The latest polls in Ohio before tomorrow’s election shows GOP Gov. John Kasich’s law to strip collective bargaining rights from public workers is about to go down in epic defeat.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) found that 59 percent of voters oppose SB 5, while just 36 percent plan to approve it during Tuesday’s election.
“What might be most remarkable about the 23 point margin in this poll is that it’s exactly identical to what we found the first time we polled on this issue all the way back in March,” PPP’s Tom Jensen noted. “Voters were furious then and that anger has continued all the way to November.”
Democrats were prepared to vote against the bill 86-10, while Republicans are more divided on the issue. Only 30 percent said they will vote against it.
If approved, SB 5 would strip most collective bargaining rights from public employees in Ohio. Police officers, firefighters, teachers, and other state employees could still negotiate for some benefits, but not wages. Public employees would also be prohibited from striking.
Gov. Kasich’s own approval numbers have tanked since he has signed the bill. He was elected by a 55-37 margin over former Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, but now only 33 percent of voters approve of the job he’s doing, making him one of the most disliked governors in the nation.
Things are looking pretty good, but if you’re in Ohio, we still need you to vote tomorrow in order to make this a reality. It’s no sure thing in an off-year election. Both Kasich and the No On Issue 2 folks are running tons of commercials in the state, but in the end I think having Kasich be the face of the pro-Issue 2 folks was a massive mistake, as people hate this bill as much as they hate him right now. National Republicans were smart enough not to cut any commercials in Ohio for this mess.
I guess Zombie Reagan wasn’t too telegenic. Having said that, let’s not take this for granted. Get out there and vote tomorrow, Ohio.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
I’m cautiously optimistic based on how many “NO ON ISSUE 2” signs I’ve seen, including many clearly handcrafted ones, several of which are large, in the ultra-red Warren County.
I hope that the buyer’s remorse is strong for King John, who was elected with a plurality but behaves as if he had a mandate from an overwhelming landslide.
Davis X. Machina
Mainers, don’t forget “Yes” on One tomorrow.
Vote to citizen-veto the ALEC puppet-masters’ ban on same-day voter registration. Restore our 38 year record of first-, second- or third-in the nation voter turnout.
And stick a finger in Governor ‘38%’ LePage’s eye in the process.
Linda Featheringill
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
Hand-crafted signs are very encouraging!
amk
Let’s hope people put their vote where their mouth is and that 23% spread holds or gets better.
Steve
Hang on, surely Kasich did not defeat Strickland by a 55-37 margin, as your quote claims.
willard
Vote No on 3, also. Regardless of how you feel about the federal health care law, this issue is just added welfare for lawyers. It will not stop the insurance mandate and can only have unintended consequences. The State constitution is not the place for these sorts disagreements.
El Cid
__
This disgusting cheap partisanship by Democrats is what’s ruining everything. They need to vote with Republicans to show their fellow citizens their respect. This may have the side effect of not defeating the bill, but if that’s what it takes to bring both sides together, well…
Guster
I’ve never understood agreeing to prohibition against striking.
PeakVT
@Steve: 49-47%. How did RS come up with 55-37?
JenJen
I’ve already voted No on Issue 2 by mail. I am really, really stoked for tomorrow’s results. Don’t believe the polls, Buckeyes… get out there and vote, and let’s BEAT those poll numbers. :-)
Oh, and I think Kasich did us a favor with that Bernie Kosar fantasy yarn he spun.
Napoleon
In the last few days I read (or heard) one statehouse Republican say that if they loose they are going to break the law into pieces and repass it.
Also something like this can not get enough play:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/in-ohio-labor-fight-shared-sacrifice-for-thee-but-not-for-me/2011/11/05/gIQAFyw8rM_blog.html
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@PeakVT: Not a clue where they got that. Your numbers are correct. Can someone perhaps alert the author to that ridiculous error? I’m off to the office, or I’d be all over it.
Exurban Mom
I early voted No on 2 a week ago. It was a good feeling to put a big fat X next to the no vote on that one. I’m seeing lots and lots of No on 2 signs, and in all my travels in my (red) county this fall, only two homes with Yes on 2 signs.
And Ohio friends, also vote No on Issue 3, which is the teabaggers’ hilarious attempt to get the state to repeal its participation in Obama’s health care plan. Every single major paper in the state opined that voting Yes on Issue 3 was essentially unconstitutional and a waste of taxpayer dollars.
JenJen
@Napoleon: That’s my biggest concern. When Issue 2/SB5 goes down to defeat tomorrow, with the Ohio GOP try again, this time turning police and firefighters against teachers and other state employees?
And will the police and firefighters stand with us again?
Steve
@PeakVT: TPM’s story says the following:
Of course, that’s 55-37 in the opposite direction, so who knows how the numbers got confused.
amk
@PeakVT: It seems to be a Rawstory quote but I have not found that phrasing in PPP.
SuzieC
Zandar: (via TPM)Kasich was elected in the 2010 Republican wave, defeating incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland by a 49%-47% margin. However, when asked if they could vote again, the respondents in this poll chose Strickland by a 55%-37% margin.
I don’t think the GOP will try again in our state after Issue 2 goes down to epic defeat. Too many of them are up for re-election.
Redshift
@JenJen: You’d think the “when they came for the teachers, I said nothing” scenario would be pretty obvious at this point, but it’ll probably take a lot more work to make sure of it.
Waynski
@JenJen: They must be convinced that you all must hang together or surely you’ll be hanged separately.
JenJen
@Redshift: @Waynski: Exactly.
Linda Featheringill
When do we start targeting the Republican state legislators that make this nonsense possible?
marcopolo
@Napoleon: I hope that they do. Let the Rethugs reinforce the idea that they don’t care about the will of the people. That ought to play well in the upcoming elections. Also too as I mentioned in a reply downthread, the current bill has forced folks in Ohio to do a little thinking and make a choice about where they stand vis-a-vis unions. The overwhelming majority have decided to support them. Once a person makes a decision and takes a few steps down a path it is much more difficult to persuade them to change their mind.
Mr Stagger Lee
I want to see tears on Karl Rove’s face, I want the lizard-like eyes of the Kochs turn red like the Cylons and have them both go into sputtering rages. This Former resident of Ohio is cheering for you Buckeyes!
AdamK
I’m in the Dayton area and I’ve seen countless “no on 2” ads on TV lately and only one “yes on 2” ad, with Kasich’s bloated mug filling up the screen, making it obvious whose side the “yes” people are on. But I keep reading that the “yes” people are spending more money on ads. I wonder where the ads are being run, and why the one I saw was so hopelessly crappy.
SuzieC
@AdamK: I’m in Columbus area. Hilariously, a friend got a pro-2 robocall from Pat Boone. I got one from Stephen Baldwin paid for by Americans for prosperity. I think that’s the Koch/Rove SuperPAC. Sarah Palin, getting a paycheck, is also doing robocalls.
Anya
Unfortunately, it looks like Kasich’s side will get win on Issue 3. Guess which one the media will focus on? This will be framed as a defeat to President Obama’s health care law.
ornery
Some good news, thanks Zandar. Really impressed by great work being done by Ohio activists and I hope tomorrow ‘Issue 2’ goes down in stunning defeat.
Anya
@SuzieC: They think Stephen fucking Baldwin is going to convince anyone? I swear, these people live in an alternate reality.
Cain
So why are 10 democrats planning on voting FOR this bill? How will they explain their vote?
Villago Delenda Est
@El Cid:
I am intrigued by your ideas, and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Elect a President, not a party, also, too.
Anya
@Linda Featheringill: I absolutely agree. Our side does not focus on local elections but state legislators are incubators of wingnut experiments and regressive laws. We really need to put our efforts in electing sane local legislators.
Napoleon
@Cain:
Cain, it is 10% of the people who were polled who self identified as Dems.
A friend of mine yesterday mentioned that one of her friends that is a teacher is voting for it. I sent my friend the link I have above to send on to her.
ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©
I don’t think the GOP will try again in our state after Issue 2 goes down to epic defeat. Too many of them are up for re-election.
They’re not very smart, SuzieC.
Note how often they get arrested for drunk driving.
~
Violet
So are the national Republicans abandoning Kasich to make it look like it was all his bad idea? That way they can blame it on him and declare they “support workers.”
Villago Delenda Est
@ifthethunderdontgetya™³²®©:
Also toos for this one:
Wide stances.
Appalachian trail hikes.
Medicare vouchers.
Privatizing Social Security.
Kochsucking in general.
Yutsano
@JenJen:
Isn’t Kosar, like, dead flat broke?
xian
@El Cid: it’s class warfare I tell you, and it makes the baby Boehner cry!
Garm
If you’re involved with any sort of GOTV efforts tell people who are reticent to vote that voting in an off-year election makes contact from major campaigns in future elections less likely. Those who vote in off-year elections vote in major elections at such a high rate that it’s better to target resources elsewhere.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
I hope you Ohioans (whatever the word is) defeat 2, but Democratic voters are like Democratic politicians. Hopefully you can avoid snatching defeat from the jaws of vitory.
becca
@Linda Featheringill: I suggest Occupy ALEC. Put a spotlight on those kochroaches.
Churchlady
@El Cid: Huh? I hope you are trying to be funny. However, it’s not working. Bringing the two sides together by supporting union busting? Now there’s a neighborly idea. If corporations can collectively bargain – and that’s what joint stock companies DO – so must working people be able to. It’s more efficient than trying to deal individually with every employee and stands between corrupt managers and backroom deals with their out of work brother in law. People count. And NO public sector workers do NOT work “for you” they work on your behalf. They are adults who deserve to be treated as same. Vote no on 2. THAT is solidarity and unity.
dj spellchecka
driving thru parts of akron, cuyahoga falls, monroe falls, stow and kent in the last few days i saw exactly one “yes on two” sign…saw about 20 “no on two” signs including two in front of small businesses
also got a “vote yes on one” robocall from pat boone!
Steve
@Churchlady: I found it funny.
Roger Moore
@AdamK:
It’s a good bet that a big chunk of the money is being spent on various forms of grift. There’s nothing the Republicans do that they can’t come up with some way of profiting from personally. Also, too, they’re probably focusing more on
preaching to the choirrallying the base rather than convincing the undecided. So if you’re not watching Fox, you may not be seeing the full force of their ad blitz.scav
Sorry, no open thread so an OT hee hee hee at the reveal that NI and NotW were hiring people to spy on hacking victims’ lawyers (and the friends/families of said layers) certainly as late as Jan 2011. GUARD And at least one of the investigators may not have had time to sleep given all the people he follows around (royals, cabinet ministers, possibly small children in garden centers {technical exaggeration}), once worked for the police and is currently in dispute with NotW. Recipe for a hairball free-for-all. hee hee hee hee, I embarrass myself.
Villago Delenda Est
@Churchlady:
Time to take the old snark detector in for a tune-up.
Although it is increasingly less obvious what is snark and what is serious. Poe’s Law runs wild over the intertubes.
JenJen
@Yutsano: Broke. And his daughter does porn.
Lol
@35: they’re just smart enough in this case to not waste anymore money on the issue.
They’ll probably catch some grief from the base for selling out Kascich or like such as.
Napoleon
@AdamK:
I have seen a million yes ads here in Cleveland. They are wall to wall.
Napoleon
@JenJen:
Seriously?
El Cid
@Churchlady: Snark. Although I wouldn’t bet money that someone couldn’t show me similar commentary in the press at this moment.
Irving
It’s my understanding that the way the non-profits like Citizens United are force to play, they have to spend at least 50% of their money on supporting something other than a specific candidate. Which means that Citizens United needs to waste as much money as possible out here in Ohio.
Yutsano
OT) so this is fun: someone managed to get themselves locked out of their condo and missed an appointment this morning. Wheee!!!
Poopyman
@Napoleon: He has four children with his former wife Babette; one of his daughters is adult film actress Lexxi Silver.
schrodinger's cat
@El Cid: You sounded very Broderian or is it Broderite?
Thoughtful Black Co-Citizen
If you’re voting at the polls make sure you have a backup plan for getting there. Some of your fellow Ohioites might have taken Mike HyuckHyuckabee’s advice to heart:
El Cid
@schrodinger’s cat: It’s Broderiffic!
eemom
@Steve:
@El Cid:
She’s baaaaack……and more humor-challenged than EVAH.
rikyrah
the undecideds seem to be breaking for NO ON 5
thanks for keeping us informed.
4jkb4ia
@Exurban Mom:
SWEET! Also too, they are putting it to the polls at a time when Democratic sympathizers are likely to come out, which did not happen in Missouri. If the voters support Issue 3 and turn down Issue 2, this is firebagger candy. You know it is true.
soonergrunt
@eemom: who’s back?
JenJen
Via Greg Sargent, Cincinnati-based right-wing smear group COAST is out with a misleading “Yes On Issue 2” flyer, complete with recorded chock-full-o-lies message.
Here in Cincy, we have a long history of fighting these COAST chumps, but they keep popping up like whack-a-mole.
Bill Arnold
@eemom:
If that’s the same Churchlady, count me surprised to see advocacy of power diffusion of this sort.
Tony
Pardon my paranoia, but the best thing that could happen tomorrow is if we lose 51 – 49 %.
Such an obvious fixing of the system will cause folks to look at 2004 again, and then eventually conservatism DIES for fixing that election, hoisted by its own petard.
A man can dream, anyway :)
Linda
This is a bushellful of fail for Kaisich. He not only didn’t stir up his base–many rank and file Repubs are ambivalent on it–but he stirred up the OTHER base. And make no mistake–they are no longer opponents. He tried to take their cash, which makes you an enemy. Lots of cops and firemen who were Republicans do not count themselves in that column any more.
Ohio Mom
@Linda: I think it remains to be seen whether police and fire have completely seen the light. They won’t ever vote for Kasich again but there’s lots of other Republicans running for lots of other offices.
I don’t follow Cincinnati politics as closely as I used to since I’m in the suburbs now, but I did notice the FOP endorsing Republicans for City Council — and I’ll note that Cincinnati City Council is where Ken Blackwell and Steve “Don’t you dare video my town hall meeting” Chabot got their starts. Who knows, they could be giving another national-level PITA his or her start with this year’s endorsements.
debbie
For those of you in Franklin County:
The Republicans are running a scam in the race for Municipal Judge. The Democratic candidate is Eric Brown; Jim O’Grady is the Republican.
The Republicans have been running ads for O’Grady saying that he wants to serve in the spirit of the O’Grady tradition (John O’Grady being a Franklin County Commissioner). The ad implies that there’s a family connection and that like John, Jim is a Democrat.
It turns out that there’s no relation at all, other than sharing an Irish surname. Commissioner O’Grady has been quoted in a mailing piece, condemning the “political name game.”
This joins the Issue 2 Grandma scam. Ohio Republicans must really be hurting.
Be sure to vote for Brown!
Kathleen
@SuzieC: I got Pat Boone’s call, too. I also got a call from the chair of the Ohio GOP telling all Republican voters to make sure they get out to vote to “take back our state”. At which point I said to myself, “Hmmm. You have the governor’s office, you have the state house, you have the judiciary, you have the media. From whom are you taking back? Have you met the enemy and it’s you?” Someone else in my precinct with my exact same name is a Republican, so I get lots of their calls.