamer but I really do think this could be significant.
Southern Beale
Of course! It’s always good news for Republicans!!!!!
{ hurl }
That is the stupidest thing I ever read. The only people who won’t blame the Republicans are the idiotic Teabaggers who voted for them. If we default and the predicted chaos happens, everyone will blame the Republicans for inflicting a second economic meltdown on the global economy. They’ve been riding a high of “WE WON! WE WON!” since 2010, the media has been flogging Cantor and Boehner on every Sunday show, a Dem has to get arrested before Meet The Press will condescend to book them on a roundtable. Republicans will OWN THIS MESS no matter how hard they try to blame the black man in the white house.
Cassidy
I’ve spent the last 13 years serving my country, going to war, and serving in two combat zones. What the fuck have you done?
Lolis
@Trurl:
I hope you come back here when you end up being wrong.
Ash Can
@alwhite: My gut feeling is that money still talks loudly enough, and is powerful enough, to throw a net over the brain-damaged wing of the GOP in the end. But that’s only my gut feeling. If the brain damage — as opposed to merely the usual pettiness, venality, corruption, etc. — is extensive enough in the GOP, I’ll be wrong. For the sake of the entire fucking world, I hope I’m not. (It’s ironic how we find ourselves on the same side as our Galtian overlords, for once, when threatened with
an alien attacksheer criminal insanity.)Ash Can
@Lolis: Trurl will certainly be back, acting as if nothing ever happened, and spouting more bullshit about something completely unrelated.
OzoneR
In a “pox on both houses” scenario, Republicans win by…no pun intended…default.
Davis X. Machina
@Southern Beale: Don’t bet against sloth. It’s easier and less work to blame one man than 240 men and women. Especially if he’s, ahem, dark.
Scratch many, if not most Americans — and it’s not a lefty-righty thing, either — and you’ll find a monarchist. Hell, most people. If the crops don’t grow, the King has lost the Mandate of Heaven.
BO_Bill
I’ve only been in one combat zone, but have also been married. I had to sit through a technical writing class once with a violent lesbian teacher who would not let you use the word ‘history’ because of its sexist nature. Life for me has not been exactly a bowl of chocolate ice cream, Cassidy my friend. Now I just work in a warehouse.
I’m telling you it is not that bad. Bring on the default.
MarkJ
The teatards don’t have anything but symbolic bullshit. They’re obviously not interested in governing, and they don’t care about workable policies or government programs. The danger is that basically they’ll go to the mat for this because this is the kind of thing they go to the mat for, and there won’t be enough corporatists to overcome their intransigence.
aisce
tarp, dude. tarp.
republicans aren’t a financial monolith. ron paul may be the loudest racist, isolationist, xenophobic, goldbug teabagger, but there’s dozens more like him in congress.
they don’t believe in global neoliberal capitalism. they believe in white supremacy. and while corporate skimming and theft is cool, racking up debt to brown and yellow people decidedly isn’t.
catclub
Chris @ 23 “Not exactly. There weren’t any congressmen threatening to torpedo the entire economy and nation just to pass their gay-bashing and Muslim-bashing bills.”
I suspect that was only because they had not yet found the opportunity. This may be their revolt against the repeal of DADT.
I think it is actually their revolt in response to being rolled on the continuing resolution/ budget cuts. $365M instead of $32B instead of $39B has got to sting.
It is a revolt in ignorance. they only ‘know’ that if they approve ANY agreement with Obama it will turn out that he got the bette rhalf of the deal.
catclub
aisce @ 37 “racking up debt to brown and yellow people decidedly isn’t.[cool]”
But defaulting on it is!
Chris
Ash Can,
Even if you’re right, it’s not the end of it. If the money wins, it’ll have to do so by overruling the teabaggers. And this is in public on the national scene with everyone watching. The teabaggers are going to come out of this feeling betrayed and slapped in the face, and they’re not going to forgive or forget. Except another vicious round between the realists and the lunatics, probably fairly soon, and the lunatics have a ton of riled-up votes to back them up.
artem1s
you wouldn’t think so but didn’t they go for default in the 1870’s and 1890’s rather than reign in their own stupid desire to own everything and everyone? Weren’t they on their way there when Hoover got ousted and FDR took over?
Martin
Yeah, but that’s not what matters going into an election. If there’s a default, the GOP base will do exactly what everyone expects: turn out and vote Republican. So yeah, a default gets the 27%ers out and gets them to vote Republican. Big fucking deal – they were going to do that already. The moderates/independents tend to judge Congress not on what they deliver but whether they simply do their fucking jobs, and a default would be the mother of all not-doing-your-fucking-job measures. They and the Dems will take Obama at his word, and 2012 will be a landslide election for Obama.
What could fuck that up is if Obama overplays his hand and vetoes what Congress sends him or fails to make his case to the public. I don’t see either of those things happening.
OzoneR
You’re assuming the other 73% are voting? They’ll probably stay home in big numbers because “both sides do it” and that 27% quickly becomes 51%.
Cassidy
wonkie
For the voters who blame both parties the next election will be an anti-incumbent election. I don’t know how that will effect things. The last election was an anti-incumbent elelction, ot a a pro-Republican one, but it sure helped the Rethugs.
Martin
After a default, I think the other 73% will vote. If you assume that the public cares enough about a default to blame one side or another, then they’ll turn out to vote. If you don’t think they’ll turn out to vote, then they won’t give a shit about the default a year from now and it doesn’t matter who gets blamed.
You can’t have it both ways. You can’t stress over who gets blamed and then declare but ‘nobody will care’.
vtr
@BO bill
I’m sorry. I’m not sure I got your point. Please explain.
OzoneR
For who? they blame everybody. I don’t think they won’t care, I think they’ll blame everyone, declare it hopeless and disengage.
Unless you think they’ll vote for a Republican President and Democratic congress, which is utterly pointless.
Martin
Anti-incumbent elections affect incumbents. Duh. In the House that hurts the GOP because they have more incumbents. In the Senate it hurts the Dems because they have more incumbent seats up for re-election.
But I think this is all too simplistic. You have a number of states going through a case of the shits because they elected teatard governors and legislatures, and they seem to be universally regretting that decision. No way that doesn’t carry over in 2012. I don’t see the GOP having a strong hand in MN, WI, OH, IN, FL, NJ possibly MI, NH and PA no matter what happens nationally. Dem governors and legislatures are sitting pretty by comparison. Cuomo’s favorables are nearly the opposite of Scott’s.
I think 2012, the tea party loses their weight when the electorate returns for the Presidential race, and they lose ground.
Chris
If it was that simple, 2008 would have featured Republicans winning in Congress the same way they lost in the Presidency. Instead, the public just blamed Bush, e.g. Republicans. It usually takes at least a couple cycles for the blame to shift from one party to the other.
But the teabagger House may have made themselves an exception to the rule by picking fights so openly, publicly and consistently with the White House, thus leaving themselves open to the same kind of public backlash that hurt the Gingrich Congress.
TRNC
Why should we believe that the elected teabaggers would listen to the corporate overlords, considering that teabaggers are the “I hate everyone” crowd? Going against the corporations could well be a feather in the cap of a house republican.
Dennis SGMM
One of the of the worst aspects of this GOP-created crisis is that any future debt ceiling increase will be a hostage negotiation with a lunatic when a Democrat sits in the White House. Because Democrats are the sane ones and Republicans are not, bit by bit we’re losing ground.
BO_Bill
OK, I’ll explain. Only around half of American adults work (59% of the whites and 51% of the blacks). Despite this fact, we still have to run sob stories about Georgia farmers not being able to get their crops fixed because there is not enough labor. So we have to import labor from the 3rd world to pick these stupid vegetables for the farmers who do not want to pay decent wages.
This sounds great for the farmers but what the farmers and race-replacement crowd do not tell you is that by saving $3/hr in labor costs, a cost of $25k/year/imported vegetable picker family is imposed on warehouse workers and other taxpayers.
The stupid federal government enables all this nonsense through the unsustainable welfare state but the laws of economics are starting to kick in. These laws can be denied, but the consequences of denying them cannot be denied. This all ends with Martin losing his cushy government job and being sent to the field to pick my tomatoes, and me paying an extra $0.25 per tomato.
I don’t have any idea what DougJ is going to do. Maybe he can clean things.
t
disaster is just opportunity. who profits? why is everyone so certain that investment banks (and more importantly, large hedge funds) don’t want default?
liberal
@31 Ash Can wrote,
I think the money definitely would override the craziness factor.
What’s interesting is that the money has made no real attempt to do so.
Nothing has preventing the filthy parasitic overclass from taking out ads now against the teatards, threatening now to primary them and, if that fails, to support their Democratic opponent, etc.
While I think TPTB definitely want the debt limit increased, it’s interesting the lengths they don’t seem willing to go to to that end, versus the ones they’re willing to go to to get their taxes cut.
So far all I’ve seen is some whiny op-eds or public interviews by people like Bill Gross and maybe Warren Buffett.
Martin
I didn’t think 2008 was an anti-incumbency election. That was wonkies line of thought. Take it up with him.
liberal
BO_Bill wrote,
BO Bill finds a nut!
Though I don’t think it’s so simple: if wages for pickers were increased, some say that we’d just import more.
Somehow this part about taxpayer burden seems pretty unlikely.
Well, that would be one silver lining—we wouldn’t have to suffer from Martin’s ignorant and arrogant comments here anymore.
Cain
@Southern Beale:
The flip side is that they’ll blame Obama/Democrats and will be on Meet the Press and other talk shows constantly with no Democrat in sight to defend. In the end, people will just go with Republican talking points. Yes, we are that dumb as a nation.
liberal
@ cat48 wrote,
Not so clear. When I saw those numbers I thought it looked pretty good for Obama and pretty bad for the GOP.
liberal
35 BO_Bill wrote,
Wow. I can’t imagine the suffering.
BO_Bill
It was pretty bad.
Just Some Fuckhead
@liberal:
He’d figure out a way to surf the ‘net all day. I’ve met folks like him before. They work harder to get out of work than they would if they’d just do the work.
...now I try to be amused
I don’t know if the Tea Party caucus will vote against raising the debt ceiling more out of fear of being primaried, or because they see themselves as Mr. Smiths Gone to Washington. Either scenario is scary.
And I understand the teabaggers control a lot of the low-level party apparatus. Could this be the GOP’s Whig implosion moment?
alwhite
If BO_Bill has a point it is only when he has his formal hood on for the big meetin’
We were doing quite well at ignoring the ignoramus there for a bit. I suggest we go back to giving him all the attention he deserves – which is to say, none.
Anyone taking odds that BO_Bill and good ‘ol brick head bill are one and the same?
Judas Escargot
@Cain:
Only wonks and bloggers watch (or care about) Meet the Press. And the MSM’s power to ‘create reality’ does have limits. The fact that this is going on just as Murdoch’s empire is under siege across the pond will have more effect on public trust of the media over here than they expect, also, too.
If the MTP set decides to go all-in for the GOP, they may very well find the public turning on them, as well.
jinxtigr
Because the global financial system is a house of cards, ‘leveraged’ way beyond the value of every thing in the world by a factor of what, thirty? The only thing that is holding it together is shared hallucination.
I’m not talking about the stuff regular people have and use, I’m talking WEALTH- what the banksters and politicians have. They have ‘wealth’ or ‘value’ that can be exchanged for goods and services, and they have lots of it- I mean LOTS of it. On paper.
Imaginary money. It exists only because everyone agrees that it exists.
A default and a global crash wipes out that leverage, which again is something like thirty to one. Regular people owning regular things get squeezed, as we expect- but the really rich get absolutely boned. They have to convert the shared hallucination of their ‘wealth’ into something with ongoing value. Such as? What do they do with the ‘wealth’ when it is thirty times the value of everything on the god-damned planet?
No, they do not want a default. They lose worst. That’s the one thing they don’t want. You can only hedge and play the market if there IS a market to play. Otherwise it’s like ten billion mark notes.
Kane
For decades, Republicans have taken every opportunity to paint the Democratic party as the party of government, while portraying themselves as the party opposing government. Kudos to them for their successful narrative.
But there’s one problem that results from this narrative. If there is a default and a government shutdown, the American public will always blame Republicans, as it makes no logical sense that the party of government would want to shutdown government. Instead the blame will fall squarely on the party that proudly opposes government and wants to drown it in the bathtub. No amount of spin can change that narrative now.
Martin
How sweet, BOB found an ally. Liberal, if you want BOB tongue, grow out the armpit hair and buy a tractor. And it never hurts to have a good source for low-cost pizza components.
And sorry BOB, but I’m pretty close to the last guy out the door here.
Kane
There are ample videos on YouTube with Republican congress members and tea partiers cheering Shut it Down. There’s plenty of Republicans on the record denying the seriousness of default. There’s David Brooks questioning whether the Republican party is a “normal party” and David Frum lamenting that “Republican fanaticism” will have caused this default.
Too much has been said to even attempt to place the blame on President Obama. Republicans know it.
Ash Can
@liberal: Just because you can’t see it doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. Remember, we’re on the outside looking in, and we can’t see behind closed doors.
And anyway, there’s no real point to Wall Street appealing directly to the public right now. There are no elections to be decided between now and August 2, so why waste time, money and effort? Why bother telling voters to hammer on their elected representatives when you can pick up the phone and hammer on them far more effectively yourself (although I admit that the two efforts aren’t mutually exclusive)? And talking publicly about primarying these guys would put the money guys in a public spotlight that they really don’t want to be in.
Maybe you don’t realize it, but those “whiny op-eds,” Warren Buffet, and a multitude of other economic actors have been giving us plenty of indication that they’re engaged in the debate, and their position is clear. Above all, though, it doesn’t really matter if you or I or the general public realize it, because we’re not the audience, at least at this point.
aimai
We’ll know they are serious about moving the dial when Rush Limbaugh and Fox News start running frantic economics spots about how important the debt ceiling lift is. Until then I won’t believe that the Warren Buffets and the Kochs are serious about getting this thing done, and I won’t believe it will get done.
aimai
Catsy
@BO_Bill:
Most of us discovered these exciting fun facts fairly early in life, but good on you for finally catching up. Now if you could just work on your other antisocial habits–like conservatism–you’ll be getting somewhere.
Canuckistani Tom
@69 Kane
On that note, start saving some of these Youtube vids and other gems. If it all falls apart, these vids will be yanked and disappear down the memory hole overnight, and you’ll need these clips in the upcoming election
t
I don’t think the various players think this way. No one in the markets worries about nurturing the long term health of the markets. If there was some self-preservation instinct in the market, it probably would have shown itself before the global banking system went insolvent in 2008.
I hope you’re right though.
bob h
How much will a Presidency mired in a renewed Great Recession be worth to Mitt Romney, when none of the absolutist Republican dogmas will allow him to do anything about it? I can’t believe any of them is nuts enough to want to inherit an economic holocaust.
joeshabadoo
Republicans will get smacked around by this because of the memes they’ve been pushing for years.
They’ve been talking about “tax and spend liberals” for so long that too many people will find it impossible to believe that they would shut down the economy over the deficit and spending. Republicans have been beating the “no spending” drum for far too long.
When the money runs out and spending can’t continue people will automatically blame republicans because cutting spending or pretending to has been a tenet of the party for years.
Friday Jones
Love, love will tear us apart, again.