Some of you may wonder why I still think that Gingrich will crater before the last day of Kwanzaa. Paul Gottfried suggests that maybe Republicans will remember that (just like Goldwater!) Newt proposes to solve every problem in existence by throwing the federal government at it. Gottfried left out the great moment when Newt proposed that we federalize lower Manhattan to stop a community group from building a mosque (the velvet painting of Reagan in Peggy Noonan’s basement shrine cried real tears over that one). As with all things Newt there is never enough space.
If you look at the RCP poll-a-rama here, Gingrich has just about hit that peak when the GOP base starts to feel a little queasy about their latest hero, and historically Newt tends to flame out as fiercely as he flames in. Unless I’m crazy Callista will get her man back just in time for some last-minute holiday deals at Tiffany’s.
jwb
I hope you’re wrong because Gingrich would be both a more entertaining and easier opponent for the Dems to run against. And Gingrich has the capability, if the nominee, to turn so toxic that he’d bring down the rest of the GOP with him, putting seats in the House and Senate in play that the Dems can only dream about at present. I don’t think Romney has any of the upside for Dems, and he’s likely to minimize GOP losses in other races even if he loses the Presidency.
different-church-lady
I’m telling you guys, Huntsman’s gonna have his turn leading this thing before Super Tuesday.
Warren Terra
I heard today that while he’s been holding out on other vendors (private jets, for millions), Newt’s campaign has been paying promptly and in huge sums for mailing lists and possibly other fundraising services, all going into the pockets of groups controlled by one Newton Leroy Gingrich of Georgia.
cokane
I dunno man
The difference is there are fewer credible people in the race now. The wingnuts are all leaving Perry, Bachmann, and of course Cain. There’s no one to split the crazy vote any more. I think Newt has a solid chance to win as the anti-Romney.
chopper
the only thing funnier than this fucking clown car is watching everyone inside fighting over whose turn it is to drive.
anna
Naw, he won’t flame out with the base. There is NOTHING Newt can do to make the base turn on him. He is their last hope for THE ONE who will take down Obama in a mean, vicious way. Romney wouldn’t be vicious enough for them. They want Obama’s blood. Their hatred of Obama is stronger than their faux beliefs in small government, anti-science, family values, fiscal conservatism, anti-choice…all values which Newt has thrown over at one time or another. Their hope is that Newt will wither Obama will his superior intellect (?) and can ground Obama into the ground with his debate skills. They’d rather their nominee be “Strong & Wrong” than “Weak and Meek.” They would nominate Hitler himself if they thought he could take out Obama…their hatred for Obama is all consuming, to the detriment of their party as a whole. And, they don’t want to just take him out, they want him to take a beating. He’s way too uppity.
kc
God, I hope Newt can hang on long enough to be the GOP nominee.
It’s too much to hope for, I know . . .
kc
@Warren Terra:
That sounds like classic Newt, Warren. Where’d you hear that?
Legalize
I think you’re looking at Newton Leroy though the wrong lens, i.e. the lens of someone who gives a shit about policy. If the Teabillies believe that Newton Leroy will piss off liberals more than another candidate, then there will be no flame out. The base is stupid, and they resent it. Newton Leroy is their idea of a smart man. He makes them *feel* good because he validates their rank prejudices. Perry, Cain, and Crazy Eyes, gave them momentary wood, but Newton Leroy can go all night, baby.
sukabi
between his love of Tiffany’s shopping and the Trump ‘debate’ he’s bound to blow a wheel prior to Christmas….
and then it will start to look good for Huntsman as the ‘not Romney’ candidate….
xochi
Someone’s got to play the part of the Tea Party standard bearer against the establishment, and since Newt’s negatives are already on the table (well, there’s always more, but none of it will come as a shock the way that Cain’s philandering and Perry’s unreadiness did) he has a good chance of weathering this one out. I don’t think this means he’ll get nominated, but he’ll make things worse for Romney. Get the popcorn.
amk
newt is the ideal representative of the rethuglican party of today. So he will be the nominee notwithstanding all that panicky, hair-on-fire response from willard. The question is who newt will choose as his veep to bring in the disenchanted repubs.
Hungry Joe
Because for the last couple of years everybody’s been pretty much wrong about all the horses in the race (“Pass the popcorn!” after the 2008 election; “Obama’s toast!” when the health-care proposals semi-flamed out one by one and the economy continued rolling downhill; “Where’s that popcorn again?” as the clown car careens), I see no reason to put stock in any bird-entrail readings right now. “Nobody knows anything,” William Goldman said about the inner workings of Hollywood; ditto here. Chaos, randomness, madness all about us. Damn near anything could happen.
MikeJ
BTW, Rick Perry’s video finally topped 10,000 “like”s but he’s only 90% of the way to a half million “dislike”s.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
This is more like a Reality Show than politics. Remember Newt flamed out last Spring with Tiffanies and various foot in the mouth moments. But the shock is gone so that’s why they will stick to him (and what are they going to do, go to Huntsman?)
I think the real basic truth with the Right is it’s all talk radio from a bunch of old, rage filled white guys. Newt is the best rage filled, old white guy in the Republican party.
schrodinger's cat
I don’t think high-end retailers need to have sales. That just dilutes their brand. May be now Newt can afford to buy her $200,000 Birkin.
