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Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Bark louder, little dog.

Boeing: repeatedly making the case for high speed rail.

The revolution will be supervised.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

At some point, the ability to learn is a factor of character, not IQ.

“Perhaps I should have considered other options.” (head-desk)

Do we throw up our hands or do we roll up our sleeves? (hint, door #2)

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Giving up is unforgivable.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2012 / Newt Wins

Newt Wins

by | 180 Comments

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They are all announcing that Newt won, which I knew yesterday because I read 538.

I guess this answers my question the other day if there is any way Romney could lose. I’m thinking Newt’s momentum is from his willingness to find dirty and hard, and wingnuts love that. It doesn’t matter if the attacks are accurate, they just like blood and respect viciousness.

Which makes me wonder, if he wins the general, are we going to do 2008 all over again, this time fighting the way wingnuts wanted to, with Rev. Wright and birtherism and the whole bit?

Also, Borowitz is awesome:

Stung by defeat in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is considering a bold strategy to reboot his Presidential campaign: engaging in a high-profile extramarital affair.

The thrice married adulterer has a real shot at being the nominee of the family values party. So awesome. I blame the gays.

Reader Interactions

180Comments

  3. 3.

    General Stuck

    Which makes me wonder, if he wins the general, are we going to do 2008 all over again, this time fighting the way wingnuts wanted to, with Rev. Wright and birtherism and the whole bit?

    I hope you meant that if Newt wins the nom for the GE, cause if he wins the general I’m boarding my canoe and paddling south.

  4. 4.

    The Dangerman

    Romney’s 1040 trumped Romney’s 3; he’s going to HAVE to release his tax returns and take the hit before Florida.

  7. 7.

    Quarks

    You know, I realize that Romney would give almost any political party a sense of desperation — but THIS much desperation? Gingrich? Are you kidding me?

  9. 9.

    Mr Stagger Lee

    I will repeat my post in the last thread.

    I wonder if this eventually sets the stage for a brokered convention and Jeb Bush becomes the nominee

  10. 10.

    lamh35

    Wait, wait. Gingrich beat Romney among women by 6%

    does candidates’ religious beliefs matter a great deal only 9% supported Romney…that’s dead last. Religious beliefs somewhat matter Romney come ind 2nd behind Gingrich. Religious beliefs not matter at all, Romney wins.

    That people is what ya can call Romney’s “Mormon problem”

    Wow, Newt even beat Romney among MARRIED WOMEN!!!!!!

    Chuck Todd actually made a good point for once. Unlike Romney and Santorum…Newt has NOT gotten any real establishment or even big conservative endorsements and in SC, Newt either beat Romney by a lot in every county, but even in moderate counties that were won by John McCain, Newt came in dead even with Mittens based on exit polling.

  11. 11.

    dmsilev

    Looking at the CNN exit polls, I see that Mitt won among voters making over $200K a year, and Newt won all other brackets. I’m shocked!

  12. 12.

    Suureal American

    this time fighting the way wingnuts wanted to, with Rev. Wright and birtherism and the whole bit?

    I’ll have fun pointing out to wingnuts that Jeremiah Wright is morally superior to Gingrich.

    Although that’s not exactly a high bar to clear.

  16. 16.

    Martin

    Yeah, the race is really on. Can Romney work in two divorces, two marriages, plus affairs and cancers before Super Tuesday?

    @Bondirotta:

    He won women

    He won married women.

  17. 17.

    dmsilev

    @Mr Stagger Lee: Doubt it. A brokered convention, possible, but no way it’s Jeb. That last name is still a killer; large swaths of the country blame Bush more than Obama for the economic issues.

  20. 20.

    DecidedFenceSitter

    So Santorum really won Iowa; Romney won New Hampshire; and Newt won South Carolina.

    Thank heavens I hit the grocery store tomorrow, popcorn is going to be in short supply

  22. 22.

    General Stuck

    Newt still has very strong headwinds to duplicate this win, especially in Florida with its demand for big bucks. And Romneys’s organization advantage which is vast over Gringrich. Newt could ramp it up probly enough, if he can get the party elders and money men behind him. So far, they flame him as badly, or worse than they do Obama. What a delicious quandary for the wingers. And I bet Obama and crew are walking on sunshine celebrating their good fortune right about now.

  23. 23.

    Bondirotta

    I think I’m warming up to this bloated toad because he reminds me of Baron Harkonnen. I always had a soft spot for Herbert.

  25. 25.

    butler

    On a personal note, I think this could be a good thing for my mental health.

    From now on, anytime I see someone voice an opinion ripping something I love or celebrating something that is terrible and I feel angry about it, I’m going to pause and tell myself:

    “Self, there are literally thousands of human beings in this country who freely and willingly voted for Newt Gingrich to be President and are happy about the prospect. Whatever you’re mad at now isn’t nearly as stupid as that. Take this as evidence that there are just some people who are dumb as shit and beyond help.”

  26. 26.

    Quarks

    Apparently the exit polls show that South Carolina Republicans don’t believe that Romney can defeat Obama. And I thought I couldn’t agree with SC Republicans on anything.

  27. 27.

    Alison

    @butler:

    Fox is reporting that their exit polls show that Newt won among married women.

    I have a feeling there’s a bunch of husbands in SC glancing sidelong at their wives and wondering if before or after dessert is the better time to suggest an open marriage…

  28. 28.

    Surreal American

    this time fighting the way wingnuts wanted to, with Rev. Wright and birtherism and the whole bit?

    I’ll have fun pointing out to wingnuts that Jeremiah Wright is morally superior to Gingrich.

    Although that’s not exactly a high bar to clear.

  31. 31.

    beltane

    Only 14% of the electorate was under 40. Wow. I think we are seeing Peak Wingnut unfold before our eyes.

  33. 33.

    Cacti

    @General Stuck:

    Newt could ramp it up probly enough, if he can get the party elders and money men behind him.

    Nah guh happen.

    If Gnewt wins, it will have to be as an insurgent. GOP Inc. threw him out and told him “don’t come back” a decade ago. This is his revenge tour.

  35. 35.

    dmsilev

    I guess that for tonight, there are only a couple of questions left. First, does Overinflated Ego beat Replicant by over ten points. Secondly, who takes third. If it’s Mad Dwarf, then Unfortunate Google Problem is in a really bad situation and would have to be at risk of being the next clown thrown from the car.

  36. 36.

    Bondirotta

    So Newt won independents as well. According to CNN, Newt won all women, not just married women.

    Romney has to tack right hard. He has to get a lot uglier. And he is already claiming Obama hates America.

  37. 37.

    Brachiator

    @Martin:

    Yeah, the race is really on. Can Romney work in two divorces, two marriages, plus affairs and cancers before Super Tuesday?

    Dude, Mitt’s a Mormon. He can rock it old style, and marry six women, and not even have to ask for an open marriage. Sister wives!

  38. 38.

    Comrade Mary

    I wouldn’t be too quick to assume that Newt would be easy to beat in the general. He’s an awful person with awful policies and sky high unfavourable numbers, but he’s a cornered rat — or a honey badger — who may bring out the base very solidly this fall.

    As those exit polls show, the solidest conservative elements of the Republicans are ready to forgive him ANYTHING because they want to grind Obama into the ground, he wants to grind Obama into the ground, and he has convinced them that he can do just that.

    I wouldn’t be too quick to assume that he couldn’t sell himself to independents as a tough, smart guy, too. As Krugman said, Gingrich sounds like a stupid person’s idea of a smart person. How many stupid people live in America?

  39. 39.

    butler

    @Surreal American: Now that they know what that means. I posted a while ago that I discovered one of the top 5 google searches on Thursday night was “open marriage”. No joke.

  40. 40.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Quarks:

    Their problem is that no one in the clown car can beat Obama.

    Aside from the inherent advantage of incumbency, the GOP is offering up no one who can break the “not insane” barrier in any way. Romney comes the closest, mainly because he’s a synthetic life form and not an ethically challenged former house speaker, or a sex-obsessed google phenomenon, or a gold bug Birchite shithead.

    They might as well just run Allen Keyes as the brokered convention solution and get it over with, hoping for the best in 2016.

  41. 41.

    Quarks

    @Martin: Yeah, I’m kinda staggering with that one myself.

    I honestly cannot think of a single scenario where I could be convinced to vote for Gingrich. I’d be more likely to vote for the Prohibition Party dude (apparently there’s one running) while chugging down a hard cider.

  42. 42.

    PaulW

    @Mr Stagger Lee:

    I wonder if this eventually sets the stage for a brokered convention and Jeb Bush becomes the nominee

    Considering how Dubya is persona non grata the last 3 years when it comes to GOP campaigning, there is no g-ddamn way a Bush is going to be a candidate for President for the next 100 years. The GOP establishment may like Jeb, but there’s still a massive majority of Americans who STILL STILL STILL WITH THE HEAT OF 1000 SUNS hate George W. Bush. All Obama’s people have to do is make an ad of Jeb’s face morphing into George’s and that will be Game Over.

    We’re more likely to see a Christie brokered convention than a Jeb Bush one.

  44. 44.

    beltane

    The ad coming up at the top of the page is from Spokeo “Is he cheating on you?”

    Mention Newt Gingrich and you’ll never know what the algorithm will produce.

  45. 45.

    PaulW

    Watching MSNBC a little here and there, and for some reason they’re projecting Newt as the winner but the current tally has Mitt in a small lead. I know there are projected results, but wouldn’t it make a little more sense to WAIT for Newt to gain a lead…?

  46. 46.

    General Stuck

    @Cacti:

    If he wins as an insurgent, then the RNC convention ought to be a hoot, maybe like their 1964 election. The GOP braintrust will have to fish or cut bait, or engineer a brokered coup. Obama can just run ads quoting various wingnut senators describing Gingrich as pretty much the spawn of Satan.

  47. 47.

    Quarks

    @Villago Delenda Est: I don’t know. On top of what Comrade Mary noted, if Europe’s economy flops over and starts sinking the U.S. economy with it over the summer, I think Obama can be facing a serious problem.

    Yes, Gingrich is a slimeball, but he’s already demonstrated that he will do anything and has absolutely no scruples. And if he wins the nomination, god help us, he’ll have a lot of solid money behind him.

    Although if anything was needed to bring Bill Clinton out swinging, Gingrich winning would be it.

  48. 48.

    Danny

    I blame the gays.

    I blame the hippies. Newt is a flower child, and it wouldnt be fair blaming him for getting a bit confused in that corrosive moral climate.

  49. 49.

    Davis X. Machina

    @The Dangerman: Money has very little to do with it… Gingrich is a native dog-whistle virutoso, and Romney has no real affinity or feeling for the instrument, which is particularly cherished in the folk music of South Carolina.

    All Mitt has to do to beat back this challenge and secure the nomination is to promise to press for repeal of Federal anti-lynching statutes — especially since the median GOP primary voter is old enough to remember their passage in the first place, as per beltane‘s catch…

  50. 50.

    dmsilev

    Tears of a wingnut. Erick Erickovich:

    Party leaders who have invested so much in Mitt Romney might want now to ride on to a brokered convention and find someone acceptable to everyone. Because this most divisive and bitter primary in years is going to wipe out the GOP’s chances to win in November. And while few of the Romney advocates of the past four years will admit it, it is because they have tried to foist onto the base a milquetoast moderate from Massachusetts as energizing to conservatives as a dead battery.

    What a wonderful rallying cry. “CandidateToBeNamedLater ’12!”

  51. 51.

    WereBear (itouch)

    OMG! it will go Thunderdome!

    I think we might just see Romney doing his Gingrich impression. Now is the time to put your sense of reality away in a drawer, lest it become irreversibly wrinkled.

  52. 52.

    Martin

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Their problem is that no one in the clown car can beat Obama.

    Yep. I know people are worried about this, but there’s just nothing that suggests Obama can lose this one. The real question is how long his coattails are going to be.

  53. 53.

    scav

    Do you think if the Family Values Party goes all-in for Open Marriages, they insist that gheys can only have Closed (they’ll call them closeted for old times sake) Marriages? I’m getting a little dizzy her but it may just be the giggling.

  55. 55.

    Quarks

    And yes, I realize that I’m contradicting myself all over the place, so, a clarification:

    If the U.S. economy sinks, a Republican could win the presidential election.

    I think Romney has a better chance in the general than Gingrich, but that doesn’t mean I’m discounting a Republican entirely.

  57. 57.

    Cacti

    @Comrade Mary:

    I wouldn’t be too quick to assume that Newt would be easy to beat in the general

    Just to give you a an idea of what a bloodbath Obama vs. Gnewt would be…

    In my GOP-friendly state of Arizona, Gnewt has a 51% unfavorable rating vs 26% favorable.

    Gnewt would get crushed, waxed, destroyed, obliterated.

  58. 58.

    barath

    They are all announcing that Newt won, which I knew yesterday because I read 538.

    And I should mention it’s something Al Giordano knew was likely over a month ago. The man has a sixth sense for political journalism…

  59. 59.

    CarolDuhart2

    I think if Newt gets to the general, that vote would be counteracted by the biggest black, latino and just about anybody Newt hates vote. Folks that have never voted in their lives will vote to keep Newt away from the Oval Office.

  60. 60.

    wrb

    @Martin:

    there’s just nothing that suggests Obama can lose this one.

    Umm.

    There is.

    Europe’s economy. China’s too. If we start to plunge again, any clown in the car could win. If recovery is strong, it probably Obama’s.

  64. 64.

    NR

    @General Stuck:

    I hope you meant that if Newt wins the nom for the GE, cause if he wins the general I’m boarding my canoe and paddling south.

    It’s okay. Nobody can do anything without 60 votes in the Senate. Or so I was repeatedly told in 2009 and 2010.

  65. 65.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @dmsilev:

    ride on to a brokered convention and find someone acceptable to everyone

    The notion that the Rethugs can agree on someone “acceptable to everyone” is ridiculous, unless they reanimate the corpse of Reagan and run him against Obama.

  66. 66.

    Cacti

    I have fantasies of Bill Clinton cutting campaign ads about the time Gnewt shut down the government as a tantrum about his seats on Air Force One.

  69. 69.

    Bruce S

    If anyone had doubts that Republicanism had devolved into a pathological display of bitter resentment, unfettered hypocrisy and aggressive ignorance before this primary season, you can put them to rest.

  70. 70.

    beltane

    @Benjamin Franklin: One good thing about the OWS movement is that gives me confidence that an attempted repeat of 2000 will not be met with the same type of silent passivity. Americans, at least young Americans, have a lot more fight in them now than they did in 2000.

  71. 71.

    Bondirotta

    So Romney is not going to release his tax info before Florida… Which means the two debates are going to hammer in that point this week. His only hope is to attack Newt on 15 year old ethics charges. That is going to look mighty bitter and desperate.

    Romney’s negatives are going to shoot above 50% now that he is forced to dive into gutter.

  72. 72.

    BO_Bill

    You are projected your political consciousness onto black and brown people CarolDuhart2. Most of these people are not engaged politically. The ones who believed that electing Barack would get them free gasoline and new kitchens are at this point disillusioned.

    On the other hand, Newt has the opportunity to appeal to the white vote. Being the opportunist that he is, he just might. If Barack’s birth certificate is fake (and I think it most likely is), Newt could run on a platform of deporting Barack as his first Presidential act.

  73. 73.

    Quaker in a Basement

    @Cacti: I have fantasies of Bill telling all about the midnight meeting that made Newt back off on the Monica scandal.

  76. 76.

    dmsilev

    @Villago Delenda Est: Of course it’s ridiculous. If there was such a magical candidate, they’d already be in the race. Still, you have to admit that it’s hilarious watching Erick ibn Erick come to grasps with the fact that the one person in position to stop Romney is Gingrich.

  77. 77.

    MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson

    I think I just heard a well-mannered scream of:

    “Oh for fudging Pete’s sake” from the general direction of South Carolina.

  78. 78.

    Martin

    @wrb:

    Europe’s economy. China’s too. If we start to plunge again, any clown in the car could win. If recovery is strong, it probably Obama’s.

    We’re growing at their expense at this point. I don’t think even those economies going to hell are going to hurt our economy, at least not this year.

    Honestly, if the economy were working that badly against Obama, he’d be polling worse than he is.

  79. 79.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Quaker in a Basement:

    I have fantasies of Bill telling all about the midnight meeting that made Newt back off on the Monica scandal.

    I thought it was Dick Armey, Tom Delay and few not so usual suspects (Lindsey Graham hated Gingrich) who put the knife in?

  80. 80.

    Roger Moore

    @Cacti:

    In my GOP-friendly state of Arizona, Gnewt has a 51% unfavorable rating vs 26% favorable.

    It’s not just that. The more Newt stays in the news, the higher his unfavorability goes. It’s uncanny.

  81. 81.

    dmsilev

    @BO_Bill:

    On the other hand, Newt has the opportunity to appeal to the white vote. Being the opportunist that he is, he just might. If Barack’s birth certificate is fake (and I think it most likely is), Newt could run on a platform of deporting Barack as his first Presidential act.

    I encourage the Republican nominee, whoever he may be, to follow this sage advice to its fullest.

  82. 82.

    dogwood

    @NR:

    It’s okay. Nobody can do anything without 60 votes in the Senate. Or so I was repeatedly told in 2009 and 2010.

    I’ll be interested to see your reaction if Newt or Mitt gets elected and 8-10 Democrats in the Senate reliably go along to get along, which is what they did with W. Will you be as critical of them as you are of the president?

  83. 83.

    lamh35

    Ugh Mittens speaking, I’m watch some VH1 Soul til he’s done. Can’t stand the sound of his smug azz voice.

    Tell me when he’s done.

  87. 87.

    Comrade Mary

    Um, did a thread disappear? Wasn’t there one between this one and Betty’s honey badger?

  88. 88.

    Cacti

    @Benjamin Franklin:

    Yeah, but he can close enough to create another 2000 ?

    No, he really couldn’t.

    A selection of Gingrich favorability ratings from PPP as of Jan 15-16:

    US: 26% favorable, 60% unfavorable

    Arizona: 26% favorable, 51% unfavorable

    Ohio: 26% favorable, 51% unfavorable

    Texas: 33% favorable, 53% unfavorable

  89. 89.

    Shawn in ShowMe

    Sarah Palin, your party needs you! Big Media needs you! Greenwald and Hamsher need you! You’re their only hope!

  91. 91.

    Egg Berry

    Fox is reporting that their exit polls show that Newt won among married women.

    I would like to know the religious makeup of these women. The “he asked forgiveness” angle could easily explain this.

  93. 93.

    Bondirotta

    Romney doing his stump speech attacking Obama. You aren’t the candidate, fool – acting like you are on the night you lose SC is delusional. Weirdo.

  95. 95.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @butler: Oh, I bet the awkward robotic laughter is getting a work out. Are the Romney boys managing to keep up their junior gameshow host smiles?

  97. 97.

    Comrade Mary

    /sigh

    OK, this is the thread. No thread has disappeared. Maybe John just changed the title. Maybe I should step away from the keyboard for some eating, drinking and carousing.

  99. 99.

    cathyx

    It’s six of one and a half of a dozen of the other with Newt and Mitt. Both have so many negatives, it doesn’t matter who gets the nomination.

  101. 101.

    cmorenc

    @General Stuck:

    If he wins as an insurgent, then the RNC convention ought to be a hoot, maybe like their 1964 election. The GOP braintrust will have to fish or cut bait, or engineer a brokered coup.

    If Newt has anywhere remotely close to a majority of delegates, or even a strong plurality by a large percentage over the next closest contender, the GOP braintrust will find it nearly impossible to viably broker the nomination to someone who didn’t even step forward to run in the primaries. If they did, the wingnuts will take an angry walk on the establishment, and either stay home come November or else bolt to a third party candidate, to show that they can’t be pushed aside like silly children unable to make an informed choice. The Tea Party is like the classic “Sorcerer’s Apprentice” segment of “Fantasia”…the establishment approvingly facilitated it’s creation, thinking they could control them like useful tools and have them obediently stand down when they’d accomplished what the establishment desired. They’re already finding out that they can’t control it now that they’ve set it loose.

  103. 103.

    dmsilev

    Scary thought: This is Mitt Romney being emotional and pumping up the crowd. Remember John McCain’s Green-screen speech?

  104. 104.

    wrb

    @Martin:

    if the economy were working that badly against Obama, he’d be polling worse than he is.

    Direction matters. Whether there is hope or none.

    If it is heading downward I think many will be voting their fear.

  107. 107.

    CarolDuhart2

    @BO_Bill: I am black, B.O Bill. And I know my people. We’re already on board, if you check my website. But those folks who think there’s no difference or who shrug off voting will come out for this one. And the 5% who vote Republican would never vote for Newt. And Latinos? Think 80-90% Dem vote. And he has no way to appeal to anyone under 45 at all. He has no appeal to kids who don’t remember the Cold War and “the way things used to be”.

  108. 108.

    butler

    “Our campaign will be about the businesses I helped start, not the bills I tried to pass”.

    Quick questions:

    1) What businesses did you start?

    2) We aren’t supposed to judge your value as an elected official by your legislative history?

  110. 110.

    Cacti

    @JPL:

    Romney sounds weak..imo..

    Romney got straight up punked in SC. Gnewt shoved him in the mud and stole his lunch money.

  111. 111.

    lamh35

    Yeah, this is certainly NOT a “Yes We Can” speech is it.

    Romney sticking to his attack Obama schidt too.

    That’s the problem Mittens…YOU ARE NOT THE NOMINEE YET.

    Dude doesn’t look like a fighter up there.

    Try watching him without the sound guys. He looks like he’s been crying and he looks damn near defeated.

    Compared to Obama after his big defeat in New Hampshire Romney kinda looks like weak dweeb.

  112. 112.

    Bondirotta

    Santorum now only 11% behind Romney. Mitt may come third in some of those whacko Southern states.

  114. 114.

    beltane

    @BO_Bill: This is true. I really was hoping that Michelle Obama would personally take me to Lowes to buy a new range and convection over so I can prepare healthy meals for my children. The sense of betrayal I am experiencing is immense. Perhaps I will have better luck with my kitchen remodeling project if I vote for Newt and his First Putan.

  115. 115.

    Midnight Marauder

    These crazy motherfuckers might actually nominate disgraced former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, for President of the United States.

    Oh, Mittens. You poor gentle humanoid. You had no idea this was coming, did you?

  117. 117.

    Yutsano

    @Comrade Mary:

    Maybe I should step away from the keyboard for some eating, drinking and carousing.

    If it were geographically feasible, I’d meet you for mussels in white wine. Or white wine and mussels. I’m flexible. :)

  120. 120.

    Emerald

    @barath: Yup. Al Giordano is back pundinting on American politics!

    Here’s what he wrote about Newt on December 22:

    And that’s Gingrich’s ace up his sleeve: He’s got a firewall around the South’s winner-take-all primaries that General Sherman couldn’t march through, much less Mitt Romney. All Newt has to do is survive Iowa and New Hampshire, and then comes the Georgian’s moment in the sun with a string of victories below the Mason-Dixon line.

    and later in the same post:

    . . . I am ready to project that, win or lose the first caucuses, Gingrich is not going away, he is going to be a force to be reckoned with in the primaries down the stretch, especially in the South, and I still think, as I wrote here in April 2010, that the media – perhaps partly out of the intense personal dislike he provokes – has always underestimated him. I dislike him, too. But that doesn’t color the cold and rational projections that y’all rely on me to make. This should have been evident to all the “professionals” of the pundit class 20 months ago! Of all the GOP hopefuls, he’s the only man with a plan. That makes him armed and dangerous and nothing that has happened so far, not even his sudden dip in Iowa polls, causes me to reconsider my general sense that in the sum of all the primaries and caucuses of the coming months, Newt Gingrich is likely to carve his initials with a switchblade through Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, or anyone else he perceives as standing between him and the Republican nomination.

    And if that works for Gingrich in the primaries, he’ll then bring that knife to the gunfight of the general election. And that will likely have a less stellar outcome for him. So, put the popcorn on the fire and let’s sit back and watch the Republicans, for a change, kick the crap out of each other in a contest that is practically designed for the meanest man to win.

    Al often is right about these things. He called it for Obama long before the Iowa Caucuses in 2007. The Field (in addition to Balloon Juice) looks like once again, is the blog to watch.

  122. 122.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Bondirotta:

    Mitt may come third in some of those whacko Southern states.

    Like Florida? That’s a question, not a shot. I’ve seen pundits say that FL’s closed primary is a boon to Romney, and others say a threat. Seems to me the FL GOP leans pretty heavy toward tea-baggers and some unenlightened views on race. Seems to me Gingrich’s dog-whistling and neo-conism could help him down there.

  123. 123.

    NR

    @dogwood: You’re obviously mistaken. The President has absolutely no power to convince anyone in Congress to change their vote about anything. I was also repeatedly told this in 2009 and 2010.

  124. 124.

    quannlace

    Sarah Palin, your party needs you!

    Maybe they can lure Fred Thompson away from his new role as insurance pitch man.

  125. 125.

    Arclite

    They are all announcing that Newt won, which I knew yesterday because I read 538.

    Nate Silver is the bomb. I’m surprised he’s not making six figures doing this kind of thing for Obama.

  126. 126.

    Cacti

    The 2012 GOP nomination is turning into the fratricidal knife fight I always hoped it would be.

  127. 127.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Cacti: I thought Giuliani was gonna do in 2008 what Gingrich is doing now. I despise Newton Leory, but it is fascinating to watch what started as essentially a PR/ book-selling tour into an ego-fuelled scorched earth campaign.

  128. 128.

    barath

    @Emerald:

    Yeah, the reason I like reading Al more than Nate Silver (who, don’t get me wrong, is very good at what he does) is that Al combines a knowledge of politics, demographics, history, and (real) journalism. Nate is good with numbers, but I don’t think he has that sixth sense, so when the numbers aren’t sufficient to give you a clear picture, he’s lost. Which is why until a few days ago Nate had Romney winning.

  131. 131.

    Citizen_X

    I know that there’s an awfully long way to go, but I’m putting in my orders for champagne for November now.

  133. 133.

    Emerald

    @barath: I love Al. I love Nate too, but Al just has more native insight than any other pundit.

    (And I apologize for the messiness of my post above. The edit button has vanished.)

  134. 134.

    butler

    Professor Paul is rambling on about fiat currency and the gold stanzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz………….

  135. 135.

    Thymezone

    I will tell you what this all means. It means that John Cole doesn’t have the stones to keep a high strung, slightly disagreeable front pager on his rolls because he is intent on showing her who is boss here and that is always the most important fucking thing about Balloon-Juice.

    It’s a damned shame. Embarrassing.

    Oh wait, isn’t this an open thread? I am so sorry.

  136. 136.

    Bondirotta

    Romney’s 23 point lead flipped to 10 point loss in ten days in SC.

    I think Mitt’s lead in Florida will be less than 10 points before Monday’s debate. This is just going to be a blast. The fact that Romney is still doing stump speeches shows he has learned nothing.

  137. 137.

    Rome Again

    @BO_Bill:

    Bill’s going full on racist again. Look out.

    Seriously? Why is he allowed to put this crap here?

    Bill? When the forebearers of the African American population came to this country, they worked for FREE for 200 years. F*CK You!

  139. 139.

    chopper

    @Quarks:

    romney’s two core supports just gave way; inevitability, and ‘i’m the best chance to beat obama’. ‘i’m the adult in the room’ was his third, but he lost that leg a month ago.

    other than those two his whole campaign is a house of cards.

  140. 140.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @butler: He is working himself up to a few dagnabbits and flippity-floppity-boos, isn’t he? Why is MSNBC covering this whole thing?

  142. 142.

    Shawn in ShowMe

    @Arclite:

    Nate Silver is the bomb. I’m surprised he’s not making six figures doing this kind of thing for Obama.

    Less than a week ago the same Nate Silver forecast that Mitt Romney had an 82 percent chance to win South Carolina. Nah, I’d prefer the prez not spend our dwindling tax dollars on picking horse races. Matoko chan/Samara Morgan/Replicant Hunter has been giving us this pick for free three times a thread. You coulda made out like a bandit.

  143. 143.

    grandpa john

    @The Dangerman: actually 3
    don’t mean that much here in SC, its rather common, hell both my daughters have been married times and they are not even republicans

  146. 146.

    beltane

    One of the FPers should put up a compendium of schadenfreude posts from the wingnutosphere. There is so much heartache out there tonight; it would be a shame to miss it.

  147. 147.

    Thymezone

    @BO_Bill:

    You aint the real BO deal, my friend. Your namesake was much more diabolical.

    Well, unless your handle is Body Odor Bill. In that case, never mind.

  148. 148.

    J

    @Comrade Mary: point taken! Remember that the Republican party, which had an awesome record of shame and failure, much of which it had compiled in very recent memory, won big in 2010. I hope Obama and the Democrats aren’t relying on the shear awfulness of their opponents to guarantee them victory in the coming election. George W. Bush won one election (and took office after another) despite opponents who were manifestly more decent, honorable and capable.

  149. 149.

    JGabriel

    @Quaker in a Basement:

    I have fantasies of Bill telling all about the midnight meeting that made Newt back off on the Monica scandal.

    Me too. But I think that only comes out in the general, and only if Newt wins the nomination.

    .

  150. 150.

    butler

    Less than a week ago the same Nate Silver forecast that Mitt Romney had an 82 percent chance to win South Carolina

    Less than a week ago Romney hadn’t yet imploded and Newt hadn’t finished playing his dog whistle symphony. And had the election been then, I think Romney probably would have won. There’s a reason they don’t turn off the stadium lights at halftime.

  151. 151.

    Cat Lady

    @beltane:

    Shorter K-Lo: Dear Diary – my true love is wounded and I’m here to rescue him from the slings and arrows by promoting his warrior ways – he said “interesting”. Be still my heart, my hero my love.

  152. 152.

    chopper

    @butler:

    a lot of us here were predicting that romney would lose SC. but a week ago we were starting to have second thoughts, or at least thought it was down to 50/50.

  153. 153.

    butler

    Santorum: “Three states… Three winners… what a great country!”

    All three are facts, yet not related. Not sure how these three “winners” point to a great country.

  154. 154.

    ericblair

    @J:

    George W. Bush won one election (and took office after another) despite opponents who were manifestly more decent, honorable and capable.

    Dubya had a well-oiled campaign machine working since day 1 to get him into office. Also, he was the blue-blood son of privilege, so he knew how to shut up and let daddy’s men in suits run the tricky bits. Romney’s got the organization but is as inspirational as cold oatmeal, and Gingrich is a hate-fuelled bomb-thrower who goes through staff like toilet paper the day after Thanksgiving.

  155. 155.

    Surreal American

    @Cat Lady:

    Be still my heart, my hero my love.

    My own, my love, my prrrecioussss.

    Still, why should K-Lo be so bent out of shape over Mittens’ SC loss? Gingrich is Catholic nowadays.

  159. 159.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @beltane:

    Um, someone help me. My Schadenfreude meter has been damaged by the constant pegging of max level over the past few weeks as slime molds like K-Lo have been crying their bitter tears.

  160. 160.

    Gust Avrakotos

    “…has a real shot at being the nominee”

    Bahaha….what a surprise, Wrong Again Cole is wrong again.

    Cole showing what a clueless moron he is yet again. Better stick with obsessing over drones coming to get ya.

  162. 162.

    Gust Avrakotos

    “…has a real shot at being the nominee”

    Bahaha….what a surprise, Wrong Again Cole is wrong again. Showing what a clueless moron he is yet again. Better stick with obsessing over drones coming to get ya.

  164. 164.

    J

    @ericblair: Hope you’re right, but I urge everyone (myself included) to guard against complacency. If this were a sane country, the Bush years would have guaranteed that the Republicans spent many years in the political wilderness instead of a few months. There may be–I hope there are–limits to how awful a person, and his attitudes and policies, the electorate is willing to embrace, but I don’t know where they are anymore.

  165. 165.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @barath:

    <I should mention it’s something Al Giordano knew was likely over a month ago.

    I always pegged gNewt for SC, just looking at the 2008 returns where Mittens came fourth with 15%, and smelling the air as it wafts over the state line. Getting 26% this time round ain’t pretty for him, though I’d like to see the exit poll crosstabs on when the voters made up their mind, and whether Newt’s whistling-not-just-for-dogs and Mittens’ umming about his 1040s had an impact.

  166. 166.

    Keith G

    @J: I wish more peeps here held your concern. The nominee of the GOP will be given a clean slate, a fresh look, and a chance to play their strongest hand this Fall.

    Nothing is certain.

  167. 167.

    Emma

    @beltane: So I play a little online Scrabble and drop by to see the latest and… BOBBY JINDAL? Mary and Joseph on the way to Nazareth, really? Bobby Jindal?

    insane laughter

  168. 168.

    PaulW

    I think this year it would be the first time ever when the Republicans riot at their own convention.

    Sigh. It *would* have to be in Tampa this year…

  171. 171.

    dmbeaster

    @beltane:

    Gingrich will motivate all factions of the left like nothing else ever has. We will have our Satan who must be destroyed at all costs.

    Do the firebaggers and GG count as a faction of the left?

  174. 174.

    Triassic Sands

    Newt’s momentum is from his willingness to find dirty and hard, and wingnuts love that.

    If fighting dirty was a prescription for victory, Mitt would have tied Newt. But wingnuts probably love an authentic dirty fighter more, rather than some phony politibot who will say or do anything to get elected.

  175. 175.

    Thymezone

    @Triassic Sands:

    Yes, Gingrich has proved himself a sincere warrior for over two decades now. More than anything, he is sincere and authentic. That’s his trademark. Sincerity and authenticity. You nailed it.

  179. 179.

    mclaren

    @J:

    There may be—I hope there are—limits to how awful a person, and his attitudes and policies, the electorate is willing to embrace, but I don’t know where they are anymore.

    Not as long as Anti-liberal Black Lady and her paid Republican operative cohorts can convince the rest of us to “vote for the lesser of two evils.” After a few elections of that kind of thinking, you wind up casting your ballot for Pol Pot…because (repeat after me) he’s the lesser of two evils.

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