No excuses. It hurt my credibility as a prognosticator when Newt’s half-assed excuse for a campaign took a flaming dive about a week sooner than I predicted it would. Lacking any real infrastructure and loathed by the entire party infrastructure, he can either go down in futile rage and flopsweat, or he can hit the holiday displays at Tiffany’s with Callista. Hmm. We are a Very Serious Blog and will endeavor to help you beat the spread at Intrade serve you better in the future.
Meanwhile, someone has to win the clowniest race since spicy jalapeno pierogie collided with a streaker during the Mrs. T.’s Pierogie Race! at a Pirates home game. If I amble over to the RCP poll-a-rama, I see that Romney picks up some smoldering Newt bits and so does Paul, who just opened a surprise lead in Iowa. I would point out that Michelle Bachmann seems to be picking up a bit of steam as well. Maybe it is nothing, though it looks like more than a stastical blip. If real I would take that as a sign that Newt flew so high (briefly) because he claimed a share of both anti-Romney forces: drooling neanderthals / fundies and the libertarian borg. Newt was belligerent enough to excite the Ow My Balls! FOX crowd yet erudite enough that a libertarian with non-crazy friends would feel not quite ashamed to admit leaning his way. You cannot say both of those things about either Bachmann or Paul, so the two bases are going their separate ways.
Xboxershorts
Great post…
There’s gonna get a taste of Ron Paul and discover a bitterness so profound that it will cause their collective heads to implode…
Yutsano
The not-Willard vote has to go somewhere. Mittens may get the nom but it won’t be with a united party behind him. You can’t go around saying Mormons are evil for decades then turn around and find one suitable for the Presidency. Not without a major case of whiplash. But exposing Christian hypocrites is what this time of year is for right?
Elizabelle
Thank you.
Jewish Steel
@Yutsano: Right. If Romney never gets out of the 20s then Not-Romney consistently polls in the 70s.
I’m holding out for a hero.
Seconded.
Cargo
In two months all of this will be forgotten as the GOP unites behind Mitt, the only Repub with a snowball’s chance of beating Obama in the general. They are authoritarians – this is what they DO. Pundits, rightbloggers, “libertarians”, etc. will all be behind Mitt and whatever crazytown wingnut he picks as VP.
Does nobody remember how much the GOP “hated, hated, hated” John McCain in 2007!?
El Cid
You can’t blame anyone for hoping that the remarkable cartoon character brought to life which is Newt Gingrich would stay in the lead.
gaz
That shouldn’t surprise anyone who’s been conscious for the past year or so.
It’s just the Paul’ers showing up en-masse to fap. Half of them will be too stoned to actually make it to a voting booth, and the others will probably be picked up on misdemeanors. IOW, it doesn’t mean anything, IRL.
Hunter Gathers
The bigot known as Ron Paul will win Iowa. Then he’ll have to explain the racist bullshit printed in his name. When he fails to do so, millions of PaulTards will have conniption fits as their god is exposed for the bigoted piece of neo-confederate shit that he his.
WereBear
And a thank you for the Robocop reference.
When I thought I was going to grow up and live in a science fiction future, I didn’t know it would be a satire.
Jewish Steel
@Cargo: Yes. But I also remember how the press “loved, loved, loved” him. Maybe this one will play out a little differently.
danimal
@Cargo: Ron Paul will win Iowa, but after the GOP is done dating the field, they will marry Romney. He’s a good provider, has a solid resume and his dad is well-thought of in the country club.
GOP 2012: Dated ’em all, married Mitt.
gaz
@danimal: Yep.
We all knew this going in didn’t we?
Tone In DC
I don’t know that Fig Newton is quite toast yet. I say that because I think there are more knuckle draggers in this country than these polls can account for with any real accuracy.
Didn’t McCain/Palin get 47% of the vote in 2008? Old cranky cancer survivor and the overtly unqualified Snowbound Winking Grifter did that well in the general election with the memory of Bush Jr. fresh in everyone’s minds.
And now, with 24/7/365 “Blame Obama” all natural fertilizer on TV on Fox and CNN for these low information voters? Newt could get 45% of the popular vote if he had Dan Quayle’s son as VP nominee.
gaz
@Tone In DC: I got $50 on newt losing the NOM. care to wager?
Seahawks aren’t reliable losers anymore – just trying to make up for the loss of that betting spree (that made me a ton of cash over the years).
This seems a good alternative.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Cargo: Yes, but remember, the only reason they hated McCain was because he had spoken against the party at times. When he transformed into RepubMcCain, where the party could do no wrong, they all lined up behind him.
