In an example of just how terribly corrupt Republican party officials are, the official, certified results of the Iowa caucus are finally in and Rick Santorum actually won by 23 votes. The Iowa GOP has decided to call it a tie instead. Josh Marshall:
The rationale for calling this a tie, according to the Des Moines Register, which has the story as an exclusive, is that 8 precincts’ numbers are lost permanently and will never be certified. So in practice it’s a tie, too close to call, etc. That of course probably applies to pretty much all recount type elections — Bush v Gore, maybe Franken v. Coleman, etc. The vagueries of the process itself is too imprecise in some sense to tell you who ‘won’ in some Platonic (the other sense of the word) sense. But in normal elections where the people holding it aren’t deeply invested in not letting one guy win we have a name for that kind of situation — Rick Santorum won.
Of course, it’s unlikely to do Santorum much good at this point. And he probably just was never a good enough, or viable enough, candidate to have truly shifted his fortunes even if it had come out on caucus night. But it’s worth speculating how the news would have affected Romney’s momentum. A win is a win, as the state GOP of Iowa seems to have a hard time now accepting. And even though it was razor close, Romney came out of Iowa with a win. And after a rout in New Hampshire he had two ‘wins’. And together those shifted where the race was pretty decisively by mid-January, finally forcing a lot of Republicans with Mitt-commitment issues to get on board.
In other words, the call in Iowa then made Mitt all but inevitable now. It’ll be interesting to see how the Republicans react to this on the road. If Mitt wins Saturday, it’s over. But would he have done worse if Santorum had been rightfully declared the winner in Iowa? The Iowa GOP is saying that several precincts lost their votes so there’s no way to know if Santorum’s 23 vote lead is really true:
Results from eight precincts are missing — any of which could hold an advantage for Mitt Romney — and will never be recovered and certified, Republican Party of Iowa officials told The Des Moines Register on Wednesday.
We’ll never know. Republicans aren’t terribly interested in facts, just results. Remember that the next time they play the ACORN/UNION THUGS/BLACK PANTHERS!!!!11!!one! card and say Democrats are cheaters.
[UPDATE] To clarify, 1) I’m all for a GOP primary process that is as long and painful for the GOP as possible (for them, but admittedly that sucks for all the rest of us too) and 2) Can you imagine the howling if this happened at a Democratic party caucus?
Triassic Sands
No wonder Republicans are so worried about voter fraud.
harlana
we knew about this weeks ago and everybody was just supposed to accept it, why is it just coming to light now? hmm
also, i blame caucuses, just because it pisses me off that Iowans don’t vote like normal people.
Josie
Results are missing?!? What kind of an explanation is that? Where is the accountability? I hope we make sure they don’t get their hands on any other ballots going forward.
Egg Berry
@Josie: If there were any kind of accountability, they’d lose their place as first.
harlana
@Josie & Triassic Sands: the irony, it never stops burning, it’s like the eternal flame of the republican party
harlana
in the beginning, i would have thought somebody like Santorum would make an awesome nominee, but now, Mitt has become a symbol of the completely detached 1% – so it’s all falling into place quiet nicely.
Cassidy
Republicans always seem to misplace votes. We need to pass some laws.
Lojasmo
Fuck that, Z. Franken won fair and square. Anybody who spent as much time as I did watching the recount proceedings would know that.
FridayNext
People’s exhibit 1,342 why Iowa should not have such a hallowed and influential place in the primary election schedule.
Elizabelle
How dishonest.
How much play will this get on the network news tonight?
Schlemizel
“In one sense, you’re both winners! In another, more accurate sense, Barney is the real winner”
– NASA official to Homer Simpson
pk
How come being 8 votes ahead makes Romney a winner, but Santorum leading by 23 votes makes it a tie?
Alex S.
Banana republic, here we come…
And I do think that an official Santorum victory might have changed something. Maybe a 2nd place for Romney would have weakened the inevitability and electability arguments, maybe Huntsman would have received a few more votes in NH as a consequence, at Romney’s cost. Romney’s victory might have been smaller and his momentum going into the South Carolina contest would have been smaller. If he wins SC it’s probably over, especially if both Santorum and Gingrich continue. If the trends hold, Romney wins SC by just a few percentage points. A slightly different narrative would have swayed quite a few votes, especially with this fickle electorate.
Glenda
@FridayNext: As an Iowan, I have to say that this definitely proves your point. I don’t know that we have any thing else much to bring people to the state, but this is just ridiculous.
