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You are here: Home / Science & Technology / Scientists doubt

Scientists doubt

by Tim F|  November 22, 201112:01 pm| 32 Comments

This post is in: Science & Technology, General Stupidity

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Hackers released another 5,000+ stolen emails from the University of East Anglia (ahem). As far as anyone can tell they come from the same batch as the 2009 release, and like the last one the leak looks timed to disrupt another international climate summit.

The sizzle line this time? A couple emails where scientists wonder whether their models are accurate and ask if they got anything wrong. No kidding. Ten points and a free subscription to this blog for every reporter who notes that doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good science. In my line of work you always take the time to brainstorm how you might have screwed up and thoroughly rule out reasonable alternative explanations before you submit a big paper. If you skip that step then someone in a competing lab will happily do it for you.

I have seen otherwise great scientists get overexcited about some results, publish in a rush without enough doubt and get thoroughly pantsed for it within a year or two. Freaking out like the Anglia folks apparently did is a great way to make sure that when, say, a Koch-funded competitor with your head in his crosshairs throws everything he can at your work and ends up a reluctant convert instead.

But hell, as Churchill Clemens once said, a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on. I might as well shout at clouds for all the impact a post like this will have on the tabloid reporting you will see on this over the next however many weeks.

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Reader Interactions

32Comments

  1. 1.

    Villago Delenda Est

    November 22, 2011 at 12:06 pm

    Ten points and a free subscription to this blog for every reporter who notes that doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good science

    Those points will not be collected.

    American “Journalism” nowadays is about absolute certainty that both sides do it, and not about seeking facts, let alone truth. If it turns out that the “facts” in the morning edition are not actually facts, no note is made in the correction in the afternoon edition of this discrepancy.

    That does not sell product, that does not please corporate overlords.

  2. 2.

    jeffreyw

    November 22, 2011 at 12:08 pm

    Twain

  3. 3.

    Calming Influence

    November 22, 2011 at 12:10 pm

    Plus Algore is fat.

  4. 4.

    Triassic Sands

    November 22, 2011 at 12:11 pm

    Doubt is for sissies.

    Give me good old ignorant Republican certainty any day.

    And make sure it’s Biblical certainty; substitutes will not do.

  5. 5.

    Napoleon

    November 22, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    2 or 3 weeks ago This American Life ran a piece on a scientist who was working with an amateur regarding a problem the amateur had a potential solution for. The scientist never stopped talking about what could have gone wrong with the test. He was all but hard wired to question everything.

  6. 6.

    RossInDetroit

    November 22, 2011 at 12:13 pm

    Science searches for answers. Faith presumes them.

  7. 7.

    Mike G

    November 22, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    Ten points and a free subscription to this blog for every reporter who notes that doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good science.

    In the religious Rightardosphere, being “certain” and showing “resolve” is considered a virtue in itself, no matter how stupid and reckless your thoughts or course of action. We went through eight years of this with the Bush-Cheney Intellectual Special Olympics.

    And when it all fucks up, as it frequently does with such a magical-thinking wish-fulfillment process, the Rightardosphere media machine cranks the librul blame and hate up to 11.

  8. 8.

    Campionrules

    November 22, 2011 at 12:20 pm

    The PR war against climate change continues – rather effectively I guess. This was timed, like the previous climategate 1.0, to be released prior to a major summit – Durban this time I think.

    A casual perusal of the emails seems to show that they are all prior to 2009 and thus just another part of the original hacked release.

    I await with baited breath for the onslaught of serious journalists asking serious questions.

    Note: As far as I can tell, all the previous release did was prove that Mann and a couple of other scientists are giant assholes – which somehow was supposed to invalidate their work? Weird.

  9. 9.

    JGabriel

    November 22, 2011 at 12:25 pm

    Tim F.:

    Ten points and a free subscription to this blog for every reporter who notes that doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good science.

    I’d be happy if they just figured out that it was a prerequisite for good journalism.

    .

  10. 10.

    Jewish Steel

    November 22, 2011 at 12:31 pm

    Doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good work full stop. In my janitor job before I leave a building I stop and think, “What did I miss/fuck up here tonight?” I also build redundant laps around my buildings giving me a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th time to look around and notice stuff (harder than you think, after the 3000+ time cleaning the same area)

    If you’d like to know more about the life of a janitor, seek help.

  11. 11.

    Belafon (formerly anonevent)

    November 22, 2011 at 12:31 pm

    It would be nice if Christians practiced the humility that their Jesus preached about. Science figured out that it needed to be built into their process, even if it doesn’t always get followed. Jesus did too, but it was one of the thing the Right threw out when they tossed the real Jesus overboard in favor of Action Figure Jesus.

  12. 12.

    Tim

    November 22, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    A basic part of the lab reports I assign to high school science classes is a sources of error section. Here, the students have to figure out where the experimental error is coming from. It can’t be “I mismeasured” because that’s avoidable. What about the method makes error inevitable. No experiment is perfect; all must be critiqued, refined, and improved. It’s just such a basic part of doing science, and yet it’s often misunderstood/ignored.

  13. 13.

    gnomedad

    November 22, 2011 at 12:41 pm

    The sizzle line this time? A couple emails where scientists wonder whether their models are accurate and ask if they got anything wrong. No kidding. Ten points and a free subscription to this blog for every reporter who notes that doubting your own work is a basic prerequisite for good science.