Benjamin Franklin
“Damn near anything could happen.”
Indeed. “Other than that, how did you enjoy the play, Mrs Obama”
Culture of Truth
It would perhaps be too much to ask for the race to come down to two guys named Newton Leroy and Barack Hussein.
EconWatcher
Am I the only one who thinks a man who repeatedly blows massive amounts at Tiffany’s on his wife probably has a lot to apologize for (that he’d really, really like her to keep quiet for now)?
Hunter Gathers
Maybe if Mittens is given just a few more weeks, he can finally close the deal with GOPer voters he’s been trying to make for the past 3 years.
Memo to Mitt – if your crush still won’t fuck you after 3 years of begging and pleading, no amount of Paul Ryan fluffing will get you into your crush’s pants. They fucking hate you, Willard. Take the hint and go spend time with your money and your shitty fucking offspring. Your crush is currently getting the shit fucked out of it in the back of Newt’s Trans-Am. Your crush wants the guy who will tell the All-State QB that he’s nothing more than an uppity nigger; you don’t even have the balls to call him a socia!ist even when you bad mouth him behind his back. Give it up and go home before your wife gets pissed off about the amount of your own money you’re spending. You’re a fucking loser, Willard. Deal with it.
Sebastian
It will be Newt. Obama’s luck in choosing opponents will not fail him.
sven
Again, the myth that conservatives dislike a powerful government. This is clearly wrong. They enthusiastically embrace government power when it is aligned with their goals. Foreign military adventures, Check. Restrictions on reproductive rights, check. Police violence at OWS, check. Newt’s willingness to use the federal government needs to be seen in this context. As long as big government is being used to stop the scary fureigners from building a community center, AOK. I would be genuinely surprised if Newt’s government activism hurt him.
Benjamin Franklin
@EconWatcher:
His answer to Wolf “It’s a rotating credit line”
Culture of Truth
Regardless, the upcoming debate should be different from all previous ones. There are only possible candidates left, and both must go after each with everything they’ve got.
Fortunately for both, they have plenty of ammunition.
carpeduum
I just don’t get you typing monkeys and the professional left (typing monkeys that actually make money).
You all seem hell bent on supporting issues against your best interests. It’s in ALL our best interests that Newt wins. Yet you morons seem to be cheerleading for his implosion.
You stupid stupid people.
Culture of Truth
So what matters more to GOP primary voters – fidelity to wife and church, or fidelity to conservative values?
There’s only one answer, and you know it as well as I do.
amk
@Sebastian: yeah, Obama was so lucky to have easy-peasy opponents like Hillary.
Warren Terra
@kc:
That’s the embarrassing part – I heard it on the Slate Gabfest podcast, which I’ve continued to listen to even as I’ve grown to rather dislike (or worse) its panelists, because it’s a pretty good way to keep up with the conventional wisdom inside the beltway. And occasionally they do good work keeping me informed about interesting cases at the supreme court, or tell little tidbits like this one.
Benjamin Franklin
More like a wake, wherein we drunkenly speak ill of the dead.
Gingrich, as nominee, will not happen.
catclub
@EconWatcher: This. It took a while for the Cain acccusers to accumulate. It is already known that one of Newt’s ex-wives is not his biggest fan, but she has not done recent big interviews. Other affairs?
Who knows. Does anyone believe that only one intern was subject to his attentions?
Barry
Like the post. Can’t say I agree with you. I’ve got nothing to base it on other than Cokane’s insight above that all the other crazies are withering away, leaving the baboon chorus with little choice but to support the fat, flacid toad or the polished turd. I think Newton is in it to win it and I predict I spend a lot of time laughing next year. Perhaps laughing and crying, but certainly laughing.
Cat Lady
Newt represents the old white farts’ id that just wants to yell at everyone else in the world to get off their lawn, and to tell that uppity usurping nigra in the WH to go back to Kenya. There isn’t a bigger tell about what the base wants this election to be about then Newt calling Obama the food-stamp president. I say, good – now we all know and the dog whistling can stop since the dogs have all come running. Romney, for all his many faults, isn’t a stone cold hater, and that’s why he won’t be the nominee.
Samara Morgan
@kc: Newt will be the nominee.
No one will talk about the Mormon Factor, but its the black hole in the room.
It is deforming reality (Mitts relative electability, Newts anti-conservative baggage) with its superdense specific gravity.
its too late for another savior.
The Moar You Know
The chattering class would have you believe that Gingrich is some kind of big thinker with personality issues, the reality is that Gingrich is a narrow-minded opportunist and a self-absorbed prick, with a supreme talent for losing his shit right when it would be in his best interest not to.
He’ll be done by early January, unless Obama manages to goad him into lighting his own funeral pyre sooner.
Culture of Truth
One difference I’ve noticed between conservatives and progressives is the persistent conservative supersition that wishes become reality.
Rick Massimo
Telling non-white people that they do not qualify as Americans is so important to “conservatives” that the full weight of the federal government must be brought to bear on it.
It’s not even that they go through that thought process consciously (they don’t really go through any thought process consciously) – it’s not that they think “Well, I DO have an aversion to enlisting the federal government in a local issue, but this is so important that I’ll put that aside.”