There’s a good chunk of Republicans that will only line up behind Romney only if he stops being Mormon. It’s not that this number will be huge, but a few percentage points will be enough.
dmsilev
So, absent any more surprises, Ron Paul looks to be the favorite in Iowa two weeks from tomorrow. Then things get amusing. NH has a fair-sized contingent of frothing libertarians, so it’s not out of the question for Paul to do fairly well there. What happens if Paul takes Iowa and NH, and some other Not Romney takes South Carolina?
El Cid
Didn’t Huckabee win huge in Iowa? That victory catapulted him into the FOXNOOZ cockpit. (Pun not intended, but approved.)
JPL
@dmsilev: Paul wins Iowa, Romney wins NH, Gingrich wins SC and someone wins FL. Gingrich is still popular in the south. Of course, if he keeps opening his mouth that could change.
What states are not winner takes all?
MattF
One thing about Noot is that he’s gotten crazier over the past few years. Maybe the ecstasy of life with a hard-eyed blonde has gone to his head, such as it is… But that business of arresting Federal judges that disagree with him really crossed the Yosemite Sam line-in-the-sand, and now everyone knows it.
Jewish Steel
@dmsilev: Even if Paul does well in NH and a NotRom takes South Carolina (Newt is still CRUSHING in Florida) Romney looks weak and ineffectual. “Not a leader,” the punditariat will proclaim.
Snarki, child of Loki
Yep, Newt’s turn as “GOP flavor of the month” is just about over.
And the Republitard thumbsuckers, standing at the counter, are going down the list of flavors one by one, before finally deciding on….wait for it…
VANILLA!
EconWatcher
Perry’s still sitting on a load of cash. He is the only not-Romney with a plausible resume. And since when did you have to be able to walk and chew gum at the same time in that party?
I say Perry might still come back (but no, gaz, I’m not willing to bet on it).
Spaghetti Lee
@Cargo:
I don’t know, I think the dynamics are a bit different. The Tea Party crowd didn’t spend all of 2004-2008 getting preened and sweet-talked like they’ve been the last 4 years. I think they’ll want their time in the sun, and some Notromney out there might be crazy enough to give it to them as a third-party guy.
Just a hunch, and I’m probably wrong, but it strikes me just how consistently Romney can’t get above 20-25%. You’d think that at least a few Teapublicans would be resigning themselves to their fate by now and his poll numbers would be climbing at least slowly. Are they all going to do an about-face sometime in early January? Like you said, I don’t doubt their ability to fall in line and drop all old squabbles down the memory hole.
dmsilev
@MattF: My understanding is that Perry has the Yosemite Sam franchise this time round. Gingrich is more the “Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius” type.
Which I guess would make Obama a combination of the Road Runner and Bugs Bunny.
Tony J
@Jewish Steel:
Really? More like “Romney still on course to claim nomination!”, followed by “GOP makes Romney their man!”, easing gently into “Mitt Romney – He’s united the Republican Party, is he the man to Unite America? Yes – He Can!”
They’re nothing if not predictable.
Anoniminous
After two weeks of “No-Newt All the Time” his numbers have fallen.
Romney continues to hover around 24%.
Paul may or may not win Iowa but it doesn’t matter. He’s not going to get the nomination, although he could be a spoiler through-out the campaign, grabbing the odd delegate here & there.
More important is when Perry and Bachmann drop-out. If they do drop-out. Together they grab about 13% national support and it’s support that will most likely drift to Gingrich if and or when they go Bye-Bye. I note Obama only jumped into the lead in 2008 when Edwards bowed-out after New Hampshire, unifying (so to speak) the “Not-Clinton” vote (so to speak.) Gingrich is leading Romney in South Carolina (38% to 21%) and Florida (40% to 14%, although that poll was done earlier this month.)
In the light of all this the only rational forecast is, “Answer hazy, try again later.”
chopper
@WereBear:
that’s not robocop. you’re thinking ‘i’ll buy that for a dollar!’
OW, MY BALLS is from idiocracy.
Omnes Omnibus
The proper bet is $10k.
Zach
I’m really interested in seeing his next quarterly financial statement. A successful, hard-fought campaign is perpetually in debt because there’s no value in hanging on to money. A losing campaign has trouble paying off debts (this is sometimes a factor in endorsements). However, if you take in a ton of money, use it all to buy television ad production from your own production company, and don’t go into debt, you can make a killing.
gaz
@Omnes Omnibus: lol!
gaz
FTR,
Romney will win the GOP NOM and lose the general.
I made that a single statement, easily quotable, so you can readily copy and paste, in order to hold it against me in perpetuity if I’m wrong.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Tony J: @Spaghetti Lee: They’ll never love Romney, but they never loved McCain, either. They fell in love with Palin, and they’ll fall in love with Bob McDonnell, who speaks they’re language and even has the right accent when he does it. Meanwhile, the press will point out that Romney’s difficulties with the base just proves that he’s really a moderate who can save us from the divisive tone of the Obama era.
Benjamin Franklin
@gaz:
didn’t hear your chines on the Manning thread.
Moonbatting Average
Ow My Balls! has to become a tag, right?
DFH no.6
@Cargo:
Yes, exactly.
matoko-chan’s protestations notwithstanding, Willard’s Mormonism will be an obstacle – not a deal-breaker – in the primaries, but nearly a non-factor in the general.
The fascists will all unite (as they did with McCain) against the Kenyan Muslim Usurper, including the christofascists who consider Mormonism a cult.
They also consider the Catholic Church to be the Whore of Babylon, but have no problem supporting and voting for Catholic Republicans over any Democrat even of the “right” religion.
Romney’s main task in the general will not be keeping the little authoritarians in lockstep, but convincing enough swing voters (true independents who don’t always just happen to vote R, and conservadems) to move his way. The media will carry oceans of water for him in that endeavor.
Anoniminous
@JPL:
The only one I’ve found, so far, is Florida.
All the rest, that I’ve looked at, allocate by majority vote by Congressional district and with state At-Large delegates assigned by percentage of total state vote with a cut-off (usually 20%) and using various formulas and procedures to determine who gets what.
gaz
@Benjamin Franklin: my chines?
Not sure what you mean. I need to stay off the manning thread for now, as I lack the energy for yet another protracted flame war.
MikeJ
@Anoniminous:
More true than you know.
gaz
@MikeJ: heh
Jewish Steel
@Tony J: You’re probably right. I’m trying to think like a lazy journalist ginning up controversy.
Hill Dweller
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Furthermore, as embarrassing as McCain became for people who follow politics closely, he was/is revered in the country at large due to his being a POW. Consequently, he had sky high personal approval ratings, which gave him a margin of error in the campaign. Adding Caribou Barbie to the ticket was a bridge too far for a lot of people. If McCain had put a more sensible VP candidate on the ticket, it would have been a lot closer, although I still think he would have come up short.
Romney doesn’t enjoy that level of good will. In fact, the one constant of his public life has been voters despising him the more they see him. I’m sure the big money people and right wing propaganda machine will certainly help him, as will the poor economy, but he is going to need some help from Obama and/or outside events(like a European financial collapse) to win.
randalms
I think a big part of the structure of the current Republican campaign
is that it is similar to the plot of ‘The Producers’. Somehow,
a bunch of the Republican candidates have got it rigged so that they
will get rich by campaigning and losing big. What could go wrong? Well
the Repulican voters have gotten so crazy that they get excited about
voting for the candidate
equivalent of ‘Springtime for Hitler’. When each of the
‘Springtime for Hitler’ candidates starts getting bizzarely, unexpectedly
popular they manically re-double their efforts to lose. This is what
Gingrich was up to today – he was getting really scared he might acutally do
well in the primaries, so he had to do something FAST- He cranked up the
Newt-ron beams in his brain, crossed the streams, and wired up the results
directly to his mouth on Face the Nation, where he claimed that the
President had some Super Powers: that he could arrest judges, ignore
the legal system, and melt the polar ice caps with his steely vision!
Okay, this explains, Newt, Bachman, and Cain. Perry – I don’t think he
understands the plot of the Producers ( plot lines are too complicated for
him) but he is just copying their strategy anyways, as that is something he
does know how to do. Romney, well I cannot really explain him.
Yevgraf
Wait – we have a new clown emerging from the clown car….
http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/jeb-bush-pens-campaign-economic-manifesto/264566
Oh, please God – let this be so.
gaz
@Hill Dweller: Umm,
McCain would have come in a lot closer, (even with Moosolini as the veep) were it not for his asinine position on the economy leading up to the crash.
