The latest judgment from one of the Guardian’s reporters on the ground:
Having been at the front line it’s clear to me, I think, the regime in Tripoli – it’s a matter of days, or even hours, before it collapses. The rebels are advancing, they’re more or less at the gates of Tripoli… My sense is that Tripoli will fall in the next day or two, possibly as early as tomorrow.
Here’s a thread for Libya-related discussion.
Villago Delenda Est
OK, so Tripoli falls and the Colonel is out of power…dead, or in exile, or whatever.
Then what?
Interesting times. We’ll have to see how this plays out, I’m not sure that the movement which has a focus now will have one with the Colonel gone.
The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik
Considering how rosy the military escapades are made out to be in progress only to turn turtle after some ‘unforeseen circumstances’?
I’ll believe it when I see Ghaddafi frogmarched out for the cameras. And like said, even if it happens, what then? The record for ‘post-wars’ in the area are remarkably awful too.
MattF
I’d think that Algeria is really the big deal in North Africa, and not so much Libya. One can only wonder what they think in Algiers about NATO bombing Tripoli…
moonbat
Well, before we start nitpicking the aftermath, which is uncertain, let’s take a minute or two to appreciate the fact that a cruel dictator is about to be booted out and that in itself is no small cause for celebration.
Tawanchai
Stupid insensitive comments 1-3. People are fighting for their lives against a tyrant using war weapons against his own people. And this is all they can think about. Not a shred of humanity.Pathetic.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est:
@The Snarxist Formerly Known As Kryptik: If the US and the rest of NATO have any sense, the Libyans will get to work things out on their own, without interference but with support.
Xopher
@moonbat: I agree. Getting rid of this bastard is a clear good.
That said, we’ll see what comes after. Egypt hasn’t done so well so far, though they seem to be at least a little better off than they were under Mubarak.
arguingwithsignposts
@Omnes Omnibus: If we could keep the multinational oil companies from interfering, i expect the outcome would be better for the libyan people.
Can’t you imagine the exec offices at BP, ExxonMobil, etc. are having champagne parties as we speak?
Omnes Omnibus
@arguingwithsignposts: Maybe the new people will handle the oil money like Norway has. I know, I’m dreaming.
Villago Delenda Est
I don’t think Libya will experience the same thing as Iraq, in which the deserting coward malassministration removed the terrible dictator (with rape rooms…now under new management!) and discovered that they needed to replace him with a secular Sunni strongman to keep the entire patchwork “country” under control.
The big winner in the US invasion of Iraq: Iran.
OzoneR
@arguingwithsignposts:
meh, it’s not as if Qaddafi wasn’t giving the world access to the oil, who knows if whatever follows him will?
arguingwithsignposts
@OzoneR: I’m sure they’ll sell the oil. The question is: what kind of contracts will they set up with the MNOCs? Hopefully, it’s not a give-away of their most profitable natural resource.
Amanda in the South Bay
@Villago Delenda Est:
Well, it helps that Libya is overwhelmingly Sunni, for starters. The only possible divide I can think of is Berber/Arab, and I don’t think that that has really been an issue so far.
JPL
From the guardian
JPL
Someone on the right mentioned during the Egyptian uprising that we should support Mubarak because of what could happen with the rebel takeover.
I mentioned that “Freedom isn’t free” and the middle east deserves a chance to live without dictators. The freedom isn’t free line shuts up the whackos quickly.
Villago Delenda Est
@Amanda in the South Bay:
It will be interesting to see if the rebel coalition breaks down along tribal lines in the wake of their triumph. Do they have a leader capable of bridging those differences and maintaining a focus once Qadaffi is no longer around to serve as the focus?
Then there is always the question, in a situation like this, of how you deal with the Qaddafi loyalist foot soldiers who were “dead enders” all the way to, well, the end?
Maude
The Rebels have exported oil from fields they have taken over. The first time they used a ship from Liberia to ship the oil.
Dennis SGMM
A minor digression here. The Guardian has reporters on the ground. I can’t imagine the courage that it would take to voluntarily place oneself in the midst of an armed revolution and my hat’s off to them. Now, no reporters from the NYT, LA Times, ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, etc.? That’s pathetic.
Samara Morgan
@Tawanchai: well the juicers cant firebag Obama or scream about the slippery slope to OIF II if Qaddafi steps down.
So they have to move the goal posts.
Davis X. Machina
@OzoneR: It has to be about the oil, and only about the oil, doesn’t it?
The high-water mark of left Blogistan was the run-up to the invasion of Iraq and the beginning of the war there, and the concomitant opposition to the Bush regime.
Everything else, till the end of time, will be seen through that prism, like Vietnam is for the right. It was the internet Left’s Spitfire summer.
karen marie
I’m reposting this link about Libya’s Great Man-Made River (“GMR”) from the earlier Libya thread, because I think it important to understand that oil is not their only valuable asset.
Davis X. Machina
@Dennis SGMM:
It’s expensive, as well as dangerous. Mostly expensive.
Sam Houston
Google Maps Tripoli Fighting
We’re definitely on the other side of the looking glass now.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
It ain’t over ’til its over, but I for one will shed no tears if Gaddafi winds up strung up on a Tripoli meathook.
As for what happens next, no democracy’s perfect, but there’s a lot of vested interest in keeping Libya from falling apart into Somalia II. I can already imagine Berlusconi coming to the rebels on bended knee to make sure the crude keeps flowing north.
Samara Morgan
@Amanda in the South Bay: the Muslim Brotherhood is supporting the rebels, along with islamist parties like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and the student organizations.
Qaddadfi has bought and paid for chad mercs and his local consanguineous tribe.
/points and laffs
concern troll!
Samara Morgan
@JPL: exactly. and that is why NATO is on the win side in Odessey Dawn– because we are on the same side as the people and the islamists for once.
and all the firebagger emoprogs here at BJ can clutch their pearls over Fear of an Islamist Government and fall on their fainting couches, but that is what is gunna happen.
Dennis SGMM
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-:
I can already imagine Berlusconi coming to the rebels
on bended kneewith a bevy of hookers to make sure the crude keeps flowing north.FIXT
Southern Beale
Sorry, this isn’t Libya related. I didn’t see another thread for it … but here’s a very brief recap of last night’s Balloon Juice meet-up in Seattle.
Villago Delenda Est
@Sam Houston:
Interesting map. Based on reports from specific coordinates on who controls what.
Funny that one of the Qaddafi strongholds is off the coast in the drink. Must be a bad coordinate sent in.
Joel
@Tawanchai: What was wrong with those comments? People are expressing legitimate concern for the aftermath in Libya. Or haven’t you followed Iraq?
Davis X. Machina
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: Only the crude, though. What could cook Berlusconi’s goose politically is half of Libya turning up in small boats off the coast of Calabria. Oil you can buy someplace else.
Come si dice “Marielitos” in italiano?
John Puma
@Dennis SGMM: No it’s BOTH the crude and the underage hookers that Berlusconi wants to continue flowing north.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Davis X. Machina: Which is why I imagine the Italians will be the first ashore with their ‘Democrazia For Dummies’ books for just that reason.
Where I just had a not-so-good revelation, however, is who’s going to help bankroll the Libyan rebuilding. Italy’s broke and Germany and France have to be pretty protective of the checkbook right now.
bob h
This looks like a victory for “leading from behind”; we achieved our goals without bombing the bejeesus out of another Muslim country. But I doubt Republicans will even acknowledge the win.
