Nate Silver says the Gingrich boom may be real:
[T]he biggest piece of news here is Mr. Gingrich and his rise in the polls: he, Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain may now be in a rough three-way tie for the Republican polling lead. Polls certainly aren’t everything in a presidential primary, and for reasons I outlined earlier this week, Mr. Gingrich might have trouble maintaining his momentum as his campaign begins to receive more scrutiny. Still, it looks as if he’s going to enjoy his moment in the sun.
Conservative political analyst Stu Rothenberg sums this all up pretty well:
OK, I give up. I don’t know what the heck is going to happen in the Republican race.[….]
Gingrich is the ultimate entrepreneur, which is not a bad thing in the Republican Party.
I still remember trailing him and former White House spokesman Tony Snow as the three of us walked to take our seats on a small stage at a speaking event a number of years ago.
Gingrich, as I recall, was giving advice to Snow, who had left government service because of his cancer, about the kinds of business deals that the former White House press secretary should consider. Gingrich rattled off a mind-boggling number of ventures and ideas, all of which he had already put into place for himself. I couldn’t help but be impressed by his creativity, but I recall being more than a little uncomfortable by his wheeler-dealer “Gingrich Inc.” approach.
Imagine who much grifting Newt can do in a prolonged primary. This could be the stuff of legends.
From Here to Eternity…
Romney is already sending out mailers to Iowa reminding the fundies about Gingrich’s immoral personal life.
And CNN reported that he doesn’t even have a single campaign office (not even a phone number) in the caucus state of Iowa.
Romney, Cain and Gingrich and grifted Republicans – leading the revival of the popcorn industry.
Might be my favorite song off the album.
@DougJ, @Omnes Omnibus:
Suddenly, Last Summer. “What she saw was so horrible that she went insane. Now her mother wants her lobotomized to cover up the truth.”
Pretty much nails the Republican Party right now.
Sarah Palin’s gotta be wondering how to get back in the game.
the thoughts are twirling around in my head . . .
I’m starting to get the feeling that there’s a majority of Republicans who just don’t like Mitt Romney. And, as a matter of fact, I can see why.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Cat Lady: I wonder if Pawlenty’s bright enough to realize how badly he blew it. Though I think Romney is probably a stronger general election candidate.
Rothenberg. I wonder what non-partisan, centrist organization paid Newtie, Tony Snow and non-partisan Stu Rothenberg somewhere between 10 and 25K apiece (just guessing) to give them some fair and balanced analysis.
Looks like Newt has successfully tapped into a wingnut artery by bashing the press, in fairly brazen terms.
If the dude gets the nom, he will have to rent a train to carry all his political/personal baggage around the country. I have no idea who the wingnuts will pick. These are hungry people, with a buffet of shit sandwiches to order up.
@Cat Lady: A month past the IA filing deadline? Her only hope is a deadlocked convention.
Villago Delenda Est
Gingrich might go over well with Villagers, but Romney’s on the right track by pointing to Newt’s pathetic track record of three marriages, each breaking up for him to “upgrade” his spousal unit to something more “befitting” a presidential candidate.
The fact that he was screwing his current wife while divorcing his second, and at the same time was bemoaning Bill Clinton’s infidelities is telling.
The church going people of Iowa may be suspicious of the Mormon, but Newt’s track record is, shall we say, imperfect.
Or maybe The Heiress. “A naïve young woman falls for a handsome young man who her emotionally abusive father suspects is a fortune hunter.”
God, the GOP remake practically casts itself.
@Steeplejack: great analogy, except i’m not sure republicans have figured out the “sent went insane” and why part yet.
Amanda in the South Bay
Oh dear Jeebus, Id do anything for a Newt win.
Gingrich and Romney have one thing in common: they don’t actually have any personal beliefs besides the idea that they are owed wealth and fame
great analogy, except i’m not sure republicans have figured out the “she went insane” and why part yet.
I think it’s more that the Rove/Romney ship is shooting gigantic holes in every other campaign but sighting/reloading takes time – Gingrich had to get “popular” (i.e. the same 20% or so as Romney) before they started to go to work on him.
I think Gingrich is simply the only viable option left who hasn’t said crazy shit about science being real
PST BERKELEY — A man with a gun was shot and wounded by police today at UC Berkeley’s Haas School of Business, officials said.
