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You are here: Home / Past Elections / Election 2012 / Newt’s On Top

Newt’s On Top

by $8 blue check mistermix|  January 21, 20128:42 am| 87 Comments

This post is in: Election 2012

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Nate Silver’s forecasts give Newt an 82% chance of winning in South Carolina, with an 8 point margin over Romney.

Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, for instance, Mr. Gingrich led Mr. Romney by 4 percentage points in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, based on a detailed break-out of nightly results provided to FiveThirtyEight by Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. But Mr. Gingrich’s lead expanded to 6 points in interviews conducted on Thursday. And Mr. Gingrich led by 14 points in about 700 interviews conducted on Friday night, which postdated the Thursday night debate in North Charleston, and the interview given to ABC News by one of Mr. Gingrich’s ex-wives.

In primaries, especially in the early-voting states, momentum is a strong predictor of the results, and it is usually correct to give considerable weight to the most recent data.

In other words, there’s a good chance that Newt could crush Romney in South Carolina.  I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Newt win most of the Southern primaries.  No one else in the field can bitch slap reporters like the former Speaker, and he has no peer in race baiting.  Plus, he’s not a Mormon.

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Reader Interactions

87Comments

  1. 1.

    MattF

    January 21, 2012 at 8:49 am

    Oh, boy. Rough beast slouches towards Bethlehem, et cetera.

  2. 2.

    magurakurin

    January 21, 2012 at 8:52 am

    THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!

  3. 3.

    brettvk

    January 21, 2012 at 8:52 am

    Sweet suffering Joseph Smith. Could the Mittster actually lose the nom to a POS like Gingrich?

  4. 4.

    brettvk

    January 21, 2012 at 8:55 am

    As awful as the current reality is and and as awful as the consequences could be — I have to say, this year is shaping up to be a political junkie’s wet dream.

  5. 5.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 8:55 am

    So if this does happen, does Newt become the nominee? Or do we go to a brokered convention and a consensus candidate/slate/?

    Should a brokered convention happen, two people I would keep an eye on: Ron Paul and Romney. Ron Paul is on a crusade, not a push for the nomination, so he will stay in the race to the end and have a fair number of delegates. Romney has at least a path to money needed. Could the deal be a newcomer/either of these guys in exchange for delegates and money to run? I would think if such a deal materialized it would be newcomer/Romney. Romney is younger and has more money, and despite his many flaws, at least he won’t embarass the ticket too much due to scandal.

    In such a scenario too, it probably wouldn’t be too much to realize that the Presidency would be out of reach for 2012, and that the real game is defending Congress.

  6. 6.

    Downpuppy

    January 21, 2012 at 8:56 am

    It kida depends on whether Romeny has paid ES&S. Otherwise, Alvin Greene could pull another one.

  7. 7.

    cmorenc

    January 21, 2012 at 8:56 am

    Even with a big win in SC, whose GOP demographics are about as favorable to Newt as he could wish for, Florida will be a different sort of challenge. Big sections of the northern third of the state are culturally similar to the low country of South Carolina, but the further south you go into Florida, the less “southern” the demographics and culture become and the more it becomes yankee and midwestern expatriates and the ethnic mix becomes less like South Carolina. In Florida, it will be more of a battle of ideological preferences and generic trust in character (Newt’s flaws vs Romney’s flaws). Gingrich may still gain some advantage coming off an SC win, but it’s highly misleading to simply think that because SC and Florida are both “southern” states, a win in SC means Gingrich will do similarly well in similar political demographics. This assumption simply isn’t true, because Florida isn’t a true southern state, not now, nor was it ever (except for northernmost Florida).

  8. 8.

    Downpuppy

    January 21, 2012 at 8:57 am

    I miss you, edit function! Please come back.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    January 21, 2012 at 8:57 am

    Remember when all of Newt’s staff quit and he was a dead man walking? Good times.

  10. 10.

    Cat Lady

    January 21, 2012 at 8:58 am

    If Mittens wasn’t such a lying smarmy entitled fuquwad whose face needs a fist in it, I’d almost start feeling sorry for him. He chose to lie down with dogs. He chose poorly.

  11. 11.

    Elizabelle

    January 21, 2012 at 9:01 am

    I am thinking Newt is a recruiter’s dream.

    For voters who cannot wait to vote for Obama.

