Chris Christie has definitely gone from being a straight governor to presidential-candidate-curious. He’s probably not going to run, but when he spoke at the Reagan Presidential Library last night, he was a little more coy than usual.
Let me first express my surprise that people are actually allowed to speak inside the St. Ronaldus Magnus library — I would have thought that reverential whispers, accompanied by the occasional “shush” of a nervous mother, would be the only human vocalization heard in that sacred chamber.
That said, this kind of desperation is really begging for the full Palin:
Don’t even say anything tonight, go home and think about it. Do it for my daughter, do it for our grandchildren, do it for our sons, please sir: we need you. Your country needs you as president.
What’s next? Are these people going to stand on the lawn at Drumthwacket holding up a ghetto blaster playing a Peter Gabriel song?
A Christie candidacy, Christie shaking his man boobs and staring slyly into the camera — hell, even the mere mention of the alliterative syllables of his name — are all good news for Democrats. It all highlights the weakness of Perry and Romney, was well as Republicans’ disgust with their repugnant choices. To Christie, I say: dance, motherfucker, dance.
WereBear
It’s telling that they are nudge-drafting Christie because their other options are less attractive.
How’s that deepy benchy thing workin’ fer ya?
beltane
Yesterday, on the front page of DKos, there was a picture of Christie standing next to Obama, like Humpty-Dumpty standing next to one of the king’s men.
Is this the best they’ve got?
JPL
Steve Benen discusses a quote from Christie’s speech.
America now has to earn exceptionalism. Imagine if the current President said we had to earn our exceptionalism.
The other sentence that I noticed was this
“Without the authority that comes from that exceptionalism — earned American exceptionalism — we cannot do good for other countries, I thought repubs were against doing good for other countries.. Maybe Christie specifically meant Israel.
Guster
They should just hire a male spokesmodel with a square jaw and gravitas. Honestly, they’d do better. I’m sure any halfway competent spokesmodel could learn his lines better, and look the part. They’d have to do some heavy-duty heterotesting, but other’n that? Why not?
Hm. Maybe I’ll write that as a screenplay. A reverse ‘DAVE,’ sorta.
burnspbesq
Whatever else you may think of him, Christie has two appealing characteristics: an inability to suffer fools graciously, and a tendency to say what’s on his mind in simple and easily understood declarative sentences. Which means his half as a candidate for the Republican nomination is likely measured in weeks rather than months. He will inevitably tell the Tea Party how crazy its views are, and that will be that.
vtr
That woman begging cc to run – that was a set-up, right? By the way, someone, and I can’t remember who, said Obama and Christie standing side by side looks like the number 10.
Cat Lady
He wouldn’t even win NJ. After Christie implodes, who’s next? Maybe they can start the whole cycle over by getting Huckabee to reconsider.
Comrade Javamanphil
Too liberal and street, if you know what I mean. In their version they get the Nuge to play live…from the sidewalk so as not to be on anyone’s lawn.
beltane
@vtr: Christie as the zero to Obama’s #1 just about says it all. Maybe next week they will try to resurrect Rudy Giuliani as their new savior.
Suffern ACE
@burnspbesq: Yeah, the whole “I’ve appointed this here muslim judge, and shut your traps about the shariah law, you crazy buffoons” might be a bit off putting.
When do the governors of MI and PA get their two weeks at the top?
Odie Hugh Manatee
The M$M and Repubs are like kids with new but boring toys at Christmas. They open the initial ones and focus on one or two as excellent toys. They quickly get bored with those two and play with the remaining toys until they are bored again. Now they see a new toy on TV and want that instead.
My prediction? If they get Christie he bombs out in short order and they get bored with him.
Ash Can
@burnspbesq: Hell, he already has. The fact that they’re still clamoring for him to run anyway shows how little they’re paying attention/are able to comprehend.
It occurs to me that Christie is probably having a ball pulling a Palin here. If the TPM story from a day or two is accurate — about a bunch of the major-money guys wooing him — he must have a pretty sweet gig going right about now. Why wouldn’t he stay as coy as possible, for as long as possible? A gravy train like that doesn’t pull into your station every day.
kdaug
Slugs ricocheting between his leaden feet.
The black man scares them so.
Joey Maloney
@Cat Lady:
After Christie implodes we won’t have to worry about it because the entire planet will be destroyed, crushed and sucked past the event horizon of his hypergravity well.
Yeah, I went there.
JD Rhoades
@burnspbesq:
He sort of has already. When he appointed a man who’s of the Muslim faith to be a judge, he called the people shrieking over Sharia law “crazy” and their fears “crap.” I think it was Cenk Ugyiur [sp?] who commented “Pam Geller’s head just exploded.”
Edit: I see I’m not the only one who noticed…
flukebucket
Amen and amen.
JD Rhoades
@Comrade Javamanphil:
The Nuge would never play from a public sidewalk. Sidewalks are soshullist.
JR
He’s fat. Don’t mean to disparage the guy for what he looks like, but optics matter. And he’s fat. Not chunky or merely big, but hugely, obscenely fat. Put him next to the lean Obama and he’ll look like a bloated walrus. The guy’s is fat. Too fat. Unelectable fat.
Mark S.
Christie vetoes $420,000 tax credit for “Jersey Shore.”
JPL
Dave Letterman lampooned Christie last night. In one scene he imagined Christie joining the other candidates on stage. Unfortunately, they put him on the end. Although appearance shouldn’t matter, it does. The repubs should insist on a physical before anointing him as their leader.
Ed in NJ
I’m convinced the reason that Christie is flirting with a run is to help his standing at home. When Christie tries to ram his agenda down our throats, like the budget battles earlier in the year, his approval ratings are under water because no one likes him or his policies. When he’s flying around the country making speeches, and the national pundits fellate him on a daily basis, his ratings go up.
A good indicator of his real popularity will come in November, when the NJ state legislature had there midterm elections. By all accounts, Democrats will easily hold their majorities, hardly a seal of approval for Christie’s administration.
kdaug
@JR:
Operative phrase is “morbidly obese”.
Boo-hoos about fat jokes aside, We The People still need to know the health of our CIC.
Who’d be Christie’s Vice pick?
dmsilev
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
I hear the tickle-me-Palin will be hot this holiday season.
