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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2012 / Predicting Votes by Counting Checks?

Predicting Votes by Counting Checks?

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For the stats dorks, Dan Amira at NYMag‘s Daily Intel raises the question “Which States Are Most Enthusiastic About Obama’s Reelection?”:

The Obama reelection campaign is very proud that it has now reached 1 million donors. As it should be! That’s a lot of people who still believe strongly in the president despite, you know, How Things Are. Yesterday, Team Obama launched a page where you can browse all kinds of information about these donors — their most common first names, for example, or what time of day they were most likely to donate. One piece of data that caught our eye was the number of individual donors from each state. This, we thought, could actually serve as a pretty useful indicator of which state is most enthusiastic about Obama’s reelection. A poll can tell you how many people say they plan to vote for Obama, but words are not as important as deeds, and actually donating money is a clear signal of not just support, but passion and motivation…
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So, what does the map indicate about the intensity of Obama support in each state so far this election season? Its biggest revelation, in our opinion, is Ohio. With its eighteen electoral college votes and working-class population, Ohio is a perennially important swing state. Obama won it by 5 percent in 2008. But as the map shows, it has a pretty low Obama donors-per-capita ratio. Every other state in Ohio’s color tier was won by John McCain except for Indiana (and nobody expects Obama to win Indiana again) and that one weird Omaha electoral vote in Nebraska. This doesn’t bode well for Obama’s chances in Ohio.
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It’s not all bad news for Obama, though. Virginia and Colorado are both in the top tier of Obama donors per capita. Even if Obama loses Ohio and Florida, carrying Colorado and Virginia would give him a very plausible path to victory. Incidentally, it would also set up a very plausible scenario for an electoral college tie. Yikes.

I’m guessing that progressive (read: sane) people in Ohio may have been a little distracted by all the local ugliness from Gov. Kasich & his fellow Kochsuckers right now. For the details of NYMag‘s methodology, click the link. I’m sure there’s all sorts of excellent details waiting to be parsed on Team Obama’s page, too.

Reader Interactions

67Comments

  1. 1.

    SiubhanDuinne

    I’m one of the million. There are 3,773 people with my name.

    ETA: Also, too, I am FIRST!

  2. 2.

    Corner Stone

    I’m sure there’s all sorts of excellent details waiting to be parsed on Team Obama’s page, too.

    There are sooo many jokes here, just waiting.

  3. 3.

    Jester

    Um, is this information Obama should be releasing? Isn’t this intelligence which the Republican candidate can use against him when making decisions about what states to invest heavily in?

  4. 4.

    Little Boots

    he’ll get reelected, and that’s better than the alternative. it’s not omg awesome, but it’s better than the alternative. and so, this is actually a good story.

  5. 5.

    MikeJ

    @Jester: Everybody already has this info and has run these questions.

    I (and everybody who cares) have the FEC data loaded into postgis along with the TIGER data. There’s nothing secret here.

  8. 8.

    WereBear (itouch)

    For instance, we’re broke. We ate frugally and skimped on Mr WereBear’s supplements to pay for our discount mattress when it became absolutely essential to replace the old one.

    We will be donating. Just not this month.

    And we are certainly better off than people without a job at all.

    So ate the Republicans plunging everyone into poverty to choke off small donor donations?

  9. 9.

    Belafon (formerly anonevent)

    It tells you which people are donating, that’s for sure. On the other hand, it does nothing to say what someone who goes to vote on election day will decide.

  11. 11.

    Delia

    So Montana and Alaska are as enthusiastic for Obama as California? I’m not quite convinced on this methodology yet.

  12. 12.

    jnfr

    We’re in Colorado and haven’t even begun giving cash or doing campaign work yet. It’s just way too early for us. Lots of space for things to change all around before Nov ’12.

  13. 13.

    Tom Q

    You know what really irks me about this article? That super-snarky “people actually believe in this president despite How Things Are”

    How Things Are is, we fought off a frickin’ meltdown, we’ve had private sector job growth for about a year and a half (masked by GOP mass layoffs in the states), we saved the auto industry, we gave health insurance to millions who didn’t have it, we allowed gays to serve openly in the military, we took out the terror leader who’d been national boogie man for a decade, ended the Iraq war, and got on (and helped win) the right side in an international uprising. No one doubts that economic weakness — weakness that could be alleviated without borderline secessionist behavior by the opposition party — is a millstone for re-election, but the bitchy phraseology used here reminds me that, among mainstream journalists, sniping at Democrats is always allowable (frickin’ sports writers used to take pot shots at Clinton), but weak-ass GOP incumbents like Barely Re-elected Bush never take the heat.

    Bu the way: if the economy rebounds merely to the level of Spring ’04, and if Perry or any of the other non-Romney crazies is the GOP candidate, Barack can bloody well win Indiana again, as well as other states no one’s even thinking about right now.

  14. 14.

    Amir Khalid

    @Little Boots:
    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Obama is undeniably a better candidate (or at least far less bad) than anyone seeking the Republican nomination. But George Walker Bush prevailed twice over Democratic candidates who would clearly have made better Presidents than he was.

  15. 15.

    Montana

    While this is akin to beating a point home with a rock, the MSM is just lazy and/or intimidated. As Dire Straits said some time ago “Money for nothing”….

  16. 16.

    Montana

    While this is akin to beating a point home with a rock, the MSM is just lazy and/or intimidated. As Dire Straits said some time ago “Money for nothing”….

  17. 17.

    Little Boots

    @Amir Khalid:

    Kerry sucked as a candidate, really, truly sucked. Al Gore was better, but people were dicks and had no idea how far the Republicans had fallen. Now they do. I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again, at least not so soon. And everyone is going to frickin hate Romney by the end. He’s another McCain. Pathetic and awful in every way.

    But you’re right overall. no relaxing. no letting up.

  20. 20.

    Raven (formerly stuckinred)

    I missed the thread about the war in Iraq ending. Must not matter I guess?

  25. 25.

    Raven (formerly stuckinred)

    @MikeJ: Just back from a day at Ft Stewart and a day at the Air Force Combat Readiness Training Center.

  26. 26.

    beltane

    Maybe people in Ohio don’t have as much money as people in Virginia at the present time. Isn’t unemployment a lot higher in OH than VA? I donated some money back in 2008; I can’t do it this time around because the money just isn’t there, or it’s there but it’s going towards heating my house this winter.

    I will still vote just as enthusiastically in 2012 as I did in 2008.

  29. 29.

    beltane

    @Little Boots: Romney is McCain without the POW experience to give him stature. Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

  31. 31.

    MikeJ

    @beltane:

    Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

    That’s called “allocating capitol more efficiently.”

  34. 34.

    soonergrunt

    @Little Boots: The major part of that is that EVERYBODY sees him as having no core value beyond getting richer and being President.
    He has no animating belief system except for ‘whatever will help me at this moment in time to get more money or more primary/electoral votes.’

  35. 35.

    zizi2

    So by their logic and calculation what should we conclude about Mitt Romney’s $14 million of which ONLY 6% was collected from small donors? while the rest came from the two Koch brothers and their fatcat minions?

    Dumb analysis (if we can call the article ‘analysis” in the first place)

  38. 38.

    Little Boots

    @soonergrunt:

    even my very conservative, Obama hating family is having a really, really hard time coming up with any reason at all to vote for Romney.

  41. 41.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @soonergrunt: I think we saw a brief glimpse of the real Mitt when he got all excited about “letting the foreclosures hit bottom” so investors could move in. Romney really is Bain Capital, it’s all he understands. I don’t think it’s so much about him getting richer, that would be pretty easy for him to do. He really thinks what’s good for Bain is good for the country. That, and the daddy issues.

  42. 42.

    Cacti

    @beltane:

    Romney is McCain without the POW experience to give him stature. Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country

    I’ve wondered the same thing.

    What single thing has Romney done in his adult life that wasn’t primarily about increasing his own personal wealth and stature?

    He’s another privileged rich who decided he had a patrician right to political office.

  44. 44.

    Mike in NC

    @beltane:

    Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

    He has what is it, five (?) strapping young buck sons who “served their country” in 2008 by working for his election. What a bunch of worthless assholes.

  48. 48.

    Violet

    @Little Boots:

    people were dicks and had no idea how far the Republicans had fallen. Now they do. I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again, at least not so soon.

    The 2010 election begs to differ.

  50. 50.

    Little Boots

    you people cannot be asleep. wake up!

    except Violet. you notice too many big holes in my argument.

    but the rest of you, where are you?

  52. 52.

    Exurban Mom

    In Ohio, we’re a little busy fighting Issue 2 and high unemployment. I’m not worried; the unions who will be out in force for Obama have other things on their plates at the moment.

  63. 63.

    SuzieC

    @Exurban Mom:
    I was about to say the exact same thing. In Ohio progressives are busy fighting the Koch/Kasich union busting agenda. When we’re done with that we’ll re-elect Pres. Obama.

  64. 64.

    mclaren

    A provocative story, to be sure, but bizarrely premature. This long before the general election, any prospective “polls” can’t be taken seriously.

    For example, what if Europe blows up and melts down financially and drags America down into a double-dip recession?

    If we’re mired in 12% unemployment come November 2012, things will look very different than they do today.

    On the other hand, suppose Europe doesn’t self-destruct finnacially and manages to pull Greece out of the hole, and then suppose America continues a slow but steady economic recovery. In that case, if unemployment were trending down in November 2012, at say, 8% and falling, once again, totally different story.

    And then there’s the story of the giant GOP effort at Democratic vote suppression. Something tells me that may be more important than any of these 14-month-early prospective voter polls.

  65. 65.

    Calouste

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    That’d be the third one in a row that the GOP puts up with daddy issues, after Bush and McCain. And the 6th time in the last 7 elections that the candidate grew up as a 1%er (Dole was the exception).

  66. 66.

    SteveInMI

    Regarding Ohio, I wonder what effect the current repeal campaigns may have on the Obama donor tallies. Given the immediacy of the SB5 repeal and related efforts, I’d assume that many Ohio progressives are pointing their checkbooks in that direction.

    I’m thinking that the true strength of Obama’s support in Ohio has to account for those donors whose money is “currently engaged elsewhere”. That may not help in terms of direct fundraising for the President, but those boots and bodies will be there for the election regardless of today’s donor count.

  67. 67.

    William Hurley

    This info doesn’t even amount to eggs, let alone potential chickens.

    With the OH’s headline unemployment rate matching that of the national average, 9.1%, Obama’s a long shot.

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