Like I said yesterday, the best thing about Newt Gingrich staying in the race is that the man is completely willing and eager to shank any member of the GOP:
Gingrich never mentioned Romney by name as he spoke to supporters after an underwhelming fourth-place finish in the caucuses, but he did take a couple swipes at the Republican presidential race’s front-runner.
“Things that became obvious in the last few weeks in Iowa is that there will be a great debate in the Republican Party before we are prepared to have a great debate with [President] Barack Obama,” Gingrich told supporters with his wife Callista standing at his side.
He set the opponents in that debate: himself — “a Reagan conservative who changed Washington in the ’80s and ’90s,” and Romney — “a Massachusetts moderate managing decay.”
Gingrich, the front-runner just weeks ago, crashed under the weight of millions of dollars of negative ads aimed at him by pro-Romney political action committees. While Gingrich said his campaign was not going to run “30-second gotchas,” he said he did reserve the right to tell the truth.
“And if the truth seems negative, that may be more a comment on his record than it is on politics,” he said. “So this is going to be a debate that begins tomorrow morning in New Hampshire, and will go on for a few months.”
When you ask yourself why Newt is going on the attack, it’s really just a matter of the scorpion and the frog- that is who Newt is. His modus operandi is to just attack, attack, attack, wreak as much destruction as possible, and hope he comes out on top. Just ask Bob Michel. And as you saw when a lot of former House members came forward and cautioned about Gingrich, this is not unknown. He thrives in chaos, in large part because he lives for it, but also because his stream of unmitigated bullshit is held to less scrutiny while everyone is diverted by the blood and guts.
Meanwhile, now is when you will see the establishment go all in for Romney:
Arizona Senator John McCain, his party’s 2008 nominee, will endorse Mitt Romney in New Hampshire tomorrow, a well-placed former McCain aide told BuzzFeed Tuesday.
McCain and Romney were bitter foes in 2008, but Romney repaired the relationship after his defeat with a season of determined campaigning for his former rival.
The endorsement will offer the Romney campaign a pivot point after the virtual tie with Senator Rick Santorum in Iowa, and a growing impression that the former governor is uniting the party behind him.
With Bachmann dropping out, and Perry with such a shitty showing, I’m guessing the wild card in all of this is the teahadists who were with those two sinking ships. Will they go to Santorum, will they go for Paul, or will they hold their nose and follow the establishment and go with Romney. If they are true to their words, and hating the establishment GOP the way they say they do, the stream of endorsements about to come out for Romney may actually hurt him. Can Perry survive Iowa and NH and make a stand in SC?
What do you all think?
*** Update ***
What David Corn said.
dmsilev
Does this new site formatting mean that you’re going all wobbly centrist on us? Someone call an exorcist; the site is possessed by the ghost of David Broder.
Gin & Tonic
The center is where elections are won. I know cause I heard it on teevee.
Judas Escargot
I
kind of
like this new
format, it lets me
make a nice little xmas
tree.
Canuckistani Tom
Centred text? I’ve heard of moving the Overton window, but this is redonkulous
ETA: And it’s fixed
No One of Consequence
I think you should take a look at the formatting…
eesh.
– NOoC
PeakVT
The centering cannot hold, can it?
ETA: Didn’t even last until hit submit.
Also, too, I think the nutjobs will go for Santorum, mostly, because they hate Mittens that much.
Aet
That face makes him look like a muppet.
dmsilev
Darn, he fixed it. Now, our first few comments are going to seem even more inane than is typical.
merl
So he’s got the endorsement of North Vietnam’s air ace, Crash McCain, big whoop.
eemom
If Gnoot drags Mitt and the rest of them down with him, it will be proof that even worthless scum serve a purpose on this Earth.
I might get religion over that.
Bmaccnm
Newt didn’t crash under the weight of millions of dollars of negative ads. Newt crashed under the weight of hiss own history. Some of us still remember the 90’s, and no amount of Newtonian bragadoccio will change the truth about Newt. The man is a self absorbed teller of grandiose tales. The recent theory of his mother’s bipolar disorder explains Newt Gingrich better than any other theory- having grown up with a mother who passed on her illness, Newt is genetically and developmentally programmed to behave this way.
No One of Consequence
Blast! Back to lurking and leaving the commentating to my obviously sharper-witted betters.
– NOoC
Elizabelle
Bachmann:
“The Party of Reagan. The Party of Lincoln.”
In that order.
slag
Definitely a true Republican.
Woodrowfan
time for the Cain comeback!
zmulls
Honestly, I think Gingrich is in for a while. Santorum goes over really well in Iowa, as it’s a conservative state to begin with, and the caucus model favors folks who are fired up and willing to come out on a cold night and stay for a few hours. No independents, and no “I’ll stop by and vote on my way home” folks.
Santorum doesn’t play in most of the country. The more people hear about his very far-right social ideas (the guy is clearly against birth control) the less they will like him. A week or two of scrutiny and he slips a bit.
Perry and Bachmann are out. Their 15-20% have to go somewhere. I do not think any of those people are going to Ron Paul. I think Santorum gets some of them but loses others. I think Gingrich gets at least half of them.
Gingrich is indeed going to show some fire, and the base loves the red meat. He will benefit.
The best thing about New Hampshire is that every candidate other than Romney can downplay it. “Of course Romney won, we all knew Romney was going to win, he was the Governor next door and all those liberal Northeast voters go for him. Want a real Republican, South Carolina and southern states on Super Tuesday?”
Romney wins NH and everyone shrugs. Gingrich cuts into Romney with fury. Santorum goes after Romney as well, because Santorum thinks he is fighting Romney for the front-runner slot. Ron Paul’s support is already plateaued. Gingrich begins to rise and the press will love that story.
I think we’re in this until Super Tuesday at least.
(Probable ticket — Romney/Santorum)
jibeaux
Paul Begala had a funny thing about how when you’re 8 votes over Man-on-Dog-Guy who lost his own state by 18 points, you really, really stink. It’s just true that Willard is profoundly unlikeable to an extent that cannot be overestimated, but it’s also true that the rest of the field is deeply flawed in their own evil snowflake ways, so I think it’s all heading towards Romney losing to Obama, but every bit of the Kubler-Ross stages is going to be traversed first before Acceptance Of Willard sets in.
Ubu Imperator
The Bachmannites will all break for Senator Man-on-Dog, while Perry’s will most likely break between Romney and Paul, with a little favoring toward the latter. The Iowa results are actually pretty representative of the GOP as a whole right now, as the top three candidates represent the religious wackloons, the soulless corporatists, and the John Birchers. It’s a big tent, all right.
Cris (without an H)
Guys! Helene Cooper is very concerned that calling Mitt Romney a flip-flopper will backfire on Obama! So please do not!
eemom
plus it was SO totally awesome sauce yesterday in that CBS interview:
bobblebot: Are you calling Mitt Romney a liar?
[delicious pause]
Gingrich: Yes.
[squeeee]
Rommie
Recess appointment incoming – now we’ll find out if the GOP will walk all that tough talk somewhere.
Linnaeus
TPTB in the Republican Party will pull out all the stops for Romney. He’s your nominee.
gogol's wife
@Cris (without an H):
God why does the New York Times pay this person a salary?
Mustang Bobby
Watching Bachmann withdraw and go completely nutso on Obamacare; wow, get over it.
At least she got her eyes spinning in the same direction.
joes527
Adds up to %15, which would be significant, given how close the “winners” were. But I think that this is looking at it all wrong.
On election day, there is no fixed size pie that simply has to be alloted by percentage. The primaries from here, and in fact the general will hinge on turnout. I don’t think that _any_ of the R hopefuls who can significantly turn out each other’s supporters. The Teahadists are not going to hold their noses en-mass and turn out for Mittens.
This of course is good news for Obama, but even better news for the Senate, which looks to be a bloodbath in any case. Anything that dampens R’s enthusiasm to turn out on election day will be a Very Good Thing (TM)
Schlemizel
I think Perry is dead meat maggots (the name of my band BTW), with no money & no friends.
Ol Frothy should stand to get some boost but he has no money & no organization in NH, he has to hope he can limp through while getting an operation up & running in Carolina & Florida. If he can hold on he could draw the not-mitts to himself. Not enough to win the nod but it would give him power at the convention.
Noot – pasta be his name! It depends on how much of his sweet sweet Tiffany’s account he wants to dump into this thing. I hope his ego is starving & he shoots the moon. If Ol Frothy falls he will pick up steam.
amk
After Iowa caucuses, conservative elites to huddle to stop Mitt Romney
eric
@gogol’s wife: because monkeys only fling poo, they can’t write it.
zmulls
Oh, and WTF is all this horse race coverage over who “Won” (by 8 votes). You don’t really get bragging rights here. It’s not winner take all, even. It’s proportional.