  12. 12.

    brettvk

    January 21, 2012 at 9:03 am

    @cmorenc: As well, I seem to recall that earlier on it looked like Newt was just running to hawk his books, because he hadn’t bothered to set up the state-by-state infrastructure a serious bid needed. He won’t be on the Virginia ballot, f’instance. Does a late surge make state committees magically appear?

  13. 13.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 9:04 am

    True. Florida is less culturally Southern. But we’re talking about the Republican primary. Most of the culturally diverse folks are Democrats who won’t be participating in it. So Newt could win again-except for the fact he has no organization and probably not enough money for the needed media and ground game. Romney could hold on simply because of the fact that he could afford Florida’s high media costs.

    The rest of the South looks better for Newt: Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, and even Kentucky. A sweep of these states and Newt is sitting pretty. The problem will be everywhere else where a bombastic approach doesn’t work very well, and even bigots prefer a more nuanced appeal. It will be where media is expensive and campaigning also expensive. Which is why most folks think a bloodied Mittens will pull it out in the end.

  14. 14.

    Mino

    January 21, 2012 at 9:04 am

    I don’t see any way the GOP runs Newt for Pres. They’d Oswald him themselves.

  15. 15.

    harlana

    January 21, 2012 at 9:07 am

    @Gin & Tonic: isn’t that something – i still can hardly believe it – but apparently the race-baiting is really paying off in SC – i’m really ashamed of my state and these disgusting spectacles – THANKS GUYS! I’M EMBARRASSED AS FUCK!

    as the same time, mix it up republicans, the end result, whatever it may be will benefit Obama enormously

    and the implosion is a thing of beauty

  16. 16.

    Samara Morgan

    January 21, 2012 at 9:09 am

    paging suzanne and the BJ morals police!
    mixie said the M word!
    hahaha

  17. 17.

    Amir Khalid

    January 21, 2012 at 9:09 am

    @brettvk:
    Noot can definitely force Mitt to work for it. Mitt will resent that more and more over the primary season. And even if Mitt ends up with the nomination, half a year of Noot provoking him is bound to be entertaining, besides yielding many many more opportunities for Mitt to insert foot in mouth.

    Also too, a Republican primary season of uncertainty thanks to the lack of a clear leader is just what commenters here are wishing for. And seeing a wish come true is always wonderful, n’est-ce pas?

  18. 18.

    harlana

    January 21, 2012 at 9:10 am

    the tears and anguish of the likes of Erick Erickson make it all worth it

  19. 19.

    merrinc

    January 21, 2012 at 9:12 am

    No one else in the field can bitch slap reporters like the former Speaker, and he has no peer in race baiting. Plus, he’s not a Mormon.

    Concise and dead-on. Balloon-Juice Front Pagers: Cutting Through the Bullshit since 2002.

  20. 20.

    amk

    January 21, 2012 at 9:13 am

    @CarolDuhart2: willard is a scandal by himself.

  21. 21.

    Elizabelle

    January 21, 2012 at 9:14 am

    Any guesses on how Colbert will fare?

  22. 22.

    MikeBoyScout

    January 21, 2012 at 9:15 am

    Schadenfreude. Delicious schadenfreude.

  23. 23.

    JPL

    January 21, 2012 at 9:16 am

    @harlana: The NYTimes had a reporter in a household in SC during the debate. Are the whites in SC incapable of hard work? Talk about a poor work ethic.. (sarcasm)

    Immigration in South Carolina, which has one of the toughest state laws in the country, is important to this room……………………………………………’
    Most think some kind of legal pathway is a good idea. Others don’t think it will work…………………….
    “We can’t send all the illegals home,” says Mr. Dillard, who worked in the textile industry until he retired. “We can’t feed ourselves if we do. It’s a sad thing to say, but the illegals in this country do what the black people used to do.”…………………………………………..
    The anti-immigrant sentiment continues to get even more heated………………………………………….
    “There are just too many illegals coming over the border,” says Kathleen Jennings……………………………..
    “But they are just physically doing the work here that no one else will do,” asks our hostess, Karen Hyatt. “Who is going to do the work?”..

  24. 24.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 9:17 am

    @amk:

    I’m thinking compared to Paul or Newt. Williard might be a cold, offshoring, tighty, but compared to race-baiting Newt, or ancient, creaking, crabby Paul of the newsletters, he’s better. Plus he comes with money, instead of costing money like the other two.

    I’m

  25. 25.

    EconWatcher

    January 21, 2012 at 9:18 am

    What happened to the frothy guy? If he drops out, the Mittster will be in a world of hurt, even more than now.

  26. 26.

    Mino

    January 21, 2012 at 9:19 am

    @JPL: Immigration from Mexico has slowed to a trickle. Wait til nest year’s crop season to hear the screams.

  27. 27.

    dmsilev

    January 21, 2012 at 9:26 am

    A couple of things come to mind. First, Mittens is vacillating about whether to show up for a debate scheduled for Monday. If he does pull out, and if the debate goes on, that’s killer. Gingrich gets to stand there and say “I beat Romney in South Carolina and now he’s apparently too frightened to face me directly”. About the only worse thing Romney could do is release a video of him bathing in a tub filled with $100 bills.

    Secondly, Josh Marhsall posted this yesterday. For the country as a whole, Newt Gingrich currently has a 59% unfavorable rating and steadily getting worse. A Gingrich nomination, or even an extended period in which the GOP is identified with Gingrich, is a dream come true for the Obama team.

  28. 28.

    Davis X. Machina

    January 21, 2012 at 9:29 am

    Catholic, Mormon, Mormon, Catholic. Won’t matter a bit.

    All those Evangelical-Dominionist-Christianist folks are just waiting to see which white guy they vote for. After climbing over broken glass to do so.

    Religion isn’t going to actually matter in the general election
    . Not this time, not with a colored man in the White House in esse, and not just in posse.

    The antebellum period has more than a few examples of religious organizations — including the Baptists splitting along regional (i.e. racial) grounds. I can’t remember a single example of an abolitionist group — or a white-supremacy one — fracturing along denominational grounds.

    Remember, this is America, where it’s always 1860.

  29. 29.

    Davis X. Machina

    January 21, 2012 at 9:31 am

    @Davis X. Machina: Should be a closing double dash in there: “The antebellum period has more than a few examples of religious organizations—including the Baptists–splitting along regional (i.e. racial) grounds.”

    Where’d the edit function go?

  30. 30.

    merrinc

    January 21, 2012 at 9:34 am

    @JPL:

    This is absolutely correct. I’ve lived in NC since 1985 and can tell you that the immigrants, illegal or otherwise, are doing jobs no white folks will do. Mowing grass and edging in 100 degree heat with humidity so thick you could cut it? That kind of work, my friends, is apparently a job only for Mexicans.

    Farmers in GA and AL are already whining about how those states’ new immigration laws are impeding their ability to plant and sow crops. But we’re Americans, and in this case, southern Americans, so it will take a whole lot longer for us to make a connection between cause and effect.

  31. 31.

    brettvk

    January 21, 2012 at 9:35 am

    @dmsilev: Mitt really can’t blow off debates, win or lose SC, especially so if Newt really starts scoring. Even low-information voters would notice Mitt if he looks to be turning yellow.

  32. 32.

    Raven

    January 21, 2012 at 9:37 am

    @merrinc: White folks? How bout “any folks”?

  33. 33.

    Amir Khalid

    January 21, 2012 at 9:38 am

    Is Mitt dumb enough to concede the Monday debate by a walkover? I can just imagine Noot, Mr Frothy, and Uncle Ron glancing at his empty lectern. I can see the damning image in Tuesday’s TV stories. I can picture editorial cartoons with Mitt in a chicken suit.

  34. 34.

    dmsilev

    January 21, 2012 at 9:38 am

    @brettvk: Agreed. If he really doesn’t want to do the debate, his only option is to hope that NBC cancels it. If there’s a debate and he isn’t there, it’s horrible for him.

  35. 35.

    beltane

    January 21, 2012 at 9:39 am

    @Mino: The solution to unharvested crops is to recruit gangs of teabaggers to work the fields. Let’s see the stuff these hard-working white people are really made of. I suspect they’re made of lard, sweat, and indolence but we shall see.

  36. 36.

    JPL

    January 21, 2012 at 9:49 am

    @Raven: The post was in response to mine at 23 and it had to do with the whites and work ethic. (sarcasm)

  37. 37.

    brettvk

    January 21, 2012 at 9:50 am

    @dmsilev: I’m willing to believe that the Villagers and their corporate masters are prepared to be very cordial to Mitt, but I’d be surprised if they’d be so cooperative as to cancel one or more debates just for his convenience. (Wouldn’t cancelling one bring the whole schedule down? Why would Mitt do any more ever?)

  38. 38.

    JPL

    January 21, 2012 at 9:50 am

    @beltane: Newt can lead the way.

  39. 39.

    Raven

    January 21, 2012 at 9:52 am

    @JPL: That’s what I get for not reading the entire thread before I open my big fat mouth. I’m in trouble on Facebook for trying to inject humor into the anti-Walmart brawl over here.

  40. 40.

    Linda Featheringill

    January 21, 2012 at 9:53 am

    Morning, folks.

    You may have already seen this but I’ll throw it out anyway. These are the GOP candidates as Dungeons and Dragons characters.

    http://www.funnyordie.com/lists/e0cb0351f6/presidential-candidates-explained-through-dungeons-and-dragons-character-sheets

  41. 41.

    Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)

    January 21, 2012 at 9:55 am

    @merrinc:

    But we’re Americans, and in this case, southern Americans, so it will take a whole lot longer for us to make a connection between cause and effect.

    I laughed my fucking ass off this past summer when the Vidalia onion farmers in south Georgia (my home state) were screaming about not being able to harvest their crops because the migrant workers were avoiding Georgia and its new, draconian immigration law. It was only then that Gov. Nathan Deal – who is exactly what you’d imagine the governor of Georgia being like – said that he wanted to “gather more data.”

    So it’s more than not understanding cause and effect. It’s more like standing the old saying about “Measure twice, cut once” on its head.

  42. 42.

    Mike in NC

    January 21, 2012 at 9:55 am

    @MikeBoyScout:

    Schadenfreude. Delicious schadenfreude.

    Can we coin a new term: SchadenMitt ?

  43. 43.

    WereBear

    January 21, 2012 at 9:56 am

    @beltane: Lard, sweat, and indolence is my new favorite band name.

    I think they do hybrid polka/punk, but it’s a slippery taxonomy.

  44. 44.

    JPL

    January 21, 2012 at 9:57 am

    @Raven: That’s me and why I started putting (sarcasm) next to comments. Bozo boortz uses work ethic so often, I want to scream. Actually, I just turned him off.
    I have buds on my daffodils…

  45. 45.

    Schlemizel

    January 21, 2012 at 9:57 am

    Despite his huge negatives the slimy amphibian scares me more than the rest of the clown car. You can see the press warming up to Gore Willard & that would be a pleasant thing to watch. But Salamander is labeled a genius by the steno pool and you saw how well he plays them. They would let him turn all his negatives into their fault or good things.

    I hope he continues to vex Willard and goading him into more stupid sound bites but I hope he does not win.

  46. 46.

    Raven

    January 21, 2012 at 9:59 am

    @JPL: I tune in to Boortz at noon because I love the way Jamie Dupree throws cold water on his bullshit.

  47. 47.

    Linda Featheringill

    January 21, 2012 at 10:01 am

    @JPL: #23

    Are the whites in SC incapable of hard work? Talk about a poor work ethic. (sarcasm)

    Maybe. Or maybe these people are aware of just how hard some of that work is.

    Back on the farm in hot-and-humid country, many long years ago in my youth, we worked in the fields but it was nothing like what is expected of commercial farm workers. We did it in a split shift: About 5:00 to 9:00 in the morning and again about 5:00 to 9:00 in the evening, with serious siesta time in between.

    I have no idea what it would be like to work in the fields all day, every day. Horrible to even think about.

  48. 48.

    Raven

    January 21, 2012 at 10:02 am

    @JPL: And I actually went back and said that after I posted a Diane Keaton quote from Love and Death on the thread and my FB friend thought I was serious about her being “jejune’!

  49. 49.

    Linda Featheringill

    January 21, 2012 at 10:07 am

    @harlana: #15

    Good morning.

    You have my sympathy. Being sane and intelligent in the middle of a bunch of stupid idiots can really make you feel left out of things.

    I personally think we should be helping the Dems in SC and a few other places where they need all the encouragement they could get. But I don’t know how to go about doing that. Do you have any ideas?

  50. 50.

    Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)

    January 21, 2012 at 10:18 am

    @Linda Featheringill: Well I just moved from South Carolina, and when I talk to not just Democrats, but thinking people of any stripe who still live there, I recommend that they move to another state if they’re able. So I guess that’s encouragement of a sort.

  51. 51.

    redshirt

    January 21, 2012 at 10:34 am

    Let me surprisingly be the first to say to ”
    Newt on Top”.

    Ewwww. No thanks.

  52. 52.

    pamelabrown

    January 21, 2012 at 10:42 am

    @CarolDuhart2: As a Floridian, I think Mitt’s deep pockets will help. In the last 2 days, we’ve had 3 pro-Romney robo-calls.

  53. 53.

    Cacti

    January 21, 2012 at 11:01 am

    Looking forward to the confederate voters giving Romneybot a big, southern-fried middle finger.

    Go Gnewt! Brokered convention!

  54. 54.

    Villago Delenda Est

    January 21, 2012 at 11:04 am

    So, what ever happened to Veritas/RealityCheck and his shouts of VICTORY! and UNLIMITED CASH!? Looks like OvenMitt is in a world of hurt, out-ni*CLANG*ed by the vile amphibian.

    As seen in the newer thread, the loathsome Krauthammer creature is also having a serious sad about this entire thing, and yeah, my Schadenfreude meter is again twitching like mad at the pegged out end of the dial.

  55. 55.

    chopper

    January 21, 2012 at 11:04 am

    @Mike in NC:

    SchadenFraud?

  56. 56.

    dmsilev

    January 21, 2012 at 11:06 am

    @brettvk: Apparently, the Romney campaign has seen the obvious and have confirmed that he will be present at the Monday debate.

    Get the popcorn ready; it’s going to be an amusing ride.

  57. 57.

    dmsilev

    January 21, 2012 at 11:08 am

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    So, what ever happened to Veritas/RealityCheck and his shouts of VICTORY! and UNLIMITED CASH!? Looks like OvenMitt is in a world of hurt, out-ni*CLANG*ed by the vile amphibian.

    Well, you know how it is. His division wasn’t meeting the performance metrics that the new management put in place, and it is of course necessary to trim the fat in order to meet quarterly goals, so I’m sad to say that he’s been laid off by TrollCo.

  58. 58.

    Cacti

    January 21, 2012 at 11:09 am

    @Schlemizel:

    Despite his huge negatives the slimy amphibian scares me more than the rest of the clown car. You can see the press warming up to Gore Willard & that would be a pleasant thing to watch. But Salamander is labeled a genius by the steno pool and you saw how well he plays them. They would let him turn all his negatives into their fault or good things.

    I don’t fear Gnewt at all as a POTUS candidate. He would be a 2012 Goldwater. He has sub-20 favorable ratings with women and independents, plus a tendency to frequently say things that remind people what an asshole he is (i.e. fire janitors and make poor kids clean schools!).

    I could see Obama flipping some McCain states with Gnewt as his opponent.

  59. 59.

    Elizabelle

    January 21, 2012 at 11:12 am

    @dmsilev:

    GOP debate Monday night.

    State of the Union Tuesday night.

    Compare and contrast, class.

  60. 60.

    dmsilev

    January 21, 2012 at 11:17 am

    @Cacti: There was a poll recently showing Obama beating Newt by a few points in Texas. If the GOP nominates someone who is so radioactive that Texas is a swing state, then it’s safe for Michelle Obama to start shopping for a gown for the re-inauguration balls.

  61. 61.

    Jeffro

    January 21, 2012 at 11:17 am

    @Linda Featheringill: Between all of Herman Cain’s characteristics being 9s, and Newt’s deity being “butter”, I think I’m going to need my split sides repaired. =)

  62. 62.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 11:18 am

    @pamelabrown: Argh, I hate robo-calls with a thousand degree passion. I feel sorry for you. With the campaign clown parade coming, it will probably be 2 an hour. Every hour.

  63. 63.

    Elizabelle

    January 21, 2012 at 11:25 am

    Al Giordano’s got a post up on Newt Gingrich.

    http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/

  64. 64.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 11:28 am

    Perry’s standing diminished in Texas

    The aforementioned poll had Obama ahead of Gingrich by 2% in Texas, and if Obama is gifted with him as an opponent, he could get outside the margin of error. But notice the trends in the polling. Dems are getting closer, and in a few cycles under the right opponent, Texas could swing in the Presidential.

  65. 65.

    RalfW

    January 21, 2012 at 11:28 am

    Santorum’s “tie” in Iowa gets a lot more interesting if/when Gnewt wins tonight.

    Santorum is still SOL, but we go from “No GOP candidate has swept the first three states since…” to “One each for Frothy, Flippy and philandery.”

    Very different race tomorrow morning on the bobblehead shows.

  66. 66.

    dmbeaster

    January 21, 2012 at 11:31 am

    Figure this. Four years ago, Obama v. Clinton was a primary thrill ride that energized the Democratic party, and contributed to 2008 glory (PUMA’s notwithstanding).

    Now, the mere possibility of a similar primary battle seems to spell doom for the Republicans. Is it just because the candidates are so crappy, or is does it have more to do with the Republican authoritarian streak that finds elections messy? Oh, just give us dear leader and tell us what to do!

    When was the last time a meaningful primary season for Republicans continued after South Carolina?

  67. 67.

    Cacti

    January 21, 2012 at 11:32 am

    @dmsilev:

    There was a poll recently showing Obama beating Newt by a few points in Texas. If the GOP nominates someone who is so radioactive that Texas is a swing state, then it’s safe for Michelle Obama to start shopping for a gown for the re-inauguration balls

    With Gnewt on the opposing ticket, I don’t think 400 electoral votes would be an unrealistic expectation for team Obama.

  68. 68.

    Pangloss

    January 21, 2012 at 11:39 am

    Newt is not on the ballot in Virginia, Missouri, and several other states. All a victory in SC will do is prolong the primary a few weeks longer.

  69. 69.

    feebog

    January 21, 2012 at 11:52 am

    I dunno, maybe we should look ahead and see what states come up after Florida:

    February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)

    February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)

    February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
    Minnesota (caucus)
    Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri

    February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
    Michigan (primary)

    March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)

    March 6, 2012
    (Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus)
    Georgia (primary)
    Idaho (caucus)
    Massachusetts (primary)
    North Dakota (caucus)
    Ohio (primary)
    Oklahoma (primary)
    Tennessee (primary)
    Vermont (primary)
    Virginia (primary

    I can see the Mittster taking Nevada and Maine and taking back the big MO. Now look at the Super Tuesday states on March 6. Only two southern states besides Virgina, where Noot is not on the ballot. Mitt takes Mass, Vermont and Virgina without question. Add Ohio, which is the only other state with a large number of delegates, and the Romneytron 3000 starts to look a whole lot better. Yes, Noot can hang in there for a long while, but I still like Romney’s chances over the entire course.

  70. 70.

    CarolDuhart2

    January 21, 2012 at 11:56 am

    How many of the not-on-the ballot states have writeins?
    I can’t see caucus states going for Newt, but who knows, maybe he can gin up protest votes somehow. And I’m wondering, what if the agitation dredges up something about Romney that forces him to quit? Romney’s getting it from all sides now and with a bigger and stronger spotlight on him.

  71. 71.

    lol

    January 21, 2012 at 12:06 pm

    A commenter at TPM had a great suggestion for Newt on Monday. The moment Romney opens up about ethics charges, Newt tells him “I’ll give you a copy of the report right now” (since it’s already public) “and we’ve even made a copy in FRENCH for you too.”

    Crowd will go wild for that type of shit.

  72. 72.

    Villago Delenda Est

    January 21, 2012 at 12:22 pm

    @lol:

    Yeah, that would play very well with the Southern idiot crowd that Noot appeals to most.

  73. 73.

    harlana

    January 21, 2012 at 12:25 pm

    @Linda Featheringill: I am late coming back to this, but thanks for your inquiry. I’m out of ideas, activism for myself is too painful as I don’t know how to restrain my passion. I think a lot of Dems just think SC is a lost cause, and who can blame them?

  74. 74.

    Samara Morgan

    January 21, 2012 at 12:26 pm

    @feebog: Romney will fail in Colorado.
    We have two population demes that hate teh polygs.
    Deme one….Focus on the Family and evangelicals.
    Deme two…everyone else who isnt a mormon.
    ;)

  75. 75.

    harlana

    January 21, 2012 at 12:27 pm

    @lol: what, what? another debate Monday??

  76. 76.

    wrb

    January 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    Ha.

    I called it weeks ago.

    Only Newt has a bod admired in the Krispy Kreme states.

    Arugula-eating Massachusetts metrosexual never had a chance.

  77. 77.

    harlana

    January 21, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    what, what? another debate Monday??

    this whole race is turning me into an alcoholic; debate drinking games (alternately, getting drunk and screaming at the teevee), beer or champagne-soaked celebrations of the implosion of the republican party, etc.!

  78. 78.

    Hal

    January 21, 2012 at 12:37 pm

    This is all temporary. Newt has no fucking chance of winning the Presidency, and please, no one say “That’s what they said about Reagan!” Not the same thing.

  79. 79.

    wrb

    January 21, 2012 at 12:39 pm

    @Hal:

    Newt has no fucking chance of winning the Presidency

    That’s what makes it delightful that he has any chance of winning the nomination.

  80. 80.

    Cermet

    January 21, 2012 at 12:41 pm

    I can’t believe I’m saying this but I almost feel sorry for romney the 0.01 percenter – he will never go where that steaming pile of shit newt is going in the Confederated States of lets return Slavery and drag out all the southern hatred of Blacks – that is one sick pile or worthless sinking shit called newt (partly correct considering what a cold blooded slime he is) – who ever votes for that pile of shit newt is just as bad, if not worse.

    What is really sick is that the media isn’t highlighting this and calling that animal out the way it should – unbelievable.

  81. 81.

    Mino

    January 21, 2012 at 12:42 pm

    @beltane: I think Chuck Grassly wants to round up all the children under 16 and put them in the fields. The poor ones, of course.

  82. 82.

    EconWatcher

    January 21, 2012 at 1:06 pm

    @Hal:

    Extremely unlikely? Yes. More unlikely than Reagan? Yes. Yes, of course. But are the chances completely negligible? No.

    The truth is, the economy is once again hanging by a thread, and really always has been since 2008. Even if Europe has a meltdown and takes us down with them, I’d still put Obama’s chances of beating Newt at better than even (unlike with Romney).

    But never underestimate people’s capacity to do something crazy if they’re desperate. And one of the lessons of history is that things can go from seemingly normal to desperate in the blink of an eye.

    I’m rooting for Newt to stay in this a while and keep bringing the hurt to Mitt, particularly if he stays on Bain and the tax returns. But I sure don’t want him to win the nom. That’s too close–way too close–for comfort.

    That man would destroy what’s left of this country. I have no doubt of it at all.

  83. 83.

    OzoneR

    January 21, 2012 at 2:28 pm

    @feebog: PPP just posted that they’re finding Newt up big in Minnesota.

    I think a big Newt win in SC wins in Florida- its only 10 days later. Nevada and Maine are pretty safely Romney (if its not, then he’s at the point where he’s nearing dropping out), but if Newt is doing well in Minnesota, then I don’t know what to expect in Colorado and don’t think Mitt can win Ohio.

    Tough primary battles can win you elections in open years (2000 Republican, 2008 Democrat) but not in incumbent years- there it kills you.

  84. 84.

    OzoneR

    January 21, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    @dmbeaster: The dynamics of the 2008 Democratic race were different. Both candidates were popular in the party. They couldn’t decide between two choices they wanted.

    The GOP candidates are not popular, they can’t decide which of the ones they don’t want they’re willing to run with.

    Proof- the Democratic race from day one was Hillary vs. Obama. How many leaders have the GOP had in the last year?

  85. 85.

    OzoneR

    January 21, 2012 at 2:35 pm

    @EconWatcher: The biggest difference here is that Reagan was popular in 1980, Newt is not.

  86. 86.

    ThresherK

    January 21, 2012 at 2:51 pm

    @CarolDuhart2: he could get outside the margin of error. But notice the trends in the polling

    Remember (and this is good advice for every cycle) the margin of error isn’t the margin of error.

    A poll putting Obama up 2% over Gingrich in Texas, with a 3% MoE, doesn’t mean they’re neck and neck. According to the number crunchers (who should be all over my TV from now til election nite, no?), the probability that Obama is ahead of Gingrich is 75%.

    I don’t know the math, buth have been referring to this chart: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/blogphotos/Blog_MOE.gif

    (Regular caveats about preference polls apply, etc.)

  87. 87.

    Moe

    January 21, 2012 at 4:42 pm

    If anyone is interested the margin of error is the margin of error because margin of error has a specific meaning for surveys! See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error and more generally
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval for some pictures and math.

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