They want what they want when they want it and they’ll use whatever they can lay their hands on to get it. “Fk those libruls” is the only thing they care about. Nothing else. Not the country or the people who live in it. Nothing.
Brachiator
Not really. It’s just Fantasy League Political Football. Fun to predict stuff, but not half as interesting as watching how the actual political contest plays out.
EconWatcher
@carpeduum:
Sorry, but I do not agree. If Gingrich gets the nomination, that significantly increases the chances of Obama’s reelection, yes. But it also signficantly increases the chances of President Gingrich. And while I agree that the latter possibility seems pretty remote right now, it could be a lot less remote if everything craters between now and November, which certainly could happen.
And no, I don’t think Gingrich and Willard would be about the same, or even close, in the White House. Romney is too spineless to do anything really crazy. Gingrich? Buckle up, baby. He’s a man of vision, a man of History. He’ll want to do something Really Big. God help us.
catclub
@amk: Hillary should have won in a walk, but did not, partly because she picked a campaign manager who could not count delegates.
Hillary with a competent campaign manager would have been formidable, she was even without one.
Judas Escargot
I don’t get the logic of Huntsman as a viable not-Romney.
I keep hearing that the evangelical primary voters will never back a Mormon in the primary, hence the endless search for a suitable not-Romney. But Huntsman is just as much as Mormon as Romney.
Huntsman might get his turn to bask in the bright loving sunshine that is the Villagers’ attention, but if the base isn’t going for Romney, they’re not going to go for Huntsman, either. And, even today, it’s votes that win primaries in the end.
cokane
@carpeduum: I disagree. Even if Gingrich wins the nomination, Republican victory is not impossible. It’s less likely, but people would be foolish to write off a campaign that will raise more money than any in history.
Paul in KY
@different-church-lady: Can’t see it right now. Perceived as soft-on-Obama & has same Mormon problem as Mittens.
Villago Delenda Est
I’d rather see Gingrich in the general than Romney. Newt would be an easier opponent for Obama.
But I fear that Newt will, in his inimitable style, flame out before New Year’s Eve. As I’ve said before, FSM doesn’t love us enough for Newt to be the nominee. We need to suffer. Someone out there used ketchup instead of marinara, and we all have to pay for that.
WereBear
Newt already flamed out once; he’s baaaaaaaaaaaaack!
To me, that indicates he won’t be unseated again.
Tom Hilton
If it’s not Newt, it’s Romney–and the more Romney campaigns, the lower he polls and the worse his net favorables get.
According to a poll yesterday (or thereabouts), Gingrich and Romney are the only two candidates a majority of Republicans consider “acceptable”–and Gingrich is at 61%, Romney at 54%, and 41% consider Romney “unacceptable”.
Gingrich is a grifter, and I don’t think he even wants to get elected (but he knows getting the nomination would vastly increase his earning potential)…but that doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Republicans.
Samara Morgan
@anna: exactly.
check out NRO.
the horror…the horror…..Mistah Buckley, he daid.
Tony J
@amk:
Well, since he thinks John ‘Shoot them! Shoot them in the face!’ Bolton has the kind of diplomatic skills America requires from its Secretary of State, the possibilities are endless. What’s Liz Cheney got lined up? Or Joe Arpaio?
Scott
Ehh, I still think it’ll be Romney. It’s a long, loooong time ’til the convention, and it’ll be a minor miracle if Newt doesn’t do something to take himself out of the running before January 1.
Newt would be an easier opponent, because he’s so intensely dislikeable, but I don’t expect anything to be easy this election cycle. I think it’ll be Romney.
Samara Morgan
@Tom Hilton: see NRO above ^.
Only Newt can express the deep visceral hatred conservatives feel for Obama.
And the idiots actually think Newt will crush Obama in a debate….now that is some magical thinking.
Willard is too milquetoast to carry the weight of their fury.
Cam
@Warren Terra: The Washington Post wrote aboute this yesterday:
Paul in KY
@carpeduum: I don’t think they are cheerleading. They are just making predictions based on what they know about Gingrich.
I would like him to be the candidate. I have always felt I haven’t lived the kind of life that would be rewarded with Newt Gingrich – GOP nominee.
Culture of Truth
If we posit that Gingrich is entirely a grifter, the best thing would be for him to go down if noble, fighting defeat to Obama. In a movement that has fully embraced victimhood, he could be the greatest conservative martyr of modern times.
Judas Escargot
@EconWatcher:
True. But he’s also too spineless to stand up to his own base. Or to radicals in Congress.
IMO, we end-users would get fed the same bowl of crap with either administration in power, because the GOP is pretty united in their policy goals. It’s just that with the Crazed Amphibian, the crazy would come from the top down. With the Mild-Mannered Mormon, we’d basically end up governed by a GOP “Parliament” for at least two years.
There’d be a big difference in style between the two, but in terms of real-world substance, we’d all get to feast on the same bol de merde.
Samara Morgan
@Scott: lets us bet.
the Mormon Factor is going to take Mitt out.
Sully is starting to talk about it— soon the pollsters will have to.
Even Nate the Great.
JWL
“As with all things Newt there is never enough space”.
