George Will is Paul-curious. Personally, I think Paul lacks the Hayekian modesty necessary for a successful third-party run.
Expect the calls for a third-party candidate to get louder and louder if it appears that Gingrich will be the nominee. And even the liberal Nate Silver hears the Siren song of a brokered convention.
James Gary
I told you about the fools on the Hill,
I tell you man, they’re living there still.
c u n d gulag
George Will proves that it’s not just Newt alone who’s the stupid person’s idea of a smart one.
I’m surprised Newt’s not going with the bow-tie look himself.
After all, where would George Will or MotherTucker Carlson be today if they hadn’t donned them earlier in their careers?
Oh, that’s right – we already know Newt’s smart.
Would they have him on on all the Sunday Bloviation Fest’s is he wasn’t?
cathyx
I don’t really understand why the republicans don’t like him. He’s no worse than the others.
Ron
I think the idea of a brokered convention or 3rd party run by a conservative sounds great from the point of view of liberals but I wonder how likely a serious 3rd party conservative candidate would be.
RossInDetroit
@cathyx:
Against the wars. That’s a deal killer for the GOP. Either you back bombing the shit out of people who don’t talk like us or you support the terrorists.
ETA: I thought you meant Paul. That’s who I was referring to.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@cathyx: Newt’s unsubtle about his mendacious nastiness. And regular people react in regular ways to him, i.e, they recoil in disgust. Hence he is bad for the brand. That’s all.
Suffern ACE
What happened? Is Rick Perry no longer paying Will’s wife so that he’ll provide the proper fluffing?
As per the brokered convention, the Republicans will go with who Rush tells them to go with. If Rush threw his hat in the ring, he would be the candidate, actually. The idea that there are better candidates who just aren’t running is a myth. The republicans have no other candidates who aren’t just carbon copies of what you have in front of you right now.
xian
he isn’t for war, that’s why
Palli
Ron Paul or Paul Ryan?
SST
Just 53% of the vote in ’08? The fuck was Will expecting? 60?
Suffern ACE
@Palli: If it were RuPaul, I’d reconsider my statement above that all the Republican candidates that are currently in the field are carbon copies of what might come out of a brokered convention.
cathyx
@RossInDetroit: No, I meant Newt.
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): But if the populace like him, why would anyone care if he’s nasty. In fact, I thought republicans love nastiness.
ornery
But what does sully think?
PeakVT
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): I think this what most people are reminded of when they hear Newtie talk.
Alex S.
I was able to see Perry unifying the different conservative factions. I cannot see Newt doing the same. His problem is that he destroys the unified message of the movement (i.e. how can you talk about small government and moon colonies?) The nomination of Jeb Bush is becoming a real possibility in my opinion.
Alex S.
I was expecting a whole thread about this product of Brooks’ mental diarrhea.
Steve
It’s interesting to hear people discuss the possibility of a brokered convention. I don’t remember that ever being the subject of speculation in past cycles, aside from all of them.
Snowball
@Suffern ACE:
Not necessarily. Here’s what Rush said in 2008:
After McCain’s win in Florida, Rush Limbaugh, who has suggested that a McCain nomination could “destroy the Republican Party,” gave a satiric concession speech in which he said “the base has fractured.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-502163_162-3773084-502163.html
RossInDetroit
The right wing punditariat has turned against Newt for the most part. Rush is still behind him. I think the others don’t want him as the nominee because they don’t trust him not to put his ego ahead of the party and blow up his campaign. The establishment’s in it to win, and Newt’s in it for the personal glory and adulation.
amk
g. will has never been right since I first saw him on teh teevee quarter century back. Retire already george.
smintheus
@RossInDetroit: Yeah, Paul just described the Bushies as ‘gleeful’ about the 9/11 attacks. Hard to see him getting any traction now.
amk
@Suffern ACE:
Yup, this is the entire bottom of the rethuglican barrel.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@cathyx: Indeed the base does relish nastiness, but the elite have to be concerned about electability in the general. Two different audiences, and Newt can’t pivot with long term success. He’s a nasty fucker who really believes it’s appropriate.
Ben Cisco (mobile)
It is unimaginable that any sane party would nominate Newtron. Of course, this is the Gangrene Ossified Party we’re talking about here, so…
MikeBoyScout
I for one long for a GOP brokered convention…
as long as the brokers are from Goldman-Sachs, BOA or CitiCorp.
