PPP thinks that Newt is going to take Herman’s spot if Herman’s scandals tank his campaign. Larry Sabato’s observes that Iowa and New Hampshire have historically been surprise states, so who knows? The combination of the fickleness of the Tea Party and the fecklessness of the other candidates could mean that Newt will get his few minutes in the frontrunner spotlight. But if Herman’s scandals from the 90’s and his inability to run even the faintest ghost of a competent campaign in 2011 are going to sink his boat, Newt will certainly follow him to the bottom in a few short weeks.
The only thing that’s been consistent in the Republican race is that being the Tea Party crush object is a sure sign that your campaign is about to implode. If Newt doesn’t get his few moments to bask in the glow of TP adoration, I wonder if Huntsman will say something or other palatable enough for the teabaggers to write “Mrs. Jon Huntsman” on their Lisa Frank folders. And if Huntsman does get his bump, I even more curious to know which skeleton Karl Rove and Rick Perry will pull out of his closet.
Baud
Why would Rove undermine Huntsman? I thought Rove’s main concern is who can beat Obama in the general, rather than any particular love of Mitt.
zmulls
I predicted this a couple weeks ago — I even said it to my wife last night (I did, she’ll corroborate!)
Who else is there for the Not Romney crowd? They want to love Perry but his swagger can’t cover up what an incompetent campaigner he is. Cain was never in it to win it — he’s showboating to sell books and get a huge radio gig. And the true believers are going to split down the middle between cutting him loose and wanting to defend him ‘gainst the libruls to the last breath.
Newt is tried and true. He’s willing to say anything and do anything to win. He will smear Obama right, left, up, down and sideways. He will pander to the Tea Party like nobody’s bidness. And, for reasons unknown to me, he is still treated as a Serious Person by the Sunday talk show crowd.
Newt will have a boomlet as Cain implodes. The question is whether he peaks in time for the first few primaries, or whether he implodes too before then.
mistermix
@Baud: Good point, I should have just said Perry, because it’s looking an awful lot like the Perry campaign knew about Herman’s harassment charges.
MattF
Except that… Newt is really repulsive. Really really really really repulsive. ‘Death wish’ repulsive. ‘Puke on your TV’ repulsive. He may get his fifteen nanoseconds of serious consideration from the Village, but it’s just not believable.
SiubhanDuinne
The skeleton in Huntsman’s closet is that he was part of the Obama administration, and Obama said some nice things about him. He’s doomed.
DougJ
Good title!
Samara Morgan
@zmulls: Newt CAN win!
Christine O’Donnell said a lawngnome can beat Obama in 2012.
Samara Morgan
@DougJ: or….the Return of Sarah Palin
Samara Morgan
@MattF: hes cute in a sense. He just needs the beard and the hat.
He can get lots of sully-coverage if he grows a beard, too.
JGabriel
Maybe some people will find this counter-intuitive, but if Herman drops out, I think Bachmann will be the first to benefit.
Perry looks more clownish with each day, whereas Bachmann’s negatives probably can’t go much lower. Bachmann also has a ground operation in Iowa, where she was born, and she was doing very well there until Perry stepped in.
So I think a number of Iowa fundies will return to Bachmann if Cain folds.
.
Drive-by Nomad
@DougJ:
Diana Ross for Prez!
Jay C
@zmulls:
Minor edit:
Also, besides his general loathsomeness, Newt Gingrich is just like SO 1998: the guy’s time in the spotlight passed a decade ago, leaving behind a record of astonishing political counter-productivity.
Great slogan for a campaign, though:
Newt Gingrich!! Yesterday’s Man Of Tomorrow!!
arguingwithsignposts
@MattF: Newt gets some serious love from the commenters at Erick Son of Erick’s Red House of Fail, but the sky is blue here in reality. I don’t know what color it is in the universe they inhabit.
cleek
to Newt’s benefit, he comes pre-scandalized.
ned
It’s looking less and less like the Krazy Klown Kar, and more and more like the Krazy Klown Karrousel.
I love that each of these dipshits gets five minutes to demonstrate how completely unsuitable they are for the job of county dogcatcher.
jayjaybear
“Lisa Frank folders”
This may be the perfect metaphor for the school-girl fickleness of the Republican primary electorate. Well done, mistermix!
Zifnab
I’m curious to know what, exactly, is keeping Ron Paul back other than a generalized media blackout. Does the mainstream GOP really hate that guy as much as they hate Romney? I was sure he was going to break out at some point. He’s got money and a rabidly dedicated base, and you think he’d play well in New Hampshire of all places.
Steve
I’m sort of surprised Newt’s negatives have persisted for so long. Of course he’s loathsome on many levels, but political memories are short, and there can’t be that many people who have concrete recollections of what he did that was so wrong. I wonder what sets him apart.
Oh God it burns...
Earlier in the season Newt was being heckled and confronted by angry tea partiers in Iowa. Now they’re going to embrace him. Fickle bunch.
Rita R.
The Republican primary pre-season is over folks. Tune back in once the voting starts.
Either the GOP mouth-breathers suck it up, hold their noses, ask Jesus for forgiveness and nominate Romney, thereby having a shot at possibly, maybe unseating Obama, or they self-immolate and go with one of the other fools and charlatans (not mutually exclusive) running and Obama landslides to Term 2.