The man was brandishing a handgun when he was shot by a law-enforcement officer at about 2:15 p.m., said university spokesman Dan Mogulof. He would not say if campus police were involved.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/11/15/BA4U1LVL80.DTL#ixzz1dp01IPRZ
As I sit here in Kansas City getting robocalls from Cain and Gingrich, I have to admire the Newtster getting the most for his money. The calls don’t actually say anything. At all. Just Newt 2012 on the caller ID. If you’re going to call somebody in a state that won’t likely matter, that’s the way to go.
Shooter at UC Berkeley.
Final delegate count: Romney 45%; Newt 35%; Cain 20%. Newt and cain form an alliance and throw the Mittster under the clown car. Newt/Cain 2012! You heard it here first.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I can’t imagine Newtie will survive media scrutiny, and I have no idea how Rove, the KochBro$ and the other rich money people feel about him, but I could absolutely see him taking the Veep spot. All that free media and no responsibility? It’s got his name all over it. And I can’t imagine anything i’d wish on President Romney more than a Vice President Gingrich.
You lack imagination, my friend.
Sarah! correctly intuits that America! needs her guidance and flies posthaste to Iowa, where she declares that the Lamestream Media and Crony Capitalism boys club of the Rino party won’t keep her from saving the conservative heritage of America! and demands that they open up the nomination process to Sarah!and her brand of common sense wisdom.
Of course, this is only possible if good hard wurkin Murkins such as yourself pitch in with a cash donation so that lil Trig won’t have to see his toys sold off to keep the home fire burnin’.
Act now with your $50.00 pledge to Sarah!PAC, and you will recieve an official Sarah! Abraham Lincoln Commemorative Medallion*.
*Al Franken was a goddamned prophet.
But how does Erick Ewickson feel?
Once again, Gingrich emerges from the billowing smoke
John Lithgow Performs Gingrich Press Release
I don’t know whether Josh Marshall has a good record on prognostication or not, but he posted his two cents on Gingrich at TPM this morning:
I have no idea why people keep thinking Iowa matters so much. The state gave the nod to Mike Huckabee in ’08 and has run Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, and Pat Robertson as ranked contenders in the past.
Ask who is polling well in South Carolina and Florida. South Carolina hasn’t missed picking the Republican nominee in something like 100 years. Florida is a state with enough electoral votes to make someone care. All this Iowa wankery will do is convince Rick Santorum and John Huntsman that they should watch the New Hampshire returns on TV.
Uz-beki-beki-stan-stan turned around and bit Herman Cain in the ass.
I was just thinking that.
I read somewhere that the Iowa caucuses don’t have a filing deadline per se, so in principle all she needs to do is show up and have a bunch of people be wowed by her starbursts. Then, run as a write-in in NH and whatever other early states that the filing deadline has passed, which lets you spin just about any result. Following that, ride to victory across the South and West.
Theoretically possible, but would require a very focused campaign and a lot of work. Therefore, not going to happen.
It’s schadenfreudelicous that Willard must start every day saying to himself, “what am I, chopped liver? What do I have to do and say now to con these stupid rubes into supporting me?”
@Zifnab25: What do you want to talk about Duke vs Michigan State? :)
Looks like the man brandishing a gun was wounded by police and taken to hospital before he could do any damage.
I just don’t understand why the village consider Newt Gingrich a “smart guy”
Newt Is Dumb
Iowa allows “write-in” candidates during the caucus. And with the way the Iowa cuacus works, Palin as a write-in could actually pick up quite a few votes. Of course, primaries will be harder, and I don’t know if all of them allow write-ins, but if Palin were to jump in late, it would be so much all over the news that she would hardly have to campaign. And of course writing in “Palin” is a lot easier than writing in “Murkowski”.
Villago Delenda Est
Because he’s just like their shallow, vapid, airheaded selves?
Good to know that molestations of kids in football program aren’t limited to college programs!
At least in this case, race is involved.
i cannot believe what the republican party and the republican presidential race has become. you simply can not make this shit up. it’s like a really awful failed sitcom that keeps playing and playing
Villago Delenda Est
Ok, the GoogleAds are getting pretty silly.
One is for “Politico Bookshelf”.
Another is your “Number One Source of Penn State clothing and merchandise.”
@El Cid: Guess what, it’s not limited to any arena.
