I think that reports of Mitt’s demise may be exaggerated (I just like the song this title comes from), but he’s 30 points down in Florida, is a piss-poor interviewee, and will eventually start getting hammered for Romneycare (saying that avoiding paying insurance is “not American” can’t go over well with the Teahadists).
I can’t wait for the next debate.
Tom Levenson
Popcorn futures. I’ve been telling y’all for months. Buy popcorn futures, retire by March.
As a MA resident, all I can say is that the rest of the nation’s GOP is discovering what us local yokels did some years ago: Mitt is poison, regardless of your affiliation.
(Hint: he was a one term gov. because (a) governating bored his awesomeness and (b) he would have lost had he run again, which blot on his resume (and ego) could not be permitted.)
I am enjoying this.
lamh35
I was just reading Josh Marshall’s analysis of this over at TPM. It’s pretty spot on, IMHO. Ya’ll should check it out.
Mitt’s Darkening Horizon
schrodinger's cat
[email protected]
Is Mitt knocking on heaven’s door? Did you ever post the photos of the NYC meetup? Or did I miss them.
aretino
If I were Newt, I would put myself in an automated loop saying “RomneyCare is subsidized abortions for illegal immigrants” until the end of January. That should just about take care of it.
srv
> I can’t wait for the next debate.
Sometimes, I feel like hippies should rethink their positions on torture.
eemom
knock knock knockin on Heaven’s door…
Yes, a beautiful song.
Jenny
Baring Newt being found with a dead girl or live boy, Romney is toast.
He’s losing Iowa by 20 pts. He’s losing South Carolina by 25 pts. Now he’s losing Florida by 30. And those margins will only get worse as the other non-Romneys drop out.
Mitt even had a meltdown yesterday on Fxed News.
Culture of Truth
Mitt may be down, but who else do they have? Cain? Bachmann? Ron Paul? That frothy guy?
Oh let me guess – Newt Gingrich, the ethics-free philandering carnival barker with the unique ability to piss off any person he is contact with inside of 30 seconds. Sure he’s the flavor of the month – there is a core that loves a candidate willing to tell people that all their problems are their fault and to just die already. But extreme assholism has, ultimately, a limited appeal.
schrodinger's cat
@eemom: Which version do you like the best. Dylan or the cover by November Rain, or by the cover by Avril Lavigne?
Culture of Truth
I am now seeing banner ads for Tagg, the pet tracker.
trollhattan
Where was ol’ man McCain in the polls at this point in ’07? I canna remember these four years later.
Villago Delenda Est
I don’t know. I don’t trust Newt not to fuck up over the next three weeks.
Ovenmitt, however, is far from immune to Kinsey gaffes. Or Mitt gaffes. Or gaffes, in general. He’s a serious gaffer. Not in the nice Samwise sense, either.
Tom Q
@Culture of Truth: Not within the Republican party. He can definitely get the nomination.
EconWatcher
You have to figure that Rove or someone else in the Republican establishment has some fresh Newt-killing material handy. We know the man can’t behave himself. I expect some shoes to drop soon.
Benjamin Franklin
The Rubes are apoplectic over the prospect of having to vote for Mitt, but they are ready to do so. The trope for them is ABO ! (anybody but Obama) and despite what I’ve read in comments here, they WILL NOT stay home in November.
Don’t underestimate the horde.
Hunter Gathers
You could have irrigated the entire Gobi Desert for 50 years with the flop sweat Mittens produced during that interview. He’s been running for 5 years now, and his growth as a politician cannot be charted without a magnifying glass.
Gingrich will beat Mittens because the GOP base knows that Gingrich is the only one with the balls to call Obama a ‘food stamp president’ (i.e. – nigger) to his face. They could give a shit about policy or elect-ability. They want someone who will insult Obama constantly, to his face, hoping that he will get flummoxed or show a flash of anger so they can scream to the heavens about how right they all are, that Obama’s nothing more than a vacant empty suit who’s lost without his teleprompter and/or a stereotypical angry black man. They want an explicitly race based campaign, and Gingrich will give it to them.
Chyron HR
@Culture of Truth:
The thing about being the “flavor of the month” is that if that month happens to be January 2012, you’re probably going to get the nomination.
Tom Q
@lamh35: I’d say Marshall has been VERY slow to come to this realization. For most of the past year, he’s been securely within the “Romney’s got it cold” Beltway conventional wisdom, and somewhat contemptuous of those of us who thought all along something like this was possible.
trollhattan
@Benjamin Franklin:
That’s pretty much my stance as well. They hate them some President Obama and I just don’t see them staying home election day. Could affect fundraising, but corporate cash Uber Alles.
lamh35
Also James Fallows as a good post up about Mitt’s FoxNews interview and an interesting take on Mitt’s “Call me Mitt” name “flip-flop” at the CNN debate. Another interesting read.