There’s an pt epitaph for the Man from Georgia.
I torn in my thinking whether a Gingrich flame-out is good or bad. On one hand, only one person on the planet gains the GOP nomination every fours years, and is one of the two people who will definitely be elected to the presidency. The odds a person has to defy to position themselves as one of the two are astromical. And suddenly, the brassiest ring in human history is before their grasp. Make no mistake about it, Gingrich could win. And that’s bad.
However, by nominating Gingrich, the party’s clown college element will stand exposed. And anything that damages or diminishes the sinister powers that control that party is good. But that success is hardly assured, which gets me back to a fear of a Gingrich presidency.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@catclub:
That wasn’t just her campaign manager. Hillery had a lot of enemies inside the Democratic party she never made peace with. I think her problem was she assumed the nomination was her right and didn’t do the detail work needed.
amk
@Tony J: No, newt has got the wingnutz bloc covered. He needs the establishment & moneyed types for the GE for both the cash and the votes. And they’ll demand their pound of flesh. I wouldn’t be surprised if it even the other mormon since, if, god forbid, this ticket wins, newt will to too old (and not too interested) in a rerun and then huntsman can slide into the seat.
Hill Dweller
Willard is out there today telling anyone willing to listen that he loves Paul Ryan’s plan to kill Medicare.
Even if Romney wins the nomination, that endorsement will kill him in the general.
cokane
@Judas Escargot: Some truth here, but it’s no complete. Foreign policy for one, I think Newt would be way more aggressive. Drone strikes in Iran and such.
Also who the candidate is will affect the outcome of congressional votes. A Newt nomination may guarantee Warren wins in Massachusetts and Brown wins in Ohio for example. There will be all kinds of down-tickets effects, which will alter the make up of congress.
schrodinger's cat
I have no prediction, I have no insight into the minds of the people that make up the GOP base. I think Romney would make a more formidable general election candidate than Newt. He may be the smartest person on the GOP debate stage. He doesn’t seem all that smart to me, he seems rather a pompous mean old person, in love with the sound of his own voice.
trollhattan
O/T but WTF, house Republicans?
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/12/gops-keystone-pipeline-gambit-distracts-from-other-controversial-payroll-tax-cut-measures.php?ref=fpa
different-church-lady
@Paul in KY: And that’s exactly why: it’s inconceivable. It’s so damn ridiculous that it’s the only thing that could possibly happen.
Newt was a dead man running until all the other bottle rockets burned out. Why is the wheel gonna stop turning now?
trollhattan
@schrodinger’s cat:
This, plus his love of being in front of anything with a lens will be his undoing.
amk
@schrodinger’s cat: willard’s phony cackle of a laugh alone is a winner.
Brachiator
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Hillary’s problem wasn’t just enemies in the Democratic party, it was her (and Bill’s) arrogance in assuming that the nomination was hers, and basing her campaign strategy on this fallacy.
And there was her weak qualification for the job, which she tried to cover with the notion that being a presidential spouse automatically makes you Trainee Commander in Chief.
Triassic Sands
Newt is just the Republican voter’s latest dilemma. The Republican candidates aren’t merely “flawed,” they’re all idiots. I even include Huntsman in this appraisal, because he’s a Republican and no sane, non-idiot would be a member of the Modern Republican Party.
I don’t blame anyone for not wanting Romney — the guy is about as creepy as it’s possible to be and still be a human being. Who wants a candidate whose sole core belief is that he wants to be elected (to whatever the office of the day happens to be)? Bachmann, Cain, and Perry are so obviously unqualified — to hold any position of responsibility — that it’s amazing they were ever “front-runners,” even in the asylum currently known as the GOP. Santorum is so unqualified he can’t even win temporary front runner status in the Republican Party. And Huntsman and Paul need to find new parties where they fit in a little better.
So, that leaves Gingrich, who is so flawed the word flawed barely applies. He’s a bad idea factory, churning out nonsense at breakneck speed, much of it fundamentally unpalatable to the Modern Republican Party (not to mention the human race). If bad ideas were money, Newt might be the richest person on the planet. But I don’t know what the Republican voters are going to do — unless they settle for Romney, Newt is the last station on the road to oblivion. Is it too late to draft Christie?
I’d almost feel sorry for Republican voters if I hadn’t come to despise them so much.
Hill Dweller
@trollhattan: The nihilists don’t want to pass the payroll tax cuts nor the unemployment extension, but they need to set up a scenario where the Dems block it in order to place the blame on them.
The Dangerman
Somehow, Newt is gonna get kneecapped; the Powers That Be know that he has NO chance at Obama and may be disastrous downticket. Romney may be the kneecapper, but if he can’t get the job done, the Cleaner (/Pulp Fiction) will come in to do the job.
I’d love having Newt as the nominee, but there is no way the fat fucker gets it. This is now a teen horror movie; the Dude that walks out by himself into the woods and you know there’s a chainsaw or other implement of his downfall coming soon. We just don’t know how it’s coming, but you can hear the footsteps on the pine needles.
schrodinger's cat
@amk: Laugh or no laugh, he seems certainly more sane than Newt. A Republican win would be disastrous no matter who ultimately wins the nomination. Romney would be harder to beat, because he looks the part while Newt doesn’t. He might be able to sway those people who haven’t been paying much attention.
Bill Arnold
@carpeduum:
You’re laying it on a little heavy.
Lefty speculation about a potential Newt implosion could make it less likely.
Legalize
@amk:
He was damn lucky. His fight with Hillary prepared him for the general, and for virtually every political fight thereafter.
MikeJ
@Brachiator:
It wasn’t arrogance, it was the strategy. The idea was to convince the party people, “hey, you know I’m going to win in the end, and when I do you don’t want to have been on the wrong side of this fight, do you?”
And it came close to working. But once the cracks showed the whole strategy had to crumble.
amk
@schrodinger’s cat: which is actually a negative with the rethug base. So he loses either way.
Samara Morgan
@The Dangerman: but Romney cant beat Obama. The elites know this. They just think Romney will be less damaging to the brand than Newt.
trollhattan
@Hill Dweller:
At this point they’re a half-step from “We’ll pass your awful bill but regrettably, will also have to shoot this puppy and it’s your fault.”
catclub
@The Dangerman: the Powers That Be know that he has NO chance at Obama and may be disastrous downticket. ”
I disagree on the downticket, Romney could be just as bad.
I think someone who said that Bush was from an old family of aristocrats, and Newt _ain’t_, had a good point.
Romney is an aristocrat. Newt is a northward facing carpetbagger. There are plenty of them, but the GOP powers that be also include large numbers of aristocrats.
Tony J
@Culture of Truth:
Good point. If he does get the nomination, then all the wingnut base will ask of him is that he campaigns as ‘One of Them’. All red meat, all of the time, with none of that wimpy ‘compassionate conservatism’ that grinds their gears.
Then, when he loses in a blowout of historical proportions, well that’s just proof that ‘The Left’ must have cheated. Everyone knows that America is a centre-right nation, after all.
They get ‘their’ Election 2000 to hug to their chests and bleat about on Free Republic and Redstate, Newt gets a shield of purest wingnutium thrown around his reputation as far as the punters are concerned. It’s a win-win.
Paul in KY
@different-church-lady: Newt has more staying power than Bachmann/Cain. He’s a sorta-known commodity. Has bloviated for years as a GOP source.
It could happen that Huntsman gets a turn, but I don’t think so. if Newt flames out, they will give Perry one more try before ditching him (IMO).
feebog
Okay, gunna make this point once again. There are very few delegates up for grabs in the first 5 primaries. The delegates will be alloted proportionally, and there is a 50% penalty for moving primaries to a date before Feb. 6. Yeah, yeah, I know, Newtmentoum and all that. In terms of actual delegates, Newt beating Mittens by 15% in S.C, or FL. means very little. Dem from CT has a dairy up on DK which makes the point. There are 29 states who will award thier delegates proportionally, and only 21 (those after April 6) will be winner take all.
The point of all this is there is plenty of time for Newt to flame out. It does not have to happen between now and Iowa. He has more like three months to make one or more really stupid mistakes. I like the odds. Romney has the money to hang in there, as does Perry. And Paul. If this remains a four man race after FL., it is going to be a shootout for the next six weeks. And Romney has the most bullets.
MikeJ
@feebog:
Really? That’s a change for the Republicans. They were always winner take all.
Samara Morgan
@The Dangerman:
Im thinkin’ its more like Wrong Turn Part Three, and Newt is part of a GOP candidate chain gang that gets taken out one by one by ingenious gorror forest traps set by mutant-hillbilly-cannibals.
handsmile
A simple prayer:
Dear Jesus, when will you smile upon your most obedient servant, little Ricky Santorum in his quest to be the Chosen One of the GOP?
No other candidate has devoted his life so tirelessly, so piously, to the whole catechism of wingnut orthodoxy beloved by the faithful. He served your interests for two terms each as both Congressman and Senator from Pennsylvania, all the while avoiding the blandishments of Sodom and Gomorrah on the Potomac. He has honored his sacred marriage vows and that union has been blessed with many children, some of whom you, in your infinite wisdom, made sickly or deceased.
Almost alone, little Ricky volunteered to go into the lion’s den to debate the wicked Donald Trump, but I understand he may have been spared that fate through your intercession in canceling it.
Much like a latter-day Job is our little Ricky. When will you cast out the infidel Willard, the pharisee Newton, and all the other heathens from the GOP temple? When will Ricky be anointed by Saints Rupert and Rush? How long, O Lord, how long?
The Dangerman
@catclub:
Could be…
…but Newt has a history of having independents and women run away from him with shrieks of horror.
Newt is a tank ride away from being Dukakis.
catclub
@MikeJ: Actually, i read recently that it is a mix: proportional rep in some cases, but winner-take-all in each congressional district.
Or maybe winner-take-all by districts is considered proportional. It would be if one was comparing democratic versus republican represented cong. districts, but I would doubt the GOP voters of one district (represented by a democrat) would be dramatically different than the GOP voters ina district represented by a republican.
Samara Morgan
@Paul in KY: no Huntsman.
Huntsman is just Romney with different hair and less name recognition.
They are both MORMONS.
