It’s way early, but I like this poll, so let’s look at it. Don’t tell me the only poll that matters is the one on election day, because, well, I know that:
According to the survey, 49% of Americans approve of the job Obama’s doing in the White House, up five points from last month, with 48% saying they disapprove, down six points from mid-November. The 49% approval rating is the president’s highest since May, when his number hit 54% thanks to a bounce following the killing of Osama bin Laden. Since then, in CNN polling, Obama’s approval rating has hovered in the mid-40s.
“President Barack Obama’s approval rating appears to be fueled by dramatic gains among middle-income Americans,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “The data suggest that the debate over the payroll tax is helping Obama’s efforts to portray himself as the defender of the middle class.”
Obama’s gains have come at the expense of the Republicans in Congress and the GOP in general. By a 50% to 31% margin, people questioned say they have more confidence in the president than in congressional Republicans to handle the major issues facing the country. Obama held a much narrower 44% to 39% margin in March.
And the GOP’s overall favorable rating has dropped to six points, to 43%, since June, while the Democrats’ positive rating remained steady at 55%.
“The Democrats do particularly well among middle income Americans, while the Republicans win support only from the top end of the income scale,” adds Holland.
There’s a shocker. Republicans only do well in the top end of the income scale. One of the nice things about reading (actual) polls is the plain language. Rest assured you won’t hear that sentence phrased so bluntly again.
Here’s what interests me, however:
The survey indicates that Obama remains personally popular, with three-quarters saying they approve of him as a person.
Since Obama was elected, I have heard over and over that Americans don’t “connect” with him, mostly from millionaire pundits, but still. I heard it phrased like this the other day, from one or another gasbag: “no fundamental emotional connection”.
What does “approve of him as a person” mean, then? Is that more abstract and cerebral than “connect” or something? I would think it means they simply like him (what they know of him, of course) as a person or national figure. Does it not mean that? Is “approve” very much different than “like”? Can they approve of him without connecting with him? Sort of a cold, distant, approval?
Yutsano
They’re trying to paint Obama as an elitist who doesn’t sympathize with everyday American issues. IOW, another dogwhistle.
kay
@Yutsano:
So they’re wrong? “Approve” has to include “connect”?
My own working theory was that he does not “connect” with the individual pundit, on a personal to-that-pundit level, because they’re so intensely self-absorbed, but that was just me.
Allan
Hush, Kay! We’re trying to create a meme over here! — The Villagers
Zifnab
@Yutsano:
Where as Romney will be their Man-of-the-People. Oh irony.
Violet
“Approve of him as a person” means something along the lines of, he’s faithful to his wife, he has a nice family, he’s got moral standards he generally lives up to, etc. “Connect” means they want to have a beer with him.
But yeah, it’s pretty much trying to paint him as an elitist. See: beer, wanting to have one with.
Allan
@kay: His lips fail to connect with their moist bits.
Jewish Steel
You never loved me, Daddy! Oh, did I say that out loud?
kay
@Allan:
I hardly ever listen to them, I swear.
I’ve gotten fairly disciplined about that, but I have wondered about it every time I’ve heard it, because his personal approval ratings are always quite high.
Zam
@kay: That’s close, he doesn’t connect well the they mythical version of the working class that the pundits have come up with.
Egg Berry
Hmmm. 100-75=25. Why does that number sound familiar?
jibeaux
Call me cynical, but I think pundits have not found a label that works well to tag Obama with, so the best they can do is say that people aren’t connecting with him.
Anyway, it’s still interesting to see that people do approve of him as a person, for whatever that’s worth. I read a children’s book on Obama to my daughter (she picked it out, no liberal indoctrination up in here, no sirree), and it honestly made me tear up a little, it was such a nice, inspiring message. Child of many worlds and two races who believed that we could all just get along, and as hackneyed as that is, just try writing a children’s book about W with that sort of vibe.
Yutsano
@kay: Part of being a pundit is going with your gut about what the American public is feeling and thinking. This is learned through social interactions at the various cocktail parties around DC. Now do you see the Obamas attending such parties? No? He therefore MUST not be connecting with the people. Game, set, and match.
@Zifnab: The Romneybot2012 is still refining its programming. It will be the perfect Presidential candidate soon.
SkynetRomneybot2012 is aware.kay
@Violet:
Right, that’s what they mean. But is that true? Is that what “approve of him as a person” means when you hear it, say if you were asked that question? I don’t know that it means that to me. There’s overlap there for me.
schrodinger's cat
The media, I am looking at you Maureen Dowd, has flogged this meme since before the 2008 elections. That Obama is cool, aloof and distant.
Mike Goetz
The key is simply to ignore the pundits, as Obama does. It drives them up a wall. He is not connecting with them, and doesn’t care to.
We little people have always liked Obama just fine.
AnotherBruce
Something needs to be done about this approval rating stuff ASAP. Otherwise, what will there be to pundit about?
4tehlulz
Needs more polarization.
WaterGirl
@schrodinger’s cat: I believe that Jewish Steel was channeling Maureen Dowd when he said this upthread:
kay
@Zam:
Okay, but what might change their minds? Something’s gotta give here, because I’m not seeing this giant divide:
Calouste
So let me get this straight:
Being so incompetent that some guy can kill 3,000 people in America: 90% approval.
Actually getting and killing aforementioned guy: 54% approval.
Ben Cisco
Standard Ferengi modus operandi: deflect, obfuscate, appear reasonable and concerned while spinning away. It’s all bullshit, and the number of people who can recognize it for what it is appears to be growing despite the best efforts of Faux, TeaNN, and a whole cavalcade of others.
__
Expect the roar to get louder.
Mnemosyne
I’m still convinced it’s a “Midwesterners vs. New Yorkers” perception in a lot of ways. All of these East Coast pundits think Obama is cold and aloof because they’re comparing him to, say, Chris Christie. But that’s not how we roll in the Midwest (or Hawaii, for that matter, which is probably one of the reasons Obama was able to fit in so comfortably when he moved to Chicago).
The media wants a level of macho that people just don’t do in the Midwest.
Violet
@kay:
There’s overlap for me too. But I live in a red state and have to interact with wingnuts on a pretty regular basis. I’ve heard people I know to be quite rightwing saying things like, “He’s got a nice family and he seems to be a nice guy.” Followed by words that mean, “but he’s still the elitist, soshulist Kenyan usurper.” So yeah, I can definitely see people being able to separate “approve of” and “connect.” I hear people do it.
Tony J
No one could possibly have predicted that making the next election a choice between Obama and the GOP would fail as a tactic if the Congressional GOP acted like destructive little thugs 24/7 and the GOP Presidential Primaries wafted the unpleasant stench of barrel-scrapings towards the electorate every other Sunday.
“You’re either with us or against us” is proving to be a losing argument for the Republicans, and it’s only going to get worse when they pick a figurehead for 2012.
kay
@Violet:
Thanks. That rings true to me. I never hear “nice guy” but the only people who are engaging me locally on politics at this juncture are belligerent, angry, defensive conservatives, so maybe that’s it.
AnotherBruce
@Mnemosyne:
The media wants a level of macho that people just don’t do in the Midwest
Yeah, because when I think of macho, I think of east coast media pundits. I mean, just look at George Will, Richard Cohen, David Gregory and George Stephanopolous. Wouldn’t want to meet those guys in a dark alley.
kay
@Jewish Steel:
He’s in dad-mode. This is 5 minutes ago:
I love the image of drunken degenerate John Boehner playing poker with America’s future.
“This is not a game, John”. He should say that.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Zifnab: Well, Romney did point out that he’s unemployed, too. Not just robotic, but tone deaf as well.
slag
I think, in the Venn Diagram of this question, the “Connect” circle would be much smaller than the “Approve” circle that surrounds it.
Just guessing here since I think my Connect circle would be extremely small and probably wouldn’t include anyone that I didn’t already know personally. So, when pundits say stuff about my wanting to have beer with people I’ve never met before, I have no idea where they’re getting their information. It would be nice if they used footnotes in their arguments. Or at least endnotes.
Tony J
@AnotherBruce:
There’s a fanfic about that exact scenario on the Politico/slash sister site.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Violet:
It means they know he’s “The One”, but since he doesn’t reaffirm their personal beliefs they are looking for reasons to throw a fit.
Mnemosyne
@AnotherBruce:
And that’s why the east coast media pundits love loud, obnoxious bullies. Obama is too much like them to be entertaining. They can’t live vicariously through him like they can through the bullies.
Linda Featheringill
@AnotherBruce: #26
Oh, you’re bad! [tee, hee]
Hill Dweller
@kay: The President also called on Boehner to have an up or down vote on the Senate’s bill, which exposes that sham of a vote the House had earlier today and the Republican House leadership’s fear that it will pass.
Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal
but do they approve of obama as a corporation?
Hill Dweller
Not to be a wet blanket, but the new PPP poll has Romneybot leading Obama 47-45 nationally. That is the first time he has led Obama since July 2010.
The Other Bob
@Egg Berry:
12% PUMA
13% New Crazification factor?
wrb
@Hill Dweller:
This detail is interesting from that poll:
Hard-working firebaggers see their reward?
AnotherBruce
And that’s why the east coast media pundits love loud, obnoxious bullies. Obama is too much like them to be entertaining. They can’t live vicariously through him like they can through the bullies.
True in a way, except for the fact that he’s actually been resposible for killing some bad guys. But I guess he doesn’t do the tough talk thing.
kay
@Hill Dweller:
I’m enjoying it, because Ohio Democrats are going berserk with glee. They have Portman (R) and Brown (D) in the Senate, who voted for it, and they then they have Boehner out there, just twisting in the wind, and then they have Sherrod Brown’s opponent, Josh Mandel, who is trying to retain his lunatic Tea Party base while running a campaign for the Senate in a swing state, and they’re insisting Mandel take a SIDE, with Portman/Brown OR with Boehner.
It’s so great that Boehner is an Ohio Republican.
rikryah
to MSM read the same polls, and I think it’s the reason why, despite their negative coverage of POTUS over NINETY PERCENT, the poll numbers do not reflect it.
and, they are PISSED about it.
El Cid
I look forward to hearing about how Americans just can’t personally connect with Obama as he stands next to Thurston Howell the Third.
Mino
I suspect that by the time 2012 rolls around, the Republicans will basically skip Wisconsin, Ohio, (and perhaps Florida by that time) in their campaigning like Democrats skip Texas.
carpeduum
A perfect example of these gasbags that say “he doesn’t connect” is Chris Matthews. They all have a few things in common. Rich old white guys.
I think a psychologist might say Obama makes them feel like lesser men because he is better than them in just about every way possible including being younger….and of course there is the whole black thing. For their entire lives these old farts have been used to seeing an old white guy holding the highest office….now they are an old white guy and they just “can’t connect”. Not the other way around.
tamied
I personnally don’t want my president to be someone I’d have a beer with. My beer-drinking pals would not be good presidents.
Roger Moore
@Mino:
If the Republicans give up on Ohio and Florida, they might as well not bother with any of the other states. Without those two they’ve pretty much conceded the election. There’s also a good chance that giving up on those swing states would mean a lot of damage there down-ticket, which they can’t afford, especially if they don’t control the Presidency.
Hill Dweller
@carpeduum: If Obama wins a second term, they’ll pretend he changed his behavior, instead of admitting they’re clueless.
Tone in DC
@Hill Dweller:
What is the margin of error for that poll?
Mino
@Roger Moore: Oh, I agree. But I think the Republican governors and statehouses will accomplish it. Their brand is gonna be toxic sludge by the time they get through with all their reforms.
And I’m still not convinced that savvy Republican strategists even want to win the White House right now.
EconWatcher
@Mino:
I suspect the chance for Supreme Court appointemnts is reason enough for them to want the presidency every time, even if they’d be inheriting an iredeemable mess (as it is for us too).
Anya
@Mnemosyne: Are you saying then, that all the lefties who are constantly filling my facebook with articles and stupid blog posts that lament President Obama’s supposed wimpiness or his lack of “balls” want their own Chris Christie?
Also, too, are all the firebaggers from the South, northeast or California?
Jewish Steel
@Mnemosyne: Hell yes! That’s exactly right. Esp the Hawaiian part. I can see aspects of every Hawaiian I’ve ever met in Obama.
Snowball
Well, I think I heard it a million times that people connected with George W Bush. And look what that got us. We went from budget surpluses, an idiotic war etc etc.
Elections have consequences…
Mino
@EconWatcher: They have their five already for all intents. Anything more would be gravy. And I don’t know of any of the five that are set for retirement that quickly.
Jewish Steel
@kay: Furthermore, who the hell wouldn’t a cool, calm technocrat in the most powerful chair in the world? America made its choice on that score in 2008.
Neldob
Maybe ‘approve as a person’ means they respect him. Not that they would want to drink with him necessarily.
Egg Berry
@Mino:
Scalia and Kennedy are both 75. While they might not retire, four years is a long time.
Mnemosyne
@Anya:
Yep. They wanted Obama to be just like Bush, only from the left — a loud, overbearing bully. Why they thought they would get that from Obama, I have no idea, but that’s what they wanted.
A whole lot of them seem to be. I’m in California now, and it feels like there are very few middle-of-the-roaders out here, at least among the most vocal political activists. People are either far, far left (Berkeley) or far, far right (Orange County). I haven’t seen too many firebaggers from Minnesota.
CarolDuhart2
@Hill Dweller: I wonder if being the week before Christmas hasn’t distorted that poll a bit. I mean, who’s home or not busy during Xmas week? Older voters who don’t spend their days at the mall, aren’t planning to go anywhere or need to go anywhere. Add to that the possibility that a lot of people just don’t have politics in focus this week, and it’s probably just an outlier of sorts.
Dr. Squid
@Yutsano: And here I thought it meant that he doesn’t get his weener sucked by his interns.
Thoughtcrime
Kay,
It’s simple.
The problem is Obama doesn’t fit in naturally at the Applebee’s salad bar.
ET
Unfortunately all politics is local and while I am glad Obama is doing well nationally for the Senators and Representatives up for reelection – especially if the goal is to knock of GOP candidates. Most don’t seem to think their representative is the “problem” and so change in the House or Senate depends on those who can get out the vote and vote in numbers. And during a reelection election season, the number for the local elections seem to favor Republicans.
Mnemosyne
@ET:
Actually, I think we have a good chance to take back the House, because the wave in 2010 brought in a huge number of inexperienced Tea Party Republicans who don’t understand basic things like constituent services. You can’t scream at your constituents who ask questions at your town hall meetings like Rep. Joe Walsh and expect to be re-elected.
I think there’s a good chance that the Democrats could take the House back next year IF we work our asses off.
ETA: Also, too, if Wisconsin Democrats haven’t recruited a strong candidate to run against Paul Ryan, they’re friggin’ idiots.
askew
@Mnemosyne:
I think this is really it. He truly has a midwestern attitude and I think it makes the pundits nuts. But, it is also why he did so well in the Midwest in 2008 and while I think he’ll do well there in 2012.
TooManyJens
@Jewish Steel:
Mere words cannot express how relieved I am that Barack Obama and not John McCain is the president right now, given recent events in the Middle East and North Korea.
julie
WP has Pres Obama’s approval at 49%, too.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi…C5O_story.html
kay
Thoughtcrime, I think Obama would do fine at a salad bar.
But, then, I think political pundits are the most rigidly conventional people in the world.
I think they’d be all out of sorts and squirmy at a local Rotary event.
They need to shake it up a little. Hire some people from outside. Something. Get some air in there.
MCA
Crazy idea with no idea how to implement, but it seems to me these sorts of positive polls for the President, combined with the steady trickle of improving economic news could be used to turn one of the media’s worst habits in the President’s favor. We all know how the media is all and only about the horse race in a Presidential election year. They just need their attention shifted to a different shiny race to focus on. The focus shouldn’t be Obama vs. GOP clowndidate, because that’s boring; it should be Obama vs. Reagan ’84. No one will want to be the first big media figure to start framing this for fear of being heckled if the actual election turns into some sort of actual race, but as soon as someone says it, it would become the only meme we hear. How can this seed get planted?
Roger Moore
@Thoughtcrime:
I suspect it’s that he doesn’t fit in well at all at the aptly named Cracker Barrel, or that a lot of country clubs in the Washington DC area would still prefer that people like the President come in through the
servants’employees’ entrance.catclub
@MCA: neat idea. If employment keeps perking along. It could happen.
gelfling545
@Fucen Pneumatic Fuck Wrench Tarmal: You know I was wondering about this corporations as persons thing. So now, if you terminate a corporate entity is it murder (or maybe euthanasia)?
sherparick
It really is amazing that for the Villagers, most of whom our in the bottom part of the 1%, it really does come down to having their marginal tax rates on their income over $350,000 go up from 35% t 39%. They can’t stand Obama for it. Of course the Plutocrats, even a small change could mean an extra $50,000,000 in taxes if you are taking in almost $500 hundred million like Steve Schwartzman. By the way, if this is what they call “debunking,” then they are the imbeciles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-20/bankers-join-billionaires-to-debunk-imbecile-attack-on-top-1-.html
burritoboy
If the Republicans aren’t doing at least reasonably in Ohio, they’re in a lot of trouble. If they’re struggling in Florida, they might as well not run anybody at all. Republicans have to have at least somewhat of a shot at Wisconsin, doing OK or better than OK in Ohio and feeling solid in Florida for them to have a chance. Otherwise, they’re just wasting everyone’s time.
Karen
@Anya
I don’t know about the South but the Northeast and California? I’m sure a good many are. The Northeast and California tends to be more liberal than the Midwest. In Maryland we had Connie Morella, a Republican who was more liberal than some Democrats in the Midwest. It’s hard to believe but it was less than ten years ago.
I think that the “firebaggers” living in the Northeast and California have a skewed idea of how liberal the rest of the country is for a general election. It’s easy to say that Kucinich and Nader are the ideal Dems when you live on either coast but they have no chance winning the national election. They couldn’t even win in the Democratic primaries!
And those who say Hilary Clinton would have been better…hmmmm….she was pro Iran war so we’d have been involved with foreign wars. Chances are the same Bush like policies Obama has implemented would have been the same with her as President – I’m sure as Secretary of State she’s had input into our policies so that shoots that idea down. Health Care? She already had baggage involved with that so she might not have even gotten anything.
Newsflash, HRC is as centrist as Obama is. There isn’t all that much difference with them. So what is it about Obama that the PUMAs hate so much…hmmmm….after all, the Birther movement was not started by the GOP. It was started by HRC’s buddy, David Berg. A DEMOCRAT.
CaliCat
But Barbara Walters smugly quoted that AP poll which said 70% of Americans disapprove of the job PBO is doing (or some such crap) in her recent interview with him. OMG, Barbara, what now?
OzoneR
@CaliCat:
Tell us again why we should be so fascinated by the walking, pooping publicity stunts known as the Kardashians?
master c
@Karen: Dude come to Texas….Midwest is a liberal bastion in comparison.
CaliCat
@OzoneR: LOL. I also too wonder if the brilliant BW is still smitten with Sarah Palin.
Thoughtcrime
@kay:
This outsider can shake things up and inject some fresh air:
http://www.colbertnation.com/the-colbert-report-videos/173088/june-10-2008/the-elitist-menace-among-us
Thoughtcrime
@Roger Moore:
From BJ lexicon:
http://mediamatters.org/research/200806030004