John Huntsman and Newt Gingrich had a foreign policy debate yesterday, and apparently it was well-mannered and carried out in complete sentences. If you look at Politico’s front page, which is leading with the question of whether Romney is to Gingrich as Clinton was to Obama (whatever the fuck that means), you’ll learn that Sarah Palin is trying to pimp another reality show, but you won’t read anything about the Gingrich/Huntsman debate. It’s as if the even didn’t even happen.
That’s pretty much the story of Huntsman’s entire campaign: he does something serious and everyone ignores him. Nate Silver has a new post detailing the kinds of needles various camels would have to pass through in order for Huntsman to win, and it’s a long, circuitous path. If you look at the polling, Huntsman has never gotten above a couple of percent, while Newt was up in the double digits many times before his current surge. Even Rick Santorum beats him consistently.
Sane journalists like Silver and Fallows constantly mention Huntsman because he’s clearly more electable than Newt, and probably Romney. But to the Republican primary voter, he’s the dork in the corner at the junior high dance. He’s not even interesting enough to ridicule. Every dog seems to have its day with the GOP electorate, except for Huntsman. Since the process of becoming the GOP frontrunner seems inherently irrational, I can’t count him out completely, but at some point he’s going to stop spending Daddy’s money and realize that he should have kept his powder dry until 2016.
Thomas
Totally. Huntsman needs somehow someway for the Republicans to attract enough moderate voters to their base that one could get away with basic things like, believing science, and not be ostracized for it. He may have to wait longer than 2016.
Schlemizel
I get why the baggers will not like Hunstman, he is one of them in spirit but not in form. What I don’t get is how ‘Ol Frothy has not had his moment in the sun. He is as Batshit as Bachmann, as vapid as Cain, as evangelical as Huckabee and speaks in complete sentences like Noot. Why no love for Santorum?
ET
Oh my this is funny as HELL!!
Feel the Newt-mentum
Raven
Mornin Joe is KILLING Newt again this morning.
eta As he applauds Romney for his “free market capitalism” work at Bain!
Alesis
Huntsman has no natural constituency outside of the press. He hasn’t been ignored, the man has FAR more free press than his numbers earn. He was highlighted on This Week just this Sunday despite trailing freaking Rick Santorum and not making the cut for the last full debate.
The reason that debate didn’t get coverage is not that the media doesn’t like Huntsman (they can barely hide the drool) but that they HATE Gingrich.
I despise them both.
MattF
Well, Huntsman is a conservative. QED.
In other news, Michael Gerson has a WaPo op-ed this morning on Noot. I read it twice, and I think I agree with every single word… until the last paragraph:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-problem-with-gingrichs-simplistic-attack-on-sharia/2011/12/12/gIQAv0nZqO_story.html
cmorenc
That Rick Santorum has consistently outpolled John Huntsman among GOP voters would be extremely depressing if Santorum’s support level wasn’t consistently in the low single digits. It’s still a depressing observation of the state of the GOP electorate that Huntsman is more of a fringe candidate than is the nauseating prick Santorum.
Alex S.
Nate is only mentioning Huntsman because he wants to build his village credentials. For example, how many articles has he written about Santorum so far? Why does the attention go to Huntsman? – because Huntsman is a semi-rational nominee. But the GOP isn’t a rational party. And Nate isn’t alone.
I never really thought that Romney could win the nomination (my favorite was Perry), but now I can see him cratering like Giuliani. And the next boomlet would not go to Huntsman, but to Paul. If Paul manages to get some post-Iowa momentum, he could climb in New Hampshire as well.
Dave
I really thought this was his angle, to be the only “serious” Republican left after the Tea Party craters the GOP in 2012. But then he said all that wackadoodle shit about climate change. I guess he’s a lot dumber than I thought.
amk
huntsman lives only in msm and blogs like this.
And he is no different than the rest of the clowns in terms of policies that hurt most americans.
rikyrah
Huntsman is a weasel and I’m glad they’re ignoring his weasel ass.