Which of the seven (or is it eight?)non-Romney dwarves it would be doesn’t matter. So the rest of the show from now until Iowa — Sexytime Cain! Gingrich! Perry if the wizard gives him a brain! Bachmann again! — is all sound and fury.
different-church-lady
The real surprise will be when Kerry takes Iowa.
Ben Cisco
@ned:
So, it’s like speed-dating for the deranged?
Ben Cisco
@Zifnab:
His monetary policy – even the dunderheads that make up the NeoConfederate base know that he’s a loon on that subject and that he cannot win an election on that basis alone.
catclub
Newt is similar to Giuliani in that he is most popular before he starts to campaign, then people really start to hate him. So I do not see a newt Gingrich boom.
I think that, to the GOP primary voters ( that self selected bunch o’crazy) Cain is likeable enough that they will ignore his problems. He will not crash and burn.
I think the Bachmann in Iowa meme has a chance also. Ground game matters.
catclub
@Ben Cisco: I disagree.
It is insufficient support ( hell, insufficient cheerleading) for killing brown people overseas.
The GOPers hear that he is against foreign wars and draw a complete blank.
zmulls
The Newt narrative is Nixon 1968 – he went out in disgrace, wandered in the wilderness, and now he’s back to win it all!
David in NY
@cleek:
Never know. Cf. Bill Clinton, 1992, 1998.
Hawes
I think a Newt boomlet is plausible. And he might benefit from timing, if he can hold off the inevitable popping of the bubble until after Iowa.
Newt appeals to Teatards and their desire for “ideas”. Yes, his “ideas” are retrograde and repulsive. So are Paul Ryan’s and they can’t get enough of them.
Newt is about as well positioned as McCain was four years ago. Solid pro, establishment approved, heresies and problems in his past, terrible spring to his campaign, monochromatic trophy wife…
Clearly, it’s a case of musical chairs. If you’re the flavor of the month when Iowa happens, you stand a good chance of winning.
Steve M.
We’re dealing with voters if the Proud to Be Stupid Party, so that’s a pretty big if. Remember, Cain is still leading until we hear otherwise.
Never happen. Bet the house on that. Huntsman seems to be trying to alienate winger voters every chance he gets, plus he’s kind of an arrogant, unlikeable jerk to boot. The only way his campaign makes sense is if he invested a million dollars shorting himself on Intrade, and now he’s pulling a Producers.
Brachiator
@mistermix: By the way, has “The Cain Scrutiny” been used as a thread title yet?
Or until there is some actual primary voting, whichever comes first.
r€nato
the amusing part of all this (if you’re a Democrat) is that in about 6 months, when Mitt Romney ends up as the nominee after all, Republicans will have wasted significant amounts of money, time and prestige over flavor-of-the-month candidates who were clearly, plainly, obviously unfit to run a national campaign for the office of the President, let alone actually occupy the office.
Republican infatuations with Palin, Trump, Perry and Cain merely serve to reinforce the idea that as much as they dislike Obama, they’ve got nothing better to offer. Meanwhile… Obama is amassing a gigantic warchest for the general election.
Ben Cisco
@catclub: Well, yeah, that too.
catclub
@Hawes: “Newt is about as well positioned as McCain was four years ago.”
Campaign organization in shambles. No Money coming in.
Campaigner who will not campaign.
People hate him more, the more he campaigns. Not a winning trend. Much more like Giuliani.
xian
@r€nato: agreed. though I’d love me some Cain or Newt or Palin in the general, my fall-back wish is a severely damaged Romney tied to extreme Tea positions from a brutal primary.
r€nato
I’ll add that Cain’s mishandling of sexual harassment allegations proves that he’s unfit for the presidency. He knew this was coming, nearly two weeks ago. And he did… nothing. On top of that, he made the situation worse by disparaging one of his victims, who is now demanding to be allowed to tell her side of the story.
At least two major unforced errors already, just on this issue. Is *this* the guy who should be taking the call at 3am?
handy
@r€nato:
None of the GOP morans are ready for the 3 am call. After all we had a guy for eight years who clearly wasn’t. But Cain’s handling of this shows he doesn’t even have Shrub’s political skills.
Cat Lady
Republican brother in Massachusetts voted for McCain and likes Newt. Yes, LIKES Newt. Newt.Gingrich.
Rome Again
There really IS a God! :P
Rome Again
@zmulls:
Yup! However…
Not so fast there,buddy! Newt’s not only selling books, but VIDEOS too!
Rome Again
@r€nato:
Hilarious, isn’t it?
Rome Again
@xian:
Your order will be ready soon, sir! ::wink::
Barry
@Zifnab: Ron Paul benefits from the lack of attention, just like each Tea Party favorite did, when they were a potential candidate.
Mistermix: “The only thing that’s been consistent in the Republican race is that being the Tea Party crush object is a sure sign that your campaign is about to implode. ”
Really, the only consistent thing is that Mitt continues as the others peak and crash. That’s his plan, to be the guy who just keeps on truckin’, and to just pick up votes in the primaries. Until that day when either he has the winning total, or he has close to it, while a half-dozen Tea Party favorites each have a handful.
Chuck Butcher
Well…
Rome Again
@Chuck Butcher:
That’s an interesting comparison. Funny, Reality Check told me yesterday that Tea Party types are going to vote for Romney (whom he supports) because they have no other choice.
When you compare Romney for the R’s to Lieberman for the D’s, I can honestly say there is NO WAY I would pull a lever for Lieberman. I think Reality Check is wrong.