If you read that Weigel post and do the math, 91,000 Republicans voted last night, versus 102,000 in 2008. The raw vote count was slightly higher this year, but that’s because Democrats and Independents decided to vote in the caucus, either due to Paulism or lack of anything better to do on a cold winter night. And probably the least electable candidate in the recent history of the Republican Party, a man who will almost certainly be an asterisk in the coming primaries, came within 8 votes (or $2,800, to use a standard unit more comprehensible to the Romney campaign) of unseating the presumptive nominee. If Santorum had squeezed out a win, we might have to face the realization that Iowa doesn’t mean shit. Instead, we’ll be talking about whether 8 votes mean anything.
So, if there’s one set of participants breathing a sigh of relief other than Mitt, Ann and the kids, it’s the DC political-media complex. A Santorum win would have put expense account steak dinners at 801 Grand in Des Moines in grave danger, and it would also have meant that some new replacement for the Iowa circus would lead to a re-organization of the firmly established pecking order. Instead, the status quo is intact and the ritual is preserved, as aptly described by Jay Rosen:
My suggestion is that it would be more profitable to treat the Iowa Caucuses as a “ritual,” rather than an informational or news event. There may be a modicum of information emerging from the caucuses themselves; they may tell us something–a little bit–about the relative standing of Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann. But caucus coverage is more profitably viewed as a campaign ritual, in which the tribe of political reporters (like Chuck Todd or Mark Halperin) and pundits (like E.J. Dionne or David Brooks) andpollsters (like, say, Frank Luntz) and operatives (or former operatives like James Carville or Donna Brazille) claim interpretive rights over the election of 2012.
Every four years they gather in Iowa to affirm that their way of seeing is the way to see a presidential campaign. They say they are bringing you news of what happened in Iowa. But what they’re really doing is maintaining their little society across yet another election cycle. That is what rituals do. They preserve community over time. […]
One more thing: at least we won’t have to hear anything more about Ron Paul for a while. All the stars were aligned for a Paul win–there were plenty of crossover voters, he had a pile of cash to spend, and he got lots of media of attention–yet he’s almost 4,000 votes behind Santorum and Romney.
Elizabelle
It’s time to close the door on Iowa as anything but a quirk of cranks AND a boon for oldstyle political journalists on expense accounts.
Iowa signifies little, and is inherently undemocratic.
Regional primaries. In time for 2016.
ETA: pick a region, any region to start in 2016, and let the regional groupings take their turn as first in the nation over a series of elections.
amk
paulmentum hitting the road-rock was the best moment of the day in the absence of willard’s loss.
Zifnab25
We’ll see. Ron Paul’s libertarian creds will buy him lots of votes in New Hampshire. He might not win, but he’ll pick up another 20% or so and continue to split the pool. If there is a path to a brokered convention, it runs through Paul.
Social Outcast
Paul’s strongest appeal is to the young and stupid. Iowa’s republican base is white-haired and mainstream conservative -i.e., people who want agricultural benefits for white farmers, low taxes on private property, and bombs dropped on the world’s brown people. They aren’t going to get behind a guy who is talking about how America’s adventures abroad cause terrorism. Paul performed about as well as he could in such a place.
amk
Did the recent troll-fest crash the site ? Having a hard time posting for past 2 days.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
I think the outcome is about as good as we could have hoped for. Romney didn’t gain anything. A tie with Santorum is not a win. Gingrich and Paul would like nothing better than to bleed Romney dry and FOX News’ support isn’t coming online anytime soon.
The longer it goes on with Santorum, Gingrich and Paul around the more to the right Romney will have to tack and he’s already approaching the point of no return.
It’s going to be kind of sad to see Punch-drunk Perry and LaBachmann go home but Santorum will make up for their missing drool all by his little self.
Schlemizel
My guess would be that Paul will play this as a win for two reasons. (According to his spin) He does not do well with the evangelicals. And The media hampered him by ignoring him early but now he will get the attention he deserves.
A second in NH could leave him as the only non-mitt to go forward with anything like a chance of doing well in all the other events.
It had not occurred to me before but what would a Willard/Paul ticket do? (and please don’t tell me they hate each other, this is politics. It would be hard to find greater animosity than existed between LBJ/JFK or RWR/GHWB. This is power and nothing comes before power)
EconWatcher
Say what you will, this was a pretty big win for Romney, even if by the tiniest of margins. This was a socially conservative state that went for Huckabee last time. It gives Romney some momentum for NH which, with a big win, will start to restore some of that aura of inevitability he needs so desperately to avoid scrutiny.
I hate to agree with the sometime troll Veritas on anything, but I do believe this result suggests that Romney may get the nom wrapped up fairly quickly.
bemused
Listening to those 6 lunatics speak at the end of the caucus last night was the stuff of nightmares.
jon
I’m shocked I didn’t hear this story before. Seems Santorum has more problems than links to rapes in Pacific islands and The Google. But since all is forgiven with Republican Money Juice, Rick can describe his slightly hypocritical stance on his almost signature issue (other than the Pink Menace) on his wife’s failings as a human being or something equally obtusely correctly… Conservative and Principled.
El Cid
I think it’s somewhat interesting — somewhat, I emphasize — that Paul received by far the largest plurality (48%) of the youngest category of vote (17-29) and, likely a related statistic, of those with a family income below $30K.
It’s less surprising, however, to see Romney’s dominance of those with a family income over $100K.
[Actually, it’s interesting that 43% of those saying they opposed the Tea Party voted for Romney, while as noted Santorum dominated the 64% who said they supported it.]
However, no one seemed to dominate among the zero percent of black voters polled.
MSNBC exit polls here.
Linda Featheringill
@Schlemizel:
Politics makes strange bedfellows.
But if I’m to continue with cliches, let me say Romney/Paul would certainly be an odd couple, not to mention a couple of odd ducks.
sherparick
One thing to think about is that 79% of the Republican voters (and likely more given Independents and Democrats crossing over to vote for Paul’s anti-war views), really dig the pro-war, pro-authoritarian, lock-them-up-and throw-away-the-key), gay-bashing, women should not be having sex, and objectively pro-torture candidates. So much for small Government. Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, the leading three candidates, have all pretty much promised a war with Iran the day after the inaugaration, and perhaps a reoccupation of Iraq to boot, and I am sure Egypt will not be far from the list if a Moslem Brotherhood government forms. This i the modern Republican Party, this is the alternative to Obama.
EconWatcher
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford:
Can’t agree with you. A good result for us would have been Romney in third place or worse, behind at least Paul and Santorum. That would have helped cement the theme that voters want anyone but Romney.
This wasn’t a good result. A win is a win. No one will remember the margin after the next few primaries. They’ll just say that Romney is consistently winning them.
El Cid
@EconWatcher: I know. In a sane world, 8 votes’ margin would be a tie in all but an actual election itself.
But then, George W. Bush Jr. captured the Presidency by only one vote. (Bush V Gore.)
Linda Featheringill
@El Cid:
According to the Census Bureau, non-Hispanic white folks make up 88.7% of Iowans.
Is that 10%+ enough to influence an election?
peach flavored shampoo
Why did Cain get 58 votes? I mean, there’s low-information voters, clueless voters, and then there’s peeps how caucused for a guy who dropped out a month ago. WTF?
Cacti
Romney 2012: Consistently liked by 25% of Republicans!
VICTORY!
MattF
It somewhat raises the probability of Romney on the Republican Presidential ticket, but that was the probable case anyhow, truth to tell. I do wonder if Noot calling Romney a liar (I should say, Noot noting that Romney is a liar) will have a longer-term effect. Certainly brings the, ah, dishonesty issue into focus.
EconWatcher
@MattF:
My guess is, Newt will now get knee-capped even worse than he already has been by the GOP establishment. Romney is now even more clearly the presumptive nominee, and as Michael Corleone said, never go against the family.
Schlemizel
Just out of curiosity (as in please don’t make me actually have to read the stories) how did you come up with that 91,000 figure? Did you just deduct the entire Paul vote & claim those were Dems/Indys? or did people actually go to the GOP event & identify themselves as D or I?
JPL
@peach flavored shampoo: No preference got 135 votes. The explanation must be that some just go to socialize. I read that since the caucus votes are not binding there was no need for a recount. It sounds as though the entire meet-up is for socialization.
eemom
@EconWatcher:
but the very fact that Santorum came as close as he did is absolute proof of that.