Villago Delenda Est
@Davis X. Machina:
One of the not-so-obvious problems with colonial empires is that those who collaborated with the empire, when the situation changes, often seek refuge from the anti-empire shitstorm on the shores of the imperial home country.
Villago Delenda Est
@bob h:
Well, of course not. They didn’t acknowledge the success in Kosovo, either. Instead, they were terribly concerned about the absence of an “exit plan”.
Funny, they didn’t seem to worry about that in the build up or during the deserting coward’s excellent adventure in Mesopotamia…
SBJules
NPR has reporters in Libya. I think Ghaddahi should hook up with the Syria butcher and go off together into the sunset.
Constance
At the beginning of the Arab Spring I heard a historian talking about the revolutions in Europe–I believe in the 1700s. Country after country had uprisings/revolutions and none of them took. They were all beaten into the ground. Twenty years later they all were at some level of democracy. His talk gave me a longer view.
It will be interesting to see how many democracies (not necessarily our version) emerge from the Arab Spring.
Gee, maybe we didn’t need to liberate Iraq, killing a million or so citizens in the process.
Tawanchai
@Joel: Iraq is completely different to Libya. A conflict afterwards is surely better than the suffering under G. Have you read about what he has been doing to his own people, as if they were cockroaches and rats. Unacceptable to any decent individual.
Davis X. Machina
@Villago Delenda Est:Who’s ‘the empire’? Who are the harkis?
Villago Delenda Est
@Constance:
He was probably talking about Europe in the first half of the 19th century (the big year of revolutions was 1848), and he would be mistaken if he thought that in 20 years all those countries were democracies. They did have things like parliaments and political parties, but a lot of that was window dressing.
It took the trauma of two world wars..a century later…to actually “win” the revolutions of the first half of the 19th century.
Omnes Omnibus
@Constance: Were they talking about 1848, by any chance?
Violet
@Dennis SGMM:
I thought NBC’s Richard Engel was in Tripoli. Granted, he’s at the fancy hotel the journalists stay at, but he’s been out with the rebels off and on through this whole thing.
As an aside, he also did a really cool segment showing one of the ancient Mediterranean ruins of an old city (I think) that has been largely untouched because of the political situation in Libya over the last 50 years or so. The water viaduct system was still even working. So, so cool. Stuff like that is going to be tourism gold for the new Libya if the hostilities end and it becomes safe for visitors.
Villago Delenda Est
@Tawanchai:
Oh, so those who die in the aftermath are less dead than those who die in the glorious revolution.
I see.
Samara Morgan
@Villago Delenda Est: like the shah.
the embassy hostage crisis was a direct result of the shah gettin’ asylum in America after the islamic revolution.
Brian R.
@bob h:
Oh, they’ll acknowledge the win, but they’ll claim it came from their bitching.
Samara Morgan
@Villago Delenda Est: well at least America wont owe reparations for them.
A Humble Lurker
@Violet:
Would like to say that one thing I’ve learned definitively since the Arab Spring began is that Engel is a pretty cool dude. He’s been doing admirable reporting, and he’s been in the way of real danger more than once.
Samara Morgan
@Joel: see my comment above.
John Puma
Yes, Qadaffi, like so many others is a “tyrant using war weapons against his own people.” (No. 5, above.)
But your tax dollars are never spent simply to kill people so people won’t be killed.
A wikileaks cable explains the catalyst for our involvement. The tyrant in question informed the transnational corporations already present in Libyan oil fields that they were to put up the money
he had agreed to pay that he had been fined for terrorist activities. So Qadaffi’s transgression was NOT “killing his own people” but the ONE sure fire way to get your ass attacked by the US: threatening oil company profits.
Do you, taxpayer, think our “involvement” will cost less than $1.5 billion. Do you think Obama has secured from these oil companies, before committing US military “assets,” their guarantee that the Libyan oil goes only to America? Hint, the answers are NO and NO.
Add this to your collection of examples of murderous transnational corporate welfare.
A summary of the wire follows
“A February 2009 cable from the State Department’s Libyan embassy recounts the pressure exerted by top Libyan officials to force U.S. and global companies operating in the country to cover the costs of a $1.5 billion payment that Libya had agreed to make for its role in the Lockerbie bombing and other terrorist attacks. Some companies appeared willing to make the payments demanded of them, but others balked.”
The cable
http://tinyurl.com/3n6op48
gogol's wife
@Dennis SGMM:
I imagine that C. J. Chivers of the NYTimes is still there. He’s been doing fantastic reports with the rebels all the way along. If he’s not reporting, maybe something happened to him (God forbid).
JPL
@Dennis SGMM: There’s a few reporters. The NYTimes is following Engle and Matthew Chance
link
aisce
@ omnes omnibus
the ntc is basically being run out of qatar and dubai, so that should give a decent indication of what type of reconstruction and corporate governance will likely follow.
if iraq was a neoconservative project, rebirthing a new libya will be a thoroughly neoliberal one.
no offense to the tens of thousands who gave their lives to liberating their country, but the war itself is almost never the end of the story. it’s a bright shiny bauble for western idiots to fret about or puff their chests over, but the fate of muammar gaddafi was never in doubt. nato has never lost a war to an official army (i’m leaving myself an obvious loophole to describe the ongoing counterinsurgency woes in afghanistan). whether it took three months, six months, or a year, he was done for after the unsc resolution was passed.
so while commentators like to rah rah over glorious wars of liberation, it’s the years that follow that decide the success of the endeavor. building accountable security and judicial services, making sure oil billions don’t mysteriously find their way into numbered swiss bank accounts while the price of bread is half a day’s salary for the man on the street, etc.
Violet
@A Humble Lurker:
I fell for Engel back before the Iraq war started. He was in Baghdad and was the only US reporter who didn’t leave (that I know of, anyway). He was an independent reporter and first worked for ABC (I think) as a freelancer. NBC snapped him up right quick and he’s been with them ever since.
During the early part of the war in Iraq, he’d be out on the street talking to regular Iraqis. I guess he communicated in Arabic? I know he speaks it. He had lived in Egypt for several years running a paper there prior to going to Iraq. He’s been all over the Middle East and the Arab world.
Because of his ability to speak the language and extensive knowledge of the cultures and customs in the region, he can get much closer to the truth of what’s going on that reporters who are dependent on translators. I know he’s not perfect, but I always feel like I’m getting a real view into what’s going on when he does a report.
John Puma
@Constance: Iraq is NOT liberated. It is occupied by us and they have approved our military staying beyond the date Bush had arranged for our departure and Obama campaigned to honor, Dec 31 2011.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S.–Iraq_Status_of_Forces_Agreement
gogol's wife
I’m wrong, it looks as if Chivers of the NYT is in Turkmenistan now, but he has had a series of fascinating reports from Libya that must have put him in great danger, in among the rebels. The NYT still has a few great reporters like him, which is why Dowd, Helene Cooper, Joe Blow, Jeff Zeleny et al haven’t yet made me give up my subscription.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@aisce: I’m set up for another Obot v Firebagger war and you come here with facts, logic, and reason. You do know where you’re posting at, right?
Seriously though, I completely agree.
Villago Delenda Est
I’m reminded of that scene in Lawrence of Arabia, towards the end, where the various leaders of the coalition that took Damascus from the Turks are fighting over who controls what, who gets what…and ignoring practical considerations like how the water works, um, works…
Victory is no assurance of resolution of conflict. The aftermath of war…any war…might bring an end to lots of loud noises and explosions, but there is still a hell of a lot of work to be done that the previous workhorses might not be suited to taking on.
