On the question of whether the Republican Party is going to choose Romney as Plan B after Perry’s bareback performance last night, I have to side with DougJ over James Fallows and agree that the death-penalty-loving, heliocentrism-hating Republican base is gagging for another cowboy hero, and they got him last night. Part of the reason is that Perry is the right kind of white man. Fox voters can sense that he believes what they already believe: reverse racism is as big a problem as regular racism in Obama’s America. Mitt just doesn’t bring the fire on that particular issue. Fox voters have also never accepted that Bush’s presidency failed, and electing someone with Perry’s Bush-like demeanor is the clearest way to send a big fuck-you to the browns, the poors and the coastal elites who don’t have the good sense to recognize that Bush was right all along.
With that out of the way, I have to disagree with John on whether the DC media will swallow Perry’s load. I still think that nominating Perry might be the straw that breaks the Villager’s backs, because those Ivy-league-educated motherfuckers might not understand science or math, but they paid enough attention in Western Civ to know that someone who characterizes being the victim of an Inquisition as “getting outvoted for a spell” is going to come for their pampered asses next. But I do admit that John has a solid point that they’ve clapped hands for a hell of a lot of crazy so far, so it may well be that David Brooks and George Will will spend their time in the bastinado declaiming the authenticity and old fashioned common sense of the Torquemada in cowboy boots who sent them there.
Villago Delenda Est
The mob that cheers Perry on thinks that the Villagers are “lliberals”.
The Villagers had better be afraid. The veneer of civilization that the Teabaggers sport is quite thin, as we saw last night. Quite thin indeed.
dave
Heard Perry on the radio the other day and could have sworn it was W. Uncanny.
ant
Whats with all the homosexual overtones?
Is that really necessary?
lacp
Perry-Cain ’12. Because you know you want to.
mistermix
@ant: Plan B is homosexual? Jesus wept.
ant
whatever
JGabriel
mistermix @ top:
Not sure what word you’re looking for here, but bastinado is foot-beating and a bastinada is the stick you do it with. Maybe stocks?
.
JCT
Actually, I was so shocked that Perry even knew who Galileo *was* (have to give him “prapes” for that) that I was almost willing to believe that he isn’t a complete imbecile. But then I realized that he probably thought that Galileo rode a dinosaur everyday to his office at Padua and came to my senses.
Frightening display last night.
schlemizel - was Alwhite
I think there is an outstanding chance that Perry will be the next President of the United States. He will have the same support of the Villager Idiots that Boy Blunder had. The baggers love him to death and the morons who need a strong daddy will be lulled into support because “even the liberal Washington Post and New York Times don’t hate him” as they spakle over his obvious rough spots.
Bobo & douchhat & Will & Sully will all line up to praise this ‘man of the people’ as down to earth, the kind of guy you would want to have a beer with but will scare the piss out of Al Qaeda so have no fear. Sully will start apologizing before the end of January, once it is too late to matter.
JasonF
I read an article from Time.com this morning entitled “Social Security and Ponzi Schemes: Is Rick Perry Right?” then explaining why he is completely wrong, then concluding “But give Governor Perry credit for opening up a much-needed debate, and one that politicians have been avoiding for years.”
These people will never, ever, ever abandon the idea that the GOP is the thoughtful, fiscally responsible party. Never, no matter how much evidence there is to the contrary.
doofus
I cannot foresee any occasion where the Village will not support Perry (unless and until it is obvious he is going down to the shellacking he deserves). The best you will get from the Village is some equivocation around the edges.
Villago Delenda Est
@JasonF:
It’s the old Village false equivalency meme. If heliocentrism was not absolutely unquestioned fact nowadays, the vermin of the Village would be giving equal time to Aristotle’s theory of an Earth centered cosmos, say that “give the Pope some credit for opening up a much-needed debate, and one that scientists have been avoiding for years.”
Which is why, when the Revolution comes, you don’t go after the lawyers. You go after the Villagers.
lacp
@JCT: Sure he knows who Galileo was. He’s seen Goodfellas twice.
Samara Morgan
@schlemizel – was Alwhite: actually no.
Do you remember the 2008 Jesusland map?