Omnes Omnibus
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q):
I think it is more that he cannot control it. It is who and what he is.
superdestroyer
All a third party candidate does is split the white vote three days. A third party candidate means that President Obama is re-elected with more electoral votes than what he had in 2008.
What the pundits are really complaining about is having to write about or cover the coming presidential election when they all know who is doing to win.
I always wonder why writers find writing about House or Senate races too hard even though the real question in 2012 will be whether the Democrats regain control of the U.S. House.
ChrisNYC
Will is saying he doesn’t want a Ron Paul 3d party run. He also leaves out that Paul said just a couple of days ago that the chances of him going third party is 1 in 20000000.
RossInDetroit
@superdestroyer:
The House is a major issue. Most of the attention will be on the presidential race but the down ticket races could have more impact.
A 3rd party race could help the Dems in several ways: take the pressure off of Obama because he has 2 weak opponents instead of 1 strong-ish one, depress GOP turnout and help down ticket Dems, and break up the monolithic Right into 2 factions each without sufficient strength to oppose his agendas.
RossInDetroit
Some people have interpreted Huntsman as not ruling out a 3rd party run but I’d consider that very unlikely. He’s not stupid and wouldn’t waste the time and money unless there’s some other purpose to it.
Arm The Homeless
@Alex S.: Oh it’s going to be a smoke-filled room, subsumed in the sweaty innards of Modern America
I am surprised none of the less stable of their memberships didn’t balk at the sight of a minaret looming just behind the stoic god-fearin’ palm tree.
Sly
@cathyx:
The man consistently lets his ego get in the way of everything. For movement conservatives, the movement comes first.
cokane
I don’t buy the brokered convention or the dark-horse late comer surprise. The GOP will rally behind whoever starts to get a lead, just like they have in EVERY SINGLE RECENT primary. I love that this year is somehow a “weak” primary field for them. As if George W. Bush was ever a solid person to carry the party’s banner.
Once someone looks like a winner, every conservative will hop on the bandwagon. Obama hatred and party loyalty are too strong for them to risk a brokered convention on some silly notion like their candidate being a poor choice for president.
Jewish Steel
Guardian:
New ’round here, ain’t ya? spits
Brachiator
Nate Silver’s blog post should caution everyone from drawing easy conclusions from the apparent GOP disarray. In 2008, the candidate with the highest net favoribility polling was Rudy911. And even Fred Thompson’s rating was twice that of the eventual nominee, John McCain.
And no one in either party wants to see a strong third party candidate emerge, because this creates a wild card that could damage either the GOP or the Democrats.
Brokered convention? Who knows. If the voter turnout is low, and the results mixed, in the first primaries, the GOP might have something to worry about. Until then, there is really not much concrete to go on.
I am enjoying the anguish of the conservative pundits. But they will back pedal as necessary and meekly support the eventual nominee. They got nowhere else to go.
Lizzy L
Ron Paul? John Huntsman? Jeb Bush? (Brother? What brother? I don’t have a brother…) Sarah Palin? Step up, step up, folks, place your bets.
Omnes Omnibus
@Jewish Steel: Wearing bib-overalls today, are we?
SW
A Right Lib third party run would be a gift from the gods to Obama. Ron Paul definitely needs to run. He is too big for the Republican Party. Can I get and Amen from the Paultards? It would be Ralph Nader for the Democrats. I will send a donation. It would do more for his chances than a $100 million PAC.
RossInDetroit
@cokane:
I’m not certain of that. The GOP has fractured into the old guard establishment and the TP anti-tax crazies. Some who identify with the GOP would probably rather lose with a candidate who supports the anti-tax platform and other TP goals than suck it up and get behind an establishment candidate. Then there are the divisions between Washington insider (Newt) and ‘outsider’ (Romney).
handsmile
Booman wrote two characteristically thoughtful posts yesterday on the possibility of a brokered Republican convention. Here’s a link to one; both are well worth reading: http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2011/12/9/1440/72788
The Civil War now raging between the mouth-breathers and the Koch-suckers of the GOP is a joy to behold. “All I am saying is give Carnage a chance….”
