The latest NBC/Marist poll in Florida this weekend finds Mitt Romney up big over Newt Gingrich now, 42%-27%. That’s not the big news. This is, buried at the ass end of the article:
Romney and rest of the candidates, however, continue to trail President Obama in Florida among all voters. Romney does best, but loses 49-41 percent, a point worse than a month ago.
As in the latest NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll, Gingrich fares the worst of the entire GOP field against Obama, worse even than Santorum or Paul. Obama beats Gingrich, 52-35 percent, a five-point wider advantage for Obama from December.
Obama, whose approval rating in Florida is 46 percent, has a lead over Romney, in large part, because of independents. Independents sided overwhelmingly with the president — 50-36 percent over Romney, and by 20 points or more over Gingrich, Santorum and Paul.
Pretty much everyone on Earth should have seen this coming. The longer and uglier the GOP primary becomes, and the further Mitt Romney has to pivot to the right during the primary season, the more independent voters he’ll lose in the general.
Another reason that POTUS is leading in Florida is Gov. Rick Scott. Independents are utterly furious with him and that’s reflected in that general independent disgust with all four GOP candidates. The same scenario is playing out in the other two big traditional swing states, Ohio with John Kasich, and to a lesser extent, Tom Corbett in Pennsylvania.
And yes, ten months is a universe in political time, but the seeds for the GOP defeat in November are being planted now by Romney trying to out-wingnut the wingnuts.
Villago Delenda Est
Man, I need to upgrade my Schadenfreude meter from supersize to megasupersize. It simply can’t take all this GOP fail.
Wait till the voters get to know Romney.
The big variables: 1) how firm is this unfavorable view of Romney, and 2) what ugliness can happen over the next 10 months to hurt Obama.
But you gotta love that Romneys unfavorables are soaring, esp. amongst independents. It also suggests tepid support so lower turnouts amongst the faithful.
That said, volunteer for local Dems and Obama campaigns for this fall, and really grind it in. I phone banked in 2008, and will be doing more of the same this time around. The Obama campaign is very well organized to find useful tasks for even the slightly motivated.
So, they drove into a dead end and now discover that their vehicle doesn’t have a ‘reverse’ gear. Boo fucking hoo.
Romney needs to sing some Al Green.
“The universe” is not a unit of time, Zandar. I think you meant to say that Romney can make the Kessel Run in under ten parsecs.
Is the extended pre-primary debate overload, a vehicle for republican money laundering/pay to play/hush money an economic scheme, a Rovian strategic error or a media success?
Um, according to commentariat, THE MEDIA will unveil awesome mind altering powers and convince us all that Romney is the hardworking common man with a track record of awesome. A Stalwart, steely-eyed, modern day Arthur with a gleaming sword of tax cutting who will save us from that teleprompter reading crypto-fascikenyan occupying the White House illegally. Due to Romney being a republican and so damned charismatic. So we better surrender. Or something. It’s hard to hear over that large whine.
I’m so glad to see the Palin/Cain/Tea Party coalition coming out to support Newt. The more GOP infighting the better.
For the general, Romney will tack to the center, and Republican voters will dutifully line up to vote for him, including Republicans who call themselves independents. As usual.
Mitt will also be caught in the vice between pivoting towards the center for the general election while still trying to bolster his right-wing credibility for the GOP base.
Every turn towards the center will be proof that he’s a RINO to the tea-bag base.
Not an enviable position.
Meanwhile, in Oakland some members of the OWS are producing great imagery with which Scott Brown and his Wall Street funders will use to beat Elizabeth Warren over the head.
Yes, we will have to work to reelect Obama. But success is looking downright possible right now.
AND the Gingrich campaign is doing a wonderful job of finding out which criticisms work with what group of voters.
Yes, we can.
Wow. Thanks for stating the obvious, but how does this translate into Romney winning the election?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Ten months is a long time, the economy is fragile, and Romney is close to the Village’s ideal candidate, a Republican, but not one of those Republicans, and that’s an image that has a great deal of appeal to tote-baggers, upper (middle) class, Republican friendly independents, etc. OTOH, Romney is one of Obama’s biggest assets. The only thing he really believes in is his own background, high finance. He only seems real when he says things like “Corporations are people my friend!” “You’ve got to let the foreclosure process run its course” “Banks are not evil” –which I happen to think is true, banks are not evil, their tools in a corrupt system, that thing that is the only thing Romney believes in. He’ll say a lot of shit like that over the next year, and I think Plouffe and Axelrod will know how to use it.
Stay the course, Mitt — hard right. Right into the fucking ditch.
Good luck with that tack to the middle — will look all the world like flip-flop #10,000.
And hey, Grover — thanks for that impeachment threat if Obama lets Bush’s tax breaks expire. More ammo against those congressional races.
Nom de Plume
Obviously, this is pretty standard in POTUS elections–primary candidates in whichever party tack to the right/left to get the nomination, then moderate in the general. I think the difference here is the extremity to which the GOP candidates have been pushed by their base. I can’t think of an analogue in Democratic primaries. They simply don’t go as far to the left as these GOP candidates do in the opposite direction. They are backing themselves into a corner.
pseudonymous in nc
The teabagger governors who arrived in the 2010 wave may turn out to be the gits that keep giving, especially in states without the buyers’ remorse mechanisms available in Wisconsin. Assuming that Newtmentum is over, I don’t see Romney doing too many campaign stops with them, and that may rile up the teabagger base.
Romney already has major credibility problems to put it lightly. Everyone and their dog think that he is a flip-flopper. Pivoting back to the middle adds more fuel to the fire. I don’t know if Romney can do it.
And yeah, there will be a few former Obama voters who think they’re too cool to vote to re-elect him but the young still trend liberal and a new cohort has come of age. And nobody outside Wall Street will be voting for Romney rather than against Obama. For the GOP, it is the “No-bama” election, pure and simple. But this will not motivate swing voters to get to the polls.
Davis X. Machina
Ten months is forever. The European Central Bank is going to elect our president.
I’m not surprised. No matter how sane Romney is supposed to be, he is still a shit candidate. Too in love with banks, corporations and his very low tax rate.
This is a guy whose most blistering attack on President Obama is to say “yeah, the economy has improved under him, but not enough!” That’s not much of an attack.
Like I’ve said before, Romney is the king of unquantifiable statements. When he starts talking about how much better things would be with him as President, the obvious questions are going to be, well, how much better? Give us a number, and then what’s he going to do? He’ll end up sounding like Newt “moon base” Gingrich with wild proclamations about how if it were President Romney, the streets would be lined with gold by now.
@Davis X. Machina:
Or the American Oil/Gas concerns.
Villago Delenda Est
This is why the Villagers are placed at the head of the tumbrel line, with the exception of four Supreme Court (in)justices. The Rethug apparatchiks come after the Villagers. Priorities.
It’s his three year old daughter Bella, who has the genetic disorder that is in the hospital. I hope everything is okay with her.
Rick isn’t a big factor in Florida, but I wonder how/if this will affect anything in other states for him.
And now it’s the banks, or the millionaires, or the Germans. I never realized how helpless we are in the hands of these many Saurons…
Davis X. Machina
@GregB: There’s no such thing as an American energy company, not one big enough to matter.
I don’t think it’s just the longer the s***fight goes on the worse the GOP candidates look.
It’s more – the longer the GOP candidates have to stand up and make a case for what they believe – the worse they look. Romney included.
Just about everything about the Teahadists falls apart once someone asks probing questions. The media was just never going to do that until it came down to these debates.
You’re just trying to get my hopes up that this will be an easy fall. As a Dem I have not had one of those yet & I don’t expect this one to be different. It’ll tighten up after the conventions & then we’ll see how much the fluffers hate Willard or do their masters work.
I’m going to work like Barack is down by 5 anyway be cause, even when I am unhappy with him, the alternative is to horrible to imagine
@Violet: I hope she’s ok. She’s a child and not responsible for her hateful parent. Well wishes.
Ever get the feeling that progressive political theory has more in common with the Perils of Pauline than Saul Alinsky?
As a parent I can imagine how difficult a situation like this must be. Its a shame he is such a dink that it hard to express sympathy for him but I hope the little girl does well – most kids with her condition don’t make it past 18 months but then few get as good care as she has probably gotten.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Or more to the point, he’ll stop saying most of that when he gets the nomination, but Axelrod, Plouffe et. al already have more than enough stuff to run ads 24/7. And they will do it.
Exactly, which is why the liberal blogosphere should have been holding their fire on Gingrich and Paul the past couple of months.
Did “best” become a new synonym for “oldest” when I wasn’t looking? Or “whitest”?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I don’t think he’ll stop. I don’t think he can. Part arrogance, part true belief, part missionary zeal.
@Violet: Okay, I’m going to open myself up to gigantic criticism by saying that Santorum should have been with her all along. Even before he started seriously running for president, this child’s disorder reduced her life expectancy to a matter of weeks or months. Knowing this, Santorum still chose to go out on the trail and constantly fucking lecture everyone else about “what a child needs — a father and a mother are its birthright” while selfishly pursuing a near-nonexistent chance of becoming president. In doing so, he willfully, and with other career options, deprived his dying daughter of the company of her own father for great stretches of time.
I do not believe that most parents would have made that choice.
Now, when he’s out of money and any chance of getting through Florida with other than single digits, he goes home to be with her.
I’m very sorry about what’s happening to this little girl. I’m also sorry she has such a crappy father.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: You may well be right. From your lips to That Awkward Man’s tin ears!
@JGabriel: Or “seven dwarfiest”? Sleepy and Angry?
@shortstop: I felt the same way about Sarah dragging her pregnant daughter on the stage with her boyfriend. She used her daughter like a prop.
2008 wasn’t exactly a nail-biter. In that election John McCain never led in a single Kerry state. Meanwhile, Obama consistently led, tied or was within the margin of error in around 11 Bush states. He flipped 9 of them. I’ll believe in the awesome power of the Romney campaign and the media’s power to pump him up when I see him leading in a dozen or so states Obama won the last time. I expect this election to be a bit closer, but Mitt has his work cut out for him if he is going to get back to the Bush map.
Why does everyone think that once the nomination is sewn up Mitt’s going to start moving to the center? That sure as hell wasn’t what McCain did. Romney’s going to have to make sure all those fundies come out and vote for him, and they don’t like him very much to begin with. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s so worried about that he picks
PalinBachmann or Santorum for his running mate.
The Santorums’ daughter has trisomy-18. It’s actually quite surprising she has lived as long as she has.
I know I’m using up valuable bandwidth mentioning Palin, but I just find this quote hilarious…
Also, never heard of Saul Alinsky before Newt and I still have no desire to google him.
From your lips to His noodley appendages!
Yes on both these politicians. And just to pile on each would get more sympathy from me if they ever showed an once of sympathy for someone of no immediate advantage to them. My feelings are for the innocents, not their parasitic parents
I don’t disagree with your criticism of Santorum’s decision to stay on the campaign trail instead of being with his daughter, but this:
isn’t completely true. He had intended to return to the campaign trail today in Florida, as well as be on Meet the Press, but he cancelled those appearances to stay in PA because his daughter was admitted to the hospital. I think he was home for other reasons (to retrieve his tax returns, I heard), and then she was taken to the hospital so he changed his mind about leaving. His eldest daughter is appearing in his place at his campaign stops in FL today.
So had his daughter not needed to go to the hospital, he’d still be out there campaigning, not near her side.
Gin & Tonic
@shortstop: I’m with you. I’ll admit I have a good employment situation (although probably not as good as whatever grift Ricky has) but when I had a child who became very seriously ill, I said to work “see you later”, and the only thing my boss said was “let us know how we can help.” It all turned out well in the end, but my and my wife’s only job for the duration was to be by his side and managing his care.
The Media wants a Horserace.
No, more importantly, the Media NEEDS a Horserace; so, they will make it one. It won’t be an easy win for Obama (it just won’t be THAT hard).
Yes. The answer is yes.
Six children, a prior history of birthing complications, and 48 years old.
@Violet: I believe his daughter has been in and out of the hospital for some time. If that’s correct, then it’s not out of line to notice that his decision to stay home right now coincidentally provides a reason for him to not be in Florida. If I’m wrong about that, I’ll be glad to retract my cynicism.
‘He’ll end up sounding like Newt “moon base” Gingrich’
Can we start calling him Moon Unit Gingrich? That would be awesome.
Saul Alinsky was, however, an important and interesting man in American history. Here is one of his watchwods:
“Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.” Saul Alinsky from Rules for Radicals
Alinsky is Newt’s neoprofessorial code for Palin’s code words community organizer and think about this quote when you listen to their desperate fear-mongering.
@JGabriel: Your point being…?
Sings to little fishies
@Nom de Plume: exactly, this is like the NY State “Rent is too damn high” candidate getting the nod in the primaries, then trying to tack towards the middle. Obama’s ads can just be 20 and 30 second slices of Romney speaking, since there are so many things that he’s said that are repellent to moderates as well as common sense.
Also, I still believe that evangelicals will sit on their hands in the general election, because of Romney’s Mormonism. He’s a fucking Mormon Bishop. There will be a measurable effect in the general election.
Yes, exactly. I have been on the same conclusion for awhile now. The Teahadi take over is complete, and he can’t move left without killing his support, and you bring up a great point: McCain was even less beholden to the Wingnuts and he stayed hard right. Why anyone thinks Romney will be able to run as a Centrist is beyond me. He can’t do it.
Was that not the coolest thing ever? Prez got talent!
@The Dangerman: my guess is that the media will make it SOUND closer than it is … perhaps by focusing on how the GOP leads in likely voters and that is more reliable than registered voters or down play cell phone polling or general horse racy thingies that might scare us more…hence we will all be reading Nate for the real poop
Not enough money into Florida for Gingrich.
Not enough crazy billionaires behind him.
A weakened Romney.
Good news all around for the Democrats . . .
The thing about Alinksy and co. is that their strategies are used – by Norquist, and they’ve influenced Gingrich whether or not he’s ever read Rules
Rove has carved his own path though while still drawing from Gingrich and Norquist and it still seems to do the truly important bit: get the money from the people who have it into Rove’s campaigns
@dmbeaster: I thought they had used up all the ugliness. Non stop, surely cannot be much left.
Shawn in ShowMe
In a previous thread I posted the BJ class syllabus for the next 9 months but I was unsure on one point: When will be discussing the Dem candidates that have the best chance of picking up seats in the House and Senate?
In Missouri, McCaskill, who is being touted by some here as a 2016 presidential candidate, will have to face the winner of the Todd Akin/Sarah Steelman/John Brunner battle, with Akin and Steelman being particularly wingnutty. In the Show Me State, McCaskill is basically seen as a surrogate for Obama, which doesn’t fly outside of St. Louis and Kansas City. It’s going to be close.
Redistricting effectively eradicates the former 3rd district, which was in Democratic hands, and splits it between districts which each party controls. So we come out a loser there. However I think we have a shot at taking Todd Akin’s District 2 seat, since he’s not running for re-election.
So Commentariat, what’s going on in your neck of the woods?
I do admit surprise that Gingrich decided to use his prodigious abilities at insulting people for the left instead of the right
Yes, I think you’re right that her condition has required frequent hospitalizations. It might just convenient for him and he’s using that as an excuse. Or it might be that she really did take a turn for the worse and he made a decision to be with her. I’m not sure we’ll ever know. He did have events and appearances scheduled today that he cancelled, so it’s got the appearance of being last minute. But appearances can be misleading.
It’s kind of amazing she got pregnant at 48 years old. That’s the window of natural fertility for women is usually closed by that time. Of course there are all sorts of assisted reproduction and donor options that extend the window, but assuming they didn’t use those, 48 years old is kind of amazing.
If Santorum gets the nod for VP, whoever the nominee for President is for the Republicans loses Pennsylvania.
In the GOP, ugliness is self-perpetuating and inexhaustible.
The true shame is that most Democrats have never read Rules for Radicals or Alinksy at all
read Rules for Radicals already
@Violet: @Violet: the fact that it requires intimacy with rick makes it near unbelievable
@JGabriel: I was going to point out that, but the obvious questions are moot because Rih isn’t going to be the nominee, and because 99.9% of Juicers detest the guy already.
Amazon’s book suggestions linked Alinsky’s book with Glenn Beck’s books, Sean Hannity’s, etc. last I checked
What that means:
1) Republicans think of the Democrats in terms of the book, so you should read it to beat the Republicans
2) Republicans are learning from the book, even if they read it while saying to themselves that they hate the book, so you should read it to keep up
Democrats are super-afraid to fulfill stereotypes in my non-scientific experience, but really, it’s a good goddamn grab-bag of ideas you can try out in politics and the Republicans have used some of them to great effect
Yeah, I was wondering if Santorum is running for VP. That attack on Romney about Romneycare in the last debate doesn’t seem to bode well for his VP chances. The Obama team can just play that bit over and over again.
If Romney loses the general, it’ll be Satorum’s Turn next time. Shudder.
@eric: She has an expression of permanent sadness and unease. I think I know why.
@Violet: I thought he might be going for wrecking Americans’ health and human services. Double shudder. But of course his Romney bridge burning won’t help with that, either.
This election is not going to turn on Saul Alinsky any more than the last one turned on Rev. Wright or Bill Ayers. Alinsky is just a replacement for the other two in this election. It’s the kind of crap Republicans always pull, but it only works if there aren’t bigger issues at hand or if the candidate they are trying to slime is generally perceived to be a bit shady or insincere by the general public.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Shawn in ShowMe:
That was me. Just for clarity, I don’t think McCaskill would make a good candidate (which is how I would define ‘touting’), I just think McCaskill has the ego and Bayh-esque, Harold Ford*-esque delusions about the power of Centrism to make a run. I despise her, and find myself hoping she stays in the Senate.
*I’m seeing that jackass everywhere in the last couple weeks. I wonder if now that he’s made his pile on Wall St, he’s planning a return to the arena. I wonder in which party. I’m sure every time his phone rings he expects to see Americans Elect in the caller ID
How can this be? Michael Duffy from Time just told me on Tweety’s weekend show that it is impossible for Obama to win Florida this fall.
@FFrank: Bob McDonnell is going to be nominated VP. He’s not unpopular and VA might turn red with him on the ticket. The repubs might be able to pick up a Senate seat if conservative turnout is high.
@Davis X. Machina:
This meme gets too much energy.
IMO, while the European situation is a Big Deal, any potential threat to our own economy (especially the ‘real’ parts of it) is somewhat overblown. Of the three main economic zones (Europe, China and the US), we’re in the best position of the three. Not that we’ve done much to deserve it.
Soros lives and dies by the carry trade, so of course he’s going to fret over it. People who actually work for a living, or otherwise produce value? Not so much.
@Shawn in ShowMe:
Dunno if it’s been covered here, but Texas is about to get a lot bluer:
Texas Dems, minority groups near huge win with redistricting settlement
By Cameron Joseph – 01/27/12 05:52 PM ET
The Texas state attorneys defending the state’s GOP-drawn redistricting plans from court challenges have reached out to settle litigation, according to sources in the state. The settlement would give minority groups and Democrats what they’ve been demanding from the start: more heavily minority, Democratic-leaning House seats.
The result would likely mean at least four more Texas Democrats in Congress as of next year, a good start on the 25 or so seats Democrats need to win to retake control of the House.
“They’re backed up against the wall and have to come to some agreement and it’ll be awfully favorable on our end,” said one of the plaintiffs in the case.
Another plaintiff agreed. “It’s clear they know they’re in a vulnerable position and that’s why they want to settle,” he said.
That’s just disgusting. shortstop is right that she’s got an expression of permanent sadness and unease. I think she wanted kids and made a bargain she doesn’t like to have them.
Look at Obama’s donors from 2008
The question is, can he still pull this money after Dodd-Frank (and I know Dodd-Frank is a joke, no one has to point that out to me)
Obama hasn’t left much room there in the center for Mitt to move to. It’s not that Obama is being particularly centrist, it’s that the Dems and Obama have been tackling issues that that GOP has abandoned – like health care reform, and tax fairness. They’ve become issues championed by the left which are firmly centrist concerns. And because of Mitt’s history with health care, and because Mitt is so foreign in terms of GOP policy – he’s got no voting record to run on, for example, and carries no real credibility on anything other than domestic economic issues – which are the issues that the Dems have owned lately – I don’t see *where* Mitt can tack to the center and not either have the same positions as Obama, or take positions that Obama is quite popular on.
The only weakness Obama has is on the handling of the foreclosure situation (which simply has not gone well by any measure) and on jobs, which has been showing steady if slow progress. Those are Mitt’s openings, and he hasn’t said anything really substantial on either one – just the usual GOP platitudes. And Obama has offered some real policies on both issues in the SOTU.
Actually, Mr. Alinsky was a nice guy. You might like him.
Very liberal, very activist, not Marxist. Sort of like a bleeding-heart-liberal-dogooder on steroids. :-)
Yeah AFAIK the main discussion of Alinsky on the real left in America is about whether or not he meant to try and destroy the left (I don’t think so but I do think liberals should suck it up and read his book)
Ugh, how is this any different than 2008? The constant search for a savior- “Guiliani! he’ll save us. Fred Thompson! he’ll save us. Draft Jeb Bush.”
The resistance against what seemed like the less-than-exciting but inevitable candidate. “Anyone but McCain.”
@Martin: Obama does have an opening on foreclosures, but Willard can’t exploit it, because he is on record saying they should continue until we reach bottom and banks aren’t bad.
I don’t think it works that way. I don’t think the Dems would run that clip if Santorum was on the ticket because presumably in a GOP administration, Santorum would become the face of healthcare.
One problem Romney as GOP candidate presents is that he can’t effectively attack Obama on healthcare. But Santorum can make a strong attack on healthcare, and has shown that he will. The attack by Santorum doesn’t hurt Mitt in the general because the people it should have worked with are going to vote for Mitt anyway. But it does help Mitt in the general because for the independents that seem to really care about PPACA, they would have an advocate in Santorum as VP because Santorums arguments would apply 100% to Obama as they did to Romney. That attack makes Santorum more likely as VP, IMO.
To mortgage-holders no less, and on camera.
I do not really believe this tone-deaf Austrianism comes from Rove or his handlers; I think for all the perception of Romney as a tightly-controlled automaton, he actually wanders off the reservation constantly
He’s a type you won’t shake if you meet a couple of them – a finance-industry suit who learned the proper opinions to hold in his business through constant reinforcement, and has only an academic idea of how most people don’t hold those opinions (including most economists)
100% agreement. Had it been my child, you couldn’t have pried me away from her bedside for any price — even if it was 100% guaranteed that I’d win the presidency for doing so. I cannot imagine leaving a deathly sick child for months and months to go out and campaign. It’s inconceivable to me how a mind like that works.
Davis X. Machina
@Judas Escargot: All I know is what I read in the papers. A collapse of a bunch of European banks would have a knock-on effect on American banks, and there’s no political support for bailing them out again, on the left or the right. That’s the only bi-partisan position in the country.
@Hill Dweller: Well, he can overcome that – and there are other approaches he could advocate – a program to let renters stay in their properties if the banks foreclose, etc. I thought Obama’s idea for basically free refis was a pretty good one – and it’s defensible – if the Fed is going to loan money to banks at basically 0% interest, then we should be able to ask banks to pass the benefits along. He could offer ideas like those. And there’s the issue of culpability in all of this.
But Mitt is still banging the “It’s all Fannie Mae’s fault for loaning money to people would couldn’t repay” drum, which is a straight up lie, so I don’t expect him to do anything useful, but he could if he wasn’t such a craven liar.
@JGabriel: Disgusting. Party of Life, my ass.
The Santorums’ perverse view of “life” selfishly introduced preventable suffering into the world.
Every agony their daughter has undergone and will undergo is squarely the fault of their medieval birth cult insanity.
Fuck them both.
I bet Rove really wishes he had gone with another glad-handing New Evangelical drunk, someone he could control through email and phone calls
And Rove has made some big fuck ups, like that “Obama isn’t working” turn they’re still trying
Someone here pointed out that the Tory pun was mangled, and I returned that the pun was simply changed to be a racist dogwhistle, but the dogwhistle . . . isn’t working
Shawn in ShowMe
Didn’t Abraham show his love for God by his willingness to sacrifice his child? Extremism in the defense of God’s country is no vice, to paraphrase The Venerable Bishop Goldwater.
So if that type is murderous extremism is laudable, merely being absent is surely no crime at all. In fact, it’s a very small price to pay.
Another water is wet blog post.
But you are correct that 10 months is an awful long time politically with an electorate well known for have a very short term memory.
Especially the independents. Those people are easily swayed but fearmongering. The hundreds of millions of Koch and other Citizens United dollars waiting on the sidelines to throw mud at the president 24/7 hasn’t begun yet.
@Emma: I knew it was a mistake to let people use the seeing stones. Since they’re not all accounted for, we don’t know who might be watching back. Very bad for morale and sanity:
pseudonymous in nc
I hope the best for Santorum’s daughter, but I find it abhorrent that he invokes her condition in order to lie about the treatment she’d receive in a country with a humane healthcare system.
There are multiple paths to 270 for Obama without Florida or Ohio.
Rombot, on the other hand, can’t win without both.
@Davis X. Machina:
For Soros’ doomsday scenario to play out, three things would have to happen.
You have to believe that (1) Sovereign governments (ie people with guns) in Europe are really stupid enough to allow total systemic collapse to appease the banks. That (2) China, which lives and dies by its exports and foreign asset holdings, would be stupid enough to allow one of their larger markets to collapse. And (3) that the US banks haven’t been quietly fixing their balance sheets with cash from the Fed at near-zero interest rates.
Money-people like Soros push the meme because gods forbid they take a haircut on their bad investments. And Village-people like those writing for the WaPo are still trying to convince us that We, the People, must brace ourselves for a decade of suffering and austerity because… Austria! Gold! That’s why!
If we survived 2008, we’ll survive 2012.
ETA: The biggest threats to the American recovery right now are named Eric Cantor and John Boehner. To most of us little people, Europe is a sideshow.
This week’s cover of “The New Yorker” captures the moment perfectly:
Hell, even if Romney runs a kick ass general election campaign, holds all the McCain states and flips Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and New Hampshire…
He still loses 281-257.
Word to that. In every way.
Hopefully we’ll keep enough, but trust that we will simply due to the improbability of the map swinging wildly doesn’t have a very good basis in history. Look at this sequence:
In 1964 Rs only got 6 states
In 1968 Dems only got 10
In 1972 Dems got 1
In 76 Dems got 21 (and won)
In 80 Dems got 4
I don’t feel as strongly as you but agree that condemming a new life to that suffering knowingly is very deep… In the old days, no one knew in advance unlike now — folks did the best they could for their impaired child. But to know and still allow it… well… is harsh. I stop short of judging someone in such a personal sphere… Lord knows the conflicts anyone faces in making such a decision and I do hold to the privacy of one’s beliefs and choices..
Still — I can see the reflection of Santorum’s judgemental nature, his extremity, in his comments about the poverty stricken. He seems an old time Calvinist rather than a Catholic — no such thing as mercy in his world… we are all to pay the wages of sin…
@Davis X. Machina: I’m not particularly enamored of the FRB’s over-emphasis on the dangers of non-existent inflation, but I don’t doubt that they will act to save the banks should the need arise. Ron Paul can complain all he wants about bond vigilantes or whatever, but the FRB can act without his say-so.
@mdblanche: Exactly. And so we weep and moan and… oh to he-l-l with it.
@Schlemizel: Let me just add that I pray for Bella, it is heartbreaking for a child to suffer. I also pray that no private insurer will say she hit her life time maximum and stop paying for her care. In other words I hope Obama wins so that will never happen to her or anyone else.
@Davis X. Machina: Also, too, it’s best to check in with Dean Baker after reading a article about the economy in the Test Prep Daily. An example.
Deep thought: I know capitalism is the greatest invention ever, but isn’t it a little alarming that a shitball country like Greece could bring the entire house of cards down? It’s almost as crazy as the entire system falling apart because idiots are making bets on whether a certain percentage of mortgages won’t be paid.
A Ghost To Most
Your comment about Mitt reminds me of a TV episode from some show in the 80s. Two cops are in an apartment several floors up, talking to the owner of a stolen cow, which was found in the apartment, alive. They ask the man the best way to get the cow down the stairs, as there was no elevator.
“Can’t be done”, the man says firmly. They ask why,
“They got no down gene”, again with certainty. The cops look at him quizzically.
“They got no down gene. You can lead a cow up stairs, but not down stairs”‘ and leaves.
The cops spend part of the show attempting to do what the man was convinced could not be done, with predictable results.
They end up shooting the cow, and calling in a butcher.
The modern publican party reminds me of cows; they got no down gene.
And when it’s over, the right wing of the Republican party will blame Mitt Romney for the debacle, and declare if Republicans had nominated a real conservative they would have won. Brilliant.
Not only this, but he’s left the entire job of caring for her and their several other children to his wife, or whoever they have helping out. Dealing day to day with a seriously ill child is one of the world’s most despair-inducing jobs. Having to also be a single parent to other kids, just so the spouse can go on a misguided quest for glory, would be truly Santorum-esque. What a fail of a human being.
If I prayed it would be that every American child had the medical coverage Ol Frothy gives his kid.
In a just world O-F would be visited by 3 spirits in the night the third one would show him what his childs life would be like if he and his wingnut brethren succeed and the shock of that would make him don sack cloth and ashes and he would prostrate himself in the dirt outside the White House and beg for forgiveness.
talking with a friend today, and I was like, W-T-F else can they do against Obama outside of outright calling him a ‘N—er’? They’ve spent the last 3 years calling him everything else. Every dog whistle possible against him and his family. I’m just not feeling those who think that this campaign against the President is going to be so ‘ ugly’. What has the last 3 years been about?
Shawn in ShowMe
Man, calling him a fail of a human being for being a religious fundamentalist is pretty harsh. Religion is a human creation, after all. For all we know his family considers his Onward Christian Soldier routine a noble undertaking. Maybe we’ll found out otherwise if Mrs. Santorum ever decides to write a book.
@David Koch: That is great.
Darnell From LA
The problem for Willard will be trying to move toward the political center after securing the nomination, as is usually the case in American politics. Willard can’t move to the center if Newt, Paul, and/or Santorum are riding his as throughout the primary.
This wasn’t a factor for Obama / Clinton in 2008, as their primary campaigns were almost identical on the issues to Obama’s general election campaign.
So, how and when will Willard be able to all of the sudden become “pro-choice” again, or start kissing up to Hispanics? He may not be able to, and will be “Republican-Mondale” come November after he completes alienating Independents while becoming the most unlikable politician since Emperor Palpatine.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Ford will be running for Senate against Gillenbrand as the Senator from Bank of America if he can. His last attempt at getting noticed (Ford Takes a Tour of New York and Everyone Loves Him) that was foisted on us by the NYT went nowhere. If I remember correctly, the high hair Dems around Cuomo don’t like the high hair Dems around Schumer and she was Schumer’s selection to fill Hilary’s seat. It’s an odd fight because ideologically, the Schumer camp and the the Cuomo camp are about the same as any two two limes at the Fairway.
Darnell From LA
@Cacti: We have a chance to utterly destroy Willard the Robot.
Even if Willard manages to win EVERY state McCain won in 2008, PLUS take back from Obama’s 08′ totals Nevada, Colorado, Nebraska’s EV split, Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina he STILL loses.
And in addition to having even less charisma than old man McCain, Willard lacks the old GOP Candidate back-stop of military experience. (Romney is the 1st GOP nominee since Dewey in 1948 with no military experience)
Newt is going all the way to the convention:
Well, he’s white, and wears a suit…derp.
@Davis X. Machina:
Concern trope B. thanks!
That’s what? Eight million? Chump change.
@Shawn in ShowMe: Really late, but the “fail of a human being” is not about his religion. It is about him basically abandoning his wife and daughter for months at what is a desperately hard time in their lives. So what if his wife “supports” his decision? A decent person wouldn’t have put her into that position. When our son has been hospitalized/very ill, my spouse won’t leave me alone to go on a f*cking two day business trip, because there is a substantial chance that our son might die. And he isn’t going to let me & our other kids be alone for that if he can help it. THAT is what a good human being does.
@Linda Featheringill: Thanks!
I found this summary pretty helpful. (from the Forward, a Jewish publication, written by someone a wee bit tired of Mr. G’s dog whistle work.)
@Schlemizel: Hear, hear!
Mr Stagger Lee
Obama’s reelection won’t be easy because of two words. Citizens United.
@Darnell From LA:
Well… that’s being kind of generous on the “military experience.” Bush went to the National Guard for a reason, and it was to stay as far as possible from the kind of stuff the military exists for. And Reagan was in a motion pictures unit, which I think we can agree isn’t “military experience” in any meaningful sense.
Romney doesn’t have the trust of the base to occasionally move to the center. Any attempt to move to the center will be a reminder of his reputation as a flip-flopper. The belief of many on the right that Romney is a RINO will be confirmed.
Also, does anyone seriously believe that once Romney wins the nomination that Sarah Palin and the tea partiers will quietly fall in line?
Normally, I’d say “yes,” because they’re usually pretty good at falling in line. But it’s been a while since they’ve had a candidate they disliked as much as Romney, it’s been a while since there’s been this intense a conflict in the GOP base, and Gingrich and Palin both have gargantuan egos, enough that they might continue throwing shit all the way to November if they feel like the party’s slighted them by picking Romney.
Consider that Obama only won FL by only 2 percentage points in 2008. That was in a year when he won by 7 percentage points nationally.
Since this poll gives Obama an 8-point lead in FL, I thought it would be interesting to see what the electoral college would look like if you increased his margin by 6 percentage points in every state.
It would look like this
Actually not that different from 2008 (just add MO, MT and GA to the blue column); that’s because Obama didn’t lose many close states last time around.
@Chris: Last time I remember the Republicans having such an unloved candidate was… 2008. I recall them all getting in line behind McCain glumly and showing no enthusiasm about it. Sort of like how I never see Republicans these days say why they’re for Romney except that he’s not Obama. McCain had to move to his right after the primaries to keep them that happy. The only thing that got them enthusiastic was picking you know who as his running mate and she just repelled independents. And now she’s back to sow some anti-Romney dissent into the mix? I might have to buy more popcorn.
I know McCain wasn’t popular, I just don’t think he was hated to quite the same degree as Romney. At least he had his war hero record, plus the support or friendship of some people (like Palin or Huckabee) who were big with the grassroots. Romney has neither, and I just feel like he’s even more hated than Mac was. Maybe it’s just me.
But in 2008, McCain at least had a good backstory which the base could get behind “Four years ALAN!!!!”. He was a bona fide hero (while still being a craptastic pilot / officer – but thats beside the point). He actually sacrificed for his country and the base could wrap the flag around him. So while he was a bit of a RINO, he was palatable. Plus he was better than “That One”. Then he picked mooselini and it was then, and only then, that the base got realy excited.
But Mitt? He’s got zero backstory to latch on to. The best he has is corporate raider. Seriously. He’s wooden and insincere in a way that is bad for politicians (i.e. no “likability” to cover the expected insincerity people know all politicians have). He comes off as seriously out of touch (remember McCain in the grocery store, worse than that). He’s tone deaf beyond belief. And he doesn’t seem to get that he doesn’t connect with people so he keeps trying harder with the same shctick that doesnt work. He’s so eager to say something, anything that people will like him for “double guantanomo!” (then the eery hopeful smile towards camera saying “did I do that right?”).
All that said, any poll right now will tighten when the general starts. I think Obama has the inside track, but never say never. This election will be a race won by the least unenthused base. Both bases or tired and don’t like their candidate (although I think the D base likes Obama more than they are willing to admit – I mean, like the guy but maybe don’t think he has done enough).
And in the end, I think that is where Obama pulls this off. Tighter than 08, but still pulls it out. Obama just seems nice, genuine and caring, and compared to Mitt and in these difficult times, thats just enough to pull it off.
Can we just go ahead under the assumption that independent voters should be listed as people who generally don’t pay attention to what’s going on?
Darnell From LA
@Chris: No matter how you slice it Reagan was in the US Army during WWII and left the service as “Captain Reagan.” And Bush was in the service, wore the uniform and even flew a jet.
I think you’re confusing “Military experience” with “combat experience.” When I say Romney is the 1st GOP candidate since 1948 without military experience, that’s exactly what I mean. Since 1948, until Willard, every GOP nominee could at least say he “wore the uniform and served his country.” Romney can’t, and I think that is a net minus for him among many GOP voters.
Oh, and Mitt will totally pick a neanderthal right wing nut job as a running mate. The base will demand that much. But the candidate can’t be as crazy as mooselini. As someone else said upthread, its the Gov of Virginia on the underside of the ticket. Totally right wing fundy, state doing OK, enough of a “sane” veneer to make independents swoon, got the bog whistle down for the hate of others. Perfect fit for Mitt.
Romney is nowhere near the politician or candidate of McCain. He doesn’t have the biography or the level of public admiration. And he doesn’t have the years of long-standing relationships with members of the media who were willing to protect him and look the other way at his gaffes, misstatements and off-color jokes.