We are now living in Distributed Jesusland, that map minus the cities.
Perry can only win in Distributed Jesusland and that means no WH for him.
JGabriel
schlemizel – was Alwhite:
But Perry won’t have the same support. W had Daddy’s name and contacts to lean on. Perry certainly has some of W’s Texas supporters, but there is a lot of ill will between the two camps, so even that’s not assured.
Perry has the support of some men with deep pockets, but not broad support among them. Romney probably does better with that crew.
.
MattF
It’ll be interesting to see where the chips fall on a Perry candidacy. Don’t forget, GWB was a Yalie and he came from a powerful political (and non-Texan) family. Perry is a lot closer to the reality of Texas conservatism than W was, I have a suspicion that will give the Villagers a case of the collywobbles.
PeakVT
How many months is it until the first delegates get committed?
Samara Morgan
@JasonF: they cant. Even Jake Tapper has to pay his mortgage.
No one pays to see a one horse race.
Blame the “freed” market.
Napoleon
@Jason:
block quotete>I read an article from Time.com this morning entitled “Social Security and Ponzi Schemes: Is Rick Perry Right?” then explaining why he is completely wrong, then concluding “But give Governor Perry credit for opening up a much-needed debate, and one that politicians have been avoiding for years.”block quotete>
NPR ran a similar piece last week on Morning Edition – Unbelievable.
JGabriel
@Villago Delenda Est:
I think the Revolution should go after rich conservatives first, the financiers of oppression and despair — i.e., the Koch Brothers, et. al.
.
mistermix
@JGabriel: So Hunter S Thompson used it incorrectly in all those Inquisition references? Interesting.
@ant: If “whatever” is the best you can do then you really are totally clueless.
geg6
@Villago Delenda Est:
This.
And I will undertake my part of that particular task with relish. And mustard. Lots and lots of fancy mustard.
beltane
@Villago Delenda Est: It helps that people know what the Villagers look like. The lawyers are kind of anonymous these days.
Samara Morgan
the most interesting part of the debate (i thought) was Newts passionate call for unity, after which the candidates went right back to attacking each other.
and that Romney and Perry were obviously the focus of most of the questions.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@Samara Morgan: And that no one should pay attention to Perry’s book because he wasn’t a presidential candidate when he wrote it. Then Perry goes on to confirm he meant what he said!
kay
I think media will back Romney for a more practical reason. Romney presents Perry’s policies in a politically palatable way.
They want Social Security privatized, sure, but they have to get the guy elected first. Eyes on the prize: that giant pot of public money that they’re just itching to get their hands on.
Samara Morgan
Silver gives him a B-
magurakurin
@mistermix: I don’t know there are a lot of homosexual references
Perry’s bareback performance
Republican base is gagging for another cowboy hero
whether the DC media will swallow Perry’s load.
You could have chosen other phrasing. I think the critique is valid, personally.
RoonieRoo
Those of you that think that Perry can’t win because he is not connected and supported the same as W, still have it wrong. I think he is very likely to win because for most Republicans and many independents, he is still running against Obama who they loath beyond all measure. If he was running against a white, old man president than the differences between him and W would matter. But he’s not.
Y’all need to be a lot more scared of Perry and it worries me, as an Obot, the lack of concern I see for the GOP field and this upcoming election.
The villagers will line up, nice and pretty, behind Perry. I have absolutely no doubt.
kay
Unwise, but not untrue. They all want to privatize Social Security. They’re just upset that Perry says it. Romney is able to dress it up a little in deceptive language, and get it past voters.
Samara Morgan
hmm….
Romney/Perry?
or will they hate each other by the end of nomination season?
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
Everyone is a fucking editor.
Samara Morgan
@magurakurin: do we have a new candidate for BJ Hall Monitor?
Samara Morgan
@kay: exactly. Romney is saying the same thing in Villager speak instead of cowboyese.
But the problem for Romney is the base only speaks cowboyese.
Racism and anti-intellectualism are easy to dogwhistle–destroying social security not so much.
JGabriel
@mistermix:
I guess so. Maybe he thought it was a rack you were strapped to for the foot-whipping?
