The first real primary where all the participants are members of the Republican Party base is done. Newt wins and the Mittens coronation tour is over. Trench warfare now begins.
Iowa and New Hampshire will let anybody in to play Republican-for-a-day and influence the results, but South Carolina is different and only the true faithful participate. South Carolina is to Wingnutopia what Mecca is to Islam. In this primary, the 27 percenters are a majority. South Carolina is a center of neo-Confederate thought and conspiracy theories about white victimhood at the hands of the Federal Government The Union are fed to the base from childhood.
Lee Atwater was from here and learned his political skills from Strom Thurmond who learned his trade from “Pitchfork” Ben Tillman who learned his world view as a Red Shirt night rider and a participant in the massacre of Freemen during the destruction of their settlement of Hamburg. From Tillman to DeMint there is a straight line of racism, white privileged and myths of white victimhood that informs the political DNA of South Carolina Republican Primary voters.
If you know that, then it cannot be a surprise at all that Newt Gingrich has surged in this state and that Romney and Santorum are viewed as Yankee copperhead carpetbaggers at best.
Newt knows how to talk the code and how to barely conceal his contempt for the Federal Government The Union and the descendants of people who were once property. He is especially good at code talking about President Obama and the Mainstream Yankee Press.
No surprise he is connecting with his tribe.
A week ago he was suppose to be a dead man walking, but he was able to claw back because he had a goal and a base that would get his back when he let out his Rebel yell. An aide described Newt’s goal to the WP:
“The goal is to get rid of Romney,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said. “Our goal is to remove Mitt Romney from the competitive ranks.”
Newt’s victory in South Carolina will go a long way towards meeting that goal. Yes, Romney has a lot of money and backing from the Party elites, but his doesn’t have the neo-Confederates and the 27 percenters who are the base of the Party–they belong to Newt. And if The Professor can mobilize them to his cause and raise some cash, Romney will stand as much of a chance against Gingrich as Mike Castle had against Christine O’Donnell.
Good luck with that November.
Cheers
Mustang Bobby
Listening to Mitt’s speech in S.C. Damn, what a lying sack of dog shit. So, when will he go all Newt race-baiting to win?
lamh35
Yeah, this is certainly NOT a “Yes We Can” speech is it.
Romney sticking to his attack Obama schidt too.
That’s the problem Mittens…YOU ARE NOT THE NOMINEE YET.
Dude doesn’t look like a fighter up there.
Try watching him without the sound guys. He looks like he’s been crying and he looks damn near defeated.
Compared to Obama after his big defeat in New Hampshire Romney kinda looks like weak dweeb.
JPL
I don’t see how Newt wins. His code words just don’t play that well in California and the North East. When you look at the primary calendar how does he do it? Now I do think he wounds Romney which is good news but Romney wounds himself. His concession speech was awful.
Zagloba
I even wonder how well Newt’s version of the Republican Party is consistent with the self-image of your average peckerwood here in TN, or the rest of the South. I really think that kind of thing could backfire on the GOP, to the tune of desolidifying the South.
Veritas
Plan “A” was to win the nomination with the one-two knockout punch of IA/NH victories to spring into South Carolina.
Tomorrow, Plan “B” goes into effect instead, starting with Firewall Florida and more Super PAC advertising.
Hmmm, I wonder if Karl Rove could be persuaded to come on board?
Romney is in it for the long haul, with the organization, the ground game, the money, the insider support, and Super PAC cash, meanwhile Newt can’t even get on the ballot in all 50 states.
Who would YOU bet on?
RealityCheck
JGabriel
Short SC GOP Electorate: If we can’t beat Obama, at least we can go down ugly.
.
dmsilev
With 21% of the vote counted, Newt has a 15 point lead over the Rombot. I’m sure that this will, in Newt’s mind, validate his approach towards Romney. Monday’s debate will be highly highly amusing.
PeakVT
What happened to the other Catholic Evangelical? He’s gotta be a tad disappointed tonight.
Yutsano
@Veritas:
A brokered convention. Newt’s gonna get pretty much all the delegates in the South and possibly the Midwest. And Willard looks terrible right now going into Florida. Which is also a closed primary.
BruceFromOhio
All they know is how to destroy shit. Not to build, or lead, or govern, or help anyone but their own Gaia-damned sorry ass twisted motherfucking two-bit criminal selves. Each and every single one is the demonstrative anti-leader.
Let them bloody each other in public, sure. The challenge is overcoming the blind hatred, fear and destruction wrought by the faithful in the their wake. Sure its fun while the mob tears at itself! But… one day they wake up and take up the torches and pitchforks against everyone else.
lamh35
I can no longer look at Ron Paul without hearing Stephen Colbert say on Morning Joe:
“ya know if you say Ron Paul’s real name he HAS to teach you how to spin hay into gold!”
LOL!
donovong
SC is an open primary. Anybody can vote.
Villago Delenda Est
@Veritas:
I’ll bet against the loser you’re betting on, dumbfuck.
I’ll win.
tc
The head of Gingrich’s SuperPAC is giving the former speaker credit for the gains that happened under the Clinton administration. But if that’s his logic, then isn’t Speaker Boehner equally responsible for whatever the Republicans are complaining about now?
JGabriel
@JPL:
If the GOP base subconsciously knows they can’t win (they would never consciously admit it to themselves), then they may choose to make the race as ugly and bigoted as possible.
In that scenario, Gingrich has a shot.
.
Chris from Arlington, VA
Agree with you on the basis of Newt’s surge in South Carolina.
But did you mean “Strom Thurmond?” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strom_Thurmond
Veritas
@Yutsano:
You’re living in fantasyland. Gingrich can’t win any of the BIG winner take all states–California, New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, and yes, Florida. Newt can’t compete in ANY of those.
dmsilev
@PeakVT: Unfortunate Google Problem appears to be hanging on to third place, which is a shame. I was kind of hoping that he’d place fourth and be forced to drop out.
PeakVT
adding… All those fundy leaders who backed him don’t look so hot right now, either.
Also, too: 100 quatloos to anyone who can fix teh the edit button.
Lojasmo
@Veritas:
LOL. I would bet on a sitting president.
Roast you in november, bitch.
Donut
Dennis, I will say again, I didn’t think Newt would have any legs until you made a post describing him as the perfect combination of all the sickness we’ve seen out of the GOP in the last 30 years. Major props to you for calling his longevity in this race. I have never been convinced Romney had anything locked in, and yet, I still am not totally sure that Newt can really go all the way to get the nomination. I can buy a scenario where we see a brokered convention and Paul and/or Palin are in as conservative third and/or fourth party options…Anyway, since you lined it out, I have always believed that Newt would be a complete nuisance to Romney and a bad, bad spoiler in the Southern states. It remains to be seen how he will play in other regions of the country. Even though the GOP is greatly diminished as a real force in other parts of the country, the non-Southern states still have the same number of delegates.
Jeebus, this seems like the first time in a long time that regional factionalism is really going to play a significant role in presidential politics.
JGabriel
Veritas:
You said Romney would win IA, NH, and SC. But he didn’t!
You lied to us and destroyed our hopes and dreams! How will we ever believe you again?
.
Lojasmo
@Veritas:
Hmm. Those all sound like very democratic states to me.
cmorenc
@Yutsano:
This may be the GOP establishment’s pipe dream if Gingrich continues to slice up Willard and amass a substantial number of delegates, but they’re going to find it extremely difficult to actually carry through brokering the nomination to someone who didn’t actually run in any of the primaries. Tea Party types who supported Newt will likely rebel at party elders telling them in effect that children, you had your fun now it’s time for the establishment adults in the room to make important decisions. Enough of them will either stay home in November or bolt to a third-party candidate to make the election a nightmare wipeout for the GOP. IMHO the GOP is stuck with whichever of the two, Willard or Newt, has the most delegates coming into the convention.
dmsilev
@JGabriel: Don’t worry. He’ll scatter some of that sweet Unlimited Corporate Cash around and we’ll all swoon with awe. It’ll be good; you’ll see.
Surreal American
@JGabriel:
Don’t exactly recall the time that we believed him before, but oh well.
JGabriel
@Veritas:
I assure you Newt can Pennsylvania. Maybe he wins it, maybe he don’t, but there’s a reason they it Pennsyltucky.
.
JGabriel
… call it Pennsyltucky.
(Please to be restoring editing, John Cole?)
.
lamh35
there has actually been no official announcement, just that John King’s heard from his “sources” that in FL Romney will have the endorsement of Jeb Bush.
So FL peeps how big of a deal will Jeb’s endorsement be?
And will Newt then attack on “Bush policies of the past” when it comes to Romney.
Like I said earlier though, so far Newt hasn’t had any real endorsements from the establishment. Romney’s picked up most of those and Newt still shellacked Romney in the “first conservative” primary contest.
Dennis G.
@Chris from Arlington, VA: Stupid typo on my part. Fixed. Thanks
dmbeaster
@JGabriel:
Marshall at TPM had an editorial on this, and how the 27% faction actually believes Gingrich can do it, as they think he’ll clean up in debates. So I really think this is up there with global warming denialism – you can’t tell the base that Gingrich cant win, as they just chose to believe he can. Its Faux News blowback – these people cant perceive reality.
lamh35
Oh good Lord, is Ron Paul STILL talking? He talked longer than Romney did and Romney probably came in 2nd.
Donut
@Yutsano:
I dunno, Yutsano, maybe, but I am not sure that Gingrich is really gonna play here in the Midwest. Maybe the Southern-connected portions of the Midwest, I will grant you. Southern IL, Southern OH, Southern IN, yes, culturally, that is his country…I can buy that, but not up here in Chicagoland, not in WI, not in MI, not really in IA (as we’ve seen already) or MN. In other words, East of the Mississippi, in the rust belt, he’s not gonna play as well as Romney with GOP voters. However, I would agree Gingrich might have more of a shot in Midwest states that are West of the Mississippi (MN excepted) – MO, KS, the Dakotas. I guess we shall see.
Old Dan and Little Ann
But Romney’s the only one who has ever won BOTH Iowa AND New Hampshire!
Chris
Schadenfreudy part of me is thrilled that Romney lost, and kind of hopes he goes on to lose the nomination. The guy really is the political version of a Winklevoss twin. Few people, even in national, Republican politics, are as badly in need of being slapped in the face with the fact that you can’t always get what you want, no matter how well-bred and rich your family may be.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmbeaster:
Sullivan said the same thing, and I think they’re right. Call it the Teleprompter Faction. They actually believe their own rhetoric about Obama being a simpleton who affirmative actioned and white guilted his way into the White House. That’s who Huckabee was babbling to last night about Obama’s grades. Newtie actually made a teleprompter joke in one of the fifteen debates of last week.
MildlyAmusedRainbowPerson
@Veritas:
I am betting on Obama. He’s got game. Mittens got nothing.
David Koch
Mittens still bumping up at his glass ceiling of 26% of the vote.
liberal
OT: who here knew that Santorum’s wife dated an outspoken abortionist for many years?
PreservedKillick
At some point, the GOP is going to realize that Fox news is their worst enemy. Fox has whipped their base into what can only be describe as insanity – and it is entirely *not* in Fox’s best interest for the republicans to be anything other than a vocal minority. It’s much better for ratings.
JPL
@dmbeaster: Sarah’s debate was awful and McCain was looking for Mr. Puddles and the networks called the debates as equal.
scav
Minor Huzzah! Cain’s ahead of Perry!
Donut
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Huckabee actually knows better. He is not a stupid man. A racist turd? Yup. But not stupid. If he was stupid, he’d be in the race right now.
dmsilev
@Old Dan and Little Ann:
Don’t forget the asterisk next to that Iowa “win”.
Martin
Ok. 40% for Newt.
These people aren’t electing a President. They’re electing a martyr. That’s the only thing that makes sense. SC voters know that Obama is going to win, so they’re going to advance the guy who will go down in the greatest ball of flames and glory, and if they’re really lucky, Newt will call the President a nigger on national tv.
lamh35
OMG! They all seem to be wearing sweater vest other than Santorum himself.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@JPL: and David Gregory said about an hour ago that Mitt Romney’s tax evasion is setting up the (I think I got this exactly): “class warfare debate president Obama wants”.
Donut
@efgoldman:
I know! That’s what makes this all so beautiful.
Zagloba
Um, all of us, like a week ago?
David Koch
the Exit Poll was amazingly accurate. It predicted the final margins 2 and 1/2 hours before the polls closed.
https://balloon-juice.com/2012/01/21/break-on-through-to-the-other-side/#comment-2998798
dmsilev
@scav:
It’s those damn SuperPAC ads; it’s all their fault.
Villago Delenda Est
Right now, the GOP primaries are about media momentum. Until Super Tuesday, there just aren’t that many actual voting at the convention delegates at stake.
So Romney’s still got a good shot at the nomination. After all, it’s just him and Ron Paul running in Virginia, due to Virginia’s oppressive laws that require nominees to do at least as much as Lyndon LaRouche did in 2008, which Newt could not do.
So talk of a brokered convention is Villager pr0n, at this point. Super Tuesday will give us a much better picture.
The problem for the OvenMittBot is that much of SuperTuesday is in the South, which hates Yankee carpetbagger scum, and loves them some dogwhistle with a klaxon Noot. Noot might get some actual convention delegate momentum going.
Surreal American
Mittens can barely find the court.
Name
Just because northern states are Democratic states doesn’t mean the state-level GOP are moderates. Remember, Delaware nominated O’Donnell last time around, and that’s a state where- outside of its Dixiecrat zone- the GOP controls about as much as the Libertarians control.
Gilles de Rais
@Veritas: Don’t care. I AM curious as to why you troll over at StarbucksGossip.com.
Emerald
@Veritas: Oh, I’m not sure Newt can’t win the R primary in California. We have some of the wingnuttiest wingers here. Free Republic is based in Fresno, and it’s gone all out for Newt.
“Decline to State” folks can vote in the primaries, though, so that might have an effect. Alsotoo, there is a hunk o’ time between now and then. Plenty of time for Newt to explode again.
Quarks
I kinda want to know who the reported 186 people who voted for Bachmann are…
…no, on second thought, I really don’t.
But go Cain! At this rate, you may just break 1% of the vote total. This is great news for Comedy Central.
Yutsano
@Donut:
I was thinking more Kansas/Missouri/Nebraska and the like. States with large fundie populations and little to no Mormon presence. Willard will be a tough sell there. Newton can do it better there I think.
Taylor
I assume the elites now have to take down Gingrich before he does any more damage to their chosen nominee. Easier said than done, the ABC hit job drew no obvious blood.
lamh35
Whoa, Newt Gingrich looks to have swept ALL 25 of SC delegates!!! Methinks Romney will have to start attacking Newt instead of Obama!
Donut
COLE! EDIT BUTTON?
@Donut:
What I wanted to edit and add is no one GOP candidate has a lock on this because these fuckers all have major problems specific to different regions. This is shaping up to be such a major clusterfuck, like we haven’t seen in looooong time in national politics. Democrats were divided in ’08, true, but not even remotely like this. I never doubted that our factions would unite under either Hillary or Barack. There are pratfalls for Obama out there, but the more the GOP cannot solidify, the worse this gets. Mittens is not improving as a candidate. He could still turn it around and find his legs again, but I dunno. He has had the kind of week that leads from bad to worse.
Chris
@BruceFromOhio:
Well… yes.
First time I ever heard fascism explained in the simplest way possible was (of course) on a Star Trek TOS episode, where the “Jew” bitterly tells the Enterprise crew that the “Nazis” on the planet need them, so that they’ll have someone to hate, because their entire system flies to pieces when they don’t have anyone to hate.
You see it played out it most nationalist/identity-politics-based movements on Earth in some way or other, and definitely with the American right wing. You saw it played out in the 1990s when the Soviet Union fell and quite a few of them were running around like chicken with their heads cut off looking for a new Great Bogeyman to fight. No big surprise that the same thing happens in intra-party disputes.
KG
@Emerald: If the nomination isn’t decided by June when we vote here in Cali… oh. my. gawd. Seriously, that would be an absolute nightmare.
Personally, I think there’s a long, long way to go now. Florida is important, but it’s only 50 delegates out of 1400+ needed.
Rick Santorum is actually talking a decent game about opportunity and education for all. It almost sounds reasonable. But I know too much about him to believe a word of it.
lamh35
Jeb Bush Not Endorsing Mitt Romney After All?
John King says “Curses…punked again!”
Donut
@Yutsano:
Gotcha now. And I agree with you.
Mustang Bobby
The Republican Party has broken out into assholes and shit itself to death.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Donut: I still think the haters will unite behind whoever wins the nom, Romney or Gingrich, but Gingrich is more obviously offensive to the mouth breathing low info voters known as “independents”
dmsilev
Various reports coming in saying that Jeb Bush has *not* endorsed Mitt Romney (or anyone else). And if Newt really did make a clean sweep of the delegates, he’s actually ahead of Romney there.
Martin
@efgoldman:
I think Newt believes himself to be larger than social norms. If he says it, says it with conviction and meaning, he believes he can get away with it.
I don’t think he’d do it, but I think he believes that if anyone can do it, it’s him.
jl
Who knows who will win the GOP primary. Probably Mitt, if his money and organization can sustain the trench warfare and siege operations long enough in big states.
But maybe the ugliness of the Newt campaign will bring out the GOP base for primaries and tip some races in states which we expect a saner and more moderate GOP primary turnout.
My favorite part of the post was ‘trench warfare’. Oh boy! GOP primary trench warfare! I can hardly wait.
World War I, seen from a long distance, has a certain dystopian romance about it, and WTF goes on in a GOP primary is a long distance from most sane humans.
So, the early old school futile cavalry charges of Perry and Cain are over. We are probably entering the phase of full frontal assaults in some big states with big reactionary GOP bases that might turn the election.
As the war grinds on, we will see massive ad assault artillery barrages, lighting the evening and early morning darkness with wave after wave of intellectual death. Brains will be destroyed without a visible mark, merely from the shock waves.
Towards the end, if Newt can hold on the massive siege lines of the Rom forces, deadly and deep long distance raids will attempt to punch through and spread panic and disorganization in the rear echelons.
Popcorn is probably not appropriate, but I will be watching the flickering news reels from the cratered GOP political moonscape, of lost patrols struggling up to their waists through mud and filth and lies, in horrified fascination.
There will be horrors, though. With Newt, massive poisonous gas attacks will be a standard tactic.
lamh35
OT, Reports on twitter are that Coach Joe Paterno has passed.
lamh35
Santorum is running for VP
Gust Avrakotos
You BJ masturbators are hilarious. Newt doesn’t have any hope of winning. You people just want to pretend it’s a horse race so you can keep the circle jerk going.
Seems like only yesterday you people were masturbating over Failin and Chump running. Also things any reasonable person knew was never going to happen.
Egg Berry
Wow, CNN’s map showed Newt taking nearly everywhere but Charleston and Columbia.
Donut
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
You’re probably right, but I would love to see them factionalized going into their convention and see one or two independent runners step up and keep them divided and suck off support from the eventual nominee. Maybe I’m just pipe dreaming on that, but I think it’s possible they won’t unite. They kinda have had problems with that this year…I don’t like absolute predictions, and I certainly don’t know anything more than anyone else…
Mnemosyne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
There is a certain percentage of white mean in this country who believe that it is literally impossible for any black man to be smarter than any white man. They genuinely think that every white guy walking around right now is smarter than Obama solely because of race.
That percentage is getting smaller and smaller all the time, but I suspect they’re mostly Republican voters.
Villago Delenda Est
@jl:
Trench warfare SUCKS. “Lousy” is a term that came about in part due to trench warfare.
Perfect metaphor for what the GOP primary process is going to be now. The Coronation Cavalcade has been waylaid, and derailed. Sucks to be you, OvenMittBot.
KG
@Martin: I could see him getting flustered when Obama gives him a rhetorical smack and Gingrich just saying something like that… maybe it won’t be the N-Bomb, but it could be something like McCain’s “that one.”
Rommie
Newt himself is the wildcard – he could easily insert foot in mouth and blow up all his gains.
If Romney shows up at any more debates, which he might not, then he better have a different game plan if he doesn’t want to get Newt-d again.
Nellcote
I think I just have to give up on ever understanding why candidate Obama’s comments about holding fast to guns and bibles is considered so offensive. I’ve always taken it as empathetic rather than mocking.
Judas Escargot
@Gust Avrakotos:
tl; dr. tbm.
marv
I just wanted to throw in my two cent’s worth, and hope it hasn’t been pointed out already. I used to hang out with good ol’ boys from the South in the old days, and they are generally a partriarchically loyal group, but the South Carolina boys most of all. Not that I think that’s a bad thing in itself at all, but the fact is nobody can say “my daddy” like a gamecock. I think it’s why they held on to the Confederate-flag thing for so long.So when John King threw down on Mitt’s father’s honor about tax returns and asked if Mitt would do the same, the single worst word Mitt could possibly say is: Maybe. MAYBE? About your daddy? I honestly don’t see how a self-respecting redneck could ever cast a vote for Romney.
rikyrah
bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
Yutsano
@Gust Avrakotos: Last time I checked Harper still had his majority. Why don’t you worry about your own country’s politics before bothering with ours? Hoser.
Yutsano
@Mnemosyne:
Do you mind if I salivate over this typo? :)
handsmile
Let it be noted that as of 9:00pm with 58% of the vote counted, Herman Cain/Stephen Colbert has more than twice the numbers of votes of Rick Perry!
In truth, this contest for 5th place in the South Carolina GOP primary is the only result I care about tonight.
KG
@Rommie: There’s no way that Romney can ignore the debates after losing tonight. If he’d have won, I could see that approach working. But now? No way, he’d get crushed in the media, on the blogs, and at the debates – if he can’t debate Gingrich and Santorum and Paul, then how can we expect him to debate Obama? If he gets rattled like this, how can we take him seriously as a president? That narrative would destroy his campaign, in a heartbeat.
Villago Delenda Est
Josh Marshal brings up an interesting point.
Here’s the thing: Noot may have won SC because he’s perceived as the guy who can best put that uppity ni*CLANG* in his place. Just as that woman praised Noot for putting that uppity Wan Williams in HIS place the other day.
Yes, they’re that fucking stupid, and racist. No doubt about it. It’s about getting the uppity ni*CLANG*. That’s what it’s about.
Villago Delenda Est
Josh Marshal brings up an interesting point.
Here’s the thing: Noot may have won SC because he’s perceived as the guy who can best put that uppity ni*CLANG* in his place in a debate. Just as that woman praised Noot for putting that uppity Wan Williams in HIS place the other day.
Yes, they’re that fucking stupid, and racist. No doubt about it. It’s about getting the uppity ni*CLANG*. That’s what it’s about.
Surreal American
@Mnemosyne:
There is a certain percentage of white mean in this country
Villago Delenda Est
Oh, I know this is shocking, but FYWP is behaving badly. I can’t tell anyone to nuke the duplicate above privately, since, AS HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS, the edit function is GONE.
Yes, I’m yelling.
dmsilev
So, I’m guessing maybe the Romney campaign is regretting running those ads which ended with the tagline “On Saturday, South Carolina picks a President”.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yutsano: I was wondering if Mnemo meant mean whites, or mean white men, cause like VDE said, there are a more than a few white women who hate Obama as much as their male neighbors and family members
Gust Avrakotos
@Villago Delenda Est: Just like they obsessed about putting those uppity Yankees in their place and their whole free the slaves nonsense.
The south loves to pick fights they can’t win. Fools.
Donut
@marv:
Nailed it, Marv. Exactly. Great point.
WeeBey
@Veritas:
Who would I bet on?
Obama.
Gilles de Rais
@marv: Great post. You can either say “Hell yeah, just like my daddy did” or “fuck that old boozing sonofabitch”, but you better show some respect either way, and not pretend like your daddy’s some kind of old news, because in the South, you are who your daddy is, like it or not.
Mnemosyne
@Yutsano:
@Surreal American:
I am going on record claiming it as a Freudian slip, not a typo. :-)
Villago Delenda Est
When they pray, they do so facing Fort Sumter.
Egg Berry
@jl: So it’s the Gallipoli nomination.
Elizabelle
@Nellcote:
It even sounds true, in addition to empathetic.
Mike in NC
What a fun day this has been. Watching “Ides of March” right now. Good stuff. I should buy some lottery tickets tomorrow.
Dennis G.
@marv: Good point
Mnemosyne
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I did mean “white men,” because the particular group I’m thinking of also thinks that there is no such thing as any woman who is smarter than any man, anywhere. As far as they were concerned, the Democratic primary of 2008 was like letting two dogs run for president.
Of course, I can’t discount the ability of my fellow white women to go along with utter bullshit like that, so I probably could have been inclusive.
Bondirotta
So Newt beat Mitt in every age group by kore than 10 points…. Even under 30-year olds!!!
Everyone know thinks Mitt is a loser and a wimp. His glow is gone.
Elizabelle
@lamh35:
re Paterno: sounds like he’s in bad shape.
WaPost has a rambling story online that sounds like it’s preparation for an obituary.
jl
@Egg Berry: I was thinking more along the lines of Verdun, but whatever.
May Newt do as much damage as he can while he lasts. I toast Newt’s victory.
I am immune to his gas attacks, so will what the can do to others out of my mind and enjoy them.
Go Newt!
If all this does is rattle Romney to his core and gives him opportunity to make a bigger ass of himself, and misspeak more attack ads against himself, that will be great.
JGabriel
@dmbeaster:
I just read the Josh Marshall comment you singled out, and, actually, I think Josh is saying much the same thing I am:
.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Mnemosyne: I do like “white mean” as a collective descriptor for the GOP primary voters, though.
JGabriel
@Mike in NC:
Let us know what you think when you finish watching it. I thought it started off strong for the first 45 minutes or so, but then descended into a pretty cliched disappointment instead of paying off the strong moments of its intro.
.
lamh35
Hmmm…anyone see Lawrence O’Donnell kind lay down the reality to Rachel Maddow on her continued effort to made the Ron Paul candidacy more important than it actually is in the GOP Primaries, not the issue Ron Paul talks about, but the actual voting that had gone on so far of which Ron Paul has NOT won more than 3 place.
It was pretty good
David Koch
Big winner of tonight’s primary: Obama.
WereBear (itouch)
@Mnemosyne: I read it as “white mean” without batting an eyelash. We are talking about a primary Newt won.
JGabriel
@Yutsano:
I’m not entirely sure that is a typo.
.
Villago Delenda Est
TPM is showing that SC is going solid Noot, except for Richland and Charleston counties. Columbia, the capital of SC, is in Richland County.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@lamh35: I wasn’t clear what point Rachel was trying to make, but I do think that if Paul weren’t in the race, Romney would be in even weaker shape. I think all three contests so far have been open (?) so I’m sure a lot of his voters wouldn’t have voted at all, the frat boys and the Glibertarians, but I suspect those that remain are what my father used to call aginners– whatever it is, they’re agin’ it–and would have voted for Noot just to stick it to the Man, and who’s more The Man than The Mitt.
Fun fact I found out to today, the Willard comes from George Romney’s best friend, John Willard Marriott, the hotelier.
dmsilev
@lamh35: Ron Paul did take 2nd in New Hampshire. Can’t argue with the larger point though.
Dennis G.
Newt chases his goal in FLA. The Miami Herald is reporting that Newt is going up with a Spanish language ad citing Mittens quote Castro:
If Newt makes in close in Florida–or wins–he will destroy Romney and then the Party elites will either have to learn to love the Professor. I don’t think Mittens has the backbone to match Newt blow for blow. We’ll see…
JGabriel
efgoldman:
Hell, I’ve been saying that since before the IA caucus. Here’s a comment from Dec. 29:
.
jl
@Dennis G.: Well, good. Let them tear each other apart with asinine smears. Fine with me. I like it.
butler
There it is, the old knee slapper about the teleprompter!
And they bark like fucking seals every time…
bondirotta
Just look at that fucking map.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/primary-tracker/South-Carolina/
Newt nearly won Charleston. 25 point margins in western counties.
He has eviscerated Mitt.
IM
Well, South Carolina once again lived up to its reputation.
dmsilev
@butler: It’s Pavlovian response. He just threw out “Alinsky’ as well. How long until we start hearing about William Ayers again?
David Koch
I love Newt — he’s code-talking a whole bunch of Jew baiting, tonight.
Villago Delenda Est
@Dennis G.:
OvenMitt fears his hair will get mussed. Noot doesn’t mind…he loves wallowing in the mud.
OvenMitt is a wuss. Noot’s got him where he wants him right now.
FSM may yet bless us with Noot as the candidate.
Elizabelle
Drinking words are “elite” and “radical like Saul Alinsky.”
Food Stamp President.
He just said it again.
dmsilev
And there goes the “food stamp President” line.
Question: Is it possible for a candidate to get a negative percentage of the African-American votes?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@dmsilev: If polled, half the audience would probably say Saul Alinksy ran Russia between Kruschev and Breshnev. the same one who called NPR to say they were never going to watch again after Juan Williams was shitcanned.
Cat Lady
Watching The Summer of Lord Stanley about how each Bruin spent their day with the Cup, instead of Newt’s beady amphibian eyes watched over by his raptor wife. These Bruins are my people.
Joe Lisboa
Doubles down (again? Triples down?) on Food Stamp President.
Also, too: “Independency”?
Villago Delenda Est
@lamh35:
Paul himself is sounding rather defeatist right now, some garbage about America is lackadaisical about freedom.
Yeah, right, you Birchite asshole.
WereBear (itouch)
@butler: As I watched Newt make that TelePrompTer joke, I got a chill; I think he’s going to win the Nom.
Romney is what the party pretends it still is.
But Newt is who they really are.
rikyrah
Little Newton beat Willard’s azz like he stole something.
I think it’s hilarious.
WeeBey
It’s all just one long dogwhistle.
Elite. Bigots. Foodstamp president.
butler
@Elizabelle: Don’t forget “teleprompter”
And my game is even simpler:
1) Watch GOP member talk
2) Drink to dull the pain resulting from #1
Oh wine, you’re such a good friend.
Sly
@JGabriel:
I wonder if, during these fantastical debates, Newt would call Obama either a Kenyan Anti-Colonialist or a Saul Alinsky Radical. Or maybe that’s a false choice.
Any which way, 95% of those watching will have no fucking clue what he’s talking about, but the Wingularity will laugh uproariously at the cleverness of their candidate, who would be the first genuine douchebag ever to receive the nomination by a major party. Say the word douchebag silently to yourself while looking at a picture of a smiling Newt Gingrich. It feels to me that the word was invented just for him.
At any rate, my brother-in-law recently explained to me that the reason many conservatives are dismayed is that the people currently running for the nomination represent the “C-Team” of the Republican Party. To which I asked, “Well, then who’s on your A-Team? Wait, nevermind, who’s on your damn B-Team?” The tired, defeated shrug I received in response was delicious.
Four more years.
Joe Lisboa
Yeah, why did Newt go after “New York elites” the night before heading to Florida? And I thought the POTUS who bowed to the Saudi King was W? So confused.
David Koch
So far he’s bashed blacks, jews, china, gays, and arabs.
pseudonymous in nc
@Chris:
A tale as old as tales themselves. Beowulf kills all the monsters, dies in the process, but it’s the fear of the monsters that holds together the society, and once they’re gone…
I still think that Mittens will take the prize — only so much of Florida is “The South” — but I think gNewt has become the vehicle of GOPper ressentiment.
Old Slow Trot
@Name: Delaware was a slave state. That explains enough.
dmsilev
@David Koch: I guess the Mexican-bashing is being saved for the grand finale.
Elizabelle
That is an ugly sounding audience.
Wish camera would turn on it. I’m thinking white as Newt and Callista’s hair.
butler
Newt named two young children (his grandkids I think) as his “top debate coaches”. Sounds about right.
Elizabelle
It’s so Orwellian hearing Gingrich calling anyone else “radical.”
The Republican Party is the ugly radicals that have gone off the rails.
Unabogie
I grew up listening to lefty radio, but I hadn’t even heard of Saul Alinsky until Gerome Corsey’s book made it sound like he raised President Obama on his knee.
Of course, they have no relationship at all. They never met, as Alisky died when Obama was in high school, but somehow to Teabaggers, Obama and Alinsky are linked like brothers. These people are insane.
butler
@Joe Lisboa: No No No. W only held hands with and kissed the Saudi King on the cheek.
Obama made the horrible, awful, no good, very bad mistake of kinda halfway slightly bowing his head when he shook his hand, which means we are now an official province of Saudi Arabia or something.
Joe Lisboa
@Elizabelle: Yes, that was a disturbingly aggressive audience, victory or no. Felt all aggro- and emitted a creepy vibe. Ugh.
WeeBey
Trying to imagine getting blown by Calista’s hair helmet.
Elizabelle
Surreal also to have Newt slamming the Army Corps of Engineers by saying WWII was won in 3-1/2 years (vs. the 8 years Corps needs to study problems).
The GOP has forgotten George W Bush and the Iraq War he started, 9 years to an inconclusive end.
George W Bush does not exist for these folks.
Nor does Dwight D. Eisenhower.
jl
See, Newt, poisonous gas attacks. He’s started already.
Since the edit button is broken I wonder if part of the post was a typo:
“The goal is to get rid of Romney,” Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond said. “Our goal is to remove, with Mitt Romney,
fromthe competitive ranks.”clayton aka corner stone squared
IT’S NOT FAIR TO BRING UP RACISM.
Anne Laurie and BHF.
All that.
This is a race to enrich the media, which got Newt a lot of press which gets a lot of money from certain groups and where does all of the Citizen United money go to?
The media.
And yet this blog ran off a voice that would have been quite helpful in these last few weeks just because what?
Why did you all run off ABL?
What is wrong with you all?
Elie
@Elizabelle:
yeah — Obama is now a black mooslim socialist Saulalinsky jew kenyan from Mars who promotes foodstamps for all…
What a fucking joke —
I can’t wait to see his ugly fat white ass up there. Obama is going to wipe the floor with Noot — Noot — greasy sweat over that large pored white skin… mouth running, babbling…
Whether him or Romney —
Cat Lady
Newt wants to be preznit of old white fart amerikkka. Everyone else can DIAF. I don’t think that’s an electorally successful strategy.
lamh35
I love how the MSM (other than Al Shaprton) is pussyfooting around the overt dogwhistling Newt G gave in that speech.
THe only one who came close was Gloria Berger who said that Newt at the end really turned to POTUS, but his rhetoric did come off as “belittling” Obama, which could be a problem.
and then hear come David Gergen with his coded analysis. talking about Newt’s being able to actually “appeal to those working class voters, white voters more than we think”.
Ugh…somebody needs some balls to call the ugly what it is.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I’m waiting for Mark Halperin or David Gergen to explain to me that Republicans are so vicious because Obama is a dick who hasn’t reached out.
Shawn in ShowMe
Noot’s performance is the most glorious by a supervillain in a B movie since Frank Langella in Masters of the Universe.
srv
Priceline kills Capt. Kirk.
oklahomo
@WeeBey: Just wait till it jumps off her head and bites someone.
AA+ Bonds
AA+ Bonds
IT’S A BIG FUCKIN DEAL
Elie
I am under moderation for some reason… I refered to Noots sweaty porous white skin I guess…
AA+ Bonds
and once again, it’s all about donors, and Romney just suggested to a bunch of donors that he may not win, which will shift some of the cash from those looking for favors (everyone)
lamh35
I love how the MSM (other than Al Shaprton) is p*&^footing around the overt dogwhistling Newt G gave in that speech.
THe only one who came close was Gloria Berger who said that Newt at the end really turned to POTUS, but his rhetoric did come off as “belittling” Obama, which could be a problem.
and then hear come David Gergen with his coded analysis. talking about Newt’s being able to actually “appeal to those working class voters, white voters more than we think”.
Ugh…somebody needs some balls to call the ugly what it is.
Jennifer
No matter how it all plays out, Newt winning S. Carolina is all good.
When I say “doesn’t matter,” I mean that it’s highly unlikely Gingrich could win the nomination. Sure, for the bufords in SC, Alabama, MS, just the whiff of a promise that Newt might call Obama a ni**er to his face is reason enough to vote for him. But that shit ain’t going to play in most of the rest of the country. But still, there’s the outside chance that Newt could win the most delegates, which would be worrisome if he weren’t so loathesome and have a history of shooting himself in the foot at the worst possible moment, so I have to root for him to win the nomination.
If he doesn’t, though, Mittens will be so trashed by the time he limps over the finish line that he won’t stand a chance of winning the general, because he starts from a point of more people not liking him than liking him. Even without Newt pelting him daily with the equivalent of verbal rotten eggs and vegetables, the fact that more people dislike than like him means that he won’t be president. But if he goes through months of being Newtered, it will be a bloody massacre.
The difference between this nomination fight and Obama/Hillary in 2008 is that Obama/Hillary was a tough battle because both were good candidates. With Newt/Romney, they’re both bad candidates. Banking on having fewer people who hate your guts than hate the other guys’ showing up on election day to stake your claim to victory is not an enviable position, but it’s one they both find themselves in. The main point is that because they’re both so loathed, it doesn’t really matter which one gets to lose to Obama.
Either way it plays out, it’s going to be LOADS of fun.
rikyrah
From Andrew Sullivan about Newt’s speech:
http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2012/01/live-blogging-the-south-carolina-results.html
John O
@WereBear (itouch):
Nicely put; I agree.
Newt is scary.
jl
@Elizabelle: Newt is a world famous professor of history. He can tell you that the artificial harbors and logistics supply train in place by day 3 at Normandy were improvised on the spot by innovative all Americans, who could understand complex interlocking problems, penetrating through many levels. They sold stuff to the s o s h u l i s t loser Brits and Canucks at a tidy profit.
Back then, small government worked!
barath
Gotta love this – David Axelrod making a divide by zero joke about Romney:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/01/21/1057105/-Daily-Kos-Elections-South-Carolina-Republican-primary-liveblog-thread-7#20120121180559
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Veritas:
Who cares to bet between the two? All that matters to me is that no matter what happens, it’s lose-lose for the Republicans and a huge win for Obama and the Democrats this fall.
You really need to up your game DougJ. The winger-spoof of this one is too organized, it needs more scatterbrained ideas to sound realistic.
;p
Elie
@lamh35:
Don’t worry — Noot always goes too far. Always
His speech started out really good and ended up over long, filled with dog whistles and boring..
If he is emptying out the invectives this early, where can he go later? Over the last three years, Obama has been called so many names so often, it is almost numbing…it literally loses any meaning…
Darnell From LA
What is happening is very clear:
The GOP base is willing to trade a chance to actually win for the simple catharsis of having one of their own stand on a stage with Obama and call him a “Nigger” (in so many words) to his face. Period. That’s it.
jheartney
I was considering declaring as a gooper to vote for Newt in the MO primary next month, but as it happens he’s not even on the ballot. OTOH the presidential preference vote is non binding (actual delegates chosen later in caucuses), so if the amphibian is still alive a few months later them Misery may give him some love.
Betty Cracker
Can someone please teach Chuck Todd the difference between “exacerbate” and “exasperate”? He did the same thing in his anti-Colbert diatribe. Dumb ass!
AA+ Bonds
Balloon Juice is clearly intimidated to hell by Newt Gingrich
“Oh he can’t blah blah blah”
“Oh he’ll never blah blah blah”
He just beat the odds, by a lot – and the entire rest of the race will be determined by who gets the checks
AA+ Bonds
Running to win every state’s delegates is BTW a phenomenon about as recent as the SC primary……..
jl
@Jennifer: “Newtered” I like that. I hope you are gifting that to the world at large for the sake of our democratic republic.
Mike in NC
@Elizabelle:
And 99.9% of Americans ask “Who the fuck is Saul Alinksy?” to the serial adulterer. He’s precious that way.
Mark S.
Does Ricky drop out and endorse Newt?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
so what guns do you think the GOP is going to roll out against Newton Leory? Barbara Bush? Did Newtie ever piss off the WASP Corleones? He must have. Nancy Reagan, she up to traveling? IIRC Dick Armey hates Newt and runs the superPACS for Cock bros.
AA+ Bonds
@Darnell From LA:
Unless they feel they can win that way, more or less like they did in the last national election in 2010
Linda Featheringill
@oklahomo:
Callista’s hair:
LOL!
Villago Delenda Est
@Jennifer:
Orville Redenbacher’s heirs are loving this. They’ll be able to put all the great grandkids through any expensive higher education institution they can get admitted to. They’ll drive to classes in Ferraris.
JPL
@Betty Cracker: NO..
Am I the only one that Newt’s goons threw eggs at..BTW..They appeared to be of Espanic persuasion…
AA+ Bonds
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The GOP’s donor base probably started splitting weeks ago (they knew more about what was going to happen tonight than we ever will) and I doubt Dick Armey can keep Koch money from Gingrich if the Kochs want it there; the real question is whether the Rove/Koch relationship is on the mend
clayton aka corner stone squared
@Elie: It’s because you are white. You know. It’s the reason we can’t have ABL anymore. Too many white people. Added another if I am not mistaken.
AA+ Bonds
Gingrich is easily on enough states’ ballots to force a showdown at the convention if he can win enough of them
Once again, all that matters is whether he can get enough money into enough states, quickly enough – and he may already have done so
jl
@AA+ Bonds: If Newt wins a few, I will start rooting for Mitt to win a few big states with a saner GOP base. Longer and uglier this race is, the better.
And as long as people like Newt and Santorum are in it, the race will stay very ugly.
If Mitt wins too quickly, he will start prettying things up, refining and distilling winning codes and wedge issues, cleaning up the pools of drunken primary political hate vomit, incontinent piss, and bowel movements from the floor, spraying air freshener around. That would be a bad development for the general election.
Villago Delenda Est
@jl:
IIRC Jennifer gave us “The Clenis” over at Atrios’ place years ago.
She’s good at this shit.
Delia
I am listening to my local radio station’s Saturday Grateful Dead program. Jerry is singing Desolation Row. It’s much more appropriate than anything the Lizard Professor has to say.
But what will happen if he does win the nomination? The 27% will have their chance and will blow up. I can’t even imagine what sort of interesting things will happen then. They’ll all tell themselves they were robbed of course . . .
Jennifer
@jl: Yes, Newtered – as in, Newt’s not happy with just winning – the other guy’s gotta leave his balls on the field, too.
Linda Featheringill
The next test for Newt will be whether he can similarly appeal to Florida Republicans’ instincts [base or otherwise] without replaying the same phrases he used in SC. If he can tailor his speeches to the local lingo, he might just get the nomination.
JPL
@clayton aka corner stone squared: wtf.. at least newt’s hired illegals threw eggs at me..
AA+ Bonds
People should also not underestimate the extreme pressure that will be on Romney to drop out if Gingrich wins a run of states and begins to look better vs. Obama in polls
There is not really anything like that sort of pressure in the Democratic primaries
AA+ Bonds
@Delia:
Villago Delenda Est
@jl:
Yeah, Noot can tell us that, but it would be bullshit.
The US Army does not improvise man made harbors on the spot like that. Eisenhower, unlike Noot, was a professional.
Everything about WWII was big government at its biggest focused on getting something done. Kinda the same way we put Neil Armstrong on the Moon.
General Stuck
@Mark S.:
Not yet, as he is even in states won with both Mitt and Newt. I think he will stick around a until the winner take all states begin, lying in wait (not misspell) at the gate to claim the conservative mantel if Gingrich screws the pooch, that Newt is prone to do with his big mouth and mammoth ego.
Mitt has the org and cash to bully his way through, but he is in the minority of the GOP as a moderate, or whatever the fuck he is. It will be interesting which takes the prize in the end, big bucks, or ideology.
My money is on ideology, at least until the RNC convention, when anything will be possible. I mean, how can the GOP send Newt into the GE, when so many of the party elite hate his fish eating guts, and many are on record saying as much. Just fascinating, the whole thing.
JPL
@AA+ Bonds: The primaries semm to be tilted towards Romney..
http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@AA+ Bonds: but the people who apply that pressure know Newt is about their worst candidate this side of Palin. The only real threat to Willard, as much as Newt weakens him, is those tax returns. If he eventually melts down over those, they’ll have to turn to…. whom? Daniels? Thune? Pawlenty? (And I don’t think that’s going to happen, if I had to bet, I’d still bet on Romney for the nom, but not more than 50 bucks, and only if I had to).
Elie
@clayton aka corner stone squared:
But I’m not white. What does ABL have to do with my comment either… I mean, I like ABL, but don’t see the relevance…
AA+ Bonds
@jl:
Lojasmo
As pleased as I am about gnoot’s win tonight, SC is chock full of stupid motherfuckers.
Darnell From LA
@AA+ Bonds: I stand by it. Here’s why:
The polling of Obama vs. Newt is not even close, across the board. A total blowout for Obama. And the most recent poll of Texas actually has Newt LOSING TEXAS vs. Obama. (yes, Newt is trailing Obama….in Texas)
Newt isn’t about winning. So I really believe this is what it’s all about: Why take a chance at MAYBE winning with a Mormon when we can have Newt dogwhistle Nigger in Obama’s presence?
Sick. But for them, too good to pass up.
AA+ Bonds
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The comparison is not apt at all; Gingrich is, if nothing else, skilled at turning propaganda into speech
If Gingrich continues to win states, his positives/negatives will shift rapidly among Republican men – they already like him more as a group and mainly, they respect ego and power
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Elizabelle: It is both true and empathetic – you’re both right. And that is partly what offends them so deeply. How dare the near guy be both accurate and caring? Who the fuck does he think he is, anyway?
dww44
@JGabriel: also, too, Newt’s born in bred in the state. Newt is as much Northern as Southern. His formative years were not spent in the South and I recollect that one or more of his half-sisters still reside there.
bondirotta
Newt does need to win Florida – he can’t win places like Ohio or Arizona if he can’t carry Florida. And Mitt will sweep California, Virginia, New York and Michigan.
Next week is the decisive one.
Triassic Sands
Newt Gingrich and South Carolina deserve each other.
Mitt Romney, the phoniest candidate ever, finally experiences an authentic emotion — humiliation.
jl
@Villago Delenda Est: Yes, I typed in jest.
Actually, from my understanding it was just the reverse of what Newt says. It was conservative, particularly Austrian economists, economists who objected to the massive government involvement in the WWII effort. They wanted fancy tax and subsidy schemes to harnass free enterprise war winning know how and git ‘er done-ness.
They were fiddling with ornate theoretical schemes all through the war, as Rosie was riveting, floating docks were built and floating, and practical economists and mathematicians willing to work for Big Gummint developed and used linear programming and modern logistics to move all them gummint people and stuff around.
Elie
@AA+ Bonds:
You think that Noot speaks with clarity? Really?
I definitely think he can ring chimes sometimes — he is very emotional in his terminology. He also loses control of it…
You bettin against Obama in a Noot/obama match up — like Obama has only one strategy or dimension? He can only be cool and intellectual with no other “game” I wouldn’t be that, bro…..
AA+ Bonds
@Darnell From LA:
LOL, the most recent date on those polls is January 17!! and that’s only ONE of them!
All Newt has to do is keep winning states and those numbers will change – and if he makes it to the general they will realign, as they always do, to reflect R-lean vs. D-lean with a tiny I wedge in the middle, representing loud idiots
Delia
One thing that’s on Mitt’s side: Everywhere west of the Continental Divide there are more sizable Mormon populations. And as far as the rest of the goopers out here go, they may be just as crazy as the other wingers, but they’re different. They don’t respond to all the racial cues the same way as the Southerners. I think they’ll go for Romney if he’s still in the race by then.
DW
Something important to remember is that the GOP base really isn’t hostile to government spending, as long as the money goes to white God fearing Christians. They only object when it goes to the wrong sort of people. The strongest group for the GOP in 2010 were the over 65 crowd who weren’t eager to give up social security or medicare. The real objection to Obamacare wasn’t any nonsense about intrusive government – it was fear that it might interfere with what the GOP base already got from government. Remember, the Repubs ran ads attacking Obama for cutting Medicare.
Newt gets this – that’s why he attacked the Ryan Medicare plan. Romney doesn’t, nor does a lot of our elite. Worse, Romney’s history with Bain Capital suggests he’s just the sort of man who would throw the affluent but not truly rich white GOP base under the bus to keep his buddies happy. Newt on the other hand is certain to keep federal manna falling on worthy white Christian folk while minimizing money to the wrong sort of Americans. That’s Romney’s real weakness.
Personally I’m all for social security and medicare. I just think it would be nice if the elderly would agree to letting the young and nonwhite who pay for social security and medicare get some health insurance of their own.
DanielX
@JGabriel:
This. Yup, that’s pretty much Newt’s thought and it’s pretty much the thought of a lot of 27 percenters. They’d rather go down in flames with a three time loser like Newt than vote for a “compromiser” like Mittens the family guy. Newt is a more pure representative of their theology/ideology than anyone else, and he sounds smarter than Little Ricky – not that being smarter than Santorum requires much intellectual heavy lifting. And, yes, before I forget, I apologize for using the word “pure” and “Newt Gingrich” in the same sentence.
Actually, this sort of reminds me of 2000, with Newt cast in the role of Ralph Nader. With the minor differences that
a) there are a hell of a lot more people that would vote for Gingrich than would vote for good ol’ Ralph, may that hypocritical bastard be eaten by red ants,
b) those who would vote for Newt are a lot crazier than Nader supporters, and not in a good way, and
c) Newt (and his Neuticles – h/t TBogg) – is not a third party candidate, although given the love he’s not feeling from the Republican establishment he might as well be one at this point.*
*If he does somehow get the nomination, they will reluctantly fall in line, as they will have no choice. Perhaps they can persuade him to pick Joe Lieberman for his VP candidate as a “moderating influence”.
Let me explain statement b). Nader supporters are for sure holier than thou true believers, and they have a lot to answer for after the 2000 election. However, they didn’t and don’t generally talk openly about shooting, hanging, or imprisoning their political opponents. Whereas a lot of commentators on, say, Red State, Free Republic and other forums who DO advocate doing those things to their opponents** think that Newt is just absolutely the cat’s ass.
**Looking at some the comments over the years, there is not a hell of a lot of difference between SOME of the Freeperati and run of the mill StormFront followers.
Jesus, a Gingrich/Lieberman ticket….what was in those drinks I had earlier? I’m going to be afraid to go to sleep tonight…
AA+ Bonds
@AA+ Bonds:
HAhahaha, parDON, the most recent poll on that page is actually the FIFTEENTH
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@AA+ Bonds: T
The people who don’t know how they’re going to vote in November are the kind of people who vote based on personality, and Newt is as cartoonish as Palin, and his propaganda appeals to a pretty small sector of the electorate, who already hate Obama and the Dems. Gingrich would have negative coat tails like nothing we’ve seen in a long time.
AA+ Bonds
Yeah I really don’t buy this two-weeks-ago version of events that seems to rule the roost here
I guess it’s just what media does to people – everything is shiny and new, no one learns from the past
Martin
I don’t think the GOP quite understands that every time they slam San Francisco, they get a lot of independent Californians to dig in against them. Californians are proud of the city – eccentric as it may be. They aren’t just losing SF votes, they’re losing the entire state.
And Newts obsession with Alinsky is just creepy. I don’t see how you can take as anything other than an antisemitic dog whistle. The guy was pretty apolitical, was certainly not a socialist, and the Tea Party more than Obama, seems to have hewed to his writings – at least as the Tea Party wants us to view them.
Delia
@bondirotta:
Newt’s not going to win Arizona — too many Mormons and cowboys.
Martin
FYWPM!
AA+ Bonds
What a lot of Democrats can’t do is put themselves in Republican shoes
Republicans are EXCITED about these primaries – and the independents who decide national elections will do whatever the subheads on AOL News tell them to do – so Newt has now been given a third (fourth? fifth?) chance to radically redefine himself in the public’s eye
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): he was also, accurately, talking about them as motivated by fear and insecurity. The gun nuts especially see themselves as rugged individualists
jheartney
@AA+ Bonds:
Now you see this is where you lose me, conflating an off-year election with the economy at the bottom of a slump and no Obama on the ballot with a presidential election in a year after the economy has started improving and incumbent Obama is running at the top of the ticket. Though I guess i should remember the Tea Party mojo was so strong in 2010 that it gave us Senators O’Donnell and Angle. Oh wait, it didn’t.
dogwood
@General Stuck:
No doubt Mitt has cash, but would someone please explain to me how Mitt has this great “organization”? What does that mean? He can’t seem to get out the vote, and I have no doubt there are plenty of republicans not voting in these primaries who would prefer Mitt over Newt or Santorum. What kind of top-notch political organization would ever send him out to say the stupid shit he spouts daily? I’m just not buying the conventional wisdom that says he is running a first class organization.
jl
@AA+ Bonds: I do not see how the garbage Newt spewed tonight helps the GOP at all anywhere outside of a variety of relatively small white bigot enclaves scattered around the country.
There probably a South Carolina’s worth of nutso white bigot enclaves in California, and the more Newt needs to tap into that to keep his sorry fraud of a campaign going, the more it will turn off the majority of the voters.
It is very bad for this country that the anyone from pack of rabid baboons that comprised the GOP primary field can qualify to run for president of this country. But that is the hand that fate dealt us.
I want a long and ugly GOP primary that damages their candidates as much as possible. Risky business, but that is all we have at this point.
And hope for continued weak economic recovery that might just exceed very low expectations.
General Stuck
@dogwood:
It’s really not so much that Mitt has a great organization, than it is Newt having little to none, and has been flying by the seat of his britches. Remember, Mitt has been pretty much running for president, and nothing else, since about 2006
Darnell From LA
@AA+ Bonds: Newt has been losing big to Obama is every poll since the beginning of time. And the poll by PPP in Texas has every other GOP candidate beating Obama. Newt is the only GOP candidate who loses to Obama….IN TEXAS.
Bottom line; Romney may be “Republican Dukakis”, whereas Gingrich is “Goldwater 2.0”. The GOP base knows this but doesn’t care. They hate Obama, just like they hate the idea of a black man in the White House, (the “absurdity of an Obama Presidency”, as Hugh Hewitt said tonight) and they want the opportunity to tell Obama his face. Winning is a 2nd priority at this point.
jl
Newt does know how to modulate his pitch. But his range is small. As far as I know, he has this ugly Pat Buchanan schtick.
And he can switch that up with his idiotic dumb man’s genius bafflegab. But most people will tire of that nonsense. And Newts visionary world historical gizmo speak will be a ripe target for Obama, and Biden too, if he is the VP nominee.
JoyfulA
@liberal: I knew that Karen lived with an abortion provider for years (didn’t know he delivered her). We in PA know a lot more about Rick that hasn’t made the national rounds.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@jl:
Exactly. That will be the comparison to make, depending on how angry Newt is in September, will he give a speech that sounded better in the original German and drives the indies who were going to vote for Romney because he doesn’t seem crazy and ‘must know how the economy works’ back to Obama.
AA+ Bonds
Another thing most Democrats probably don’t get is the extreme negative effect on Romney over the shift of Iowa away from him
Republicans believe in Dolchstoßlegende, they believe in conspiracies, and they see do-overs until they get what they want as ultimate vindication that they were right to begin with
Elie
@dogwood:
Its not the organization’s fault that its candidate is terrible… THAT is the problem. They can’t see him no matter what they do… he can’t “sell” himself.
I had the genuine impression when I watches his concession speech that he really didn’t want it that much anymore. Sure, he wanted/wants to BE President — like an award or prize — but he doesn’t want to “work” to become President. He doesn’t truly want to prove his worth or capability… that is to his mind not necessary. THAT is why he can’t explain anything. He just can’t make himself accountable that way and it just burns him that others think that he HAS to…
For all his seeming milder temperament, Romney would be far more dangerous in office to my mind — Sociopath
Jennifer
@AA+ Bonds: The turnout numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire didn’t indicate that Republicans were all that excited…I haven’t seen yet how the SC turnout compares to 2008 & wouldn’t be surprised if those mouth-breathers were excited to turn out to vote, given that so many of their favorite offerings were on the menu – Ron Paul’s states’ rights, Santorum’s stick-up-the-ass faux religiosity, Gingrich’s open appeals to bigotry…but in a country loaded with stupid extreme right-wingers, SC pretty much stands out as the MOST extreme. Newt’s schtick doesn’t play on a national stage; it never did. He never would have been speaker of the house if it was based on national plebiscite; he was fairly loathed by large majorities of the electorate.
Elie
What happened to the edit button..?
sorry about my typos in #237
AA+ Bonds
I would not look forward to a strong Republican Party without Rove; it was his influence that had George W. Bush saying over and over that American Muslims are cool
AA+ Bonds
@Jennifer:
I just can’t reiterate enough that the idea that SC’s Republicans represent some sort of marginal demographic goes completely against evidence
Villago Delenda Est
If the 27% can ever find a man (has to be a man…women simply will not do for this) who has the charisma to not only lead them, but get enough of the mushy middle to go along, we could be living in a fascist dictatorship.
So far, they have no one to fill that particular role. It sure isn’t OvenMitt, who has all the charisma of, and my apologies in advance, a wet blanket.
Chris
@DW:
That was all well said, sir. Spot on.
AA+ Bonds
“South Carolina doesn’t matter, it’s full of extremists” is a wonderful Democratic bedtime story: true compared to the world, bullshit considering that America’s electorate chooses the President
jheartney
@Darnell From LA: I think a better comparison for Newt 2012 is Mondale ’84; the party’s base, not believing that THAT GUY won the last election and certain the country would come to its senses, put up a base-friendly representative of their ideology, not realizing the previous election had ushered in a new era. (And I say this as someone whose first presidential vote was cast for Mondale; can’t tell you how good it felt to vote against the Gipper despite the obvious futility of the gesture.)
DanielX
@AA+ Bonds:
All true, you only left out the part about how a lot of them don’t believe any president except a Republican president is a legitimate president. No, really – THEY DON’T BELIEVE IT.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@AA+ Bonds:
So do Democrats/leftists. She may be nuts, but no nuttier than the commenters at…. let’s just say certain blogs…. but Roseanne Barr has announced a write-in candidacy to save the country from Obama and the Democrats, and opined that Mitt Romney’s orders from Wall Street are to lose to Obama.
AA+ Bonds
@Villago Delenda Est:
I’m pretty sure Gingrich is that man right now, defined by his major national victory in the first few minutes of the last debate
Shawn in ShowMe
@AA+ Bonds:
Dude, even Zombie Reagan hates Noot. I enjoy a little concern trolling as much as the next guy but the biggest concern this election cycle is retaining the Senate. Noot’s reputation as a slimeball actually helps us in that endeavor. Hell, it might help us pick up a couple of seats.
Dennis G.
@AA+ Bonds: Actually, I’ve been writing about Newt’s connection to the base and why he should not be counted out for years (I once thought he would make a run in 2008). In this recent cycle I’ve put up quite a few posts that predicted that he would connect with the base and have a very good shot at making this a contest. I think you could only be surprised at his win tonight if you weren’t paying attention, but that was true of most folks. So yes, I can see how some are surprised.
Jennifer
@AA+ Bonds: I don’t believe that I said it was a marginal demographic. What I said is it’s a demographic that’s far more concentrated in SC than anywhere else, with perhaps the exception of Oklahoma (them’s some dumbass mofos in OK). When that demographic is less concentrated, as it is virtually everywhere outside of SC, the dogwhistle/snake oil/what have you doesn’t appeal to the majority.
AA+ Bonds
And for those making goofy Pat Buchanan comparisons: Buchanan’s campaigns were practically defined by his inability to win South Carolina, according to Pat himself
Villago Delenda Est
@AA+ Bonds:
He might be for the 27% alone, but he can’t break out. He’s got no charisma to speak of, besides tossing red meat at the racist slime of the 27%. It doesn’t resonate past that, and he’s not operating inside a parliamentary system as Herr Godwin Bait was.
AA+ Bonds
Sure he can
Gets more money -> wins more states -> taken seriously by press -> continues to attack press -> breaks out
No guarantee of that happening (the first part will determine the rest) but it is as possible as pretty much anything else in the Republican race
AA+ Bonds
Look I just can’t lean on this enough, I’ve been repeating it since November and the press is just now noticing this:
For the last thirty years South Carolina has chosen the Republican candidate
If it does not, the rules go out the window; it it has, we are in real trouble even if Gingrich loses by a landslide
AA+ Bonds
“Win SC, win the Republican candidacy” has been the Romney gameplan since last year; it’s the Rove gameplan; it just stumbled
JoyfulA
@dww44: Newt’s one half-sister not only lives in Pennsylvania but has been appointed director of housing in the Corbett administration, for which her credentials are that she has lived in a house. (Corbett’s getting less popular by the day, thanks to refusing to tax fracking; by next week, he may be blamed for killing JoePa.)
His other half-sister has been on Rachel’s show, stating that she’ll vote against Newt.
Newt lived his early years in PA. His stepfather was a military officer, and Newt also lived in France before winding up in Georgia.
Li’l Ricky has not lived in France, AFAIK. I wonder if Ron Paul did.
dogwood
@Elie:
Oh, I agree with you. He’s a lousy candidate, and I’ve been saying that here for months. Nonetheless, for someone who has essentially been preparing for this for over 10 years, he doesn’t seem to have put together a particularly impressive organization. I might be enough to beat Newt in the long run since Newt seems to have no organization whatsoever, but it is not in the same league as the Obama team. The day after New Hampshire I listened to Morning Joe for the first time in about a year. Chris Matthews was going on and on about Mitt’s great speech, and the advantage his perfect family would give him in the general. He also claimed that the Obama team was weak compared to Mitt’s organization. This is what the media thinks, but I think they are wrong.
AA+ Bonds
Until this week I’d assumed that Obama would win easily even given all the historical problems with that assumption, and I’d assumed 2014 would likely be all right for the Democrats too
But if Gingrich harnesses the American fascists, things could change drastically even if Obama wins
AA+ Bonds
Now granted the best possible outcome is a very weak Republican candidate – Mitt Romney – limping into the general
But that is in no way the guaranteed outcome
Chris
@Villago Delenda Est:
Sure.
27% only sounds like a small number until you remember that close to half of this country doesn’t vote, which effectively doubles that number. Throw in the number of people who may not be total 27%ers but get intoxicated with 27%-run media, and the mushy moderates who think the important thing is to find a reasonable compromise between the awful liberals and the 27%ers, or the people who don’t like the 27%ers but think those awful liberals are even worse because they’re just so shrill and DFHish.
A dedicated, coherent minority is all you need, especially if you have enough elite support and if you’re part of the dominant ethnic group.
AA+ Bonds
“Things will start to move very fast now . . .”
For each week past SC, the pressure from Republican donors to end the primary season will increase exponentially
If Gingrich wins state after state after state and starts looking better vs. Obama, Romney’s campaign may go broke very quickly
AA+ Bonds
@Chris:
VDE also underestimates the amount of Ron Paulers/crazy conspiracists who voted for Obama when he was seen as an insurgent, and who will not vote for him now simply because he is the President
jheartney
@AA+ Bonds:
America’s authoritarians were harnessed by the GOP years back. The thing that’s new is that their plutocratic masters may no longer be able to keep them from doing faceplants a la O’Donnell, Angle, and now, Gingrich.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@AA+ Bonds:
and until 2012, no Senator had won the presidency in over half a century, and until 2012 no Democratic ticket w/out a Southerner had won the White House since FDR and until 1980 it was impossible for a divorced person to win a national election
Newt Gingrich is not the first poisonous, race-baiting, right-wing demagogue to capture the national spotlight. I sadly doubt he’ll be the last.
AA+ Bonds
For instance: polls show that Obama took a huge chunk of the Truther vote, and of those among that group, 20-25% of Americans, who vote, they will vote for whoever is not in power because they believe whoever is in power is part of the conspiracy
And if there is one thing a Republican can do, it is spin a conspiracy theory
AA+ Bonds
I have arrived at the conclusion that the main failing of American liberals is that they can’t, won’t, refuse to realize that political and economic history reflects constant crisis
AA+ Bonds
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
You see? The exact problem I mean
These things are new, thus they don’t matter?
What the fuck has that point of view ever done for anyone except get them fucking killed?
AA+ Bonds
I’m guessing this is some sort of Kennedy-Johnson-Schlesinger disease, the myth of the easy ride down the river of liberal majority
Combine that with the myth of saltwater/freshwater consensus in economics and you have a perfect recipe for elite, effete liberals to pat themselves on the back as they march into the camps
AA+ Bonds
I am pissed enough to mangle metaphors worse than Matt Taibbi; non-liberals happen to live in this goddamn country too and if liberals fall asleep we all fucking get it between the eyes
AA+ Bonds
“Ronald Reagan will never take the family values crowd; George Bush is still on his first wife”
*glasses clink in the liberal suite*
“My fellows we have this one sewn up!!”
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@AA+ Bonds: Macomb County! Reagan Democrats! Angry Clinton Supporters! The Bradley Effect!
OBAMA IS DOOMED!
Seriously, dood, pour yourself a tall one.
Jennifer
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I would add:
DOGS AND CATS – LIVING TOGETHER! THE END IS NIGH!
Captain C
@jl:
If true, this alone should disqualify Austrian economists from ever, ever being taken seriously.
Chris
@Captain C:
It is part of what (along with the Great Depression) disqualified free market economists for about a generation after World War Two, I believe. After the way the federal government managed that war, it became basically impossible for anyone to claim that “Government Is Inefficient.” You basically had to wait thirty years for the memory to fade.
Omnes Omnibus
@WeeBey: Always bet on black.
/Wesley Snipes
BruceFromOhio
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m trying to figure out how you figured that out. I was thinking the meds ran out, or the Venusians found a way to penetrate the tinfoil. Or maybe just sleep deprivation. Or all three.
Rome Again
@dmsilev:
Yes, especially since the last I heard Romney hadn’t committed to any more debates. I think he’s scared of Newt stealing the show and making bigger gains.
Rome Again
@AA+ Bonds:
So wake them up! Your doom and gloom scenarios won’t get them to the polls.
Rome Again
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Exactly!
Rome Again
@jheartney:
GOP money created this problem, they can deal with it. I’m looking forward to the blowback. :P
Rome Again
@AA+ Bonds:
Yeah, the guy who has all the big money interests is going to run out of funds. Are you high?
Odie Hugh Manatee
South Carolina has fired the first shot, a loose cannonball named Noot, into Fort Gooper yesterday, officially launching the Anything But Civil War.
This election is going to be one ugly motherfucker, that’s for sure.
ruemara
@AA+ Bonds: You seem thrilled to post your analysis, no matter how far off it is based on the facts.
Ron Paul
@Delia:
Ummmm… that’s Bobby.
Chuck Butcher
I’ve noticed a lot of this ‘Newt can’t win a civilized state’ kind of stuff that opts regions out. Ask Kay about her CD, if Newt could win the GOP Primary. I’d bet he can. A lot of you folks think Oregon is really quite liberal and at full state level, national level, and some CDs it certainly is – it also has a GOP that is flat out crazy scary. Newt could easily win a GOP nod in this state.
Ohio GOP went fucking nuts for Sarah Palin – ugly nuts. A lot of these states some of you are going on about have larger squishy middles, but their GOPs are anything but squishy and they’re pissed.
Of the people that know much of anything about politics nobody thinks Newt has a prayer against Obama, the national negatives make it laughable. Well, guess what – SC thinks he’s better than Romney. Not because statistics say so, because their pissed off guts say so. This is also going to play in those civilized places. This is the GOP, how many real informed voters is it you think you’re talking about?
Gretchen
@40 liberal: I found that fascinating. It begins to explain Santorum’s anger against abortion doctors and people who step outside the bounds of traditional marriage, that his wife spent her 20’s having a torrid affair and traveling the world with an abortion doctor, before settling into humdrum, boring everyday life with him.
Gretchen
@61 yutsano: Missouri is actually a Mormon center and important in their history. I think the Mormom Garden of Eden is here. I’ll give you Kansas and Nebraska, though.
Captain Howdy
Maybe Ron Paul would have done better if he hadn’t disavowed hit cuckoo bananas newsletters.
Lojasmo
@AA+ Bonds:
Something about which you evidently know quite a bit.
Looking over the subsequent few threads, you are the wirst concern troll ever.
Jim
Agreed – to achieve something one must first set goals. Great post