On W. Mitt Romney, and the Mystery of Names
Tom Q
@Benjamin Franklin: Very few are saying they’d stay at home in November rather than vote for Romney. What many of us feel is that, given an option other than Romney in the primary, they might very well take it.
The Ancient Randonneur
Newt should be melting down by Friday so that means Huntsman is up as the next NotMittens. I just saw Huntsman speak the other day. He’s credible and seems pretty well versed on the issues but working for the NaziSocia1istCryptoMuslim in the White House is going to make it tough for him. Everyone who came out to see him was a very nicely dressed, conservative white person. Most of them looked like the people you would find in the Dartmouth Alumni magazine.
MattF
I do wonder how long Noot can keep up the ‘elder statesman’ schtick. And I also wonder if Noot, in his heart, really wants to be President. He has his shopping sprees at Tiffany, he gets into the pants of a hard-eyed blonde– what more could he want?
srv
Who will think of the
childrenbase?Raven
My Back Pages, Knock Knock Knockin
(Bob Dylan, Roger McGuinn, Tom Petty, Neil Young, Eric Clapton & George Harrison) / Knockin’ On Heaven’s Door (Everyone)
MikeJ
@trollhattan:
Mason-Dixon 12/3 Huckabee 32 Romney 20 McCain 7
Strategic Vision (R) 11/30 Huckabee 27 Romney 24 McCain 6
Zogby 11/29 Huckabee 25 Romney 26 McCain 5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html#polls
Culture of Truth
Well, they have to pick somebody. Unfortunately.
Since I can’t ‘reply’ I’ll say to Hunter Gathers that sounds about right, since I keep hearing about what a great debater Gingrich is. All evidence to the contrary.
I know a non-Romney asshole can get the nomination. I’m a bit surprised at the Gingrich surge, though on paper he’s qualified. I hope they realize what they are buying in the 2012 model of the Newt.
Frankensteinbeck
@Hunter Gathers:
…you might be right. Newt is an asshole. That’s what he does. Listen to him speak for 30 seconds. He sounds pompous and angry and spiteful. And the base has made it clear they LIKE that. Since he IS pompous and angry and spiteful, he may be unable to walk it back in the general.
@trollhattan: and @Benjamin Franklin:
Nuh uh. The trick is Voter Enthusiasm. It’s not that they’ll stay home en mass. If even 1-2% of them can’t bring themselves to vote for the Mormon Backslider or the Ugly And Irritating Guy, that’s a gigantic bonus to Obama’s chances of winning.
Jenny
@Tom Q: This.
Josh is a condensing elitist.
John O
Surely I’m not the only one here who fears the Newt in the general.
He scares me. He’s a very good grifter, and we’re vulnerable as a country to a clever con-man.
CaseyL
I admit to being gobsmacked by the Newt boomlet (Newtlet?). Just a couple months ago most of the press he was getting concerned his credit limit at Tiffany’s.
If the polling is accurate, The Newticle does pose more of a threat to Romney than any of the other flavors-of-the-week, if only because most of their support is shifting to Gingrich as The Last Best Hope for ABR.
Cris (without an H)
ew
Tom Q
@Frankensteinbeck: Given a choice (as a Democrat), I’d prefer to bet on Ugly Irritating Guy keeping the remaining not-really-asshole potential GOP voters away from the polls (or even persuading them to cover nostrils and vote for Obama).
jheartney
Cain went down amidst a sudden set of racy accusations, apparently out of nowhere, but with Karl Rove chortling in the background. Newt may suddenly face a set of embarrassing revelations courtesy of the Turdblossom opposition research machine.
EconWatcher
@John O:
In these economic conditions, with Europe apparently about to take a swan dive, you’re a fool if you’re not worried about the R nominee becoming president. And a Newt presidency is one ghastly prospect to ponder.
But the man has baggage.
Frankensteinbeck
@John O:
The problem is that he’s abrasive. I’m much more scared of Romney. Heck, I was more scared of Perry. America has no problem electing a congenial moron. Gingrich is fat, ugly, and looks and sounds perpetually angry.
@Tom Q:
See immediately above!
ajr22
Until someone other than Mitt starts getting actual votes, I still consider him a safe bet to get the nomination. I have been waiting for some of these Tea party candidates to start bashing Mitt, who up to this point hasn’t been hit as hard as I would have thought. A lot of the bottom tier candidates have been afraid to attack the eventual nom, but now that he is showing some weakness they will pounce. Mitt just is vulnerable to attack on so many fronts. He has flipped on core base issues especially abortion, supported an individual mandate, and “is the guy who fired you” Also too, he is a Mormon Dum, dum, dum, dum, dum…
DougJ
@schrodinger’s cat:
I’m not sure we ever got photos, no one emailed me them!
