It doesn’t look good so far, but we’ll see.
Update. Barring strange recount numbers, it looks very good for King in Senate District 18, the big question will be Pasch versus Darling in Senate District 8. Right now, Democrats could win as few as six seats, but I’d give even odds they take three.
Update. King takes District 18. And now it’s all down to Senate District 8, which is too close to call.
nitpicker
Dude, the small towns–more likely to be Republican–are always the first to get their votes counted. Chill the fuck out.
Jenny
This is a better link:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/WI_State_Senate_0809.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
We still have a long way to go, but one thing I hope people don’t do is hang everything on this election. It’s one, and we’re just getting started battling the Republican machine. It’s going to take years before we’re doing it consistently, as long as we keep trying. Whether we clean house today or lost all, it’s not all about this election.
SiubhanDuinne
This thread goes to 350 before it’s all over.
jetan
You have a definite gift for understatement.
Spaghetti Lee
Cowles and Harsdorf on the GOP side are running away with it (although that’s kind of expected-those are the most conservative districts involved with the recalls), so it looks like the Dems will have to take 3 out of the last 4. A lot of precincts aren’t in yet, and TPM reports that the ones that are are Republican precincts.
Concerned Citizen
I think people got their hopes up a little too high. WI is a pretty conservative state, and those are incumbents.
I think I saw a sign that said “Birthplace of the Republican Party” in one of those towns. Is that right?
Jenny
If the recall is successful, then it will be a great victory for the netroots.
If the recall isn’t successful, then it’s Obama’s fault.
Spaghetti Lee
@Concerned Citizen:
These districts are pretty conservative, obviously, because they’re the ones where there’s GOP reps available to recall, ones who won in 2008, no less. But the state as a whole, I wouldn’t say that. It may be the birthplace of the Republican party, but it’s also the birthplace of Bob LaFollette, Gaylord Nelson, and Russ Feingold.
Elizabelle
OT, but I’m getting an ad
Is Sarah Palin doing a good job? Yes, or no?
(A job doing — what?)
WTF?
Still better than Kortney and her vegetable, though.
Spaghetti Lee
@Jenny:
Oh, can we please just fucking hold off on the circular firing squad until all the votes are counted? Is that too much to ask? Jesus Christ.
Matthew Reid Krell
@SiubhanDuinne: I will take the under.
FormerSwingVoter
Watching this stuff in real time will kill you. Individual precincts can swing wildly one way or the other. Someone who’s way behind right now will win, and someone who’s very close will get slaughtered, by the time all is said and done.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@Spaghetti Lee: And ban that fucking moron RC please.
OzoneR
The MSNBC spin preparing for a big loss is actually kinda pathetic
“These are Republican districts” blah blah blah
“turnout matters”
Well we have high turnout, so what’s the excuse?
Omnes Omnibus
@Spaghetti Lee: Remember, also that the Republican Party was a pretty liberal group at the time it was formed. Abe Lincoln and the Civil War era Radical Republicans anyone?
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@FormerSwingVoter: You are right and Uggla already got his hit for 30 straight so beddy bye.
WaterGirl
they are already calling a winner in one of the districts?
Reality Check
Lovin’ these Wisconsin returns!
Miller time, baby!
FormerSwingVoter
@WaterGirl: Yes, but if its any consolation, that one is looking like it was the most conservative district by far. We were never likely to sweep tonight, but 3/6 will be a win (would just need to defend the last two Dem seats next week).
Spaghetti Lee
Fond Du Lac County doesn’t have any returns in yet at all. Does that bode well or ill for the Dems?
Southern Beale
Too early to call it. Darling is getting creamed compared to the last time I looked.
Looks like they got 2 seats for sure, holding out hope for that 3rd one.
Comrade Mary
So you despise yourself, too? Cool.
Spaghetti Lee
@Comrade Mary:
Don’t. Feed. The. Troll.
Jenny
If they recall 2 of the 6 incumbents, that would be a success.
Turning out incumbents in tailor made gerrymandered districts isn’t easy.
After all, if you’re able to flip just 2 incumbents in 30 different states, the total would be considered a landslide, wave election.
Anoniminous
A special election, in gerrymandered Republican districts, against a Republican incumbent?
The most likely outcome is the GOP will hold the seats.
Linnaeus
As I’ve said on another thread, any Democratic gain is a positive. I’ll take one more seat in the D column than one less.
Mousebumples
@Spaghetti Lee: I hate to be repetitive around here, but it depends on turn out. Fond du Lac is (relatively) metro within that county. However FdL county also has a decent amount of rural area, which would trend red.