I bet Santorum gets the *same number of delegates* out of this that Romney does.
Kola Noscopy
So cute to watch John try to reunite the BJ asylum members after yesterday’s delightful madness. :D
Is she still gone?
Waldo
Rick Perry can’t survive being Rick Perry. He’ll continue stumbling along on the margins till the money runs out. Newt, on the other hand, is poised to re-emerge as the anti-Mitt of choice in SC. That should stave off Mitt’s coronation for a few weeks, anyway.
joes527
@gogol’s wife:
Because she is doing what her bosses are paying her to do. (hint: does not rhyme with bournalism)
EconWatcher
With Newt, there’s only one thing bigger than his ego, and that’s his love of pelf. I suspect that some of the big machers in the GOP will let him know that if he tanks Mitt’s boat, they’ll find a way to end his gravy train. And he’ll crawl back into his hole.
catclub
@zmulls: Somebody smarter than I pointed out that zero delegates were won. The Iowa delegate selection is still to take place.
But yes, all these, at least through Florida, are proportional, so no knockouts.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
The Frothy Mixture doesn’t need to play well nationwide, just in SC and by all accounts, he’ll do just fine there. As Al Giordano said “never underestimate the bigotries and prejudices” of early primary voters. And the American Taliban hates them their Mormons. They hate papists too but the particular papist they’re likely to vote for speaks their language in a way Mittens never can.
I’m most interested in how Paul continues, I think he’s the real wild card here. It’s easy to see how Mittens and the Frothy Mixture continue to split half of the primary voters, 25/25. How many of the other 50% Paul sucks off might determine who swings which direction.
It really comes down to SC and whether or not Goodhair and Newt continue after that. I expect Paul to stay in regardless.
Fed Up In Brooklyn
Does anyone really believe any of these GOP clowns has a shot in hell at winning the White House in November? Talk about an utter waste of time.
The GOP nomination process is like watching tryouts for the Washington Generals in preparation for a battle against the Harlem Globetrotters. Pointless.
catclub
@Waldo: Why do you think Perry has not already quit? He has announced going back to Texas to re-evaluate. I think that is quitting.
former ohio
Santorum got 41% of PA’s vote in ’06. Does he think he could do better now? Or is the GOP not even going to try and compete in PA this year?
Ken
Anyone else briefly flash on the Joker’s recruitment method in The Dark Knight? Three thugs, one broken pool cue.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Fed Up In Brooklyn:
No, I really don’t see it.
That being said, another 4 years for Obama if he’s saddled with either or both houses of Congress in Repup hands effectively neutralizes his presidency for at least 2 additional years. And it’s clear, has been for 30 years, that the modern Republican Party plays the long game. Shitty presidential candidates may come and go but if they can stop enacting a Democratic agenda while weakening 70 years of progressive policies, that’s pretty good in their book. It’s a great way of filling time until the next Dubya gets in, then they can start dismantling in earnest.
eric
@Fed Up In Brooklyn: this is ALL about 2012 turnout and the Senate. Lots of things can happen to shatter the expected dynamics (terrorism, oil embargos, wars, etc) but assuming a general status quo and allowing for bumps, Obama is the likely winner. People forget how great he is campaigning and how his team is great with free local media. So, dems are hoping for depressed GOP enthusiasm or a knuckle-dragger that will take express positions on social issues that GOP women cannot abide by for them and their daughters. So far, so good.
pseudonymous in nc
Let’s assume that gNoot isn’t looking for a Veep spot, and that the establishment wouldn’t let Mittens give him it anyway. (And electorally, there’s no value added to the ticket.)
So, nothing to lose, potentially something to gain if he can either sink SS Mittanic right now or come out as the wingnut Cassandra after November.
(Actually, I think gNoot might prefer to cripple Willard over trying to knock him out now.)
Mike Goetz
I have no idea why the Republicans are going to go with McCain redux, minus the war heroism and, well, basic humanity. But that is what is going to happen, Romney will lose badly, and the conservative base may well then find the first person in a Brooks Brothers suit and eat him alive.
I’m beginning to think Romney could ruin things for a Christie, Ryan, or Daniels in 2016. Huntsman, of course, is already dead, never to be seen again after New Hampshire. He fucked his career badly.
Judas Escargot
@jibeaux:
This, pretty much.
I wish some nice rich white person on the teevee or the NYT/WaPo OpEd page would kindly explain to me how “Obama is in over his head”, but that some joker* who can’t even get 25% of the vote in milky-whitebread-christian Iowa with unlimited funds is supposed to be a better choice.
(*) and yes, this description would fit any one of Romney/Paul/Santorum.
Anoniminous
I think Romney has to show he can convince people outside of his 25% core support to vote for him.
The Moar You Know
Republicans are creatures of the chain of command. Romney will of course be the candidate, the money men have decreed it so. I’ve said that this would be the case all along and nothing I’ve seen in the last 24 hours has changed that.
It’s our good fortune that he is Mormon and therefore unelectable.
Zifnab
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
Maybe I’m just a dumb atheist, but do evangelicals really keep careful track of that stuff? Rick Santorum walks like a Southern Baptist and talks like a Southern Baptist. Dude wants to ban the pill, for Christ’s Sake (pun!) Is anyone really going to balk at pulling the lever for this milky white pretty boy NotRomney long enough to check his specific religious affiliation?
It’s not like they can all run off to Gingrich. He’s Catholic too.
jayackroyd
I think there’s gonna, as in Iowa, a whole lotta staying home.
me
@joes527: I bet the Teabaggers do vote for Romney. They may talk big but in the end they’re Republicans and will do what they are told.
ChrisNYC
I think I’ve figured out Romney’s real problem as a pol.
He’s accustomed to being top dog by winning over the powerful. He doesn’t get the power of voters — it’s like they’re an afterthought. His whole campaign is sort of about avoiding them, negating them, amassing power to overwhelm their dislike for him. Last night, he closed with a “thanks so much everyone” that had all the tinniness of the insincere “thanks” that a boss gives to a faceless, nameless mass of workers just to be polite. Other than Mass, he never had to win regular people — he had to convince the board — the regular people had no choice but to go along. There’s something super offensive about it and it’s gonna kill him in the GE.
The vote is a fantastic thing.
Joey Maloney
@Fed Up In Brooklyn:
It depends on how many Democratic voters the R-held state houses can disenfranchise. That’s where the real action is. As you say, this is just a sideshow.
Waldo
@catclub: Hadn’t heard that. Thanks. Just responding to the OP — Cole evidently thinks Perry could stage some sort of comeback.
The Ancient Randonneur
I stopped by a friends house this morning and she had the Today Show’s Matt Lauer interviewing Trump blasting. Hoo boy! Trump might still run! According to him, millions of Americans have contacted him and asked him to run.
Please FSM, I beggin’ ya! Make it so.
The last time he put his toe in the water, Obama pwned his ass. Just after walking up to the microphones to start a press conference in NH, Trump is preempted by the networks so Obama can announce he’s releasing his long form birth certificate. A few weeks later while Trump is breaking up a cat fight between Star Jones and Ne Ne he is once again preempted by the President who announced American Forces killed Osama bin Laden.
Just as a point of interest I met six Mormon missionaries serving in NH who are also actively working for Romney’s campaign. They are all in their 20’s doing the missionary thing while on break from college for a year.
Don’t be surprised if Huntsman has a better showing than expected. He has been in NH without much of a break since he announced. I saw him speak at a library in West Lebanon, NH about a month ago. He attracted a crowd of very respectable looking white folks who were duly concerned about the direction of our country. At least I think it was a Huntsman campaign event. Either that or Huntsman stumbled into a Dartmouth College meeting for faculty and upper level administrators.
I also want to thank the Iowa GOP for Spreading Santorum.
eric
@me: i dont think it will be about doing what you are told, but being driven by a visceral hatred of a certain near. It is that simple for the Baggers. The GOP problem is getting the GOP women of DuPage County, Illinois (for example) to pull the lever for GOP nominee.
I will bet dollars to donuts that we get a birth control question at the next debate, especially if Santorum is smart and decides to go all in and brings it up himself to hear Romney hedge on a cultural issue.
Satanicpanic
Winning Iowa is not going to get Romney out of the uncanny valley
Mike Goetz
@ChrisNYC:
Man, this is smart. Right on.
Elizabelle
@Mustang Bobby:
Memo to Michelle Bachmann:
I want my eyelashes back.
Elsie the Cow
catclub
@Waldo: But it looks like I am wrong, based on a USA Toady story and a tweet about on to SC, next phase of marathon.
zmulls
Perry has announced he’s going to SC. That makes sense. He can do “better” in SC and show “momentum.” That’s his only play. He can’t compete in NH.
I figure he has bet that SC is his last shot (and being a Texan, doesn’t want to go down after the first contest.)
wrb
@Fed Up In Brooklyn:
I think that if Mitt wants the presidency enough to cover himself with Santorum, they might win. Plutocrats/bidniss more competent than academic/community organizer+ fundies sould make for a potent, if ugly package.
I found myself wondering if Paul + fundie would almost be viable, with Paul pulling a lot of young idiots from Obama.
Valdivia
@ChrisNYC:
I totally agree. great insight. I saw on TPM that this morning Romney said that vetoing the Dream Act would not turn off hispanics. Huh? I think this stems exactly from what you said, totally ignorance of how voters are courted, how real people react.
Elizabelle
@zmulls:
Maybe Perry decided to let Bachmann have the limelight of being today’s quitter, and he’ll soak up his due after NH or SC?
Redshift
@Zifnab:
Hard to say. Remember, until they decided to make common cause over abortion, the Catholic Church was still commonly equated to the Whore of Babylon in fundamentalist pulpits (and still is in some.) It was in the Chick tract about “cults.”
It’s really about enthusiasm and turnout, not absolute yes/no. I bet if Santorum had been Baptist instead of Catholic (and all the other weird shifts of the year been the same), he would have won Iowa easily.
Waldo
@Satanicpanic: Heh. That’s why he’ll choose this guy as a running mate. You know, to humanize the ticket.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Zifnab:
I honestly believe that to be the case. Okay, the following story is anecdotal but it reflects your standard, fundie, Midwestern, white guy mindset.
When the last pope visited St Louis, this was close to ten years ago, a crapload of people here were driving two hours to see him (I live in this bizarre section of central Misery that was settled by seemingly every German Catholic in Europe in the 1840s). Another guy, the standard fundie, Midwestern white dude from…you guessed it, Iowa, came up to me of all people and asked “what do you make of this visit by that pope?”
Not “the pope”. *That* pope. He repeated that reference to the alleged vicar of the christian god on earth repeatedly over the next 5 minutes of a bizarre conversation. He simply didn’t get it.
You can cruze around teh internetzezzz and see tons of references to Southern fundies and their hatred of the catholic church….of 30 years ago. Since then as the/that pope of the moment has made pronouncements that if they came from the local Six Flags Over Jesus megachurch pulpit would be hailed with many “hosanas”, the fundies have found much in common in the social wars with conservative ‘Merkin catholics such as the Frothy Mixture.
They haven’t come around to the Mormons and yes, I have devout work aquaitances who in unguarded moments think of Mormons as servants of the anti-christ much like their parents would have thought of catholics in the same way.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Joey Maloney:
Good point. As I’ve said before, the Repups aren’t stupid, they see how their policies and the demographics of this country are against them. The best way to thwart that is dominate locally and thus have a great shot at preventing undesirables from voting. They’ll get at least 2 more decades of political relevance just from the number of state gubmints they currently control.
DanielX
If that face (wattles and all) is what I can expect more of, I may have to swear off television altogether. Okay, except for watching Tebow get beaten like a drum on Sunday. But seriously, folks…it will be amusing to watch Newt try to drown Romney in bullshit, then throw him an anvil as he goes down for the third time.
After all, what does he have to lose? He makes a shit ton of money on the lecture circuit and from other parts of Gingrich Inc., so it’s not like he needs a federal pension or anything*. The Republican establishment can’t hate him any worse than they already do, and – shocking, I know – if there is anything in which Newt delights it’s hurling hate bombs at his opponents. He gets to fuck up the political careers, such as they are, of Mittens and Mr. Come-from-behind (sorry, it just, ah, slipped out), both of whom he holds in contempt**. He regards himself as what the Germans would call a world-historical figure to whom the rules don’t apply, and has said so in so many words. (Sort of frightening, when you consider other people the Germans have regarded as world-historical figures.)