But, seriously, why has Rick Santorum failed so utterly to become the driver in the Klown Kar Karnival’s game of Chinese Fire Drill? No other candidate has labored so tirelessly, so piously, throughout his political career on behalf of the full catechism of Wingnut orthodoxy. From ideology to political fealty to personal lifestyle, he would seem to be the paragon of GOP values and virtues.
Yet for all his froth and fundamentalism, Santorum remains unloved and unwanted. Does this prove that Dan Savage and the homosexual mafia are as powerful as some claim?
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Omnes Omnibus: Exactly; you just stated it better.
RossInDetroit
@SW:
I had been hoping for Sarah for that role, both for the disruption and the entertainment. But I over estimated her attention span for government stuff.
EconWatcher
George Will is such a pretentious fraud. Back in the days before the booze and 9-11 rage addled him completely, Hitchens did a takedown of Will for the ages, showing that he was using historical and literary references with no idea of what he was talking about. As someone above suggested, Will and Gingrich are remarkably similar in this way.
Davis X. Machina
@handsmile: Santorum is the first ever fatal victim of a Google bomb…
Arm The Homeless
@cokane: While I would agree with you in-regards to trends, I think this election freaks-out conservative voters particularly.
The Teahadists will get their half-pound of flesh, a compromise is going to be baked into this cake that hasn’t been there in quite so potent a concentration since who? Cheney? But he was there to appease the money party. Who is the compromise with the Larry the Cable Guy set?
Whether its the eventual ticket’s Achilles heel or not? I would take those odds.
Jewish Steel
@Omnes Omnibus: ‘praps.
catclub
Hereditary aristocracy. Remember that when asking who ‘deserves’ to be a GOP nominee. All those Bushes, since 1980, always there. Hereditary aristocracy.
Eventual disgust with Sarah Palin. The difference between her and George W Bush? Hereditary aristocracy.
Newt versus Romney.
Luke Russert
Liz Cheney
Megan McCain
And all those Kennedys, too.
mellowjohn
happened to catch a clip of “this weak” last night w/ george effing will talking about newt. panel members michal gerson and paul krugman were staring intently at whatever it was will had on his head.
seriously, doesn’t the kaplan daily news pay will enough to buy a decent toupee?
Villago Delenda Est
The walrus was Paul? Ron Paul?
That explains so much!
huckster
My God
“Newt Gingrich GOP nominee”
This might just be the biggest con job in history, with the added bonus of being televised.
Brachiator
@Suffern ACE:
Fairly interesting article in the NY Times site today about how Fox News is not reporting on the GOP campaign, but actually managing it.
Another fun article notes that for the first time, neither of the GOP front runners are Protestant. I wonder how many Republican voters, especially the evangelicals, and those who have problems with Romney’s Mormonism, know that Newt is now a Roman Catholic?
Schlemizel
If FSM truly loved the US he would see to it that Noot gets denied the nomination based on party elders/pundits against the wishes of Rush Lamebrain & his sheep and the flock demands and receives a tru-B-lever(tm) third party run.
This would then play out 44% Obama, 40% Bozo, 10% Bloomberg 6% Lamebrain, plus it will drain the down ticket Bozo’s of enough support to tip the House back and maybe gain a seat or two in the Senate.
That followed by the post apocalyptic blood letting by the wingnuts might be just the crack needed to get a real progressive movement in control of the national agenda.
DanielX
“Hayekian modesty”. I wonder if Bobo will have that engraved upon his tombstone, and wonder even more if his computer has some sort of word salad generator that comes up with this drivel. What the fuck does that even mean?
Schlemizel
@Brachiator:
Since Noot has been a Lutheran, a Baptist and now a Catholic I’m not sure he knows what he is & the sheeple sure don’t.
Gin & Tonic
@DanielX: I asked the same thing the other day. Luckily some commenters moved it in the direction of Salma Hayek, rather than the other one, and I appreciated the mental image.
DanielX
@Gin & Tonic: Hmph….well, okay then. Salma Hayek’s modesty, what there is of it, is a concept I could really get behind…so to speak. Brooksian modesty, on the other hand, leaves his intellectual and literary shortcomings indecently exposed.
FlipYrWhig
@Schlemizel: And if that happened, we would be hectored about how Obama was a “minority president” (wink) who should move further to the right because he didn’t have a mandate from the American people.
