From what I understand, the Japanese stock market starts trading at 8 pm EDT. Boehner has no plan, other than to re-pass Stop, Drop, and Roll, or whatever they call that crazy thing the wingers passed last week. As I said earlier, I wouldn’t blame the Galtian overlords for dumping US Treasuries at this point, would you?
Reader Interactions
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Reality Check
Sucks to be Obama, doesn’t it?
Cain
We are screwed. Looks like I’m going to need to stock up on guns and bullets.
MikeBoyScout
WOLVERINES!!!
Calouste
I think this week’s version is called Crap, Shit and Dump.
Ol' Dirty DougJ
Sucks worse to be Boehner. I don’t see how he’s speaker in 2013 unless he gets his caucus to make a deal. I don’t dislike the guy but he can either (a) do something reasonable and get shivved by Cassius Cantor or (b) blow up the economy and lose tons of seats in 2012.
Felanius Kootea
@Reality Check: Sucks even more to be one of the 300 million Americans other than Obama that a default will affect. I mean even the fact that it’s mostly Republican states that will have their credit ratings cut and interest rates go up immediately in the event of a US sovereign ratings drop doesn’t give the GOP pause. I guess the Republican governors will fire all state workers and do all the jobs themselves.
dmsilev
Sure does. Most previous Presidents got to deal with an opposition that was at least vaguely sane. He hasn’t been so fortunate.
JPL
Vince Cable has launched an extraordinary attack on “rightwing nutters” in America who are trying to block the raising of the US government’s debt ceiling and who are, he said, a bigger threat to the world economy than problems in the eurozone.
Speaking on the BBC1’s Andrew Marr show, the business secretary also suggested the Bank of England may have to engage in more quantitative easing – effectively printing money – as growth stalls. Cable said the deal struck in Europe last week to bail out countries such as Greece and Ireland had been a “significant step forward”, but failed to the fundamental issues.
link Guardian
Cain
oh yeah one piece of good news, it seems that Texas have approved all books with a pure science background as opposed to creationism based ones.
and finally, apparently we can make action figures from photos
Which means if I could get pictures of Boehner it’s possible to get an action figure mwahahaha.. of course.. the other side could get pictures of Obama too I suppose.. but having them will make great stress release
Reality Check
Shorter Felanius Kootea: WAAAAAH! WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! IM GONNA CUT MYSELF! WAAAAH!
If we’re really going to “deafult”, and if its really as bad as Obama says it is, I guess he’ll have no problem signing the Republican plan, right?
dmsilev
Shorter Reality Check: Give us the money, and we won’t shoot the hostage.
Alex S.
Ha! That’s my favorite headline so far.
John Puma
Who will BUY the Treasuries the Galtians want to dump, teabaggers?
Hill Dweller
Are you suggesting Obama is the only one saying it’s going to be bad if we default?
Violet
Excellent post title, DougJ.
JPL
Tom Levenson wrote an article about the rise of Hitler. I think the game Boehner is playing is going to insure the rise of the Tea Party. Where are the jobs????
Felanius Kootea
@Reality Check: Don’t be silly, *everybody* loves pecan pie.
dmsilev
@efgoldman: Reality Check has been around here for a while, unfortunately. But yes, I shouldn’t be feeding the thing. Sorry.
Dexter
Anyone knows what happened to Boner’s new plan that he was supposed to release around 430?
lamh34
Alright, I know this is a serious post discussing serious issues, but can I just say that I love Purple Rain, and “Darling Nicky” is one of my fav songs on that album and from the movie. I used to sing this song when I was much younger, and as an adult I realize now how truly “adult-themed” it was. What the hell does a child need to know aobut “mastubating on a magazine”. Seriously reading the lyrics as an adult and it makes me blush.
Well done Prince!
Sorry, now back to our regularly schedule program
beltane
Between the Norway massacre and the impending default Reality Check can hardly contain his joy. Maybe he’ll be lucky enough to get to see a fatal car accident later today.
Can someone please tell me why M_C was banned but not this person?
Chyron HR
@Reality Check:
At the very least, thank you for channeling your hatred of America into attacking our economy, rather than just butchering children the way your brothers-in-arms do overseas.
mikefromArlington
So Cantor owns stock in a fund that shorts Treasuries. I wonder how many of the Republicans hedge fund buddies are going to clean house on these roller coaster movements of the stock market.
Reality Check
The Speaker is offering smaller cuts in exchange for a debt ceiling increase until 2012. If not raising the debt ceiling by Obama’s birthday is as bad as everyone says it is, I guess he should sign the deal.
Yutsano
@Reality Check: You say this:
One thread down you say this:
Which is it dumbass? You can’t it both ways. Fuckin’ Internetz, how do they work?
steviez314
Actually, when all hell threatens to break loose, the overlords run to US Treasuries.
Who the hell knows what will happen.
As of 5:23pm EDT, $ is down between .25% and .75% vs other currencies (most against Swiss Franc, since they seem to never have any problems, just watches and chocolate)
Reality Check
What the fuck makes you think I approve of cold-blood massacres like the one in Norway? You have no right to do that. I demand an apology.
ruemara
meh. Things is things and I’ll be fine. Honey and multiple mustard chicken on the grill, zucchini slawsa in the fridge and a stack of cookies. Can’t take that away from me. And any bastard who tries to gets to experience my skill and knowledge of toxic plants. If a default is what it takes, or at least a nasty bout of sell off, then that’s what it takes.
dmsilev
@Dexter: My understanding is that Boehner was briefing his maniacs as we speak, and we’ll have to wait a bit for the details to be announced/leaked.
Ol' Dirty DougJ
Have you denounced the shooter yet? Until you do, it would be irresponsible not to speculate about your possible support for the shooter.
Texas Dem
Exactly. According to Fox, House GOPers are telling Boehner that it’s either cut, slash, and burn, or nothing. If that’s true, then we’re definitely headed for a default. But if we head into a default and the GOP is forced to retreat under market pressure (which is inevitable), Boehner will still get the blame. So he’s screwed either way. Better to pass a compromise plan with Dem votes, resign, and go out a hero.
Alex S.
@Reality Check:
Honestly, I think Obama is just trying to expose the Republicans as irresponisble madmen who would rather watch the country collapse than to give Obama a political victory. In the end, he’ll use the 14th amendment.
Though I do think that he’s also willing to fulfill his promise of entitlement reform that he made to moderate voters during the campaign. He’ll accept whatever is going to be useful to him. Maybe Boehner wasn’t even all that wrong when he accused Obama of moving the goalposts. Because in the end, the Republicans can’t win. The debt ceiling is a bad issue to make a last stand on. The Republicans should have made a bigger stand when it came to passing a budget. But they were probably afraid of a replay of the Gingrich shutdown.
Calouste
@Reality Check:
No one suggested that you approved of murdering dozens of people over political differences, but the fact that you think someone did is rather telling.
Yutsano
@Ol’ Dirty DougJ:
I less than three you dude. In a bromance sort of way.
@Alex S.:
All that wonderful drama comes up again in two months too. WHEEEE!!
