I try to be rational, but the ghosts and weeping effigies get to me sometimes. I can’t shake this feeling that a full-on teahadist will be the Republican nominee in 2012, that it will probably be Rick Perry, and that it may not even be close. While much of this article is stupid (e.g., VPs don’t matter much and Christie is a poor choice to the extent that they do), this is on the money, IMHO:
The real test, then, will be the five upcoming debates. If Perry does well enough in those to convince the base that he can command the national stage, then the caucus and primary season won’t be long. It’ll be over before you know it.
John Ellis (who wrote the above) is a winger idiot, but that’s a feature when it comes to understanding the conservative zeitgeist. Mitt may go gentle into that good La Jolla mansion. Don’t be surprised.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Stevie!
schrodinger's cat
Are you saying that Rick Perry will win the general election or just the Republican nomination?
Baud
I couldn’t care less who loses to Obama, so long as he or she loses.
And isn’t the rational thing at this point to assume that a teahadist will be the nominee.
srv
It’s hard to believe the full press of the Rovians will not mortally wound Perry. It’s like a campaign of zombies, the one that makes it to the finish line will probably have lost a lot of limbs.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Veeps don’t matter much? Ordinarily, I’d agree, as in Bentsen v Quayle ’88, but John McCain would beg to differ. I think Christie would be a disaster, not a Palin disaster, but he’d alienate and piss off the fabled “indys”.
Ever since I was so right about the Pawlenty/Jindal (or Rubio) ticket, I’m retiring from predictions about the GOP race until after New Years
Jenny
Ellis is Shrub’s first cousin and nephew of George HW Bush.
Big Baby DougJ
@schrodinger’s cat:
Just the nomination…I don’t know about the general.
SiubhanDuinne
Stevie Wonder! Great choice, DougJ.
(I happen to love the Mel Tormé version, but YMMV, and you know what? That’s okay.)
Dan
I get what you are saying. I grok. What I don’t get is why you seem nervous. We’re going to get to run against Bush again! We should be thrilled!
schrodinger's cat
@Big Baby DougJ: I actually think Romney would be a more formidable opponent in the general election.
ETA: Why are you a big baby now, DougJ?
SiubhanDuinne
@srv:
It was just a flesh wound.
DFS
Yeah, this seems like smart analysis. If Perry can use the debates to convince the money that he has most of Romney’s strong points and all of Bachmann’s, the money backs Perry.
Jenny
I don’t know why this is surprising.
A creepy liberal Republican from “Taxechuettes” who belongs to a cult was never cut out to win a hard right wing, fundie laden primary.
The only thing that was barely holding him up was the insolvency of his opponents’ war chests and the love of Village. Now with that gone, he’s a goner.
srv
@ DougJ
Who would have thought the funkiest performance in the history of television would be on Sesame Street?
SiubhanDuinne
When you believe in things that you don’t understand
You’re gonna suffer.
Superstition ain’t the way
Big Baby DougJ
@schrodinger’s cat:
I was Ol’ Dirty DougJ before, then I became Big Baby DougJ just as Ol’ DIrty Bastard became Big Baby Jesus.
parsimon
This from the linked article:
I think is true, and I’ve been waiting for it. No negative campaign from the Democratic party will gain much traction — it’s got to come from the right.
I’m wondering whether there’s any power player with a longish memory in the Republican establishment: letting the evangelical base shape your direction was not a good idea back when the Republican Party first courted and took advantage of it, and it’s not a good idea now.
Big Baby DougJ
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
See, I don’t Palin hurt that much either. Maybe a point or two.
Big Baby DougJ
@srv:
I love that one.
Cacti
I’ve never thought it would be Romney.
Reformed yankee rockefeller republican as the confederate party nominee in 2012?
Not bloody likely.
SiubhanDuinne
@Dan:
Between your grok and my Mel Tormé, I am totally in the ’60s tonight. Groovy.
Keith
I don’t have much faith in the debating skills of politicians who refuse to debate. Not to mention what debating skills he may have were honed in environments where he can get away with some quips about breakin’ necks/cashin’ checks while skipping over anything substantive. I don’t think Palin could have even pulled that off on the national stage more than once.
Guster
Wouldn’t we rather face Perry than Romney?
