Karl Rove stands athwart the tracks of history and shouts Nay! He has the math! And we all know what Karl Rove’s math is worth. Now, if we’re talking about a “contested” convention…
A contested convention, on the other hand, would see no dark horse enter but none of the existing candidates arrive in Tampa with a 1,144 majority of delegates. Lots of wheeling and dealing would ensue, and after several ballots a nominee would emerge from the four current candidates…
__
… This last happened for the GOP in 1976. Neither President Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan had a majority when delegates arrived in Kansas City. The nomination was decided by the unpledged Mississippi delegation swinging in behind Ford. But there are far fewer delegations in 2012 that will arrive in Tampa unpledged…
Yeah, a dedicated operative-for-hire and lifelong ratfvcker can but dream. IIRC, the Kansas City convention didn’t work out so well for the eventual nominee, but it did cement the ascendency of the modern GOP’s Unholy Trinity — authoritarians, fundamentalists, and freemarketeers. And I’ve heard the gathering itself was quite the circus, as well. From the WSJ comments:
I can see it now , exclusivly on FOX, “American Idol, the GOP Convention”. Hosted by Tim Tebow and with expert analysis of Sarah P, Kim K. and a cast of thousands.
__
It would be a perfect “reality” ending to the GOP “reality show” this primary season has become. It would be a hoot!!
Hoot, you primates, hoot!
Q. Q. Moar
Since I was choking on a bong hit, I accidentally read that comment as “it would be the perfect reality ending show” which is accurate.
Martin
The real risk for this is Ron Paul. I think he’s got the delegate game dialed in, but it doesn’t sound like he’s interested in creating more convention drama. He’ll just flip them all to Romney in exchange for whatever token gesture he wants.
BGinCHI
Watching “Mr. Mom” on HBO.
This time it’s personal.
I can hear Levenson talking to the electrician, though: “yeah, 220, 221, whatever it takes.”
Chris
I’m still not totally clear on the concept but basically, if a brokered convention happens, then it’s the people in the smoke-filled rooms who get to pick the candidate, right?
And if that’s the case, then they’re going to pick Romney.
Which also means he’ll go into the campaign even more hobbled than he might otherwise be, because he’ll be marked as the guy who was picked by the GOP’s elites and not its voters – and for all their authoritarian-submissiveness, I think that does matter to those voters. Maybe it wouldn’t if they were handed someone else, but this is Romney.
Spaghetti Lee
What I find interesting about the Romney-Paul ‘alliance’ is that one thing I always hear from the Paul cultists is that, sure, he may have a few wacky ideas, but he’s sincere, and honest, and he doesn’t play that same-ol’ Washington vote-trading, influence-peddling, marriages-of-convenience game, no sir! Well, as it turns out, yeah he does. Maybe when he officially turns all his votes over to Romney there will be a freakout among the Paultards, but I haven’t seen one yet.
Violet
Texas doesn’t have a primary scheduled yet because they can’t get the redistricting done. Current suggested date for the primary is May 29th. But that sounds like it could easily be moved back.
Imagine if TX can’t get the redistricting done in time for the convention and shows up with all those un-pledged delegates. Governor Perry threw his support to Newt, who’s a non-player. Ron Paul is from TX. Who gets the delegates? Texas could be the kingmaker at the convention.
JoyfulA
Wonder what Paul wants? Maybe chairman of the Federal Reserve? That would shake things up.
Yutsano
@JoyfulA:
It would be irresponsible not to speculate.
Violet
@JoyfulA:
So he can shut it down? Doesn’t he want to eliminate the Federal Reserve?
Anne Laurie
@Martin:
Conventional wisdom till recently was that Dr. Paul wanted a prime-time slot to peddle his One True Conservalibertarian wares to the American public. But the hot new rumor is that Romney will have to accept young Rand Paul as his vice-presidential nominee if he wants the Paulista delegates to fall in line. All that Privileged Straight White Male Cluelessness assembled on one stage… as Barney Frank said on a related possibility, God does not love us Democrats enough for that to happen!
Suffern ACE
Thankfully they are having the convention in Florida where you can still smoke in bars. If they had it in New York or New Jersey it would be a smoke-filled area outside at least 20 feet from the entrance of a building. Which just doesn’t have the same cultural resonance.
David Koch
Before the Iowa caucus, some Professional Left losers (you know who they are) called on liberals to vote for Paul.
In yesterday’s debate, Paul said only immoral people use birth control.
How ya like them apples.
Jewish Steel
@Anne Laurie: VP Aqua Buddha? I am flush with pleasure at the thought.
Sargent Pepper's Spray
I love the idea of Paul as Chairman of the Fed, but I’d just like a little more time to stock up on gold and buy a large self sustaining farm in Mongolia before than happens.
Suffern ACE
@Anne Laurie: I doubt it. VPs aren’t that important until suddenly they are extremely important. I couldn’t imagine the bankers would take the risk on the younger Paul, even if Paul 2 swore on a stack of Bibles that he wouldn’t audit the fed and try to “take our monetary system back” were he suddenly to find himself in a position to do something about it.
Mark S.
@Yutsano:
Rand a heartbeat away? Dear god, that’s almost as scary as Sarah a heartbeat away.
In every primary I can remember, by this time a loser like Newt would have run out of money and dropped out. But in this post-Citizens United landscape, a loser like Newt has some sugar daddy billionaire who keeps writing him checks for some reason us non-billionaires cannot fathom.
Hell, even if lil Ricky starts losing, who knows if Aspirin Between the Knees will decide to keep giving him money. It’s the craziest shit in the world. It sure as hell isn’t democracy.
Martin
@Chris:
Sorta. The primary elections and caucuses in each state ultimately result in delegates being chosen to go to the national convention to cast ballots for the individual that won that delegate vote. So – a hypothetical: if each congressional district gets a delegate and my district votes for Romney and yours votes for Santorum, a person will be nominated to go to the convention from my district and cast a vote for Romney, while the delegate from yours will cast a vote for Santorum.
Now there are two kinds of delegates – binding and non-binding. A binding delegate has to cast a ballot for the person the won the popular vote in the district they represent. A non-binding delegate can cast a ballot for whoever they want. If the non-binding delegate from my district that voted for Romney goes to the convention and decides they really love dogs, they could decide to cast a ballot for Ron Paul instead – even if nobody from my district voted for Paul.
In order to win the nomination a candidate needs to win a majority of delegates. If 3 candidates make it through, it’s possible nobody will have a majority. That’s what causes a brokered convention. Generally, the super delegates – senators, governors, etc. will get together, notice that a brokered convention is shaping up, and work out a plan to avoid it – assuming there are enough super delegates to do so. So yeah, that’s your guys in smoke filled rooms right there. It shouldn’t ever go past that point. But let’s say it does. Then what happens is that the binding delegates are freed from their binding obligation and the convention basically turns into a big negotiating room. They keep taking ballot counts, with various changes to who everyone might take on as VP, or changes to the party positions, or in the most extreme case to a dark horse coming in and being nominated as President. If the Romney and Santorum and Paul camps can’t find common ground among those candidates, they could bring in some crazy libertarian Jesus anointed robot that would be acceptable enough to all parties to draw a majority vote.
Ultimately it’s the delegates that choose the candidate in all cases. The parties have moved to adopt rules that make it nearly impossible to have a brokered convention though – by making more delegates binding, by adding super delegates who can intervene early, etc. It’s not going to happen because Ron Paul doesn’t want it to happen, and this can only be brokered if either he chooses it to be, or if Noot has resurgence #3 here and everyone digs in. I don’t see it happening, as entertaining as it might be.
I guess the other path to a brokered convention is if the candidates turn out to be so completely toxic – not just stupid, but real scandals, stuff that would make it impossible for them to run or govern, then they might force a brokered convention just to bring in a new candidate to get around the rules. I don’t see that happening either.
Martin
@Anne Laurie: Yeah, I have to admit it’d be quite awesome to have it play that way. The religious right would take that very personally I think – if someone like Santorum showed up as a strong second only to not be represented in any way in the ticket.
MikeJ
@Martin: The funny thing is *every* convention used to be a brokered convention. Read a bio of Truman or either Roosevelt and see what wheeling and dealing got done back then.
Of course it was the same wheelers and dealers that refused to seat a mixed race delegation from Mississippi because the all white MS delegation was already there. That lack of democracy is what killed the old system, thank goodness.
Jebediah
@Violet:
FUCK Texas.
I don’t really mean that. I just wanted to see what it felt like to mess with Texas. Kind of meh, actually.
magurakurin
-What’s that?
-Snarklite.
-What’s up?
-Republican Primary campaign
-What’s that?
-Snarklite!
-I hate that. Every time I hear that something terrible happens.
-Voters don’t never see them or hear them, man.
-There they are!
-Revulsion’ll suck the air out of your damn enthusiasm.
-Something terrible is going to happen
-Smoke! Brokered Convention!
-Popcorn. Lots a popcorn over there.
-Let’s have a look, Chief
Frankensteinbeck
Rand Paul is one of my senators. I watched his campaign up close and personal. I participated in GOTV to try to stop him, but Kentucky does love its right wing jackasses. He is a much, much stronger candidate than Der Mitt. He was the only Tea Jerk smart enough to tack center, which he did with breathtaking speed and dishonesty. He can pretend to be sane, which neither his father nor Santorum can do, and he can pretend to be human, which Mitt cannot do. He’s the only person I can think of who would add significantly to Mitt’s ticket, bringing in some of the base without pissing off moderates too badly.
…this is sad. I’m saying that Rand Paul, who could barely win a Senate seat in The Hee-Haw State, is so much better a candidate than Mitt that he improves Mitt’s chances in the general. Yet this is how weak and feculent the GOP field is this year.
Yutsano
@magurakurin: Would you mind sharing please and thank you? :)
JoyfulA
@Yutsano: Oh, dear, Yutsano. That would a lousy outcome. I still junior’s campaign team stepping on that woman’s head. I don’t want Randy and friends any closer to power than they are.
JoyfulA
@Violet: yes, he says he would, Violet. I assume that as chairman, if the Senate would confirm him, that he wouldn’t have the direct power to actually shut it down, but he would have great fun tearing it apart, appointing all sorts of odd members, and setting new rules.
Arundel
Crikey fuck me. I switched channels from Rachel to Piers Morgan tonight. Where he was hosting Michael Reagan, Andrew Breitbart, some angryish “Real Housewives”-looking woman hawking an Obama hating “entrepeneur” book. Then, this attractive young African-American woman I hoped was there for “balance”. No, she was there from Glenn Beck’s “Blaze”, officially.
The topic was about what a lying liar Obama is generally, what an evil fucker he was to bail out the automobile industry in that underhanded way, saving a million jobs. According to the bitch selling the book, all this is invalid because Fiat owns a certain amount of shares in GM. Busted! Piers Morgan then says he’s always liked Fiat cars, personally in his driving experience of high-end automobiles.
Seriously, between this and Erin Burnett, it’s no joke to say that CNN is vying to become Fox Lite. What I said above was as best a description as I can do: Piers Morgan hosting four or five viciously partisan Republicans on his primetime show, and zero liberals, Democrats, progressives. CNN is even more perniciously awful than Fox, if that’s possible.
Up next! Anderson Cooper asks Ari Fleischer about how vaginally invasive some loose women’s screenings should be, and Wolf Blitzer has an exclusive! with John McCain, about when’s the best time to annihilate Iran. Spring, summer or autumn? CNN!
Chuck Butcher
I’d think, despite Rove, that a brokered/contested convention is pretty unlikely.
David Koch
Holy Cow
Bill Maher donated a $1,000,000 to Obama’s super pac.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/02/bill-maher-pledges-1-million-political-donation-to-obama-publicist/
Who knew his HBO show paid so well?
Southern Beale
Well good for Bill Maher. He’s criticized Obama plenty but when you look at the clown show that’s the GOP, it’s pretty obvious we’re fucked if any of those losers gets within spitting distance of the reins of power.
Good morning, folks. I couldn’t sleep.
Jamey
@Yutsano: I thought your link would go to an article advocating the repeal of Amendments 13 and 14.
MikeJ
@David Koch: It’s funny that there were all those stories about how little money Obama’s superpac had, and yes, they were all true. Of course the authorized committee had more money than any of the “big money” superpacs ($90ish million?), and they’ve finally started the push to pump up the superpac too.
Any run the numbers yet on how many people are already maxed to the authorized committee? Anyone who is maxed in Feb is probably going to be giving to the super.
Southern Beale
@Arundel:
Oh but that’s not possible. They’re the LIBERAL cable news show. That’s what everyone says, after all!
Of course it’s awful. It’s ALL awful.
Linda Featheringill
@Frankensteinbeck: #22
“Feculent?” Well, we wouldn’t want to be feculent, now would we?
:-)
Okay, so I had to look it up. Good word, actually. Maybe I can use it somewhere.
Linda Featheringill
@Southern Beale:
Good morning.
I frequently think of your electric car that uses electricity generated by the solar panels on your house. Cool!
Is the car all electric? And can you make enough power to run your house?
Yevgraf
Billionaires writing outsized checks in order to capture all functions of government is a direct result of low, low taxes.
Southern Beale
Here’s a round-up of some good news… figure we could use some today.
cmorenc
The true bitter irony about that 1976 GOP convention is that had Ford pulled off coming from behind to beat Jimmy Carter in the general election, it would have been the Republican party who would have been stuck for two generations with the onus for stagflation and the Iran hostage crisis, and we’d have likely seen Ted Kennedy rather than Ronald Reagan win the 1980 Presidential election. Reagan would have ended up as little more than a footnote to the history of the era.
Note: Ford only lost the national popular vote by 2% the electoral college by 297-240 in the EV, Carter winning several states by small margins. For two example, Ford only lost Ohio with 25 EV by 11,000 votes or 0.2@ and Wisconsin with 11EV by 35,000 or 1.6% and Mississippi by 14,000 or 1.8%.
What’s really fascinating is the pattern of the 1976 electoral map, which is enormously different than today. For example, Texas went to Carter, California to Ford, and all the deep south states which are currently deep-red states went to Carter.
rea
@Frankensteinbeck: Yet this is how weak and feculent the GOP field is this year.
Feculent, and yet, at the same time, feckless.
Cargo
I have been reading Nixonland and the Republicans are reminding me of nobody right now so much as the 1972 Democrats. Romney’s their Hubert Humphrey, Santorum is their George McGovern. The party has been taken over by its activists, and ideological purity is more important than a candidate who can win. Compromise is seen as weakness and nobody wants even the slightest hint of squishy moderateness. And a base that hates, hates, hates the incumbent President, and assumes their hate extends to much more of the population than it actually does.
And we saw how well that turned out in the ’72 general against a reasonably popular incumbent. Not saying Obama will flip all the states blue except Mississippi but it’ll be a pretty good ass beating if he’s up against Santorum.
Against Romney it looks more like Clinton vs Dole 1996.
The other thing about the 72 landslide is that as big as it was, Nixon had no coattails. The house added Dem seats and the senate didn’t flip. I suspect that is another parallel.
stevestory
I love when people put up an image that’s so small it’s useless. But I guess they have to think about those pricey pixels.