Nate Silver has a good summary of what today’s polling numbers mean for the Republican primary. His take is that national numbers don’t mean much, what matters is New Hampshire and Iowa. By his calculation if much of the Cain Gang (Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich) isn’t in it to win it when the New Hampshire primary rolls around, then Perry might make things close there.
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I’ve read that Mittens campaign has been playing a low-key non-confrontational style against the other GOP candidates. I guess some type of see I’m more reasonable than the crazies.
What I wonder is if thx to these recent poll numbers, doesn’t Mittens have to “fight” back to stave off Perry’s rise? With Bachmann he could just ignore the crazy, but with Perry’s what seems to be across the board higher poll numbers he’s bleeding even alleged “moderates” to Perry. If Mittens wants to win this nom, then he’s gonna have to put on some fighting gloves.
And I don’t know about anyone else, but I just don’t see any type of fighter in Romney. Unless ya’ll Mass peeps know something I don’t know.
The GOP power base is in the south, so I disagree that Iowa and NH are as key, as compared to dems. And Nate leaves out some crucial wingnut purity issues concerning Romney, and his RINO weak spots, which are pretty many and glaring ones. Weak spots that Perry and other more elemental grade wingers, like Bachmann will be highlighting in their debates. I think Perry will clean up in South Carolina, and then he is off to the races with the nomination, unless his big mouth, or some other mega scandal pops out to sink him.
Of the Cain Gang, I could see Gingrich leaving after Iowa (“Newt, you are the weakest link; buh-bye”) and perhaps the Herminator; all the others aren’t going anywhere (Bachmann might if she were lose badly in Iowa, but she isn’t getting embarassed in Iowa).
Iowa goes Bachmann, Palin, or Perry.
Romney takes New Hampshire.
South Carolina should be a war.
Nothing of substance to add, but I love the title. One of my favorite albums.
Agree with Evap. One of the best Thompson songs ever. That whole album is superb.
And the only news in NH is if he doesn’t.
ETA: He, Romney, doesn’t win.
Last I hreard Perry was sopendinh quite a few hours in NH. I wouldn’t assume it’s a lock for Willard just yet, especially since there’s a big teabilly component there thanks to the Free State Project. Mittens can’t win on Dartmouth alone.
I read somewhere that there are something like three debates in September. Perry doesn’t like to do debates. He avoided them like the plague against Bill White. And when he felt threatened by Debra Medina, Glenn Beck and his pal Pat Grey did a number on her to discredit her.
Perry can pull that shit in Texas and survive, but I can’t see him doing the same on the national level.
@Evap: @gbear: Agreed. Thompson FTW.
Part of me really hopes Sarah Palin makes a very late entry into the race, just to shake things up.
NYT style point: They say Mr Romney and Mr Perry, but why Mrs Bachmann and Ms Palin? They must have some arcane rules about the use of Ms, Mrs, and Miss. Ms was supposed to make that issue go away.
The debates may be the first time most voters get to see his Dubya 2.0 impression. Not sure that’s going to help his poll numbers.
Yeah, if Romney doesn’t win NH, he’s fucked.
As much as I hate to admit it, Mittens probably has the right strategy. Let Perry spend a couple more months saying stupid shit and his support will start dropping.
Then he probably shouldn’t run for prez. I have been curious, though, if Queen Sarah deigns to run, if she would try to skip a bunch of the debates.
This is all old, outdated news. Now that Michelle Bachmann has found the cheap gas fairies, she’s guaranteed to win.
J. Michael Neal
@Yutsano: No, but he can win on the Manchester/Derry area, which is basically the low tax Special Economic Zone of Boston. That’s Romney’s stronghold in New Hampshire, and I have a very hard time not seeing it deliver for him.
That said, I also expect Perry to clean up in Iowa. If Bachmann finishes better than fourth, I’ll be surprised. Perry wins; Romney finishes second by carrying the Not-Quite-As-Crazy vote; Paul comes in a very distant third with his own special band of lunatics. Michele fights it out with the other ankle biters, coming out on top of that particular Death Duel of Lame.
All of the first few primary states have an obvious winner, and won’t settle anything since they can be discounted. Perry wins in Iowa and South Carolina; Mittens in New Hampshire and Nevada. The race will be decided by what comes after that, and I’d put money on the Not-Mitt candidate beating Mitt.
Why is Bachmann a Mrs and Palin a Ms? Also, too, I’ve always hated Mrs. It looks like Misters.
Are southern R’s inclined to support the MA Miracle Romney? or any other non-southerner? I woudn’t say there would be a lot of support for Perry just because he’s from Texas, but I would think there would be a lot of regional bias against them northerners.
@Mark S.: I wouldn’t be surprised if some “emergency” in Texas keeps Perry from the September debates. As for Palin skipping them, she can simply stay out of the race until this bunch has passed.
After what went on with Perry last election, I can’t see him getting on a stage with other people to debate. He thinks he does better without doing it. Like I said, I don’t think that will fly for long.
Best guess, candidate preference; if so, each choice kinda tells a story, no?
I think immediately of “an island made of cocaine in a sea of turpentine”
Here’s a clip of Parry (from 9 months ago) pledging to serve out his term as governor and how being governor is superior to being president.
Dear god that’s dumb.
(from everyone’s favorite political site)
@Mark S., Violet:
If we were talking about anything other than a Republican primary electorate, what you say would be true. But running around the country saying crazy, wingnutty nonsense will not hurt Rick Perry (at least not with Republican voters). If a guy like Rubio feels emboldened enough to publicly declare that Social Security & Medicare have made us weaker (clearly evincing an utter lack of knowledge and comprehension of US history pre-1933), taking extreme rightwing positions or taking his Dubya 2.0 act on the road will not be his downfall. Indeed, I think Romney’s reluctance to hop on the Wingnut Express will be his downfall. I believe his decision to do so is simply because Mittens is not good at it (see his “hang” the misery index around Pres. Obama’s neck comment). He’s goofy, weird, plastic, and looks incredibly awkward when he’s interacting with human beings. At the same time, Perry will not hesitate to make Mittens “eat shit” by highlighting Mittens’ record as MA governor.
The kind of Republicans Romney needs to win don’t exist anymore (more or less); there simply aren’t enough of them to carry him over the finish line. He needs the hardcore conservative vote to be fractured well into primary season, IMO. If Perry can consolidate the conservative vote, obviously Mitt has a big hill to climb. That Perry has jumped out to a substantial lead over Mitt at the expense of the other ideologically similar candidates is not a good sign. Mitt’s support is soft; he doesn’t have the diehards, they don’t trust him, and they never will.
Some of these candidates we can stop talking about: Cain, Santorum, Gingrich are going nowhere. This race is down to Perry, Romney, and Bachmann, with Paul potentially having considerable leverage if he can stay in the game and collect delegates.
I guess we should not be regulating sewage since its basically another natural product that humans emit.
Palin is never going to actually run. Her whole gig is based on pretending that he might. She makes too much money doing that. She isn’t going to actually declare, and will never actually withdraw.
James E. Powell
Also too, if she learned anything in 2008, it’s that she does not like campaigning and is not very good at it. She is intellectually vapid, but she is not stupid.
You sure about that?
How in the hell did McCain get nominated in 2008? Has the Republican party changed that much? Something else to consider is that there will voters in the 2012 Republican primary that voted for a Dem last go around, cause there will not be any action on our side…. at least that’s the conventional wisdom.
I just don’t see why the “next in line” rule of republican primarys just gets written off so easy. Whats changed?
@J. Michael Neal:
I’d have to see if the old money tax haven folks are outdoing the crazy enough to pull Willard over the top. Or even see if Perry can woo some of them by basically saying Mittens can’t win. Perry is known as a great campaigner, and so far Willard seems to be fair to middling on that point. I guess we’ll see. I gots popcorn in any event.
The Kenyan usurper. The Tea Party is absolutely out of control with their fury that he is President, and they still have enough influence that they almost drove the economy off a cliff, oh, earlier this month. Time will tell if they can keep their rage stoked for another 8-12 months, but they’ve been pretty good at it so far.
Just my opinion, but I used to be a card-carrying journalist back in the day. Usual style (A.P. and also probably New York Times) would be to use “Ms.” unless the person specifically requested otherwise. Mrs. Bachmann, as the devoted Christian wife of Marcus, probably fits in that category.
The toxins emitted by E. Coli and Streptococcus (Toxic Shock Syndrome) are naturally occurring as well.
Then shouldn’t they refer to her as Beard Bachmann?
None of this means a darn thing. People are trying to turn polling into some weird concatenation of fortune telling and fantasy political football. It’s unfortunate that Nate, who seems to be a nice guy, is encouraging this abuse of statistics.
The news today offers a lesson. All of the speculation about iPad and iPhone release dates, about iOS 5 and cheaper iPhones and retina display devices has been rendered null and void by Steve Jobs’ announcement about stepping down as head of Apple.
The votes in the first of the GOP primaries, and reaction to those results, are far more important than any speculation about polling.
I understand that blogs abhor the vacuum of the absence of speculation, but still ….
@Steeplejack: Then wouldn’t she be Mrs. Marcus Bachman when appearing in public with him?
News from about 10 days ago reinforces that thought (i.e., the abuse of data to get bad information).
In Indianapolis, they KNEW where the rain was; they had the radar images. What they didn’t consider that the rain was producing a freak wind slightly closer than that weather front. From the cheap seats, it looks like the people in Indy were aiming for a Just-In-Time evacuation as opposed to simply having the good sense to see something bad was coming and take prudent precautions.
Polls this far out don’t mean anything. Even if they could come-up with a polling screen to capture a statistically valid sample of the 19 million, roughly people who voted in the last GOP primary … which they can’t. As further evidence: at this time, last time, Guiliani was polling at 38%, McCain was polling 12%.
Political journalists like to fill their required column inches with blather about polling. Saves them from having to know anything, about anything.
Villago Delenda Est
The lazy factor of today’s “journalist” cannot be underestimated. If they actually had to cogitate, they might sprain their brains and miss some Georgetown cocktail party.
This is astonishing. I mean, should be screamed from the rooftops astonishing:
Median white household net worth: $113K
Median black household net worth: $5K
Median latino household net worth: $6K
These are MEDIANS. So Gates/Buffett/etc aren’t affecting these at all. Half of white households are worth more than $113K, half are worth less. Half of all black households are worth less than $5K. This needs to be the new narrative on tax fairness, jobs, and so on.
I’m simply blown away by this. I never in a million years would have thought the disparity was even remotely that large.
L. Ron Obama
@Martin: Holy crap.
That’s not in the style book. But it is due to be updated.
Once true, although no one goes that far back any more. It used to be that a wife was, e.g., “Mrs. Marcus Bachmann,” and “Mrs. Michele Bachmann” would denote a widow. After “Ms.” became legit everything changed and got a bit fuzzy, but eventually we got to the current situation, where “Ms.” is the default unless the person in question specifically goes by “Mrs.”
Wow. That is, like, wow.
I don’t think that Republicans are going to view the first few primaries the way that they usually do. The key this time around seems to be attracting and energizing the wingnuts and the fundies. Bachmann can accomplish the first but I submit that Perry can do both. He’s also a more seasoned campaigner on a larger stage than a Congressional District. In any case, Criswell Predicts that the one who takes South Carolina will end up as the nominee.
OT, but this article has to be read to be believed.
Neocon Like Me: How I Spent A Year In Iraq Teaching With The Bush-Cheney Crazies
A reminder of how arrogant, stupid and incompetent neocons and right-wing trash are, and why they should never, ever be allowed to manage anything.
OT but I can’t stay up for the late night open thread. Came across this story on twitter today. http://tinyurl.com/4xuqt73
Basically, the post-earthquake cholera epidemic that’s been afflicting Hati most likely arrived from Nepal via relief workers. When it pours it pours.
@Martin: Yes, scream it from the rooftops. House Republicans will be startled to discover how lazy black people are. I mean you’d think they’d have the sense to save a little from welfare and selling drugs. # wastingyourtime
@September 19th: Troll? Snark? Poe’s Law? Who can tell nowadays?
@Martin: That needs to be a FP post on here, and on GOS, and everywhere.
That would explain a LOT. Like, nearly everything. About everything.
We’re already a third-world nation.
That is probably the inevitable result of taxing (and constantly talking about) income rather than wealth. You always hear about the 47% of the country that pay no income taxes. The problem is essentially that none of those people have any wealth to tax.
It goes without saying that there are plenty of whites stuck in the same boat as the poorer blacks and Hispanics, but the disparity is extremely pronounced when it is written up that way.
@Yutsano: All of the above, baby. You truly are wasting your time with the identity politics. Black people know they are getting screwed, and white people don’t care. It’s a bit like trying to get people to care about how bad off folks in the 3rd world are.
Just focus on how nuts Perry is and be glad that Mittens didn’t get the GOP nomination, and you just might get a 2nd Obama term.
Silver’s right on the numbers but wrong in his conclusion. The dynamics of GOP electoral politics at the Presidential level are now the domain of the light-bending realties of the SCOTUS’s Flanagist 5’s abhorrent Citizens United invention.
The complete inversion of resource definition caused by the Falanists calls into question the very notion of the entire history of the GOP’s primary process as having any bearing on Presidential level outcomes for that Party – and potentially for all of us.