Since the rules don’t apply to him, he’s free to indulge himself in doing whatever furthers his aims, especially because this is his last shot – he’ll be too old in 2016. Even if he gets beaten in the general election he gets to take what he regards as a well-deserved two by four to his Republican opponents and the party establishment for attempting to thwart his destiny, which for him is a worthy goal all by itself. There’s no major downside for Newt aside from subjecting himself to the rigors of the campaign trail. it’s not he gives a fiddler’s fuck about charges of hypocrisy or heaping dirt on Republican opponents, let alone Democrats. (The sonofabitch ought to have a big scarlet H embroidered on every piece of clothing he owns.)
And, and…he just might win. Odder things have happened; at this point in 2008 nobody thought Obama had a prayer either, and for all his political skills he’s not as dirty a fighter as Newt. Indeed, it would hard to identify another pol in America who is, and given Newt’s love for opposition demolition, well…it could happen, unlikely though it may seem. At which point Australia will start looking pretty good…
Note: I shudder at the thought of how many bad Santorum puns lie in the immediate future, considering the number I’ve seen already.
*He’s got a pension already due to his time in Congress but it’s chicken feed to what he makes currently, although it might do to keep Callista’s hair helmet burnished.
**Actually, Newt holds just about everybody in contempt, but that’s an issue for a forensic psychologist.
Mike in NC
@ChrisNYC:
Behold the amazing power of the Romneybot v2012!
My relatives and their neighbors in NH refer to him as “That Rich Mormon from Massachusetts”. He’s pretty unpopular there, and Ron Paul’s anti-tax message will resonate with flinty Granite Staters. Willard will manage to eke out a win and then get creamed by Newt in SC.
Then the circus of freaks moves to Florida, which Dave Barry has always treasured for its own unique brand of crazy.
cmorenc
@zmulls:
This is extremely true if Santorum somehow won the GOP nomination and had to face the general electorate in a head-to-head two person race against Obama. The result would be an electoral wipeout of epic proportions, especially among women voters.
However, in GOP primaries, the electorate is vastly more heavily skewed toward social/evangelical conservatives (including women among them) who are sympathetically in-tune with Santorum’s social views, even if they don’t exactly share every particular. His extreme social views are more asset than handicap to doing respectably well within the more limited electorate of GOP primary voters, who tend to skew even more conservatively than the party as a whole.
Even though Santorum probably still won’t be able to pull in enough votes from within this skewed electorate to win the nomination, nevertheless he may have enough support among them to stubbornly prolong the hotly contested portion of the nomination process. More importantly, Santorum’s continued competitive presence will force Romney himself to very publicly tack hard right for far longer than is constructive to enable him to make the timely, convincing move back toward the middle of the electorate that will be essential for him to have a realistic chance of defeating Obama.
Between Gingrich’s well-financed vengeful spite and Santorum’s relentless pressure from the hard social right, Romney may suffer a prolonged battering that will leave him in a damaged position with the general electorate, even before he gets to the phase of direct competition against Obama.
Jennifer
Cole, you either read my comment over at TBogg’s about a week ago regarding Gingrich as the scorpion in the scorpion and dog (as I recalled it) story, or you are channelling me.
jl
Nice pic of Gingrich. Google ‘blobfish’ and ‘naked mole rat’. Obesify the naked mole rat and hybridize. You’ll see what I mean.
DanielX
Oh, snap! Look out, Mittens, BOHICA!
Davis X. Machina
@eric: I concur. None of this religious stuff will matter, not in November, not even the LDS membership of the GOP nominee.
The God-botherers may have stayed home in ’96, instead of voting for Dole, but Clinton was, in the last analysis, white. This time, tere’s a non-theoretical, actually-existing black man in the White House.
chopper
@Anoniminous:
that 25% isn’t even really core support. maybe 12 is, the rest is people who couldn’t give a shit about him but merely think he’s the best shot at beating obama. only about 12 percent of goopers actually like mittens.
the enthusiasm gap here is striking. 7/8ths of the party are at best ambivalent about the dude, and at worst hate his guts.
ChrisNYC
If you happen to see her on tv today, get a load of Callista’s sour puss. She has had JUST about enough of this bullshit campaigning business. I predict she’ll be holding “rallies” in Antigua or St. Lucia before too long.
EconWatcher
@chopper:
Definitely reminds me of John Kerry. (And yeah, I donated more than I could afford and tried really hard to get him elected. But I just couldn’t stand him. Met him once in person–complete empty suit.)
Citizen_X
Not to invoke his appearance or anything, but anyone notice how a certain pro-Mittens troll (name starts with a v) is missing this morning? Surprising, given his previous messages of “3RD PLACE IN IOWA IS STILL A WIN FOR ROMNEY! SUCKS FOR YOUR OBAMBI, LIBTARDS!” Maybe, just maybe, his confidence was all a front, eh?
pseudonymous in nc
@zmulls:
Perry was polling around 5-7% in SC, with gNoot ahead, so I’m not sure where his upside is coming from, unless he’s got some pretty good dirty tricksters hired there.
Hungry Joe
Romney, with a tepid 25% of the rolling-boil GOP primary electorate behind him, can’t get the nomination. Impossible to imagine. At the same time, it’s impossible to imagine an around-the-bend-bonkers like Paul, a bloviating creep like Newt, a fundie weirdo like Santorum, a box-o’-rocks dolt like Perry, or a hard-right billionaire Romney-lite bore like Huntsman getting the nomination, either. So in the end, it will be … no one. The GOP will nominate no one. At least, that’s the only scenario that doesn’t make me say, “Him? No way.”
handsmile
I’d like to concur with and expand upon the comments of comrade scott (#40) and eric (#41) above.
Barring a domestic catastrophe and with one major stipulation, I believe President Obama will be reelected in November. (That stipulation is if Obama’s opponent is any one of the current GOP presidential candidates. If anything, the result in Iowa reinforces my conviction that the 2012 GOP nominee will be someone other than those now running.)
In my view, the Democratic Party retaining Senate majority will be the real battle and greatest challenge this year. Twenty-three seats now held by Democrats (I’m including Lieberman here) are up for re-election. There are only 10 Republican-held seats to be contested; of these, only Brown (MA) and Heller (NV) seem possible Democratic pick-ups.
We have seen and are suffering through the consequences of the GOP controlling only one house of Congress. If Republicans gain Senate majority, they will effectively control two of the three branches of the US government. Because the real prize of the 2012 national election cycle is the Supreme Court.
it is all but certain that Ruth Bader Ginsburg will retire within the next four years; there is reasonable speculation that Stephen Breyer or Anthony Kennedy may do so as well. With a GOP majority in the Senate, assisted by a number of conservative Democrats, I firmly believe that only jurists as radical as John Yoo or Janice Rogers Brown (both racial minorities BTW) would receive Senate approval. Essentially they could dictate President Obama’s nominations to the Supreme Court. (His struggles over Richard Cordray’s appointment to head the CFPB offers some idea of what we may expect.)
Once again, it’s the “long game” for the GOP. Win the House and most State Houses in 2010; gain the Senate (and the Supreme Court) in 2012. Come 2016, with even more voting restrictions and Citizens United-approved campaign financing now fully rampant, a Republican presidential victory and the establishment of an impregnable regime all but assured.
That’s my dark vision.
Roger the Cabin Boy
Newt looks just like Popeye does just before he opens a can of spinach and kicks Bluto’s ass. Substitute “Willard” for “Bluto”.
DFH no.6
@Fed Up In Brooklyn:
Unfortunately, yes, I believe one of these clowns (anyway) has more than a chance in hell of winning the White House in November – Romney.
Any of the others in the car would most likely be beaten pretty badly by Obama, which is why I’m rooting for Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul right now (I don’t think Perry can make a comeback, even in SC).
But remember the economy?
Romney will most likely be Obama’s opponent in the general, and the main media narrative will be all about Willard’s “moderateness” and especially about his alleged business acumen.
Just what we need in these divisive and trying times. Count on it.
Republicans (and Republican voters who register as “independents”) will vote pretty much in lockstep for whoever the R candidate is, which puts the floor of votes for that candidate in the mid-40s percent.
The election will hinge on turnout (why 2010 was such a Democratic disaster) and on swing voters (actual independents and conservadems). Swing voters would mostly run the other way from any of the NotMitts (just too crazy, mean, and off-putting).
But anyone who believes Obama “has it in the bag” against Romney is not paying enough attention to how our media works and how our wacky electorate actually votes (and also, too, the economy).
Still think Obama wins, but it won’t be easy.