John O
@Frankensteinbeck:
I think Newt has the ability to make people think he’s as smart as Obama. You know, morons.
trollhattan
@MikeJ:
Thanks. I was half-remembering the wheels coming off the McCain Happy-Hour Bus at this point in ’07, while the crazies had at one another. I’m not ready to start predicterating the nominee, even after the obvious shills have all dropped out. Crazy people nominating a crazy person add too many variables.
Roger Moore
@Culture of Truth:
Yes, but that limited appeal has a very strong overlap with the Republican base. You’ve got to know your audience, and for the Republican nomination, that audience consists of a lot of people who like assholes.
Frankensteinbeck
@John O:
Oh, he could make a lot of people think he’s smart. Those same people don’t give a damn if he’s smart, they only care if they like him personally. And Gingrich is a profoundly uncharismatic man.
Cris (without an H)
Why not?
trollhattan
@Frankensteinbeck:
I really don’t see Newton connecting with women voters. Or many of either gender younger than 40.
A Humble Lurker
I don’t want Newt anywhere near the Presidency, but I must admit I would die to see him debate Obama. That would be all kinds of fun.
Davis X. Machina
I’m still buying Romneys, and at the market.
You better hope that’s the right move.
When Romney wins the White House — because the American median voter knows the single best way to make things better is to hand the government to the very party that’s running, loud and proud, on a promise to do things guaranteed make things worse, known to make things worse, and that have made things worse, several times, in the lifetime of that same voter(1) — he might not blow up the world.
He probably will, but he might not. Newt will.
(1) Cf. David Cameron and the Tories.
dmsilev
@MikeJ: But that’s Iowa. McCain didn’t really compete there. McCain’s victory (over Romney) in New Hampshire is what launched him on his path to the nomination. According to
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_(United_States)_presidential_primaries,_2008#New_Hampshire
Romney had support in late Nov/early Dec in the low thirties, with McCain and Rudy! both in the high teens. In the event, McCain got 38% of the vote, Romney 32%, and Rudy was 4th with about 9%.
trollhattan
@A Humble Lurker:
I remember him on TDS and in order to make some argument, “corrected” Jon Stewart that (shoe-bomber) Richard Reid was American, not British. Obama would not let him get away with lies in a debate, and is certainly smart enough to catch them as they poured forth.
Of course, Mittens will do the same thing with bigger shoulders.
feebog
Hat tip to MikeJ:
Note that the eventual nominee was in single digits at this point in 2007. Also note that Huckabee won the Iowa caucus. You know, Huckabee, the guy with weekend show on Faux Noose.
This ain’t over yet. There is going to be a lot of Media huffing and puffing, but the truth is that very few delegates are at stake in these early races. The first six states get a 50% delgate penalty for moving up their primaries and the delegates are awarded proportionally, not winner take all. There is plenty of time for Newt to fuck this up.
smintheus
@EconWatcher: There’s another factor almost nobody is addressing: foreign policy. Remember how CW in 2007-8 was that foreign policy would be central to the campaign, and then the economy took center stage? The reverse could be true this year, especially with the Euro meltdown now.
Will Republican voters want to cede foreign policy to Obama? Almost none of them come off as knowledgeable in the slightest, and here Mittens is very vulnerable. Newt at least can fake it.
Republicans want more than just somebody who’ll be rude to Obama. They also fervently want to believe their candidate is smarter…which is why I’ve assumed all along that Bachmann, Perry, and Cain would fade fast, and why a couple months ago I predicted that Newt could stage a comeback. He’s what a dumb person thinks a smart person sounds like, and what an ill-informed rube thinks an expert ought to be. Republicans I know try desperately to convince me, and themselves, that Obama is a dimwit. But I think they realize he’s not, so I think the whole not-Romney search has been about finding a not-Romney who’ll toss them the red meat but who also seems smarter than Obama.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
So will Rove try to rescue Mittins? After all Rove is a Republican first and foremost. From a GOP point of view, sure Newt can’t win the general, but he will motivate the base to go vote which is good news for the rest of the GOP ticket. And that’s something Mittens can’t do.
aretino
After all these months praying for the Mittpocalypse, I hardly know what to do now that it is upon us.
Jenny
@smintheus:
This is true, and would be odd considering their anti-intellectual hostility. They loved that Shurb and Palin were “regular people” who didn’t read, just like them.
But being racist, they just can stand that a black is smarter than them, so their sick minds are dying to reestablish their perception of racial supremacy.
Hell, just think about the recent crap about IQ and race. Teh dregs need to feel that they’re not at the bottom of the totem pole.
Capn America
@schrodinger’s cat: lol I too remember the days when Axl Rose was starting riots as the lead singer for November Rain :P
For the record, GNR version is best version.
Mnemosyne
@MikeJ:
To me, that says it’s going to be Romney after all — the remaining establishment Republicans will turn out to vote for him to try and avoid the humiliation of a Gingrich or Cain nomination.