In (somewhat) seriousness, the stuffing more clowns into the car phase of the campaign is nearly over; the first filing deadlines for primaries are coming up in about a month or so. I read somewhere that Florida has an October 31st filing deadline, so that’s a pretty good line in the sand.
JPL
@kdaug:
Just imagining ties my stomach into knots.
Davis X. Machina
Christie is more of a threat than people think, and I would much rather see a Perry nomination than Christie getting the nod.
I’d go so far as to say they should have tapped him six months ago.
Not a Southerner—and its reputation as a regional party is slowly killing the GOP.
Not a God-botherer—and its reputation as a theocratic party is slowly killing the GOP.
Not an <A HREF="@extremist in just enough high-profile ways.
Yeah, he’s fat. But fat’s just a species of not-slick — and in the present climate politicians who look like politicians trigger the “Throw the bums out” reflex. One man’s villain of a middle Star Wars movie is another man’s ‘un-polished’. If he’s a gaffe machine — big deal, he’s ‘authentic’.
His war on public employees is a signature issue with significant bi-partisan appeal. The crab-bucket syndrome—if my retirement vanished, you don’t get your pension; if I don’t have a union, you can’t bargain collectively either; if I don’t have a job, you can’t have one either —is the Zeitgeist.
But it’s also the ultimate dog-whistle –you don’t get your pension, because you’re dark. You can’t bargain collectively, because you don’t speak English; You can’t have a job at all because you do sex wrong.
GOP candidates don’t pull the union-household vote anyways. Jerseyites may hate him, but not carrying your own state didn’t keep Al Gore from winning.
The GOP could have had the White House with this guy. They had their Howard Dean, and they didn’t see what they had. Of course, how long he’d actually last in office only the person who reads his EKG knows…
kd bart
At this point, they might as well draft Stan Smith from American Dad.
nancydarling
@kdaug: My thoughts exactly. He’s a walking heart attack or stroke waiting to happen. The stress of the presidency would put him on a Hoveround within 6 months.
Hoodie
I don’t see how Christie sells with the southern base of the party. He doesn’t have a religious or military pedigree, and his NY/NJ manner would be offputting to a big chunk of that crowd. That’s before even considering his liabilities on particular hot button cultural issues. A truly bad fit.
What the base wants is another GW, but without the liabilities associated with the real GW, e.g., fucked up wars, ballooning deficits, idiotic statements and relatively sane position on immigration. They want the FoxNews GW myth circa 2002. They thought they had that with Perry, but turns outs he had the same liabilities, in spades.
rikryah
let Governor Krispy Kreme enter the race. just more for the clown car.
rikryah
I don’t really care about this, but it did hit me last week. I transposed this GOP race back to 2007. Saturday will be OCTOBER 1ST.
The Iowa Caucus is FIRST WEEK IN JANUARY.
If, in October 2007, the Democrats had STILL been LOOKING for a ‘ candidate’, I dunno…it would have seemed ridiculous to me.
Napoleon
@Davis X. Machina:
Really? The anti public union law passed here in Ohio is up for repeal on the ballet and polling says that it will be repealed.
ant
I hear he was hospitalized not long ago due to breathing issues and asthma.
Ah yes, here it is…
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/07/chris_christie_weight_issue.html
Alex S.
I think the GOP elite would like to see Christie get in because he’s a jerk. And in his jerky mode he can tell whatever he wants to as long as he stays authentic. So if he were to announce Social Security privatization, the expectation is that people will swallow it ‘because the guy says how it is, even if it hurts his popularity’. The ‘SS privatization as compassionate conservatism due to the cleansing power of the markets’ didn’t work. The ‘nerdy libertarian guy uses math and says that SS privatization is necessary’ didn’t work either. So now the jerk shall try it.
But I think the miscalculation here is that Christie would be a jerk to everyone, including republicans. He’d split the economically conservative vote with Romney and Perry wins, even though Christie’s jump into the race would initially make a big splash.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@nancydarling:
He would need at least two Hoverounds, one for each cheek. That or a forklift. I saw him on TV yesterday and my first thought was “that’s the definition of corpulent”. He looks bloated, seriously. One more mint and he pops.
That’s who the Republicans want as a candidate for president, Mr. Creosote!
harlana
shows how desperate they are; awesome SNL/Daily Show/Colbert material by the way
jibeaux
Well, Bill Kristol wants him, so that’s good news. As Charles Pierce said, if Bill Kristol went to the track, he’d bet on the fucking starting gate.
ottercliff
“Your country needs you as president.”
Wasn’t that the very plea to Rick Perry three weeks ago? Who will be next:
Alan Keyes ??
John McCain ??
“Wide stance” whatshisname, ???
eemom
Christie ain’t gonna run anywhere. He’d have to segway for president.
(Just for suzanne. With love and kisses.)
Davis X. Machina
@Napoleon: It’s not going to pass by much, though In a presidential-year general election, you’d get a different electorate, one for whom SB5 isn’t the burning issue.
eemom
‘sides, I didn’t start it this time.
Jinchi
No it isn’t. One of the current candidates is going to be the Republican nominee in 2012. Whoever it is has about a 50-50 chance of winning the general election. It’s nice to see Republicans unhappy with their choices, but that’s perfectly normal for the out-party at the start of a presidential primary.
In late 1991, George Bush was considered a lock to win a second term. Jerry Brown was leading in the polls for the Democratic nomination, Bill Clinton was in single digits and party leaders were begging Mario Cuomo to get into the race. That wasn’t “good news” for Bush in 1991. None of it mattered in the end.
Jager
@JR: Christie is William Howard Taft fat.
Samara Morgan
@JR:
yup. Christie cant be elected in the television age– appearance is all.
And Romney is a MORMON, thus unelectable. but the worse Perry looks, the more likely it is that the elites will become desperate enough to embrace Palin.
Independents are taking a second look.
Samara Morgan
@Jager: Boss Hogg fat.
PeakVT
Christie = Giuliani + 200lbs – 9/11.
JPL
@Samara Morgan: Well that solves it. Christie would win in a land slide.
auntie beak
Drumthwacket? Drumthwacket???? seriously???