Yevgraf
OT – I gather that the nutwits on the west coast managed to shut down port facilities in Oakland and Portland yesterday. They’re busy with a circle jerk at Kos, roundly abusing anybody who points out that this pointless act did nothing but create enmity from the majority of dockworkers and truckers, many of whom went unpaid yesterday, as evil imports and good exports sat untransferred.
Some of the funnier comments I saw were those lauding how the Russian Revolution started with a strike in Odessa and that the French dumped their cabbage in the road, as if those were movements which ended up well. The gut bustingest howler was the one about how the East Bay was “the best” during Vietnam – as if those numbnuts accomplished anything.
Said it before, will say it again – west coast organizers need to sit down and SHUT THE FUCK UP. None of their efforts ever turn out well, and absolutely crush progress in the rust belt.
Hell, I’m halfway gleeful at the likelihood that some longshoremen will start a hard hat riot, just to make it a little less fun and trendy for west coast leftist emoprogs to come out.
Samara Morgan
/yawn
Huntsman IS Romney to the GOP base– they are both mormons.
That is the core reason Huntsman cant get traction with the base.
Nate studiously avoids the Mormon Factor, but its the elephant in the room.
Mark S.
Huntsman may be the sanest inmate in the asylum, but that’s not saying much. His tax plan is every bit as regressive as Paul Ryan’s.
Amir Khalid
@Dave:
Either a lot dumber, or a lot less principled. Were I a gambling man, I would bet on the latter.
I’d assumed Huntsman was running now to gain the coveted “it’s my turn” spot for 2016. But if so, the poll numbers suggest he’s not making the impact he needs with the party’s base to clinch that spot. If he were to pull out after an early-primary wipe-out, his efforts in this cycle would be for naught; he’d have to start the 2016 cycle “from the back of the grid”, as they say in Formula 1. Huntsman needs to salvage a decent performance this time out, perhaps not least to keep dad’s money flowing for next time, and the pandering to climate-change deniers might reflect desperation on that score.
Samara Morgan
@Yevgraf: the occupys are doing different things right. some are estivating in forclosed homes, some are occupying the voting booth.
‘Occupy the Voting Booth’—Thousands March to Protect the Vote
That is the power of a leaderless grassroots movement– or possibly its weakness. The occupy movement is actually an insurgency– but its a self-organizing emergent paradigm, and very localized– local groups have their own causes.
Kinda like Tahir Square or the Taliban.
And just as hard to stamp out.
Barry
Mistermix: “I can’t count him out completely, but at some point he’s going to stop spending Daddy’s money and realize that he should have kept his powder dry until 2016.”
I think that that was his goal all along, to be the sane one in 2012, while the Tea Party rages and Obama wins. That way he could establish legitimacy in 2016.
Samara Morgan
@Alex S.: bam! Nate and Sully both like Huntsman. Both avoid the Mormon Factor.
Nate refuses to mention it because it will spoil the horserace.
Schlemizel
@Yevgraf:
Had you been paying attention you would see that John covered this ground earlier.
Theres a thread for that
reflectionephemeral
I agree with Alesis at #5. Huntsman has been the beneficiary of the media’s centrist bias. He has no chance, but folks talk about him, because it conceals the fundamental insanity of the Republican Party. When he announced, he got far more coverage from all the major news outlets than Cain, who announced the same day, even though Cain was much more popular.
The funny thing is, as Mark S. points out, Huntsman’s policy proposals are crazy enough for the GOP. But the GOP doesn’t care about policy; they care about displaying animus toward outsiders. Huntsman seems kind of pleasant, so he can’t win– not without the massive support from the party elite that Romney has.
DougJ
I think he’s smart to run as the Official Village Republican this cycle. It worked for McCain in the end.
Samara Morgan
@Barry: but he will still be a mormon in 2016.
the GOP is 50% WEC now, up from 40% in 2008. When Obama wins it will go to 60% or 70%– and Huntsmans chances of getting the nom will be even worse.
Pew did a survey that showed that anti-homosexual sentiment is declining, but anti-mormon sentiment has remained static.
Huntsmans mormonism is going to continue to be a big problem with the GOP base.
i think its hilarious that Nate and the villagers cant even discuss it.
Hoodie
Newt’s rise explains why Huntsman will get nowhere. The wingnuts don’t care about policy, they care about symbols, in particular, symbols that signify aggression. They view this as a fight for survival, so the the candidate that shows the proper belligerence has the inside track to the nomination.
Newt has a host of policy liabilities, but he is getting away with them because he has the right aggressive posture for the base. Huntsman could have all the right wingnut policy positions, such as adopting Ryan’s budget plan, but he still cannot pull off that type of aggression, and it’s doubtful he would ever be able to change that image, due to the mere fact that he deigned to work with Obama. Romney is different. He could pull that off by letting his inner Nixon come out.
Samara Morgan
i guess, like suzanne, Nate and the villagers think “we are better than that”.
Of course a lot of liberals would vote for a mormon if said mormon was running for the dem candidate nomination– but a LOT of conservatives wont.
And it seems to be taboo to even mention it.
;)
Samara Morgan
@DougJ: McCain wasnt a mormon.
JPL
Right wing radio and most candidates use “work ethic” as a code word. I put on the last four minutes of the debate and Huntsman said Americans are the most productive work force in the industrialized world. He’s toast.
Amir Khalid
@Hoodie:
So Huntsman has been trying to position himself all along as above that fray, as the (relatively) sane one in the Republican race. But sanity is not in fashion this season. It’s dragging him down, in fact, and that’s why he’s not getting the poll numbers he needs. If he tries to fix that by shoring up his Teabagger appeal, there’s no guarantee of success; plus there goes his unique selling point, and he might have problems trying to run on it again on 2016. It must suck to be him.
Mark S.
Huntsman’s plan is to go all in in New Hampshire. A fourth place finish and he can quietly drop out.
Samara Morgan
@Amir Khalid: it will be even harder for him to secure the nom in 2016, because the percentage of WECs in the GOP will be higher– possibly 60–70%.
Samara Morgan
@Amir Khalid: it will be even harder for him to secure the nom in 2016, because the percentage of WECs in the GOP will be higher– possibly 60–70%.
Ian
@Schlemizel:
Remember when he later said that booing gay soldiers might have been poor politics? Too sane.
RalfW
Heyya
Can we get a little traction on Romney’s latest stupidity?
Niques
@ET:
Maybe if it is so difficult for anyone on the GOP team to defeat Obama, that means it is not the most pressing issue for Americans today. Did Savage ever think of that?
handsmile
Not only will Huntsman still be a Mormon in 2016, but it will have been seven years since he last held elected office. His one term plus one year as governor of Utah (population less than 3M) is his sole experience as an elected official.
In four years, his role as BFF with Dancin’ Dave and the other Sunday morning Village bobbleheads will not have translated into a national constituency clamoring for Huntsman 2016. A primary challenge that year to Tea Party success story and Utah’s junior senator Mike Lee would be more likely. And if not, he can run always run daddy’s company for as long as he wants.
Mark S.
@handsmile:
That’s an interesting point. There are only 3 candidates who are currently holding office. It used to be nearly all the candidates were holding office. And of those three, two of them are congressmen who never pass any legislation because they are too ideologically extreme.
Having a track record of being a competent public servant is not a plus in today’s GOP. It makes sense because they hate government so much.
Carbon Dated
It’s a little bit incoherent to say that Huntsman, who cannot scrape above “a couple percent” in polls, is “clearly more electable” than the front runners.
In what way is he “more electable”? I think you mean he is marginally less insane than the clowns driving the short bus.
Anonne
I’m glad Huntsman isn’t getting any media oxygen. He’s the most dangerous of the bunch. He isn’t the “reasonable conservative,” he just looks that way. He’s every bit the whack job as the rest, from a policy perspective.
William Hurley
I have had a strong suspicion that the GOP’s nominating convention will be brokered, producing the actual candidate who will represent that party but also that that nominee will be Huntsman.
Brachiator
Electable to whom? Huntsman is a fantasy candidate for liberals, the Republican that they like, and that they would want other Republicans to vote for.
Of course, Huntsman would not be the Democrats’ first or even second choice. I don’t even know that he would be the choice of Independents.
The only thing he has going for him is that he is as bland as Romney, but not as flip floppy or as crazy as Newt.
His past record as governor of Utah is nothing that would or should be acceptable to any liberal. That he is supposedly “electable” is only saying that he is the least stinky turd in the bowl.
amk
@William Hurley: Yet another firebagger dream ? Not.Gonna.Happen.
catclub
@William Hurley: I would be willing to bet $10,000 that won’t happen. ;)
Suffern ACE
@Brachiator:
That’s what I want to know. One of the first steps in the process is securing the nomination of one of the major parties. I don’t see him winning the Republican primary or coming close to winning any state primary or caucus except his home state’s. Maybe he could switch parties and run as a Democrat, but he didn’t file his papers to run in those primaries.
hells littlest angel
It would take a sequence of only a few not-unlikely events for Huntsman to win: 1. Callista guns down Newt in a motel bedroom. 2. Romney keels over of a heart attack while attempting a bowel movement for the first time in his life. 3. Ron Paul assassinated by partisans of the North American Federation. 4. Perry accidentally kills himself while cleaning a gun or eating with a fork. 5. Santorum dies of shame after googling his name. 6. Bachmann gets raptured into heaven.
Schlemizel
@hells littlest angel:
Now you’re making me wish for a Huntsman nomination 8-{D
It’d be worth it!
amk
@hells littlest angel: Talk about killing fields.
William Hurley
@amk:
Excellent bumper sticker platitude. Now, how about some reasoning behind the excuse to bandy about insults.
While you’re contemplating your rationale, give the polling data linked here a peek. Obama’s trailing both Gingrich and Romney in the all-important swing states. Then imagine, if you can or will, the differential when a substantive candidate replaces the 2 GOP clowns in the poll.
Brachiator
@hells littlest angel:
And even here, if all this stuff happened, Sarah Palin would jump in and become the nominee by acclamation.
William Hurley
@catclub:
I’ll take that bet once you establish that you’ve got the $10k and it’s converted to a CD that matures in September.
chrome agnomen
i read where huntsman was asked why he didn’t run under another banner and he replied something like he’d always been a republican and always would be. what exactly does that mean anymore? that is to say, what core values does a person professing to be an ‘old school’ republican have that would differentiate him from today’s average democrat? i guess what i’m saying is how does anyone appearing to be relatively sane call continue to identify with the republican brand? iit should be obvious that the clock is not turning back for the party.
amk
@William Hurley: who the fuck said anything about Obama ? This is the fucking problem with you firebagger types, obama derangement syndrome.
You should root for newt. srsly.
HyperIon
@Mark S.:
True, dat.
However, I was able to watch/listen to Huntsman without cringing whenever I surfed by the debate and he was talking. He was not batshit insane but then he was discussing foreign policy. He ALMOST said that Iran having a nuke MIGHT not be a problem for the US. Imagine.
Nellcote
Huntsman is getting media play because he’s being pushed behind the scenes by the well connected American Elects:
http://irregulartimes.com/index.php/archives/category/americanselect/
JR
I don’t think you actually appreciate just how rich the Huntsman family is. Given the amounts spent on his candidacy thus far, I’m pretty sure what we’re seeing is Huntsman keeping his powder dry for 2016. He’s barely spending cash on this race, even though he’d be able to instantly replenish his personal coffers once he ends his campaign.
I think this cycle was about building name ID and credibility within the party. Even a poor finish still gets him better known nationally than staying in Beijing would have, and he’ll have the chance to make the institutional and personal contacts necessary for a 2016 shot. I’m sure he would have loved to catch fire and win the nomination this time around, but I think he’s been running a six-year plan all along.
Edo
word.