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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Sovereignty is a Dated Concept

Sovereignty is a Dated Concept

by @heymistermix.com|  November 3, 201110:15 am| 92 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs

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I assume this is a bad translation, but Greece’s Finance Minister just said this:

Greece’s position within the euro area is a historic conquest of the country that cannot be put in doubt.

The real news of that communique is that there’s an open revolt going on within Papandreou’s government, and his finance minister says that the referendum shouldn’t be held.

(Thanks to jayackroyd for sending this in.)

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Reader Interactions

92Comments

  1. 1.

    eemom

    November 3, 2011 at 10:18 am

    Latest report is that Papandreou is going to resign.

  2. 2.

    Redshift

    November 3, 2011 at 10:19 am

    I’ve been wondering for weeks now how the various Eurozone governments are resolving the cognitive dissonance of:
    1. Not having political and economic-policy integration and not having a central bank that can actually do what a central bank does because of “national sovereignty,” while,
    2. Openly dictating legislation for member governments to pass in defiance of the will of the people they represent.

  3. 3.

    Zifnab

    November 3, 2011 at 10:21 am

    Isn’t Papandreou supposed to be the soci alist in this mix? I was a bit shocked he was ready to bend over to the foreign bankers to begin with. Why they haven’t followed the Iceland model continues to confuse me.

  4. 4.

    kindness

    November 3, 2011 at 10:22 am

    Papandreou is goin’ down and not in the good way.

    @Redshift: One thing that bothers me is that this whole thing isn’t about saving Greece so much as saving the banks that loaned Greece the money. It’s a bait and switch/3 card monty operation. No one is talking about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room.

  5. 5.

    Oh God it burns...

    November 3, 2011 at 10:22 am

    If only the Persians had known that the best way to conquer Greece was to lend money to it, history would have turned out a bit differently.

  6. 6.

    cathyx

    November 3, 2011 at 10:24 am

    Here’s a really good, easy to understand write up about what is going on in Greece right now:

    http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2011/11/conversation-about-greece

  7. 7.

    ornery

    November 3, 2011 at 10:26 am

    It is not ‘Greek’ debt but Greek BANK debt … sometimes the media forgets to make this clear.

  8. 8.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 3, 2011 at 10:27 am

    Sovereignty is the only English word to contain the letters “g-n-t” in that order.

  9. 9.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    November 3, 2011 at 10:34 am

    What scares the bankers, if the Greeks say FU, then it will spread to Spain, Italy and Portugal for starters. I wonder if the Europeans read about the Icelandic People, because didn’t they do the same thing?

  10. 10.

    The Moar You Know

    November 3, 2011 at 10:34 am

    Hey, fuck those Greeks. Why should they get to vote on a measure that will ruin their quality of life for generations? It’s not like they have a tradition of democracy or anything.

    Better that such decisions be made by people who know what’s best for the producers and creators, not by the moochers, who will just want to leech more money from their Galtian masters.

  11. 11.

    beergoggles

    November 3, 2011 at 10:35 am

    What no bitch session about the new look for gmail? ;)

  12. 12.

    4tehlulz

    November 3, 2011 at 10:36 am

    Referendum cancelled, per Guardian

  13. 13.

    Chris

    November 3, 2011 at 10:36 am

    @Zifnab:

    I don’t know much about Greece, but whenever you hear the word “socialist” in reference to a political party, don’t take it at face value. Dominique Strauss-Kahn was a Socialist, and he was also the head of the IMF, neck-deep in modern international capitalism. They’re just names.

    Near as I can tell, “Socialist” in Europe is pretty close to “Democrat” over here. Although they have the benefit of working in a system where the political center, economically at least, is noticeably to the left of ours.

  14. 14.

    MattF

    November 3, 2011 at 10:37 am

    One thing to note is that Greece is really an itsy-bitsy country with an economy that is a rounding error in the euro zone– population of 11 million, two percent of the eurozone GDP. I understand that leverage is an amazing thing, but the fact that Greece has managed to endanger the global economy says something about the fragility of the whole business.

  15. 15.

    Chris

    November 3, 2011 at 10:38 am

    @Zifnab:

    God, I’m an idiot. I forgot the S word was banned and am now in moderation.

    Anyway – I don’t know much about Greece, but whenever you hear the word “soshulist” in reference to a political party, don’t take it at face value. Dominique Strauss-Kahn was a Soshulist, and he was also the head of the IMF, neck-deep in modern international capitalism. They’re just names.

    Near as I can tell, “Soshulist” in Europe is pretty close to “Democrat” over here. Although they have the benefit of working in a system where the political center, economically at least, is noticeably to the left of ours.

  16. 16.

    ned

    November 3, 2011 at 10:40 am

    @MattF:
    I think that’s what they meant by entering the euro in the first place being a conquest *for* Greece (not “of Greece”). It really was a coup on their part, sustained only through shady national accounting in the first place.

  17. 17.

    arguingwithsignposts

    November 3, 2011 at 10:44 am

    @kindness:

    One thing that bothers me is that this whole thing isn’t about saving Greece so much as saving the banks that loaned Greece the money. It’s a bait and switch/3 card monty operation. No one is talking about the 800 lb. gorilla in the room.

    Oh, plenty of people are talking about it. If I’ve heard of it, the entire financial universe knows it. The problem is, the people standing in front of the microphones don’t dare mention it in public.

  18. 18.

    Punchy

    November 3, 2011 at 10:44 am

    Doesn’t this deal pretty much make Greece a suburb of Berlin?

  19. 19.

    Walker

    November 3, 2011 at 10:46 am

    @Mr Stagger Lee:

    I wonder if the Europeans read about the Icelandic People, because didn’t they do the same thing?

    Iceland was never on the Euro; there was no Euro to leave. All they did was default, which is easier when you have your own currency.

  20. 20.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 10:53 am

    @cathyx: Here’s another good synopsis, one that I’m going to use to mail to my family and friends who keep asking me what’s going on in Greece.

    Incidentally, here’s Atrios’s response to that Kevin Drum piece (via Digby) the other day:

    I’m not saying there are no downsides, but nobody has to actually lose any money. Greece can default, the ECB can just give the banks free money, and we can go on mostly like nothing happened. There are issues with the free money proposal, but there are issues with every other proposal too.

    It’s not that it’s necessarily the only valid viewpoint or that everyone has to agree with it, but what’s amazing is how virtually no one, in the scheme of things, will even voice this sort of thing and certainly no one in a position to do so will actually consider doing it.

    More and more Duncan’s “We are ruled by (truly stupid people, horrible people, morons, etc)” seems to sum it up for me.

    On the other hand, ECB actually lowered interest rates, so in a pinprick in the right direction sort of way, good.

    This book by the way is the most important one I’ve read all year. Probably in the last several years. It’s put all this in yet another perspective.

  21. 21.

    burnspbesq

    November 3, 2011 at 10:53 am

    Greeks are not dramatically different from Californians. They want services, but aren’t willing to pay taxes. That arithmetic inevitably crashes and burns. It’s only a matter of time, and of who suffers most in the aftermath.

  22. 22.

    Brachiator

    November 3, 2011 at 10:57 am

    @Zifnab:

    Isn’t Papandreou supposed to be the soci alist in this mix? I was a bit shocked he was ready to bend over to the foreign bankers to begin with. Why they haven’t followed the Iceland model continues to confuse me.

    Maybe because they are not entirely stupid (apart from the fact that Iceland is not on the Euro, which would make defiance more difficult).

    And maybe it’s because it is not just a matter of standing up to foreign bankers. Greece wanted to have it both ways, using the Euro to shore up internal weaknesses, especially an insanely inefficient tax system. There are estimates that at least 25% of Greece’s GDP is from the “shadow economy”:

    When they analyzed Europe’s “shadow economies” — defined as areas that fall beyond the reach of the taxman — those of Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal were much larger (relatively) than those in northern Europe.
    __
    That is partly because of the higher number of self-employed and family businesses, which tend to deal in cash and pay little tax. But to many economic commentators, tax evasion is also a national pastime in much of southern Europe, and a significant factor in the region’s burgeoning financial crisis.
    __
    According to a 2007 paper by Austrian economist Friedrich Schneider, the shadow economy in Italy accounted for 22.3% of gross domestic product (GDP), that of Spain 19.3%; Portugal 19.2% and Greece a staggering 25.1%. By comparison, the U.S. shadow economy was 7.2% of GDP. A recent European Union report came up with similar figures.

    I imagine that a number of the Tea Party People would love to model America on the Greece example.

  23. 23.

    arguingwithsignposts

    November 3, 2011 at 10:59 am

    Post needs updating. Apparently, Papandreou has called off the referendum. (BBC)

    ETA: beaten by #12, I see

  24. 24.

    ned

    November 3, 2011 at 11:01 am

    @Punchy: Wasn’t it already?

  25. 25.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2011 at 11:05 am

    @Gin & Tonic: “gnat”

    That was a little too easy.

  26. 26.

    catclub

    November 3, 2011 at 11:05 am

    @Gin & Tonic: what about the abbreviation for a certain mixed drink? That is even better than an English _word_.

  27. 27.

    Dave

    November 3, 2011 at 11:08 am

    The Greeks have two other problems: a horrendously corrupt system of government and the Greek Orthodox Church playing an oversized role in the economy. The GOC is not only the largest landholder in Greece (which renders all that land and the businesses upon them tax-free) but their priests are considered government employees and get paid by the government.

    Combine those two problems to all their other ones and even if the Euro countries bail out Greece, there is nothing to suggest they wouldn’t find themselves here again in a few years time.

    It may hurt, but the best plan is to forgive the debt 100% and ease Greece out of the Euro zone. Then the Greeks can go back to the drachma, devalue the Hell out of it and get back on track.

  28. 28.

    jwb

    November 3, 2011 at 11:10 am

    @Chris: Germans are about to find out that they (or rather their banks) are not at all the innocents in all this. Choice is bail out the Eurozone periphery or bail out their banks. And it’s not at all clear which option is cheaper. I also wonder what the US bank exposure is if, as seems increasingly likely, the Euro goes down.

  29. 29.

    catclub

    November 3, 2011 at 11:11 am

    @kindness: I still think that this is the best possible solution for Papandreou. He would go down to the eternal wrath of the populace if he agrees to these conditions, and is the heavy who actually has to impose them on the Greek public. So, instead he goes down because the Powers that Be decide he has to go.

    He can come back in a few years.

  30. 30.

    Dave

    November 3, 2011 at 11:12 am

    Here’s another question: if the Euro looks shaky, that would probably move more money back into the dollar, right? I bet the bond market here isn’t too upset over this…

  31. 31.

    handsmile

    November 3, 2011 at 11:13 am

    According to the Guardian’s live blog on the Greek debt crisis (noted by 4tehlulz #12 above), at an emergency meeting today of the Greek cabinet, George Papandreou and his ministers have agreed to suspend the plebiscite on the EU/IMf bailout that had been proposed for early December.

    (Undoubtedly their decision was “greased” [sorry] by yesterday’s IMF announcement that a scheduled release of 8+B euros in bailout funds would be withheld unless there was a “Yes” vote on the referendum.)

    Also, Papandreou will NOT be resigning as prime minister, but a vote of confidence in his government will go ahead tomorrow in the Greek parliament. It is a foregone conclusion that Papandreou and his PASOK (socialist) party will lose and negotiations are now underway with the opposition New Democracy party (politically conservative) to form a coalition government.

    Crucially, the opposition leader Antonis Samaris has declared today his support of the EU/IMF bailout which he had previously denounced. Heavily pressured to do so by Merkel, Sarkozy, and the IMF, this reversal paves the way for the establishment of a New Democracy/PASOK coalition. In turn, this provides more can-kicking time for the provisions of the Greek (bank) bailout/Eurozone stabilization package to be implemented.

    cathyx (#6): Thanks for the Mother Jones link. Yes, a helpful primer on the issue.

  32. 32.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 3, 2011 at 11:18 am

    @Poopyman: I meant in direct succession. Sorry.

  33. 33.

    Gin & Tonic

    November 3, 2011 at 11:19 am

    @catclub: I have no idea what you mean.

    Heh.

  34. 34.

    Brachiator

    November 3, 2011 at 11:21 am

    @jwb:

    I also wonder what the US bank exposure is if, as seems increasingly likely, the Euro goes down.

    Very small compared to that of France, Germany and the UK.

    A good chart on this is included here.

  35. 35.

    handy

    November 3, 2011 at 11:21 am

    @burnspbesq:

    Do the Greeks have John and Ken for their afternoon drive to deflect and distract as well?

  36. 36.

    PeakVT

    November 3, 2011 at 11:22 am

    I still can’t see how Greece stays in the Euro. Unless it only needs a teeny tiny little bit of deflation to become “competitive” the recession there is going to drag on for years. And the country has already seen three years of economic contraction. Maybe the government can be kept solvent despite the contraction, but how do vast numbers of citizens and businesses avoid bankruptcy as their incomes go down and their debt burdens go up?

    The EU and ECB and IMF must be entitled to some math that I’m not privy to…

  37. 37.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2011 at 11:23 am

    @Dave: Well, the Dow doesn’t seem to care this AM. Up over 126 points at the moment. Of course, the markets have gone from “irrational exuberance” to downright manic depressive episodes.

  38. 38.

    Lurking Canadian

    November 3, 2011 at 11:23 am

    The reaction to the proposed referendum is a microcosm of what has been going on in economies worldwide for at least the last 30 years. The prime minister of a democratic country proposes that the people (<demos in this case) of that country should be able to have a say about a momentous economic decision that will directly affect them.

    World markets react with shock and horror at the prospect of letting voters make this decision. Don’t they know that’s what The Market is for?

  39. 39.

    fasteddie9318

    November 3, 2011 at 11:24 am

    @arguingwithsignposts: Wow, that’s a relief. Luckily, bankers have once more made the world safe for from democracy!

  40. 40.

    beltane

    November 3, 2011 at 11:25 am

    Greece is going to be liquidated like an old Circuit City store. At this point, their only hope lies in some new bubble scheme being cooked up by the Vampire Squid because otherwise they will forever remain a indebted slave state of the ECB.

  41. 41.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2011 at 11:25 am

    @burnspbesq:

    Greeks are not dramatically different from Californians Teabaggers. They want services, but aren’t willing to pay taxes.

    Corrected for overall accuracy.

    “Get the government off of my medicare!”

  42. 42.

    Sentient Puddle

    November 3, 2011 at 11:26 am

    @Dave: Quick glance at the bond market suggests you’re right as US bond yields are still insanely low and dropping a bit. But longer term, I still don’t think anyone is happy about it because nobody knows just what kind of exposure the US banks have to this mess.

  43. 43.

    cat

    November 3, 2011 at 11:26 am

    I think the Greek Finance Minister is saying that Greece has to stay in the Euro as it was such an important thing that they got in.

    But the Finance Ministers are almost always cozy, or want to get cozy, with the nanks so of course he doesn’t want to inflict pain on them by leaving the Euro.

    I’m not sure why people arent more worried about civil wars. Just a few generations ago this kind of ‘let them eat cake’ attitude from the ruling elite would spark more violence then we’ve seen.

    I think its just a matter of time.

  44. 44.

    beltane

    November 3, 2011 at 11:28 am

    @Poopyman: The markets are nothing more than a pack of chimpanzees masturbating to any little scrap of exciting news.

  45. 45.

    Brachiator

    November 3, 2011 at 11:30 am

    @Dave:

    The GOC is not only the largest landholder in Greece (which renders all that land and the businesses upon them tax-free) but their priests are considered government employees and get paid by the government.

    The Church is not the largest landholder in Greece, but you are right about priests being paid by the government.

    The church is the second-largest landowner in Greece, after the state, with about 130,000 hectares. “It’s forest, not building land,” Meichanetsidis says. But it includes blocks of flats in fashionable areas of Athens and seaside suburbs to the south.
    __
    The church holds a 1.5% share in the National Bank of Greece, with a seat on the board, occupied by the bishop of Ioannina, Theoklitos, who was paid €24,000 in fees in 2008, according to Forbes.com. He opposed an increase in church taxes. “We refuse to foot the bill for other people’s mistakes,” he said. Only two bishops have offered to give up their €2,200 salary.

    The Church is a national institution more entwined with the state than perhaps even the Church of England is with the UK, and the Guardian article gives good insight as to the Church’s relationship to the economy.

  46. 46.

    Rafer Janders

    November 3, 2011 at 11:32 am

    @Brachiator:

    Yes, direct US exposure to Greek debt is vanishingly small.

    However, the US has a lot of exposure to the German, French etc. banks, which themselves have a lot of exposure to Greece. So if those banks blow up, so do ours. It’s like a game of dominoes — even though we’re not directly connected, the fact that a domino further down the line falls may in the end push us over.

  47. 47.

    Dave

    November 3, 2011 at 11:35 am

    @Sentient Puddle: Yeah. And with that, here’s something to piss us all off.

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-02/selling-more-cds-on-europe-debt-raises-risk-for-u-s-banks.html

    US banks selling insurance against a bailout, then packaging the credit-default swaps and selling them to other banks while BUYING CDS from other banks. So there is no reduction in risk.

    The total exposure could be $1T. All in a fucking shell game.

  48. 48.

    burnspbesq

    November 3, 2011 at 11:40 am

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Correction fail. If you lived here, you would know that the aversion to taxes is entirely non-partisan. Democrats are willing to pay a tiny bit more, but not enough to make a meaningful difference.

  49. 49.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2011 at 11:40 am

    @Dave:

    The important thing is, there are fees generated each time there’s a transaction!

    Randolph Duke: Good, William! Now, some of our clients are speculating that the price of gold will rise in the future. And we have other clients who are speculating that the price of gold will fall. They place their orders with us, and we buy or sell their gold for them.
    Mortimer Duke: Tell him the good part.
    Randolph Duke: The good part, William, is that, no matter whether our clients make money or lose money, Duke & Duke get the commissions.
    Mortimer Duke: Well? What do you think, Valentine?
    Billy Ray: Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies.
    Randolph Duke: [chuckling, patting Billy Ray on the back] I told you he’d understand.

  50. 50.

    Linda Featheringill

    November 3, 2011 at 11:40 am

    @Oh God it burns…: #5

    If only the Persians had known that the best way to conquer Greece was to lend money to it, history would have turned out a bit differently.

    LOL!

    Okay, I had a restorative laugh and so can face the day now. Thanks.

    :-)

  51. 51.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2011 at 11:43 am

    @burnspbesq:

    On the national level, teabaggers are all about this.

    Many members of the top 1% are all about this too. They don’t want to pay their share, based on their benefit, to maintain the infrastructure of society that they are obviously deriving gain from.

  52. 52.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2011 at 11:43 am

    @beltane: Computerized monkeys at that. But the point here is that they are not (yet) terribly concerned about the “Greek Crisis”.

  53. 53.

    eemom

    November 3, 2011 at 11:44 am

    If it’s true that he called off the referendum, I am deeply disappointed.

    I am no economist, but from what I’ve read, this is all about saving the German banks, not the Greek people.

    FUCK.

  54. 54.

    Brachiator

    November 3, 2011 at 11:45 am

    @Rafer Janders:

    However, the US has a lot of exposure to the German, French etc. banks, which themselves have a lot of exposure to Greece. So if those banks blow up, so do ours. It’s like a game of dominoes—even though we’re not directly connected, the fact that a domino further down the line falls may in the end push us over.

    Even though the financial mess is a global issue, it’s not all about the US. The damage to Europe would be much worse. A weaker Euro might help the dollar. Who knows. It’s not that easy to foresee the consequences of this.

    @Oh God it burns…:

    If only the Persians had known that the best way to conquer Greece was to lend money to it, history would have turned out a bit differently.

    I have this image of 300 Greeks holding off the bankers at the Gates of Fire.

  55. 55.

    Comrade Dread

    November 3, 2011 at 11:47 am

    People, we commoners anyway, are starting to come around to the idea that the economic wunderkind panacea of globalization was yet another way to screw us over.

  56. 56.

    PeakVT

    November 3, 2011 at 11:48 am

    Are Greek politicians banding together to save the Greek people, or fuck them over?

  57. 57.

    eemom

    November 3, 2011 at 11:49 am

    @Villago Delenda Est:
    @ burns

    let me gently remind both of you that the Greek people are not a monolith any more than we are. Therefore I take umbrage at the statement “Greeks don’t want to pay taxes.”

    I suspect it’s the 1% there, just as it is here, who don’t want to pay taxes — and whose taxes would bring in the money needed to fix the mess.

  58. 58.

    DZ

    November 3, 2011 at 11:52 am

    @dave:

    Do you really understand what a credit default swap is? It doesn’t sound like it. Banks lost tens of billions on CDSs. There is no bank anywhere selling CDSs today.

  59. 59.

    beltane

    November 3, 2011 at 11:53 am

    @PeakVT: A Guardian commenter pointed out that if Greece had only changed its name to Wall Street they would have a full, no-strings-attached bailout forthcoming. The Greek people, like all people, are irrelevant to the functioning of a corporatocracy.

  60. 60.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    November 3, 2011 at 11:54 am

    @Oh God it burns…:

    If only the Persians had known that the best way to conquer Greece was to lend money to it, history would have turned out a bit differently.

    Oh the Persians learned that trick by the Peloponnesian war when they lent the Spartans enough money to build a fleet to defeat Athens.

  61. 61.

    Mark S.

    November 3, 2011 at 11:55 am

    @MattF:

    I understand that leverage is an amazing thing, but the fact that Greece has managed to endanger the global economy says something about the fragility of the whole business.

    @Rafer Janders:

    However, the US has a lot of exposure to the German, French etc. banks, which themselves have a lot of exposure to Greece. So if those banks blow up, so do ours.

    Greatest. Global. Economy. Ever.

  62. 62.

    Poopyman

    November 3, 2011 at 11:56 am

    @eemom: I would posit that the Greeks don’t want to pay taxes if those taxes are going straight into the pockets of German banksters, as seems to be the common perception, given the news coming out of France.

    (BTW, does this mean that Papandreou is getting Cannes-ed?)

  63. 63.

    jwb

    November 3, 2011 at 12:02 pm

    @Brachiator: I wasn’t thinking of just Greek debt, but of exposure to the implosion of the whole Eurozone. Because if Greece goes I don’t see it stopping until the ECB decides it can act like a central bank, and, once the unraveling starts, the rest of the Eurozone will fall apart incredibly quickly.

  64. 64.

    Reality Check

    November 3, 2011 at 12:03 pm

    The Euro will be finished as a currency within five years. Hey, at least us programmers will have a lot more work rewriting software to use Francs and Marks again! God what a clusterfuck. Didn’t anyone know the whole EU experiment was bound to end in tears?

  65. 65.

    scav

    November 3, 2011 at 12:05 pm

    @eemom: OK, but let’s not mythologize the man on the street, the 99%, either. If the Greeks are anything like the French, there’s nothing they enjoy more than figuring out a way to beat the bureaucracy at its own game, especially if it’s really really sneaky and saves a few sou.

  66. 66.

    Sentient Puddle

    November 3, 2011 at 12:09 pm

    @Reality Check: At the risk of blowing your mind, Paul Krugman did.

  67. 67.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    @Sentient Puddle:

    Assumes there’s a mind to blow, in this case.

  68. 68.

    handsmile

    November 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    [An hour ago I posted the following comment which appears still to be in moderation, I suspect for failing to use the filter-approved version of “soshulism.” I’m choosing to submit it again because it addresses later comments by eemom, peakvt, and poopyman. If it has already appeared on this thread, apologies for my…hubris.]

    According to the Guardian’s live blog on the Greek debt crisis (noted by 4tehlulz #12 above), at an emergency meeting today of the Greek cabinet, George Papandreou and his ministers have agreed to suspend the plebiscite on the EU/IMf bailout that had been proposed for early December.

    (Undoubtedly their decision was “greased” [sorry] by yesterday’s IMF announcement that a scheduled release of 8+B euros in bailout funds would be withheld unless there was a “Yes” vote on the referendum.)

    Also, Papandreou will NOT be resigning as prime minister, but a vote of confidence in his government will go ahead tomorrow in the Greek parliament. It is a foregone conclusion that Papandreou and his PASOK ([soshulist]) party will lose and negotiations are now underway with the opposition New Democracy party (politically conservative) to form a coalition government.

    Crucially, the opposition leader Antonis Samaris has declared today his support of the EU/IMF bailout which he had previously denounced. Heavily pressured to do so by Merkel, Sarkozy, and the IMF, this reversal paves the way for the establishment of a New Democracy/PASOK coalition. In turn, this provides more can-kicking time for the provisions of the Greek (bank) bailout/Eurozone stabilization package to be implemented.

  69. 69.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    @scav: Uh yeah but they still pay more taxes than we in the States do. And generally see it as just a part of life, as opposed to theft, the way so many people I know in the US do.

    I have to say that for Americans to be calling Europeans “resistant to paying taxes” is really sort of funny, you have to admit. It’s our national religion.

    I mean you’re right, in France, finding little workarounds as a little private rebellion is a big pastime, but it’s all within the context of just knowing that you’re going to be paying substantial taxes and, despite complaining, pretty much accepting it as just part of life.

  70. 70.

    jl

    November 3, 2011 at 12:15 pm

    @Mark S.:

    I know some commmenters strenuously disagree with me, but Greece is not threatening the global economy, it is the possibility that all of the Eurozone periphery will end up like Greece, even though the other economics (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland) are not nearly as messed up. Certainly they are not so messed up that they could not repay their loans even in a recession, were it not for the possibility that these countries cannot dig up the Euros to pay back their loans (versus always being able to dig up enough national currency to pay back loans), and worry that the Euro currency system will fall apart.

    That is why Obama and others are mostly talking about the importance of firewalls between crises in different countries, more than about the importance of what happens to Greece itself. So the Greek crisis is kind of leak a in the dike thing.

    I saw statistics someplace (sorry, forget where) that European banks are important in business loans in the US. They have been taking up the slack in loaning to US regional banks and other companies to finance business loans ever since the US Too Big to Fails have been spending most of their resources pretending to solvent, and trying to clean up their mortgage documentation mess. So, trouble for European banks would hit the US that way, not mainly through exposure of US Too Big to Fail banks to Euro currency problems and loans to Greece.

    That’s MHO.

  71. 71.

    jwb

    November 3, 2011 at 12:16 pm

    @Reality Check: I dare say that if the Euro is still around in a year, it will be around in 5 years, because the Eurozone countries will have opted to have made the needed structural changes. But if they don’t make those changes, I don’t see any way it survives a year. The situation is too precarious in too many countries.

  72. 72.

    MomSense

    November 3, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    @Stagger Lee and Walker

    The Icelandic solution involved lots of loans from Russia and Norway.

  73. 73.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    I guess this comment of mine from hours ago is still in FYWPurgatory also, so I’ll try again:

    @cathyx: Here’s another good synopsis, one that I’m going to use to mail to my family and friends who keep asking me what’s going on in Greece.

    Incidentally, here’s Atrios’s response to that Kevin Drum piece (via Digby) the other day:

    I’m not saying there are no downsides, but nobody has to actually lose any money. Greece can default, the ECB can just give the banks free money, and we can go on mostly like nothing happened. There are issues with the free money proposal, but there are issues with every other proposal too.

    It’s not that it’s necessarily the only valid viewpoint or that everyone has to agree with it, but what’s amazing is how virtually no one, in the scheme of things, will even voice this sort of thing and certainly no one in a position to do so will actually consider doing it.

  74. 74.

    jl

    November 3, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    @Reality Check:

    “Didn’t anyone know the whole EU experiment was bound to end in tears?”

    Yes: Keynesian macrofinance economists were doubtful. One of them has a famous blog in a big paper. Another has a less famous, but still very good economics blog.

  75. 75.

    catclub

    November 3, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    @handsmile: Your post confirms for me that Papandreou is the smart one. Whoever has to impose _further_ austerity on the greek public will not be popular. He may go out now, but can come back when the public hates the conservative even more.

    jl @ 68 Thanks for the reminder on the ‘European banks are now the lenders of first resort for most large US companies’
    news. I had forgotten about that. Things are complicated.

  76. 76.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 12:30 pm

    @jl: Republicans don’t want to hear that Paul Krugman was right. They just filter it out.

    I was actually thinking the other day that of all the barriers to those who make decisions realizing that their policies have completely failed, the most insurmountable one of all may be that it would involve admitting that people like Krugman (or his European equivalent) were right.

    There’s just too much anti-left, anti-Keynesian history and ego and etc involved at this point. We should try to convince them that ditching “expansionary contraction” is actually some new conservative, ultra-responsible, right wing policy, one that Krugman would hate. If we were smart.

  77. 77.

    Chris

    November 3, 2011 at 12:30 pm

    @Sentient Puddle:
    @jl:

    That’s the euro experiment, which Keynesian economists were indeed dubious of. He’s talking about the entire EU experiment. The fact that it’s doomed to fail, like Europe in general, has been an article of faith among righties for as long as it’s existed.

  78. 78.

    scav

    November 3, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: agree entirely. I just sometimes get spasms of the knee when faced with mythologizing. Grumble Mightily, Pay and Benefit from the resulting infrastructure (often while still grumbling) is more the rule. Still, entirely too many of the French (to my mind) voted for Sarko, although at least many are self-aware enough to exhibit buyers remorse.

  79. 79.

    Chris

    November 3, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    I was actually thinking the other day that of all the barriers to those who make decisions realizing that their policies have completely failed, the most insurmountable one of all may be that it would involve admitting that people like Krugman (or his European equivalent) was right. There’s just too much anti-left, anti-Kensyian history and ego and etc involved at this point.

    Oh, completely.

  80. 80.

    catclub

    November 3, 2011 at 12:33 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: “and certainly no one in a position to do so will actually consider doing it.”

    Well of course not. It would be that moral hazard thing of encouraging the wrong people to expect a bailout.

    I guess as a corollary to HL Mencken’s adage that for any problem there is an answer that is easy simple and wrong,
    in this case the solution that gores the wrong ox cannot be discussed.

  81. 81.

    jl

    November 3, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    @Chris: Well, look at inter country trade patterns, and dropping the EU would make a big mess of that, and cause problems in the short run. Unlike the Euro. So, I would not go that far.