Chris
Brachiator:
I think the effect of Mormon & Catholic hating is overhyped, personally – and I say this as someone quite used to being on the receiving end of fundie anti-Catholicism. There’s a hierarchy to their prejudices. Next to a black liberal “Muslim” the Catholic and Mormon look positively presentable, especially with all the fearmongering they’ve been fed about the former. If push comes to shove, my assessment is the vast majority of them will swallow their prejudices and vote R.
Course, even one or two percentage points matters …
Anoniminous
@cathyx:
Gingrich is liked well enough by the Most Likely GOP primary voter, it’s the GOP establishment that doesn’t.
Romney is liked by the establishment but the Most Likely GOP primary voter doesn’t.
It’s an interesting situation.
Ultimately, the voters will decide and at this point it looks like Gingrich will be in the lead by the end of January having won Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida with Romney only having won New Hampshire and struggling.
March is more favorable to Romney and he could claw back into the race, maybe even gain a delegate lead.
April is too far away to state with any assurance of accuracy. At this point it looks more favorable to Gingrich as the schedule is loaded with Southern states.
One key is which of the two bozos can break through on the national polling. So far Romney has been oscillating at around 25%, Gingrich is still within the ‘Not-Romney of the Month Club’ support at the lower to mid 30s. Be aware, tho’, national polling support is indicative, not determinative, of how state primaries will end-up.
carpeduum
Seems George Will and Cole have something in common. Although I don’t think Cole likes to admit it, I have NO DOUBT he likes some of the things Paul has to say. Such as the childishly simplistic notion that since war is bad there should never be war, never be drone strikes, and we need to get our military out of all countries immediately.
Anoniminous
@handsmile:
Bachmann and Perry are both below 10% support and running too low in the national polls to have much hope of winning delegates.
Paul is running his usual 10% and that doesn’t cut it in the primary states but his supporters are VERY supportive and they may be able to throw some delegates his way in caucus states; we’re talking tens of delegates tho’ not hundreds.
The GOP is going into this election with the candidates they have, not the candidates they need. There’s no time or “space” for another candidate to jump-in the race.
Something I haven’t mentioned, Romney has a potential “lead” of around 350 delegates from the GOP establishment. They REALLY do NOT want Gingrich. Meaning Romney only has to pick-up around 795 primary/caucus delegates to win. BUT if they are seen to be ‘throwing’ the nomination to Romney they risk splitting the party.
Which brings-up another “Emergent Property” of this election: the GOP coalition is coming apart. Fortunately, for them, there’s a Negro in the White(man’s) House – snark, BTW – which will help them tack, staple, and scotch-tape it back together One More Time. After that? Perhaps not.
eyelessgame
@cokane:
This. Noonan, Will, Brooks, et al will walk back all their antigingrichia with one column each, explaining that that Gingrich has “matured”, “tempered his message”, “shown surprising discipline”, yadda yadda.
eyelessgame
@handsmile:
Because he looks, and acts, prissy. If he ever carried a gun he’d look like Dukakis in a tank.
Miss Kitka's Comrade Wayne
A brokered Republican convention in 2012 would be awesome. They’ve obstructed absolutely everything possible. Why wouldn’t they obstruct the outcome of their own private selection?
I eagerly await the moment when their shit starts to back up through their very throats.
Miss Kitka's Comrade Wayne
A brokered Republican convention in 2012 would be awesome. They’ve obstructed absolutely everything possible. Why wouldn’t they obstruct the outcome of their own private selection?
I eagerly await the moment when their shit starts to back up through their very throats.
DanielX
@carpeduum: Hey, I’m okay with some of the things Paul says. It’s the things he says that qualify him for a nice canvas jacket with sleeves that tie in the back that cause me problems.
DanielX
oooh, off topic but too good to pass up:
Lanny Davis hired to counsel Penn State President.
http://gawker.com/5866796/penn-state-hires-evil-dictator+loving-monster-lawyer
Lanny Davis would represent a Colombian kidnapping ring if the bucks were right. I especially like the Gawker punch line:
A great hire for the Nittany Lions, basically. He’ll clear their name and somehow get them a few F16s on the side.