    That’s the no-win formula right there. If you insist a conclusion is robust and backed by multiple lines of evidence, you’re closed-minded; if you’re open about any uncertainty, it proves your work is bogus.

  14. 14.

    Bullsmith

    November 22, 2011 at 12:41 pm

    C’mon, we all know these “scientists” are every last one of them in on a billion dollar boondogle while the poor oil and gas companies need massive subsidies just to get buy. Hell lots of them can’t even afford to pay taxes!

  15. 15.

    Mike G

    November 22, 2011 at 12:45 pm

    Because the “global warming scam” is all about money.
    We all know how much money is in ecological research, compared to the worldwide oil and gas industry, motor vehicles, electric utilities, airlines and transport industries.

  16. 16.

    jayjaybear

    November 22, 2011 at 12:52 pm

    Fuckin’ science!
    How does it work?!

  17. 17.

    4tehlulz

    November 22, 2011 at 12:53 pm

    Climate change denialists are the worst winners in the world.

  18. 18.

    gnomedad

    November 22, 2011 at 1:01 pm

    Only ideas that threaten Galtworld are to be doubted.

  19. 19.

    Bubblegum Tate

    November 22, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    @Calming Influence:

    And “science” is just a soshulist plot, anyway.

  20. 20.

    HyperIon

    November 22, 2011 at 1:05 pm

    @jeffreyw wrote:

    Twain

    yeah, not Churchill.

  21. 21.

    Schlemizel

    November 22, 2011 at 1:06 pm

    Ya know, this would be funny except these fuckers are going to get us all killed. The tobacco deniers are still floating around 60 years after science proved the link to cancer. But that only killed a few million. 50 years from now the climate change deniers will have billions of scalps on their belts and there does not seem to be a damn thing decent people are going to do about it.

  22. 22.

    sherparick

    November 22, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    This is obviously are “slavery” issue. Everyone now knows that Slavery was “wrong.” Unfortunately, that was not the common opinion in much of the United States in 1860. A powerful interest, the “slave interest” promoted a similar story of slavery denialism. It was so successful than even if a majority of the people disliked slavery in 1860 America, the worse epithet you could call another American in most of the United States in 1860 was “Abolitionists.”

    If we really had journalism, we would have inquiries on who is behind these “hackers.” The Koch brothers? Saudi Arabia? Russia?

  23. 23.

    Mark

    November 22, 2011 at 1:10 pm

    @gnomedad:

    If you insist a conclusion is robust and backed by multiple lines of evidence, you’re closed-minded; if you’re open about any uncertainty, it proves your work is bogus.

    Don’t forget that you’re closed-minded if you refuse to consider every hair-brained theory presented without evidence.

    I can’t count the number of times I’ve encountered this – vaccines, wireless meter readers…shit, even ghosts…

  24. 24.

    gnomedad

    November 22, 2011 at 1:17 pm

    @Mark:

    Don’t forget that you’re closed-minded if you refuse to consider every hair-brained theory presented without evidence.
    I can’t count the number of times I’ve encountered this – vaccines, wireless meter readers…shit, even ghosts…

    Also, too … Obama’s birth certificate, Obama’s transcripts, Obama’s medical records … keep the rubes busy and on the defensive refuting your bullshit.

  25. 25.

    Knockabout

    November 22, 2011 at 1:18 pm

    Someone should inform Zandar before he makes an idiot out of himself with another neutrino post.

  26. 26.

    Origuy

    November 22, 2011 at 1:26 pm

    @Jewish Steel:

    If you’d like to know more about the life of a janitor, seek help.

    All I know is that Newt Gingrich thinks a fifth-grader could do it.

  27. 27.

    Yutsano

    November 22, 2011 at 1:34 pm

    @Knockabout: Your schtick officially entered old status.

  28. 28.

    Moonbatman

    November 22, 2011 at 1:52 pm

    Wingnut butthurt over Phil Jones deleting emails to avoid FOIA requests.
    Old News Guys.
    Reminds me of the witchhunt against Micheal Mann, which Penn State cleaned him of all the swiftboating allegations.
    And we know Penn State would never cover up misconduct of a facility member.

  29. 29.

    Marc

    November 22, 2011 at 3:24 pm

    @Moonbatman:

    Ignorant, arrogant, and wrong. This is either an excellent spoof of a reactionary or a wonderful illustration of scientific illiteracy.

    A random link to a science denial site. A dark insinuation that problems in the Penn State football program imply corruption in (multiple) investigations of a Penn State scientist. Lies about deleted emails.

    If stupidity was a fuel source you’d be a rich man.

  30. 30.

    Triassic Sands

    November 22, 2011 at 3:44 pm

    @Marc:

    If stupidity was a fuel source you’d be a rich man.

    If stupidity were gravity, the Republican Party would be a black hole.

  31. 31.

    Maus

    November 22, 2011 at 3:46 pm

    Self-criticism and verification of reports is a sign of weakness. Conservatives know their facts are sound, especially when they’re not, and CERTAINLY when they’re out of whole cloth.

  32. 32.

    Jewish Steel

    November 22, 2011 at 4:12 pm

    @Origuy: Well, those tiny little fingers could really get into some crevices, I would imagine.

    In addition to make a sweet pair of Nikes.

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