I think that people who are scared about Gingrich winning don’t remember the guy very well. Remember, this is the guy who shut down the government because he was upset at being sat at the back of Air Force One — and said so! Publicly! To the media! He’s way, way too thin-skinned and impulsive to make it through to the general election with Obama as his opponent.
Chuck Butcher
Counting Mittens out at this point is … premature, to say the least. Newt has proven to wear on the public quite quickly and for pretty obvious reasons. If that proves true – again – then who is left?
It pays to remember that Newt has never run in any more than a Congressional District. Such an election involves less than 500K population… I’ve run in one and I’d never even think about a national nomination.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodinger’s cat: You meant the cover by Guns N’ Roses, right? Dylan wins, but the GnR cover is not bad – I even say that as an non-fan of the band.
On topic: I would be stunned, shocked, and amazed if Newton is the nominee. I would be disgusted beyond words and probably fall victim to total cynicism if Newton were to win the Presidency.
jheartney
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: I think they are really going for defeating Obama this time; the economy won’t be this bad in 2016, and all the effort of blocking in the Senate will be for nothing if they can’t get him out now. Obamacare will become another Medicare (i.e. politically impregnable) if they can’t get it repealed before it goes into effect, and the only way to do that is to own the White House. Plus if the Dems get a few more SCOTUS votes, lots of stuff (Citizens United anyone?) could be vulnerable.
Bottom line, they can’t afford to throw this presidential election away.
schrodinger's cat
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes that’s what I meant. I was trying to do three other things while commenting and November Rain is what I associate Guns n Roses with, the most, hence the mistake.
I have to go eat dinner now, fish tacos with a green salad, with mango, avacado and spinach, then I will be back.
schrodinger's cat
@Capn America:
My bad! Was doing few other things in addition to commenting. Easy mistake to make since that’s the song I associate Guns n Roses with, the most.
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes you are right. I was just practicing being a Punditubbie by making dumb factual errors.
Omnes Omnibus
@schrodinger’s cat: Oh, well done then. Excellent job. I commend you.
sloan
Well then that would be Saturday at 8 p.m. EST on Fox News. It’s called the “Mike Huckabee Presidential Forum”.
Participants: Romney, Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, Santorum, Paul all confirmed. Cain, Huntsman unconfirmed.
I might actually start watching these things if Mitt and Newt really go at it. Could be a good one!
Full list of GOP debates here.
smintheus
@Jenny:
Yup, it’s one of the strangest contradictions in the Republican base. They try to convince themselves that their ill-informed dimwit candidates are just authentically smart, whereas Democrats have only the equivalent of book-larnin’. Deeper problem is that their candidates often lack basic knowledge because they don’t have basic real-world experience…and it’s hard to dismiss a Democratic advantage in this area as the stuff of egg-heads. So Republican voters end up desperately looking to hang onto any sign that their candidate is really clever.
Brandon
Looking at the historic polling from 2008 makes me think that Mitt is screwed. His numbers are nearly identical, meaning that in the last 5 years he has not convinced even one more Republican to vote for him. The ABM effect was even evident back then as well, because as Guiliani faded McCain picked up his voters and Mitt’s numbers barely moved, if at all. We are seeing the same think play out now in 2012 and basically the last ABM standing will likely get the nomination. Cain was knee capped and Newt is probably next, leaving Huntsman and Perry as pretty much the only remaining viable ABM candidates. But I wouldn’t rule Newt out of the running completely because he checks all the boxes that Republican base voters are looking for to run against Obama, including, as others have oted, the fake public intellectual credentials and capability of running a dog whistle campaign based entirely on racial resentment.
Ken
@trollhattan: I really don’t see Newton connecting with women voters. Or many of either gender younger than 40.
Yet another reason to do whatever it takes to prevent them from voting.
Anoniminous
This graph shows what happened last time. Note McCain was hovering around zero point nowhere until (about) the beginning of December.
Ian
@aretino:
Just theoretically here, shouldn’t Republicans be FOR mandatory abortions on immigrants?
Ian
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Romney will not ever be Preznit. EVAH. He is too phony, to calculating. He polls well now because he does not say stupid enough shit like his drunk or religious or cheating rivals do. He looks better because he is not clownish. Once his rivals disappear (or so we may hope win) Romney will be seen for his lying selfish sack of crap. If he wins the nom, the Dems will let shit fly harder than any of these repbulicans have
Trinity
Newt does not want to be president. The job is entirely too much work. Why would he give up the plush lifestyle he has now for actual work?
No way. Newt will torpedo his campaign himself as delicately as possible if he has to. He has no desire to actually win this contest. He’s just grifting.
aretino
@Ian: No, those anchor babies should be starved to death or die of untreated diseases after their mothers are forced to bear them.