Jenny
I guess the only thing that can stop Elmer Gantry from winning the nomination is if Romney can succeed with a gay whisper campaign via push polling, internet boards, innuendo, and chain letters.
Thoughtful Black Co-Citizen
Wonder AND The Pogues. Are you working your way up to 100% song lyrics for your posts?
Not sure why this is a surprise considering that’s all they gots. (You could say there’s a slight chance Huntsman or Mittens might pull it off but that chance is slighter than the chance flying monkeys will emerge from my ass and savage Rush Limbaugh.)
Redshift
@Big Baby DougJ:
I agree. As an acolyte of Nate Silver at the time, McCain’s drop was the fading of his post-convention bounce in a fairly typical fashion, not a direct result of selecting Palin. I do think Palin had an effect on McCain’s reputation with everyone but the Beltway media.
parsimon
@Keith: Yeah, a lot depends on how well and quickly Perry learns: his Texas schtick won’t play nationally, and his handlers have to be coaching him intensively on how to modify his rhetoric and message so as not to seem, shall we say, unserious.
Poopyman
@Big Baby DougJ: “Dirt Dog DougJ” has a better meter.
And if I were a betting man I’d say Perry is gonna flame out. Too long until the nomination is locked up,and he’s already going nova.
Violet
@parsimon:
That goes back to Nixon and even before. Anyone who was a power player then is getting up in years and probably can’t be much of a power player now.
Is Rove still enough of a power player to damage Perry? No love lost there.
Cacti
@Jenny:
Romney’s problem if he decides to go negative is that his religion is a huge albatross.
If he tries to whisper about teh ghey, expect team Perry to start one about “secret Mormon temple ceremonies”.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Violet: I see a Rove ratfvcking in Perry’s future. And with Crossroads, IMO Rove’s plenty of a power player still to do some damage.
Redshift
@Guster: Well, there are tradeoffs. Perry is more insane than Romney, which may turn off so-called independents, but supposedly he’s a much better campaigner. And there’s the tradeoff that Perry may be easier to beat, but he’d be much worse if he did actually win (not that Romney would be good to have in office, just that Perry would be worse.)
Cacti
@Redshift:
Well, when you think about it, Mittster has a grand total of one successful political campaign in his career.
cleek
please, BJ crew,
don’t turn this into a full-on 24/7 Perry-freak-out blog before the guy has participated in even one single fucking primary.
The Dangerman
As I posted last evening, it’s either Perry or Palin for the R nomination; neither is a viable General candidate and either will lose to Obama. It won’t be close and probably will be called about the same time as when it was called over McCain.
You can point to Shrub all ya want as a counterpoint to viability, but he ran as a “compassionate conservative” and still barely won (I’ll leave the 2000 fun alone); Perry has rather explicitly said “fuck dat compassionate shit” and Palin is Palin.
Tom Q
I also don’t get why it’s a surprise that a Teahadist might be the nominee. Given how great a percentage of the party’s elected officials fall into that category, the wonder is that the ’08 candidate wasn’t.
If I were of the “Obama is a sure loser” school that’s popular among certain posters here, Perry’s candidacy would worry me. But since I instead think Barack is a very strong, almost prohibitive favorite for re-election, I think Perry is the best hope of turning it instead a wipeout that brings a solid Dem Congress in at the same time.
Big Baby DougJ
@cleek:
Do you know you have more nerve endings in your gut than you have in your head?
Jenny
@Cacti: Mittens doesn’t have much of a choice. It’s like the great Gore Vidal movie “The Best Man”, where the Henry Fonda character has only two choices, play the gay card or lose.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcJNBAt_nPA&feature=player_detailpage#t=4087s
Cacti
@The Dangerman:
Dubya also did some major hispanic outreach and won 44% of the hispanic vote in 2004.
Not a chance in hell any gooper carries 44% of the hispanic vote in 2012.
Incoherent Dennis SGMM
Shit, Mittens will beat Perry with Rove’s help? Don’t make me laugh. For the current Republican electorate Mittens has more baggage than a 747 on a direct flight to Australia. Rove is an opportunist. As soon as Mittens bows out he and Perry will be BFFs.
trollhattan
@efgoldman:
I can see this, and think it possible, but have to ask: who the hell in the Republican field does Rove support? I don’t see Mitten fittin’ his, uh, needs.