MikeJ
@catclub: I just checked on it. This year they’re doing: “early states” (IA, NH), and then all contests are proportional until April 1. After that, it’s winner take all.
catclub
@The Dangerman: Yes, Newt drives away independents.
But Romney fails to motivate the base. Who knows which will be worse overall?
Satanicpanic
I used to think Romney was way more electable than Gingrich, lately, I’m not so sure. To be clear, neither really has much of a chance, but I just don’t see much of a difference in terms of likeability.
catclub
@MikeJ: I read a similar one.
But there are many cases where winner-take-all might appear.
The first is, if you get over 50% of the vote.
The second is if no one else gets over 20%.
(I read the alabama case, others may differ.)
Anoniminous
The GOP base decided to vote purity over electability in 2010 and while it arguably cost them the Senate I don’t see any evidence they’ve changed their stance.
The January primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, is more favorable to Gingrich than Romney.
The February primaries: Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri (non-binding, BTW,) Arizona, and Michigan is even-steven.
Super-Tuesday (Mar 6) is weighted in delegate count for Gingrich with Texas (152) and Georgia (76) comprising the largest share of delegates and at this time I’d put them leaning Gingrich rather than Romney.
So, if Gingrich can manage to keep his ego and mouth under control, I grant that is a BIG “if,” he could be in the lead, and perhaps a substantial lead, by mid-March.
The basic ‘structure’ of this GOP Presidential nominating election cycle hasn’t changed:
1. Romney is the supposed Front Runner
2. The base loathes him, his religion, his works, and his ever-changing positions
Gingrich is their last White Hope to defeat Romney. With a large majority of Most Likely GOP primary voters polling “May Change My Mind” there’s no way to predict how it will all end.
carpeduum
@EconWatcher: Gingrich being president cannot happen. Will not happen. Obama could be caught in a hotel room with a crack ho and heroin and he would still win against Gingrich.
So the whole premise of “we don’t want Gingrich to even get that close” is not a valid argument imho. If he did get that close it would energize Dem voters like never before. And what is good for Obama is good for all the Dem senators and congress critters seeking re-election. So I wholeheartedly disagree with all your points.
billiecat
@Judas Escargot: your post at 53 endorsed. If the Republicans had no power in Congress, or even if these were normal times, we might survive a Romney administration. But not now. When shrub was “elected” in 2000 we were at peace and prosperous, and I shrugged my shoulders and said “sure, he’s an idiot, but what’s the worst that could happen?”, and the gods have been punishing me ever since.
The Dangerman
@catclub:
True, but the base is coming out because the current President has a Melanin problem.
Samara Morgan
@Anoniminous:
the last White Christian Hope.
no one wants to admit that the GOP is 50% WEC now, up from 40% in 2008.
WECs hate mormons.
Remember 2008 when evangelical pastors took out a full page add threatening to stay home if McCain made Romney his VP choice?
Brandon
You are wrong Tim for one very simple, basic and obvious reason… ratings. The networks and pundit class they subsidize need controversy to play out as long as possible to get those eyeballs. They realized what a boon ’08 was for them financially and I expect they are hoping for a ’12 payday as well. Plus, consider this, if Newt flames out before a single ballot is cast, Romney walks this thing. That means that Romney will be getting a lot of attention, which is something political reporters are anticipating with all the joy associated with the expectancy of showing up for a vasectomy. Plus, it is probably not something Romney wants. He doesn’t want to be the sole focus of press attention for any sustained period of time, because he wants to make the election a referendum on Obama, not a choice between the two. Plus, he needs to demonstrate that he can actually win at the polls against honest, but understrengh, competition or else I just don’t see how he builds a campaign without even a minimal moducum of enthusiasm.
carpeduum
@cokane: I say it is impossible. You simply have no clue just how unelectable Gingrich is. Need I remind you he was a congress critter and he was basically thrown out of office for ethics violations.
So I say Newt being president against Obama or Biden or Hillary is impossible. Cannot happen.
catclub
@carpeduum: Well, you can remind us of that, but you would be wrong. He had the ethics violations, he paid the fine, he was re-elected in Nov 1998, but his side took a shellacking, the party threw him out/ he resigned in November 1998.
He was thrown out for losing. Not Ethics.
EconWatcher
@Judas Escargot:
I agree with you on domestic budget and such. But one of the things I’m thinking about is war with Iran, and other such decisions within the power of the president that could be our complete undoing.
Much more likely with Newt, in my opinion. I can’t remember the exact words he used, but I recall a speech from Newt shortly after 9-11 that boiled down to, “Looks like we’re at war with Islam. Best roll up our sleeves and get down to it.”
Tony J
@amk:
Newt isn’t so much the Wingnut Golden Child as he’s the latest Not-Romney to back against Ol’ Plastic Fantastic. He was never their first choice, barely their fourth, and should he look like he’s going to be the GOP candidate in a few months (still unproven) the meme on the far-right is going to shift from “Yay Newt! He’s Kewl!” to “We picked you up, we drove you here, time to show your appreciation, if you know what we mean. Eyebrow wiggle”
Sure, he needs the money and the establishment support to stand any kind of chance in the General, but if we’ve learned anything from this pre-Primary circus it’s that the True Wingnuts who dominate the selection of GOP candidates will not stomach any compromise, even one with the rest of their Party.