Auldblackjack
This is will used as proof for the need of stricter control surrounding elections. “If even the Honest Real Americans of Iowa …”
kdaug
@Alex S.:
Bah.
Perry lost to Bill White after a
http://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Harris-County-officials-scramble-after-voting-1695734.php
Elizabelle
Here’s the Des Moines register story on the vote count.
http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2012/01/19/register-exclusive-2012-gop-caucus-count-unresolved/
What a mess.
I hope Iowa never gets to be first in the nation again.
You’ll see from the DMR story that vote counts have waffled in previous years.
Caucuses are unrepresentative. Time for them to GO.
Josie
I just heard Gregory on Morning Joe say “I realize Iowa was something of a tie.” Poor Santorum – he is just not the anointed one.
Keith G
As ugly as it is, gop insiders are just being political insiders. The missing establishment that so many people have been talking about has found a way to flex some muscle. It’s what they do. Nate Silver mentioned indices that give Romney a slight edge over Obama. Tne institutional gop wants to win
Omnes Omnibus
@kdaug: There is corruption, and then there is incompetence. I am not sure which comes into play in Iowa; probably both.
MariedeGournay
Odd feeling, being a bit peeved on Santorum and Republican voters’ behalf. I mean, if you’re not going to count the actual votes, what is the point of the caucus? Iowa is held aloft as some sort of bastion of retail politics, where the politicians really have to meet the voters. Santorum actually took the time to do that and his ‘win’ reflects that effort. Negating his ‘win’ negates that effort and thus negates the supposed populist specialness of Iowa caucuses. If was Santorum (shiver)or an Iowa voter, I’d be pissed.
dave l
Surely there’s a TPM intern over there who could be editing the boss’s stuff:
“The vagueries [sp] of the process itself is [sic] too imprecise…”
amk
Typical rethug tactic, engage in what you falsely accuse the opposition of doing. Of course, lil ricky isn’t ‘man’ enough to raise a stink about it.
gnomedad
I forget (or never knew) — is there actually something to win here, besides the title of “guy who got the most votes”?
Amir Khalid
@dave l:
The boss is too big to have his raw copy subjected to editing.
Wag
Some votes are more equal than others.
MikeBoyScout
Well, there is a candidate in the SC race who was prescient about all this:
cmorenc
@Glenda:
Iowa has the unique distinction of having a ski resort in a depression rather than on a mountain: the slopes at “Sundown Mountain” near Dubuque, Iowa are actually on the banks of the valley cut by a stream into the surrounding prairie. SKI IOWA! 26″-50″ base, season pass just $285! If only people spending $1100 on season passes at Alta or Snowbird knew about this, they could save huge bucks and not have to go all the way to Salt Lake City!
priscianusjr
I look at it like this: It’s just another Republican screwup. Romney & his supporters can say he won, true, but everyone else can point out that he didn’t — and will point it out, from now until November. Just another nail in the coffin.
Lojasmo
@cmorenc:
We have some of these in southeastern MN. Karst topography FTW!
gnomedad
‘Tis but a scratch.
Elie
I think that Santorum ought to sue the Iowa Republicans. Wouldnt that be pretty?
rikryah
nobody believed Willard won. 8 voted outta nowhere?
uh huh
kay
@Elizabelle:
They are, but they’re also small d democratic. Theoretically, the underfunded underdog can win with a lot of work and good organization.
I DO think this mess matters, BTW. I think it matters a lot to the people who showed up and invested time and energy. They’re the (potential or actual) ground-level activists in the GOP, and the GOP just told them that effort doesn’t mean anything.
I think there’s going to be a lot of ill will and anger. It doesn’t make a difference in the grand scheme of things, but does it matter to those individuals? Sure it does. This was an upset. They pulled it off. They should have gotten the win.
Gin & Tonic
@cmorenc:
Is that 26-50″ base, or 26-50″ vertical?
kay
Form E is what they submit with the vote totals. What does this even mean?
The forms “never existed”? So people in 8 precincts completely wasted their time.
Elizabelle
@kay:
I have problems with the fact that people who cannot physically be at the caucus site for the two hour window are not represented. Their vote counts as much as someone in Rhode Island.
If you have to be at work, or have a sick child, or cannot get out in bad weather/have a transportation breakdown: your vote is gone.
Lihtox
@kdaug: You mean Bill White lost to Perry, right? Don’t pin the suggestion of corruption on the wrong person now.
MBunge
“In an example of just how terribly corrupt Republican party officials”
It wasn’t corruption but a thirst for centralized authority. Individual caucus sites used to publically announce their results and the AP and other news agencies would have stringers at every caucus to get those numbers. That essentially meant there was a double-check system in place where both the parties and the media counted the votes and figured out who won.