Reality Check
Shorter Alex S: It’s all 11-D Chess!
Davis X. Machina
@steviez314: I’m packing a child off to study for a year in Switzerland in a month.
On the day he got his acceptance letter from his Swiss uni, the headline on the business page of the local paper’s web site was “Swiss Frank Makes New All-Time High Against Dollar”. The SF was worth $0.80 not too long ago, and was trading at par last year.
I blame my son. Comment dit-on ‘ramen’ en français de la Suisse Romande?
Ella in New Mexico
Bing! Bing! Bing!Bing!Bing! And we have the winner:
>blockquote<I wonder how many of the Republicans hedge fund buddies are going to clean house on these roller coaster movements of the stock market.
They're not dumping.
They're waiting for interest rates to skyrocket, right after we get down graded.
Davis X. Machina
Reality Check is that guy with the pie fetish, right?
Alex S.
@Reality Check:
Everything is! …unless the House GOP tries to pass a clean debt ceiling bill, as it already happened 70 times before.
Ol' Dirty DougJ
Except he wouldn’t go out a hero. Sure, a few Villagers would applaud but, even among them, George Will and Charles Krauthammer would treat him like Osama bin Laden. And the teatards might literally kill him. I would hire a lot of security if I were him and I did that. I mean that as no joke.
eemom
@ Check
well, you know, when you’re chortling in glee over the catastrophe you and your fellow fucktards are prepared to unleash on this country, it’s not a great leap of logic to think you might also sympathize with a mass murderer.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@dmsilev:
FTFY.
BGinCHI
I would have gone with Brutus Cantor.
Cassius Cantor sounds way too cool. He should be so lucky.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
Fantasy Check is still waiting on Wenck and Stiener to ride to the rescue.
Ol' Dirty DougJ
But Brutus is an honorable man.
MattR
It’s a real shame that the Republicans painted themselves into such a corner. The simple and easy thing to do would be to pass an increase to the debt ceiling with a statement that “Although we are unhappy with the current level of government spending, these are obligations that have been properly and legally made by the United States government and our first obligation is to make sure that the United States pays its bills. However, this does not mean that we have abandoned our pledge to reduce government spending as part of future budgets and we will resist all attempts by the Democrats to add a higher tax burden to our job creators.”
Ella in New Mexico
I hate WP. THIS was supposed to be in the block quote, not “blockquote”.
And like I said, none of these monster’s is gonna lose one penny in this.
BGinCHI
Not if your last name is “Caesar.”
scav
on one side of the scale, possible wins in certain upcoming repub primaries: on the other side, the world economy. Which will they choose?
Nylund
The winguts have been going on for years about the need to stock up on canned food, guns, and ammo. I laughed at their fear of such a Mad Max world. But now I’m realizing that vision of the world wasn’t a fear, it was a goal.
And frighteningly, I’ve met enough crazy tea partiers here in the south who would probably be fine with the destruction of the US (and the world) if it meant they got to finally use their stockpile guns on some brown people without any fear of the law.
Go read up on Algiers Point, New Orleans, and you’ll see what I mean.
Ol' Dirty DougJ
Brush up your Shakespeare.
NR
Yeah, if only they would let him cut Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid like he wants to.
Ivan Ivanovich Renko
Who fought to defend the Republic from a would be tyrant. From killing Gaius to his death after losing to Octavian and Antony, Cassius Brutus is exactly the guy Cantor fantasizes he is.
Except for that losing and suicide part, of course.
(ps- IANAH; and this comes from a vaguely remembered HBO series and even more vaguely remembered high school history, and +2 any way, you pedantic bastards)
BGinCHI
Dude, I was snarking. I have a PhD in all things Shax.
Better for Cantor would be two villain/brothers names in The Revenger’s Tragedy: Supervacuo and Ambitioso.
Violet
NZ stock market opens in 15 minutes. Google has the data on 20 minute delay, but news should come out sooner than that.
Brian S
So who’s the Antony in that scenario, DougJ? (And who’s Cleopatra?)
Davis X. Machina
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: While his heroes Boehner and McConnell have their Fieseler Storch warming up on the airstrip in the Tiergarten.
¡Vamos a Buenos Aires, muchachos!
JPL
It appears that Boehner doesn’t have a plan to get this passed. He’s waiting to see if the markets tank. It amazes me that the House Republicans along with the msm are holding us hostage.
BTW..The headline at Huffington is Plenty of Blame and No Deal
I used up decades of swearing Friday night so someone else is gonna hafta tell Huffington to start reporting instead of regurgitating.
BGinCHI
Cleopatra is in a different play, but I’m gonna have to go with Marcus Bachmann on that one.
Dexter
Apparently Obama has a press conference at 6 PM EDT today.
dmsilev
Politico has a summary of Boehner’s call with the House maniacs:
So, to summarize, the only bill that the House will pass is one that it knows is a non-starter.
As far as the standard legislative process goes, I think we’re fucked.
Violet
@Dexter:
That’s right when the NZ markets open. Interesting.
Unabogie
Obama is the only one claiming that default would bring catastrophe, just like Al Gore is the only one claiming Climate Change is real.
But abolishing Medicare to pay for tax breaks for billionaires? Everyone knows that would create gobs of jobs. It’s common sense!
Brian S
Yeah, I was just projecting forward in time, to see how this all plays out in the long run. The other question, if we keep going here, is who’s Octavius/Augustus. Yeesh.
scav
@BGinCHI:
OK, true, but that just leads to who gets to have the Derek Jacobi role with the bear.
BGinCHI
scav, that’s it exactly.
And the money headline when this shit hits the fan will be:
Boehner and Cantor Exit Pursued By a Bear Market.
zagloba
Cantor is definitely Cassius: the highly intelligent useful idiot with a chip on his shoulder.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Reality Check:
Fix’t. No matter what Boehner does, he’s fucked. Then Crazy Cantor gets to rush in and finish driving the party (and country) off of the cliff.
They should call their bill the “Assume The Crash Position Bill”. The only line it would need is: “Put your head between your legs and kiss your ass good bye.”
scav
We’re skipping tracks on plays here rather rapidly if we’ve moved to the coasts of Bohemia so I think Cleo should be allowed back in.
Dee Loralei
@dmsilev: Is that weepy orange fuckface accusing the President of crashing the world economy on purpose?
elftx
saw the following on Calculated Risk..”funny” how Soc.Security has such a large percentage..you can bet your pink pony they want that to default:
Here’s a quick and fascinating breakdown by total amount held and percentage of total U.S. debt, according to Business Insider:
Hong Kong: $121.9 billion (0.9 percent)
Caribbean banking centers: $148.3 (1 percent)
Taiwan: $153.4 billion (1.1 percent)
Brazil: $211.4 billion (1.5 percent)
Oil exporting countries: $229.8 billion (1.6 percent)
Mutual funds: $300.5 billion (2 percent)
Commercial banks: $301.8 billion (2.1 percent)
State, local and federal retirement funds: $320.9 billion (2.2 percent)
Money market mutual funds: $337.7 billion (2.4 percent)
United Kingdom: $346.5 billion (2.4 percent)
Private pension funds: $504.7 billion (3.5 percent)
State and local governments: $506.1 billion (3.5 percent)
Japan: $912.4 billion (6.4 percent)
U.S. households: $959.4 billion (6.6 percent)
China: $1.16 trillion (8 percent)
The U.S. Treasury: $1.63 trillion (11.3 percent)
Social Security trust fund: $2.67 trillion (19 percent)
beltane
@Brian S: Tom Friedman’s Unity Pony unelected 3rd party president will fill the Octavian/Augustus role. We will then be able to look forward to the extended reign of the likes of Caligula, Tiberius and Nero. If all this involves throwing Christians to the lions it might not be a total loss.