Given the choice between the contrasting revenue streams available to ‘the next John McCain’ and ‘the next Sarah Palin’, which would he pick?
Brandon
Another thing to remember is that Newt’s campaign already flamed out. Now his campaign is a story of redemption, perserveance and triumph. More than anything, conservatives love the conservatives love more than anything.
amk
oops, perry forgets Sotomayor’s name.
What a dumb fuck.
Anoniminous
@catclub:
Romney will have a better chance of winning the Presidency by his (supposed) appeal to Independents, Gingrich has a better chance of winning the nomination.
Samara Morgan
@The Dangerman: but the base doesnt feel that Romney has that fire in his belly to take Obama out. that is why Gringrich is the bases choice.
The elites want Romney because he will do less long term damage to the republican brand.
But neither one can beat Obama.
amk
@Tony J: mebbe palin redux ? ;) ;)
Hill Dweller
@amk: He also forgot how many Justices were on the court later in the interview.
amk
@Hill Dweller: The mofo should have seceded in 2010 and become the prezinent of Texas. A match made for each other.
The Dangerman
@Samara Morgan:
Mitt has a somewhat better chance, but, no, neither would beat Obama…
…and all the Fox Viewers that were told for months that any of the Republican candidates would beat Obama handily will have a meltdown of epic proportions.
I has a sad for them.
MikeJ
@Brandon:
The extended primary wasn’t just good for the media, it was good for the Democratic party. The conventional wisdom had been that it would be good for Republicans to rally around one candidate early (hence their winner take all primary system we were discussing) and bad for Democrats to be attacking each other into the summer. Instead it meant that there was something interesting to report about Democrats every single day and even after plying the press with BBQ McCain just wasn’t a story.
Of course McCain wasn’t a sitting president who could pretty much force the media to pay attention to him. The republicans are trying to fight the last war but the world has changed.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Anoniminous:
A pretty good analysis but I have to nitpick this part. The Feb primaries feature 3 western states with substantial Mormon populations, and Michigan where Mitt’s father governed and where he polls well. That slate looks either heavily pro-Mittens or a toss-up to me except for Missouri. I expect this is the stretch where Mittens makes up ground he’s lost in the early primaries. The nomination may be decided by whether he comes out of this stretch with enough of a commanding lead in delegates to weather defeats in the TX and GA primaries without looking wounded, or not.
Anoniminous
@The Dangerman:
If Newt is the GOP candidate Obama could be looking at getting 60%+ of the woman vote, and that’s the ballgame.
Tony J
@amk:
And share the profit from his grift with a Sarah-come-lately currently backing Santorum? Nah. Newt likes blondes.
If you can think of a crazy GOP blonde female with some kind of political resume to fluff, hell yeah. It’s not like this is a serious campaign.
amk
@Tony J: Not even if tundra twit walks into his room in her bath towel ?
Judas Escargot
@EconWatcher:
Fair enough (and I did have mostly domestic policy in mind when I commented).
I do agree that a President Newt “defender of civilization, creator of civilization, leader (possibly) of civilization” Gingrich is almost guaranteed to bomb and/or invade Iran (assuming the Joint Chiefs went along).
As for Mitt, in the debates he’s been rattling sabres with the best of them, but in practice it would depend on what a GOP Congress and cabinet wanted. IMO the only potential save there would be that Mitt, as a money-man, might be more likely to realize the actual business/economic consequences of $350/bbl oil.
But that’s a pretty thin thread to hang peace on.
carpeduum
@catclub: Being able to get elected as a congress critter in some red district is not in the same universe as trying to win a national election.
You have no clue.
geg6
@catclub:
It’s much better for Obama’s chances of reelection, IMHO, to have Newt alienating women and independents than chance the possibility that Mittens depresses turnout in the GOPer base. If I know anything from my 35 years of being a political junkie, it’s that you should never count on the idea that the wingnuts and Talibangelicals will stay home on an election day.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Judas Escargot:
I imagine that SecDef Liz Cheney would find ways to persuade them.
Brandon
Another thing to remember is that Newt’s campaign already flamed out. Now his campaign is a story of redemption, perserveance and triumph. More than anything, conservatives love a good redemption story.
Judas Escargot
@Tony J:
Who’s that Atty General from FL who recently punked the Daily Show with a fake urine sample? She was also one of the questioners in the Huckabee Star Chamber/Interview last weekend.
She’s a true wingnut by all accounts, but sadly I lay eyes on her and my (by now well-honed) intuition says “future FL Governor/Congresswoman/Senator”.
Tony J
@amk:
I think that ship sailed some time ago.
Marcus
@anna: Bravo on ur instincts…
the nail in the coffin was the fox interview and the nail in the heart was the last debate when Newt gambled about the immigration issue
Mitt’s face was priceless
the KEY pivot from Newt made him win the nomination
…he tried prior with the Ryan plan but this time Limbaugh covered his flank….its over
Anoniminous
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Thank You and, by all means, nitpick away.