.
niknik
@magurakurin: There were a lot of sexual references – pretty funny ones, I thought. I’m not so sure those three examples relate solely to homosexual acts, though… Me thinks the lady doth protest too much.
magurakurin
does anyone deny that the references are used in an inherently negative manner? “Swallowing his load” is used to describe a demeaning act of submission, the press cowing down to Perry. But such an act for some people is an expression of love and affection not demeaning or base at all. For all I know mistermix is in fact gay, but the tone still didn’t seem to add the impact to me that I imagine that the author felt it added. It’s just an opinion.
whatever.
Big Baby DougJ
“Bareback performance” describes it perfectly.
EDIT: And I don’t see what that sounds gay.
kay
@Samara Morgan:
It’s amazing how silly this myth is that we never “discuss” Social Security. Did these same people not cover and promote George W Bush’s massive national (failed) campaign to privatize Social Security?
Did I imagine that?
I’ll never understand why media and conservatives are so hot to privatize. Do they not know a single individual who survives exclusively on Social Security? There are a lot of them. I don’t know how they avoid running into one of those tens of millions of people. They need to get out more.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@magurakurin: whatever is right
Samara Morgan
@efgoldman: well….he finally printed my comment about Brookings, Distributed Jesusland and the 13 keys.
so he is still somewhat empirical.
but hes more horseracy than he usta be.
heres a sweet thought experiment for the juicitariat–what would happen to the pundit industry if the GOP was suddenly revealed to be absolutely nekkid, with zero chance of taking back the WH?
Comrade Javamanphil
FWIW, the media two-step, if it were to occur, would be exactly as demonstrated by the loathsome Ben Smith last night in Politico. For those unwilling to click through, basically the media will frame it as “some voters may think him too crazy” rather than point out the candidate himself is naked, covered in pig feces and screaming about justice for the rich from the oppression of the poor and brown. It’s not good journalism but in this world, it’s the best we can hope for.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
The problem here, Doug, is that history does not bear you out. The GOP has been attacking the media and the Village for decades with rabble rousing and ‘liberal media bias’. The response has been essentially Stockholm’s Syndrome. Unless he’s going after the likes of Gregory or Brooks personally, you’re probably not going to see the wake up call you’re hoping for.
Larime the Gimp
@niknik: I have to agree. I’m not aware that any of those three are specifically gay in nature. That said, anything that makes the homophobes squirm is a good thing in my book.
I also have to agree with those that say this hurts Perry in a general election. Attacking Social Security is the dumbest thing a politician can do. This is going to blow up in his face, and not in the fun way.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Big Baby DougJ: Ang Lee went and blurred a few lines with the movie having that name. As for swallowing his load, the phrase seems to be going the same way “suck” and “blow” have. My kids use those words and have no idea where they originally came from.
Samara Morgan
@kay: see #43.
:)
social security must be discussed PROPERLY, gentleman fashion.
Southern Beale
Ex-front pager E.D. Kain has an interesting piece up about this, says a similar thing. He writes:
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Brokeback, not Bareback.
LarryB
@JGabriel: Yes, you can be strapped “in” to a bastinado.
kay
@Samara Morgan:
One of the horrible WaPo editorialists set it out this morning. Perry wants to privatize “willy nilly” while ROMNEY takes a more orderly approach. The policy is the same.
The GOP base and media are having a minor difference of opinion on tactics, and marketing. They’ll iron it out.
geg6
With virtually every Villager alive (and I’m not so sure that Zombie David Broder isn’t leading the whole Village in their cheers) cheering for Romney like he was the guy who took out Godzilla with his bare hands, I have to say that, right now, I’m with you, mm. They’re desperate to have a semi-sane GOP candidate.
Someone among them seems to have forgotten to tell the GOP electorate that.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik: The nannies are “pulling out” all the stops!
ant
@magurakurin:
uh oh. now you went and did it.
enough already. just forget I ever said anything.
jesus fucking christ.
lol
@magurakurin:
I don’t think many gay men use Plan B.
geg6
@magurakurin:
Dude, I hate to break to you, but women do it for the same reason. As do men to their women. Nothing homosexual about it.
