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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2012 / Predicting Votes by Counting Checks?

Predicting Votes by Counting Checks?

by Anne Laurie|  October 21, 20118:31 pm| 67 Comments

This post is in: Election 2012, Excellent Links

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For the stats dorks, Dan Amira at NYMag‘s Daily Intel raises the question “Which States Are Most Enthusiastic About Obama’s Reelection?”:

The Obama reelection campaign is very proud that it has now reached 1 million donors. As it should be! That’s a lot of people who still believe strongly in the president despite, you know, How Things Are. Yesterday, Team Obama launched a page where you can browse all kinds of information about these donors — their most common first names, for example, or what time of day they were most likely to donate. One piece of data that caught our eye was the number of individual donors from each state. This, we thought, could actually serve as a pretty useful indicator of which state is most enthusiastic about Obama’s reelection. A poll can tell you how many people say they plan to vote for Obama, but words are not as important as deeds, and actually donating money is a clear signal of not just support, but passion and motivation…
__
So, what does the map indicate about the intensity of Obama support in each state so far this election season? Its biggest revelation, in our opinion, is Ohio. With its eighteen electoral college votes and working-class population, Ohio is a perennially important swing state. Obama won it by 5 percent in 2008. But as the map shows, it has a pretty low Obama donors-per-capita ratio. Every other state in Ohio’s color tier was won by John McCain except for Indiana (and nobody expects Obama to win Indiana again) and that one weird Omaha electoral vote in Nebraska. This doesn’t bode well for Obama’s chances in Ohio.
__
It’s not all bad news for Obama, though. Virginia and Colorado are both in the top tier of Obama donors per capita. Even if Obama loses Ohio and Florida, carrying Colorado and Virginia would give him a very plausible path to victory. Incidentally, it would also set up a very plausible scenario for an electoral college tie. Yikes.

I’m guessing that progressive (read: sane) people in Ohio may have been a little distracted by all the local ugliness from Gov. Kasich & his fellow Kochsuckers right now. For the details of NYMag‘s methodology, click the link. I’m sure there’s all sorts of excellent details waiting to be parsed on Team Obama’s page, too.

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67Comments

  1. 1.

    SiubhanDuinne

    October 21, 2011 at 8:38 pm

    I’m one of the million. There are 3,773 people with my name.

    ETA: Also, too, I am FIRST!

  2. 2.

    Corner Stone

    October 21, 2011 at 8:40 pm

    I’m sure there’s all sorts of excellent details waiting to be parsed on Team Obama’s page, too.

    There are sooo many jokes here, just waiting.

  3. 3.

    Jester

    October 21, 2011 at 8:42 pm

    Um, is this information Obama should be releasing? Isn’t this intelligence which the Republican candidate can use against him when making decisions about what states to invest heavily in?

  4. 4.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 8:43 pm

    he’ll get reelected, and that’s better than the alternative. it’s not omg awesome, but it’s better than the alternative. and so, this is actually a good story.

  5. 5.

    MikeJ

    October 21, 2011 at 8:51 pm

    @Jester: Everybody already has this info and has run these questions.

    I (and everybody who cares) have the FEC data loaded into postgis along with the TIGER data. There’s nothing secret here.

  6. 6.

    Gilles de Rais

    October 21, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    A tie is a loss – House of Representatives calls it in the event of a tie. Not OK.

  7. 7.

    Gilles de Rais

    October 21, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    A tie is a loss – House of Representatives calls it in the event of a tie. Not OK.

  8. 8.

    WereBear (itouch)

    October 21, 2011 at 8:52 pm

    For instance, we’re broke. We ate frugally and skimped on Mr WereBear’s supplements to pay for our discount mattress when it became absolutely essential to replace the old one.

    We will be donating. Just not this month.

    And we are certainly better off than people without a job at all.

    So ate the Republicans plunging everyone into poverty to choke off small donor donations?

  9. 9.

    Belafon (formerly anonevent)

    October 21, 2011 at 8:54 pm

    It tells you which people are donating, that’s for sure. On the other hand, it does nothing to say what someone who goes to vote on election day will decide.

  10. 10.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    Obama’s gonna win this thing. the Republicans just suck too much.

  11. 11.

    Delia

    October 21, 2011 at 9:00 pm

    So Montana and Alaska are as enthusiastic for Obama as California? I’m not quite convinced on this methodology yet.

  12. 12.

    jnfr

    October 21, 2011 at 9:06 pm

    We’re in Colorado and haven’t even begun giving cash or doing campaign work yet. It’s just way too early for us. Lots of space for things to change all around before Nov ’12.

  13. 13.

    Tom Q

    October 21, 2011 at 9:09 pm

    You know what really irks me about this article? That super-snarky “people actually believe in this president despite How Things Are”

    How Things Are is, we fought off a frickin’ meltdown, we’ve had private sector job growth for about a year and a half (masked by GOP mass layoffs in the states), we saved the auto industry, we gave health insurance to millions who didn’t have it, we allowed gays to serve openly in the military, we took out the terror leader who’d been national boogie man for a decade, ended the Iraq war, and got on (and helped win) the right side in an international uprising. No one doubts that economic weakness — weakness that could be alleviated without borderline secessionist behavior by the opposition party — is a millstone for re-election, but the bitchy phraseology used here reminds me that, among mainstream journalists, sniping at Democrats is always allowable (frickin’ sports writers used to take pot shots at Clinton), but weak-ass GOP incumbents like Barely Re-elected Bush never take the heat.

    Bu the way: if the economy rebounds merely to the level of Spring ’04, and if Perry or any of the other non-Romney crazies is the GOP candidate, Barack can bloody well win Indiana again, as well as other states no one’s even thinking about right now.

  14. 14.

    Amir Khalid

    October 21, 2011 at 9:13 pm

    @Little Boots:
    Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. Obama is undeniably a better candidate (or at least far less bad) than anyone seeking the Republican nomination. But George Walker Bush prevailed twice over Democratic candidates who would clearly have made better Presidents than he was.

  15. 15.

    Montana

    October 21, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    While this is akin to beating a point home with a rock, the MSM is just lazy and/or intimidated. As Dire Straits said some time ago “Money for nothing”….

  16. 16.

    Montana

    October 21, 2011 at 9:15 pm

    While this is akin to beating a point home with a rock, the MSM is just lazy and/or intimidated. As Dire Straits said some time ago “Money for nothing”….

  17. 17.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 9:17 pm

    @Amir Khalid:

    Kerry sucked as a candidate, really, truly sucked. Al Gore was better, but people were dicks and had no idea how far the Republicans had fallen. Now they do. I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again, at least not so soon. And everyone is going to frickin hate Romney by the end. He’s another McCain. Pathetic and awful in every way.

    But you’re right overall. no relaxing. no letting up.

  18. 18.

    steviez314

    October 21, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    I’m just curious how that compares to 2008. Maybe Ohio is always a tightwad state.

  19. 19.

    steviez314

    October 21, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    I’m just curious how that compares to 2008. Maybe Ohio is always a tightwad state.

  20. 20.

    Raven (formerly stuckinred)

    October 21, 2011 at 9:18 pm

    I missed the thread about the war in Iraq ending. Must not matter I guess?

  21. 21.

    arguingwithsignposts

    October 21, 2011 at 9:19 pm

    @Raven (formerly stuckinred): scroll down.

  22. 22.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 9:20 pm

    @Raven (formerly stuckinred): Dude.

  23. 23.

    MikeJ

    October 21, 2011 at 9:24 pm

    @Raven (formerly stuckinred): Being 8.5 hours late means you just don’t care about it.

  24. 24.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 9:26 pm

    but when will the Libya war …

    oh wait, nevermind.

  25. 25.

    Raven (formerly stuckinred)

    October 21, 2011 at 9:26 pm

    @MikeJ: Just back from a day at Ft Stewart and a day at the Air Force Combat Readiness Training Center.

  26. 26.

    beltane

    October 21, 2011 at 9:27 pm

    Maybe people in Ohio don’t have as much money as people in Virginia at the present time. Isn’t unemployment a lot higher in OH than VA? I donated some money back in 2008; I can’t do it this time around because the money just isn’t there, or it’s there but it’s going towards heating my house this winter.

    I will still vote just as enthusiastically in 2012 as I did in 2008.

  27. 27.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 9:29 pm

    @beltane:

    good point.

  28. 28.

    mikefromArlington

    October 21, 2011 at 9:29 pm

    http://liberalvaluesblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/Obama-Mission-Accomplished.jpg

  29. 29.

    beltane

    October 21, 2011 at 9:38 pm

    @Little Boots: Romney is McCain without the POW experience to give him stature. Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

  30. 30.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 9:40 pm

    @beltane:

    No. I really don’t think anyone can. I don’t think he’ll wear well, at all.

  31. 31.

    MikeJ

    October 21, 2011 at 9:50 pm

    @beltane:

    Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

    That’s called “allocating capitol more efficiently.”

  32. 32.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 9:55 pm

    no new doug thread? the hell?

  33. 33.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 9:59 pm

    @Little Boots: Just sayin’.

  34. 34.

    soonergrunt

    October 21, 2011 at 10:01 pm

    @Little Boots: The major part of that is that EVERYBODY sees him as having no core value beyond getting richer and being President.
    He has no animating belief system except for ‘whatever will help me at this moment in time to get more money or more primary/electoral votes.’

  35. 35.

    zizi2

    October 21, 2011 at 10:01 pm

    So by their logic and calculation what should we conclude about Mitt Romney’s $14 million of which ONLY 6% was collected from small donors? while the rest came from the two Koch brothers and their fatcat minions?

    Dumb analysis (if we can call the article ‘analysis” in the first place)

  36. 36.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:01 pm

    was starting to like him.

  37. 37.

    AliceBlue

    October 21, 2011 at 10:02 pm

    I can’t stand to hear Romney talk. He always sounds like he’s on the verge of hyperventilating.

  38. 38.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:03 pm

    @soonergrunt:

    even my very conservative, Obama hating family is having a really, really hard time coming up with any reason at all to vote for Romney.

  39. 39.

    jwb

    October 21, 2011 at 10:04 pm

    @Montana: The MSM is well compensated and doing exactly what its owners’ want.

  40. 40.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:04 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: Fucking moderation.

  41. 41.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    October 21, 2011 at 10:08 pm

    @soonergrunt: I think we saw a brief glimpse of the real Mitt when he got all excited about “letting the foreclosures hit bottom” so investors could move in. Romney really is Bain Capital, it’s all he understands. I don’t think it’s so much about him getting richer, that would be pretty easy for him to do. He really thinks what’s good for Bain is good for the country. That, and the daddy issues.

  42. 42.

    Cacti

    October 21, 2011 at 10:09 pm

    @beltane:

    Romney is McCain without the POW experience to give him stature. Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country

    I’ve wondered the same thing.

    What single thing has Romney done in his adult life that wasn’t primarily about increasing his own personal wealth and stature?

    He’s another privileged rich who decided he had a patrician right to political office.

  43. 43.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:13 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    ohmigod. thanks, Omnes.

  44. 44.

    Mike in NC

    October 21, 2011 at 10:13 pm

    @beltane:

    Can anyone think of a single god-damned thing Mitt Romney has ever done to serve his country? Stealing people’s jobs and shipping them overseas doesn’t count as serving his country.

    He has what is it, five (?) strapping young buck sons who “served their country” in 2008 by working for his election. What a bunch of worthless assholes.

  45. 45.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:15 pm

    @Little Boots: De rien. It is a classic.

  46. 46.

    soonergrunt

    October 21, 2011 at 10:15 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus: how does it work?

  47. 47.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:17 pm

    @soonergrunt: I think it involves magnets.

  48. 48.

    Violet

    October 21, 2011 at 10:19 pm

    @Little Boots:

    people were dicks and had no idea how far the Republicans had fallen. Now they do. I don’t think they’ll make that mistake again, at least not so soon.

    The 2010 election begs to differ.

  49. 49.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:21 pm

    @Violet:

    fair enough.

    but if THAT didn’t wake people up, nothing will.

  50. 50.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:29 pm

    you people cannot be asleep. wake up!

    except Violet. you notice too many big holes in my argument.

    but the rest of you, where are you?

  51. 51.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:30 pm

    @Little Boots: Listening to this.

  52. 52.

    Exurban Mom

    October 21, 2011 at 10:35 pm

    In Ohio, we’re a little busy fighting Issue 2 and high unemployment. I’m not worried; the unions who will be out in force for Obama have other things on their plates at the moment.

  53. 53.

    Linda Featheringill

    October 21, 2011 at 10:37 pm

    BTW, dkos did a poll in Ohio, with results up now.

  54. 54.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:38 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    again, thank you, Omnes. You are on a roll, man.

    do you think Walker is doomed, by the way?

  55. 55.

    soonergrunt

    October 21, 2011 at 10:38 pm

    @Linda Featheringill: Well, don’t make us go over there…

  56. 56.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:41 pm

    @Little Boots: Given where I am now working, I am not supposed to be involved in partisan state or local races so I should avoid answering. Sorry.

  57. 57.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:43 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    really? that’s pretty intriguing itself.

    but I will respect that and not ask you again.

  58. 58.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:49 pm

    @Little Boots: Not as intriguing as it sounds. I just have to focus my attention on national races.

  59. 59.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:52 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    now, dammit, that’s even more intriguing.

    I just thought you were some bureaucrat. oh well.

  60. 60.

    Omnes Omnibus

    October 21, 2011 at 10:53 pm

    @Little Boots: I am. I am not even an important one.

  61. 61.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:59 pm

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    oooh, undermining from within.

    I like it.

    Okay, I’ll stop.

  62. 62.

    Little Boots

    October 21, 2011 at 10:59 pm

    still want to know what you predict, but you probably should not say.

  63. 63.

    SuzieC

    October 21, 2011 at 11:14 pm

    @Exurban Mom:
    I was about to say the exact same thing. In Ohio progressives are busy fighting the Koch/Kasich union busting agenda. When we’re done with that we’ll re-elect Pres. Obama.

  64. 64.

    mclaren

    October 21, 2011 at 11:33 pm

    A provocative story, to be sure, but bizarrely premature. This long before the general election, any prospective “polls” can’t be taken seriously.

    For example, what if Europe blows up and melts down financially and drags America down into a double-dip recession?

    If we’re mired in 12% unemployment come November 2012, things will look very different than they do today.

    On the other hand, suppose Europe doesn’t self-destruct finnacially and manages to pull Greece out of the hole, and then suppose America continues a slow but steady economic recovery. In that case, if unemployment were trending down in November 2012, at say, 8% and falling, once again, totally different story.

    And then there’s the story of the giant GOP effort at Democratic vote suppression. Something tells me that may be more important than any of these 14-month-early prospective voter polls.

  65. 65.

    Calouste

    October 22, 2011 at 12:14 am

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    That’d be the third one in a row that the GOP puts up with daddy issues, after Bush and McCain. And the 6th time in the last 7 elections that the candidate grew up as a 1%er (Dole was the exception).

  66. 66.

    SteveInMI

    October 22, 2011 at 5:18 am

    Regarding Ohio, I wonder what effect the current repeal campaigns may have on the Obama donor tallies. Given the immediacy of the SB5 repeal and related efforts, I’d assume that many Ohio progressives are pointing their checkbooks in that direction.

    I’m thinking that the true strength of Obama’s support in Ohio has to account for those donors whose money is “currently engaged elsewhere”. That may not help in terms of direct fundraising for the President, but those boots and bodies will be there for the election regardless of today’s donor count.

  67. 67.

    William Hurley

    October 22, 2011 at 5:37 pm

    This info doesn’t even amount to eggs, let alone potential chickens.

    With the OH’s headline unemployment rate matching that of the national average, 9.1%, Obama’s a long shot.

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