Whichever non-Romney is going to win Iowa is going to get a huge boost going into South Carolina (Romney seems to have a lock on New Hampshire). We know the GOP is looking for a non-Romney candidate, so they will line up behind whoever gets some momentum going, and that momentum starts in Iowa. And Romney is not going to win South Carolina.
I just wrote a fairly exhaustive analysis of the Republican Primary Process (all aboard the Crazy Train, leaving Iowa on January 3rd). I have come to the conclusion that Mittens does not have this thing sewed up at all. The delegation process is crazy skewed towards conservative states (Utah gets as many delegates as Mass. with 1/3 the population). Plus, six states have pushed thier primaries up and will (supposedly) be penalized 50% of their delegates. Plus, even more importantly, delegates will be awarded proportionally until April 1. Thats 29 states, including some heavy hitters like Texas and Georgia that must award proportionally. The whole process is exactly what you would expect from the Republican party, fucked up beyond all recognition.
@Calouste: He’ll be lucky to get out of there with his secret underwear.
@JGabriel: The big question this year is whether the Republican power brokers are actually powerful enough to nominate a candidate 70% of the GOP primary voters really don’t like. And if they aren’t, then you can’t rule out Gingrich. Or one of the other unelectables. The problem they have is that electability as they read it is simply a dealbreaker for a majority of the primary voters.
@jl: Stephen Colbert is a fucking national treasure. I had forgotten that.
Also, I think Lithgow would do a fascinating portrayal of Limbaugh.
The GOP race can easily be described as a race to the bottom, or who bottoms out first, with flaws that can be swallowed by the conservatives, that populate the majority of republicans these days. If not in numbers, at least in energy, and likely voting habits. Romney seems stuck at a ceiling of support he can’t crawl past. I suspect it is his Mormonism, but could also be his near complete lack of deeply held beliefs that make the wingers tiny hearts go a flutter. Perry has turned out to be a fruit loop, as has Cain and the others. Newt might just catch the bouquet when the clowns kiss, and become the wingnut bride elect. But who knows. I swear, sometimes it seems that Romney is the only one who wants to run against Obama, and the rest are doing standup and would rather do about anything other than face the chance of getting beat by Obama.
Yeah, this. Across the board, there’s an assault on facts and reality perpetrated by conservatives abetted by the lazy media wanting horse race entertainment, and I think the outcome of reality prevailing is in doubt. Heckuva job, Both Sides Do It Media!
OT, but the Costas interview is one of the creepiest things I’ve ever heard, and damning as hell.
@Raven: I know, that’s part of the joke. On the other hand, I say, in for a penny, in for a pound, let’s have ourselves a full-on molestathon of revelations if it’s what it’s going to take.
@Cat Lady: and yet i can’t look away, with champagne glass in hand, it’s like the train wreck of the century
@harlana: I’m still avoiding it. Transcript’s enough.
Davis X. Machina
@lamh35: That’s John McWhorter. Genus: Very Serious Person. (TNR, Manhattan Institute) Species: Post-Racial
He’s positively with child to back a Republican, so that his even-handedness and putting principle above party can be admired by the Village, and dammit, they just won’t offer one up that he take seriously.
I’m not sure I’m in Oklahoma City, at the moment.
The city council has passed sexual orientation protection for city employees, by a vote of seven to two this morning.
Davis X. Machina
@Tom Hilton: That 70% figure may not be what it seems, at least per Jonathan Bernstein.
Jeebus, this too. WTF? Why did his lawyer think anything about that creepy display of sickitude helped his client? Is it all about tainting the jury pool? Will there be anyone other than pedophiles left in PA that will think this guy isn’t a sick fuck?
@El Cid: Take for what? The cover-ups may be more preventable because of this but the sickness is another thing altogether (which, obviously, you already know).
@El Cid: i feel like i need a shower
Well, we don’t really know that.
Again I point out that this is the problem with not having preferential voting and not having polling that matches. Mitt could be the #1 choice for 20% of the electorate and the #2 choice for 80% (with no other candidate getting > 20%), which would suggest that he’s a lock for the nomination.
Once you start removing choices from voters, by candidates dropping out or otherwise soiling themselves publicly, we’re left with NO information on how voters will re-rank. And that’s just profoundly negligent of any polling operation.
1. Not a fan of Joan Walsh, but I liked how she said of Newt “His baggage has baggage.”
2. Not a fan of GG either (to put it mildly), but I liked the intro to his post today about Bloomberg busting up OWS.
3. Did y’all see the Politico post earlier about who Herman Cain would pick for his SoS??
Guess! G’wan, guess!!