WaterGirl
@ BGinCHI
Translation, please!
Dexter
Well 3 minutes past 6 PM EDT. New Zealand markets are opened and I haven’t seen any thing that’s saying the shit is hitting the fan. So far so good.
Dennis SGMM
Just for the hell of it and because I’m tired of worrying about our broken government:
Oh Nikkei you’re so fine,
You’re so fine you blow my mind,
Hey Nikkei!
Hey Nikkei!
eemom
Cantor is neither Brutus nor Cassius. Brutus was sincere; Cassius was cleverly conniving. Cantor is nowhere near either of those things.
If Shakespeare has a character who’s dumber than shit who serves as a useful idiot for people even dumber than he is, that’s him. I just can’t think of one at the moment.
Royston Vasey
Aussie markets open (NZ for past 2hrs)
Mild reaction so far with the Euro gaining against the US dollar in early trading. The US dollar fell to a four-month low against the Japanese yen.
Singapore/HKG/Tokyo yet to officially open
Yutsano
@eemom:
The Duke from Twelfth Night.
Alex S.
@BGinCHI:
It took me until now to get it, but that’s fantastic!
Explanation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winter%27s_Tale#The_Bear
BGinCHI
eemom, well, Lear “did scarcely know himself,” and there’s Bottom the weaver who wants to play all the parts and makes a fool out of himself, and Hotspur is impetuous without having any self-control.
Maybe Sir Andrew Aguecheek in Twelfth Night, but we’re getting in the weeds here.
Martin
Do you hear that, Mr. Boehner? That is the sound of inevitability. It is the sound of your political death. Goodbye, Mr. Boehner.
lamh34
@Martin,
Ok, hows about some of my favorite lines in all 3 of the Matrix movies wee uttered by Mr Smith!
I love the way he says “Misss-tter Anderson”
Ann B. Nonymous
To judge from your past comments, it seems entirely possible you have a stack of glossies of the massacre and a bottle of hand lotion that you’re using right now. You don’t have the moral credibility to deny it.
Frankly, how do we know you’re not plotting something similar right now? That Norwegian freak loved himself some Internet too.
As for the apology, what makes you think you deserve one? Would a Republican non-apology suit you? I don’t even feel like bothering with one as an insult.
dmsilev
@ BGinCHI :
OK, you win.
JGabriel
@John Puma:
Smarter Galtians who buy cheap while others panic or are forced to sell-off due to fund/pension rules regarding AAA rated debt.
.
JPL
Martin @ 83.. I agree with you about Boehner but who will replace him? Our msm will blame both sides although overseas markets will blame the “nutters”.
Our voters aren’t informed anymore and my fear is that Cantor or my rep, Price will seem reasonable.
Dennis SGMM
@elftx:
Of course the Republicans would never, ever, use the vulnerability of SS (That they fucking created in the first place) to demand the privatization of SS in the future. Whatever the outcome of the current crisis (That the GOp also created) every last bill, appointment, every last goddamn thing, will be an opening for the crazies to attempt to extract another pound of flesh.
Royston Vasey
Early Asian currency trading suggested a move away from the US dollar, with the biggest drop in the greenback coming against the Swiss franc.
In Asian trading, the dollar dropped to 0.8121 against the Swiss franc (CHF), down 0.7 percent.
S&P 500 futures fell at the open of electronic trading as investors grew increasingly worried at the lack of progress. The benchmark S&P SPc1 was down 1 percent, or 14 points, at 1,326.00.
The decline in futures points to a poor open for U.S. markets.
JGabriel
@lamh34:
And thus the Parents Music Resource Center was born.
Seriously. Darling Nikki is the song that compelled Tipper Gore to found the PMRC.
.
Spaghetti Lee
Our voters aren’t informed anymore and my fear is that Cantor or my rep, Price will seem reasonable.
Tom Price? That’s Newt Gingrich’s old seat, I think. Suburbs of Atlanta. And Cantor’s suburbs of Richmond, Boehner’s suburbs of Cincinnati and Dayton. And my hometown boy Roskam is suburbs of Chicago. Speaking as someone who was born and raised in one, has anything good ever come out of the suburbs?
scav
@Yutsano: The Duke? Annoying but for upper class twit of the year it’s got to be Sir Andrew . . only he’s dimmer than those that use him so not quite right either.
Oh, and not suggested for brains but more for where I hope the B will be tonight, how about Wolsey in Henry VIII, Act III, Scene 2 (Anthony Head here). Far too articulate but sweet sweet tears.
aisce
look at some of you goofballs worrying about the new zealand fucking stock markets. new zealand.
how are things in mongolia, i wonder? kuala lampur?
Svensker
We’ve lost a lot of money in the past few weeks as the dollar has ratcheted down as folks around the world realize how batshit the Teahadists are. I’d like to personally thank them for spending all that money on Iraq, running up the deficit and then threatening to default so that the money we salted away has lost 10% over the last year. (Not talking investments, talking cash.)
I’m hoping that the only thing we’ll suffer is some down swings on the dollar. But these fuckers are truly crazy.
Montysano
@dmsilev:
Just wanted to re-quote that, with emphasis. If true…… there really is no bottom the barrel.
Comrade Luke
@dmsilev:
So they pass a clean bill and claim that they’ve saved the country from economic collapse, which they then claim Obama was orchestrating.
Most people roll their eyes, but the Gregorys & Brooks of the world buy it hook, line and sinker.
Boehner gets the credit and keeps his job as speaker, and for the next year and a half we get to hear that Obama was plotting to collapse the economy in order to help his re-election chances.
Goodie.
Dennis SGMM
@aisce:
I’m hoping that was snark rather than bone-deep stupidity. The only thing holding up the markets is faith in the markets. If a stampede starts because the full faith and credit of the world’s formerly safest investment vehicle (US treasuries) goes south at the same time as the world’s reserve currency (The dollar) then you’ll wish that they had stock markets on Mars.
JGabriel
@Reality Check:
Between the conservative terrorist butchering children in Norway, and the conservative terrorists in the House GOP drooling over the opportunity to starve seniors and cut off their health care and crash the economy, tensions are riding kind of high. I don’t think you’ll be finding any eager apologies here today.
Was that not helpful in changing the tone or reducing the tensions? Ah, well. C’est la fucking vie.