This time around the Iowa GOP decided that no caucus would be allowed to announce their own official numbers. They had to send their results to GOP headquarters in Des Moines and all results would only be announced from there. Well, that and that alone is what opened the door for this sort of fiasco.
Mike
kay
@Elizabelle:
Right, I see that, but caucuses leave an opening for a really committed upset.
Look at what happened here. Mitt Romney ran this wildly expensive campaign at 30,000 feet, where he analyzed what he thought were his top tier opponents and knocked them out with negative ads. That’s money.
The Santorum people pushed back, insurgents, if you will, and they didn’t have the resources he had, but they did have X amount of enthusiastic votes. They got their people out. That’s work. It’s a way for people to beat money, by replacing money with time and effort expended. Theoretically. That could happen. I think it’s particularly relevant with a candidate like Romney because he’s “winning” by knocking people out with negative ads.
I hate to close off a way in. There has to be a way to beat money with work. That’s so much harder outside a caucus.
kay
@Elizabelle:
Romney (I have been told) has a giant expensive data-driven ground organization too, in addition to his massive pile of secret money for negative ads, so what the hell happened there?
Why did he have so few committed voters that this come-from-behind person beat him?
MBunge
@kay: “Why did he have so few committed voters that this come-from-behind person beat him?”
You may not have noticed, but Romney really, really, really, really sucks as a candidate.
Mike
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@MBunge:
This election is really like GW Bush split into pieces; Perry is the dumb, drugged frat boy Bush, while Mittens is the corporate over entitled blue blood Bush.
It’s almost an episode of the Star Trek.
Elizabelle
@kay:
Interesting. That holds for a caucus, but not a primary? (May be the case. I honestly don’t know.)
I am seriously concerned about Citizens United money trumping committed boots on the ground this year in a few states. We will have to see …
kay
@MBunge:
I have noticed. I was running around thinking “it’s going to be really close, because Mitt Romney is a normal human being, at the very least” and then I finally started actually listening to him and watching him.
He’s just a horribly unappealing person. I think he has a very professional campaign, and tons of outside money, but THEY seem to be succeeding, not HIM. I guess the question is if organization and money can carry him in the general, because I see those two things as propping him up.
Joel
@cmorenc: When I lived out in Colorado, you could get a Breckenridge, Keystone, A-Basin “buddy pass” for a shade under $200 (CO residents only). At 100 days, that was $2/day for skiing.
FWIW, I’m with Kay here.
kay
@Elizabelle:
Well, I think it does, because a caucus is smaller and less broadly inclusive (your problem with it) but it’s a fair question. I think a caucus at the outset can keep it competitive, and give the insurgent a chance to get to the giant primaries.
There’s this big debate right now on state court judges. Should they be elected or appointed? The process is corrupted by huge amounts of money, so the “solution” to that is to appoint, but states that appoint select from a pool of big firm lawyers or government lawyers. So, is there any value to keeping the door open a crack to an insurgent long shot who doesn’t come out of either of those pools, by holding elections? Could happen. A populist-uprising judge could beat money or (perceived) prestige. Probably won’t happen, but might.
I don’t know, but I hate to close the door. What if the finance system gets so bad we need that way in?
The Other Chuck
Iowa is not a winner-take-all state. Much as I’d love to see a bare-knuckles fight inside the Republican party, they’re not going to the mats over one delegate.
Elizabelle
@kay:
Very good point.
the dude
@cmorenc:
You can go to Iowa … I’m heading to Alta later today, to celebrate Frothy’s victory.
RalfW
The solution is of course…
Voter ID!
Oh, wait. These fvcking a-holes think all elections that result in Democrats winning are fraudulent, because when they run their own elections, fraud is the process, not the risk.
Republican officials shouldn’t have a license to own a dog, much less drive or run a unit of government. Lordy.
RalfW
@cmorenc:
Hey, now.
I snowboarded Sundown Mountain about 10 years ago. It was a fine midwestern experience. And by that I mean downhill runs that last 25-30 seconds.
Actually it was a kinda cute little area, well run and I had a decent time blowing off steam for 2 hours at the end of the day on a work trip.
Sure, its not Vail, but they don’t charge $105 a day to pull you up the hill, either.
Now pardon me while I check the forecast – it’s snowing in Summit County/Vail valley, and I head there Feb 8…
Seamus
@RalfW:
I agree, and I should know!