Yutsano
@carpeduum:
Canada has foreign bases? HOOCODANODE??
carpeduum
@Yutsano: Perhaps you need to get better infROmed then.
May I suggest a more worthwhile hobby other than following my history in the comments section on this board such as collecting belly button lint.
But thanks for the attempt at trying to get my attention my little groupie. So many groupies…..so little time.
Yutsano
@carpeduum: I’d have to take you seriously first. But homophobic Canuckistanis who have been banned four times now for their obsession with a little blog are their own little joke. But I suppose licking Harper’s boots gets old.
AA+ Bonds
If I can impair my sense of humor for a second, Brooks’s “Hayekian modesty” actually means Ron Paul-ism.
Ron Paul is the #1 guy up here pushing Hayek’s political philosophy. Which is why he’s such a fuckin moron.
AA+ Bonds
@Chris:
Mormons and Catholics aren’t on the same level at all for right-wing American Protestants.
The 1980s and 1990s saw opportunistic alliances between right-wing Catholics and Protestants against their left-wing counterparts, and so the stigma is gone for Catholics among many megachurch pastors (Haggard, Nieman, etc.) and those who read their books. This hasn’t at all eliminated anti-Catholic sentiment among RWAPs but it has diminished it considerably.
No such ecumenism has happened between those groups and Mormons. They discuss Mormonism as a New Age cult, akin to Wicca.
DrPaul2012
Dr. Paul is hot, hot, hot! right now. Here’s a site that reviews all of his books in one place. Heady stuff.
gaz
@DrPaul2012: I thought you were going to link to the scribbles on the cell in the nuthatch they locked him up in…
wait – the man is still loose in society? and running for president? WTF?
Ron Paul 2012 – R-nuthatch
“A danger to himself and others”
Triassic Sands
@Miss Kitka’s Comrade Wayne:
A brokered convention and the emergence of a new candidate could have disruptive effects on the GOP. On the other hand, it could really energize the party if all the current mediocre candidates are discarded and someone like Christie is suddenly elevated to the nomination. At that point, hatred for Obama and Democrats could overwhelm their former dissatisfaction with their candidates and, like the mindless tools they are, Republicans could pretend that Chris Christie (or another candidate) is really the magician they’ve been seeking all along.
Because the GOP is made up largely of one kind of extremist or another, it’s not possible to find a candidate who is all things to all people — Romney shows what a hopeless task that is. So, even though lots of Republicans should have issues with someone like Christie, their ability to live comfortably in a fantasy world will allow them to ignore the very real differences they have and instead deem the new candidate “perfect” or nearly so (for the purposes of beating Obama).
The best case scenario for Democrats and Obama is probably for either Romney or Gingrich to get the nomination amid considerable dissatisfaction and grumbling. (Of course, it would be better if one of the real flakes — Santorum or Bachmann say — got the nod, but that isn’t really a possibility.
In the end, I think I’d rather see Obama face either Romney or Gingrich and a disappointed Republican electorate than have someone like Christie get to skip all the preliminaries and step into the nomination as a kind of savior.
Chris
@AA+ Bonds:
Okay, that’s true. I remember that the fundiegelicals who didn’t like my Catholicism were much more virulent against the Mormons.
But in that same hierarchy, just as they rate Catholics higher than Mormons, I still think they rate Mormons higher than whatever they think Obama and the rest of us are. Much higher. They may think Mormonism’s a “cult,” but for the most part they don’t accuse it of betraying America, causing economic depressions, supporting terrorism, and all the rest of the crap they throw at black people, Muslims, and the rest of the liberal crowd. It doesn’t drive most of them into unreasoning terror and loathing, and the people Obama stands for do. As long as the pundits keep playing that up for all it’s worth, I’d say Romney wouldn’t have that much to worry about in the general election.
(Whether he gets there’s another question: the man just got his ass handed to him in tonight’s debate, as several threads have noted).
Karen
Call me confuzzled but wouldn’t Ron Paul running as a third party candidate hurt Obama more than the Republicans? After all, they seem to forget the craziness and focus in on his anti war stance and pro legal marijuana.
Chris
@Karen:
I suspect Ron Paul would appeal mostly to the disaffected, all-politicians-suck, both-sides-do-it-ers. Ross Perot took pretty equally from Republicans, Democrats and independents, and I think RP would as well.