.
Montysano
@Comrade Luke:
That’s more like it.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@BGinCHI: Boehner and Cantor exeunt pursued by a Bear Market. (Ahem) Otherwise, bravo.
+0 and trying to cope with very distressing medical news through excessive pedantifying.
Linda Featheringill
@aisce: #94
Because it’s all connected. We’re all connected.
Chad N Freude
@Ol’ Dirty DougJ: Start quoting him now.
According to AP:
scav
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): Sorry to hear of your (unspecified) news but at least you’ve got some high grade pedantry to fall back on. Hope it works.
Linda Featheringill
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
medical news.
Are you going to be all right?
Amir_Khalid
@aisce:
It’s my town, and its name is Kuala Lumpur. The opening KLSE and financial market reports should be in around 2200hrs EDT, and the noon reports a couple of hours later.
General Stuck
This is all Obama’s fault, getting rolled by Boehner and Cantor. So lets all hold hands and have a good progressive cry.
Hey, I read it on the internet.
JGabriel
AP via Chad N Freude:
He is. Obama is worried about giving you and your terrorist caucus another chance to crash the country’s economy, John Boehner.
.
gogol's wife
a hip hop artist, thanks for the exeunt! It was a great joke but needed to be made even better (and accurate). All of you answering Reality Check, thank you, thank you, thank you. I can’t believe what they’re doing to the country. It’s beyond even what I had imagined of these “people.”
Royston Vasey
@aisce #94
No-one is worried about the NZ markets (and I’m in nZ). Its the Asian markets (currencies vs USD) and futures.
Oh, and how Gold is faring: Gold futures added as much as 1 percent to a record $1,617.70 an ounce.
beltane
@Chad N Freude: Dear Lord, they’re openly bragging about their treason now. The Teabaggers can fly the flag all they want but they fly it in vain. If we ever prevail over this economic version of firing on Ft. Sumpter, I hope they are treated more harshly than they were back then. Never forget, never forgive.
Martin
The whole time watching Lord of the Rings I was waiting for Elrond to say ‘Misss-tter Bagginsss’.
Mnemosyne
@Ella in New Mexico:
They probably all think that they won’t lose a penny, but it’s mathematically impossible that every one of them is going to be able to pull it off. Inevitably, the majority of the bettors are going to lose their money.
That’s when the real wailing and gnashing of teeth begins.
Chad N Freude
@JGabriel: That quote shows that Boehner’s gall is not divided into three parts.
JGabriel
@BGinCHI:
Boehner is Supervacuo. That leaves Ambitioso for Cantor.
(Just going by the names. I haven’t read the play, so don’t know if Boehner & Cantor actually match the characters attached to those names.)
.
Royston Vasey
@105 – FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI!!
beltane
@Mnemosyne: I hope you’re right, Mnemosyne. Because monsters losing their money is the only way there will be knives out for these people. The U.S. liberated Europe from their far-right nutters; there is no country who will or can do it for us.
The Republic of Stupidity
If no one else has gone there yet, I’d suggest Duck and Cover myself…
JPL
Spaghetti Lee hmm not that I can think of.
JGabriel
Chad N Freude:
Heh. V. clever.
Now if only I could come up with some equally clever pun on two parts Celtic and one part Aquitanian…
Nope. Can’t do it. The best I can come up with is “Two farts Pelvic and one fart Aqua Velvet.”
Which kind of almost rhymes, but makes no damn sense at all.
.
BGinCHI
a hip hop artist from Idaho: well-played. Correction duly noted in my memoirs.
Hope you’re ok…..
Chad N Freude
@beltane: Speaking of treason, everyone seems to have forgotten Mitch McConnell’s statement
More important than the US economy, more important than the world economy, more important than the General Welfare.
aisce
suckers. not a single one of you, not a single one, would have given a flying fuck what the international markets were doing tonight if you hadn’t been told that you needed to care. by some of our top men, naturally. who are always so on the ball.
let me know if the market apocalypse happens tonight, ok? and no, a weakened dollar doesn’t count.
The Dangerman
@beltane:
Economic “wars” would require economic “ammunition”; I think have OPEC states wanting to be paid in Euros instead of dollars might wake some people up.
+ ?
BGinCHI
aisce, and how would you know what Jesus wanted you to do?
Or does he just tell you.
Moran.
JPL
aisce Some of us have actually been paying attention but thanks for the comment. Some of us will make money tonight and some will lose. Unfortunately if interest rates rise, a lot will suffer.
OzoneR
We only liberated Europe from their far-right nutters when they became a threat to us, other than that, it was “that sucks but not my problem, here’s a plane”
Unabogie
I also never cared or thought about the debt ceiling before recently, since up until now, no party ever threatened to hold it hostage and crash the economy on purpose. That this is happening now is forcing all of us to learn some new things.
You might try it.
Chad N Freude
@JGabriel:
Thanks. Hehnry V clever?
Royston Vasey
@121 – I think the “markets” will be just fine today/tonight. What I think we will see is the further steady decline of the US dollar on the Forex markets, and an increase in gold prices.
As for apocalypse, I’ll agree with you and say I doubt that’ll happen.
Violet
Nice headline from CBS News:
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@aisce: I’ve kind of known for a long time that the markets are tied together, just like I’ve known for a long time that increasing our oil production here would do almost nothing to the price of oil even if we kept it for ourselves. It didn’t take some expert to tell me that. Like it didn’t take the power grid shutting down in the North East for me to understand how power plants in Pennsylvania and Ohio affect the air quality in Maryland.
You, on the other hand, seem to have no clue how things are tied together. I bet riding with you in traffic is a nightmare.
Ash Can
@aisce: Instead of bitching about commenters here discussing something you’re not interested in, why don’t you go read up a little on what the world’s financial markets do, how they do it, and what it means when they do what they do? Reading up on the foreign exchange markets would be a plus.
beltane
@OzoneR: I guess defaulting on our debt constitutes a threat to other countries. I hope the Chinese partition us into Red states and Blue states complete with a wall and no hope of reunification.
NMP
Looks like both Reid and Pelosi are going to put forth proposals that include NO revenue increases and dollar-for–dollar spending cuts to debt limit increase. Where is the outrage from liberals?! Keep telling yourselves this shit has nothing to do with race. You might just convince yourselves.
travis
Fuck the galtians. They have more to lose. I’ll be no lower on the economic food chain than I already am. No one will laugh harder than me when the overlords find out the little poodle they used to scare grandma about med reform, turns out to be a pit bull that hates it’s master’s guts. Like I said, fuck em. Couldn’t happen to a worse bunch of galtians. Maybe we can dust off those old guillotines finally.
JGabriel
I wonder if Obama wants to force the House Republicans into taking a debt ceiling vote in the run-up to the 2012 election.
Think about it. Obama says the one thing he won’t accept is a debt ceiling raise that doesn’t carry us through to 2012.
So, of course, that’s what the House GOP demands.
Then, come election season, the House GOP is forced to take another vote to either raise the debt ceiling again, which will piss off their 27% base, or crash the economy, which will piss off EVERYONE else.
Edited to Add: Yes, the House GOP would look like winners now. But how smart will they look when they have to take that second vote?
.
JPL
If the markets don’t react in the next few days, the nutters will never raise the debt ceiling. There is probably disbelief that the nutters would tank the economy.
Ash Can
As for “apocalypse,” I tend to agree with Royston Vasey and others here who expect a more gradual reaction from the markets. The markets react precipitously to sudden events, and the debt ceiling imbroglio has been going on for some time. A fair amount of reaction to it is already built into the market.
Now, if August 2 — or some other point in time when extraordinary measures have to be taken in earnest — arrives with no increase of the debt ceiling forthcoming, and drastic things start happening such as the US Government skipping an interest payment, then we could expect to see the markets take a pretty good-sized dive. I think that, just as some uncertainty is already built into the markets, so is a substantial amount of confidence that something will finally get done, in the nick of time. If nothing in fact is done, then we’ll get a look at how far down things can go.
General Stuck
There is only one way to interpret what the republicans are now doing, putting the country on the edge of the cliff, with what appears now to be a serious willingness to push us all over that cliff.
The fact that Boehner cannot budge his caucus without an all or nothing capitulation from the dems and Obama, is not entirely unlike the first shots fired at Fr Sumter, or some of the similar brinkmanships and intransigence seen in Washington in the years leading up to those first shots fired so long ago.
There is no precedence for this in recent times, and the fact that Obama is black should not be lost on anyone, and that he is smarter than they are, and passed the hated ACA.
Maybe they will still back off that ledge in time, but it sure doesn’t look like it. They are trying to force Obama to give them the New Deal, or make him break existing law to save the world, to be used against him for political reasons, up to and including impeachment proceedings.
And as far as the scorched earth politicking the wingnuts are doing, it wouldn’t matter what dem president was in office. Do you think a more openly liberal would cause them to behave better? Obama being black is not likely behind this rebellion, but I think it does give the goopers a sense that it will help them pull it off. And that they can risk take a little more, than if Obama was a white man.
“We want our country back” is only a modern version of The Rebel Yell.
JPL
JGabriel Most votes on the debt ceiling are housekeeping votes. I’d love to see a poll because I’d be willing to bet that at least forty percent think this is the first time ever and it’s awful…
RalfW
@aisce “and no, a weakened dollar doesn’t count.”
Let me know how it works out for ya when oil is priced in yuán rather than dollars. Twerp.
Violet
@Ash Can:
Yeah, if we get to late on August 1st and nothing seems to be moving, then we’ll see something happen in the markets.
I think there will be some flight from the dollar this week because even if we finally get a deal, it has become increasingly obvious that the Republican leadership can’t control the teabaggers. That has to be scary to those who work in the financial world. So I’d expect some movement based on that revelation (okay, revelation to those who haven’t been paying attention).
Dennis SGMM
@aisce:
Not a single one of us? I’ve only been investing overseas for a decade.
You are, indeed, a no good, jizz licking Republican and I can say so with complete assurance because you’re possessed of that combination of ignorance and egotism that makes you believe that no one could possibly think of anything that you haven’t already thought of.
I can only conclude that you assumed your nick because you’re too high from huffing disk brake cleaner to spell “ass.”
JGabriel
Ash Can:
Maybe. It’s also possible that the markets did not price this into the market yet. They may have been waiting to see what happened on Friday, since that’s what the President repeatedly told everyone was the deadline for a deal.
If so, then a stronger market reaction is more likely on Monday.
I don’t think we can discount either possibility yet.
.
Ash Can
@JGabriel: This has crossed my mind too. How do the Republicans benefit from going through all this nonsense again right before an election? The polls are showing that the electorate at large isn’t buying their bullshit. Can it be that they’re so divorced from reality at this point that they honestly think they’re benefiting from this craziness, and that it will give them a boost going into the election? I’m sure that there are individual Republicans who think that way, but a plurality of them?
aisce
then why, dearie, are you so concerned with this particular night? why then, are all of you so suddenly and fanatically concerned with one night’s opening? why indeed.
just admit you schnooks actually thought the people on the tv knew the fuck they were talking about, when they were really selling woof tickets as part of a public negotiating stance. the markets aren’t tanking tonight. they aren’t tanking tomorrow morning either. they might be down, but not precipitously so. maybe later in the week, but not now.
the politicians will invent many more deadlines of last resort in the next few days. they will then proceed to blow through all of them. stop caring about what they say until the ink on the deal is fucking dry…
JPL
Ash Can – MSM is buying there bull shit. Huffington’s headline is Plenty of Blame and No deal yet. I can only imagine what Drudge says. MSNBC>> Boehner Prepared to Move Alone.
Read MSNBC’s headline and say what a guy.
Violet
@Ash Can:
Right before the election they’ll push a debt ceiling raise through on a housekeeping vote. They’ll coopt Fox News and talk radio to talk about how it’s different this time, and they won’t belabor the point. What are the Dems going to do? Say the Republicans are hypocrites? That’s hardly a big surprise for a politician. Voters won’t care. Republican voters won’t care because they’ll be told not to care this time.
JPL
I wish there were a poll about how ofter the debt ceiling is raised. Since it is normally a house keeping issue what do you think the average voter would think.
EDIT.. most voters are like aisce…uninformed.
JGabriel
@Ash Can:
Think of it this way: How many liberals, moderates, or independents do you think are calling the offices of GOP House Reps?
I’m sure they mostly hear from their own teahadi base, and we already know that their response is insane encouragement.
.
General Stuck
After getting their asses handed to them in 2006 and 08, I think they are fixated on the only source of energy available to them. That of the group calling themselves the tea party.
Though they basically deny the econ collapse was the fault of their failed economic philosophy, that caused TARP and the big rescue of big finance, they didn’t hesitate to use that against Obama for intervening and cleaning up their mess.
So they are running on what amounts to free associative fumes of their ideology, and glomming onto the huge deficits they mostly caused, to lead them down the rabbit hole to conservative Wonderland. Led the entire way by the seditious light given off by the tea tards. But they are leading us all to the gates of economic hell, and cannot help themselves but to follow that light.
They care nothing about the country on the whole, or its citizens. It is pure self interest gone wild and crazy.
Davis X. Machina
@Ash Can:
They’ve internalized and institutionalized 50% + 1 politics. Reduce overall turnout — everything from negative campaigning to outright voter suppression. Then get your faction to turn out as close to 100% as you can — ballot measures help here. And convince the front-runners among the loosely attached voters who do show up to hop on the inevitable bandwagon.
The marginal utility of every extra voter above 50% + 1 is less than the cost it takes to bring him or her in. A bill passed by a legislature whose members were elected in a landslide is just as binding as one elected in a series of squeakers.
scav
have to admit, it’s pretty low-rent amusement to laugh at the former the market is scared of uncertainty don’t frighten the market crowd drag this out to the very edge of doom and mock those paying attention to markets. Well, I’m easily amused and got the whiplash over and done with when watching Deficits Don’t Matter mantra switch to DEFICITS OMFG APOCALYPTIC NIGHTMARE OF DOOM 24/7. And an OT observation that I had forgotten how dark and deeply disturbing Chris Eccleston can go. He, Marc Warren and Izzard really fit the mood.