WaterGirl
Obama on any minute speaking in Ohio and announcing Richard Cordray’s appointment. On MSNBC, at least.
pseudonymous in nc
@Hungry Joe:
But somebody has to, just as somebody had to win the AFC West.
Hungry Joe
@pseudonymous in nc:
Somebody won the AFC West?
Obviously the GOP is going to nominate one of these loons. I just find it interesting that I’m unable to make it seem real. (“Him? No way.”)
WaterGirl
Obama is in fine form this morning! He seems happy and energized, and the crowd is loving him!
01010101
Bachmann played it too soft.
Had she gone gonzo, supported the legalization of meth, carved a swazi or cross in her forehard (..Krastika!), talked shit about n***ers she might have had a chance.
trollhattan
@pseudonymous in nc:
I wonder whether Meg Whitman’s interested? Still ample time to buy herself some votes.
It’ll be a heavily damaged [no, “battle-hardened!”] Mittens accepting the nomination because there’s nobody else and has never been. Paulbots can keep dreaming their Randian dreams for awhile longer, but seem unlikely to unloose their moth-ridden wallets for him.
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
I hope to see more of this look of dismay and disappointment on Gingrich’s pasty face. Call me mean, but a couple more turd sandwiches for this self-satsified slob would be great. Of course, he’ll then just scuttle off to enjoy his many millions of dollars and massage his own ego with another book, lecture tour, or assignation to another Republican “think tank” (now there’s an oxymoron!).
Nutella
Nobody’s really running for president except Romney and Paul. They are the only ones who are even on the ballot for the Virginia primary. All the others were too lazy or incompetent to get the paperwork done there.
So the rest of them are fighting for 1) spite, 2) grift, and 3) the VP spot. Hopefully they’ll do that with sufficient vigor to depress the many Republican voters who were going to hold their noses and vote for Mitt so that enough of them stay home (and away from the Senate races).
Triassic Sands
Surely, this will be Newt’s last stand. Will his defeat leave him so bitter that he will endorse Obama? Would he rather see the president re-elected than have one of his GOP opponents win?
I don’t really see that happening, but it would be funny if it did.
Note: If Obama wants to win, he might be better off without a Gingrich endorsement. The guy is toxic.
Note: In any future Gingrich bio-pic, I recommend that his role be played by Eric Cartman — in full victim mode. The similarities are stunning.
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
You will respect my authori-tah!
MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson
Finally, a purpose for Newt Gingrich that might actually be good for America. Those Romneylans will bitterly regret infringing on the Newtral Zone!
SFAW
Unpossible.
4jkb4ia
If you are supporting Bachmann or Perry for religious reasons, you go with Santorum.
If you are supporting Perry because of his resume, you go with Romney or Gingrich.
I guess Perry can make a stand in SC because he will have the money. But he will have to appeal to voters who have been paying absolutely no attention until now.
4jkb4ia
@zmulls:
He did–Santorum, Romney, and Paul all get 7. That was Larry Sabato.
JoeShabadoo
I don’t think this is anything like the scorion and the frog.
Gingrich is in the position where his only way to get power is to go negative. Romney and the Republican party stopped helping him ages ago so he loses absolutely nothing by poisoning the process. Romney even attacked Gingrich earlier which I’m sure really pissed off Newt. This isn’t the kind of guy to let something slide.
Pat In Massachusetts
For the record, I feel rather lucky being stuck in the
decaying state of Massachusetts during these tough economic times. At least Massachusetts isn’t wasting the state’s money by executing prisoners who are more than likely innocent – but had the misfortune of possessing the wrong skin color.
A word of advice to Newt. I don’t think it’s wise to go to New Hampshire bashing Massachusetts seeing that the two states border each other and there may be a couple of MASSHOLES in the audience ready to call him out on his claims.
One can hope.
SFAW
Yeah, what are the chances that there are any “independents” like THAT, huh?
harlana
awesome, awesome, awesome
Mitt is flaming out all over the place (he is actually projection-flaming out when you think how bad his sound bytes are going to play during the GE) and Gingrich knows he’s not going to win the nomination so he has nothing to lose by doing what he does best, grisly ankle-biting. With all that super pac money. Satisfies his ego and keeps those speaking fees pouring in afterwards, and doing most of our work for us.
He really hates Mitt more than Democrats? Equal Opportunity Bastard!