General Stuck
Let’s face it. It takes an outsized ego to compete on the national stage for POTUS, regardless of any thing else. Obama has that trait, and so do the rest that won the prize, and many that didn’t win in the end.
I see no sign that Perry doesn’t possess this characteristic, be he crazy as a shithouse rat.
I do think he is going to have some powerful enemies in the wingnut tent, and none more so than the Bush crew, and it will be interesting to see if and how far they will go to deny Perry the GOP nomination. People like Karl Rove, who are sociopaths, but not stupid to realize out of the cloistered world of the GOP primary voting base, there is a potential this jackasse could do some real harm to the broader GOP brand, well beyond the damage done by GWB. And if you are stuck on Obama’s mediocre poll results right now, take the time to dig into the internals of about any of these polls, and you will find the GOP brand remains pretty much in the shitter.
I mean, how can you pivot to the required center, with recent loose talk of secession and doing away with SS and medicare, and likely a bunch more crazy shit we don’t yet know about. But as far as managing the national stage, Perry is a cinch for that hurdle, imo. The problem will be not grooving into the glidepath of a Barry Goldwater, that opened his arms and begged Johnson to define him as a dangerous nutbag. We could see a modern redux of that wince worthy run in 1964
cleek
@Big Baby DougJ:
you know what comes out of a gut?
Dan
@SiubhanDuinne
; )
The Dangerman
@General Stuck:
One thing I’ve read someplace is Perry is supposed to suck shit as a debater; now, given how bad everyone was at the last debate in Ames, I can’t believe he could be that much worse and still be comatose. But, if he IS that bad, that could be the hurdle too high…
Redshift
@efgoldman:
Alternatively, Rove may be enough of a strategist to realize how little chance any Republican has of beating Obama, and instead just try to protect the brand so it will be there to serve his next intended marionette. (In my more optimistic moments, I sometimes still believe that’s part of the reason the GOP field is particularly crazy this time — anyone who’s halfway sane knows they don’t stand a chance, and it’s better to wait four years than be branded a loser.)
Upper West
@Jenny: John Ellis was also the “Fox News Commentator” who “called” the 2000 election for Bush before all of the FL votes were counted, thereby setting the narrative that Bush was the presumptive winner.
As for Perry, after the results of NY-26, how can anyone possibly win who openly advocates repeal of SS and Medicare? Apparently, Romney is going to go after Perry for this. Gornisht helfen, I say.
trollhattan
@efgoldman:
Completely agree, he’s used to being a player and power broker but I can’t see him in an influential position with the current crop of Republican survivors. Backdoor it through the VP slot? Does he have Marco Rubio’s balls in a Texas clamp? (Think I just threw up a little.)
General Stuck
@The Dangerman:
I don’t think it’s a cinch for him to get the nomination. I do think it is his to lose, by any number of shortcomings or implosion grade skeletons in his closet, that we don’t know about.
I guess being a shitty debater could be one of those things, if he wasn’t debating a line of clowns. As it is, He will just need to grunt a few times and flash his hairy knuckles, to woo his audience of fellow gold plated wingnut primary
carnivoresvotersStillwater
Perry by 28%. Romney is floundering, and one more call to lynch the treasonous bastards will put him out of his misery. Espcially if Perry squeezes off a coupla Peace Keeper rounds into the freedom-loving sky after he says it.
fasteddie9318
It’s interesting, isn’t it, that it took about 2 days of real campaigning for Perry to turn the dynamic of the Republican primary race, at least in terms of the mainstream power players in the party, from “can’t we find somebody better than Mitt Romney?” to “HOLY SHIT CAN SOMEBODY PLEASE SAVE US FROM RICK PERRY?” I think this is a long way from over and it would be a mistake to count out Romney, as the only currently viable notPerry candidate in the field.
trollhattan
@General Stuck:
Let’s not forget the power of a buncha Texas bromides on a conservative audience. I gotcher 2nd amendment solutions right here–yeehaw!
Marginalized for stating documented facts
@General Stuck:
If this were true, they wouldn’t have stuck their hands up Dubya’s puppet skirt.