Some things to add to the “picking” is the Fed 7th Missouri primary is non-binding, delegates will actually be awarded on Mar 17 during a party caucus; Arizona and Michigan were both penalized 50% of their delegates for moving their primaries so only 29 and 30, respectively, can be won; Minnesota’s 40 delegates and Maine’s 24 delegates are “unpledged” – meaning they can vote for whomever they want, as they wish; with Colorado’s 36, Nevada’s 25 rounding out the month.
After looking (Evidence? We don’t NEED no stinking evidence! :-) I see Romney won Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, Nevada, and Michigan …
So, yeah, I think you’re right: have to shift Feb to “lean Romney.”
Tony J
@Judas Escargot:
Pam Bondi?
“Newt, come over here. You gotta see this!”
wrb
The Newt seems to have just called for the expulsion of “the invented Palestinian People”
wrb
I was going to add a juicy bit but the damned thing says I don’t have permission to edit my comment
Judas Escargot
@Tony J:
Yeppers, that’s the one.
FL seems to be one of the current ‘farm team’ states for the next generation of GOP contenders (Rubio, Jeb, Jeb’s son George P., etc); I’d include her in that.
Yevgraf
@wrb:
Just saw that over at FReeperville. They’re all happy and excited about the notion of killing indigenous Palestinians for the crime of having been born on and remaining upon land that Israelis want to use.
geg6
@Judas Escargot:
That’s probably why Florida is the US state that currently most resembles Somalia.
Never liked Florida much (not a fan of flatness and disgusting heat and humidity) but I sure wouldn’t have wished this on them. What the hell happened to that state? I used to say it was the one southern state that didn’t belong in the South. Must have spent too much time in the West Palm and Key West areas. The rest of that state is obviously as insane as any place in Alabama.
Brandon
I take it all back. I just realized that Josh Marshall is pimping a Gingrich victory, so it is defiitely not going to happy. That guy is about as close as anyone can get to a “liberal” Bill Kristol. He’s so caught up in playing the VSP game that he is just wrong about absolutely everything and consistently so. And since ABC News wont even allow Huntsman on stage for the next debate, despite his best efforts to pander and substantial support from VSPs, it will have to be Romney.
Brachiator
@wrb:
Thank the deity for Newt (and his comments should become a front page thread). Newt has upped the ante on the crazy, and it will be interesting to see if the other GOP contenders take the bait and stake out equally extreme positions. As usual, Huntsman and Paul would come closest to sanity, and will be ignored.
More seriously, Newt is not simply pandering to the extremist pro-Israel lobby. His insult to Palestinians is staggeringly offensive.
Tony J
@Judas Escargot:
All of whom are probably looking at the mess being made of their long-term (national) electoral prospects by the ideologically teabased and wondering “Will I be pretty enough to sell this shit in a decade or so?”
I have very little sympathy. It’s a flaw.
Mike in NC
@Brachiator:
OK, it seems pretty clear where this is heading. At the next GOP debate there will be unanimous agreement that the US has to withdraw from the United Nations. Something the Birchers have been screaming about for decades is now part of the official Republican platform.
Suffern ACE
@Brachiator: “Invented People”. Now are foreign policy is going to be set by madmen and PR flacks who place pamphlets in the backs of churches. I wonder outside the evangelical right, if that slander ever got any currency.
wrb
@Suffern ACE:
This all was bound to happen as soon as liberals were allowed to harvest stem cells.
Ridnik Chrome
Those of you who are cackling with glee over the prospect of Newt Gingrich being the GOP nominee, be careful what you wish for. Whoever wins the nomination has a pretty good chance of winning (or stealing) the election, and Newt in the White House would be a bigger disaster than any of the others. The man’s a nihilist and an egomaniac. Remember how he ran Congress when he was Speaker of the House? Would you really want him in a job that would give him several magnitudes more power than he had back then? Even Michelle Bachmann would probably do less damage as president…
Brachiator
@Ridnik Chrome:
I pretty much detest all the GOP contenders. I have a hard time seeing any of them as being anything but dangerous to the health of the country.
Dubya lowered the standard about as far as he possibly good. The GOP contenders are all trying their best to live “up” to this negative standard.
geg6
@Brachiator:
I agree. It’s laughable that any particular GOPer would be better than any other one of the bunch. They are all a bunch of nihilists and radicals with not a sliver of daylight between them, IMHO. Since that is the case, I say let’s cheer on the one who is most hated by women and independents.
Bex
@carpeduum: You get the Under The Collapsed Bridge Award for pathetic trolling. Congratulations and goodbye.
Arm The Homeless
@geg6: Oh, the insanity pervades the cities’ suburban rings as much as any other state.
There is still a large contingent of Pork Choppers left, being replaced by bow-tied, deck-shoed, popped-collared, dick-slapping MBA grandchildren.
On a happier note, in the wake of pRick Scott, our wingnuts are a bit more susceptible to the mating calls of the free-range RonPaul
Brachiator
@wrb:
About the only thing I like about Ron Paul is that he is actively going the other way on issues of war.
This kind of thing can not be endearing him to avid warmongers.
xian
@wrb: ooh, both a “frankly” and one of Gingrich’s “fundamental” sighs.
Paul in KY
@Brachiator: That’s the only thing I like about the guy. He was right about Iraq & he will tell it to them, no matter how many ‘ick’ faces they make or fingers they stick in their ears.