Amir Khalid
It’s a little early to make any judgments about the competence of Libya’s new management-in-waiting. Let them actually start work before we commence the second-guessing, okay?
For now, I just want to see this rebellion brought to a successful conclusion (i.e. Qaddafi out of power; whether he goes to jail or into exile is a secondary matter), with the minimum of additional bloodshed. I want a peaceful transition of power to the transitional authority, with elections to elect a democratic leadership arranged as soon as is practical.
elisabeth
@John Puma~it’s is good thing the stars aligned two years later to give cover for the US to oust Gaddafi.
Violet
@aisce:
This is so true. Helping the people after the despot is gone is crucial.
If the Chinese act true to form, they’ll be in Libya spending money on building bridges, roads, schools, hospitals, etc. in return for access to that sweet, sweet oil. China is all over the African continent and have been for the last 20 years or so. The US is way behind on the race for influence in Africa. We’ll probably mess this one up too and refuse to spend any money to help the Libyans because of our deficit.
stinkfoot
Concern for the aftermath is not clutching pearls, it’s learning from history that war is followed by fragile periods for rebuilding and recovery that leave innocent people (i.e., the vast majority of citizens) vulnerable to well-organized elite interests. I hope the rebels cohere to form a strong, independent movement to establish a government that serves the needs of the people; whether they do it via a “Jeffersonian” or “Hamiltonian” democracy or, more likely, go through a messy process vacillating between strong arm tactics and democratic experimentation, the end result should be a functional government that can coordinate competing factions.
Our role as citizens of the West is to demand our own governments respect human rights, serve humanitarian needs, and keep multinational corporations in check. The track record of our governments in this regard is spotty at best, and criminal at worst. We should take no official proclamations for granted.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@John Puma: [[ citation needed ]] ’cause I’m not seeing anything other than Gates and al-Maliki mentioning ‘discussions’.
Samara Morgan
@John Puma: they have NOT approved the US staying on.
the dinar traders have the real scoop.
.
Iraq has to kick America out so it can form an alliance with Iran.
the generals are wetting their pants over it, but i think America is not going to have any LIVE troops left in Iraq.
Because if there are 10000 american troops still in Iraq after the december SOFA dead line, then Muqtada and the Mahdi army are going to ensure they are DEAD American troops.
moonbat
@Amir Khalid: This. And let’s leave Lawrence of Arabia out of this, okay? People are so enamored of the corporate/colonial model that they invariably infantilize the residents of the country as incapable of “making the trains run on time” without a dictator telling them what to do. Perchance the Libyans have some plans for what they’d like their future to look like. Why don’t we ask them?
Omnes Omnibus
@aisce: Thank you for educating me on this. I would never have known that the end of the fighting does not end the process, if you hadn’t pointed it out. I am so enlightened now.
Villago Delenda Est
@stinkfoot:
Sadly, one of the things that our elites are the least inclined to do.
Samara Morgan
@stinkfoot: its not our bidness.
and we cant do anything about what sort of government they choose anyways.
America tried for 10 years and 4.4 trillion dollars in Iraq and A-stan, and we are gettin nothing out of that.
America tried by propping Mubarak and the Shah, and you can see how that turned out.
Pax Americana is OVAH, you dimwitted cudlips.
and after the Arab Spring, the American Fall.
Frankensteinbeck
@Amir Khalid:
This, I’m afraid, is a little more like a typical war thread. Still fairly peaceful, but it’s early yet.
aisce
@ omnes
you asked who was influencing the transitional government, so i told you who was influencing the transitional government.
then i addressed the rest of the thread’s topics. so what, exactly, is this little hissyfit really about?
Villago Delenda Est
@moonbat:
The only reason I used that Lawrence of Arabia example is because it typifies how coalitions brought together against a common enemy tend to break up and revert to the old way of doing things once the common enemy is out of the way.
It is my sincere hope that such a fate does not befall the Libyan rebels in the aftermath of the fall of that bastard Qaddafi, but history suggests otherwise. Don’t know if they’ve gone into this with that in mind, but again, without the common focus, things deteriorate, and fast. Which is why I hope they’ll find a leader all can respect who can bring wisdom and courage to the aftermath.
Oh, and for the benefit of the obtuse out there, this has to be organic, to succeed it can’t be imposed from outside. The Libyans need to figure this out themselves. It’s their party. Here’s hoping it’s a good one.
Derf
But if General Cole were in charge we never would have went in there in the first place and we would be stuck with Gadaffi.
So as usual, Cole was WRONG! He and Kristol should get together for a fail tour. Kristol could talk about how Iraq was the right thing to do and Cole could talk about how Libya was the wrong thing to do.
Samara Morgan
check this shit out.
the Sauds are going to raise an army.
moonbat
@Villago Delenda Est: The reason I detest the Lawrence of Arabia example is because the aftermath of those conflicts led the British empire to “create” nations to suit themselves without regard to political, ethnic or religions differences like…Iraq. And we all know how well that has turned out.
Samara Morgan
@Derf: im hoping Cole is going to acknowledge he was wrong about Libya.
he was a Hero once.
Villago Delenda Est
@moonbat:
Oh, agree with you there…but that was the plan all along. Lawrence was just a tool for the usual gang to expand the Empire at the expense of the Ottomans.
The needs of the actual inhabitants was never seriously considered, at all. They are not, to this day.
The needs of the actual inhabitants were not a concern of the various leaders of the coalition forces that took Damascus, either.
Dan K.
You know that this means right? Stock market drops. People lose trust. This war must be stopped.
Omnes Omnibus
@aisce: Actually, I asked nothing of the kind. I made an observation; there was not question, either implicit or explicit, in my comment.
Omnes Omnibus
@Villago Delenda Est:
Exactly right.
aisce
@ omnes
beyond the fact that by focusing entirely on europe and america you displayed your total ignorance of the actual regional dynamics that will influence the future libyan state?
Derf
@Samara Morgan: Not just about Libya…..and don’t hold your breath.
OzoneR
@Samara Morgan:
meh, that’s been proven to be untrue. The hostage takers planned the attack weeks before the Shah came to America. He was still in Mexico when the planning started. It happened only two weeks after he arrived in the US.
Besides, he never lived in asylum in the US, he came here for surgery and was here less than two months before going to Panama and Egypt.
JPL
The battle for libya is good news for John McCain
According to CBS news and the Guardian
“”Looking ahead to a possible rebel victory in the civil war, John McCain said it will be very difficult to build a united democratic government there, due to the tribal rivalries.
“We’ve seen the difficulties with other countries who made this transition, but we will be rid of a guy who has the blood of Americans on his hands. We will be rid of a guy who has practised the worst kind of brutalities. And now it’s going to be up to us and the Europeans.”
Omnes Omnibus
@aisce: Almost a fair point. Speaking as an American, I offered a view of what I thought US and, by extension, NATO policy should be. I don’t see that as unreasonable. Nevertheless, I reiterate that I had not asked a question, so your reply that you were answering my question is a bit off the mark.
Cermet
Do any of you who keep harping on if the rebels can run the country ever bother to read? The rebels have controled much of the country and many major cities for some months and I have yet to here that things are going bad – appears the educated population with a 1st world infrastructure is doing fairly well.
licensed to kill time
@Dennis SGMM:
I watch CNN Int’l and they have Sara Sidner traveling with a rebel group and doing video reports, also Matthew Chance is in Tripoli reporting.
Omnes Omnibus
@Derf:
@Samara Morgan:
FWIW most of those who opposed involvement in Libya are basically against any and all foreign military involvements. The fact that one might go well does not affect the fact that they opposed it. Also, as a number of people have noted above and on the previous thread, those of us who approved of the Libya mission would not have had our entire philosophical outlook disproved had the rebellion not succeeded. Finally, it is early days yet, and one does need to see where Libya ends up as a result of this before one can fairly judge the efficacy of the incoming government.
Samara Morgan
@OzoneR: wallah…its what the iranian students SAID. they took the embassy hostages so the US wouldn’t try to bring the Shah.
eemom
@Samara Morgan:
what the Iranian students said, was said before you were born.
Therefore applying your own ridiculous logic, it’s irrelevant to the current discussion. Dead Persian-guy philosophers.
OzoneR
@Samara Morgan:
They sought the shah’s return to the country to be executed as ransom to release the hostages, but the attack was planned months in advance to retaliate against putting the shah on the throne in the first place. They had actually considered attacking the Soviet embassy as well.
eemom
here’s a question for the educated: on last night’s, ahem, ADULTS ONLY thread on this topic, someone said I was wrong about the Libyan conflict being tribal. However, I did hear on NPR or someplace, a person with authority on the subject saying that Moomar’s rise to power was the culmination of centuries of conflict between eastern and western tribes, and that east-west division certainly seems to have been front and center in the present situation as well.
Information?
Jewish Steel
@eemom:
Oh yeah! I plum forgot that one. What happened to that, anyway?
What was it called again, m_c? 1st culture thinking?
eta:Blockquote CATASTROPHE! (a little hyperbolic, I know)
Shawn in ShowMe
@Omnes Omnibus:
Understood, but they weren’t talking about most people, they were talking specifically about Cole. And as far I know, JC isn’t opposed to all foreign military involvements.
Svensker
@Derf:
never would have GONE
Grammar, please.
Omnes Omnibus
@Shawn in ShowMe: Might be semantics here, but I think that these days Cole comes very close to that point of view.
Munira
@Dennis SGMM: The NYT has someone reporting from Zawiyah.
Jewish Steel
@Svensker: Paix, mon cher Sven. Nous Derf es un Canadien.
(je pense mon francais c’est trop de mangled. fetchez la vache!)
Samara Morgan
@Omnes Omnibus: well, Coles big objection was that Odessy Dawn was OIF II.
do you want links?
aisce
@ cermet
that’s kind of a weird comment. the only place in libya that hasn’t been touched by the war in months is benghazi. which is doing fine for itself, to be sure. peace is basically restored to places to misrata and the isolated mountain cities now, but there hasn’t really been any move away from ad hoc revolutionary muddling through towards a centralized government. just local communities doing the best they can. it doesn’t really say anything about building a fully functional state with national (and international) policy.
if i had to guess, i’d assume the future libya will look a lot like its neighbor tunisia in terms of culture and religious moderation (though libya is more devoutly muslim than tunisia, there’s little islamist presence), and then pattern itself economically and geopolitically after the arab emirates and qatar. it wouldn’t surprise me if tripoli and benghazi are the north african capitals of global high finance ten years from now.
Omnes Omnibus
@Samara Morgan: I know that. No need for links. I think Cole now sees all military action as potentially being OIF II and since he was burned on that one, he wants to avoid it again.
ETA: For the record, I engaged with the substance of your post, not the tone or style. So put that in your pipe and smoke it.
eemom
@Svensker:
Yer talkin to a guy who thinks spelling his name backward is a brilliant disguise.
I’m afraid grammar is a little….ambitious.
Shawn in ShowMe
@Omnes Omnibus:
JC, while regularly pointing out the idiocy of “both sides do it” on domestic issues, does have a tendency to rush to judgment when it comes to Obama’s foreign policy decisions. We all have our foibles.
Villago Delenda Est
@Cermet:
They have controlled most of the country while they still have a focus for their energy: Qaddafi. Take him away, and what happens?
Victory changes things.
Samara Morgan
@eemom: the islamists and students are on the OTHER side.
Qaddafi outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood fifteen years ago.
now theyre baaaaaack.
eemom
@Jewish Steel:
Votre francais est beaucoup moins mangled que l’anglais de notre Enfant Terrible.
Omnes Omnibus
@Shawn in ShowMe: Not arguing that. Foible-wise, I have my own.
Samara Morgan
@Omnes Omnibus: i’d welcome a discussion on Humanitarian Interventionism and Right-to-Protect Doctrine.
but Cole wasnt interested in that. He was all about the slipperly slope.
Samara Morgan
@eemom: tant pis, dame vieux.
eemom
somebody should lure Joe from Lowell back over here to taunt Cole properly.
Frankly, the flaming has been a little anemic so far. Are folks feeling ok?
aisce
@ eemom
the tribes thing is overexaggerated. most of it was really started and exacerbated by gaddafi through his divisive patronage networks. libya isn’t at all like yemen or syria or afghanistan.
the big thing is arab-amazigh(berber) relations. but the berbers have historically been content to just be left the fuck alone. i imagine future libya will deal with that in much the same way algeria did. federal recognition of berber language and culture for the amazigh, and pan-arabism for the arabs, and never the twain shall meet.
the danger for libya isn’t being consumed by internal conflict, it’s that all that sweet, sweet oil money is just begging for another populist strongman or unaccountable cabal of profiteers to come after.
eemom
@Samara Morgan:
Only 2 shopping days left to my 49th birthday!
Samara Morgan
wow….no one here cares that the Sauds are ginnin’ up their own army?
dont you care about gas prices?
Villago Delenda Est
@aisce:
Which seems to be a lot of the problem. When you have ideologues who INSIST that everyone needs to live as the ideologues see fit, it, well, upsets many people who would usually not get energized about things.
Villago Delenda Est
@Samara Morgan:
Doesn’t occur to you, does it, that while we might care, we don’t care to discuss it with you.
Samara Morgan
@Villago Delenda Est: ahh, that explains it.
Community uber alles!
Yutsano
Why are y’all arguing with the child?
Samara Morgan
i think the whole Saud army thing explains why that Kenyah soshul1st blackity black guy in the WH is trying to leave 10k troops in Iraq while simultaneously promising to GTFO.
do you think we will give the Sauds nukes like Our Crazy Ex-GF Israel?
fhtagn
@Samara Morgan:
vieille dame, not dame vieux. Apparently you missed French as well as basic biology, logic, philosophy, history and English.
Bloody cud-lip.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: OT, but has there any movement after the 2 interviews?
aisce
that’s kinda weird what happened to my italics there. i’m surprised it didn’t screw up the rest of the thread. or has that wordpress bug been fixed?
Yutsano
@aisce: I think it’s been adjusted, not totally fixed. However FYWP has been very cranky about the placement of close tags lately.
Omnes Omnibus
@WaterGirl: One, sadly, has resulted in a non-offer. The other is still pending.
Todd Dugdale
@Samara Morgan:
Yeah, everybody’s stupid but you. We’ve heard that before. From you, in fact. Putative stupidity noted.
stinkfoot
@Samara Morgan: I’m not saying Western powers should have a hand in how Libyans determine their country’s fate, given that a) outside powers always fuck it up, b) it would bite us in the ass, esp. if we were coercive and c) the right to self-determination should be inviolable and is a fundamental tenet of the UN Charter. But Western powers will get their hands in the game, anyway; the best we can do is demand they don’t get dirty and play a supporting role. Whether or not they listen or give a shit is another matter altogether.
Samara Morgan
@stinkfoot: sooo….does this explain why O jumped in on the right side of history for once?
the Libyans might turn out to be genuine allies, instead of corrupted allies like the Sauds, or invaded and occupied “allies” like Iraq.
LongHairedWeirdo
If this turned out to be an apparent smashing success, I wonder if rightwingers will invent their own terms, or whether they’ll talk about US imperialism.
My guess is that they’ll try to use talk about US imperialism as mockery to try to quiet dissent for when a “real President” (a Republican, in other words) wants to do something worse.
(As a side note: I don’t *care* how successful this is, though I *do* hope it works well for the Libyan people. Who wouldn’t? But I do wish Congress had fought harder to demand some level of control over this. We really need the War Powers Act to be clarified and changed if it’s not binding.)
Samara Morgan
@fhtagn: LOL
i only have the remnants of schoolgirl french, dans ma lycee.
have you thought more about our discussion of Hume and Dead White Guy Phailosophers?
Samara Morgan
@Todd Dugdale: hmmm….you might be stupid….or you just might be unaware.
Samara Morgan
@fhtagn: you know….all your crits of me are so offtopic.
is it radar chaff?
or just confetti?
Samara Morgan
thats like the synopsis of Balloon Juice.
you look so good on the outside.
Dennis SGMM
You can argue the case for, or against, intervention in the Libya until the cows come home and neither side is going to change its mind about it.
What I found dispiriting was Obama’s assertion that our actions in Libya were not hostilities. Not only was that pure bullshit on the face of it, his statement also opened the door for future Republican presidents to make that same assertion while end-running Congress.
WaterGirl
@Omnes Omnibus: We will hope for the one that is still pending. They say if you are getting interviews, you will get a job.
Even with the non-offer, at least they got back to you. A friend of mine was invited to apply for a job by the person who was hiring, and even he had to find out the grapevine that the position had been filled. Even after the invitation to apply, they never even had the courtesy to let him know the outcome. My pet peeve. That, and people who don’t pull over immediately when they hear an ambulance.
Yutsano
@Dennis SGMM: That’s actually more an example of Congressional fail. When a President overreaches (and O did I’m not arguing that point) it’s Congress’ job to put him back in line. All they did was send him a sternly worded letter. Which meant they were just fine with the state of affairs as it was. And if Libya turned into a disastrous slaughter or endless quagmire you bet your asses they’d be
fundraising off itcrowing about it.Dennis SGMM
@Yutsano:
If post-Qaddafi Libya turns into a cluster in any of the many ways that it might Obama will still own it. Then there’s also the matter of who is going to get stuck with the bill for all of the shit that was blown up.
Constance
@Villago Delenda Est:
You are probably right–my memory is a sieve. I blame it on age because I can but it’s probably more my short attention span. When my project is completed, the one that has eaten up my life for six months, I’ll see if I can find the talk and perhaps offer something concrete.
Even if I was wrong, the important thing for me was to realize (again) that revolutions don’t make everything better overnight. People have to learn how to live in a different environment where they think for themselves. Not unlike a woman who leaves a long-time abusive marriage. Autonomy does not come quickly or easily. I believed in the Cuban Revolution long after most people saw it wasn’t working for everyone. It’s the old “and then we will live happily ever after syndrome.” It dies hard. LOL
@Omnes Omnibus:
See above. I don’t know. I’m going to ask my friend the encyclopedia if he can get me on the right track so I can talk to y’all. It was such a lovely idea and I’m so sorry I fucked it up completely. :-)
CaseyL
The Libyan rebellion – in fact, the whole Arab Spring – has been protracted, and largely inconclusive (in terms of how much improvement the new regimes will be over the old).
Watching the various revolutions progress, or not progress, or seem to not progress and then suddenly become “unstoppable,” I’ve come to a couple conclusions. Not about the revolutions – because I frankly have no expertise in those areas, and would not presume to speak for people putting their and their families’ lives on the line in hopes of a better tomorrow – but about our reaction to them.
One, first and foremost, is that we have the attention span of an ADHD toddler. If the revolution isn’t finished withing a couple of months, it’s a “failure.” I contemplate, bemusedly, every revolution that’s ever succeeded in supplanting a despotic regime: how many were over and done and won in 8 weeks? None. Even the ones that seem quick, like the People Power revolution in the Philippines, took a few years to build to the Marcos’ abrupt departure.
I don’t know where this huge impatience for revolutions to follow an arc more suited to a weekly TV show came from. I mean, we do know that real life doesn’t conform to network sweep schedules, right?
The other conclusion I’ve come to is that Conventional Wisdom is always wrong. Always. CW first held that we “had” to get involved in the Libyan uprising and it would be a major betrayal of our own principles if we did not; then, once we were involved, CW held that Obama was a pu**y-whipped idiot for getting involved in a civil war just as “our side” was about to lose; now that the shoe seems to have switched feet yet again, we’re hearing how the Libyan Strategy is a vindication of the Aghanistan Strategy.
It’s not only that each nugget of CW is facile, it’s that each nugget of CW insists we make believe the previous CW was not the diametric opposite of the current CW. The news coverage and commentary (on TV and on-line) has been an awful lot like color commentary of professional sports, when the team on top is lauded as having brilliant coaches and players and playbook – until the other team takes the lead, at which point that team is the one with the brilliant coaches and players and playbook – until the lead changes yet again, as does the acclaim.
It’s amusing when the CW Switcheroo is applied to sports. It’s kind of maddening when it’s applied to events played for mortal stakes.
Omnes Omnibus
@Constance: It wasn’t a fuck-up. We just wanted to make sure of what you had in mind so that conversation could proceed apace.
CaseyL
I have a comment in moderation,and I don’t know why. I thought it was because I used the word “P U S S Y” so I rewrote it as “pu**y,” but that didn’t work.
FYFWP.
With a rusty saw.
Sideways.
Ian
@bob h:
Wait, what were we doing the past six months? dropping candy?
Ian
@Samara Morgan:
Don’t speak too soon. We do not yet know how this will end up
Mnemosyne
@John Puma:
So your argument is that the US government and transnational oil companies should have given in and paid Qadaffi’s fine because refusing to pay his fine for killing 270 people was merely them protecting their profits?
That’s quite the black and white world you live in there, son.
JPL
BBC has a photo of Gaddafi goons on the grounds of the hotel. This is not good news for McCain.
John Puma
@Sheriff’s63 and Samara64:
Excuse me. I misread a secondary summary that referred to this interview with the new Sec of Perpetual War: “Panetta: Iraq has agreed to negotiate extended U.S. presence” (http://tinyurl.com/3pqo6gp)
The decision has not been made but, just the same, I’ll believe our total combat withdrawal when I see it.
Note what Iraq must do, presumably to our satisfaction, in 4 months:
“begin negotiating internally what type of U.S. training force they would like, begin a process to select a defense minister, craft a new Status of Forces Agreement and increase operations against Iranian-backed militants.” Of course, a lot can happen “on the ground” in that time.
We’ll still have the world’s largest embassy there (i.e. Langley East) AND Panetta controls the military. YOU folks tell me the prognosis for the State Department’s “private contractors.”
I do agree that Sadr will find and kill any combat troops left behind that the government “forgets” to tell US about.
Yutsano
@John Puma:
LOLwut? Civics lesson on aisle one please!
John Puma
@Mnemosyne: I didn’t say what we should have done but I DID say that our chronic, self-aggrandizing publicized motives for international mass murder are pure lies.
You may drop the insulting form of address.
Mnemosyne
@John Puma:
You said that refusing to pay Qaddafi’s terrorism fine was merely an attempt to protect oil company profits and not, say, the US government and transnational oil companies balking at the idea of letting Qaddafi get away with murder scott-free, so why exactly am I supposed to agree with your hyperbolic, black-and-white pronouncements on any subject?
When you have a childish view of the world (not paying Qaddafi’s fine for murdering 270 people can only be an attempt to protect oil company profits and nothing else), you should expect to be addressed as a child. When you adopt an adult view of the world (like perhaps the US and transnational oil companies didn’t want to reward Qaddafi for those murders), then you can expect to be addressed as an adult.
ETA: Also, too, it’s a bit silly to look at a cable from two years ago and decide that it’s the smoking gun for the current invasion of Libya.
Alex S.
Skimming through the news… this is going to end tonight or tomorrow. Saif al-Islam is probably going to die or get captured within 2 hrs.
John Puma
@Mnemosyne: You continue to taunt: “… why exactly am I supposed to agree with your hyperbolic, black-and-white pronouncements on any subject?”
I never suggested you needed to agree with anything I said, say or will say. I didn’t know you existed until you appeared out of the electronic woodwork like some insecure, busted Exxon VP.
It will suggest that it is not the adult behavior of which you purport to to be the paragon, however, to ridicule those with whom you do not agree.
Alex S.
If I had to guess I’d say that Gaddafi is in Sirte, his place of birth. It’s where the pro-Gaddafi sentiment is strongest. And if necessary, he could escape to Niger.
Bob
Wow, when does Obama get some credit here? Yeah, I know caveats galore still remain, but how about some credit for making a quick decision to save the rebels, preventing a massacre, getting support from NATO, keeping the operation in large measure controlled, staying the course, and helping to guide it – and fairly quickly – to a satisfactory ending of the first stage – removing Q. and getting the rebels in charge of the whole country. It ain’t over yet, and the aftermath is yet to be written, but it shapes up to be a satisfying win for Obama (and for the Libyans of course). When Q. is gone and the fighting stops, I hope Obama comes out for a speech to take some credit himself. No one in the media is going to give him any without prompting, I’m afraid.
Comrade Mary
@Jewish Steel: Fuck non, il est un tête-careé, pas un Canadien. Hostie!
CaseyL
@Bob: I’m perfectly willing to give the President credit. He plays the very long game, which absolutely no one else does (neither in politics nor in blog/commentary).
CaseyL
PS – I’m following the news – as much as one can, anyway –
mostly by following #libya on twitter and watching Skynews on-line.
Samara Morgan
@John Puma:
hahaha
true dat, and we cant keep enough troops there to guard it. we will have to hire contractors to guard it.
that is part of the fight going on in the Iraqi government right now– there is no way Xe is going get diplomatic immunity.
also to, we have to give the three largest airbases every built on foreign soil to the Iraqis when they plant a boot in America’s big fat WHITE judeoxian ass in december.
the reason (obvious to non-retards) is that is America has zero influence in Iraq, and then Qom and Karbala will become One in the New Virtual Shi’ia Caliphate.
That is what the Saud princes are wetting their pants over.
The Shi’ia (majority population in KSA) want to bring the Arab Spring to Mecca and Medina.
Samara Morgan
@Alex S.: Chad will take him. hes been feathering his nest there for a while.
Mnemosyne
@John Puma:
So you continue with your assertion that the only reason the US participated in the attack on Libya was that paying Qaddafi’s fine for murdering 270 people would have cut into oil industry profits? No other possible explanation for the refusal to pay the fine except that it cut into profits?
I know you love to divide the world into heroes and villains like a kid playing with his Batman action figures, but it doesn’t actually work that way. Qaddafi is not a heroic figure for trying to get evil oil companies to reimburse him after murdering 270 people.
(Edited to fix grammar)
Samara Morgan
@John Puma:
He’s not just going to kill them…..hes going to drag their mutilated bodies through the streets of Baghdad on al-Jazeera english live.
Yutsano
@CaseyL: Long games are boooooring. And hard to sell in our ADD culture. So if it’s not happening NOW NOW NOW!! ONE! it might as well not count to the Village.
Samara Morgan
@Ian: i know how its gunna end.
and i been saying it for a month at least.
Alex S.
@Samara Morgan:
Could also be, but isn’t there still lingering resentment from the war? Just asking, I have no idea.
JPL
according to bbc
Dazedandconfused
I see it’s time for this again…
http://www.collegehumor.com/video/6465342/twin-baby-talk-translated
aisce
war’s over. so that’s pretty cool. i can only hope the celebrations will not be short lived, and the liberal youths aren’t immediately marginalized like they were in libya’s neighbor to the east.
only downside to this new stepping stone on the path to universal freedom and flourishing of every individual on earth? having to read comments like this for the next week:
obama obama obama obama obama obama…oh, and the libyans too, i guess. but only in parentheses. lulzy.
Maude
@JPL:
I hope Q isn’t far behind.
arguingwithsignposts
Baghdad Bob 2.0 is on Sky TV right now. Live stream.
licensed to kill time
@arguingwithsignposts: “There are no tanks at the airport!”
Yutsano
@arguingwithsignposts: Oh wow. The worst part is he sounds like he believes his bullshit.
Bob
@aisce: yeah you go ahead.
John Puma
@Mnemosyne: I assert that if YOU think my opinion is false then YOU offer your serious, complexed, nuanced adult explanation.
If you do, please clarify if the murders you mentioned @ 146: “the US government and transnational oil companies balking at the idea of letting Qaddafi get away with murder scott-free” are the Lockerbie murders or others.
I never said Qaddafi is a heroic figure. At 50 I called him a tyrant, one among many, most of whom are never touched if they play the “feed the exceptional American consumer” game
Anxiuosly awaiting to hear how the world actually works.
aisce
@ bob
go ahead and do what?
have to listen to partisans in america and britain and france reclaim obama’s war and cameron’s war and sarkozy’s war? yes, like i said, i expect a great deal of it.
but after six months of fighting, tens of thousands martyred and dead, hundreds of thousands temporarily displaced, for anybody to put the libyans second in their own civil war, yeah, i might turn to mockery every now and then.
as i said on this very blog when nato made the proper decision to intervene, there will come a day when obama boulevard runs along sarkozy square in benghazi. they should be very satisfied with their leadership on the international stage tonight. but it was the libyans’ war, dude. it’s their freaking country. they fought and bled and died for it.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@aisce:
This Obot very much agrees.
Let’s leave the President out of this, this is the Libyans’ show.
licensed to kill time
Chyron on CNN Int’l: ‘Rebel official says Ghaddafi’s son Saif has been captured’.
Omnes Omnibus
@aisce:
@The Sheriff’s A Ni-: No disagreement from me either. The US and NATO were bit players here.
kd bart
I expect Sarah Palin’s bus to show up in Tripoli any moment now.
JPL
@kd bart: lol she actually might blame gloria steinem for the overthrow.. it’s hard to tell..
boss bitch
Yes they were and Obama made that point pretty clear from the start. However, the narrative since this started was that this was Obama’s (7th) War and ZOMG he’s an Imperialist Dictator out for oil and that it was going to last as long as Iraq etc. etc. Now this day has arrived and its ‘well Obama had very little to do with this’ – ???
I think this is what some people are seeing.
Omnes Omnibus
@boss bitch: That narrative was wrong, but it does not make sense to counter it with another false one. FWIW I was not one of those putting forth that narrative.
aisce
@ omnes omnibus
nah, nato was genuinely crucial. no knocking them. they’re just subordinate to the fighters on the ground.
in a war in which one side has airpower and one side doesn’t, who do you think is gonna win? nato took out nearly all of gaddafi’s heavy armor, obliterated his ability to conduct open desert warfare, they ground him down to a little nub from above, and the freedom fighters systematically picked through the remains, liberating their cities one by one. the western rebels turned out to be quite the urban insurgent fighters, but they absolutely needed nato’s help to make this revolution a successful one.
i just don’t want to see western leaders elevated above the libyan people. it’ll be all too easy to do.
@ boss bitch
you know where glenn greenwald’s site is. or, at least wait for cole to actually post himself…
Jenny
@aisce:
Congratulations to President Obama on the liberation of Libya.
He prevented a 2nd Rwanda like Holocaust in Benghazi and then he deposed a tyrant without a single US casualty.
It’s reminiscent of Theodore Roosevelt’s action in Morocco in 1904.
They’re singing the national anthem in the streets of Tripoli and chanting Obama Akbar.
http://feb17.info/media/video-…..e-streets/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Yeesh. CNN is the only TV station I’ve got giving news. MSNBC is running “Caught on Tape”, and my local nets are showing infomercials and a documentary on NASCAR
Omnes Omnibus
@aisce: Bit players can be crucial. On another thread, I made the analogy to the help the French provided to the Colonies during the American Revolution. I think it holds. FWIW I also think NATO forces provided comparatively less help than the French had.
licensed to kill time
CNN Int’l has been all Libya, all day practically. Now they are reporting BOTH Ghaddafi’s sons arrested by rebel forces.
It’s only a matter of time for Ghaddafi, he’s toast.
Video of people dancing in the streets, waving flags and shouting “We are coming for you, frizz-head”.
Jenny
It’s the US who took out his armor, his air force, his air strips, who blocked his communications, who imposed sanctions, who provided arms, ammo, and training. It was US predator drones providing air cover and US special forces who lit up targets for US guided missiles. It was the US who provided tankers and satellites and signals intercepts. It’s the US who got the Arab League to sign on and the China and Russia to sign off at the UN.
Bottom line. If Ghaddafi had won, Obama would have taken the blame. So now that he lost, only the opposite is right.
After all, during the past five months how often have critics (from all sides) said, “Obama has gotten the US into another war” — well, you can’t have it both ways, you can’t say “he started this” and then say “he had nothing to do with it”.
Davis X. Machina
When tyrants tremble, sick with fear,
And hear their death-knell ringing,
When friends rejoice both far and near,
How can I keep from singing?
AxelFoley
@boss bitch:
Exactly. And if this had all failed, they’d be quick to give Obama ownership of everything.
Yutsano
Well for what it’s worth the New York Dawg ain’t happy. Mostly because he really really REALLY wanted to get his boots into Tripoli and get Qaddafi himself. I didn’t bother to bring up he’s not in a combat MOS.
aisce
@ jenny
if you were being genuine in this line of thinking, and not partisan, you would give greatest kudos to the french and sarkozy. bottom line, as you say.
Stillwater
@Jenny: Well, apparently no one likes Obama. He’s either entirely to blame when bad things happen, or an insignificant bit player when good things happen.
The guy just can’t get a break.
licensed to kill time
All the gov’t minders and security guys have melted away from the hotel that Matthew Chance and other journalists are staying at in Tripoli; they expect rebel forces to arrive soon.
They have all gathered together on one floor and draped sheets with TV written in big letters over stair rails, etc. They’re all in flak jackets and helmets and look rather nervous.
Omnes Omnibus
@Stillwater: FFS, I think Obama actually handled this perfectly. It was frickin’ Goldilocksian.*
*If this was snark and my detector is off, sorry.
Jenny
@aisce: For what? For letting the US do the heavy lifting? The French have aircraft carriers and cruise missiles, but they didn’t use them. It was Obama who did.
It was US cruise missiles and US satellite guidance that flattened these jet bombers.
licensed to kill time
Matthew Chance is still on live TV on CNN Int’l, looking over his shoulder constantly…there is a gunman shouting downstairs about the tv cameras being on. You can hear him shouting…
I gotta say, this is rather compelling coverage.
Kane
This is about Libya, not about us. Still, I’m getting a kick out of the right-wing panic that this might look good for Obama.
Jenny
@Stillwater:
Just like DADT. When DADT was repealed everyone tried to deny him credit, yet before it was repealed, everyone was screaming at him.
Consistency is not a blog value.
Stillwater
@Omnes Omnibus: No snark. I just think Jenny’s point is a very good one. If this whole Libyan Adventure turned to shit, people would blame one guy, and one guy only: Obama. Now that (it looks like) it’s going well, he’s just a bit player whose role was never really that significant.
You don’t find that double standard interesting?
Omnes Omnibus
@Jenny: You might want to read through this chronology.
aisce
@ jenny
that was six months ago. it’s been a european dominated effort since then. that was the entire point of the president’s successful plan.
plus, it was the french who were the first and primary agitators on the un security council for military engagement. that’s simple fact.
so, basically, we’re already at the point here where both the libyans and the europeans are getting whitewashed out of their own war, huh?
Mnemosyne
@John Puma:
The serious, complex, nuanced adult explanation is that NATO countries (especially France and Italy) didn’t want to risk their access to Libyan oil being cut off by a revolution that could easily turn anti-West, so they decided to intervene on the side of the revolutionaries to maintain that access. Europe and the US have been trying to get rid of Qaddafi since at least the mid-80s, so this uprising was a perfect excuse to intervene.
I’m still not getting how “paying Qaddafi’s Lockerbie fine would have cut into oil company profits!” is the adult, complex, nuanced explanation for the war, but maybe you can explain it further so we really understand how complex it is.
As the Lockerbie murders are the ones for which Qaddafi was levied the $1.5 billion fine in question, that’s the money that you said that the US government and oil companies refused to pay solely because it cut into oil company profits. Were you under the impression that the $1.5 billion fine that Quaddafi wanted the US and the oil companies to pay on his behalf was for something other than Lockerbie? Because it said it was for Lockerbie right in your post:
But, please, continue explaining to us that the only reason NATO forces intervened in Libya was because paying Qaddafi’s Lockerbie fine would have cut into oil company profits. Clearly it’s the most adult and nuanced explanation available.
Kane
The GOP don’t like it
Rockin the Casbah, Rock the Casbah!
The Tea Party don’t like it
Rockin the Casbah, Rock the Casbah!
Sorry. Couldn’t resist.
