David S. Bernstein, at the Boston Phoenix, has a helpful calendar of 2012 Willard-mania, during which “we in Massachusetts will be seeing more of him than we did when he was governor“:
JANUARY 3: IOWA CAUCUSES
After many months of acting like he wasn’t competing for the votes of the Iowa Evangelical conservatives who rejected him four years ago, Romney is now in it to win it. That change of plan has come either because A) he thinks he needs to stop Newt Gingrich from winning Iowa; B) he thinks he can win Iowa and wrap up the nomination early; or C) he thinks it would be embarrassing to lose any state to the pathetic field of candidates opposing him.
__
Tune in to see . . . whether Romney can project a clean, positive image despite his Super PAC spending millions on dirty negative ads in Iowa. If so, that will be his formula for the rest of the election cycle…
__
JANUARY 31: SUPER PAC REPORT DUE + FLORIDA PRIMARY
For reasons too complicated to get into here, the last day of January is the first time that the Romney-backing Restore Our Future “Super PAC” will disclose any of its contributors since June 30. That political-action committee, run by former Romney staffers, can take unlimited contributions— several million-dollar donors are already known.
__
It’s quite possible that, when the Restore Our Future report comes out, it will be revealed that a small number of extremely wealthy Wall Street titans have been spending fortunes to ensure Romney’s victory. That might not look so good — which might be one reason the Super PAC has maneuvered to push back its report date to January 31.
__
If the stars are aligned for Romney, he will have won that day’s Florida primary, and effectively clinched the nomination, before Restore Our Future hits “send” on its report at roughly 11:55 pm…
rlrr
Is Romney nothing more that a soulless automaton? It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
rlrr
The Year Ahead in Mitt
Or something that rhymes with Mitt…
amk
@rlrr: He is mr marie antoinette.
PeakVT
November 7 – retires to his new home near San Diego, while the GOP descends into the mother of all finger-pointing contests.
chopper
Florida clinches the primary? really?
amk
@chopper: Ask a noun, a verb and a 9-11 rudy.
rlrr
@amk:
Rudy’s brilliant strategy of putting all his eggs in Florida. How did that work out?
Remember when pundits were certain that the 2008 election was going to be Rudy vs. Hillary?
Schlemizel
@chopper:
Yes, it could be over by the end of next month. It depends who wins those first 4 contests. There will be some hangers-on after Iowa and maybe a couple that get a boost but after NH the number of actual threats will be 2 or 3 depending on how the votes go. If you really want Ol Frothy, Batshit Bachmann or sNoot you have to hope they win 2 of the first 4 (and that is not going to happen). Only Willard and Herr Doktor have national organizations and the time to develop one is too short. Even if the one true not-mitt appears in IA & NH it is going to be a struggle to jin up the machine needed to over come the disadvantage. Willard wins by default.
NASA guy: “So you win by default”
Homer: “The two sweetest words in the English Language! DE FAULT! DE FAULT!”
Veritas
The one-two knockout punch of IA-NH will give Romney the momentum needed to win SC, and with that clinched a win in FL will be inevitable. This thing could be over before Super Tuesday.
And then we get a referendum on Obambi’s failed policies. Buckle up, it will be a bumpy ride for some people on this forum.
SenyorDave
Shit like this makes me think about slitting my wrists. I never had kids of my own, but I do have stepkids, and I have a beautiful granddaughter who is 20 months old AND DOESN’T DESERVE the likes of Mitt Romney (or Gingrich or anyone connected to the GOP and most Democrats) determining the fate of the country she lives in. I pray Obama wins, but I’m not optimistic. The people in this country are too brain dead to understand that Bush and his minions (may they rot in hell forever) almost destroyed this country.
I was reading a Bill Maher book where he suggested that afew bankers be executed (he got this idea from the Chinese, who executed a couple of executives of a milk company for putting dangerous additives in their products to save money).
I think Maher’s on the right track. I think the heads of a few Goldman Sacks execs up on poles outside the NYSE might send a much-needed message.
rlrr
@Veritas:
* P L O N K *
chopper
florida’s a psychological victory more than anything since florida had it’s delegate count cut in half. if shitty mitty wins florida but tanks in iowa and SC he’s not ahead by much when february starts.
you gotta remember, this ain’t you father’s primary schedule anymore. it’s all been shuffled around and many of the states are proportioned instead of winner-take-all.
amk
Axelrod tweet
In the Republican game of Iowa whack-a-mole, Santorum benefits from being the last one to pop up before the music stops.
gbear
Anne, now that you’ve got Veritass live-trapped in a thread about Mittens, could you please take him off to another county to release him? Preferably a county with lots of coyotes. Thanks.
Schlemizel
@rlrr:
FL came later in ’08 for one thing. For another Rudy only had FL. Willard still has a chance in IA and is focusing on NH. He has the org and the money to stay in it.
Picture Santorum winning in IA – then what? He has no money, no org and made no effort in NH. Money will pour in & he will get attention (assuming he is not just another clown of the month) but it is doubtful he can cover the ground in NH unless he is dubbed the one true not-mitt and that is hard for me to imagine.
Bachmann is in better shape but has not really won hearts & minds in NH, she probably is hoping for NC. The question is if her own IA staff does not see a future can she finish high enough in IA to keep attracting money? I don’t think so.
Paul is the ‘best’ bet. He looks to be doing well enough in IA and can count on some contrarian votes in NH. He has the org & money never seems to be an issue (what is a Krugerrand trading for these days?).
Gingrich? If he had peaked now instead of a month ago he might have pulled it off. Assuming he wants to. Not as much a money issue as he has lots of wealthy friends he has helped but no org.
Perry certainly has the wingnut appeal, if he finished 1 or 2 in IA he could afford to lose NH & pray NC carries him through. But again if he finished as projected in IA there is no more money & is org is weak.
BTW – I’ll admit I know nothing about this other than what I read in the papers & on line against a background of 50+ years working as a foot soldier in campaigns. This is all guess work & will gladly encourage people with a different view to poke holes in all this balloon juice.
Schlemizel
Can we all please agree to ignore that troll? Please. It adds nothing to our community and our responses to it clog threads making it more difficult to read the rest of us who do add value.
Frankensteinbeck
I’m getting *pretty* sure Romney’s got it locked up. The deciding factor was finding out that all of the other non-Paul candidates don’t have a campaign infrastructure in place. Romney’s fighting an uphill battle against himself, but if he’s the only guy running, he’s still going to win.
Ron Paul is a joke, and always has been. He’s always leading in Iowa, then disappears. If Ron Paul won the nomination it would mean… that’s hard to even figure out, it’s so insane.
Tara the Antisocial Social Worker
Other items on Romney calendar:
February: Romney disavows everything he said in January.
March: Romney denies the existence of everything he said in February.
April: Romney obliterates everything he said in March.
Etc.
chopper
IA and NH are proportional. if mitty comes in third in IA and first in NH (and of course loses SC which is winner-take-all) he walks into FL in third place.
Hill Dweller
@Tara the Antisocial Social Worker: All while wearing skinny jeans, which he seems to think makes him look like a ‘regular guy’.
Cat Lady
There’s that 6 letter word that no one is willing to say when discussing what happens if Willard becomes the “favorite” – M-O-R-M-O-N. He’s a bishop of a satanic cult. Let the South Carolina whispering campaign begin!
dmsilev
The question is going to be how many of the notRomenys drop out after Iowa and New Hampshire. If we’re left with only the RomneyTronic 3000, Ron “Alberich” Paul, and one NotRomney, then even a marginally competent NotRomney is going to have a fair amount of staying power. If there are three of them left, the division of support will kill them and Romney probably clinches on Super Tuesday.
hildebrand
What absolutely floors me is the idea that even Santorum is getting his moment in the sun. Every single time a not-Romney has cratered, a new one rises to take his/her place – does this not scare the bejesus out of the Romney supporters? No one likes your guy! Christ on a cracker, how is it that someone running for this gig for the last few years cannot put these clowns away. Santorum? Seriously? Romney has to now deal with a Santorum surge?
I wonder how much of the Romney campaign money is being sent to Huckabee, Bush the Next, Daniels, and all of the other assorted types who decided to sit this one out.
Schlemizel
But who is ahead of him? I don’t see anyone strong enough to out do him and money will not flow to also rans. He has the smell of inevitability unless they can marshal behind one person. I don’t see the folks that are doing well in IA doing well in NH so the cash could be slow in coming in.
hildebrand
Another thought – Mitt is going to have to tab a truly obscure hack to be the VP on the ticket, as he certainly has to be mortified of being overshadowed by his own pick.
Schlemizel
@dmsilev:
Agreed, but unless there is a big surprise in IA or NH the one true not-mitt is not going to appear I don’t think. It will still be 25% Mitt & 3 10%’ers
Davis X. Machina
@Cat Lady: That South Carolina whispering campaign against Mormons will be carried out by the same people who responded so well to a stories of McCain’s adopted colored (Bangladeshi) child.
If nominating Romney is what it takes to make the White House White again, they’ll line up and vote for Romney, even if it means crawling over broken glass to do it. They’re not going to nominate someone who can’t win.
Let the word go forth from this place and time, to friend and foe alike, that these people will bear any burden, pay any price, support any friend, oppose any foe, to get that awful Negro out of the White House.
amk
@hildebrand: egg.sack.lee. I don’t remember willard ever having a ‘surge’ in the last 5 years of his running.
veritas ? still here ?
Yevgraf
@Veritas:
It’ll be awesome. We can focus on blocked legislation, blocked appointments, blocked spending, all courtesy of the Teatards and the “sane” side of the GOP that’s voting along with the tards just to avoid primary challenges.
And all while this is getting rehashed, the GOP can announce its plan to cede even more economic and political power to the 1% and the churches that have the deliberately pig-ignorant exurbanites under thrall.
Who knew that doing nothing is a plan? The magic cloud guy and the magic market will make jobs appear from nowhere. Tah-daaaaaahhh!!!
Schlemizel
@Davis X. Machina:
Let the word go forth from this place and time, to friend and foe alike, that these people will bear any burden, pay any price, support any fiend, oppose any sense, to get that awful Negro out of the White House.
edited for added accuracy
rlrr
@hildebrand:
Romney has to now deal with a Santorum surge?
I’m sure he’ll get the help to clean it up.
rlrr
Don’t these people know Romney’s father wasn’t even born in the USA and that his grandfather was a polygamist? ;)
Jo
Due to my mild dyslexia and sleepiness, when this page opened up I thought it said “The Year Ahead in Shit”… well, same thing, eh?
Frankensteinbeck
@Davis X. Machina:
You say this, but I completely disagree. They hated Clinton with an unholy passion. I met people who wore black the day after the election because they were in mourning because we would all be dead in four years, and it wasn’t a joke to those idiots. That they hate Obama virulently is an assumption already built into the system.
Romney’s… well, Mormonism is only one of his problems… doesn’t override that hate, it chips away at its importance. You don’t have to peel away more than a few percent of the truly faithful voting block who just can’t bring themselves to vote this time in order to clinch a landslide.
Will they stay home en masse? Hell, no. I’d be very surprised if 1 out of 4 fundies hated Mormonism enough that it would overcome their hate of Obama. 2 or 3 out of 100? Absolutely. And that’s all you need. Hell, Obama’s looking sweet already. Veritas likes to trumpet Romney Leads polls, but he’s got the context utterly backwards. If the GOP candidate only leads in one out of ten polls now, before the campaign even starts for real, he is screwed. This is the part of the campaign where Romney should look like he has a tidal wave behind him. Instead he’s just the only guy who might be competitive.
catclub
@Schlemizel: SOUTH Carolina, not NC.
That is all.
Benjamin Franklin
37% describe themselves as ‘moderate’.
The battle for the muddy Middle is the mushy swamp we must slog through.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/151814/Americans-Huntsman-Romney-Paul-Closest-Ideologically.aspx
Schlemizel
@catclub:
Your right – all those CSA bastions look alike to me 8-{D
Yevgraf
@rlrr:
There’s a Sullivan joke in there somewhere.
CarolDuhart2
One more thing. Romney has little ability to draw the undecideds and certainly almost no Democrats, which is why the Republicans are trying to suppress votes this time.
Davis X. Machina
@efgoldman: Romney may be toast. But I still see him as no worse than even money to win.
He’s white. He’s a guy. He wears a suit. He makes president-noises. He has an R after his name. That’s 55 million votes, right there. Ten million more and he’ll be president until January of 2021.
He’ll beat McCain’s popular vote share and EV tally even if he loses.
Ed Drone
@Tara the Antisocial Social Worker:
May: Romney disavows his June positions.
June: Romney reiterates his disavowal of his September 2007 positions.
July: Romney accidentally supports Obama positions on 90% of campaign issues.
August, September, October …
And that’s the way it is.
Ed
Schlemizel
@efgoldman:
One of the things that keep me checking other nations immigration policies is that there is a lot of anger out there. That could mean a lot of the low information morons blindly voting against every incumbent.
To the Dems that would mean a loss of the Senate, loss of the White House and a very close House, probably leaning GOP. If it is one of the not-mitts we are completely screwed, might as well learn Mandarin you are going to need it. If it is Willard we are still screwed just not as completely. If Obama remains but both chambers are in GOP hands you can count on 4 more years of the reckless destruction brought on by the GOPs desire to destroy him at all costs.
Hill Dweller
Uh oh. Romney’s son calls on Obama to release his birth certificate and grades.
Schlemizel
@Hill Dweller:
Willard sounds desperate to win over the dingbat patrol.
To add a thought to my post @ 43 – imagine the ‘thinking’ of that voter mentioned here yesterday. Voted for Obama in ’08 & now wants Paul because, “we need change”. That kind of idiot could get us all killed.
rlrr
@Hill Dweller:
I hope the Romney campaign goes full wingnut, it’ll make it more difficult for the media to paint him as a moderate.
Xenos
@Hill Dweller: I would like to see what grades at BYU Mitt got that allowed him entry into a dual degree program at Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School.
Hoodie
@Davis X. Machina: Romney is still in trouble for the R nomination, let alone the general. The MSM is fixating on a Santorum surge in IA, but he real story is that Perry is surging as well, probably because Bachmann is cratering and his newfound love for the children of rape and incest. I thought he was dead, but if he does reasonably well in IA, he’s pretty well positioned. If Romney wins NH, but not by a huge margin, it will be written off as home field advantage in an idiosyncratic state. Perry can win SC, especially if Gingrich continues to fall apart, and that will put him in the driver’s seat for Super Tuesday. Perry is still the guy that best fits the neoconfederate archetype of the Republican base. The dangerous thing about him is that he was a gaffe machine early in the campaign when few were paying attention. He (i.e., his handlers) may have learned enough to avoid similar mistakes in the future and the idiots in the village will now be more likely to give him a pass for his foot in mouth moments like they did for GWB because they’ll cynically view it as yesterday’s news. I’d much rather face Romney in the general, because of the whole multiple choice Mitt thing and the fact that the R base really doesn’t like him. While he’s had some embarrassing moments, Perry has much less of a video trail and is one of the tribe.
dmsilev
@Hill Dweller: Romney adopted Donald Trump?
Should be amusing to watch the walk back on that one. It’s a matter of faith among the conservative frothers that Obama didn’t “earn” his college degree and Harvard Law Review position, but instead was the beneficiary of affirmative action. It’s a pretty well-embedded bit of pravda, so Mitt can’t just disavow it without further pissing off his nominal base. My guess, the campaign walks back the birther part, and ignores the other half.
rlrr
@Xenos:
George W. Bush got into the Harvard Business school, so it can’t be too hard (especially when you have Bush and Walker in your name).
rlrr
@dmsilev:
And we’re to believe Romney’s father played no role getting him into Harvard…
brantl
@Veritas: Eat a bag of salted dicks, OK?
dmsilev
@rlrr: That’s different. Because it is.
Benjamin Franklin
@brantl:
His favorite meal. Please stop whetting his appetite.
Amir Khalid
@Hill Dweller:
So Mitt has a son named Matt. Are we soon to be acquainted with his brothers Mett, Mott and Mutt? (Or is the question moot?) Besides, I was under the impression that one, Obama slapped the Donald around with his long-form birth cert months ago; and two, it takes damn good grades to be made editor of the Harvard Law Review.
rlrr
@Amir Khalid:
I guess Matt’s real name is Wallard.
rlrr
it takes damn good grades to be made editor of the Harvard Law Review.
But Obama used his magic Kenyan Muslim powers to become editor of the Harvard Law Review.
amk
@Hill Dweller: What a pathetic little family. Proof that all that money didn’t buy class after all.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Davis X. Machina: Put me in DXM’s column. I can’t get inside the modern Republican mind, and it baffles me even more that anyone other than the Brotherhood of the Bains could vote for the dead-eyed, soulless, shape-shifting Mitt, but I think the number of people who will actually stay at home is pretty small, especially when that nice young man from Virginia is on the ticket. I don’t think that President Mitt is a foregone conclusion, but I think this will be a damn close race.
@Amir Khalid: I wish I could take credit for the joke about Mitt’s little known son, Mott Thehoople Romney, but it was a poster at TPM who came up with it.
burnspbesq
@Hill Dweller:
“Romney’s son calls on Obama to release his birth certificate and grades.”
As soon as your old man releases his tax returns, sonny.
Lojasmo
@Veritas:
You may want to brush up on yer book lernin’
Bambi was the prince of the forest, after all.
Schlemizel
@rlrr:
8-{D
Thats a winner!
Hill Dweller
@burnspbesq:
The spawn’s call for transparency was a bit of misdirection after a voter had just ask about his father’s tax returns.
When you’re under the slightest bit of pressure, and your first instinct is to employ a dog whistle, it’s a pretty safe bet you’re a racist.
Lojasmo
@Davis X. Machina:
Do you have a full time job cut-pasting this same shit over and over on this blog, or is it several blogs!
cckids
Whenever I read about the GOP race, I can’t help thinking about American Idol, as it gets down to the final three; as the 3rd person gets kicked off the island, their voters tend to go to the person who is most like them. Whether or not this is good for Mitt would depend on who else is left standing at the end of this clown-car demolition derby.
And yes, the comparison of this primary race to a reality show is entirely deliberate. They should have made a deal with Bravo or someone. The ratings they’d have gotten!!
TenguPhule
I will laugh so hard if Mitt fails to get nominated.
And Verywrong’s tears would be sweet indeed.
Mark S.
Ron Paul on women’s rights:
I don’t think even most of my wingnut acquaintances think that a woman should have to quit her job if her boss is pressuring her for sex. But Ron Paul knows more about liberty than any other living being. He knows that only oppression from the federal government infringes upon liberty. Coercion and repression from employers, corporations, and state and local governments actually enhances liberty.
chopper
@TenguPhule:
i think it’s gonna be the mittster, but it ain’t gonna be a walk. the primaries are set differently now, so there isn’t going to be a clear leader in delegates clinching it by the time super Tuesday comes around, or even after.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@TenguPhule: I’ve given up hope that he’ll have to eat the plate of crow in tepid shit-sauce he so richly deserves, but it will be fun to watch him squirm and pander if So Carolina and Florida break for Newt
Mike in NC
@Hill Dweller:
How long does Willard actually think this ploy will work?
Releasing one’s federal income tax records is pretty much obligatory for presidential candidates. He obviously has a lot to hide beyond paying the 15% unearned income rate he enjoys as a One Percenter/Master of the Universe. Looking forward to the chorus of reporters asking, “When will we see the tax forms”?
Will the response be more stonewalling and a sneering “Only the little people pay 35%”? That will be well received on Main Street USA.
Davis X. Machina
@Lojasmo: Everyone needs a hobby. Mine is not kidding myself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mike in NC:
I’m guessing some highly paid consultant is giving him this advice, and encountering the dead-eyed stubbornness of the Princeling grown to be Master of the Universe. Especially in the Republican primary and among the
know-nothingsindependent swing voters, being rich is just proof that you “understand the economy”. Dump it now while most people are preoccupied with the holidays and football. March and April are no time to get people talking about the tax-loopholes you exploited, much less the lead up to the convention. IMHO. YMMV.Hill Dweller
@Mike in NC: Andrea Mitchell pressed him on it earlier today, and Romneybot didn’t handle it well. He said he would ‘consider’ releasing his tax returns if he becomes President.
rlrr
@Hill Dweller:
I think he’s counting on the IOKIYAR rule protecting him…
Chyron HR
@Hill Dweller:
Did he really say “if”? Because that would be hilarious just by itself.
FlipYrWhig
@Hill Dweller: I notice that Mitt doesn’t handle ANYTHING well.
dmsilev
@FlipYrWhig: If you go back and look at Romney’s previous campaigns, he’s actually a pretty poor campaigner with a real glass jaw. It’s a real testament to the awfulness of the rest of the field that they haven’t yet managed to effectively attack him.
Hill Dweller
@Chyron HR: Yes
Mnemosyne
@dmsilev:
I don’t know if it’s a testament to that or if it’s another hint that it’s all a set-up by the big money boys and Romney is this year’s sacrificial lamb. Certainly none of his competitors seem to be trying very hard to unseat him.
Ken
@Veritas: Not really. To both your points.
Ken
@Frankensteinbeck: Let’s say that Romney does win the nomination.. who do you see as Veep wingman?
Lojasmo
@Davis X. Machina:
I don’t see a lot of folks saying Obama’s going to win a landslide. You are not making a coherent argument, but rather exhibiting some bizarre form of echolalia.