Thinking likely suspects from the W admin? Noooope. Go back a few decades.
Noooope. Further back.
I’d much rather have Newt than Romney as both candidate and President.
I’d rather have him as a candidate because there will be no bullshit about things then. I’ve already seen more than one liberal pundit start to float the idea that Romney might not be all that bad. I don’t want any whiny lefty who got their fee-fee’s hurt by Barack Obama to be able to lie to themselves about what 2012 is all about.
I’d rather have him as President because he’s too much of an arrogant dick to totally kowtow to the rightwing machine and he’s so in love with his own intellect that he’d actually want to accomplish something in office.
@Martin: “Again I point out that this is the problem with not having preferential voting”
And the European systems that practice preferential voting have produced such superior leadership, haven’t they? Why, just look at how much better the Eurons are handling this whole global financial crisis.
Gingrich is a lying, cheating, faux-intellectual, washed-up sack of shit with a fucking half million $ revolving credit line at Tiffany’s. I’d love to have him as the nominee.
Oh yes we do. The polling over the last few shows that voters will jump from one non-Romney to another non-Romney, but not to Romney. We’ve had 4 non-Romney turn up and flame out (Trump, Bachmann, Perry and Cain), and Romney hasn’t profited from any of them.
ETA: Jesus H. Christ.
Kissinger? Really? Does the State Department have a plane with a wheelchair lift and oxygen tanks?
@Raven: ‘Take’ to expose many more of these industrialized molestation complexes.
@soonergrunt: I wonder if it is an attempt to inspire some sort of legislative effort to nullify it (see TN) and help boost turn out next year.
I can’t help feeling like a conspiracy nut saying that. But the thing is, it’s a thing the GOP would actually do.
@El Cid: I’ll vote for that.
Rachel Swan had a good article in the East Bay Express on the Black Bloc riding in to the Occupy Oakland arena to demonstrate urgently-needed skills such as building occupations, street barricades, and window-threatening.
I had to turn it off. Costas is a very good interviewer, I’ll say that. Give him a Sunday show.
[H]e, Mr. Romney and Mr. Cain may now be in a rough three-way
I stopped there, and luckily made it to the bathroom.
Why does anyone take this prolonged “So Long, Farewell, Auf Wiedersehen, Good Night” act seriously? The GOP is lying on the subway floor with Agent Luntz, and it hears the sound of inevitability. But to keep the “Some Folk’ll Never Burn a Cross, But Then Again Some Folk’ll” yokels engrossed, we have to pretend a new candidate each week is the real frontrunner.
“Oh look, it’s Booby McWolfshoot deciding not to run (up the staircase.) Welp, there goes Crazy Eyes Vanillah with her vaccination literature (humps banister, Marcus pushes her up). Without further ado, here’s a lethal injection of charisma from Texas, who will win for three reasons: um, never mind (he shoots pistols to propel him up stairs). Wait a minute, lo and behold, here’s the “We’re Not Racist, and Besides He Makes Great Rice” candidate LEADING THE RACE– oh wait, 9-9-9 is his rating of 3 women he harassed (has a blond lead him up and away.) Alright, folks, here’s our last act, Mr. “In Sickness and In Health” himself, Professor Newtie! He’s read two Toffler books and some WWII comics– those media idiots just can’t keep up with him!! Oh right, everyone hates him (Tiffany’s rep yanks him up with a silver cane).”
(Chris Matthews) “Can you believe it, folks? Can you believe it? What say you, Luke Russert?” “Chris, Romney has somehow pulled off the nomination. And his Dad didn’t even die during the primaries!”
Wake me up next July.
Preferential voting is only used in parliamentary elections within the EU in Ireland and Malta.
@Gex: I don’t think that the city council would work like that, but I wouldn’t put it past whackjobs in the state senate or the house.
Or the whackjob in the governor’s mansion, for that matter.
@Raven: The powers that be are going to introduce a bill requiring all license plates to say in god we trust. May the representative that introduces the bill be required to drive around 285 and drive north and south on 85 and 75. Sometimes god can’t help.
Also, too..They want a personhood amendment..
I’ve gotten the impression that neither Cain nor Gingrich have bothered to set up the state-by-state infrastructure necessary for a serious run at the nomination, and that’s why some observers have dismissed their efforts as enhanced book tours. Am I wrong about this?
@JPL: And drug testing public assistance folks.
@soonergrunt: Howabout a trapdoor and a set of welding tanks? That count?
@soonergrunt: That’s what happened in TN. Memphis passed so protections, some the state legislature passed something that banned that. So they’ve had a chance to see that tactic in action.
ETA: I’m sure we’ll see soon enough.
@harlana: Why didn’t they air this part?
Be him ever so humble.
You see, Gingrich’s biggest error was in ever thinking he had made an error.
I’m sure there were a couple of other questions he wished he would have asked instead, thinking back on it today. It was just such a weird interview in so many ways, considering it was kind of sprung on him, he elicited a lot of damning info. A question I would have asked him is, what does “horsing around” mean, and why are you showering with a young boy at night in an empty gym before spring break when you believed no one was around? For starters. The whole story is beyond belief, and I have this sickening feeling that there will be such a circus that somehow he won’t be found guilty either.
@gocart mozart: since a brokered convention has not happened in my life time, I’m not sure the exact rules, but as I understand it, the delegates are bound to their candidate on the first ballot. After that, they are free to vote their conscious. I have a feeling that if we actually have a brokered convention (and before anyone says it can’t happen, just remember what was said about impeachment, 2000, California’s recall, and Obama, just to name a few), that we’d see a few non-candidates jump in…
Cruel and unusual…
@JPL:That was my question earlier today. Why did they edit out such pertinent parts?
@Raven: The repubs are afraid the wackos won’t vote so they have to include the personhood amendment just to get them to the polls if Romney is the candidate.
I can’t even tell you how repulsed I am about testing for drugs and alcohol.
@El Cid: um, I’m pretty sure Reagan and Thatcher were fairly conventional political figures within their respective systems.
@brettvk: That’s why my money is still on Perry as the not-Romney who’ll be left standing once voting begins.
@JPL: This quickly got into ‘well I’d write this for my characters but people would complain it was too exaggeratedly unreal’ territory. If it weren’t reality, it’d be something some sort of Borat or Arrested Development or South Park moment.
t jasper parnell
@Steeplejack: You know he was a fortune hunter, which was sort of the point: between the wretched dad and the worthless suitor they ruined the poor girl.
@JPL: it was aired
@JPL: There is no asshole legislation than someone in Georgia won’t introduce.
ETA: I love YouTube.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@David Koch: It’s both magic and secret, so you and stuckinred are each correct. Heh.
see the thing about Newt…just what ‘surprise’ do you think would come out about Newt that would sink him?
if you still support him after knowing how he treated his first 2 wives like garbage, then, truly, there’s nothing else to tell you, because you’re the kind that would support any sociopath
The only quality that would bother the base is that intelekshul thing he does.
That can be taken on different levels.
Actually I think actual grifting might take a slight hit during the primaries since the accounting will have to be a bit more careful, thanks to the jackbooted thugs at the FEC.
However, the exposure will probably give him a boost for post-primary grifting. Hell, anyone attending his concession speech (campaign over!) will probably have to pay to leave the room (back to grifting!). Those diamonds and Greek vacations aren’t going to pay for themselves…
Jeb Bush time?
Jeb? Hell, at this point I’d put money on Poppy Bush.
No term limit issue THERE, tee hee.
AND, he has that “not dead” advantage over Reagan.
@JPL: Wow, given the vote in frickin MISSISSIPPI against it, this plan might not be all they think it is. I would guess that it motivated a substantial number of democrats to vote against. Consider that there were statewide races with no or virtually no democrat running.
@rikyrah: And yet, just like Giuliani, the more Newt campaigns, the less the voters like him. The greek vacation was his best shot.
Nate Silver was wrong about Herman Cain’s staying power. Nate Silver may be getting a little full of himself and his reading of data.
pseudonymous in nc
On the denominational line, let’s think for a moment about how Newt was recently welcomed into the Catholic Church. Yes, after an extended period of dealing with clerical child abusers, thrice-married serial adulterers are what they’re looking for these days. (Cradle Catholics are brought up, for the most part, to trust neither bishops nor converts.)
practically pissing my pants in anticipation of the verbal fellating that Newt is going to get from David Brooks round about, say, December 10.
Shout out for one of the more obscure Clash songs as a post title. Hilariously, the only thing the liner notes for the Clash box set say about The Right Profile is that the band have absolutely no recollection of recording it.