Dave Weigel at Slate catches “The End of White Southern Democrats in the House“:
Georgia Republicans, who control every piece of the redistricting process, have drawn up a plan that would take black Democrats out of Rep. John Barrow’s district. If it passes, Georgia — which gave John McCain a 52-47 victory margin in 2008 — would have 10 lean-Republican districts and four strong Democratic districts. Which Democrats would survive? Why, that would be Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, John Lewis, and David Scott [all African-American]…
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I see a pattern. Both Georgia and North Carolina were fairly evenly divided in the 2008 presidential election — they have large, heavily Democratic black populations, and relatively large white populations who are still open to voting for Democrats. But between them, if the new district maps elect the people they’re supposed to, the South’s megastates will send 20 Republicans, six black Democrats, and one white Democrat to the House. The effect outside the South: A smaller, more liberal Democratic conference.
I guess the Teahadists love their “fewer, but purer” mantra so much they’re eager to force Democrats to embrace it as well (/snark). Elbridge Gerry‘s bastard offspring are going to be very, very busy loading the political dice over the next few months…
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
“relatively large white populations who are still open to voting for Democrats. ”
Say what? Maybe in Athens and Atlanta.
Comrade Kevin
California’s redistricting plan looks like it’s going to reduce the number of Republicans in both the state legislature, and Congress. In fact, it may make it so the Dems have that 2/3 majority that would enable them to ignore the GOP for budget and tax purposes.
cleek
elections, consequences. bah.
as long as i have my purity, it’s all good wit me.
Disgruntled Lurker
But between them, if the new district maps elect the people they’re supposed to, the South’s megastates will send 20 Republicans, six black Democrats, and one white Democrat to the House.
Is this really the worst possible outcome?
KG
@Comrade Kevin: I figured it was a good thing here in California when my congresscritter (the ever corrupt Gary Miller) threatened to sue over the loss of his insanely gerrymandered district into a more competitive district (which is saying a lot in Orange County)
Roger Moore
@Comrade Kevin:
Assuming it gets past the inevitable legal challenges and ballot initiatives. The Republicans aren’t going to give up on their last shred of statewide power without a fight.
It’s only taxes now. Remember that we finally managed to undo the 2/3 budget requirement, which is why the legislature was able to pass a budget on time for a change. It’s a lousy, austerity budget because of the 2/3 requirement for raising taxes, but at least it got done on time and without having to meet crazy Republican demands that will make future budgets more difficult.
KG
@Roger Moore: considering it passed 61-32 the last time it was on the ballot, I doubt a ballot initiative will be much of a challenge. As for legal challenges, I’m not sure that “less representative districts are actually more representative” is a winning argument.
PeakVT
@Disgruntled Lurker: For the country? Pretty much.
Comrade Kevin
Allan West for Congress ad on the left side, LOL. Does the campaign get billed every time someone clicks on it?
SiubhanDuinne
Heh. There’s a big ad for Allan West up right now.
El Cid
@Raven (formerly stuckinred):
Oddly enough, there are quite a few people who live in Atlanta.
dww44
@Raven (formerly stuckinred): Oh, I’m not so sure about Athens being a Democratic stronghold. Aren’t you represented by Paul Broun, one of the most extreme, if not the most extreme Reps there is?
My city in the middle just got its voting strength totally diluted by carving out the Northern part to the newly elected Tea Party guy from the South, which includes me, unfortunately., The east, South, and west of the city were given to Bishop.
I hate partisan redistricting. There oughta be a law agin it! Wow, losing in 2010 sucks, doesn’t it!
dww44
@Disgruntled Lurker: I happen to think that anytime districts are made safe and even increases the strength for the majority party, that this is the worst outcome. This is not good for Democrats, not good for democracy, and not good for us voting citizens. Our votes, mine included, have been marginalized even further.
James E. Powell
@Comrade Kevin:
If new districts give the Democrats a 2/3 majority in both houses, it will create a California breed of blue dogs who will vote with the Republicans on every economic issue, but certainly on tax issues.
benintn
Don’t worry, there’s always Steve Cohen.
hamletta
@benintn: God bless that man. If for nothing else, his crusade to bring good draft beer to this state.
Ian
I feel deeply sorry for our southern brethren trapped down there. I say we should offer prisoner exchange, trade out rethugs from the Pacific states and offer the AA population their homes in OC and San Diego.
On a more realistic note, I think that the D party and the left blogosphere need to rembrace the big tent strategy of Howard Dean. The anger at the blue dog and conservadems may have been what cost us so many seats in the south. The national party apparatus and liberal activists were (and still are) angry at the lack of support at key votes, but at the end of the day the votes for Speaker of the House matter even more. This may be evidenced by the continued hatred of Harold Ford and Ben Nelson. While we would only have gotten their vote 50percent of the time, it is still better than enabling an obstructionist agenda that puts politics above country.
The exception I will make to the big tent rule is Joe Lieberman. When you refuse to support you parties presidential candidate and it’s signature agenda item, you can go F*** yourself.
Spaghetti Lee
@dww44:
Athens used to be John Barrow’s territory, it was redistricted into Paul Broun’s district last round.
Spaghetti Lee
Southern Strategy, as if I need to mention it. Associate the Democratic Party with Those People, and ain’t no decent Southern white folk gonna vote Democrat then. On the plus side, however, the suburbs of the big northern cities are more competitive than they’ve ever been. I’m from Illinois, and Democrats are totally in charge of the RDing there. The map I’ve seen leaves Peter Roskam as the only Republican in a safe district in the collar counties. That would have been unthinkable even 15-20 years ago: it was safe Republican all the way up to the border of Cook County, and a little farther than that.
And on principle, I agree with Ian @17. If a blue dog is the only Democrat that could conceivably win in a conservative district, then run the damn blue dog. What, you think the teabag-loyalist Republican will be better?
dww44
@Ian: Thanks for the post. but, I’ve not believed that our losses in 2010 were reflective of Dems staying home, albeit a lot of first time AA voters in 2008 didn’t come back in 2010. There was no GOTV Dem effort here. The Republicans, energized by the Tea Party and an incoherent rage against the new President, got out their vote. I remember a really conservative friend, who works at a local Military base and herself not Southern, said to me months ahead of the election, “you know we are really going to win”. And, they did.
P.S. I endorse your view on Lieberman.
sherifffruitfly
I blame Obama.
And clearly we need to yell at black folks because they always “inject race into the conversation”. Gosh they’re so reverseracist-y.
buckyblue
They need to get rid of the districts and have state wide voting for the House and then give proportional seats. Congresscritters don’t represent their districts interests anyway, except for the occasional pork.
Martin
No way DOJ approves this, and Georgia can’t redistrict without DOJ signing off.
Phil Perspective
@Spaghetti Lee: You don’t know who can win unless you try. Blue Dogs aren’t Democrats. They are corporate whores, every last one of them.
Spaghetti Lee
@Phil Perspective:
You think the average blue dog is worse than the average Republican? What would make you think that?
Thing about political organizations is that they tend to have limited resources in terms of time, money, and people. I’d love to see diehard liberals representing every district in America, but that’s not going to happen. So what exactly is so sinister about running someone who is less liberal but has more of a chance to win? We’re at the point where practically any Democrat is preferable to any Republican.
Martin
@Spaghetti Lee:
Not the point. Even if the Democrat is worse, having Democratic control is vastly more important. Even if that Democrat refuses to break a Republican filibuster, it’s less damaging than forcing the Dems to filibuster everything from the minority. That assumes that you can avoid getting emo over not getting 90% top marginal tax rates with a majority, though.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@Spaghetti Lee: Barrow was never a rep from Athens, he was on the city council and moved to Savannah to run for congress.
Paul in KY
This has been going on for awhile. Get a district the Democrat will win 85 – 15 by removing all black precincts from any surrounding suburban districts.
They have probably done exhaustive studies on why certain candidates lost & saw that in many cases it was the heavily Democratic voting of blacks who did him/her in.
So this is how to ‘fix’ it.