The people who run the GOP clearly don’t give a damn how badly the lunatics they thrust into power hurt the GOP brand or hurt America. Joe McCarthy, Nixon, Reagan, Dubya…
Puh-lease.
2016? Caligula for President. The ultimate GOP candidate.
parsimon
@Redshift:
This. Or at least, there may be interest in supplying a GOP nominee who’s charismatic enough to bring in the votes for the down-ticket races, in the hopes of taking back the Senate, and certainly protecting Republican domination of the House.
patrick II
@srv:
What a joy that was. Thank you for the link.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@parsimon: I was wondering about that myself. All the gossip is that Rove hates his former client Perry, he wrote a WSJ oped (before Perry got in, IIRC) that Paul Ryan or Christie needed to save the party (by implication, from Romney). I wonder if Rove doesn’t figure he and the party don’t have more strength as an obstructionist force in the Congress
Brachiator
Wake me when there are some actual primary votes.
When did Rudy 911 get his walking papers in 2008? And Mittens dropped out in February, after burning through $105 million of his own money, more or less.
I have always believed that political and sports pundits should always have their past predictions prominently displayed. Anyone who was wildly off should be banned from all media for two years. If nothing else, this might result in a little less meaningless speculation.
fuckwit
The Repugs want ANOTHER BUSH. They loved that motherfucker.
This is TRIBAL. This is the Confederacy demanding its candidate. It is not rational. It’s rednecks vs. everyone else. This is Jesusland vs. America.
Here’s Perry– a dumb-ass, vain, rich Texas crook full of gun shooting and brush-clearing and Stetsons (big hat, no cattle) and executions and war and JEEEEBUS!!! Hallelujia!
The Republican party has gone bat-shit insane. Rove Norquist and and the puppet masters have lost control of it. This debt-ceiling business should have made that perfectly clear. It will only get worse between now and next November.
Perry is their perfect candidate for the modern-day Repugs.
Look, the rational, non-insane Republicans out there in voter-land have long since become Democrats (Cole, Kos, myself, others). As Stephen Colbert brilliantly put it: all that remains is mostly backwash, but I wouldn’t drink it.
parsimon
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
That’s where I’d put my money, were I a Republican.
lol
This time four years ago, Clinton had the nomination sewed up and McCain was dead in the water.
This time eight years ago, Dean had all the money and momentum while Kerry was overhauling his campaign.
Organization matters. Staff matter. Look past the headlines and see who’s got game on the ground and the endurance to outlast everyone else.
Romney’s the only one who fits the bill. It’s 2004 all over again. Perry will be playing Howard Dean and Michelle Bachmann is Dick Gephardt. It’s going to be another murder-suicide in Iowa, folks.
Ron Beasley
By all rights Perry should implode before the first primary – think Fred Thompson. But there are plots within plots. I think there are Republican power brokers who want to take the party back from the Teahardists and the best way to do that is a Tea Party nominee who does a Goldwater and the most of the freshman Tea Party congress critters getting beat.
dollared
@Ron Beasley: I see another route.
As we sit here, the R’s have a 40% chance of having both houses and the Presidency.
I see Perry winning the South on Super Tuesday, a big public peace treaty with Karl Rove, and the money getting behind Perry. Perry will promise to be controllable, figuring that if he wins the general, he can put the knife in Rove’s back even while he kowtows to the money guys.
But who knows? Maybe Perry just wants somebody to pay him $100M to go away…
Ron Beasley
@dollared: I see another possibility – Perry is in the race to make Romney look good.
Anne Laurie
@Ron Beasley:
Okay, but does Perry know that? Because Willard may have a quarter-bill in his own personal munnies, but I don’t think even that’s enough to buy Perry’s services as a stalking horse. On the other hand, if the rumors that Rick is “even dumber than Bush” are true, it’s possible he thinks he’s running as a contender even if his backers consider him a sacrificial lamb…
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Marginalized for stating documented facts: “2016? Caligula for President. The ultimate GOP candidate.”
I think Vlad the Impaler would be a better choice, he was far more humane and compassionate than the Republican party of today.
James E. Powell
The worst thing that could happen to Perry is that his very presence causes Romney’s campaign to collapse. He will be all alone in the spotlight.
priscianusjr
@Tom Q: