Nate Silver’s forecasts give Newt an 82% chance of winning in South Carolina, with an 8 point margin over Romney.
Much of the reason for the relatively clear lead for Mr. Gingrich is that he has very clear momentum in the race. In a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, for instance, Mr. Gingrich led Mr. Romney by 4 percentage points in interviews conducted on Wednesday night, based on a detailed break-out of nightly results provided to FiveThirtyEight by Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. But Mr. Gingrich’s lead expanded to 6 points in interviews conducted on Thursday. And Mr. Gingrich led by 14 points in about 700 interviews conducted on Friday night, which postdated the Thursday night debate in North Charleston, and the interview given to ABC News by one of Mr. Gingrich’s ex-wives.
In primaries, especially in the early-voting states, momentum is a strong predictor of the results, and it is usually correct to give considerable weight to the most recent data.
In other words, there’s a good chance that Newt could crush Romney in South Carolina. I really wouldn’t be surprised to see Newt win most of the Southern primaries. No one else in the field can bitch slap reporters like the former Speaker, and he has no peer in race baiting. Plus, he’s not a Mormon.
MattF
Oh, boy. Rough beast slouches towards Bethlehem, et cetera.
magurakurin
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!!! FOR HILLARY!!!!
brettvk
Sweet suffering Joseph Smith. Could the Mittster actually lose the nom to a POS like Gingrich?
brettvk
As awful as the current reality is and and as awful as the consequences could be — I have to say, this year is shaping up to be a political junkie’s wet dream.
CarolDuhart2
So if this does happen, does Newt become the nominee? Or do we go to a brokered convention and a consensus candidate/slate/?
Should a brokered convention happen, two people I would keep an eye on: Ron Paul and Romney. Ron Paul is on a crusade, not a push for the nomination, so he will stay in the race to the end and have a fair number of delegates. Romney has at least a path to money needed. Could the deal be a newcomer/either of these guys in exchange for delegates and money to run? I would think if such a deal materialized it would be newcomer/Romney. Romney is younger and has more money, and despite his many flaws, at least he won’t embarass the ticket too much due to scandal.
In such a scenario too, it probably wouldn’t be too much to realize that the Presidency would be out of reach for 2012, and that the real game is defending Congress.
Downpuppy
It kida depends on whether Romeny has paid ES&S. Otherwise, Alvin Greene could pull another one.
cmorenc
Even with a big win in SC, whose GOP demographics are about as favorable to Newt as he could wish for, Florida will be a different sort of challenge. Big sections of the northern third of the state are culturally similar to the low country of South Carolina, but the further south you go into Florida, the less “southern” the demographics and culture become and the more it becomes yankee and midwestern expatriates and the ethnic mix becomes less like South Carolina. In Florida, it will be more of a battle of ideological preferences and generic trust in character (Newt’s flaws vs Romney’s flaws). Gingrich may still gain some advantage coming off an SC win, but it’s highly misleading to simply think that because SC and Florida are both “southern” states, a win in SC means Gingrich will do similarly well in similar political demographics. This assumption simply isn’t true, because Florida isn’t a true southern state, not now, nor was it ever (except for northernmost Florida).
Downpuppy
I miss you, edit function! Please come back.
Gin & Tonic
Remember when all of Newt’s staff quit and he was a dead man walking? Good times.
Cat Lady
If Mittens wasn’t such a lying smarmy entitled fuquwad whose face needs a fist in it, I’d almost start feeling sorry for him. He chose to lie down with dogs. He chose poorly.
Elizabelle
I am thinking Newt is a recruiter’s dream.
For voters who cannot wait to vote for Obama.
brettvk
@cmorenc: As well, I seem to recall that earlier on it looked like Newt was just running to hawk his books, because he hadn’t bothered to set up the state-by-state infrastructure a serious bid needed. He won’t be on the Virginia ballot, f’instance. Does a late surge make state committees magically appear?
CarolDuhart2
True. Florida is less culturally Southern. But we’re talking about the Republican primary. Most of the culturally diverse folks are Democrats who won’t be participating in it. So Newt could win again-except for the fact he has no organization and probably not enough money for the needed media and ground game. Romney could hold on simply because of the fact that he could afford Florida’s high media costs.
The rest of the South looks better for Newt: Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, and even Kentucky. A sweep of these states and Newt is sitting pretty. The problem will be everywhere else where a bombastic approach doesn’t work very well, and even bigots prefer a more nuanced appeal. It will be where media is expensive and campaigning also expensive. Which is why most folks think a bloodied Mittens will pull it out in the end.
Mino
I don’t see any way the GOP runs Newt for Pres. They’d Oswald him themselves.
harlana
@Gin & Tonic: isn’t that something – i still can hardly believe it – but apparently the race-baiting is really paying off in SC – i’m really ashamed of my state and these disgusting spectacles – THANKS GUYS! I’M EMBARRASSED AS FUCK!
as the same time, mix it up republicans, the end result, whatever it may be will benefit Obama enormously
and the implosion is a thing of beauty
Samara Morgan
paging suzanne and the BJ morals police!
mixie said the M word!
hahaha
Amir Khalid
@brettvk:
Noot can definitely force Mitt to work for it. Mitt will resent that more and more over the primary season. And even if Mitt ends up with the nomination, half a year of Noot provoking him is bound to be entertaining, besides yielding many many more opportunities for Mitt to insert foot in mouth.
Also too, a Republican primary season of uncertainty thanks to the lack of a clear leader is just what commenters here are wishing for. And seeing a wish come true is always wonderful, n’est-ce pas?
harlana
the tears and anguish of the likes of Erick Erickson make it all worth it
merrinc
Concise and dead-on. Balloon-Juice Front Pagers: Cutting Through the Bullshit since 2002.
amk
@CarolDuhart2: willard is a scandal by himself.
Elizabelle
Any guesses on how Colbert will fare?
MikeBoyScout
Schadenfreude. Delicious schadenfreude.
JPL
@harlana: The NYTimes had a reporter in a household in SC during the debate. Are the whites in SC incapable of hard work? Talk about a poor work ethic.. (sarcasm)
CarolDuhart2
@amk:
I’m thinking compared to Paul or Newt. Williard might be a cold, offshoring, tighty, but compared to race-baiting Newt, or ancient, creaking, crabby Paul of the newsletters, he’s better. Plus he comes with money, instead of costing money like the other two.
I’m
EconWatcher
What happened to the frothy guy? If he drops out, the Mittster will be in a world of hurt, even more than now.
Mino
@JPL: Immigration from Mexico has slowed to a trickle. Wait til nest year’s crop season to hear the screams.
dmsilev
A couple of things come to mind. First, Mittens is vacillating about whether to show up for a debate scheduled for Monday. If he does pull out, and if the debate goes on, that’s killer. Gingrich gets to stand there and say “I beat Romney in South Carolina and now he’s apparently too frightened to face me directly”. About the only worse thing Romney could do is release a video of him bathing in a tub filled with $100 bills.
Secondly, Josh Marhsall posted this yesterday. For the country as a whole, Newt Gingrich currently has a 59% unfavorable rating and steadily getting worse. A Gingrich nomination, or even an extended period in which the GOP is identified with Gingrich, is a dream come true for the Obama team.
Davis X. Machina
Catholic, Mormon, Mormon, Catholic. Won’t matter a bit.
All those Evangelical-Dominionist-Christianist folks are just waiting to see which white guy they vote for. After climbing over broken glass to do so.
Religion isn’t going to actually matter in the general election. Not this time, not with a colored man in the White House in esse, and not just in posse.
The antebellum period has more than a few examples of religious organizations — including the Baptists splitting along regional (i.e. racial) grounds. I can’t remember a single example of an abolitionist group — or a white-supremacy one — fracturing along denominational grounds.
Remember, this is America, where it’s always 1860.
Davis X. Machina
@Davis X. Machina: Should be a closing double dash in there: “The antebellum period has more than a few examples of religious organizations—including the Baptists–splitting along regional (i.e. racial) grounds.”
Where’d the edit function go?
merrinc
@JPL:
This is absolutely correct. I’ve lived in NC since 1985 and can tell you that the immigrants, illegal or otherwise, are doing jobs no white folks will do. Mowing grass and edging in 100 degree heat with humidity so thick you could cut it? That kind of work, my friends, is apparently a job only for Mexicans.
Farmers in GA and AL are already whining about how those states’ new immigration laws are impeding their ability to plant and sow crops. But we’re Americans, and in this case, southern Americans, so it will take a whole lot longer for us to make a connection between cause and effect.
brettvk
@dmsilev: Mitt really can’t blow off debates, win or lose SC, especially so if Newt really starts scoring. Even low-information voters would notice Mitt if he looks to be turning yellow.
Raven
@merrinc: White folks? How bout “any folks”?
Amir Khalid
Is Mitt dumb enough to concede the Monday debate by a walkover? I can just imagine Noot, Mr Frothy, and Uncle Ron glancing at his empty lectern. I can see the damning image in Tuesday’s TV stories. I can picture editorial cartoons with Mitt in a chicken suit.
dmsilev
@brettvk: Agreed. If he really doesn’t want to do the debate, his only option is to hope that NBC cancels it. If there’s a debate and he isn’t there, it’s horrible for him.
beltane
@Mino: The solution to unharvested crops is to recruit gangs of teabaggers to work the fields. Let’s see the stuff these hard-working white people are really made of. I suspect they’re made of lard, sweat, and indolence but we shall see.
JPL
@Raven: The post was in response to mine at 23 and it had to do with the whites and work ethic. (sarcasm)
brettvk
@dmsilev: I’m willing to believe that the Villagers and their corporate masters are prepared to be very cordial to Mitt, but I’d be surprised if they’d be so cooperative as to cancel one or more debates just for his convenience. (Wouldn’t cancelling one bring the whole schedule down? Why would Mitt do any more ever?)
JPL
@beltane: Newt can lead the way.
Raven
@JPL: That’s what I get for not reading the entire thread before I open my big fat mouth. I’m in trouble on Facebook for trying to inject humor into the anti-Walmart brawl over here.
Linda Featheringill
Morning, folks.
You may have already seen this but I’ll throw it out anyway. These are the GOP candidates as Dungeons and Dragons characters.
http://www.funnyordie.com/lists/e0cb0351f6/presidential-candidates-explained-through-dungeons-and-dragons-character-sheets
Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)
@merrinc:
I laughed my fucking ass off this past summer when the Vidalia onion farmers in south Georgia (my home state) were screaming about not being able to harvest their crops because the migrant workers were avoiding Georgia and its new, draconian immigration law. It was only then that Gov. Nathan Deal – who is exactly what you’d imagine the governor of Georgia being like – said that he wanted to “gather more data.”
So it’s more than not understanding cause and effect. It’s more like standing the old saying about “Measure twice, cut once” on its head.
Mike in NC
@MikeBoyScout:
Can we coin a new term: SchadenMitt ?
WereBear
@beltane: Lard, sweat, and indolence is my new favorite band name.
I think they do hybrid polka/punk, but it’s a slippery taxonomy.
JPL
@Raven: That’s me and why I started putting (sarcasm) next to comments. Bozo boortz uses work ethic so often, I want to scream. Actually, I just turned him off.
I have buds on my daffodils…
Schlemizel
Despite his huge negatives the slimy amphibian scares me more than the rest of the clown car. You can see the press warming up to Gore Willard & that would be a pleasant thing to watch. But Salamander is labeled a genius by the steno pool and you saw how well he plays them. They would let him turn all his negatives into their fault or good things.
I hope he continues to vex Willard and goading him into more stupid sound bites but I hope he does not win.
Raven
@JPL: I tune in to Boortz at noon because I love the way Jamie Dupree throws cold water on his bullshit.
Linda Featheringill
@JPL: #23
Maybe. Or maybe these people are aware of just how hard some of that work is.
Back on the farm in hot-and-humid country, many long years ago in my youth, we worked in the fields but it was nothing like what is expected of commercial farm workers. We did it in a split shift: About 5:00 to 9:00 in the morning and again about 5:00 to 9:00 in the evening, with serious siesta time in between.
I have no idea what it would be like to work in the fields all day, every day. Horrible to even think about.
Raven
@JPL: And I actually went back and said that after I posted a Diane Keaton quote from Love and Death on the thread and my FB friend thought I was serious about her being “jejune’!
Linda Featheringill
@harlana: #15
Good morning.
You have my sympathy. Being sane and intelligent in the middle of a bunch of stupid idiots can really make you feel left out of things.
I personally think we should be helping the Dems in SC and a few other places where they need all the encouragement they could get. But I don’t know how to go about doing that. Do you have any ideas?
Evolving Deep Southerner (tense changed for accuracy)
@Linda Featheringill: Well I just moved from South Carolina, and when I talk to not just Democrats, but thinking people of any stripe who still live there, I recommend that they move to another state if they’re able. So I guess that’s encouragement of a sort.
redshirt
Let me surprisingly be the first to say to ”
Newt on Top”.
Ewwww. No thanks.
pamelabrown
@CarolDuhart2: As a Floridian, I think Mitt’s deep pockets will help. In the last 2 days, we’ve had 3 pro-Romney robo-calls.
Cacti
Looking forward to the confederate voters giving Romneybot a big, southern-fried middle finger.
Go Gnewt! Brokered convention!
Villago Delenda Est
So, what ever happened to Veritas/RealityCheck and his shouts of VICTORY! and UNLIMITED CASH!? Looks like OvenMitt is in a world of hurt, out-ni*CLANG*ed by the vile amphibian.
As seen in the newer thread, the loathsome Krauthammer creature is also having a serious sad about this entire thing, and yeah, my Schadenfreude meter is again twitching like mad at the pegged out end of the dial.
chopper
@Mike in NC:
SchadenFraud?
dmsilev
@brettvk: Apparently, the Romney campaign has seen the obvious and have confirmed that he will be present at the Monday debate.
Get the popcorn ready; it’s going to be an amusing ride.
dmsilev
@Villago Delenda Est:
Well, you know how it is. His division wasn’t meeting the performance metrics that the new management put in place, and it is of course necessary to trim the fat in order to meet quarterly goals, so I’m sad to say that he’s been laid off by TrollCo.
Cacti
@Schlemizel:
I don’t fear Gnewt at all as a POTUS candidate. He would be a 2012 Goldwater. He has sub-20 favorable ratings with women and independents, plus a tendency to frequently say things that remind people what an asshole he is (i.e. fire janitors and make poor kids clean schools!).
I could see Obama flipping some McCain states with Gnewt as his opponent.
Elizabelle
@dmsilev:
GOP debate Monday night.
State of the Union Tuesday night.
Compare and contrast, class.
dmsilev
@Cacti: There was a poll recently showing Obama beating Newt by a few points in Texas. If the GOP nominates someone who is so radioactive that Texas is a swing state, then it’s safe for Michelle Obama to start shopping for a gown for the re-inauguration balls.
Jeffro
@Linda Featheringill: Between all of Herman Cain’s characteristics being 9s, and Newt’s deity being “butter”, I think I’m going to need my split sides repaired. =)
CarolDuhart2
@pamelabrown: Argh, I hate robo-calls with a thousand degree passion. I feel sorry for you. With the campaign clown parade coming, it will probably be 2 an hour. Every hour.
Elizabelle
Al Giordano’s got a post up on Newt Gingrich.
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/
CarolDuhart2
Perry’s standing diminished in Texas
The aforementioned poll had Obama ahead of Gingrich by 2% in Texas, and if Obama is gifted with him as an opponent, he could get outside the margin of error. But notice the trends in the polling. Dems are getting closer, and in a few cycles under the right opponent, Texas could swing in the Presidential.
RalfW
Santorum’s “tie” in Iowa gets a lot more interesting if/when Gnewt wins tonight.
Santorum is still SOL, but we go from “No GOP candidate has swept the first three states since…” to “One each for Frothy, Flippy and philandery.”
Very different race tomorrow morning on the bobblehead shows.
dmbeaster
Figure this. Four years ago, Obama v. Clinton was a primary thrill ride that energized the Democratic party, and contributed to 2008 glory (PUMA’s notwithstanding).
Now, the mere possibility of a similar primary battle seems to spell doom for the Republicans. Is it just because the candidates are so crappy, or is does it have more to do with the Republican authoritarian streak that finds elections messy? Oh, just give us dear leader and tell us what to do!
When was the last time a meaningful primary season for Republicans continued after South Carolina?
Cacti
@dmsilev:
With Gnewt on the opposing ticket, I don’t think 400 electoral votes would be an unrealistic expectation for team Obama.
Pangloss
Newt is not on the ballot in Virginia, Missouri, and several other states. All a victory in SC will do is prolong the primary a few weeks longer.
feebog
I dunno, maybe we should look ahead and see what states come up after Florida:
I can see the Mittster taking Nevada and Maine and taking back the big MO. Now look at the Super Tuesday states on March 6. Only two southern states besides Virgina, where Noot is not on the ballot. Mitt takes Mass, Vermont and Virgina without question. Add Ohio, which is the only other state with a large number of delegates, and the Romneytron 3000 starts to look a whole lot better. Yes, Noot can hang in there for a long while, but I still like Romney’s chances over the entire course.
CarolDuhart2
How many of the not-on-the ballot states have writeins?
I can’t see caucus states going for Newt, but who knows, maybe he can gin up protest votes somehow. And I’m wondering, what if the agitation dredges up something about Romney that forces him to quit? Romney’s getting it from all sides now and with a bigger and stronger spotlight on him.
lol
A commenter at TPM had a great suggestion for Newt on Monday. The moment Romney opens up about ethics charges, Newt tells him “I’ll give you a copy of the report right now” (since it’s already public) “and we’ve even made a copy in FRENCH for you too.”
Crowd will go wild for that type of shit.
Villago Delenda Est
@lol:
Yeah, that would play very well with the Southern idiot crowd that Noot appeals to most.
harlana
@Linda Featheringill: I am late coming back to this, but thanks for your inquiry. I’m out of ideas, activism for myself is too painful as I don’t know how to restrain my passion. I think a lot of Dems just think SC is a lost cause, and who can blame them?
Samara Morgan
@feebog: Romney will fail in Colorado.
We have two population demes that hate teh polygs.
Deme one….Focus on the Family and evangelicals.
Deme two…everyone else who isnt a mormon.
;)
harlana
@lol: what, what? another debate Monday??
wrb
Ha.
I called it weeks ago.
Only Newt has a bod admired in the Krispy Kreme states.
Arugula-eating Massachusetts metrosexual never had a chance.
harlana
this whole race is turning me into an alcoholic; debate drinking games (alternately, getting drunk and screaming at the teevee), beer or champagne-soaked celebrations of the implosion of the republican party, etc.!
Hal
This is all temporary. Newt has no fucking chance of winning the Presidency, and please, no one say “That’s what they said about Reagan!” Not the same thing.
wrb
@Hal:
That’s what makes it delightful that he has any chance of winning the nomination.
Cermet
I can’t believe I’m saying this but I almost feel sorry for romney the 0.01 percenter – he will never go where that steaming pile of shit newt is going in the Confederated States of lets return Slavery and drag out all the southern hatred of Blacks – that is one sick pile or worthless sinking shit called newt (partly correct considering what a cold blooded slime he is) – who ever votes for that pile of shit newt is just as bad, if not worse.
What is really sick is that the media isn’t highlighting this and calling that animal out the way it should – unbelievable.
Mino
@beltane: I think Chuck Grassly wants to round up all the children under 16 and put them in the fields. The poor ones, of course.
EconWatcher
@Hal:
Extremely unlikely? Yes. More unlikely than Reagan? Yes. Yes, of course. But are the chances completely negligible? No.
The truth is, the economy is once again hanging by a thread, and really always has been since 2008. Even if Europe has a meltdown and takes us down with them, I’d still put Obama’s chances of beating Newt at better than even (unlike with Romney).
But never underestimate people’s capacity to do something crazy if they’re desperate. And one of the lessons of history is that things can go from seemingly normal to desperate in the blink of an eye.
I’m rooting for Newt to stay in this a while and keep bringing the hurt to Mitt, particularly if he stays on Bain and the tax returns. But I sure don’t want him to win the nom. That’s too close–way too close–for comfort.
That man would destroy what’s left of this country. I have no doubt of it at all.
OzoneR
@feebog: PPP just posted that they’re finding Newt up big in Minnesota.
I think a big Newt win in SC wins in Florida- its only 10 days later. Nevada and Maine are pretty safely Romney (if its not, then he’s at the point where he’s nearing dropping out), but if Newt is doing well in Minnesota, then I don’t know what to expect in Colorado and don’t think Mitt can win Ohio.
Tough primary battles can win you elections in open years (2000 Republican, 2008 Democrat) but not in incumbent years- there it kills you.
OzoneR
@dmbeaster: The dynamics of the 2008 Democratic race were different. Both candidates were popular in the party. They couldn’t decide between two choices they wanted.
The GOP candidates are not popular, they can’t decide which of the ones they don’t want they’re willing to run with.
Proof- the Democratic race from day one was Hillary vs. Obama. How many leaders have the GOP had in the last year?
OzoneR
@EconWatcher: The biggest difference here is that Reagan was popular in 1980, Newt is not.
ThresherK
@CarolDuhart2: he could get outside the margin of error. But notice the trends in the polling
Remember (and this is good advice for every cycle) the margin of error isn’t the margin of error.
A poll putting Obama up 2% over Gingrich in Texas, with a 3% MoE, doesn’t mean they’re neck and neck. According to the number crunchers (who should be all over my TV from now til election nite, no?), the probability that Obama is ahead of Gingrich is 75%.
I don’t know the math, buth have been referring to this chart: http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/blogphotos/Blog_MOE.gif
(Regular caveats about preference polls apply, etc.)
Moe
If anyone is interested the margin of error is the margin of error because margin of error has a specific meaning for surveys! See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error and more generally
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval for some pictures and math.