  82. 82.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 12:38 pm

    @scav: Well, you have company, too many of them voted for him in their minds also ;)

    His approval polls have been crawling in the mud since very early on. By the way, I think I’ve mentioned this here before but my Hungarian friend tells me that Sarkozy means “between the mud”.

    BTW I guess I didn’t salvage this part from FYWPurgatory but this book has put all this in a whole new perspective for me. Best thing I’ve read in years.

    http://www.amazon.com/Debt-First-000-Years-ebook/dp/B00513DGIO/ref=tmm_kin_title_0?ie=UTF8&m=AG56TWVU5XWC2&qid=1320332092&sr=8-1

  83. 83.

    Marc

    November 3, 2011 at 12:44 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    For every complex problem there is a simple solution that is wrong. If Duncan is such a genius he could spend more than a sentence defining what he means. If he did, of course, people could actually understand what this entails, and he could be critiqued on the merits. Instead he can hide behind being vague.

    Exhibit #6,732 on why that guy is now useless as a contributor of actual knowledge.

  84. 84.

    terraformer

    November 3, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Indeed. Most of these people belong to a slice of humanity that has no empathy, and couldn’t care less about what happens to anyone. They simply follow cleek’s definition of Today’s Conservatism.

    Reminds me of Lieberman during the ACA “debates”: there was a brief period of time, perhaps a day at most, when he was actually behind lowering the age of Medicare eligibility, maybe 55? But as soon as he got wind that Democrats and progressives were like “fvck yeah we’ll agree to that!” he immediately backtracked and well, here we are.

    It might really be as easy as reverse psychology, but unfortunately there are minions scattered throughout the Conservative Decideosphere who are truly evil, and who can see through such a clever ploy.

  85. 85.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    November 3, 2011 at 12:50 pm

    @Marc: I don’t think he’s proposing a detailed solution in anything like the way you mean it, he was writing a blog post. He’s a blogger, and his particular knack for blogging has always been pithiness.

    Krugman writes blog posts covering all this in more detail that Duncan often links to, as well as articles that go into a little more depth, and then academic work that goes into more. So you can sort of take your pick.

    Put another way, your holding that brief blog post of his to that sort of standard would be pretty much the same as him holding that comment you just made to the same one.

  86. 86.

    scav

    November 3, 2011 at 12:52 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim: Funny, I just ordered that book yesterday. Ahh, these memes, they do get about.

  87. 87.

    Social Outcast

    November 3, 2011 at 12:57 pm

    @Marc: This is like complaining that punk musicians don’t write symphonies. Atrios’ whole attraction is the single or two sentence comment. Don’t like it? Read one of the many economics bloggers who post 2,000 words a day and describe policies in detail.

  88. 88.

    Dave

    November 3, 2011 at 1:18 pm

    @DZ: DZ – did you read the article?

    Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. banks increased sales of insurance against credit losses to holders of Greek, Portuguese, Irish, Spanish and Italian debt in the first half of 2011, boosting the risk of payouts in the event of defaults.

    Guarantees provided by U.S. lenders on government, bank and corporate debt in those countries rose by $80.7 billion to $518 billion, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Almost all of those are credit-default swaps, said two people familiar with the numbers, accounting for two-thirds of the total related to the five nations, BIS data show.

    The payout risks are higher than what JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the leading CDS underwriters in the U.S., report. The banks say their net positions are smaller because they purchase swaps to offset ones they’re selling to other companies. With banks on both sides of the Atlantic using derivatives to hedge, potential losses aren’t being reduced, said Frederick Cannon, director of research at New York-based investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

    But hey, I guess Bloomberg doesn’t know what they’re talking about either.

  89. 89.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 3, 2011 at 1:23 pm

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Spot on.

    Their religion has been failed, by someone, but certainly not them.

    Must be some DFH or Mooslim out there doing it. Yeah, that’s the ticket!

  90. 90.

    ed_finnerty

    November 3, 2011 at 1:28 pm

    As the Wizard of Id noted,

    The Golden Rule

    “Whoever has the gold makes the rules”

    enjoy the next 30 years of penury greek 99%’ers

  91. 91.

    Will Reks

    November 3, 2011 at 1:57 pm

    @jwb:

    I think they will be forced to make those changes. The primary change will be federalization.

  92. 92.

    jwb

    November 3, 2011 at 2:09 pm

    @Will Reks: Yes, federalization is the answer, but the populace of the European countries seem in no mood to allow it to happen. It’s probably going to take Greece going under (how long can that really be postponed?) and massive bank runs on the other countries to get it to happen, and even then it’s not clear to me that it will.

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