IIRC, the judicial election went for the incumbent (red) by a few percentage points. I’d guess they’d probably favor the incumbent if that holds true, but – again – I have no idea what turn out is like and/or who is more likely to vote in that particular county.
*EDIT:* April judicial election results by county are here: http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119497684.html FdL county went to Prosser by 5000 votes (15K to 10K), but I’m not sure how the county is divided between the two relevant precincts in the recall election.
aisce
@ watergirl
small districts, low turnout (in absolute numbers). what’s the problem? why wouldn’t you expect a quick count and turnaround?
OzoneR
@Jenny:
maybe, but if Republicans win 4 of 6 districts Obama won in high turnout elections, that says something too, says Obama’s coalition isn’t a progressive one.
Reality Check
Another REPUBLICAN victory….thats 2/6….two down, two to go!
WaterGirl
@aisce: It looked like there were only 80% reporting, and I wouldn’t think they could predict based on that for a small election like this.
lol
@Reality Check:
Dems are now ahead in three districts.
@aisce:
Low turnout doesn’t mean a lower number of precincts.
OzoneR
@aisce:
low turnout?
Spaghetti Lee
@Mousebumples:
It’s split between Districts 18 and 14. 18 has more precincts, so I would assume that’s the bulk of the city itself, and the 14 territory is the ‘burbs and rural areas, but I’m not sure. Either way, both districts are still winnable, and one of them has a big urban area yet to report.
Spaghetti Lee
@OzoneR:
…What?
Southern Beale
The 2 safest GOP seats have been called for the Republicans but it’s looking like the Dems are going to pull it out in Dist. 18, Dist. 32 and Dist. 8 .. but I don’t know anything about the outstanding precincts.
OzoneR
@Spaghetti Lee: There are voters who voted for Obama, then voted not to throw out their Walker-supporting State Senator.
What does that say?
Elie
@Anoniminous:
If that is the case, the Democrats should not have chosen a recall strategy. It could only, if what you say is true, result in defeat and demoralization. Lets hope that you are not correct in your assessment and that hopefully, the local Democrats are smart enough to plot an effective and winable strategy…
Spaghetti Lee
@OzoneR:
What it says to me is that local elections can have different issues in play than national ones. I’m not sure what it says to you.
aisce
@ lol and ozoner
what does “absolute numbers” mean, geniuses? i’ll give you a hint, it’s the opposite of a relative measure.
we’re not asking these people to count through 3.5 million votes here. it’s like one-seventh of that. it’s doable in a pretty short time frame.
Marc
Maybe local races have local factors? The two Republicans who won have represented their districts for a long time.
Looks as if 3 is the ceiling; we’ll see.
WaterGirl
@Southern Beale: My thought is that there is too low a % of votes counted in those precincts to be able to make any assumption at all about the outcome. But I do like seeing the numbers in our favor at this point!
Spaghetti Lee
@aisce:
Vote counting is one of those things I’d rather have done right than done quickly.
lol
@aisce:
Those votes, however few of them, aren’t in one place though. They’re all over the place in the hands of people of varying competency and need to be brought in to a central location. Each precinct has to be tallied separately. And the procedure varies by county.
Basically, what I’m trying to say is that the amount of time to tally isn’t directly proportional to the number of votes cast.
Spaghetti Lee
@Matthew Reid Krell:
Wise choice, apparently.
OzoneR
@Spaghetti Lee:
So voters support a right wing policies locally and left wing policies nationally? So much for standing for things.
Concerned Citizen
@lol: Good point. They need to hurry up as I am getting tired.
Larkspur
I love Real Czech pie.
Omnes Omnibus
Christ, has everyone gone asshole, Chicken Little, or both on this blog?
FWIW some of these ballots are being counted by hand after being gathered for little township town halls all over the countryside.
ploeg
@Concerned Citizen: Ripon, WI is the birthplace of the Republican Party. But then again, these were the people who came to power and passed the Morrill Land-Grant Colleges Act, the Homestead Act, and Amendments 13 through 15.
FormerSwingVoter
@Omnes Omnibus:
You’re just noticing this now?
Jenny
If the trends in Winnebago county in District 18 hold, then they will have recalled 3 incumbent republicans and taken control of the state Senate.
Spaghetti Lee
The ones left to watch are Districts 8 and 18, it looks like. Dems are ahead in 8, and behind in 18, but it looks like the precincts left to count in both favor who’s currently behind (Darling in 8, King in 18).
MikeJ
We’re up 55-45 in the 32nd, 52-48 in the 18th, and 56-44 in the 8th.
Looks like Wisconsin is going to get a new Senate and our troll will have to eat crow.
Reality Check
@MikeJ:
Afraid not. Afraid it’s going to be just like 2000 and 2004 for you–get your hopes up high, then have your wings clipped just as you think you’re about to fly. Can’t wait for the whining from you losers.
BlueDWarrior
@Spaghetti Lee: It’s more of a push in Darling (R-08)’s case, but the non-reporting precints favor King’s prospects
of course that is always assuming trends hold …
Lev
I don’t know about you all, but I’m limiting myself to refreshing the county data every five minutes. Too much stress to do it more often.
Southern Beale
@WaterGirl:
Good point.
FormerSwingVoter
@MikeJ: We’d still need to defend both Democratic districts next week, so let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.
Southern Beale
Jon Stewart is funny tonight!
Anoniminous
@Elie:
Since 1913 eight state legislators have survived, thirteen have been recalled. (Two of those were the result of a tax revolt in the state of Michigan.) So there is grounds for hope. The overall recall numbers, however, are not good … although it would take me some time to dig ’em up.
Basically, Americans are politically inert in the best of times (Presidential elections) otherwise they don’t vote in off-year elections (less than 42% turn-out in 2010) and typically vote even less in special elections: the Prosser/What’shername election got a 40% turn-out, IIRC, and that was HUGE for a special.
ETA: I will gladly eat my words with a good dose of “You MORON!” sauce, if things work out that way.
jwb
@Reality Check: We’ll see, but I’m looking at the county numbers and I’m seeing what MikeJ is seeing. 18 looks like it might end close enough to end in a recount, but both 8 and 32 look like they are going to break Dem.
Ed in NJ
@OzoneR:
I don’t think you have any idea what you are talking about. These are GOP state senators elected in 2008 in districts that overwhelmingly supported Obama. To say that flipping a couple of seats now is not a progressive victory is just sheer stupidity, especially in light of the challenges of seating incumbents, recalls of state legislators in general (only a couple in the history of the U.S.), and the massive amounts of money outside groups have poured into these elections for the GOP.
MGB
AP is calling District 32 for the Dem.
lol chikinburd
My prediction for tonight was +2, guessing that King would win only by a little over half a percent, that the falangists would all come home for Darling (particularly after the State Fair ugliness had had a weekend to stew as a point of conversation), and that the torrent of negative advertising hammering genuine flaws would bury Clark. Right now that’s holding up, except for King winning — she’s a few points short yet of where she needs to be.
For the last couple weeks there was all this chatter about how Clark’s ground team was so far ahead of Olsen’s, who’d never even had an opponent…Didn’t matter, did it? The DPW’s decision to let Fred Clark be their standard-bearer in that race will probably go down as what cost them the State Senate. A relative unknown, with none of Clark’s baggage, could have pulled a Ron Johnson there.
There may have been a little optimism about the Darling race, and there may yet be, but that’s the one likeliest for shenanigans. King and Pasch each have slim chances, but no way they both win.
ETA: I so hope I’m wrong about this. Bear in mind also that at this time last year, I predicted a Colts-Cowboys Super Bowl XLV, and had Chelsea winning the Premier League.
BlueDWarrior
The trends out of Winnebago are holding as of this posting
If they continue to hold, we’re looking a prospective St. Senate flip to the Democrats with Hopper losing I believe the rematch from a year ago… either way it will probably end in a recount, I don’t think it’s going to break big one way or the other from here on out
fingers remain crossed.
Concerned Citizen
@MGB: Sweet! That was the most vulnerable, correct?
hilts
About fucking time, the Democrats finally win 1 of the 6 seats
Linnaeus
That’s one for the “D-side”.
aisce
oh election night, how i love you.
it’s always such a delight to hear from people who don’t live in these fucking states and couldn’t find winnebago county on a map telling me what’s gonna happen. we are truly blessed to have such experts in our midst…
karen marie
How come, on TPM, three of the races have been called?
Even if Dems only get two of the six, it will still be a sweet victory getting that Darling bitch out.
nitpicker
Kapanke gone. Bye bye, asshole.
Turgidson
@jwb:
On the bright side, the outstanding votes for Dist. 18 are from Oshkosh, which is going strong for King so far. I think that one is safer than Dist. 8, to be honest, where blood-red Waukesha is still almost all out.
MGB
@Concerned Citizen: ahhh…sweet sweet reply button.
Anyways, yeah, that was the vulnerable district.
Most of the votes out for district 8 seem to be in Milwaukee county. Any Cheeseheads know what that part of Milw Cty is like?
Linnaeus
@Concerned Citizen:
Yes, SD-32 was considered the mostly likely for a Democratic pickup.
jwb
@aisce: And yet here you are spreading your joy.
Lev
@Turgidson: What the fuck is it with Waukesha? They gonna find another couple thousand votes after the fact?
BlueDWarrior
@Lev: it just feels that way doesn’t it… I have no idea what is going on there
Watch Darling win by the exact amount needed to prevent an automatic recount
Spaghetti Lee
@Turgidson:
Judging from the AP’s site, whatever portions of the suburban counties are in her district don’t have very many people. The three of them put together have about 4,000 votes total so far, while the Milw. County portion has about 18,000 votes. Both have about an equal number of precincts out, but the Milwaukee portion probably has more actual votes left, which is good for Pasch, probably.
Spaghetti Lee
Pasch just pulled even farther ahead. She’s up 58-42 now.
Turgidson
Yeah, if that one is too close to call tonight I’ll just expect all the “adjustments” to bury Pasch. Hopefully the rest of those Milwaukee votes stay strong Dem and drown out Waukesha.
Danny
57% reporting in 8, 5000 votes up.
Anoniminous
@Lev:
I note:
Turgidson
@Spaghetti Lee:
That was short-lived. 51-49 Pasch. Egads.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Elie:
I’m personally going to kick every person who whines about only getting 1 seat out of this runoff out of the Democratic Party.
Spaghetti Lee
@Spaghetti Lee:
Bah, spoke too soon. Pasch up 51-49 with most of the outstanding precincts in Milwaukee and Waukesha.
jwb
@Turgidson: Is Milwaukee sitting on its votes so that Waukesha can’t figure how much to “adjust”?
Pink Snapdragon
@aisce: I grew up in Winnebago County, and much of my family still lives there. Most of them are Republicans, some of them have held local elected offices, and nobody is ready to lay a claim as to how this will turn out. For those of you not from Wisconsin, Winnebago County is where Oshkosh is and the home of one of the UW campuses.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@OzoneR: Does that really surprise you? Lot’s of conservative states used to send Democrats to Washington because they would bring money when they came home.
BlueDWarrior
numbers have been kinda frozen for awhile
Dems still have the advantage although thin in one case and razor-thin in another
this is gonna be an all-nighter
FormerSwingVoter
I picked the wrong night to stop sniffing glue.
lol
I guess Pasch is only up by about 350 now?
suzanne
A very good liberal artist friend of mine moved from Arizona to Wisconsin and routinely tells me how great it is. I remain unconvinced.
This election has the potential to convince me. That and the architecture.
aisce
my emotional security is deeply invested in elections i cannot vote or participate in!
…give it a rest, please. any republican defeat is a good republican defeat. and even if there aren’t as many as you were hoping for, it’s gonna be alright. the fight goes on.
Spaghetti Lee
@lol:
A little under 1,000 per the AP.
MGB
AP seems to have the best county by county run down of the vote. As for Dist 8, more precincts are out in Milwaukee County than Waukesha County. So let’s see. No fat ladies are singing anywhere yet.
OzoneR
@suzanne: As compared to Arizona, it’s heaven.
BlueDWarrior
Hrm, these numbers have been stuck for a good while now… quite concerning…
Reality Check
@BlueDWarrior:
THE RETHUGLICANS STOLE IT!!!!! TAKE TO TEH STREEEETZ MAAN!
Reality Check
It was the Disaster Capitalism!!
jwb
@aisce: You so don’t care about elections you can’t vote or participate in that you choose to troll those election threads instead? You may not be emotionally invested, but you’re seriously messed up.
BlueDWarrior
@Reality Check: You need to chill with the whole liberal strawman putting words in people’s mouths thing.
Can we please get some better trolls up in here, come on man.
jwb
@MGB: Ozaukee also has 5 precincts out. So 15 precincts in Democratic areas, 15 in GOP.
lol chikinburd
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Oh, this was absolutely worth doing. And even if it’s just +2, what it means is that Sen. Dale Schultz is now potentially the most powerful man in Wisconsin. I just fear that too much of #wiunion will have had too much emotional investment in +3.
(ETA: “Kapanke” and “Hopper” were briefly trending nationwide on Twitter, right next to “Rex Grossman”.)
(ETAA: And King has apparently held on (unofficially) to beat Hopper. Thank Christ for that.)
WaterGirl
@BlueDWarrior: I know, he’s like a gleeful 12 year old taunting his little sister. It’s embarrassing.
redbeardjim
King now up by 1200 in 18 with 97% reporting…
Turgidson
King’s up more than a thousand votes – only 3 Oshkosh precincts left. I think she’s got it.
Lev
Looks like King’s gonna pull it out in the 18th.
Spaghetti Lee
King just pulled ahead big with only a few precincts left. It all comes down to District 8.
BlueDWarrior
Ok here we go, King is opening up a 1200 or so vote lead on Hopper.
Please don’t tell me this thing is going to come down to Waukesha County again, please for the love God don’t tell me this…
James E. Powell
The Wisconsin results aren’t a shock, but it is deflating to realize that even when the naked brutality of the Republican agenda is laid right in front of the voters, about half of them will say, yeah, that’s the kind of country I want to live in. These recalls were not exactly a poll of Wisconsin, they were all districts won by Republicans in 2008, if I recall, no? Still, knowing that the best you can do is not good enough hurts.
suzanne
@OzoneR:
I kind of like that the plants bite here. It’s kind of cool.
Dollared
It looks really bad. GOS has a really good barometer – the Supreme Court vote – and it’s all running worse than the Supremes vote.
These are traditionally Republican seats – these were decided in 2008, against the grain of Obama’s win.
The fight simply has to go on. One recall date at a time, until it flips.
Unfortunately, the Wisconsin redistricting and new voting restrictions are next.
The ratchet has wound to the right, and it will not be easily reversed.
MikeJ
@aisce:
Listening to people here you can understand how the media came up with the trope, “this is good news for McCain!”
According to some here, even when we beat Republicans it’s a bad thing for Democrats. The only question is, are they stupid or just trolls?
Turgidson
@jwb:
Yeah…I suspect Darling wins that one by a whisker. Waukesha comes through for the dark side one more time.
Turgidson
A little bit more Milwaukee just gave Pasch a little bit more breathing room. Waukesha waiting patiently to drop the hammer.
Pink Snapdragon
@suzanne: You have to like cold weather, but you won’t have to share your environment with snakes, cockroaches, etc.
FormerSwingVoter
The 8th is gonna be tough. 15 Precincts in Milwaukee still outstanding, along with 15 in Ozaukee and Wauke$ha also to be counted. Could go either way.
Spaghetti Lee
These recalls were not exactly a poll of Wisconsin, they were all districts won by Republicans in 2008, if I recall, no?
Yes, which is why I’m going to pimp-slap anyone who goes off with “What did you expect out of Wisconsin?” if we lose. These are some of the more conservative districts in the state, and special elections and recalls both are notoriously hard to win. It’s been a victory to get this far.
jwb
@Turgidson: Surely the Dems were all over the county this time to ensure that at least the vote tally is honest?
Omnes Omnibus
@suzanne: Wolves, bears, and cougars. Poison ivy, poison oak, and poison sumac. I hope that helps.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@lol chikinburd: I’m also afraid in the other direction. As we’ve seen with emotions over Obama, I worry that people – especially those outside Wisconsin – will forget what it took to win any of these. That kind of work has to be repeated for the next 20 years.
Spaghetti Lee
For what it’s worth, only a tiny portion of Waukesha County is even in District 8, most of it is in other districts. I don’t know if that decreases the potential for shenanigans, but there you go.
Linnaeus
@Spaghetti Lee:
I’m with you. Any Democratic win here is a positive. Build on that.
fhtagn
AP just called it for King. Two pick-ups!
BlueDWarrior
@Spaghetti Lee: we can only hope man… we can only hope.
FormerSwingVoter
AP just called the 18th for King. So that’s two, at least.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@James E. Powell: Yes, all of these people are incumbents with at least two years in since to be recalled you had to have been in there for more than a year. How you interpret the results is up to you, but see my comment above if you try to view them negatively. :)
jwb
@Spaghetti Lee: Actually, if we get two that’s actually better than I thought going into today.
MGB
AP called it for King (D) in Dist 18! That’s 2!
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Spaghetti Lee: Shall we have a contest on what to do with the whiners?
Elie
@Spaghetti Lee:
Ok — so what was the purpose of the recall if these were only, at best, only slimly possible? Seems a lot of energy and resources for a low possibility of success…
Of course, we fight on. It is just a question why you start with these most republican of districts first…the last thing we want to do is further embolden Walker, doncha think? I’m all for a fight, but I like decent odds in a situation like this…
I can be convinced otherwise but I have to wonder…
suzanne
@Pink Snapdragon:
I love cold weather. But I hate football and bratwurst, and am really meh on cheese. And I much prefer tequila to beer. So….
fhtagn
TPM is reporting that the GOP claim to have district 8 wrapped up. Sounds pretty suspicious to me.
FormerSwingVoter
Ugh… Republicans are suddenly feeling very confident about District 8, according to TPM.
Reality Check
@fhtagn:
It’s like 2000 ALL over again.
The future of the Democrat Party in America is a Secretary of State counting ballots in Florida…forever.
Turgidson
Some Ozaukee votes just narrowed it again.
Spaghetti Lee
@Elie:
People are calling them some of the most conservative districts in the state because they’re districts where Republicans won in 2008, during the Democratic wave. Wisconsin law says that you can only recall people who have served at least a year in the current term, so it had to be districts from the ’08 cycle. There were some districts even more Republicans than these where we couldn’t even get enough signatures to trigger a recall.
And if Pasch does end up holding on, it will end up being a very good investment indeed.
BlueDWarrior
@fhtagn: sounds like table-setting for a recount to me… I have no idea how Republican operatives can say that Darling has this race ‘in the bag’ when the numbers just say “it’s a coin flip”.
Elie
@jwb:
Hey! Excellent! If as everyone says, these are heavy Repub areas, these are wonderful victories. Wonderful!
Marc
2 republicans recalled after they beat the 2008 Obama wave? That’s good news. It’s not a tidal wave, but what do you expect? One major point apparently lost in Wisconsin is that Walker is very popular with Republicans there, and that we live in a very polarized culture. How many Democrats would vote for a recall of a D legislator, even if they behaved very badly? What would it take for you to do that?
FYI I expect the forces of darkness to prevail in the 8th. So control doesn’t flip…but a message has been sent. The question is whether the republicans hear it, and I actually hope the answer is no.
Will Reks
Both Ozaukee Co and Waukesha Co will deliver for Darling. I hope what’s left in Milwaukee Co is enough for Pasch.
aisce
@ elie
because republicans tend not to represent democratic leaning districts…
are you serious?
Mnemosyne
@Dollared:
So, out of 6 seats, 3 were retained by (Republican) incumbents, 2 were won by (Democratic) challengers, 1 is still being counted but the Democrat is still in the lead and this is … really bad? Winning 2 (and possibly 3) out of 6 seats is really bad? What would your reaction have been if the Republicans had won all 6?
If you can’t accept anything other than a total blowout as a victory, then you need a perspective transplant, stat.
(Edited to fix over-optimism so as not to jinx things.)
Comrade Luke
So the Dems are up 52-48 with 93% reporting, and the Republicans think they have it wrapped up? WTF?
Suffern ace
Thank goodness that king eked it out. Wisconsin isn’t exactly known for being home to moral scolds, but moving out of your district to take up with a lobbyist was too much of a character flaw to go unnoticed.
Comrade Kevin
@suzanne:
You monster!
jwb
@Elie: Look at those results. We may still take 8, we came close enough to put a scare in 14. The GOP has been on the defensive. I think this was worth a shot, no matter how it had turned out.
Omnes Omnibus
@Elie: Would you have had angry voters sit on their hands for two years? It was a real fucking grassroots effort on the part of people in the state. Official support came later when it would have been a crime to have let everything go on without help.
Spaghetti Lee
@fhtagn: @FormerSwingVoter:
Jesus Christ, people, what do you expect them to say. The same report says that the actual vote-counters don’t agree, so don’t get your panties in a knot.
piratedan
naturally on msn.com the lede is 2 GOP state sens survive recall
Uncle Clarence Thomas
.
.
Fortunately, President Obama didn’t feel the need to stick his big nose into this election like those DIAF firebaggers probably wanted him to. Doesn’t the man have enough life-or-death decisions to make with 7 wars raging, JSOC assassinating villains in 120 countries, and a Catfood II Commission to arm-twist?
.
.
Chris
@James E. Powell:
Sometimes, I think the whole WhatsAMatterWithKansas narrative, of working and middle class voters being duped by machiavellian political strategists manipulating their good honest salt-of-the-earth instincts, was just the liberal intellectuals’ rationalizations so that they could still respect conservative voters.
Allows them to think of them as honest and good people who’ve just been duped, rather than sociopathic racists and class-warmongers who know exactly what they’re voting for and love it. Not every Republican fits that description by a long shot, but there’s still a hell of a lot more of them than anyone on our side of the aisle feels comfortable admitting.
Elie
@Spaghetti Lee:
I gotcha and see that now. Thanks
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Elie: They weren’t, at best, only slimly possible, because the correct number of signatures had to be collected. It just wasn’t going to be a slam dunk case that all would be replaced.
lol
“According to those on the ground, Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus will not report results for at least 1 hour. #wiunion #wirecall #WTF”
jwb
@Comrade Luke: They know when the game is rigged would be one interpretation.
Pink Snapdragon
@suzanne: I live in suburban Washington DC these days and alas, have no way to satisfy the cravings for cheese curds. Is Arizona one of those places you have to buy your liquor from state stores? You can buy it in your neighborhood liquor store in badger country.
Elie
@Omnes Omnibus:
No — you are right. Better to express it appropriately at the ballot box —
kay
Two flips is great.
Is someone minding that corrupt Tea Party county clerk?
She needs watching.
BlueDWarrior
@lol: just marking this down before they find 1 million votes from those outstanding 10 precints
(sigh)
OzoneR
@Uncle Clarence Thomas:
The DIAF firebaggers are even bigger idiots that I thought if they wanted him too.
Mnemosyne
@Marc:
Given that Waukesha County is the one that only has 1 precinct in, I suspect you’re right. Republicans seem to mysteriously find just the votes they need from Waukesha in tight elections.
Elie
@aisce:
thanks aisce.
It was a question for those who know something about this…
obviously doesnt apply to you.
suzanne
@Comrade Kevin: Not big on meat products. I haven’t had bacon in almost 20 years. I forgot what it tastes like.
@Pink Snapdragon: Oh hell no. You can buy liquor practically anywhere. Even the drug store.
Matthew Reid Krell
Where did RC go? Funny how he disappears when Dems start winning.
Spaghetti Lee
@Chris:
In cold tactical terms, I think part if it is not so much respecting them as people as convincing ourselves that enough them can actually be changed if they get the right information. Easier to fight a war you consider winnable.
I think the disconnect may come down to the idea that modern liberals are essentially humanists who don’t like the idea of people being irredeemably evil, and the conservative movement is, at the very least, dominated by ideologues raised on fundie religion and Ayn Rand who tell them that there’s a whole mess of evil people out there, and it’s your duty to resist them. I’ve been known to grumble about the whole “liberals won’t take their own side in an argument” thing, but I think that essential humanism is something worth hanging on to.
Splitting Image
Regardless of what happens in the last district, congrats to our resident Wisconsinites. Even if control of the Senate doesn’t flip, getting one Republican to bail on Walker is a lot easier than getting three.
Fingers still crossed though.
jwb
@kay: That was my thought as well. Our Dems were smart enough to have every watcher they could spare on the place I hope.
BlueDWarrior
@news3jessica
Jessica Arp
Waukesha Co Clerk’s office says 9 of 10 precincts will be on the web in 5 minutes #wirecall
3 minutes ago via TweetDeck
I expect Darling to be leading by 1500 after it’s in, just a wild guess
Spaghetti Lee
From TPM:
11:54: Again from ARP: “Waukesha Co Clerk’s office says 9 of 10 precincts will be on the web in 5 minutes”
fhtagn
Waukesha supposedly (via TPM) claims most of its numbers will be up on the web any minute now.
aisce
@ elie
fair enough. i’ll be the first to admit that i don’t know much about coddling wrist slitting emos who apparently fear “emboldening the enemy.” lulz.
Pink Snapdragon
@suzanne: Go for it – you’ll fit in just fine
Splitting Image
@Matthew Reid Krell:
I still think Reality Check/Change is our old Clinton die-hard MyIQis2xu. They have the exact same posting styles, and they don’t seem to have any interest in the news besides stories that are likely to rile this site’s front-pagers.
WaterGirl
@Matthew Reid Krell: He is so gleeful about being hateful that I alternate between thinking of him as a bratty 12 year old boy and the kid who delights in pulling the wings off flies and killing the neighborhood cats.
Chris T.
@lol: She needs more time to make up the fake count.
Also, two days from now, after the Dem wins in the recount, she’ll discover 40 million votes she left on her kitchen counter.
fhtagn
@Chris T.:
Only 40 million? I expect at least 4 billion from Kathy Nickolaus!
WaterGirl
@kay: Surely they are watching her like a hawk.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@OzoneR: There were a few early on, but I think everyone got talked out of that idea, with the possible exception of Jane Hampster, who I’m sure is looking for more clubs. UCT is actually being a bit subtle tonight in his attempt to stir things up. Is someone else writing for him tonight?
jwb
I’m fantasizing that Milwaukee is messing with Kathy Nickolaus’ head by not posting its final precincts so that she doesn’t know what number she has to hit.
fhtagn
Darling is back in the lead by about 2.6K votes.
WaterGirl
@jwb: That thought makes me smile!
Chris
@Spaghetti Lee:
I suppose I’m somewhere between them. I’d like to think most people are decent, I assume as a rule that a person is until proven otherwise, and I’m okay with everyone having the same rights and services as me no matter what their moral character (as opposed to the Randian/fundie ethic that calls for tracking down and punishing everyone, even if they haven’t done anything).
And I don’t think there’s such a thing as an “irredeemably evil” person, e.g. a person so evil he can’t be redeemed. But I do think that realistically, there are plenty of people who never will be, and that there’s not a lot society can do to change them.
jwb
ok, all but one precinct in Waukesha is now in. What will Milwaukee’s response be?
Reality Check
Darling WINS!
It’s over, folks. Goodnight.
fhtagn
@Reality Check:
Panicking so quickly, trollikins?
BlueDWarrior
Looks to be Darling +2500, and you still got 12 Milwaukee and 4 Ozakuzee precints out
just doing some MSCalc math, I have no fraggin clue, I doubt either woman wins by more than 500 tonight
Mnemosyne
@jwb:
She’s posted 10 of her 11 precincts. Milwaukee still has 11 precincts that haven’t reported. It would amuse the crap out of me if your surmise was correct.
WaterGirl
I think Pasch (D) pulls it out. The question remains, though – how many extra votes are in the sleazy lady’s purse?
jwb
@Reality Check: Too chicken to wait for Milwaukee, I see.
PeakVT
On Waukesha – aren’t there Democratic monitors in each precinct that know what numbers are being sent in?
Snowwy
Were I the Milwaukee Registrar of Voters or summat, I’d have sat on the votes for ALL the elections until Waukesha reported in. Too many past shenanigans to even consider leaving that avenue open.
But as that’s probably unlawful, I’ll just hope that third seat goes blue, and be glad I don’t work in government.
WaterGirl
Let me guesss… the one remainig precint in Waukesha is solid republican, right?
BlueDWarrior
@WaterGirl: which ones arent?
jwb
@Snowwy: I bet Milwaukee has been VERY careful in checking its totals, adding extra steps to slow the reporting process down.
Danny
Darling 3000 up with 80% reporting
fhtagn
Supposedly Milwaukee is due any minute now.
Snowwy
@jwb:
That’d work.
WaterGirl
@BlueDWarrior: You make an excellent point. It’s late and I am oxygen deprived – the whole “holding your breath” thing got its name for a reason. I have been barely breathing for the past hour. Very shallow breaths.
jwb
Darling is now up by about 3100 votes. Another precinct from Ozaukee reported (3 left). I’m not sure if Milwaukee has enough votes to make up the difference, but fingers crossed.
fhtagn
(via TPM)
FormerSwingVoter
Unofficially:
http://twitter.com/#!/news3jessica
(does some math)
Well, fuck.
TooManyJens
@fhtagn: Not motherfucking Waukesha County AGAIN.
…yes, I’m that late to the thread. Still. FUCK.
jenn
Wow. This is fantastic. Even more fantastic, if we could have swept the lot, of course, but still. Congratulations to the Wisconsin activists for showing the nation how it’s done!
(And yes, I share everyone’s distrust of Nickolaus’ vote-tallying capability. I certainly hope she had someone looking over her shoulder!)
JGabriel
Deleted due to apparent wrongness.
.
WaterGirl
@JGabriel: Okay, deleting my response, then, too. :-)
Spaghetti Lee
@WaterGirl:
I think at some point, you’ve got to put it out there, at least let it get a spot in the narrative, especially when it’s the same election clerk, same county, all that jazz. It may be kind of sleazy, but we all know that if a Democrat had pulled out a close one thanks to a very Democratic city, we wouldn’t hear the end of it from the Right. Nothing wrong with giving as good as you get.
JGabriel
@Spaghetti Lee:
Fairly or unfairly (and I suspect the former), Kathy Nicolaus is getting a global reputation as one of the most corrupt political figures in the US.
Seriously. Kathy Nicolaus is trending Worldwide on Twitter.
I hope her ears are burning.
.
WaterGirl
@Spaghetti Lee: I think the Democrats should fight this result tooth and nail. That woman has no business holding the position she does. She is either stealing votes or is incompetent beyond all comprehension.
I don’t think it’s sleazy at all.
WaterGirl
@JGabriel: I am too tired to read them all, but I can happily stop after reading this one:
I laughed out loud.
Mnemosyne
@FormerSwingVoter:
Still waiting for AP to post the results — AFAICT, Wisconsin doesn’t post live results.
Weird that it’s been over half an hour since the tweet with “official” results and not a peep from AP.
ETA: And it’s not like they’re not updating at all — they just posted the results from the last precinct in Waukesha.