Samara Morgan
AllahP:
Mark S.
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Really? Geez, I’d be kind of taken aback if one of my nieces or nephews said that.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik: My bad. I still blame him. Cause I feel like blaming someone.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@kay: So there’s a pragmatist wing of the GOP and a purist wing. They still want to achieve the same thing, it’s just how they get there.
niknik
@magurakurin:
Wasn’t that the point?
Samara Morgan
@Southern Beale: why link that little ratbastard?
He is against teachers unions, pro “freed” market, and a JAFI.
He just farmed the juicitariat for pageclicks on his way to a paid gig at Forbes, and flipped on unions the minnit he got it.
Hes just an embryo Villager and a wannabe Douthat.
cleek
@RoonieRoo:
what effect could my concern have? the GOP base is gonna do what it’s gonna do, no matter what i think.
and until they actually start voting on the current batch of contestants, my concern seems doubly irrelevant.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Mark S.: Those words are so buried in our language for “bad” that Nick Jr is probably the only place you won’t hear them.
kay
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
It’s just silly for media to pretend Republicans don’t want to privatize Social Security. Again: the last sitting Republican President tried to privatize Social Security.
This isn’t “fringe”.
It’s nice for Romney that they’re setting it up this way, though, isn’t it, because of course Mitt Romney wants to privatize Social Security too.
That Mitt Romney will now be portrayed by media as the candidate who will protect Social Security is just beautiful for Mitt Romney. Too bad it’s a lie.
Samara Morgan
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Perry/Romney?
RoonieRoo
@cleek: Start getting involved with the campaigns now instead of later. Talking to your friends and being a voice instead of just assuming that the election is a lock for Obama.
I don’t know what you, specifically, are doing but I worry when I read the commentary here that seems to think the election is a lock against whatever GOP clown gets thrown up.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@kay: I totally agree, and “Mitt is no different than Rick” needs to be heard everywhere. I just thought it was funny that they have the same division issues we are, just they’re set on destroying the country.
JPL
IMO, The audience supported Perry and the media can’t accept that.
JGabriel
@LarryB:
Ah, thank you for the clarification.
.
schlemizel - was Alwhite
@Samara Morgan:
@JGabriel:
From your lips to His noodly appendages.
My fear is that Perry is not running against the potential Gore Presidency & the Nader “they are the same” bullshit but against the actual Obama administration & all the ‘failings’ the Republicans and Blew Dogs have heaped on it without a peep of protest from the President. Perry and the Villager Idiots don’t have to win us over, just the morons who spend a grand total of 5 minutes thinking about the candidates. I think Perry, with a huge assist from “even the liberal media” will do better with that group than he should.
We are going to have to work twice as hard to keep the crazy out of the White house next fall than we did to drive it out in 08.
cleek
@RoonieRoo:
i definitely don’t think it’s a lock. i also know the GOP primary isn’t my concern – i can’t vote in it, i can’t influence it, i don’t want to get involved in it.
i’ll do my part when the campaign actually gets going. but that ain’t now.
Mark S.
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Suck and blow are, but I don’t hear “swallowing his load” a lot on TV.
kay
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
It’s weird to me. People who survive on (or intend to survive on) Social Security are not a small and exclusive group. It’s as if they don’t exist.
The best thing the federal government ever did as far as marketing a program is send out those letters where they estimate a person’s Social Security benefits. People bring those to me all the time. Do media not know how fucked up and cruel it is to continue to repeat that it’s a “Ponzi scheme?”
People aren’t scared enough? Millionaires on cable have to scare them some more?
jibeaux
@cleek: pointing and laughing are fun, tho.
RoonieRoo
@cleek: You are right. There is nothing we can do about the Republican primary.
I think I’m just suffering from the memory of being a Texan with a LOT of other Texans screaming to the country “Dear GOD Don’t elect W! We know. Please trust us”. I’m also traumatized by having that hair for governor down here so long that it freaks me out every time I read people here blowing him off when talking about how the GE will pan out.
Samara Morgan
@schlemizel – was Alwhite: im not sayin’ dont work for it.