Rewind to 2008 and you’ll recall that the McCain momentum was gutted in direct proportion with our 401ks
Had the economy waited for 6 months before tanking, it’s likely we would be talking about President McCain at the moment. Not a certainty, but definitely likely
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yevgraf: I don’t know enough about the mechanics and legalities of the party nomination process to know if it is, in fact too late, as the likes of Tweety assure us, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Jebbie is laying the ground work for 2016 rather than next year.
gaz
@Yevgraf: Isn’t it pretty much too late for Ryan to step into the game? (other than as a write in?) maybe I’m wrong on that. wouldn’t be surprised.
If Ryan does run, and it’s not too late, I may have to reconsider my prediction that Romney will win the NOM
Edit: Ooops – I stepped in it. This was about Jeb.
He’ll never get the NOM.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Healine: Jeb Bush Condems Wall St Bailouts
John Ellis Bush, Lucky Sperm Club, Class of 1948
MikeJ
@gaz: I still don’t think he would have won. As you said, he was disliked because of his asinine position on the economy, not the economy. The McCain campaign was in full panic mode all fall. They had no idea what they were doing and they made it obvious. Every time he tried to make himself look like a leader he looked more buffoonish.
The McCain campaign was doomed because they had McCain on it. Which explains why the party leaders love Romney. Generic Republican always polls well but the party has trouble when they have to have a human out front. With Romney they avoid the humans and run with pure Generic Republican.
Anoniminous
@MikeJ:
Re: “the odd delegate”
This
Judas Escargot
@Omnes Omnibus:
Or, for Ron Paul voters: ‘One Silver Dime’.
jibeaux
What Kubler-Ross stage is the Bachmann/Paul vote, would you say? Bargaining, or depression?
JPL
So is voucher man Paul Ryan going to be the VP candidate? Nicky Haley is hoping for a position also, too.
burnspbesq
Gingrich’s statement over the weekend that he would send the Marshal’s Service to arrest judges that handed down decisions he didn’t like certainly didn’t hurt him.
Yes, that’s an over-simplification, but it’s the most likely takeaway for the average low-info wingnut voter.
Hill Dweller
@gaz: This is off the top of my head, so correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember reading an analysis of the campaign which showed McCain’s numbers began dropping steadily after the initial Palin bump but before the economic collapse.
Yes, McCain’s disastrous response to the economy faltering certainly expedited his demise, but he was in trouble before that, IIRC.
Jewish Steel
@gaz: Let’s not forget Bush’s toxic numbers. Republican fatigue contributed to Obama’s win.
gaz
@MikeJ:
buh buh buh, he was so “moderate!” (lulz!)
You very well may be right. I’m not sure though, just because the GOP seems to confuse #winning and winning (as do the “independents” – synonym for low-info-voters)
I distinctly recall that he had a lot of support. But yeah – he was an ass. But historically speaking, so was Reagan, and it didn’t stop him. Like I said #winning vs winning. It’s really all the same to a plurality of our electorate. They don’t know the difference.
At any rate, suffice it to say, that casting the bones in the regard is ultimately an exercise in mental masturbation, so I should have let it lie. However, I will agree with what you seem to be implying, that Palin probably didn’t lose the election for mccain.
Mike in NC
E. J. Dionne with a good piece dissecting Newt’s career and current predicament:
http://www.reflector.com/opinion/dionne/dionne-gingrichs-rise-803151
Honestly, they could bring back Dubya to run for another term like Grover Cleveland did and he’d poll better than Willard.
Studly Pantload, the emotionally unavailable unicorn
@WereBear: “And a thank you for the Robocop reference.
When I thought I was going to grow up and live in a science fiction future, I didn’t know it would be a satire.”
Then shame on you for not paying attention. If anything, Robocop went out of its way to show us the future would be every bit as ridiculous as the present (past).
gaz
@Jewish Steel: yeah – which is a primary reason McCain scooped the NOM.
He was the un-bush. Supposedly moderate – big R, little D kinda. supposedly. heh.
Jewish Steel
@gaz: He was those things plus The Next In Line, which Rs venerate.
Anoniminous
@Jewish Steel:
And OFA did a good job of mobilizing support and their successful GOTV operation.
And the fact Obama is a damn good campaigner.
MikeJ
@gaz: McCain had decent personal approval ratings because people liked the idea of McCain the tough talking POW who wasn’t in lockstep with his own party. What they got instead was a cranky old guy who just acted mean when anybody disagreed with him and whose reaction to crisis was to shut down his campaign.
David Letterman may have saved the republic by allowing people to see that McCain was a thin skinned weasel, not the imaginary war hero they had been sold.
gaz
@Jewish Steel: I agree with you 100% in that regard.
and now the next in line is Romney. Even though they hate him, they will nom him – just like they did with McCain.