Dennis SGMM
Divorced from reality? Divorced? The Republicans have fucked Reality in the ass, wiped their dicks on the drapes and are now demanding cab fare home.
Joel
If they’re dumping treasuries (as-is) they need to find buyers. And chances are, funds allotted to presumably safe T notes cannot sustain the losses that would be incurred by a panic sell at this point.
aisce
@ jpl
you keep acting like i’m telling you that the markets will be fine and not raising the debt ceiling is no big deal. i’m telling you that when and how the markets move is completely different than how politicians in washington tell you they will.
the politicians are going to create false deadlines. then they will blow those deadlines. then they will create new false deadlines. until august 2. but here, tonight, july 24, chill the fuck out. there is nothing to talk about. there will be no doom tonight, there will be no doom tomorrow morning, nor would there ever have been. stop dancing like organ grinder monkeys.
Linda Featheringill
@Joel: #154
T bills
What would happen if a holder of a significant amount of these bills tried to sell a bunch of them and the only buyers demanded a large discount [is that the word?]?
Would the holder then present them to the US for redemption? Or be stuck with T bills of diminished worth?
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Dennis SGMM:
Fix’t.
I don’t think there will be much market reaction yet, but I do think that there will be some negative movement related to the failed ‘negotiations’.
Ash Can
@aisce: I don’t even understand what you’re complaining about.
Because the top DC pols were talking about this weekend being something of a deadline for debt ceiling resolution, this is something of a bellwether 24-hour period for the world’s financial markets. Whether they react at all, and to what extent if they do, will indicate who in this mess investors around the world are listening to, who they believe, and how they think everything will play out. Some of those investors are large enough to affect the policies of our government and economic conditions in this country. I’ve already made my best guess regarding what might happen.
This really isn’t that difficult.
pattonbt
My, albeit worthless, two cents. You won’t see much market reaction early this week, but as the week drags on….well, then it becomes much less clear. Sure there will be some minor ups and downs early this week, but nothing “drastic”. That doesn’t make it better, we shouldn’t even be experiencing these minor hiccups.
So prognosticating now…..one of two things. One, Republicans play chicken for a couple more days. Markets get slightly to moderately worse. Boner then puts a clean bill up for vote because “he has no choice!!! the dems want to destroy the country and it’s up to him to save it”. Dems have no choice but to vote for it, all the Reps vote against, same in Senate, POTUS approves. Media blames Dems for any market impacts and Dems are hounded on bad economy through 2012. Or two, pretty much the same as one except Obama is forced to go 14th amendment. Same outcomes though. Reps win, Dems lose.
I mean I watched 30 seconds while I flipped channels this morning on CNN with whatever the anchors name was with Diane Feinstein. Feinstein was great and of course the anchor was “both sides do it” as the last word. Nice.
The story is this and only this. The debt ceiling has been raised cleanly throughout history. It has never been controversial, ever. Yet now, the Reps hold it hostage for everything only their most fanatical backers ever wanted and things that no one left of those fanatics wants any of. They hold the legislative cards and could solve this, like every other fucking congress in history, in one second.
But the media will not let that be the story. The media wants this. Desperately. Nothing is more exciting to them.
I’m a cynic though, and terrible at prognosticating, so lets hope I am wrong as usual.
And, I work in the gold industry, so times are good (it sucks some time when your industry does best when others are in the shitter).
JPL
aisce.. I understand but if there is no doom tonight do you really think that the “nutters” will react tomorrow. Because of the Senate setup where they have 120 hours of debate, that pushes the limit. Just my opinion but it is on a tight schedule.
Chris T.
This is not going to go the way I have seen anyone else predict.
There are a number of reasons for that, all which boil down to: every individual will (in general) try to do that which is in the individual’s interest as perceived by that particular individual, which results in a massive clusterf**k. :-)
Suppose you are a big holder of Treasuries (such as social security, or China, or Japan; see elftx‘s list). You can continue to hold, or sell. You may be legally obligated to sell (in the case of downgrades), in some cases, but if so there are loopholes in that obligation. To whom will you sell?
Suppose you are the administration. What do you do, with not enough revenue coming in to pay all the bills? You structure it like a bankruptcy: you determine each creditor’s place in line, and pay those at the front first. Those are (wait for it) … the bondholders. So the existing bonds are actually still good.
Treasuries are and remain the safest thing in a world that is now much more uncertain than before. This means demand for Treasuries goes up, not down. The price goes up, and the effective yield goes down. The supply of new Treasuries dries up entirely (because we cannot issue any more). This means that the price goes up. The effective yield goes down even more.
Liquidity traps are amazing things.
MomSense
@Alex S
At his town hall meeting on Friday, President Obama was asked about the 14th amendment and he responded that his lawyers have advised him that it is not an option.
Canuckistani Tom
8 pm EDT, 9 am in Japan
And here….we…..go
Chris T.
(I’ve made this a separate comment because the logic in it depends on the first one.)
Now, there will be some panic sellers, so the price is going to be quite volatile. However, really large holders (like Social Security) hold so much Treasury debt that they cannot possibly sell it all. So they will, of necessity, mostly sit tight.
Meanwhile, what happens inside the US economy, with big chunks of tax revenue going to nothing-but-interest-payments? Here’s where I’m not sure what happens. Who is considered ‘next in line’ in the creditor list? Social security and medicare? Defense (Pentagon and/or contractors)? Those — the insurance payouts and the armed forces — comprise the bulk of the remainder. They probably get half pay or less. Federally funded offices may also have to get half pay or less, or shut down entirely. The only other alternative is to continue to issue Treasuries anyway, and let the courts argue about it … which is probably what will happen in a week or two (but I don’t know).
CaseyL
Just saw on msnbc.com that Obama and the Democratic leadership have come up with a plan to cut spending by $2.5T and no revenue increase for 10 years.
That’s the Democratic plan, mind you.
I have no idea how it is distinguished from the GOP plan.
Can anyone explain this to me?
JPL
Technically the Treasury can pay their debts and a percentage of everything else. Unfortunately you can’t pay ninety percent of everything else. Computers are set up as an all or nothing.
Do we pay social security but kick grandma out of the nursing home who is on medicaid? How about those on VA or medicare?
Let’s get rid of the FBI or Homeland Security. No problem here with home grown terrorists bombing us because the home grown terrorists are in office.
Ash Can
@Dennis SGMM:
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
LOL!
Linda Featheringill
Nikkei opens down a half of a percent. We’ll see where it goes from here.
General Stuck
Yes, I saw that. I don’t know how he could have answered it any different, that would have not weakened leverage over the wingers. But the reality of a default, and the fact that Obama has shown a willingness to defy even the OLC, makes me think he would use what means he could to not cause an economic calamity on his watch. He might dredge up some other reason for raising the debt limit himself, given the easy argument the situation is a dire national security threat.
eemom
@ MomSense
interesting issue. Steve Benen had a piece the other day dissecting and electron-microscoping what the Prez said and concluding that he didn’t totally rule out the 14th Amendment option.
There is this, however: Laurence Tribe, who is nobody’s idea of a republitard enabler, has said he thinks the argument that the debt ceiling law is unconstitutional is bullshit. (Of course he says it much more legally than that.)
There’s a series of posts betweeen him and some other law professor arguing the point that I am too lazy to search for at the moment.
CaseyL
I also read somewhere (can’t remember where) that, if worse comes to worst, we can buy some more time by liquidating the Social Security Trust Fund to pay our bills. Nothing was said about restoring the Trust Fund afterwards.
How many times has the Trust Fund been raided to pay for the privileged to keep their privileges? Two, three times now?
Our leaders love us, all right. Like a glutton loves his lunch.
Ash Can
@CaseyL: Actually, according to MSNBC, that’s the Senate Democratic plan. Who knows whether Obama would agree to it since it doesn’t increase tax revenue.
Joel
Just for the record; a plan where the Bush tax cuts expire might officially be considered a “no revenue” plan. And that’s probably what the Democrats will advertise for political purposes.
danimal
@CaseyL: I haven’t seen it, but I’d bet that a BIG part of the Democratic proposal’s $2.5T reduction is accomplished by reducing the baseline for Iraq/Afghanistan. The 10-year budget projections for those missions are locked at current rates, but in the real world, the future costs are likely to be much lower than current expenditures.
FlipYrWhig
Presumably it’s heavily weighted towards the long term and puts more emphasis on “bend the cost curve” kinds of fixes rather than yanking the chain on beneficiaries. But I have no idea. “No revenue increase for 10 years” sounds pretty strong; not even in any other bill? (For instance, the much-discussed idea of overhauling the tax code to reduce money going out in deductions and credits to already well-off people.) They can’t possibly promise that, can they?
FlipYrWhig
Or maybe it was “a plan to cut spending by $2.5T over 10 years” without additional provisions to increase revenue in this particular plan. That would still allow for revenue increases through other means, such as “tax reform.”
Yutsano
@Ash Can: Could we get a link please or something? If we’re gonna wet our pants we might as well know what’s going on.
(I know you didn’t bring it up, but you seem to have read it.)
CaseyL
I don’t know. Obama said he would absolutely not be moved in his insistence on increased revenue. He has earned a reputation for giving away half the store before negotiations have even begun, but I don’t recall that he ever said, unequivocably, that a specific demand was non-negotiable. I guess we’ll see if he means it when he says it.
Martin
What baseline? If it’s the ‘plausible baseline’ that’d mean the Bush tax cuts are assumed to expire. That’s the revenue increase. $2.5T isn’t so hard to achieve, though. $1.1T or thereabouts is simply getting out of Iraq/Afghan. Obama has been pushing for $100M in defense cuts, which would be another $1T. Farm subsidies is $400B. Medicare drug price negotiation and similar fixes is $400B.
Honestly, there’s a lot of cutting that the left should be okay with. The question, as always, is ‘what’s being cut’.
Stillwater
@FlipYrWhig: They can’t possibly promise that, can they?
Well, it worked out really well in Colorado Springs, so, yeah!
Yutsano
@Martin: I found the link and it’s a whole lotta mush with zero details. Which just means MSNBC felt like they had to put up SOMETHING.
Dexter
Nikkei is inching down after opening half a percentage point down. Dow and S&P futures are close to 1% down so looks like Wall Street is going to be in the red tomorrow. So, this is going to be a fun week.
Linda Featheringill
I think this is what ash can was talking about:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43864749/ns/politics-capitol_hill/
Martin
That’s really not possible.
Groucho48
@eemom
“If Shakespeare has a character who’s dumber than shit who serves as a useful idiot for people even dumber than he is, that’s him. I just can’t think of one at the moment.”
I’d go with Trinculo and Stephano, from The Tempest. Both drunks, who wander around lost and bewildered until they chance on Caliban. Stephano would be Cantor. Trinculo, whom Caliban fell in love with, would be Bachmann. Caliban, of course, represents the Tea Party. “As I told thee before, I am subject to a tyrant, a
black masorcerer that by his cunning hath cheated me ofmy countisland.”gwangung
Details matter, right? Otherwise, it’s just propaganda.
Ash Can
@Yutsano: Sorry, got busy with other things here. Linda Featheringill did in fact supply the link.
@Linda Featheringill: That’s the one. Thanks.
Stillwater
@Martin: See, I think Martin’s right here: there are lots of ways to ensure that the important programs get funding even if there are no revenue increases.
I understand why some Democrats, and most liberals, would oppose this, but really, there are lots of way to lower spending that even democrats ought to in favor of.
One thing a ‘no new revenue’ provision would create is an incentive to take the pie as it exists and cut it up better. Eg, less defense spending.
And of course, from my pov, taxes on the wealthy ought to return to (at least) pre-Bush levels. No reason those who benefit the most from government services and protections shouldn’t pay progressively for that privilege.
Just saying that it may not be as bad as it sounds.
Martin
Of course. But as soon as the word ‘cuts’ comes out, half the community tends to immediately follow up with ‘Obama sold us out’.
I don’t think what I outlined above can be passed by the GOP, but Dems putting an all-cuts budget on the table may put the squeeze on the GOP. What are they going to say “Oh, but we want the mandate repealed!” Sometimes the only thing worse than demanding something is getting it. So yeah, details matter.
And you don’t even need to find $2.5T in cuts. You probably only need about $2T, as the other $500M will come from debt service not needing to be paid, since this is all from baselines. Federal budget writing is barely distinguishable from Calvinball.
JGabriel
@Martin:
I think it means “No revenue increase for 10 years in this bill,” not “No revenue increase for 10 years in any future bill.”
Maybe that’s not possible either, but it sounds more plausible.
.
WaterGirl
QUESTION
IF, as it seems, the Republicans are willing to let us default on our debt…
Would you rather:
See President Obama “cave” on things he said were requirements, such as needing some revenue or needing the debt ceiling raised through 2012, but preventing the default?
OR
Make sure the democrats don’t blink – in other words, President Obama sticks to his guns and lets the default happen on his watch, if necessary?
John O
Give me the default if there are no new taxes on the wealthy.
I’m sick and tired of this rigged game.
OzoneR
The problem is, the country defaults, both sides get the blame and the GOP wins by, no pun intended, default
Tonal Crow
@Ella in New Mexico:
Huh? If I expected interest rates on treasuries to “skyrocket”, I’d be selling the hell out of them, then waiting to buy them back after rates rise. That way I’d avoid losing principal as yields rose, plus I’d make more interest when I finally repurchased the bonds.
Linda Featheringill
Hong Kong Stock Exchange is about 3/4 of 1% down, 30 minutes into their trading day.
What would be the next exchange of significance, moving west?
John O
Maybe. At some point, you have to take a stand on principle, even in politics, and let the chips fall where they may while you make your case as best you can. If you can’t win the blame game, you deserve what you get in this case. If the Dems are just going to accept everything the GOP points a gun at, the Dems might just as well be better served in the long run under another reign of economic terror under GOP control.
It’s a time of great change.
Comrade Luke
This is incredibly frustrating. We’re debating how much should be cut, where things should be cut, blah blah blah because House Republicans won’t vote on raising the debt ceiling.
Fuck that. Clean vote and be done with it.
I’m hoping Martin’s right, and that’s what happens.
OzoneR
We tried that in April, didn’t work.
OzoneR
I guess it depends on what you consider principle.
Is letting the country default over cuts really our principle? Some disagree, especially since default means cuts anyway. Defaulting will hurt the very people we’re trying to protect and they’re not going to cheer us on for protecting Social Security if they’re not getting checks anyway.
Except they didn’t. Dems demanded a clean vote, they didn’t get it, they offered a series of deals, but insisted on revenue, they didn’t get it. At what point do we go “Well, we fought, now we lost?”
scav
@WaterGirl: Don’t know. Depends entirely on what’s on offer, what they’re giving up, doesn’t it? Default v. ceding control of the government is a tricky one. Default v. a plan that won’t fucking actually improve anything except serving as ideological soundbites is a tricky one. Also depends on what sort of fear of GSD punching has been going on behind closed doors. Not inclined personally to assuming a supine position myself but I’m not entirely a nice person or even close to being so.
And All Hail Groucho48 for his Caliban / Teaparty suggestion.
WaterGirl
scav
I read an article earlier (can’t recall where, no link) that said in June the word from the republicans was they all thought President Obama would cave, and someone came to Obama and said something like “if you’re gonna cave, tell us now” and Obama replied that he’s the president of the united states and his word is good.
So I just can’t see how he could go on TV on Friday night and say “this is my bottom line, we have to have the debt limit raised thru 2012 and there have to be revenues”, only to turn around a few days later and give up one of his bottom-line things. if Obama looks weak, everything is lost.
But if we default, everything is lost, too. I am glad I am not President Obama right now. I really thought they would go with the 14th amendment, but I see that he ruled that out on Friday. Maybe they can do the mint-some-platinum-brick thing and sort of create the money to spend? I didn’t give that much credence when it was proposed earlier this week, but maybe that’s how he doesn’t cave and doesn’t use the 14th amendment.
Edit: I do think Obama has balls of steal, but he surely has never been tested in this way before, with so much riding on this. I just have to hope he has a plan.
OzoneR
He made an argument and lost it. People do it all the time.
joel hanes, sp4
Martin@111
The whole time watching Lord of the Rings I was waiting for Elrond to say ‘Misss-tter Bagginsss’.
One of the worst casting decisions ever, anywhere.
scav
At some point too, things just are broken and can’t be fixed. This ain’t the movies. plans fail. there may be no tidy little sunsets to ride into. no dieux ex machina. we probably won’t get the closing credits flashing past our eyes either, just increasing amount of mess and static and then the film melts (I actually saw that happen once, it was actually kinda brilliant. Il Postino, not that it matters.)
lol
They *did* get a “clean bill” up for a vote. All the Republicans voted against it because they didn’t want to raise the ceiling. And nearly all the Dems voted against it because 1. why take the heat for something that ain’t passing and 2. it included language to the effect of “whereas the President is a shiftless spendy negro, we have to raise the debt limit”.
Chad N Freude
@WaterGirl:
Your Freudian slip is showing.
4jkb4ia
Today’s NYT actual quotation:
“Richard Sylla, a finance professor at the Stern School of Business of New York University who has written about panics, pointed to 1792, when one Treasury trader ran into problems and sent the market into a spiral in which it lost 25 percent of its value.
About 100 years later, Congress had to call an emergency session because the Treasury was running out of gold reserves as foreign investors redeemed dollars for gold, Mr. Sylla said.
“Today we talk about what happens if the Chinese sell all the U.S. securities; in 1893, foreign investors were doing just that,” Mr. Sylla said.
Mr. Sylla’s initial assessment of the current situation was, “They’re playing with fire in Washington, D.C., right now.” “
lol
Reid’s offer appears to be based on Pelosi’s plan. And Pelosi’s plan ($2.5 trillion) was $1 trillion in discretionary cuts over ten years, $1 trillion from winding down the wars (aka cuts already going to happen) and $.5 trillion from debt service.
So, in actuality, $1 trillion in cuts over ten years. And it remains to see what budget magic is being done there.
I remember people losing their shit over the budget deal number since it appeared at first glance that the Dems had given Boehner the number in cuts he asked for. But once people actually looked at the “cuts”, it became clear Boehner got rolled.
4jkb4ia
Possibly Boehner was interested in hyping the Asian markets because he wanted to look responsible while making threats.
WaterGirl
@ Chad N Freude
Ahem… balls of steel. But you made me laugh! Which is pretty good on this depressing day…
Yutsano
@lol: The AOS can’t accept it. If he takes that to his caucus, not only will it be voted down but he may have his speakership called into question. Could you imagine the Great Oompa Loompa giving a plan written by Pelosi? It’d be like accepting one from Pol Pot.
Martin
Gee, maybe I’m not so bad at this after all.
4jkb4ia
@WaterGirl : Cave. I agree that everything is lost either way, but a default is too scary. “If I was praying for the Messiah to come, was I praying for this?” scary.
WaterGirl
@ 4jkb4ia
Until about 5pm today, I would have answered that Obama needs to hold his ground and not cave. Now, I really think the Republicans are willing to set everything on fire, and now I don’t know how I would answer my question.
It seems like there might be some comfort, at least, in being certain which way you think is the right way to go. I am still struggling with “both options are terrible”, unable to make a decision.
scav
Well, here’s another thought to throw into the mix. Is there more to America than it’s credit rating?
ETA: and no, it’s not entirely rhetorical (although pushing hard when viewed in certain lights).
OzoneR
Sure, if you want to live in a country with higher unemployment and higher poverty than even what we had now.
Martin
In order for a hostage scenario to work, they have to believe you’re willing to shoot the hostage.
Triassic Sands
I’m pretty sure its formal name is Squat, Plop, and Flush, but I could be wrong.
Rome Again
@eemom:
Tybalt?
Rome Again
@WaterGirl:
A president with the Fourteenth Amendment in his pocket should cave? WHAT?
WaterGirl
@ Rome Again
On Friday, President Obama said his lawyers had recommended against the 14th. Until I read that, I felt strongly that Obama should hold his ground. Last night, I wasn’t sure what to think.
Right now, this morning, I’m thinking the house republicans should be treated like one would treat an alcoholic – quit enabling their destructive behavior by saving them from the negative consequences of their actions. Let them experience the consequences of their actions. The thing is, it will be everyone who experiences the consequences, which is what makes this such a tricky situation.
It seems clear to me this morning that the republicans are certain that Obama will cave, so the Rs think they will get everything they want. God help us all.