I dunno — as folks have been oohing and aahing over Santorum’s, um, “surge” this past week, it has seemed painfully obvious to me that it’s just the latest chapter in the NotMitt saga.
butler
@peach flavored shampoo: Eh, Mickey Mouse is usually good for a few hundred write in votes every election year. That 58 folks were either so die hard for Cain (the “victim” of that naughty liberal media, remember) or clueless about the whole process isn’t really a surprise.
Cacti
@Schlemizel:
Possibly ensure that the GOP ticket got 0% of the minority vote for the first time in history.
Josie
Here is an interesting observation by Josh Marshall at TPM.
I wonder if Romney has “awakened a sleeping giant.”
amk
@El Cid:
….
civicyouth.org/iowa-caucus-youth-turnout-4-overwhelmingly-supported-paul-provided-candidate-13-of-to…
So the old coot did nothing earth-shaking y’day, despite the man-love from the librul pundtwits like maddow, hayes and the coles’ bff.
ET
This was a blurb in today’s WaPo about Santorum voters:
Sadly whether Santorum could actually do the job of president isn’t mentioned.
BTW, does winning by 8 votes really count as winning?
Schlemizel
@Cacti:
They are well on their way to that anyway 8-{D
But if Willard thinks he can’t win the wingnuts anyway the ‘hail mary pass’ could be to try and peel indys and libertarian Dems from Obama. Particularly if Paul can continue to draw in the 20’s
JPL
@EconWatcher: Although I agree with you, Benen thinks the smaller field hurts Romney. Washington Monthly
Schlemizel
@ET:
Thats because he wouldn’t have to do the job – God would be there with him to do it. Its the sort of thinking that led to the Children’s Crusade. If we just get people pure of heart God will allow the to walk on water to the Holy Land and smite an actual trained army.
Amir Khalid
@peach flavored shampoo:
Let’s see … 58 votes divided by $0.00 in media advertising buys, and zero days spent on in-state campaigning … Wow, Herman Cain is looking like a really effective candidate! he ought to get right back in the race! ;-)
beltane
@ET: Say what you will about Santorum but, unlike Perry he is fully equipped to delve past the surface of issues and probe the inner workings of things.
Linda Featheringill
@Josie:
Oooh, that would be fun to watch.
J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford
@EconWatcher:
I don’t care if you agree with me, you have no idea what you’re talking about.
Romney lost last night and he’s going to have a miserable weekend heading into New Hampshire.
The Sheriff Is A Ni-
I’m keeping an eye on Governor Goodhair and where he puts his support (and not insignificant Texas oil man money and pull).
xian
I suspect bachmann tanked more because her base won’t vote for a woman than because she is such a doofus.
rlrr
@Josie:
Newt whining about negative campaigning – the very definition of schadenfreude…
rlrr
@The Sheriff Is A Ni-:
Perry may now start gunning for the VP spot, and Romney may need to go full wingnut when picking a running mate.
daveNYC
@J.A.F. Rusty Shackleford: Who pissed in your Cheerios?
Whether or not Mitt won or lost last night will depend on what story the next primaries tell. Depending on what narritive looks good, he’ll either have started winning in Iowa and kept it going through NH and SC, or he’ll have tied with a surging whoever and will have struggled ever since.
Actual votes and numbers aren’t nearly as important as a good story.
Josie
@Linda Featheringill: Right? I might actually watch the next debate, just to see that.
rlrr
@ET:
In a real election, there would be a recount…
Jerzy Russian
@ET: A Christian family that does not like a presidential candidate because he is antiwar? Would Jesus Christ himself be able to win the Republican nomination?
Morbo
What is this, your first day on the internet?
Jerzy Russian
@xian:
Indeed, that quote ET provided at comment #28 confirms that this was the case with at least one couple.
Chris
@EconWatcher:
I agree. My thought when I read the results was “if he can win Iowa, he’s got the nomination pretty much wrapped up.”
Cacti
@rlrr:
And preferably a Hispanic wingnut since he currently polls at 23% of the Hispanic vote.
Amir Khalid
@Jerzy Russian:
Well, there’s Christians, and then there’s Christians like the Schreivers.
Cacti
@Chris:
I’m thinking that way as well.
I think Iowa showed that he still has a glass jaw with the wingnut base, but his competition is a collection of has-beens and never-weres that can’t really make him pay for it.
Newt will end up looking like a deranged terrier trying to nip Willard’s ankle to death. Santorum will likely be a one hit wonder, and there aren’t enough stoners and racists to propel Ron Paul to victory.
amk
@Morbo: LOL.
Chris
@Jerzy Russian:
If Jesus had come back to America as late as fifty years ago, the man would have been lynched or assassinated as a dangerous subversive, a revolutionary, a soshulist, an America-hater, a sympathizer with our enemies, a DFH and a serious threat to the moral well-being of this Judeo-Christian nation. If he came back today, he might not die but damn if he wouldn’t be cursed and rejected on those same charges.
(I think someone wrote a play once in which Jesus came back to Earth in Spain a few centuries ago and was executed by the Inquisition. I have no problems at all believing it).
Ken
@peach flavored shampoo:
Frankly I’m surprised Palin didn’t get any votes. If nothing else she should have picked up a few from the sunk costs fallacy, considering there were people who quit their jobs, sold their homes, and moved to Iowa to help her campaign.
The Moar You Know
Overlooked in all this is the stone-cold inescapable fact that Mitt Romney cannot win the presidency of the United States.
Cacti
I wonder how many Ron Paul supporters were too stoned to remember to vote?
Cacti
@The Moar You Know:
Since he’s now come out and stated explicitly that he’d veto the DREAM Act, he’s sealed his fate with Hispanic voters, and he still hasn’t won over southern evangelicals.
He’s going to take a drubbing in the general unless something changes dramatically for him.
geg6
@EconWatcher:
First, when you say a win is a win, it is usually because that win was so ugly that you should have actually lost. That is not how winning narratives are written.
Second, are you paying attention to the media? You and Romney are the only ones touting this result as a good one. You can’t spend four years and millions of dollars running for an office and never find yourself able to cross the 25% mark and that’s exactly where Romney stands, not just in Iowa but nationwide. Not only that, but in a year when there should be GOP enthusiasm enough to bring more voters to the booth (or caucus room), they essentially have turnout the same as 2008, a year they knew they would lose (or the semi-sane ones did anyway). Hell, large numbers of those caucus goers were actually Dems and Indys, whether they were Paulites or ratfuckers.
Mitt looks weaker today with a win than he did yesterday with nothing at all.
Barry
“One more thing: at least we won’t have to hear anything more about Ron Paul for a while.”
It doesn’t matter how he polls – didn’t he get only 10% of Iowa last time? He has a small but loud core of supporters, and will always be around. I expect that old age will be the only thing which keeps him from running in 2020.
Judas Escargot
@Amir Khalid:
“God” died a long time ago.
Folks like the Schreivers are a cargo cult.
Ian
Mitt Romney and his miraculous Tebow-like victory over his enemies.
I hope we win by 8 votes next week versus the Steelers.
different-church-lady
I see what you did there, even if you don’t.
Robert Green
the thing that is being preserved here is not just the expense account dinner, but the whole damn financial and power-nexus edifice upon which these douchebags live. if there wasn’t ritual like this they couldn’t be
raping altar boysin close enough touch with power to get their kids into a good private school. the point being that rituals are ways of protecting groups from having to actually justify their power. it works for religion, it works for media!Trakker
Iowa. At first it was entertaining, then it became frightening, and toward the end I wanted the damn state out of my union. What a waste of reporter’s time: interviewing smug, comfortable white people who hate sharing the country with “others.” And now on to New Hampshire, another state that is about as representative of the real America as the island of Manhattan.
Please people, if you want to occupy something, start with Fox News.
eemom
I can’t believe you people who think that a win by 8 votes is a decisive victory for Romney.
With all due respect, what planet do you inhabit?
FlipYrWhig
I couldn’t stand the sound of any of their voices or the look of any of their faces, so I didn’t watch any of the candidate speeches in their entirety. What I saw from Ron Paul was something about Keynesian vs. Austrian economics. How much does he even talk about the “civil liberties” stuff he’s been so praised about in the liberal blogosphere? And if he talks about it, does he feature it, does he run on it?