MikeBoyScout
In our system of choosing presidents by choosing the lesser of two evils, the Republicans are learning just how few and really bad options they have.
keith
If Christie dances, my money is on it being the truffle shuffle.
handsmile
@Ed in NJ: (#21) et al
My understanding is that Christie’s in-state approval rating has rebounded as a result of his disaster relief efforts following Hurricane Irene. Is that a reliable report or statistical noise? Happy to read your appraisal of the likely outcome of the NJ state legislative elections.
To me Christie’s public demeanor is a caricature of the Angry White Man. One might have imagined that after the episode of his travelling by state helicopter to attend a child’s baseball game, then riding by limousine several hundred yards from landing to ball field, would have eviscerated his reputation as a fiscal conservative. Oh silly me, IOKIYAR; another example of GOP hypocrisy scrubbed from public memory.
And while I’m content to have this thread pile on Chris Christie (there’s so much room after all), any speculation why Florida heart-throb Marco Rubio remains absent from the GOP dream date sweepstakes? Or is he to be the prom king for 2016?
kdaug
@Odie Hugh Manatee: It’s wafer-thin…
Samara Morgan
@Jinchi:
that would be the Generic Republican, who is not, to my knowledge, running.
all the specific candidates are much lower.
Romney FYI is 23%.
Perry is 9.5%.
jibeaux
@handsmile: I think he’s hoping for a veep pick. Hard to pick someone as your running mate who’s been taking stabs at you all primary, esp. with some of these thin skins.
Certified Mutant Enemy
@handsmile:
Too ethnic to be on top of the ticket. Look for him to be the VP nominee (to “prove” what a big tent the GOP is).
Samara Morgan
@handsmile: saving it for 2016 when he wont be running against an incumbent. So is Huck.
but CME is right, he might be the VP choice.
Samara Morgan
@Certified Mutant Enemy: Joss Whedon fan?
MattMinus
@JR:
Whats worse is, he’s not even good fat. I’ve known 400 lb guys that (as best as one can) carry it well. They look big, imposing, tough. Christie is fat in a way that calls to mind a middle aged woman that has had several children.
He’s also got the kind of fat where ass and groin become indistinguishable, they are just matching bulbous protrusions on either side of his body.
Superficial, I know, but these things matter, sadly.
Certified Mutant Enemy
@Samara Morgan:
No – the name comes from the song “And You and I” (the same place Whedon may have gotten the name for his production company).
eemom
@PeakVT:
Awesome.
DS
Christie supports civil unions, believes global warming is real, and supports gun control measures. Also pro-choice? Good luck with all that in Iowa and South Carolina. This is just the media hoping against hope that two sane political parties still exist.
joes527
@Guster: Tony Snow.
His only negative is the whole “he’s dead” thing. Compared to the negatives of the other candidates, this is a very minor problem.
Surly Duff
People often look better as potential candidates than actual candidates. Just ask Rick Perry.
Montysano
@Guster:
Ah yes, Vonnegut’s “Player Piano” come to life. We’re bound to get there sooner or later.
handsmile
@Certified Mutant Enemy: (#58)
Yes, when “call[ing] over valleys of endless seas” one must remember that “political ends, as sad remains, will die.”
Thanks much for conjuring that musical memory this morning!
Admiral_Komack
Chris Christie can be as coy as he wants to be.
Fat-Man ain’t running.
Punchy
Just sprayed my monitor with ice water….
Steve
I find it funny that in the country that just elected a black guy named Hussein, a fat candidate would “obviously” be a bridge too far. Here in the blue state of New Jersey, everyone was quite aware that he was fat and he won pretty easily. As we should have learned from the last presidential election, Americans will never ever vote for a candidate like that, right up until the moment when they do.
Admiral_Komack
@Alex S.:
“So if he were to announce Social Security privatization, the expectation is that people will swallow it ‘because the guy says how it is, even if it hurts his popularity’”.
Hell, Christie would swallow it.
amk
@Guster: Yup. At least a frigging super model will be an eye candy when compared to these old numbnutz.
Where is the pc police that yells “how can you attack this by calling this fat fucker fat” ?
Samara Morgan
@Certified Mutant Enemy: ah…ty.
i was a browncoat.
Admiral_Komack
@kdaug:
Richard Simmons.
PurpleGirl
@Steve: But did people vote FOR Christie or AGAINST Corzine?
ETA: I forget if Corzine was running for another term, but the thinking could have been to deny the Democrats (and Corzine) a victory. You know, punish Corzine in any event.
Alex S.
@kdaug:
I think he has already chosen his vice.
Steve
@PurpleGirl: Who cares? Plenty of people will vote “against Obama.” I’m not saying Christie would win, I’m just saying it’s silly to assume that a fat guy is unelectable.
Robert
@DS: The important thing, though, is that he hates gay marriage and will browbeat anyone who dares to suggest legislation that supports it. That’s good enough at this point in the Republican field. The media won’t ask him about civil unions. They’ll ask him about gay marriage and he repeat his claims that he will veto anything that legalizes gay marriage. Close enough.
I hope he doesn’t run because he absolutely hates teachers and public education, yet somehow manages to convince a majority of NJ that education is the enemy. He’s a good speaker and he’ll say whatever he need to (see: lie) to get what he wants.
maya
But, wait a minute! If he does run then that would make Obama the Anti-Christie.
handsmile
Now posted at TPM, David Kurtz has written a concise piece, “Fluffer.” that begins: ‘The only people more desperate for Chris Christie to enter the GOP race than Republican bigwigs are national political reporters.”
And while O/T, there is also posted there another master class in satire from today’s Jonathan Swift, “Colbert Defends Rick Perry from Slick-Talking Critics.” Danger: genius at work.
http://tpmlivewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/09/colbert-defends-rick-perry-from-slick-talking-critics-video.php?ref=fpb
B W Smith
@maya: That made me laugh out loud, my ugly laugh that makes me happy I’m alone right now!
Mnemosyne
@Guster:
I thought that’s what Mittster was.
And there is no way in hell that Christie has the stamina to get through a presidential election. None. He’s already had several health scares and the enormous stress of a presidential race ain’t gonna do his asthma any good. Yes, fat people can be just as healthy as skinny people, but Christie is not one of them.
Nevgu
mrmix suffers from an obsession with potential GOP candidates. Yesterday or the day before he was fapping yet again over a possible Palin candidacy.
Now it’s Christie…lol. What mrmix does not understand and probably never will is that the joke is on him and always has been.
Palin never had any intention of running and neither did/does Christie. They just like the attention and all the money they make from that through various channels. Is that really so hard to understand? Did life not teach you anything? Let me give you the facts of life sonny. Just follow the money. It never lies.
harlana
i’m gonna miss Perry
*sniffle*
FlipYrWhig
Maybe they’ll try Scott Walker next.
Villago Delenda Est
They desperately, desperately, need a horse race. Someone has to emerge from the GOP field who is a credible candidate who will make Obama at least work up a slight sweat.
Right now, there’s no one there…so, right now, you’ve got the entire horse race happening GOP side. It doesn’t look at this point to be anything like this in the general election.
So, naturally, the national political reporters are concerned. No one will pay attention to them after Labor Day next year. This is bad for their careers, and for the Ferengi Controlled Infotainment Networks that pay their six to seven figure salaries.
The Dangerman
@rikryah:
Nooooooooooooooo!
Think of the clown car’s shocks!
Jennifer
Fat Bastard’s not running for anything.
Waddling, perhaps. But not running.
FlipYrWhig
@Villago Delenda Est: Maybe they’ll drag Haley Barbour back out into the light. He could bridge the institutional and grassroots righties… I’m running out of other remotely viable names. So are they, I’m sure.
jk
Cain Christie 2012
Pizza and Donuts Forever
chopper
@Admiral_Komack:
now that he’s gotten han solo frozen in carbonite, he’s not interested in running for higher office.
chopper
@maya:
according to his nephew, his wife is the ‘auntie christie’
nancydarling
@FlipYrWhig: No, he’s not hunky enough. Scott Brown’s your man.
geg6
@Odie Hugh Manatee:
Every time I see him, this is the character I think of. Can’t help it. It’s him. I always look to see if he has a puke bucket.
Slowbama
Captain Obvious says: A morbidly obese president is perfect for a morbidly obese country. I doubt his weight would even register for many voters.
Keith G
When he runs, Christie will be an interesting and formidable candidate. He has some notable hurdles to success, but he also has a list of strengths which in a favorable environment would serve him well.
geg6
@FlipYrWhig:
Ooooo, then when the indictment comes down, popcorn futures will go through the roof!
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/politico/RSS_POLITICO20110926_Fed_probe_rattles_Wis__politics.html
The Dangerman
@PeakVT:
maya:
It appears we are going to have to go the King Solomon route and split the Internet down the middle.
FlipYrWhig
@nancydarling: I actually thought about Brown, but I don’t think he can push the social-con buttons properly. Who are the evangelical icons du jour? Haven’t heard about/from Rick Warren lately…
handy
@FlipYrWhig:
The fundies don’t like him, which would be a problem for him since that is where is biggest draw of support would have to come from.
catclub
@vtr: At Alicublog the interesting comments were about what the media would do to the same woman who begs John Kerry to enter the 2004 race.
“A hopeful nation waits for you, sir.”
Nope, only the Daddy party is allowed to beg for a daddy to save them.
Liberal media indeed.
eemom
@joes527:
lolz. This thread keeps getting betterer and betterer.
Admiral_Komack
@chopper:
Cole, the Force is strong in this one…:-)
eemom
@FlipYrWhig:
what, no love for our very own Governator here in Virginny? He’s fairly presentable as far as republicans go.
MazeDancer
America is a fat nation. A mere 100 extra calories a day adds up to really fat in a few years. Even if you’re exercising, 100 too many=fat. And taking off the fat and keeping it off are Sisyphus defined.
Ridicule of fat people, while a popular pastime, especially with people under 35 who haven’t gotten into the surprise fat years yet – isn’t popular with overweight Americans. Which is most of the voting population.
So being fat won’t stop Christie.
It’s his health that’s a problem: Hospitalized for asthma and breathing problems. Now these situations can easily be considered a result of his weight. So that’s why his weight is a liability.
The Presidency is so stressful it turns every holder of that office – who takes it seriously, and actually does the job – into an old man before he leaves. Even Obama’s hair is graying. Christie’s health is likely an insurmountable concern.
FlipYrWhig
@eemom: True, I always forget about him, or _try_ to forget about him. He _is_ an adequate amalgam of the Biz wing and the Megachurch wing of the GOP. Now that you mention it, it’s a bit surprising he doesn’t have more buzz. I guess he’s sort of redundant with Perry, on paper at least…
Short Bus Bully
Chris Christie is the Baron Harkonnen of the GOP.
Honestly it doesn’t matter who they nominate it comes down to how much they hate teh blackity prez as to whether the “base” will rally and come out and vote. They could nominate my dog and the race will still come down to “Obama is teh EVIL!!”
Ben Cisco
The pining for Christie reminds me of working with certain software packages:
__
RandyH
Jon Stewart summed it up well…
trollhattan
@RandyH:
Yeah, I thought he nailed that coffin closed quite tidily. He’s not electable, as he’s not acceptable to the teahadists.
@kdaug:
I’m sticking with the Wall Street mace cop.
nancydarling
Okay, BJers, Which is it, Mr. Creosote or Baron Harkonnen?
Elie
@eemom:
Well, frankly, its reality — all snark aside. The man is not healthy and the stress of the Presidency is a serious thing… You don’t have to just look at Obama turned wire man but W and Clinton before him. It took a toll on all of them physically and I am sure that Clinton’s by-pass if not a direct result, was certainly exacerbated by his stint in the Presidency. Remember, Clinton had that surgery right out of the gate when he left office.
Physical condition and the related impacts on mental condition/decision making, is not at all trivial and must be directly addressed. My guess is that Christie is just flirting and enjoying the attention, but that is it. (I do wonder why the guy didn’t have gastric bypass surgery earlier knowing that he wanted a big political career — not that those are perfect and without risk)
jomo
Christie is strong in a lot of ways. I think one underestimates him at their peril. His type of indignation, his common man touch, his blue collarness sell in a way that might help him to overcome some of the Tea Party objections in the primaries. He lacks the crazy and could take support from Romney. And he is centrist enough to challenge hard in a national election. To be honest, his schtick is wearing thin in NJ – but he is new to a national audience.
Lurking Canadian
Dude on TV yesterday morning (maybe it was Good Morning America? I only watched long enough for the Baby Beethoven DVD to start) was pleading with Mitch Daniels to reconsider.
They seem to just need someone they can present as credible so they’ll have a horse race to cover instead of discussing actual issues.
B W Smith
@Elie: I know Huckabee denies a bypass, but he certainly did something to lose all that weight prior to seeking the presidency. I really think Christie should consider some drastic measure for weight loss, not that it’s any of my business. He does seem to have associated health problems which would be exacerbated by a campaign even before attaining office. I’m not sure one can compare the stress of a national campaign to a statewide one. His temperament seems that it would also add to the level of stress he would feel.
Chris
Yeah, I read that. Jesus, and they said Obama had a cult of personality thing going.
What is it with wingnuts and the need for a Big Daddy figure to adore like this? Nixon, Reagan, Bush, Palin. Now this guy.
Barbara
You might call this the Palin effect: behavior characterized by the realization there is much attention and adoration to be gained by instilling a sense of suspense and anticipation that you MIGHT decide to run for president.
And who doesn’t like attention of the sucking up variety?
RandyH
@jomo:
Yeah. I would enjoy the entertainment value of him entering the race. Really.
But… Here are two things he’s done lately that might make him FAIL the purity test…
1. He defended a judicial appointment he made of a Muslim-American associate of his who Teahadists were accusing of wanting to enforce “Sharia Law” in the New Jersey court system. He called the people complaining “Crazies” and that he was sick of dealing with “The Crazies.”
2. In an interview recently, he was asked if he thought gay people were sinners. He (as a Catholic, I think) said that he does not think they are sinners because they were created gay by god, who gave that gift to them as part of who they are.
Either one of these items disqualifies him in the Teahadist qualification process. Yes, the uber-rich want to put him in the running because their other guys aren’t passing the test either. But he’s gonna be spit out quicker than any of the other Flavors of the Month.
Looks like it might have to be Romney after all.
B W Smith
@jomo: His form of indignation did sell well for a while. I see it possibly working in the Rust Belt and some areas of the NE, but his stance on labor would hurt him there. I live in the south and generally speaking, we like our meanness with a more genteel touch, think Haley Barbour. I would think he would also have a woman problem especially among independents. From what I can see it’s fairly easy to push the buttons that make him belligerent. People don’t mind belligerence directed at the other guy, but when directed at them, they get offended. With all the toughness the right wing projects, they are still very thin-skinned folks.
danimal
At what point do the GOP Governors start running as favorite sons in their home states, sending the nomination to the back rooms of the convention hall? I’m not predicting that scenario yet, but it seems like a possibility, given the anti-Romney animus and the inability to recruit a viable conservative contender.
Chris
@Alex S.:
This.
Frankly, I think that’s enough to make up for all his shortcomings in the South or the West. Think Nixon: he was from one of those faggy coastal “elitist” states, he wasn’t a segregationist, he wasn’t economically conservative, but he was a jerk who stuck it to liberals every chance he got, and that was enough.
In the current age where they’ve gone absolutely mad with anti-Obama rage, I think the same’s true here.
Chris
@Alex S.:
This. And it’s not just the elite.
Frankly, I think that’s enough to make up for all his shortcomings in the South or the West. Think Nixon: he was from one of those un-American coastal “elitist” states, he wasn’t for segregation, he wasn’t economically conservative, but he was a jerk who stuck it to liberals every chance he got, and that was enough.
In the current age where they’ve gone absolutely mad with anti-Obama rage, I think the same’s true here.
Elie
@B W Smith:
There is the stress of the campaign — which is significant. Add to that, right after, the stress of ramping up then governing… and these days, its not just the United States but huge international financial and security issues. You HAVE to be physically (and mentally) healthy. Being physically unhealthy generally effects your mental health — esp if its a chronic condition that impacts you a lot day to day.
Elie
@Chris:
I think that the Obama hate is not as big as everyone is saying. Just my opinion, but that is why they are in part having a hard time getting a good candidate. O has gotten in to their widdle heads a bit… they know he is doing pretty much a level headed job and aside from his “blackity blackness”, there really isnt that much fundamentally. Yes, the economy sucks. But they have no fixes and its hard to campaign as the standard bearer for cutting taxes on the rich some more and the grinch platform that “puts granny on an ice floe”. Yes, their advocates are mean resenters, but I don’t think that resonates with the majority of Americans in that way.
Romney is just a klutz. He can’t keep his foot out of his mouth cause he is just in his own bubble or reality. Perry I do not believe actually wants the job and seems to have some for real physical/mental issues — perhaps related to his back surgery? Everyone else is a fill in or totally off the maps crazy — like “crazy eyes”.
The republicans did this to themselves. They purged their party of sane adults to attempt to capture a base moving right off of the plane of this solar system. They now, effectively, have no credible leadership that fits the bill for where the country is and its role and challenges in the very changing international landscape…
PS – BTW, I credit the Bush clan for behind the scenes tipping the scale to the negative against Perry, also. Apparently there is no love there and you know those Bushes don’t play.
OzoneR
@Elie:
No, but it’s intense and it exists in the world possible demographics (seniors, NY Jews, rust belt working class, for example) which should be solidly in Democratic territory.
Jinchi
@Samara Morgan:
No. Polls between the incumbent president and various challengers mean nothing at this point in the campaign. Compare similar polls for any election in the last 30 years. At this point in 1979, Carter was crushing Reagan by double digits. These polls aren’t even predictive of the winner, never mind the margin of victory (http://www.brendan-nyhan.com/blog/2011/09/beware-early-general-election-trial-heats.html). What is predictive is the state of the economy.
In the current economic environment, whoever wins the Republican nomination will have about a 50-50 chance of winning the election.
catclub
@trollhattan: “Yeah, I thought he nailed that coffin closed quite tidily.”
What’s this about Dick Cheney?
Surly Duff
One big negative for Christie, like Obama, he doesn’t seem like the type of guy who would fit in at the Applebees salad bar, or even anywhere near salad. On the positive side, he would happily order everything else on Applebees menu.
catclub
@Elie: “I credit the Bush clan for behind the scenes tipping the scale to the negative against Perry.”
Agreed.
It would be interesting to chart the time from announcement
to history for the various campaigns so far.
Newt! Bachmann! Pawlenty! Perry! It seems to be accelerating.
Jinchi
@catclub:
You forgot Donald Trump.
nancydarling
@catclub: Is it possible they are trying to sink everyone’s political ship and then trot out Jeb just in time to save the GOP?
Judas Escargot
@Lurking Canadian:
Mitch Daniels is short, as in under 5’8″ short. The one physical sin even less forgivable than being overweight in this country.
Won’t happen.
trollhattan
@Judas Escargot:
How would he look with his head popping out of a tank turret? I can see that asshat riding one towards demonstrators at the state capitol.
trollhattan
@catclub:
I think he wears wooden-stake-resistant body armor (underneath the batteries).
Too bad Peter Sellers isn’t alive to portray Cheney as a Dr. Strangelove spinoff. Maybe Johnny Depp?
Elie
@nancydarling:
They would need to do this at the speed of light and I don’t think its worth it. I am sure that he will be a player in 2016, but wouldn’t think that they would have the time to ramp up and get the money behind them this fast, but you know, anything is possible…they really are running out of time to do that, though and it would be a huge mind fuck to the supporters in the existing field, doncha think? Not that I care… bring on Republican mind fuck, I say!
nancydarling
@Elie: Don’t know enough about their arcane rules, but could it happen in a brokered convention (if that is the right term)?
Elie
@Jinchi:
Man, I get your take in general, but I think that the freak out is precisely because the Republicans themselves can’t believe their candidates can even do 50/50. If they believed that their dude/dudettes could go 50/50 for them they wouldnt be so panicked. On its face, they are seeding Obama an advantage that they do not think that they can overcome.. why else embarrass yourselves that way with all this beauty contest shit? And can you imagine how pissef off and demoralized the individual candidates and their staff’s are right now? I am sure that they are feeling even shakier — not something that either Perry or Romney needs.
Elie
@nancydarling:
Yep — but in this day and age, that is a long time from now and the message until then would be chaos — really damaging the republican brand for a long time. And remember what is happening in the world today: huge economic instability and other shit. The last thing you would want to do is hand over the control to a party that can’t even figure out who they want to BE President. I think that it would hurt their congressional races as well — looking dishevelled and disorganized. The existing candidates would be majorly ticked off too. Its just not how you would ideally go against a sitting President..
Just me though..
Samara Morgan
@Jinchi: i seriously doubt that. otherwise the conservative elites wouldnt be so desperate to get christie to run.
ANYONE that gets the nom will lose approximately as badly as McCain did….365 to 173 EC votes.
Elie
@trollhattan:
Peter Sellers would have been perfect. Not sure about Johnny Depp — possibly…
Samara Morgan
@Judas Escargot: Daniels is 5’3″. Christie is FAT. Romney is a MORMON. Perry is a an idiot.
who’s left?
Rubio and Jeb Bush are too smart to run, Petraeus has told them NO a thousand times.
So who?
that is why Palin still has a shot.
catclub
@nancydarling: It could be.
But that might be a bridge too far for the rest of the US public. The teahadis might revolt over the latina wife.
But what do I know.
Jinchi
@Elie:
People always freak out in these campaigns. Democrats didn’t like Tsongas, Brown or Clinton in 1992, either. That’s why they wanted Cuomo. The fantasy candidate is always much more impressive than a real one. They’ll keep freaking out until it becomes obvious which candidate is going to win, then they’ll treat him like the second coming of Reagan.
And I have no doubt that Perry, Romney, Christie, or any other candidate who can get past the nomination fight will be looking just fine to Republican voters after April 2012.
Samara Morgan
@Jinchi: and what is also predictive is the changing demographics of the electorate.
All dems need to do is GOTV. Do you think the GOP candidate can get MOAR than 64% of the white (NHC) vote?
i don’t.
:)
B W Smith
@nancydarling: I am sure Elie will answer but if memory serves me correctly the last winning presidential candidate from a brokered convention was FDR. Brokered conventions make it very hard for a nominee to win. It is exciting in the media but most times it is avoided because of the splintering it does to the party. The modern primary system makes brokering a lot less likely, too. Plus it is very hard for an outsider that has not campaigned to assert himself enough to swoop in, even a Bush.
Samara Morgan
@Jinchi: colorado WILL NOT vote for a MORMON.
I can guaran-damn-tee that. Did you miss Kay’s post where i ‘splained local ‘tudes towards the polygs?
Elie
@Jinchi:
I don’t fully disagree with you if these were normal times, nationally and internationally. My caveat is that these aren’t those kind of times and that is why they are unhappy with their candidates. Romeny and Perry have a message tailored to the inside of a tin can — its just not big or serious enough to take the reigns outa Obama’s hands. To their credit, I think that they know it. Did you see where Boehner cut the crap and just skipped the government shut down bullshit earlier this week? Believe me, he was ready for melodrama round 2 but its breaking on even them that there is some serious shit going down and now is not the time to play that. Yes, they hate and will always hate Obama. But they truly know that there is a lot more at stake right now and over the next few months (or longer). Everyone is tipping around cause they fucking know that we are this close from a lot of financial and other catastrophe.
Of course this is all just my opinion. I have been known to be seriously wrong.
Jinchi
@Samara Morgan:
Your forgetting that there is a difference between the primary and the general election. Republicans will vote for whoever gets the nomination against Barack Obama in 2012. But they still have preferences about who they’d most like to be sitting in the Oval office. So they play up their dream candidate in the hopes he’ll jump in the race, and they’ll demonize others who aren’t part of their clique. That doesn’t mean that there’s fundamentally anything weak about the current field, though.
And you think Barack Obama is going to do as well in 2012 as he did in 2008? I hope you haven’t wagered anything important on that bet.
THE
@Samara Morgan:
You are so prejudiced. What about Jabba the Hutt? He was a fine leader of Tatooine.
(I’ve just been watching Star Wars on Blu Ray and I haven’t come down from the High Definition high yet.)
Elie
@B W Smith:
not to mention getting a staff together… the 24 hour media spotlight and speed of information and communication would make this pretty impossible.
Elie
@Jinchi:
Are you hoping? seriously….
I’m starting to read between YOUR lines…
B W Smith
@Elie: Well, technically you could still have a brokered convention if no candidate wins enough delegates. Since the R’s don’t use super delegates (I don’t think), it could make for interesting wrangling at the convention. I don’t think you’d see an outsider come in, though, for all the reasons we’ve spoken about.
Matthew Reid Krell
@Samara Morgan: I picked the losing side, too. Still not convinced it was the wrong one.
Jinchi
@Samara Morgan:
I’m pretty sure that the demographics of this country next November will be pretty close to what they were last November which was pretty close to what it was in 2008. And yet in 2008 we elected a black man president, together with dozens of Democrats. Then in 2010 the country gave a lopsided victory to racist, rightwing nutjobs.
So I don’t think demography is very predictive at all.
On the other hand, in 2008 we were at the start of a major economic collapse and the country voted out the party they considered responsible for the fiasco. In 2010 we were still in an economic disaster and the country (again) voted out the party in charge. I expect a lot of incumbents will lose again next year. The question is whether the president will be among them.
Death Panel Truck
@JR: We haven’t elected a fatty since Taft, and we ain’t likely to.
He was also the last president with any facial hair.
Death Panel Truck
@rikryah: They’ll need a clown SUV. Or a two-ton truck.
FlipYrWhig
@jomo:
He’s not blue collar, though. He’s just a dick.
Tony J
@nancydarling:
Neither. Christie = Eric Cartman in a live action version of South Park – Where Are They Now?.
Calouste
@Samara Morgan:
Or the altervative path to victory that we know the GOP is looking at: make sure fewer Hispanic, African-American and Asian citizens vote.
Elie
@Jinchi:
2010 was not a national election. There were Senate or congressional races in different states which individually might be quite different from the overall national trends/statistics. 2010 was also after the President had achieved significant successes on health care and stimulus legislation. The GOP could focus on individual races in a minority of states. Each of those contests also were NOT gigantic victories and there have been off cycle races since then that have gone to both sides.
I get your logic but it is not accurate enough and your conclusion is therefore questionnable. It feels good for you though I am sure. Obama just CANT win!!!
Elie
@Death Panel Truck:
Or maybe they could add a hitch and put a trailer on the regular Klown Kar?
DFH no.6
@Steve:
Exactly.
That’s why I think this whole thing about Romney not being electable because he’s Mormon is wrongheaded. Most people just don’t care about that.
We have a really shitty economy, no duh. Obama is saddled with that, and unless a miracle occurs it won’t change between now and Nov. 2012. That’s the pretty obvious 800 lb. gorilla, and the single most important election factor.
If Romney is the GOP candidate (and I believe he most likely will be) he will be presented as the non-crazy, sensible businessman (and non-political Washington outsider) with gov’t executive experience who can get things moving again. He’ll be the change agent desperately looked for this time, as Obama was in 2008 (now Obama’s the status quo).
And Romney won’t be seen by the overall electorate as a teabagger nutcase, mostly because he actually isn’t, no matter how much he’ll have to pander in the primaries.
Romney can win the fascist primaries, and can most certainly then win the general.
I’m rooting for Perry in the primaries – I think Obama beats him even with the shitty economy.
Elie
@DFH no.6:
Romney is a very clumsy and strangely inarticulate candidate. Holding aside the Mormon thing, the guy lives with his foot in his mouth on things big and small.
Theoretically, all that you say is true, but the reality is that Romney can’t seem to lock this thing down or the forces that you speak of would have locked if for him. He HAS BEEN PRESENTED — last cycle and now — but somehow he just can’t get it done. That’s on HIM, not Obama. There is nothing keeping the “presenters” that you talk about from making him THE top dude and keeping it that way — if they COULD. But they CAN’T because Romney is a weak candidate — for whatever reason you want to cite. The man cannot get it done or he wouldn’t be having the probs he is having now and all the beauty contest thing would not be happening. You don’t see that?
DFH no.6
@Elie:
No, no, of course I see all that about Romney.
He is a fairly clumsy, gaffe-prone campaigner, no doubt. And he seems to be a pretty weird guy overall (though I find Perry to be even weirder, myself).
And he hasn’t sealed the deal yet with the fascist primary voters, not at all.
But at this stage of the game usually no one has yet sealed the deal in a presidential primary run. The first actual primaries are months away.
I don’t have figures handy (don’t feel like looking them up, either) but I recall McCain’s campaign was considered pretty much dead around this time in 2007. He was running out of money, wasn’t polling that well (being No True Republican and all), and there seemed to be a sad (because they like him so much) media death watch over his run.
Republicans seemed to be looking for someone, anyone, besides McCain, just like Romney this time (remember the love for Grandpa Fred Thompson?). Then what happened?
I think Romney is ahead of where McCain was this early on.
All I’m saying is that it’s misguided to think Romney’s Mormonism is a deal-breaker, even for the largely fundagelical fascist base.
I don’t think it is, and Romney appears to me (and I’ve been closely watching this stuff since ’68) both electable in the primaries and to then be Obama’s most dangerous potential opponent in November.
The Mormon thing will be insignificant, even in the primaries, especially in the general if he gets there.
Romney actually is the guy some people apparently want Christie to be.
Chris
@Calouste:
Or eventually absorb the Hispanics, or some of them, into the “white” demographic in the same way the Irish, the Italians, the Poles, the Greeks, the Czechs, the Jews, and all these other guys who were causing such a fuss just one hundred years ago are.
DFH no.6
@Chris:
And this is why I find matoko-chan’s “demographic timer” schtick to be as wrongheaded as her belief that Romney can’t get elected because he’s Mormon.
Hispanics can most certainly be “assimilated” into today’s admittedly mostly-white Republican Party. Much like non-Hispanic Catholics (who until fairly recently were primarily Democratic voters, but who now largely vote Republican) have been assimilated into a previously almost-entirely WASP Republican Party.
The fact that white Republicans are such racist (and often xenophobic) motherfuckers has kept that from happening, even though culturally many Hispanics (especially those fairly newly arrived here) are pretty conservative, and would otherwise be natural fits into the conservative party.
The obvious Republican racism besides, Dumbya still got 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, anyway.
It’s entirely possible that the Republicans “clean up their act” enough over the coming election cycles to bring significant numbers of Hispanics into the Republican fold. And that these voters become regular voters who can be counted on to actually vote (like, say senior citizens), unlike so many Dem-leaning Hispanics today.
I said “possible”. Just as likely, the Republicans simply can’t help themselves, continue to let their racist freak flag fly, and Hispanics thus remain largely Democratic (though still participating in far lower percentages compared to their white compatriots).
It can go either way (I’d bet on the “Republicans remain demonstrably-racist/Hispanics remain primarily Democratic”, but it’s far from certain).
Patrick
@Keith G: Not only would it likely not register, it’s a great “lookit them [librul media/librul writers/commie bloggers] makin’ fun of a guy for being fat” pivot.
Jinchi
@Elie:
If your implication is that I’m personally rooting against Obama, then it’s trivially simple to find out what my actual political views are.
My main concern is that people have a habit of seizing on news, data and polls that convince themselves that their opponents have no chance of winning. And of course they’ll reject any evidence, like a massive loss at the polls in an off-year election, that refutes them. This makes life very easy since you don’t have to get off your ass if you know that your guy is going to win in a landslide.
I’ve read enough nonsense about permanent Democratic majorities, filled with facts about demographics, about how Independents aren’t really independent, about how Democrats have a lock on the minority vote, about how progressive policies are more popular, etc., etc., etc.. Nobody seems concerned that Republicans were claiming that they had created a permanent majority only a few years before Obama won in a landslide.
And when I point out that the evidence you’re relying on to make your point has been refuted time and again throughout American history, that polls this early in the campaign predict nothing about the final outcome, that parties inevitably squabble over candidates, that Reagan, Carter, Clinton and both Bushes were also described as clumsy and inarticulate, you tell me that these aren’t “normal times”.
Which is another phrase I’ve been hearing my entire lifetime.
My logic is simple. Nobody will even remember the complaints about the current Republican field in 6 months. Whoever emerges will be described as a strong leader by the media and by those inclined to vote for the Republican ticket. And if unemployment remains at 9% and wages remain stagnant, this is going to be a very competitive election. This may not be accurate enough for you. But I think the conclusion is pretty solid.
Triassic Sands
I’ve commented here before that I have seen statements Christie has made regarding not running. I don’t believe I’ve ever seen any politician make a stronger case against himself running. If Christie decides to get in, I expect to see anti-Christie campaign ads featuring his own words about just how unprepared he is to be president. Hey, says Mittens or Perry, don’t take my word for it, listen to what Chris Christie has to say about Chris Christie running for president.
If he gets in, he’s going to look awfully silly when they replay clips of him stating — in unequivocal language — that he isn’t ready yet — as in qualified — to run for president.
DFH no.6
@Jinchi:
Agree wholeheartedly.
I want Obama to win in 2012, and I’ll donate, phone-bank, and canvass for him just as I did in 2008.
But he’s the status quo now, and whoever the fascists put up will be the change-agent this time.
And the economy will most likely be roughly as shitty as it is now in a year, with equal chances it will be noticeably worse as it will be better at all.
That’s not good for Obama, of course, so yes, very competitive.
Anyone who thinks Obama has this easily is willfully self-deluded, same as thinking – because they recognize his failings/negatives – that Romney either can’t win the primaries or can’t win the general.
He most certainly can (I think he’s the most likely Republican nominee, in fact) and so can others, including Perry, as dopey as he’s been in the debates.
Obama could most likely beat Perry, but it would not be a cakewalk. Much tighter with Romney, IMAO.
TruthOrScare
@Jinchi: I think your reasoning is solid. And as you or someone else said earlier, by April 2012 the GOP nominee will be The Second Coming per Faux and Rush, whoever it may be.
My money is on Romney/Perry. I really don’t get why people think Romney’s phoniness or Mormonism will be a major impediment if he gets the nod. A common RedState refrain is that they’d vote for a tuna sandwich if it is the alternative to Obama, so Big Money knows it has the base tight by the short hairs this election.
Perry would be the insurance to get the fundies on board. Who has more cred in that regard than him? For those now having the vapors over his support of the Texas Dream Act, if he’s the VP nominee they’ll breathe a sigh of relief that he won’t be in any position to advance that as VP under a pres who opposes it.
They’ll be sold as having eleventy billion years of executive experience between them and soon enough the Villagers would be swooning over Perry’s ‘historic’ appeal to Hispanics (and he does in fact have a good record in TX with gaining Hispanic votes). Hispanics might even be interested in voting for a GOP ticket that includes him since he didn’t throw them under the bus by disavowing his signature of the Texas act.
And really, at the bottom of it, if the GOP prevails with control of the WH and Congress in 2012, any given candidate would be equally as beholden to the crazy base if they want to be re-elected in 2016. I think Romney could certainly be counted on to sign off on any crazy bill or budget sent to him by a GOP Congress, to let James Dobson pick the judges, and to sign the order to bomb Iran into glass. Can the TP/GOP really ask any more of its president? I’d expect Rush and Faux to be pointing that out ad nauseum.
Triassic Sands
@burnspbesq:
I predict this will change if he decides to run.
See above. I expect Christie’s outspokenness to become a lot more selective if he decides to run for president.
His first order of business will be to figure out how to explain how he suddenly acquired the skills and experience he has so recently denied having, which one day made him unready/unqualified to run for president (in his own words), and the next, for some reason he will have to explain, didn’t matter anymore at all. Maybe he’ll just say something subtle (his forte) like — “If a one term Negro senator can do it, how hard can it be?” Poetry like that will endear him so deeply to the Teabaggers that afterward he’ll be able to say pretty much anything else he wants and they’ll forgive him.
Note: when I say he’ll become more subtle that will be with regard to potential supporters; he’ll still be an obnoxious boor with non-supporters.
Triassic Sands
@JR:
How good is his arm? If he can throw from the pitcher’s mound to home plate accurately and with a little zing, he may be acceptable. After all, that is a more important measure of a person’s qualifications for the presidency than almost any other. A guy who can do a credible job of throwing out the first ball, is automatically a manly man (George W. Bush) and a huge swath of America is more or less guaranteed to swoon.