To understand the inversion the Falangist 5 executed, consider the fundamental difference between the economics of scarcity against the economics of abundance. National politics had, from inception, been rooted in the former. Today, it is the latter paradigm that is not just dominant but is the operative mode of conducting the selection of the President (if not all office-holders). Under such a conditions, those fettered by scarcity are – axiomatically – systemically inviable.
@ant: who is to say that we can’t consider Perry as “next in line?” Just because Romney ran last time and lost? I’m not so sure. He succeeded Dubya as governor; he’s served 3 terms. I think the GOP electorate could very easily look at him as “next in line.”
You raise a good point: how did McCain get nominated. Of course, he did select queen wingnut as his running mate, and if we look at what has happened to McCain since he lost, I would say that, yes, the GOP has become even more conservative (yes, I know McCain was always a shifty, no-good chameleon–but we’re never going to see the McCain who stood up to that woman who questioned the President’s citizenship again). But remember, McCain was dead in the water at one point; he benefited from being the “sanest” among a group that included the fraudulent Romney and Mike Huckabee, who only hung on because he cornered the religious vote. Republicans weren’t all that excited about McCain. The party came to him because they thought he was the most electable, but I’m not so sure that will happen in 2012. In that sense, maybe the McCain this cycle is Romney, but I don’t think he’s corrected the problems he had with his 2008 run.
So, maybe the question is: are Republican voters going to nominate someone who they think is the most electable, or are they going to nominate the most ideologically conservative candidate they can?
You’re a futurist now too? Care to share some lottery numbers while you’re at it?
I’m not interested in your view from under the white sheet. Because I’ll tell you a dirty little secret: some of us melanin-challenged folks DO care. You don’t. That’s fine. We’ll just leave you in the dustbin of history.
You know what pisses me off? People who don’t pick up their dog shit. What is the problem with those people?
@Joel: You know what really grinds my gears? People who post irrelevant complaints.
@Comrade Kevin: It’s midnight out here. I’m calling this an open thread.
@Joel: AL haz our back dude.
Damn you. I was just about to go there.
@Yutsano: I’m also not interested in your view from under the I’m-morally-superior-to-everyone sheet. What the fuck are you… a mind reader? You don’t have a clue what I do or don’t care about anymore than you have a clue about what can or cannot be accomplished politically.
If you want to obsess over indentity politics porn, knock yourself out. It will change nothing. “Screaming it from the rooftops” is a waste of time and probably counter-productive. Obama was wise to steer clear of that sort of thing when he ran in 2008. The fact that 90% of Black Americans are getting shafted doesn’t mean much to the 50% of White Americans who are also getting shafted. The evidence for this is only every election ever held ever. So while bitching about it makes you feel super superior, it accomplishes nothing, as it has for the past 30 years or so. Except maybe for to help Reagan, Bush et cetera get elected POTUS.
So rather than focus energy on racially divisive hippy porn, I’d rather not alienate the few white moderate voters Obama can still get and instead focus the public’s attention on how crazy Perry (who is an absolute lock to get the GOP nomination) is. This is because I understand how dangerous the movement which powers guys like Perry is, and I do not share your pathological drive to prove I’m better than everybody on the internet.
You mean like the Dean 2004 campaign? Or maybe Nader 2000? It’s either far right wingers like Rick Perry, or centrist Third Way assholes like me. Emo hippies aren’t taking power anytime soon. Deal with it.
@Comrade Kevin: NL baseball grinds my gears. If God wanted pitchers to hit, he’d have made them good at it.
In other words, fuck the nigras and the spics if their (and our) insisting on civil rights takes the attention off you. Got it.
You’re honest at least. Yes you are an asshole. I sure as shit ain’t gonna coddle your Third Way fee-fees while social injustice goes on in this country. I’m not a hippie. My hair is too short and I’m allergic to weed. I’m a progressive. That means advancing us ALL. Not leaving others in the dust to advance white folk goals.
In other words you’re going to continue to waste your time on lost causes. It’s a free coutry, knock yourself out.
Hippy punching is not cool.
Grumpy Code Monkey
Has everyone forgotten that Bush was elected twice? He appealed to more than half the country in a fairly visceral way, even though a good chunk of those people should have known better. Perry’s going to have the same appeal with them, and if anything his hand will be stronger because he’ll be running against that black dude.
The MSM will put as positive a spin on the Texas economy as possible, and the only people who will know better are a few of us who hang out on blogs like this; the country as a whole will have no clue beyond the five-minute fluffing they see on the news.
@ant: How did McCain get nominated in 2008?
By running against that weak-kneed libtard traitor John McCain (2000). Did you miss that? Boy, he showed THAT guy.