GOTVGOTVGOTVGOTV.
if the dems get regular presidential election year turnout, Obama will win.
but i doubt you are going to see even Nate point that out.
do you know why?
schlemizel - was Alwhite
@The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik:
I’m not convinced even that would do the trick. “Let them take Gregory, let them take Brooks – just so long as I get to have lunch at their table & asked to all the big dances by them” They have done it in the past, made excuses & piled on in hopes of remaining in the Kool Kids Klub.
Raven (formerly stuckinred)
@RoonieRoo: “Blowing him off” Shame on you.
jwb
It doesn’t matter what the Villagers themselves think; it matters what their corporate bosses think. The Villagers will do their bosses bidding as they always do. That’s what they are paid to do, and they are very good at it.
That said, it’s not at all clear that the bosses have reconciled themselves to Perry. Perry has split the GOP in Texas in a way that W. never did, and it appears that Perry is well on his way to doing the same thing to the national party as well. Because of the dominance of Republicans in Texas, Perry can do that and still win fairly easily in Texas. That’s not true of the country as a whole, though the fact that the economy is in the shitter and looks like it’s going to be even worse shape come next year’s election means that any GOP candidate will have a decent shot of winning.
Agoraphobic Kleptomaniac
@magurakurin: Well, I agree with you. I get enough of this sort of language, albeit in stronger versions, from playing multiplayer games online. But it’s the same idea. S3X as a weapon.
RoonieRoo
@Raven (formerly stuckinred): Umm….with a hairdryer…with all that hair???
geg6
@RoonieRoo:
Well, I can’t speak for cleek, but I do a lot and have done for the last 35 years or so. I was scared of these asshats back then because I knew what they were and where they wanted to go from a very young age. I am no longer scared of them (they are bullies and bullies are not scary to me any more), I’m scared of their policies. The idea is to keep them from implementing them.
As for so many people on BJ saying Obama is a lock, I really haven’t seen that. What I do see is a lot of people pointing and laughing at these clowns because this is a safe place for us to do it. And we all need to blow off steam when the stakes are so high.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Mark S.: Sorry, I based my comment on what you had copied before. You’re right, if I hear “swallowed his load” from one of my kids, it’ll be the only time they say it. I meant to imply that the phrase will lose a lot of its original meaning; I also expect it will be shortened to swallow, which will wrap it into the fish hook version of the word.
Steeplejack
@LarryB:
Wrong. Just posting a picture from a site called Bastinado does not mean that device is a “bastinado.” Even at that site they don’t refer to it as that; it’s just a tool used in the practice of the bastinado.
According to the dictionary, bastinado refers to the practice of beating the feat and to the stick or cudgel used.
I don’t know how Hunter S. Thompson used the word, but in my somewhat wide reading I have never seen a reference to bastinado as a device that you get strapped into.
mistermix
@Southern Beale: I told ED he missed one thing: Jesus.
JPL
@kay: How long before Rasmussin has a poll out showing the majority of people believe Perry?
Polling shows support for Cantor’s plan to release funds to FEMA only after cutting spending.
RoonieRoo
@geg6: I think what worries me is when people say that Perry’s swagger or death penalty stance or secessionist comments will so affect him with the rest of the country that it will tank him.
Last night’s applause at his zeal for killing people should disprove some of that, I hope.
I’m getting paranoid in my old age.
schlemizel - was Alwhite
@Samara Morgan:
No I don’t know why, seriously. – could it be because his numbers don’t show that? again, seriously, I don’t know
I also don’t buy your premise. I think it is going to take an extraordinary Dem turn out because I think the “low information voter” wants change & “knows” he didn’t get it from Obama. Despite all the happy talk around the tubes about having to run against a batshit insane Republican I think the race is going to be very very close. There was no reason McCain should have done as well as he did in 08 given he had to carry the previous 8 years of disasters on his back as well as his own failings and a demented VP candidate.
Perry will not have that (or Mittens should his magic underpants carry him to the nomination) but he will have the horse race media with its false equivalencies, his good ol boy image, a free pass on how insane he is, how big a disaster his time in Texas was (this sounds like 99 does it not).