Omnes Omnibus
@Stillwater:
I think the US was not a lead player in the action. As a result, I don’t think that the US or Obama should get the lion’s share of the credit. Look, I approved of the US involvement and the degree of US involvement. If it had gone bad, I would still argue that it had been the right thing to do. Nevertheless, the US and the rest of NATO were there in a supporting role. I know that air support is important, but wars are won on the ground. In this case, the ground fight was, and is, being done by Libyans.
licensed to kill time
A resident of Benghazi being interviewed on TV has just said they have heard Ghaddafi himself has been captured on the way to Tunisia.
The resident is director of media something for the opposition forces…
Unconfirmed, but still!
Kane
@Omnes Omnibus:
That may very well be true. However, we all know that the U.S. media is incredibly lazy, and after giving lip service on what this news means for Libya, their citizens, and the region, the bulk of the media focus will be whether Obama policy was right or wrong, whether Obama is now vindicated and whether his detractors were right or wrong.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
I think I have to (somewhat) agree with Stillwater and Jenny, since their point seems to be that the same people who insisted at the beginning that Obama secretly orchestrated the entire invasion from behind the scenes using Sarkozy as his puppet are busily backpedaling now that it seems to have (on some level) succeeded and are insisting that Obama never had anything much to do with it anyway.
Personally, I had the impression from the beginning that the US was dragged into it fairly reluctantly and let the other NATO members make most of the decisions, so I have no problem giving Obama credit for keeping us out of it as much as possible and letting the French take the lead while we provided support. It’s the manic swing from “This is Obama’s illegal invasion!” to “Obama didn’t do a thing to help win it!” that’s giving me whiplash.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kane: The policy was right and it worked. That does not negate my point, but fine. Fuck it! America! Fuck, yeah!
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: I think it is neither factually accurate nor wise for the US or Obama to get a large amount of credit here. We, as a nation, have a reputation to rebuild, and allowing others, specifically those who truly deserve it, to receive any accolades here sure won’t hurt in that regard.
SiubhanDuinne
@CaseyL: You mentioned the thing one wears on one’s foot.
Samara Morgan
@Jenny: yup jenny…do you know WHY?
because we were THERE.
the carriers were there, the tomahawks were there, and the drones were close.
heard of any drone strikes in waziristan lately?
Samara Morgan
@Alex S.:
resentment from who?
America is on the side of the islamists and the students for once.
Stillwater
@Mnemosyne: so I have no problem giving Obama credit for keeping us out of it as much as possible
Me too. I give him lots of credit both for what in fact happened, as well as for preventing what easily might have happened.
Mnemosyne
@Omnes Omnibus:
I don’t think that the US or Obama deserves a large amount of credit, but can we at least avoid letting things slide into “the rebels foiled Obama’s evil plan to conquer Libya”?
Credit where credit is due: the US provided support services that helped the NATO intervention that allowed the Libyan rebels to succeed. I don’t see any reason to pump the US’s assistance up beyond that, but I also don’t see any reason to totally downplay it and pretend it made zero difference, either. But, then, I make my living as an assistant/secretary, so I’m a bit sensitive to people trying to cut me off from all credit when my department or boss succeeds.
Omnes Omnibus
@Mnemosyne: I don’t think that I have suggested that the US played no part. I just am trying to stomp on the incipient triumphalism I am seeing from people like Jenny.
Breaking News
I do not think the United States and Obama deserves much credit, but we can at least avoid letting things go in the “insurgents thwarted evil plan of Obama in the conquest of Libya?”
Credit where credit is due: the United States has provided support services that contributed to the NATO intervention that allowed the rebels to Libya to succeed. I see no reason to pump U.S. aid up out of it, but I see no reason to minimize all this and pretend it did not matter either. But since I saw as an assistant secretary / so I’m a little sensitive to people trying to cut me any credit when my department or boss succeed.
John Puma
@Mnemosyne:
“How would companies paying $1.5 billion for Qadaffi’s terrorism fine experience cuts to their profits”?
Goodness, you are as nuanced as the teabagger debt ceiling hysterics. Money comes in and money goes out. The more money that goes out the less remains in, therefore profit, which is derived from the money that remains in, must be less. If $1.5 billion more goes out then, there is $1.5 billion less to go towards profit. Was that SO difficult? You might want to copy and paste it somewhere for easy reference.
I hope YOU understand it now. I haven’t noticed anyone else joining in on this discussion so you flatter yourself with the “so WE understand” bit.
I am well aware of the murders for which the fine was levied. (But I was very adult of you to get in yet another gratuitous swipe.) I wanted to make sure you weren’t referring to the “Q’s murdering of his own people” justification that we got at the beginning of this “intervention,” so reminiscent of the same refrain for Iraq. See the opening line of my original post @50. (I don’t suppose we’ve ever sold arms, or worse, to Q! No, impossible! He’s a consensus tyrant.)
So, now that we’ve cleared that up, are you claiming that the oil companies refused to pay Q’s demand NOT because they don’t understand basic accounting, either, but because they wanted to protest the Lockerbie murders? Now that IS some adult humor.
You say: “NATO countries (especially France and Italy) didn’t want to risk their access to Libyan oil.” Well there’s a serious, complex, nuanced, adult explanation that has NOTHING to do with my thesis of ongoing state murder to prop up those proud corporate bastions of capitalism. Thanks. QED.
I would like to see your serious, complex, nuanced, adult analysis of Obama’s executive order of 25 Feb 2011: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2011/02/25/executive-order-libya
Finally, my original comment @50 said: “A wikileaks cable explains the CATALYST for our involvement.” ( I did not mention NATO forces, as you claim.)
When you find a definition of “catalyst” that equates with “the sole reason” (your recurring rant), WE would certainly be interested in seeing it.
As a matter of fact, unless and until you do present evidence for that particular meaning for “catalyst,” any further, baseless hectoring from you on this topic, no matter how adult, will be ignored.
Edward Brue
@Mnemosyne: i totally agree to Mnemosyne, in real life i could apply this on mine since the lower ranked personnel suffers from low salary while higher ranked that does nothing gets the best benefits
Mnemosyne
@John Puma:
So therefore the only possible reason the oil companies would not reimburse Gaddafi for his murder of 270 people was because of the bottom line?
Yes, clearly I’m the one who has a simplistic, black-and-white view of the world where the US government and oil companies are pure evil and wouldn’t balk for a second at paying Gaddafi’s blood money as long as it didn’t impinge on profits. Glad we cleared that up for everyone.
Your thesis was that the only reason we went into Libya was because oil companies didn’t want to pay Gaddafi’s $1.5 billion in fines. Are you now acknowledging that maybe it wasn’t quite as simplistic as you first tried to claim? Are you backing down from your initial claim that the only reason that NATO intervened in Libya is because oil companies didn’t want to pay Gaddafi’s $1.5 billion out of their profits and all of the other events of the following two years were secondary?
I know you can move those goalposts faster if you just pull a little harder on them.
Looks like a pretty standard announcement of economic sanctions against Libya. I’m guessing you think that economic sanctions are also a horrible, evil tool of capitalism since they do things like prevent Gaddafi’s children from escaping Libya with money from the country’s treasury so they can live in luxury. If the children of a dictator can’t take the Libyan people’s money to another country and live like kings, what’s the point of being a dictator, amirite?
Here you are:
FYI, definition 3 is the one you should be concentrating on, since you seem to be confused by it.
WaterGirl
President Obama’s statement on Libya:
Daddy Warbucks
@John Puma: It is a great day for Zionist Imperialism. Now, at long last, western oligarchs can bathe in the profits of Lybian oil! It’ll be an oil orgy! Hail Satan!