Norm Ornstetin writes that outside groups are outspending candidates 2-1 in the Republican primary so far.
I don’t think that the ratio will be anything like that in the general election, because the campaigns themselves will spend much more money. Also too, there are fewer persuadable voters in a general, so the ads probably make less difference anyway.
Here’s a thought: maybe the biggest effect of Citizens United will be to ensure continued top-down establishment control of the Republican party, at least in terms of winning primaries. I wonder how grassroots Tea Party types feel about this.
I’d like to try to get in touch with conservative bloggers about this. Here’s what I’m thinking of asking.
What is your take on Citizens United? Apologies if you’ve addressed it before, but I know that (1) a lot of conservatives supported the decision at the time and (2) a lot of conservatives don’t like Romney and feel the Republican establishment is forcing him down their throats. Given that the forcing is taking place via SuperPACs (to a large extent), do you see any kind of backlash against Citizens United among conservatives?
Who would be some good people to ask? And if you’re a conservative blogger who reads this blog (I doubt there are many of you who do, but you never know), let me know in the comments or via email. I’ll happily link to any responses as well, even if it’s from people I never agree with.
wrb
If Newt hadn’t gotten that fluke billionaire’s donation and the banksters had just bought it for Romney I think the outrage would be fierce.
However Newt’s luck has partially obscured would would have been a neon display of their future, and dissipated the reaction.
Mark S.
If Romney loses the nomination, it will be taken as proof that money can’t buy elections. If Romney wins the nomination, conservatives will be too focused on defeating the Kenyan communist to worry about it, and will certainly not mind the millions of outside money used to further that cause.
Besides, there are more important issues, like repealing the 17th Amendment, to worry about.
Yutsano
@Mark S.:
The Fourteenth, Sixteenth, and Nineteenth Amendments. Also. Too.
Xecky Gilchrist
Grassroots tea party types?
bleh
Wow, gotta say I respect your interest and respectful outreach, but …
“… backlash against Citizens United among conservatives”? How many US citizens — let alone the notoriously ill-informed Republican “base” — even know what Citizens United is? And if your question were explained to them — or even to the putatively better-informed Republican blogosphere, how likely do you think it is that you would get any reply except “gummint bad, freedom good,” or “stop trying to destroy the free-enterprise system,” or “better than Barack Obama Fascist socialism”?
And even if the base were solidly against it, do you think the Roberts Court — all of whose Republican members are solid corporate Made Men — would care in the slightest? If anyone wonders whether the Republican Establishment thinks the Tea Party is a bunch of useful idiots, one need look no further than the Court.
Alas, it’s doubly a fool’s errand, I fear.
Samara Morgan
why not ax the LoOGies?
like you trolled them before.
ummm…..are you gunna troll the teabaggers AngryDougJ?
ax my old frenemy Allahpundit if you want a truthful answer.
The Dangerman
Kinda OT, but did y’all see the picture released via Twitter that showed Mitt and wife in what appeared to be a pay laundramat? Anybody buying they so their own clothes?
Samara Morgan
go to HotAir and Proteinwisdom, pilgrim.
EconWatcher
Slightly OT, but how does Ornstein keep his job at AEI? He always seems like an eminently reasonable guy. IIRC, he’s even friends with Al Franken.
You’d think the organization that canned Frum for ideological deviation wouldn’t have any continuing use for Ornstein. He must have protectors that Frum didn’t have.
Going even more OT, I’m starting to believe, cautiously, that Frum’s conversion to a reasonable guy may be for real.
True, his history is unbelievably awful; the man not so long ago co-authored a book with Richard fricking Perle called “An End to Evil,” which essentially called for endless adventures of the Iraq kind. And unlike Cole and other real converts, he’s never really said he’s sorry.
But I was surprised that he recently admitted the Iraq War was, in retrospect, a mistake. The public is currently evenly divided on that question, as hard as it is to believe, so he really didn’t have to go there.
The man may actually be rethinking the neocon way. Hope so. He’s pretty smart.
craigie
I’m not sure your basic premise – that there are some thoughtful conservatarians you could ask, and who would give you a reasoned answer – holds.
Samara Morgan
@EconWatcher: dude….Frum got shitcanned because he wasn’t bringin’ any moola in.
its all about de la’rgent with those guys.
Hewer of Wood, Drawer of Water
@Yutsano: I’m pretty sure they’d like to get rid of the 15th amendment also too
General Stuck
I think that is true, for this election. The first POTUS one under CU. It can only go downhill from there as evil wizards will be conjuring more into the future, new ways to channel unlimited money to
insideoutside groups. Right now they are limited by the capacity of teevee stations to air so many ads. And there is a lot of money out there, a shameful amount, that shameful people will be willing to pony up whatever amount is needed to win power, that they can control. At some point, it will become such a circus of new campaign methodology, we won’t have to run away to join it.And remember, the key provision of CU was to equate money with 1st amendment speech rights. And it is only a matter of time till the right court case reaches the current SCOTUS to apply that standard to every single instance of campaign contributions . Up to and including donations to the candidates themselves.
Samara Morgan
@Samara Morgan:
and redstate and the daily caller.
The Dangerman
Hey, where’s the edit button? FYWP!!
Here’s the Romney photo “doing his laundry”:
http://www.mediaite.com/online/caption-contest-mitt-romney-does-his-own-laundry-edition/
lankyloo
How about OTB and Conor Friedersdorf?
Chuck Butcher
“marflegarblegobbledygook”
See now, that wasn’t all that difficult, was it?
Villago Delenda Est
You’re making a tremendous assumption here, Doug, that these hindbrain dominated asswipes can think these things through.
I’ll be pleasantly surprised if they do entertain your question, it may take them some time to process it.
chrismealy
If I understand Corey Robin right, Tea Party types love hierarchy and authority. They like being ruled by their betters.
Mark S.
I, for one, want to know what B.O. Bill thinks of this issue.
Raven
Try to run
Try to hide
CT Voter
I guess I question the implicit premise that conservative bloggers and the TPers adhere to any principle other than making sure the dark one in the WH doesn’t get re-elected. So if CU helps Romney, who cares whether Romney wasn’t the favorite of the Tea Partiers?
Villago Delenda Est
@chrismealy:
They’re natural serfs. They’re unworthy of the freedoms that so many have fought, bled, and died for.
To say I loathe them is an understatement.
Samara Morgan
@Villago Delenda Est: i think he should just troll them, like he did the LoOGies.
pretend hes sincere, ya kno?
ax Isqueef, hes a conservative.
Anne Laurie
Why not Little Green Footballs? Charles Johnson is a recent defector, and it seems like his people have a pretty good appreciation of the authoritarian worldview.
Samara Morgan
Pardon….that should have been ax YOUR HOMESLICE Isqueef, because hes a conservative.
Yutsano
@The Dangerman: Is it just me and my innate cynicism or does that look massively staged to anyone else?
Chris T.
@General Stuck:
Ah, but how long until the next logical step, when SCOTUS rules that one dollar equals one vote?
(not entirely kidding, just wish I was.)
Samara Morgan
@Anne Laurie: Charles is Not A Conservative, Old JAFI.
Redshift
@The Dangerman: It’s too small for a laundromat; it’s a hotel laundry room. Nice and private, easy to stage a “regular guy” photo without anyone seeing whether you’re actually doing the work.
The Dangerman
@Yutsano:
My first thought was “Dukakis and Tank”. Given Mitt’s outlook in SC, perhaps Tank is aprpos.
David Koch
SC Exit Poll: Newt 41, Mittens 26.
It’s a wipe out.
harlana
did anybody see the clip of Nikki Haley saying “President Obama” instead of “President Romney” several times! I want that clip, bad!
Villago Delenda Est
@David Koch:
/cue up the Ventures
Yup, it’s an unmitigated slaughter.
Perhaps FSM DOES love us? He’s going to give us Noot as the nominee?
Well, that’s the media spin. Whether it actually matters in the delegate count is far from certian.
BTW, that disgusting little gnome Daniels is making noises about offering himself as a brokered convention solution.
Tonybrown74
@The Dangerman:
Who the hell wears a white, button up shirt TUCKED into his jeans when dong laundry??
Villago Delenda Est
@Tonybrown74:
A totally unauthentic “everyman”?
MikeJ
Whatever happened to our neighborhood troll who told us Romney had it in the bag because of all caps unlimited money? I wonder if he’s seen the South Carolina polls and how he feels about the unlimited money being spent against Mitt.
David Koch
Multiple indigenous sources now telling me heavy turnout for Newt.
Mittens heading for humiliating night.
Egg Berry
@David Koch:
There is a large native American presence in South Carolina?
butler
@Egg Berry: Not a large as it once was.
David Koch
Too. Fucking. Funny.
Halperin says Newt victory is good news for Romney. Says defeat will lead to turn around in Mitten’s campaign style.
Tonybrown74
@Villago Delenda Est:
I just don’t understand …
Did no one on Mitt’s team look at that photo before releasing? or at least told him to put on a sweatshirt? Or actually us a regular box (or bottle) of detergent, as opposed to the little sample/travel size box?
This is the man that we are supposed to be afraid of in the general election?
IM
@EconWatcher:
Ornstein is very useful to AEI. Every time someone points out that AEI is no longer a think tank but a propaganda mill full of the most fanatic neocons they can say: No, look: respected moderate Ornstein!
So this white Raven is probably the last thing differentiating AEI and heritage.
What I don’t understand is why Ornstein isn’t just switching to e. g. Brookings. They can’t pay him that much, after all.
4tehlulz
@David Koch: [citation needed]
butler
Not sure I agree with this. Even if we look only at potential swing voters there has to be a least as many as in the one party primaries in small states we have had so far.
Another thing to consider is that right now all the super PAC benefactors are fighting each other. Once an actual nominee emerges, I would expect somewhat of a Voltron effect as they all focus on Obama.
feebog
@ Tonybrown74:
Are you kidding? The only shirts approved for the Romneytron3000 are white or white with blue stripes dress shirts. Have you seen him in any thing else this entire campaign?
Egg Berry
@David Koch: Was it Halperin who said Good news for John McCain? or was that another village idiot?
IM
@David Koch:
Halperin never disappoints.
Shawn in ShowMe
If Sarah Palin announced her candidacy today, she could win this thing in a walk. Remember all this talk about how Moosey had no intentions of running because of the work she would have to do in the primary? This way she wouldn’t have to.
Cat Lady
@David Koch:
Fix’t it for him.
AA+ Bonds
Except Romney is about to lose South Carolina, Doug, which is the biggest possible fuck up for the Romney campaign, and their entire drive in that state was through huge spending through Super PACs
butler
I was just thinking how we were overdue for another flip flop from him.
MikeJ
@Egg Berry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jO2dScuNnDI
beltane
@David Koch: I have a question: If we are dealing with a subset of the population that is insane, does ~27% of that population amount to some sort of Sanity Factor?
Palli
@EconWatcher: Remember his equivocating and rationalizing during the nov-dec 1999 debacle? Please, he is not so fair-minded as you think-status quo all the way-whatever the status quo is.
dmsilev
@David Koch:
Wow, I guess Romney really *is* the heir to John McCain.
Palli
@Chris T.: It could nver be one dollar- too low a denomination.
Raven
@IM: da fuck you talkin bout?
Hill Dweller
@harlana: Charlie Pierce was actually at the rally, and wrote a highly entertaining report.
A taste: Nikki Haley brought her 34 percent approval rating out for another spin on Willard’s behalf, too, but her real problem was that the English language beat her two out of three falls. “What’s the gut on the ground feeling out there?” she asked the crowd.
Governor Haley also managed to call Romney “President Obama” at least once. I think his gut could be found on the ground.
Tonybrown74
@feebog:
True.
But that picture was released in order to show Mitt as an average middle class everyday man, no?
It is so blatantly staged that I cannot believe that any of his handlers would think that it was a good idea …
Unless they are all out of touch, which is quite possible.
NCSteve
@David Koch: Do you ever imagine what it would be like to get paid vast sums for being wrong about everything every time you open your piehole has-been?
Halperin seems like such a smug, self-important little brown streak who thinks he’s just the smartest, most savvy cool kid on campus, but what if it’s all an act? What if he realizes his gig is being wrong about everything because that’s what satisfies his constituency (the handful of tittering D.C. courtiers who still give a shit what he thinks) and sets out to do it deliberately?
And are the other cool kids in the Gang of 500 in on the gag and pay him because they think there are people out in the sticks who read him and care what he says, or do they really buy it themselves?
dmsilev
@Tonybrown74: No kidding. I’m pretty sure that any serious Presidential candidate has far too busy a schedule to do their own laundry, particularly on the morning of an important primary. What, is he going to sit around for the next hour and a half playing Angry Birds while he waits for the spin cycle and the dryer?
rikyrah
as I’ve been watching the GOP Clown car, one thing became clear as the SUPERPAC money began to flood Iowa…
if they can prove that SuperPac Money can make a difference, a huge difference, then that will negate the importance of Iowa and NH being ‘ retail politicking’ states.
I will forever believe The Minstrel Cain was the tryout Citizens United Candidate. he was never a REAL candidate – he was a bought and paid for Koch Brothers’ Stooge, and their experiment.
eemom
I do believe this is your first Doors. Yes?
David Koch
Exit Poll data show Newt winning among South Carolina voters in open marriages
Amir Khalid
Could an endorsement from the deeply unpopular Governor Nikki Haley have cost Mitt votes instead of winning them for him?
Egg Berry
when do the results start being announced?
wrb
@eemom:
I picture a wild-eyed Willard, hair mussed, one side of shirt untucked, in his hotel room tonight singing another song from the album:
Brachiator
@Amir Khalid:
I thought that Haley was well liked. What happened?
@Egg Berry:
There’s this: CBS News will release full exit poll data when the polls close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern
Linda Featheringill
@Redshift: #30
You’re right. It is too small for a laundromat.
Amir Khalid
@Brachiator:
See Hill Dweller’s Charles Pierce quote #59. Her approval has been going steadily downhill since inauguration and is now in the mid thirties.
Linda Featheringill
@Egg Berry:
TPM has a thingy up to show running totals. Probably won’t be activated until the polls close, of course.
dmsilev
@Egg Berry:
Polls close at 7 Eastern. Usually takes the better part of an hour to get an appreciable chunk of the returns.
WereBear (itouch)
I’ll believe Romney is Jes’ Folks when I see him doing the cat litter.
And yes, clearly a hotel laundry room. Where’s the chairs with duct tape at the seams? The wheeled carts? The TV permanently set in Jerry Springer?
That’s a laundromat!
elftx
@dmsilev: at 62.
O PHOTO SHOP PLEASE !!!!
Chuck Butcher
@WereBear (itouch):
Someone with no tan whatever will get paid to fix the laundry before he needs to wear it.
Brachiator
@dmsilev:
The results and the exit polls will be interesting. Early CBS news report on exit polls says that 60 per cent of the GOP primary voters described themselves as white evangelicals.
Tonybrown74
Wow. They currently concern=trolling the shit out of a supporter of Newt on MSNBC right now.
Mike in NC
@Brachiator:
Does not bode well for a Mormon bishop. Might as well have had a pentagram tattooed on his big forehead,
As for Nikki Haley, she’s basically a congenital liar in the Romney mold. Administration is loaded with campaign contributors and other unqualified hacks. Very little business in the state house is conducted using public phones and email. Her husband has two state jobs as a public employee and an officer in the SC National Guard. And the list goes on…
j
Send it to the RNC, and both of the Kock brothers.
Brachiator
@Mike in NC:
Yeah. I found an article noting that she has alienated supporters, especially among the Tea Party People. And there was stuff like this:
Endorsing Romney over Newt or someone else more palatable to Tea Party People apparently has not helped.
Brachiator
Unfortunate headline du jour:
In South Carolina, Santorum counts on a second surge
That’s just so wrong.
Brachiator
ABC news is projecting a Newt win, based on exit polls.
Angry DougJ
@eemom:
I’m gonna love you til the stars fall from the sky…
mclaren
Whoops.
Now that Newtie just won the South Carolina primary, might we want to rethink that prediction a wee bit…?
Mak
Fundamentally disagree with this:
. . . because I fully expect the entire month of October to be devoted to an unprecedented non-stop barrage of swift-boat style attacks on the President, not only because SuperPacs now allow campaigns to say all the slimy shit that the campaigns want to say but can’t, but also because there are dozens of mbillionaires in every state who can now anonymously throw a few bucks toward a vanity investment – attack ads – that could pay off handsomely and, even if they don’t succeed, will provide endless amusement to the sponsors, all for the price of another boat or a couple years’ worth of polo pony upkeep. It’s a win-win!
priscianusjr
bob h
I’ve always thought that Citizens had its origins in the five Republican Supreme Court politicians’ dismay over Obama’s fundraising haul in 2008. They resolved, perhaps after some Federalist Society encounters with Republican officials, to do what they could to alter the imbalance.
fuckwit
I’ve sworn off politics, after many years of swearing AT it, and after a wasted evening seeing what I’ve been missing, I’ll leave you with this:
Larry Lessig gave a talk in which he pointed out the latest polls show that the proportion of Americans who have even a tiny bit of faith in our government is between 9% and 11%, depending on which poll.
That’s a level that is probably BELOW the level of faith that people living in Soviet Union had in their government in, like 1986 or so.
The system has already collapsed. We are living in its dead, hollowed-out carcass.
I can’t cheer the demise of this collapsed system, however, after seeing what replaced the Soviet Union– a mafia regime.
What will replace the former USA? It does not look good.