I happen to think that will be enough to carry him across the finish line. I hope Americans are not this stupid but I hoped that in 99 and 04 too.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@kay: That’s the weird thing to me as well. Has FOX got them so brainwashed that they no longer here Republicans say “I’m going to end Social Security” or “Everyone not wealthy will just have to get used to a lower standard of living”?
I know part of the reason. In the case of SS, a lot of people I suspect are under the impression that they’ll get their SS money back, and that companies will raise their wages by giving them the amount that was paid into SS. They might get the employ part of that back, but they won’tget it back. And forget about the money in SS, the Republicans have already spent it.
kay
@JPL:
I think that’s a poor comparison. Most people aren’t waiting on or relying on FEMA funding. Most people have no earthly idea they are getting FEMA funding or assistance, actually. I sure wasn’t, until I looked. There were FEMA-qualified “events” in 36 different states in 2011.
Linda Featheringill
@magurakurin: #29
“homosexual references”
I thought that Rick demonstrated a lot of raw sexuality at times. I didn’t see who it was directed at. Maybe it wasn’t focused at all. But I thought “bareback performance” expressed something I hadn’t been able to put into words.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@JPL: Last week. Ras had a poll showing Perry ahead of Obama 44-41.
RoonieRoo
@Linda Featheringill: This is going to come off as really ewwwwww….but I’ll still say it. Rick Perry gives off raw sexuality a lot. I doubt i twas your imagination at all.
I’ve done several triathlons with him and ended up standing in a lake next to him while we both were waiting for our swim waves to go off. It is just the way he is and it’s definitely, I think, played a role in how he can win some elections while being batshit insane.
Just my opinion and I’m making myself go ewwwww.
kay
@JPL:
That’s why I like the SS estimated benefits letters. I’d do that for every federal program. Here’s your “estimated benefits” for the year, across the board. Wouldn’t that be eye-opening? Your school, your hospital, your knee surgery, here’s what it all cost.
It’s easy to “debate” these things in the abstract. If media want to get all hard-headed about austerity, that’s fine with me, but we should start with specific and true statements.
There was a Kaiser poll that came out about 6 months ago that I really enjoyed. BROAD support for Medicaid.
My whole adult life media have been dismissing Medicaid as a “program for the poor” but it’s much, much more than that, and ordinary people know it. They use it, or they know someone who uses it. Nursing homes, disabled, etc. The only people who didn’t know that were media and opinion writers.
Gin & Tonic
@Linda Featheringill: I’m old enough to remember when the word “bareback” had something to do with riding horses.
jwb
@RoonieRoo: The last thing we need to be is scared of any Republican. You have to respect that pretty much any one of them will make a formidable opponent given the economic conditions; but I wouldn’t classify any of these candidates as particularly strong. And Perry is not even close to being the strongest as a general election candidate.
Cacti
@JGabriel:
Perry also has the same problem the rest of the GOP field has: The latino vote.
The Bush camp made significant efforts to court latino voters and it paid off when he captured 44% of their votes in 2004.
There’s not a chance in hell that any Gooper comes close to that number in 2012.
Linda Featheringill
@RoonieRoo:
Lucky you! :-)
But seriously, politicians who emit that kind of sexuality are frequently successful.
Samara Morgan
@schlemizel – was Alwhite: did you try my thought experiment?
A one horse race doesnt sell product.
Brookings.
Heres John Guardiano’s take via the Dish..
“The Washington Post reports that minorities “are the majority in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan regions.” John Guardiano explains the political implications:
The worst-case scenario:
Of course, Guardiano treats this larger trend like some sort of change in the weather or a thing that one “waits out” (“People’s voting habits can and do change based on changes in their economic status, education, political campaigns, and, significantly, life experience”) without even acknowledging the possibility that the GOP’s current “political campaigns” are effectively turning away minority voters.
Linda Featheringill
@Gin & Tonic:
bareback:
I had to laugh. Yes, back in the Stone Age, that was how kids rode the oldest, calmest horse on the farm on lazy summer afternoons.
cleek
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Survey USA, Sept 2007 (NH only):
Giuliani 47 Clinton 47
Clinton 51 Thompson 41
Romney 45 Clinton 44
jwb
@Samara Morgan: Kane is smarter than Douthat, but you have his careerist cynicism pegged. On the other hand, I thought it was interesting, precisely because he is so careerist, that he chose this particular tack.
RoonieRoo
@jwb: I really, really, really want you to be right.
Linda Featheringill
@cleek:
Thank you for the recap of that survey. That makes me feel better.
JCT
@kay:
I will never understand why the real role of Medicaid in NH / elderly care isn’t being emphasized by the Dems. It is almost like it is a “liberal” 3rd rail because of the misconceptions re: the program for the “poor” (or BROWN poor people to the Tea Baggers. If Medicaid goes to block grants (ahhhh) or goes away any more, grandma is coming home to live out the end of her life. With all that entails. And tons of middle-agers, myself included have real-world experience with the difficulties that our aging parents face.
But then again, why anyone who doesn’t make > 1 million a year votes for any of these current crazy Republicans is beyond me.
It is becoming one of the mysteries of life.
jwb
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Given that it’s Ras, that means Obama is probably up by 10 in the real world.
Cacti
@Samara Morgan:
And time ain’t on their side either.
2010 Census figures showed non-hispanic whites made up 80 percent of the population over age 65, but only 49 percent of total births.
geg6
@Linda Featheringill:
Wow. Just…wow. Perry? Sexy? Damn. John Kerry is vastly sexier than he is. And that’s not saying much. Damn. I’m gonna have to take a non-scientific poll here at work. That is, if anyone around here has any clue who Rick Perry even is.
jwb
@RoonieRoo: But the thing you have to remember is that any GOP nominee will have a very good shot at winning the general just because of the economic situation. It’s likely to be a very tough fight, so we have our work cut out for us.
Samara Morgan
@schlemizel – was Alwhite: do you remember the Jesusland map from the 2008 election?
Obama won the popular vote by 66,882,230 to 58,343,671 and the electoral college by 365 to 173.
flash forward to 2010.
The GOP took the house because of turnout, which is historically lower in nonpresidential elections. if Obamas base had turned out in 2008 levels, dems would have kept the house.
what has changed in the Jesusland Map in the last four years? More cities and urban population centers have turned blue.
America is increasingly a majority/minority nation.
We are now living in Distributed Jesusland, ie the Jesusland map minus more of the cities.
Samara Morgan
@Cacti: that is exactly correct. it is only going to get worse.
demographically, this may be the GOP’s last chance at the WH.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@cleek:
@jwb:
The only thing I find valuable about Ras’s polls is that they tell me what the Republicans are concentrating on.
harlana (i said i wasn't going to comment anymore , but . . .)
Perry is a repulsive human being who represents the absolute worst of the South. That is all.
nancydarling
Featheringill, I bet Perry is a lousy lay, IMHO
Don’t know if this is OT or not, but the Dems need to keep hammering Perry on what a clusterfuck the whole state of TX is, especially their response to the fires.
The spin about cutting forest service funds not effecting fire fighting ability is BS. The funds cut were to be grants for equipment to volunteer fire fighting departments—guess who was on the firelines with old, breakdown prone equipment.
And why,in a multi-year drought, were plans not in place? My nephew who lives in Smithville does business with a company in Tulsa that has three DC-10 tankers in California. Two of them are under contract with that state, but one was available. My nephew got bounced around from one TX state agency to another before he found someone who could get the plane to TX. It arrived at Austin Int’l Wednesday night.
Why did the TX department for such emergencies not have, at the very least, a list of resources available?
The dereliction of duties by TX elected officials and bureaucrats is mind boggling. My brother, who lives in Spicewood says that TX is a “low service” state and the anemic response if just what they paid for.
I asked my brother if there are laws requiring home owners in fire prone areas to keep the brush cleared around their houses. His response: “Hell no! Texans don’t want to be told what to do”. In contrast, California requires homes in fire prone areas to keep the perimeters brush free. If you don’t do it, the county fire departments will send a crew to do it for you and then send you a bill.
The disgust my Texas family feels for how this was handled is pretty high—actually off the charts.
Anya
@magurakurin:
I might be pretty naive in this area but I am very sure any of those can apply to hetros.
Monkey Business
What frightened me most about Perry wasn’t the things he said, which I almost universally disagreed with, but rather the crowd’s reaction to them. For example, when Perry talked about Obama killing Bin Laden, there was virtually no applause. When he talked about killing 200-odd people in Texas, there was thunderous applause.
That’s fucked up.
Perry’s virulent anti-intellectualism should scare the bejesus out of anyone that attended, much less graduated, from college.
handsmile
Nation-wide voter suppression efforts by the GOP may mitigate the demographic trends cited by Cacti (#108) and Samara Morgan (#100/111). Anti-democratic in both senses, these efforts have been enacted into law in a number of states with Republican-majority legislatures.
Rolling Stone’s article “The GOP’s War on Voting” is an alarming primer on this campaign of disenfranchisement: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-gop-war-on-voting-20110830
Talking Points Memo also deserves great credit for its tenacious and widely-sourced coverage of this issue.
Gin & Tonic
@Monkey Business: You’re aware, I hope, that “graduated from college” is a minority in the US, and that “attended” barely squeaks over 50%?
Larryb
@Steeplejack: Ok, the strap thing is not “the whole bastinado” (catchy! I may re-use that one). You win on the strict dictionary point. So I’ll do what I always did in high school debate when Renee “motor mouth” Runcell had me on the ropes — shift the argument!
The usage (being “in” an activity) is still correct, or at least correct enough for the likes of HT and mistermix. See “in detention”.
Sloegin
The notion that the MSM won’t line up behind Perry after South Carolina is all unicorn dreams and fairy perfume.
Sure, he’s a stone cold killer that wants to do away with Social Security. But he’s the perfect scripted story line Republican manly manly man.
Very manly, and good hair. Maybe even a little gay, but certainly manly.
MazeDancer
While Romney is still a possibility, the Village will try to axe Perry. Last night, attacking Perry, Romney seemed almost human. So Perry helps Mitt in that way.
However, Perry is the Real Red Deal. Cruel. Tall. White. Male. GOP Primary voters confuse cruelty with strength. They like mean, nasty, and unafraid.
If you watch like a Republican, you would feel how easily the GOP will fall in love. He’s a White Man, a Cowboy, a hat tippin polite guy towards women and children til you rile him, then he whaps out the Ruger and delivers ultimate justice the way a Real Man ought to.
The only slightly troubling thing is his not making clear that he believes in Social Security, and that’s why he’s using forceful language. To draw attention to the need to strengthen it. Which he’ll do in the next debate.
Perry did a masterful job last night not sounding like Bush. He’s been coached. That’s why he seemed a little flat sometimes. He was talking slowly, making sure no cadences of W’s crept in. This morning press is all about Ponzi, no W doppleganger reports.
So the Village will make every attempt to help Romney win NH. Which is why I’m sending Roehmer money. Because Buddy’s got no chance, but he’s making his stand in NH, and if he eats into Mitt’s NH sure thing it helps keep Perry as the Crazy One. Which helps in the general against him.
Larryb
@MazeDancer:
Fixed.
IrishGirl
No, if past is prologue the intelligentsia is always the last to know, right up to the point where they are being loaded into the train cars. They generally have their heads up their asses and as only true narcissists can, they think they’re “special”. Whatever happens to the [sniff] “lower” classes would NEVER happen to them.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Sloegin:
I think it will take a bit longer than that, probably not until we reach the middle of the post-Super Tuesday primaries, but otherwise co-signed. The media will flip from shilling for Mitt and hinting that something is not quite kosher about Perry in that passive-aggresive third-person “some voters think that…” gossipy Heathers kind of way that they are so good at, to a 180 degree opposite round of anguished hand-wringing about how the very, very startling (to them) rise of Perry reveals just how badly out of touch they (the media) are with Real America and how desperately we need another round of purges of anything liberal in the media and how they (the media) need to move much further to the right to keep in touch with the thinking of the true heartland. All based on the assumption that a narrow plurality of the most highly motived and ideologically extreme voters in the GOP primaries speak for all Americans and represent the baseline of normality.
priscianus jr
@RoonieRoo: