North Carolina’s GOP is on the job:
What began as an adjustment involving five N.C. counties on Tuesday turned into a congressional map that jumbles districts across the state and pits four Democrats against other incumbents.
Republican lawmakers had promised a ripple effect when they began redrawing their 2-week-old map.
“That ripple effect turned out to be a tidal wave,” said Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at Salisbury’s Catawba College.
Among other things, the latest GOP plan would:
— Move Democratic U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of the 13th District into the 4th District represented by U.S. Rep. David Price, also a Democrat.
— Put Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike McIntyre of the 7th District into fellow Democratic U.S. Rep. Larry Kissell’s 8th District.
— Extend the eastern 1st District into Durham County, not Wake.
— Dramatically reshape the 2nd, 7th and 6th districts. The 6th District, represented by Republican Rep. Howard Coble, would gain eight new counties while taking much of the footprint of the current 13th District.
The new districts would shape N.C. politics for at least a decade. Legislative committees are scheduled to vote on the congressional and legislative redistricting plans this week. The full General Assembly is scheduled to vote next week.
You can view the maps here. This one is going to court. I know why they do it, because they are trying for as much advantage as possible, but it ought to be a law that computer models just make districts as even as possible.
The one upside is that Shuler’s district is becoming more heavily Republican, so maybe he will switch parties and become their problem or lose. Either one is acceptable to me. That also may be why he was looking into going to the UT Athletic Department to bring his special brand of incompetence to their sports program.
NobodySpecial
Next time I hear you screaming about purity and Firebaggers, I want you to remember this quote.
aimai
Its just staggeringly awful how much of our democracy is left up to local malfeasance: voter registration, districting, voting itself. I’ve worked as a clerk of the elections and we always do our best but the rules for who votes where–let alone the rules for how the districts are drawn and redrawn–are arcane and designed to disenfranchise voters on a regular basis.
aimai
aimai
NobodySpecial – July 20, 2011 | 12:49 pm · Link
That’s silly. There is the same difference between John’s observation and Firebagger hysteria as there is between wishing that someone would die and actively trying to kill them.
aimai
Dave
I can’t imagine Gov. Purdue is going to sign off on this.
NobodySpecial
Oh yeah, in other news; Illinois Democrats did the same thing to Republicans. It will be a bloodbath, and part of the reason why redistricting won’t guarantee a new wave for the GOP.
Napoleon
I know that sounds good, but exactly what does it mean in practice? For example do you try to make each district, as practicable as possible, reflect the partisan balance of the state or are you going for straight lines and compactness. Note that if it is the second it has the effect of causing Dems to be underrepresented (what happens currently) because they tend to be found in high density areas. So you end up with a few Dem districts where you could run Hitler’s dog with a “D” after his name and he would win and a bunch of Rep leaning districts.
NobodySpecial
@aimai: No, no, no, m’lady.
Silly is pretending that there’s a difference between ‘Firebagger’ hopes that centrist Dems like Lincoln, Landrieu, and Nelson get ousted through primaries and Cole’s hopes that redistricting makes a seat GOP without a primary.
If you want to argue that any D > any R, which is the standard rejoinder to Progressives who complain about Blue Dogs, then you shouldn’t be willing to kick Shuler out without being labeled a hypocrite.
MobiusKlein
I think it’s time for at-large districts?
Or at least for large states, half at large, half regional?
cmorenc
@John Cole:
Heath Schuler’s is a long way from my cup of tea, either. However, in Schuler’s district (as it more or less has been pre-2010 census redistricting), he’s unfortunately about as good as it gets while still being electable by drawing enough votes in the red areas outside Asheville. You clearly don’t know the history of that district, in which a TRULY odious GOP congressman, Charles Taylor, held the district for years. Taylor was hard right-wing, anti-environmental everything and government-must-get out of the way of business and with the social conservatives on every issue, only he didn’t make himself into a grandstanding public spectacle of idiocy like e.g. Virginia Fox or Patrick McHenry.
celticdragonchick
The teabaggers (IE Virginia Foxx and her Krazy Klub) really made gains last year here in NC, and they are busy rigging the system to make sure it will be impossible to dislodge them.
Han's Big Snark Solo
Arrghh, you freaked me out. I thought you meant University of Texas! The Longhorns, and Austin, don’t need that, don’t want that and hopefully would never allow that!
jwest
Without the fine art of gerrymandering, the country would be deprived of some of the best minds in the Congress…
…and we would still be unaware of the possibility that Guam could tip over.
Nate
@Dave- Perdue can’t veto it. Redistricting in NC doesn’t need the Governor’s approval. That’s one the reasons the GOP can be so extreme here.
monkey knife fight
Sha! Like the Vols need any more help in that department.
cmorenc
@Dave:
Do Perdue’s veto powers extend to redistricting plans? She and the NC democrats have been strangely silent so far about this potential option, if it exists.
Bulworth
Shuler was one of a handful of teabag Democrats to vote for the just passed Cap, Kill and UnBalance budget busting bill.
Dave
@Nate – Well, that’s just depressing as Hell. Does the Voting Rights Act come into play here? Because I would bet the GOP is either spreading the minority vote super-thin or packing them into as few districts as possible.
jibeaux
@ #1 Shuler was one of five whole democrats to vote for the teabag bill, as Bulworth noted. Against the ACA, etc. While it was already a tough district for a Democrat and he could be excused some stupidity, as a Democrat, he’s completely useless. The firebagger types can’t make the distinction between that, and partly-useless-but-probably-the-best-we-can-do-from-that-district.
askew
Voting Rights Act does apply to NC and there will likely be a lawsuit over it.
Just Some Fuckhead
@jibeaux:
Yes, it sounds difficult enough that we should probably check with you in each case.
Martin
Well, here’s what CA has done:
The commission is a bit complicated, but its made up of 8 commissioners who apply for the job, applicants can be vetoed by the legislature, and the remaining applicants are then selected by a panel based on relevant skills, diversity (geographic and otherwise) and so on. Those 8 are trained and then choose 6 members to fill out the commission – designed so they can add expertise, etc.
Generally speaking, the districts are being drawn up along similar economic and demographic lines. So urban and agricultural areas aren’t smashed together into one district with competing interests. All the big money coastal folks are getting their district. Suburban cities form a district, and so on. While that sounds like it will make districts more partisan than currently, another part of the commissions charge is when an opportunity presents itself to make districts more balanced. Simply put, they aren’t doing the electoral math to marginalize voting groups, which is really what gerrymandering is designed to do.
Another part of the effort was to move to a different runoff system where the two primary candidates with the most votes move onto the general, regardless of party. The intent is that in a deep red or blue district, you won’t be advantaged to run out to the extremes to win the primary and then saddle the general population with batshit positions, because in a heavily leaning district that losing candidate in the primary will follow you to the general and if they lost the primary on moderate views, they may win the general on those views.
The requirements for the maps are as follows:
I won’t pretend it’s perfect or anything, but it’s a shitload better than just turning it over to a political party.
dpcap
I had no idea NC was so blue to begin with. I always assumed it was 95% red.
Martin
Obama won NC by about half a percent.
Don SinFalta
Oh, the University of Tennessee sports program. You had me worried for a minute, the University of Texas sports program already has more than its quota of incompetence, thank you.
jl
@21: The new California system will be interesting to watch. I heard an election expert (who said he was non partisan) interviewed in the radio who predicted a 4 to 5 Democratic seat pick up in state legislature if the final plans looked like the initial proposals.
That sounds odd since the Democrats controlled both chambers during the last redistricting. But CA political activists have told me that CA state Democrats basically cooperated with GOP in effort to protect incumbents in the previous redistricting, and that some state GOP charity case districts were very gerrymandered.
So, if nonpartisan commission districts do result in several state GOPpers losing their seats, in the cause of old fashioned, high minded, responsible (and extinct) GOP reform googooism, that would be nice.
Issue now, as I understand from Calitics, is fact that state commission may be sued and the final maps would really would be done by judges. Apparently the GOP will sue if they think they will lose seats.
After recent CA GOP behavior, I find it difficult to believe the CA Democrats in the leg would do them any favors in this redistricting. But, on other hands, a map made by judges based on commission could be OK.
” But that doesn’t mean that judges may not end up making the maps. Tom Del Beccaro, the CRP Chairman has been making noises about how the maps favor Democrats. Apparently he wants districts carved out for his legislators, and doesn’t like the fact that the districts more closely represent the fact that Democrats have a rather sizable registration advantage in the state. I would be pretty shocked if the CRP or some closely related proxy group doesn’t sue shortly after the August 15 due date. He’s basically said as much. ”
This Isn’t Going to Be Easy
by: Brian Leubitz
Wed Jul 20, 2011 at 08:42:06 AM PDT
Redistricting Commission Ready for Legal Attacks
by Brian Leubitz
http://calitics.com/diary/13702/this-isnt-going-to-be-easy
Three-nineteen
@jibeaux: I’ve come to realize that individual Democratic votes may not mean as much as retaining the majority. Just think about it — if 20-odd House members change their affiliation, we get Speaker Pelosi back, all the committee chairs, etc. Even if they continued to vote as if they were Republicans, this is a huge win.
Logan
NC is very blue in the cities and the eastern part of the state…. granted we elected yellow dogs there, but still… .
This map is so insane that the usual mantra of “Well the Democrats did this” isn’t flying with the political class here…now the teabaggers love it but they are stupid as a pig in mud and don’t know anything about anything.
I’m fairly certain that the courts will laugh the map out and force them to redraw it a couple of times. The only thing I am not sure about is what they will do in 2012 if a map hasn’t been approved.
Corner Stone
So are we to understand you would not “crawl over broken glass” to vote for Shuler if you were in NC?
Corner Stone
@NobodySpecial:
Don’t mind aimai. It’s sometimes hard for her to see the point from so far up on her high horse.
Corner Stone
@jibeaux:
“Nothing can be done!”
No, wait…
“Best we can do!”
AAA Bonds
Oh my god, could you be more tone-deaf toward North Carolina?
You know I am not a fucking fan of right-wing Democrats but the shift of Buncombe-Asheville to a Democratic seat was one of the biggest wins for the Dems in 2006.
The Republicans who held that seat before Shuler were an unbroken line of raving lunatics.
In 2004, I lived in Asheville, and I would NEVER have predicted that seat going to a Democrat in the next ten years. The split between the urban center and the surrounding area was far too prominent.
AAA Bonds
@dpcap:
It’s one of the most important battleground states in the entire country. Obama recognizes this, obviously, as does the national party.
Chyron HR
The Firebagger Credo:
1) Primary Obama for being insufficently liberal.
2) Primary Barney Frank for being insufficently liberal. (*)
3) Leave Heath Shuler ALOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONE.
(*) This is what True Progressives actually believe.
AAA Bonds
I mean, look at the Republicans who popped up in Shuler’s seat whenever they could wrest it from the Democrats. Chuck Taylor (anti-gay, anti-environment, attached at the hip to Russia’s shock doctrine), Bill Hendon (conspiracy theorist and POW/MIA nut), and . . . Bill fucking Hendon. AGAIN.
I will readily take Shuler over the alternatives I’ve seen in NC-11.
AAA Bonds
How about everyone who doesn’t know shit about North Carolina try posting on another thread?
Martin
Protecting incumbents of your own party and destroying incumbents of the other is just as much a part of the process. Dems have been knocking at the door of a 2/3 majority in both state chambers for a while – protecting those incumbent seats has been quite important.
I agree it’ll be interesting to watch. It’s relatively open as these things go, and having regular citizens on the commission is pretty interesting as well. Politically there doesn’t seem to be much noise from the commission itself, which is a bit of a surprise. I think knowing that you have to get a majority of votes out of every political group forces things to be much less partisan.
Of course they’ll sue. That’s what they do. But the judges would need to find that the commission violated part of Prop 11, and I doubt they’ll find that, nor do judges like to go against voter initiatives unless they’re clearly out of bounds (like Prop 8). Shit, Prop 11 states right there that voter affiliation and incumbents are to not be considered in the districting. They can’t really expect to win by arguing that the commission did what the voter initiative forced them to do.
Either way, the map is going to toss all incumbents for a loop. Even if they aren’t being forced to run against another incumbent, their district is going to change, so they’re going to have a significant number of new voters to have to reach out to. Given what just happened in the budget, where the Dems bit the bullet and made the spending cuts, it’s hard for independents to see what the GOP message is going to be – they have no power, they contribute nothing. Voting GOP here is now about as useful toward the outcome as voting Green or Libertarian. Why not just pick the Dem that best represents your interests?
AAA Bonds
Here’s another thing worth doing before anyone offers further uninformed opinion: do a little research on redistricting, North Carolina, and the U.S. Supreme Court.
Martin
Correct. The greatest power in the House and Senate is the power to decide what bills get a vote and what bills don’t. And when. If your caucus won’t support a bill, don’t bring it to a vote, don’t have your committees vote it out of committee.
To a large degree, majority power is veto power. It won’t get you what you want, but most of the time you can stop what you don’t want.
Roger Moore
@jl:
The Republicans may sue to overturn the commission’s decision, but that’s no guarantee they’ll win their case. They’ll need to present some actual evidence that the commission produced a map that doesn’t comply with their official mandate, which seems to be lacking. I doubt they’ll manage to accomplish anything more than delaying the inevitable, though that delay might let them prevent the Democrats from getting 2/3 majorities in both houses of the State Legislature for another 2 years.
John PM
Here is the latest from Illinois re: redistricting:
I do not know how they will be able to keep a straight face when making that argument.
John Puma
Three “rewards” for a Democratic president acting like a Republican:
1) Lose the House and almost the Senate
2) Influx of frankly fascist governors
3) Lose control of lots of state legislatures resulting in “unfavorable” redistricting
Roger Moore
@John PM:
Simple, the inability to lie with a straight face comes from shame and guilt about lying. Since the Republican leaders are sociopaths, they lack the moral qualms that might cause them to feel shame or guilt about anything. That makes it easy for them to say anything they like with a perfectly straight face.
jl
“it’s hard for independents to see what the GOP message is going to be”
As far as I can tell, the recent CA GOP messaging has been ‘eff you’. Not sure that will stand up in next election.
I am surprised at their behavior. I think the new CA open primary system is looming and they will have to run against all comers, so would think they would try to moderate their views. Will be interesting to see if any of them, especially the most publicly thuggish extremists, get knocked out by moderates in future open primaries.
Berial
I remember being taught in social studies that Gerrymandering wasn’t legal. I remember looking at my first voting district map about a year later and realizing that my social studies class was full of shit.
Roger Moore
@jl:
Then you haven’t been paying very careful attention. Saying “Fuck You!” to the Democrats has been an important part of the Republican campaign strategy for quite a while, and it’s becoming more and more important as time goes on. The Republican primary could probably be replaced with a public “Fuck You!” screaming contest without a substantial change in outcome. In the places where screaming “Fuck You!” as loud as possible wasn’t a winning strategy, the Republican candidate was going to lose big time anyway.
John X.
The figures I’ve seen suggest that anywhere from a fourth to a third of Western North Carolina’s economy is based on marijuana production*, has the largest per capita gay population on the East Coast and has a huge young hippie/hipster population. The conservative, evangelical types have been pushed out of Buncombe, and the surrounding areas are getting a lot bluer, as well.
* Not a joke. If you visit, you’ll quickly realize that it’s an insanely 420 friendly area.
metalgirl
I live in David Price’s district and will be losing him as my rep if this goes through. HATE THAT!! If others are in the same situation, we ALL need to get involved with our local officials (I am with the Dems in Wake Co) to organize and fight this before it becomes official. If it becomes the law, we must unite and fight even harder to overcome these boundaries for the next 10 years. We must dig in :)