Mike in NC
@JPL:
With her popularity in SC in the low 30s, getting out of Columbia just might be high on Nikki’s 2012 wish list.
WereBear
@chopper: Thank you, getting my dystopias mixed up there.
Jewish Steel
@Anoniminous: Absolutely. Limiting my scope to what Ds have no particular control over. We couldn’t ask for a better campaigner.
Suffern ACE
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I would probably laugh myself into the hospital if it turns out that the candidate that the “person not the party” people had in mind turned out not to be Bayh, but Jeb Bush.
Gin & Tonic
@Mike in NC:
I’ve been to Columbia. I’d think getting out of there would be high on anyone’s wish list.
Gin & Tonic
@MikeJ: Couldn’t agree more. Personally, I think David Letterman and Tina Fey deserve the Presidential Medal of Freedom. With a McCain/Palin administration I’m convinced the only reason US troops would be leaving Iraq now would be to go to war with Iran.
Amir Khalid
@MikeJ:
David Letterman and Tina Fey did great service to America and the world in 2008, by exposing McCain and Palin respectively.
Liberty60
Is Ow! My Balls! a tag, or do we have to content ourself with Bring On The Brawndo!
Pillsy
So what, they’re gonna put Nikki Hailey on the ticket in a desperate bid to actually lose South Carolina…?
Anya
@Jewish Steel: You’re giving the pundits too much credit. Just compare MSM’s coverage of Romney’s struggles with the base with the lie that refuses to die: ” the base is deserting Obama.”
BO_Bill
On behalf of drooling Neanderthals everywhere, it is noted that the very real possibility of Ron Paul winning a vote that includes females is quite impressive.
Benjamin Franklin
So, we’re all in agreement. Newt, bad.
Fait Ammcompli !
JPL
If I had an extra 10K, I’d put it on a Romney/Ryan ticket for the repubs.
also,too…it’s the two white men ticket
trollhattan
And over in this corner, some Hillbots.
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2011/12/schoen-and-caddells-shocking-new-plan.html
Anya
@trollhattan: Why do I have the feeling that if HRC was the Dem President, she would be the one they’re attaching now.
g
@randalms: I’m with you. Newtie’s doing everything he can do to lose the nom while still maintianing enough gravitas to raise his speaking fee.
Jewish Steel
@Anya: I’ll take your word for it. I haven’t watched MSM TV in years.
Villago Delenda Est
“Your circuit’s dead is there something wrong?”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@trollhattan: My only surprise is that NYM found this comment-worthy. Isn’t this the third time, at least, Schoen and Caddell have published this in one form or another?
@Anya: Caddell would. He played this same role in the nineties. Hated Bill Clinton as much as any right-winger. IIRC he worked for Perot and tried to recruit a third party candidate in 2000. Schoen is a hard-core Clintonite.
Gin & Tonic
@Amir Khalid: Looks like you owe me a beverage.
Suffern ACE
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Democrats are abandoning Obama in droves. Here to comment on that are Caddell and Schoen, with a foreward by Dick Morris and Mark Penn.
flukebucket
I see Mitt got the coveted Bob Dole endorsement. I didn’t even know Bob Dole was still alive.
Anonymous Wuss
Remember Operation Chaos from 2008?
Why not urge all the Democrats & Independents to vote in the GOP primary in ’12 (in CA you have to register as GOP by year end, so hurry) for Ron Paul or Gary Johnson?
Let’s give Limbaugh a taste of his own medicine, why don’t we? You can, of course, vote your conscience in the general election!
JGabriel
Newt Gingrich — Fat slob in his underwear, posting book reviews on Amazon.com.
Yes, it’s really him.
.
Mike in NC
@flukebucket:
Make you wonder if Bob Dole even knows that Bob Dole is still alive.
JGabriel
It’s just so classy, that a Presidential nominee would be an Amazon book reviewer. It gives him that literate … uh, je ne sais quoi?
‘Cause Newt’s a thinker, doncha know? And an idea man too.
.
Brandon
Since they are running out of ‘not-Mitt’ candidates, at what point do they start polling ‘inanimate carbon rod’?
JGabriel
@jibeaux:
I’m gonna have to go with stage 3, Bargaining. I suspect stages 4 and 5, Depression and Acceptance, will not be distinguishable from each other, particularly if the nominee is Romney.
.
different-church-lady
There’s only one question left at this point: does the Paul surge end soon enough for HUNTSMANIA to get a turn?
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@randalms: I believe this comment has earned you the internets for a day. Well done! This part was the best: