Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The willow is too close to the house.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. let’s win this.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

I really should read my own blog.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

A Senator Walker would be an insult to the state and the nation.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

This fight is for everything.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

You are here: Home / Economics / C.R.E.A.M. / Killer cross-over

Killer cross-over

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It looks like more independents and Democrats voted in the primary than was predicted. Polls have showed Romney winning Republicans and Santorum doing better with non-Republicans (especially Democrats).

OTOH, the electorate is skewing very old and turn-out looks low, which may help Romney.

I don’t buy the stuff about Jebmentum and Mitchmentum and brokered conventions, it seems to me that Romney can eventually carpet-bomb Santorum into submission with SuperPAC ads.

That’s all I’ve got. What are you hearing?

Update. Are you watching MSBNC? This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

Update. TPM says Romney by 3. Oh well.

Reader Interactions

212Comments

  3. 3.

    lamh35

    So okay, I assume most of us have seen Obama’s speech to UAW in Washington, so that happened at what about noonish?? So let’s imagine some independents, dems and even repub union members also heard the speech, it was indeed a barn burner and it got me pumped up. POTUS was in great form.

    Was that speech enough to get Michigan union voters and independent fired up enough to wanna mess with Romney’s head and actually decided to go ahead and cross-over in the primary. Wouldn’t that be missed by the exit polls?

    Are is that even a likely scenario?

  5. 5.

    dmsilev

    One of the dKos front pagers: “Robots making calls disparaging Mit Romney? That’s awful. That’s like… fratricide.”

  6. 6.

    JGabriel

    DougJ @ Top:

    … it seems to me that Romney can eventually carpet-bomb Santorum into submission with SuperPAC ads.

    I don’t know. At this point, I’m start to think the question is, “If Romney can carpet-bomb Santorum into submission, then why hasn’t he?”

    After all, Super Tuesday is only a week away. One would think Romney would have wanted Santorum marginalized by now.

    .

  7. 7.

    FuriousPhil

    I didn’t get a robocall from Lil’ Ricky today. Word around my little town is that people really didn’t give too much of a damn about it. The primary, that is.

    Also, the local paper published a photo of Romney Sr. and Jr. in 1970 during my town’s centennial. He was decked out in some kind of weird 19th century garb.

  8. 8.

    Sad Iron

    What am I hearing? Santorum is all for transvaginal ultrasounds as long as doctors use their god-given utensils. (Oh, and Rick still feels really, really guilty about that awesome night with the football player in college.)

  9. 9.

    lamh35

    @JGabriel: Because Romney’s put himself in such a box, that he can’t really “out-wingut” Santorum, and since he already has the modeerate “liberal” republican label on him in the GOP primary, he can’t even come from Santorums’s left in a bid to challenge Santorum.

    It might actually work if he did come at Santorum from the left, he has the money, so he can still win majority and coming from left might make it easier for him in the general.

  10. 10.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    his Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    Of course, as Tweety valiantly tried to stammer out, Santorum attacked Obama for saying what DeWine tried to say Santorum said. I heard a Sntorum spokesbot on MSNBC, I was in the car and didn’t catch his name, was trying to twist the thing Obama didn’t say into an anti-military statement, ’cause Real American 18 YOs join the military. As Rick Santorum didn’t and as I’m willing to bet the buffoon spokesbot didn’t.

  11. 11.

    jwb

    I think you are right about Romney’s SuperPacs carpet-bombing Santorum or whichever NotRomney appears next into submission. On the other hand, it gets interesting when that tactic taken over into the general election. How effective will it actually be? That would be the difference between the close election you called the other night (if it is effective) and a blowout (if it not effective).

  12. 12.

    Raven

    I’m trying to convince my bride that we have to vote for Ricky in the GA primary but she ain’t buyin.

  13. 13.

    rikyrah

    as I said in the other thread…I don’t give a rat’s ass about Little Ricky winning…I just want him to stay in the race long enough to force Willard into self-financing.

    Willard Romney has never risked ANYTHING. he always rigged everything he ever did. watching him burn through his own money will put a smile on my face.

  14. 14.

    Jeff Spender

    I’m with the family, in a small town near Lansing, watching the returns on MSNBC. We were inundated with robocalls today, and they were all hilarious.

    I couldn’t bring myself to cross-over vote for Santorum, though. Even if it was for the purposes of rat-fucking.

  19. 19.

    Southern Beale

    I early-voted today. Tennessee is an open primary but Santorum is leading here so I didn’t need to cast a ratfucking vote. Not that I would.

    There was a line because today was the last day to early vote. Everyone looked to be in the 70s. All of them brain-dead Republicans. One old guy talking about “the liberal media,” god they repeat these things like fucking robots, they hear it on Fox and just regurgitate it back out. And then this lady was going on about Sanotrum having “values” and his 7 kids. God. Sometimes I can’t wait for these old people to fucking die off already and leave the country to the next generation. Terrible thing to say but geez. They’re half the problem, with their fucking Social Security and Medicare they want the government to stay out of.

    Of course, we really just need to get young people engaged and get them to fucking VOTE. I’m sick of young people being all wrapped up in Gossip Girl and not giving a shit about Rick Santorum taking their birth control away.

  20. 20.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Mustang Bobby: not to true wingers. They would say that if there had been teachers (if not students) packing heat, they could have dropped that kid as soon as he drew.

  21. 21.

    jl

    ” This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen. ”

    Is he doing some kind of performance art?

  23. 23.

    starscream

    Didn’t Romney have to loan himself money in 2008? Am I remembering correctly?

    “This person has kids” is the dumbest argument you could make for a politician. I heard it so many times for Palin.

  25. 25.

    Steve

    You have to remember, there is no party registration in Michigan, so the meaning of “crossover” is a little murky. Someone might be a reliable Republican voter, but if they consider themselves “independent,” then that’s what they tell the pollster and there’s nothing anybody can do about it. And if the Republican brand is toxic nationwide and people start getting embarrassed to call themselves Republicans, then guess what, all of a sudden the polls show that more independents are voting, when it might actually be the exact same people as last time.

  26. 26.

    dmsilev

    11 percent reporting, and Frothy is up by 3 points (nearly 3,000 votes) over the Rombot. Maybe that wave of absentee votes got lost in the mail or something?

  28. 28.

    jl

    @Southern Beale: How come we didn’t hear anything about the Tennessee primary? What is so hot about MI and AZ primaries. TN has about same population as AZ.

    Maybe it is all branding. Why not call it the Tennessee Tussle, Twelve?

  30. 30.

    dmsilev

    You know, one thing we haven’t considered about a possible Frothy win. What will we do for trolls? We’re going to have to get a whole new set and break them in and everything.

    Sigh. So much to do.

  31. 31.

    Kiril

    @Southern Beale: I clicked through the links in the post to 538 and looked at Silver’s projection for next Tuesday. He has Santorum winning TN, OK, and OH, Gingrich winning GA and Romney only winning VA.

    It must be wrong; the universe doesn’t love me that much.

  32. 32.

    Veritas

    @dmsilev:

    On the contrary. Santorum’s strongholds are reporting first, with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back.

    With a lot of Santorum’s base (Grand Rapids) already reporting, he’s just barely holding on.

    Wait for Detroit and its suburbs to report fully.

  33. 33.

    JGabriel

    @lamh35:

    Because Romney’s put himself in such a box, that he can’t really “out-wingut” Santorum …

    I’m not buying it. I think Romney has tried to marginalize Santorum, but failed — due to his own gaffes, and to the GOP base’s longing for a candidate who is insane in the same way they are.

    .

  34. 34.

    Suffern ACE

    I think what matters in the race is winning confessional districts. Why do I get the feeling that Romney’s absentees are going to be concentrated in a few districts such that Santotum will end up with more electoral votes from the district count even if Romney wins the pop vote. The pop vote only gets you two extra delegates.

  35. 35.

    Dream On

    I’m hoping to attend the Washington State caucus on March 3rd, put on my best “conservative” fundie-suit attire and throw around totally insincere cliches like “personal responsibility”, “liberal media”, “entitlement reform”, doused with creepy shallow observations about the “fundamental decency” of Santorum versus how uncomfortable Obama and his arrogant wife make me. Then I hope to vote for any candidate who can draw this thing out. And yet, it makes me a little nervous to think there might have been some smart-ass German in the 1930’s who tried to do the same thing in Germany pre-Hitler. Because when you get right down to it, Romney is the only candidate who doesn’t terrify me, magic pajamas and all.

    The prankster makes me want to do this feat, but perhaps Democrats shouldn’t play with fire.

    Thoughts, anyone?

  37. 37.

    Quincy

    I think Santorum pulls it out in Michigan tonight, and at this point, depending on what you mean by carpet bomb into submission, I don’t see that happening either. I’d be beyond shocked if Santorum won the nomination, Mittens’ money and organizational edge should allow him to grind it out in the long run. And he will carpet bomb Santorum in a number of states. But if you meant that he could use his money to deliver a knockout blow before June, I think the ship is pretty close to having sailed on that. This is going to be long, bloody, wingerific spectacle that burns through Mittens’ warchest. The only chance I give Santorum is if the establishment publicly freaks out after tonight or Super Tuesday – like the anonymous Senator who reportedly said he’d publicly call for a new candidate if Romney lost Michigan – in a way that cripples Mitt. Ultimately, I don’t think they’re that dumb so we’ll end up with a humiliated Mitt who is loaning money to his own campaign and already be scapegoated by the wingers for their upcoming loss.

  38. 38.

    Spaghetti Lee

    @jl:

    She said early-voting. Is the TN primary on Super Tuesday?

    From what I’ve seen so far (and it is early) Romney is winning metro Detroit but getting killed out in the rural parts, particularly Dutch Country on the Lake Michigan coast. Northern Michigan and the UP are more even.

  39. 39.

    arguingwithsignposts

    @Veritas:

    with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back.

    I thought Romney’s base was the INSURMOUNTABLE absentee ballots?

  43. 43.

    hamletta

    @Southern Beale: Thanks be to God! I really didn’t want to vote for Frothy, even as a joke. I completely understand Raven’s wife/gf’s reluctance — or in my case, repulsion.

    Authoritarian Catholics make me stabby.

  46. 46.

    Dream On

    @Veritas:

    On the contrary. Santorum’s strongholds are reporting first, with Romney’s base in the Detroit metro area holding back. With a lot of Santorum’s base (Grand Rapids) already reporting, he’s just barely holding on. Wait for Detroit and its suburbs to report fully.

    Yes, because Detroit will just love Romney’s desire to let GM go bankrupt if necessary. And there are so many Republicans left in Detroit, after all.

    Methinks this is another snark attack. And as another wag posted a few weeks ago, the bank will no longer allow me to even try to submit one of your advice-driven checks.

  51. 51.

    MAC

    I just got a robo-call from the Romney campaign to dissuade Democrats from voting in the primary. Except I’m in Ohio. Apparently they don’t want whatever happened in Michigan tonight spreading to other states.

  52. 52.

    Steve

    @Veritas: Setting aside whether Grand Rapids is really Santorum’s base (it isn’t), Oakland County has reported 4% and Kent County has reported a whopping 3%. So no, most of Grand Rapids is not in.

  54. 54.

    dmsilev

    18% in and the Rombot has taken a narrow lead (first time tonight).

    He’s just barely breaking 40% in his home state. Feel the Mittmentum!

  59. 59.

    David Koch

    @dmsilev: The upper peninsula is Man-on-Dog territory, and its polls just closes, and hasn’t reported, as it’s in the the central time zone.

  60. 60.

    Jeff Spender

    If I wasn’t so sure Michigan would be going to President Obama in the general, I wouldn’t find this whole primary hilarious.

    Mitt really, really messed up with his let Detroit die rhetoric. I saw the UAW speech earlier. I live in a UAW family with many people working at the plants or living on dwindling pensions. They loved Obama’s speech, especially the parts about values.

    Still, I think it would be hilarious if Santorum managed to walk away with this.

  61. 61.

    Donald G

    @arguingwithsignposts:

    I thought Romney’s base was the INSURMOUNTABLE absentee ballots?

    The Detroit metro area is clearly Veritas’s final fallback position for eking out a VICTORY!

    When push comes to shove, as the night goes on and things don’t go Veritas’s way, he always plays the metropolitan card. It’s a good card to play since under normal circumstances, it works.

    But it’s really extra-delicious on those occasions when the urban vote doesn’t save Veritas’s ass from being unable to cash the checks that his mouth foolishly writes.

    ETA: As I was writing this post, Romney has jumped into the lead by 4000 votes. Let’s see if he can hold or expand upon it.

  63. 63.

    ChrisNYC

    i still think romney takes it — tonight and the whole thing. Santorum, his whole career, has not stood out front. He’s a grifter, like the rest. Ride on the extremes, scream and yell and slip away from accountability or responsibility. I even think his “boo college” and “sex is icky!” stuff might have been intentional. Guy doesn’t want the main play or geez to hold the bag for the crushing loss. he wants a cushy place at the head of the (revitalized) social con constituency. Lots of tv time, little work, and the all important dollares.

  66. 66.

    max

    @Dream On: Because when you get right down to it, Romney is the only candidate who doesn’t terrify me, magic pajamas and all.

    I find Romney as terrifying or more so than the rest. He’s the kind of guy that will kill a man, just to avoid making a payroll. Worse, I really don’t want to listen to four years of upper-class centrists explaining how ‘entitlement’ cuts and putting all social security money into the stock market is an economically efficient thing to do.

    So go vote for Dicky.

    max
    [‘Anything that screws up Republicans is good. All else is bad.’]

  67. 67.

    SiubhanDuinne

    This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    As Tweety said, “You’re articulate.”

    I’ve known DeWine’s name for a long time but haven’t paid much attention to him before now. Yeah, for a Santorum supporter he comes across as amazingly sane.

  69. 69.

    The Dangerman

    Hold on, I thought I could take a Romney VICTORY to the bank. A slam dunk. A bunny (for you non-ballers, a bunny is a layup).

    Veritas wouldn’t lie to me, would he/she/it?

    (Edited for Gender and Species neutrality)

  72. 72.

    Veritas

    @Dream On:

    Uh, if I can quote, he said “So sad, girls only”. Sorrow over the fact she’s a lesbian says she’s male. Now go shove your politically correct horseshit up your ass, fuckstick.

  75. 75.

    Palli

    ” This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen. ”

    Oh, please…DeWine is a pill, as my mother would say. An empty head passing as an egghead. He is pussy footing around Kasich while his son, Kevin DeWine fights Kasich headon (but only in republican political power circles, he isn’t fighting for Ohio people). Mike DeWine is wasting Ohio taxpayers money joining 5 other states fighting the contraception insurance issue- he was a bad senator, he is a bad Attorney General. He lost his Senate seat roundly to Sherrod Brown, thank heavens.

  76. 76.

    Dream On

    @Raven: You’re right. Whiners are gonna whine, haters are gonna hate, and trolls are going to eat grubs, chase children and troll away on the internet.

    Point taken.

  79. 79.

    Donald G

    And Romney’s lead is growing. Veritas may end up going to bed happy tonight.

    He’s overdue for some good news.

  83. 83.

    Raven

    @Veritas: It was clever, was it not, of the universe to name, after pie, the constant which ties the radius of a pie (the side of a slice) to the circumference of the pie (the number of inches of foil you’ll need to cover the edge after the first 15 minutes) ? Well, I think it’s clever, anyway.

  84. 84.

    glitter

    @Verispaz

    Now go shove your politically correct horseshit up your ass, fuckstick.

    Awwww. U mad, bro?

  88. 88.

    Spaghetti Lee

    Romney’s pulling out in front, but (caveat) it’s been precincts from Oakland/Livingston counties and not much elsewhere trickling in, so make of it what you will. He’s only up by 3 points.

  90. 90.

    dmsilev

    @Viva BrisVegas: Turns a safe-GOP seat into something that’s probably either a toss-up or lean-D. Means that they’d probably need to pick up one additional seat somewhere else to flip the Senate.

  93. 93.

    chopper

    Jesus, this choad is barely going to beat rih santorum in his own fucking home state. much less top 50. this guy is terminally incapable of sealing the fucking deal. we’re going through august all right.

  94. 94.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Raven: Those have been up for a while, at least along the Peachtree Industrial Boulevard corridor. Haven’t seen one recently (or at least, haven’t paid attention) but I remember seeing them every day on my way to work for a while last fall.

  95. 95.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @Veritas:

    I think you mean “assume sex.” Gender is a grammar term. Male/female is “sex”.

    I’ve always seen gender as the cultural expression of sex, i.e. someone can be female gender and male sex and vice versa.

  96. 96.

    jheartney

    Glad the troll could make it. Watching it retreat from one fallback position to the next will help while away the hours.

  97. 97.

    Jeff Spender

    @lamh35:

    You’re pretty much going to want to watch the Detroit suburbs. The counties around Grand Rapids (I couldn’t actually name them, though I’ve lived in Michigan for 24 years because, well, it’s Grand Rapids) are also important. The Upper Peninsula is probably where Santorum will perform strongly.

    I would suspect, also, that my own Washtenaw County will produce interesting results, as that is the home of my beloved Ann Arbor and the most liberal area in the state (also, it’s the most literate, smartest, and best city for singles in the U.S.)

  99. 99.

    lamh35

    Question: Is there anyway of knowing whether or not these early returns are from absentee ballots which should skew more toward Mittens?

  102. 102.

    Linda Featheringill

    @Dream On:

    Crossing over for Santorum:

    I understand the feeling. The whole idea makes me nervous. What if, heaven help us, Savonarola should actually win? And I helped him get there? And then he turns loose his God-forsaken id and all hell breaks loose? How much of that would I have assisted?

    Scary.

  103. 103.

    dmsilev

    @chopper: He’s on track to do about one or two percentage points better than he did against McCain in 2008. And McCain, for all his problems, was one heck of a better candidate than Santorum.

    Apparently, Mitt Romney has gotten worse at campaigning over the last four years.

  104. 104.

    SuzieC

    @SiubhanDuinne: DeWine and Sanctorum were good buddies in the Senate. Both conservative Xtians with large families. Both lost their Senate seats in 2006. A bonding experience.

  107. 107.

    Spaghetti Lee

    @Jeff Spender:

    Romney’s up big in Ann Arbor now. I kind of expected Paul to do (relatively) big there, but he’s actually under what’s he’s getting statewide.

  112. 112.

    Spaghetti Lee

    @Raven:

    Well, no. He’s a West Bloomfield homeboy. About as similar to the rest of Michigan as Kenilworth is to the rest of Illinois.

  115. 115.

    Jeff Spender

    @Spaghetti Lee:

    That’s what I find surprising. I would expect Ron Paul to do very well in Ann Arbor and Washtenaw. I would also expect Romney to do very well there as well.

    @Raven:

    Not really, no.

  116. 116.

    Spaghetti Lee

    @Jeff Spender:

    And the upper Peninsula is going for Rick, but not by much: 2-3 points in most counties. Santorum’s winning biggest in the southwestern part of the state.

  117. 117.

    BruceFromOhio

    This Mike DeWine guy is good, the most convincing Santorum spokesman I’ve ever seen.

    His soul is tacked up in Satan’s upstairs bathroom, where The Dark One occasionally uses it to buff his talons.

    @SiubhanDuinne: It’s his eminence front. Think of him as a barnacle in search of another hull ever since the SS GWBush hit the rocks.

  118. 118.

    lamh35

    So it looks like Romney’s gonna win Michigan. Twitter saying that Mittens campaign is gonna use the robocalls against Santorum.

    But if Romney wins won’t it make the robocalls mute?

    ETA: BTW, I think Santorums knocking of JFK ruined his support among Catholics. Exit polls showing Romeny beating Santorums with Catholics.

  119. 119.

    Raven

    @Spaghetti Lee: Yea but it ain’t really his home state. I was born in Urbana, lived in North Chicago, moved to LA in 57, back to Villa Park in 60, army 66, back to Urbana 69-84 and Georgia for the rest. I guess I could claim Illinois but it would be baloney. I just don’t think that shit means anything.

  121. 121.

    Dream On

    @Linda Featheringill:

    What if, heaven help us, Savonarola should actually win? And I helped him get there? And then he turns loose his God-forsaken id and all hell breaks loose? How much of that would I have assisted?

    For sure – Santorum is the Inquisitional bigot that Jello Biafra has been warning us about for 30 years in his music and words. The fundie hair, the bizarre repressed sweater vest, the whole deal. America really could end up looking a lot like a McNaughton painting.

  123. 123.

    SiubhanDuinne

    @Raven:

    I’ve thought and thought about that. I think i’ll just freak out all the little old lady poll-watchers in my ultraconservative Gwinnett County precinct, and request a Dem ballot and vote for Obama.

  124. 124.

    some guy

    VICTORY is ours conmrades, VeritASS HAS TOLD US SO.

    watching Romney win in a squeaker tonight in MI, then lose Ohio and Kentucky as he wins the Old Dominion State (Gingrinch and Frothy ain’t be on da ole time ballot) will warm the cockles of my heart. let 1,000 Media Bookers Bloom, this is gonna be a Long March, comrades

  126. 126.

    FlipYrWhig

    Thadeus McCotter is one seriously weird dude. He was like a character being played by John Malkovich after taking a handful of unlabeled pills.

  131. 131.

    Steve

    @Raven: I am from Michigan and I think Romney’s home-state advantage is legit. The name means something politically and he understands the local details better than an outsider. I’m not saying it’s like, you know, Tim Tebow in Florida, but I do think it gives him an edge and it’s not bullshit.

  133. 133.

    Elizabelle

    Watching a PBS documentary on The Amish.

    They’re driving around in an SUV and considering undeveloped property in Colorado. Kid you not.

    Now for teenagers’ Rumspringa. (“Running around.”)

  134. 134.

    DanielX

    Reprint, but I can’t help it.

    Mitt Romney, the man who never had a principle he couldn’t give up for the sake of expediency and votes.

    Mittens: Go home. Nobody likes you – fuck, dude, most of the people in your own party don’t like you and they’re supposed to be your supporters. There’s not enough money in the world to buy enough votes to make you Preznit, not to mention that if you blow the family wad your own kids will put out a contract on your ass. Do something else that you might actually enjoy. Go buy a private island. Buy a private jet. Buy a Ferrari. Hoover up a ton of Bolivian marching powder and hire some hookers. Face it, you’ve been running for Pres full time since 2006 and people think you suck; they think you’re a rich Wall Street prick who lies like a rug and the longer you run the more people think you suck. Give it up and go do something else (constructive or not), because this thing you so deeply desire isn’t going to happen.

    (Besides, if Little Ricky gets the nomination he’ll not only lose big but the Rs will probably lose the House too, but we won’t get into that because we’re too nice.)

  138. 138.

    Jeff Spender

    @Steve:

    I agree with this. I think a lot of people remember George Romney as being a decent governor and that Romney name helps Mitt a lot.

  143. 143.

    baldheadeddork

    I just looked up the 2012 Republican primaries on Wikipedia and RCP. If their information is right, it’s possible and moving to probable that no one can win this nomination.

    Go and check out the delegate allocation. A candidate needs 1144 delegates to lock up the nomination. In all the remaining primaries, there are just 417 delegates in winner-take-all states. 109 of those are in states with open primaries, 89 of those in Wisconsin and New Jersey where are enough organized Democrats to affect the outcome.

    Everything else is proportional by state results, winner-take-all by congressional district, or chosen at a state convention based on caucus results. As long as there are at least three people in the race and the “winner” is kept below 50%, it will be impossible for any of the four to get to 1144.

    If the calendar were spread out evenly between now and late June there might be time for superpac funders to turn off the money spout. But twenty states will vote in the next two weeks and when it’s done 979 of the 2268 non-NRC delegates will have been chosen. Even if it becomes a two man race by March 15, the stronger of the remaining two candidates would have to post blowout wins in all of the remaining contests to get 1144.

    That’s a simple run of the numbers, but when you put names to this the chances of no one winning skyrockets. Super Tuesday will be brutal for Romney. He might not even win Massachusetts if Democrats turn out in large numbers to vote against him. The next two weeks are no easier for him. He’ll be overachieving to win more than three (Illinois, Massachusetts, Vermont) of the 22 races in March. Santorum and Gingrich will be fighting for the wins and it’s unlikely that one will break out over the other. Trading wins should be enough to keep their SuperPAC financiers writing checks. Last, the extraordinary slime and animosity between the three will make it unlikely that anyone will drop out and throw their support behind anyone else.

    Tonight was Romney’s last, best chance to lock this up. Had he crushed Santorum in Michigan he would have carried some momentum into Super Tuesday and his SuperPAC’s could have buried Gingrich in enough states to cripple Newt after that. Instead we’ve got three dwarfs, none of them strong enough to knock anyone else out.

  144. 144.

    Raven

    @Steve: Chieu Hoi (Open Arms) was a program where VC/NVA could surrender and we’d give em money and shit. I was surrendering to you with a better perspective.

  145. 145.

    St. Trinian's grad

    @Dream On: If it were me, I’d pay attention to that little voice. I recall polls giving Alex Sink a comfortable lead over Rick Scott, and here we are with The. Worst. Governor. Ever.

  146. 146.

    Dream On

    I still remember my dad shaking his head in bemused non-surprise when the Washington State caucus voted for Pat Robertson in 1988. There were not a lot of Democrats crossing party lines to vote in that caucus – that silly Robertson kiss was just the way the state Republican party was, and in many ways, still is. The state GOP’s complete inability to find winning moderate candidates has led to a strong domination by Democrats here since at least 1984. Even their new bright GOP hope for governor – McKenna – I just don’t see it. Say hello Governor Inslee. McKenna will be this year’s Dino Rossi – close but no cigar.

    As for the caucus next week, I wouldn’t count out Santorum to win here, or even Ron Paul to make a major showing. Sinc e the caucus system takes hours on a precious Saturday anyway, only Santorum & Paul supporters will have the energy to stick around. It really could turn into one of those “Ron Paul is stealthily amassing the true delegates” scenarios.

    Still thinking about going, though, as I like reflecting foolish arguments back at fools. Perhaps that makes me insincere. But I’m glad we’re all still typing away, as opposed to the raging a-hole who seems to have fallen off his troll bar-stool for the night.

  147. 147.

    scav

    That was simply the saddest little squeak of victory. Our chew toy has really really lost his bounce. It’s like the beepy watch going under the water in Local Hero.

  151. 151.

    Donald G

    @scav:

    That was simply the saddest little squeak of victory. Our chew toy has really really lost his bounce. It’s like the beepy watch going under the water in Local Hero.

    Romney’s now opened an almost 23,000 vote lead over Sick Rantorum in MI.

    You’d think that after all the embarrassment he’s suffered this primary season, Mitt’s puppy-dog would hang around to gloat.

    I guess the cage atop the car-roof is waiting for its journey to the Super-Tuesday states and the next round of Romney losses.

    ETA: Now it’s up to a 28,000 vote lead.

  154. 154.

    stickler

    Does the Michigan GOP count votes like every other state so far has done? That is to say, are they going to tell us in a week’s time, “oh, hey, here’s a county or two we forgot to include! Whoopsies!”

    It’s not like it hasn’t happened already multiple times. And usually (hmmm!) to Willard’s benefit.

  157. 157.

    Dream On

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional? Knowing that might change the perception of tonight no matter who “wins”. And a Romney 3% win in Michigan would be truly pathetic, and should set off alarm bells for his camp.

  159. 159.

    Donald G

    @stickler:

    Does the Michigan GOP count votes like every other state so far has done? That is to say, are they going to tell us in a week’s time, “oh, hey, here’s a county or two we forgot to include! Whoopsies!”

    In the states where Romney was later found not to have won after all, the vote tallies were a lot closer than the almost 30,000 vote difference we’re seeing in Michigan tonight.

    As the old saying goes, “If the vote ain’t close, then they can’t cheat.”

  162. 162.

    The Dangerman

    @Dream On:

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional?

    Arizona is WTA; Michigan is proportional.

    Oh, my bad, you wanted someone credible (slinks away).

  163. 163.

    Martin

    @Valdivia:

    why is everyone calling it for Romney if they’re still counting votes?

    They use exit polling to project what the vote will be in each precinct. They can then count what’s come in, look at the exit poll model to see what the remaining votes should be, and when it’s far enough outside the margin of error, then they’ll call it. It’s much more reliable than people want to believe that it is.

  164. 164.

    Elizabelle

    @Martin:

    Hee hee. I remember all those walls with pictures of JFK up.

    Don’t imagine Pennsylvania is plastered with photos of Rick Santorum.

  166. 166.

    Karen

    So Romney won…is there any possibility that the same thing that happened in Iowa will happen here? Will there suddenly be a case of Santorum winning but later?

  167. 167.

    Dream On

    @The Dangerman: No, you’ll do. Seriously, thanks indeed.

    So what the headlines tomorrow should read is, “Mittster & the Grand Inquisitor tie for delegates in Romney’s boyhood state. Each claim victory.”

  168. 168.

    MAC

    @BruceFromOhio I know it’s a closed primary in Ohio but after that call, I’m not so sure the Romney campaign know it’s a closed primary. Unless they really think Democrats are going to ignore all the other races and switch their registration to Republican just to mess with the Republican presidential primary.

  169. 169.

    Valdivia

    @Martin:
    Thank you! In international voting observing the rule is never to trust exit polls as projection of votes, but base only on quick count at precinct level. This is the only reason I asked. Also I was out til now and had no idea what was going on.

  170. 170.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Jesus, I flipped over to watch half an episode of 30 rock, and Rikki is still jabbering? I unmated long enough to hear him say “faith”.

  171. 171.

    Martin

    @Valdivia:

    In international voting observing the rule is never to trust exit polls as projection of votes, but base only on quick count at precinct level.

    Our media overlords have other ideas. My main problem with how they do it is that they have an vested interest in cutting it as thin as they can to scoop the other networks, and then they fuck up – like they did in FL in 2000 and numerous other places – Indiana, Missouri – I can remember a few others.

  172. 172.

    trollhattan

    @The Dangerman:

    On NPR they said Michigan was proportional, but somehow based on congressional districts not total vote statewide. I confess I didn’t completely understand–does that mean there are N delegates/district and therefore, a relative few votes will take a mostly Democratic disctrict?

    Regardless, the outcome is less than convincing for Willard.

  173. 173.

    Martin

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist:

    Jesus, I flipped over to watch half an episode of 30 rock, and Rikki is still jabbering?

    Yes, he’s going on now about how Obama is too smart and well-bred to run America. Cannot make this shit up.

  174. 174.

    ChrisNYC

    just want to say how much I despise santorum. direct fricking beneficiary of everything he now rails against. really really want to punch him in the face.

  178. 178.

    Martin

    @trollhattan: Michigan was supposed to have 59 delegates but that was reduced to 30, from what I understand, because they moved their primary forward.

    The formula is 2 delegates per CD (14 CDs) plus 2 for the state winner. So, Mitt won MI, but it only carries half the weight that it should.

  182. 182.

    max

    Well, it’s a bit of a bummer that Romney won, but he’s weak so that’s good.

    More weeks of upscale folks telling us there’s no way anyone but Romney can win, and so we should just give it to him.

    max
    [‘Going to keep my fingers crossed for a Super Tuesday meltdown of epic proportions.’]

  183. 183.

    trollhattan

    @Martin:

    There it is. Me understand now; thanks for the explanation!

    No wonder veritas hasn’t oozed over here to crow. Crow not especially tasty.

  184. 184.

    Suffern ACE

    @Martin: Catholics have probably encountered a Santorum or two on their spiritual journeys, in Catholic camp or high school or whatnot, and knowing the type, will throw in with the mormon and take their chances.

  188. 188.

    Steve

    Here is a great nugget from the exit polls. Primary voters were about evenly split on supporting or opposing the auto bailout, which isn’t really surprising. But Romney, the most famous bailout opponent on Earth, did 5 points better among the voters who supported the bailout than he did with the voters who opposed it!

  189. 189.

    Elizabelle

    “Democrat Congress. Failed presidency .

    These days when he’s not spending our money or infringing our rights ….”

    Obama unresponsive to our people and would be unrestrained in a second term …

    gag.

  193. 193.

    ladies auxiliary fuckhead (a/k/a eemom)

    oh FUCK.

    I confess, I am brutally disappointed. I confess I wanted Santorscum to win to fuck them up even more. I confess. Now please kill me. kthxbai.

  194. 194.

    Suffern ACE

    @Steve: Well, Santorum also opposed the bailout aned screamed that loud and clear. So all things being equal, why choose Santorum?

  196. 196.

    Steve

    @Elizabelle: Voters making under 100K went mostly for Santorum. Romney won because of a 2-1 margin with voters making more than 200K! 200K is a lot anywhere, but people making 200K in Michigan (as opposed to, say, New York City) are doing incredibly well. The last thing Romney’s base is concerned about is an inability to get health care.

  197. 197.

    baldheadeddork

    @Dream On:

    Can anyone here – someone credible, no not that jerk – tell me if the delegates involved tonight are winner-take-all or proportional?

    Arizona is winner-take-all.

    Michigan has 30 delegates. Two are at-large and are awarded proportionally by the statewide results. The rest are winner-take-all by the results in the fifteen congressional districts.

    I don’t know how the delegates are assigned to the CD’s. Republicans in some states give more delegates to districts where Republicans are stronger. (The national GOP assigns state delegate allotments this way, Georgia has 50% more delegates in the Republican primary than New Jersey.) If this is how the Michigan GOP does business, Santorum will clean up on delegates. Romney’s votes are concentrated in CD’s that are Democratic strongholds.

  201. 201.

    Martin

    I have to say, I really like Steve Schmidt. For the guy that ran McCain’s campaign, he doesn’t bring the crazy. I can see why Rachel likes him on her show.

  202. 202.

    Cacti

    Mittens wins Arizona easily.

    No surprise there. Cult loyalty overrides all other concerns for Mormon voters.

  204. 204.

    El Cid

    TPM had some crosstabs showing that once again, Mitt really shines in locking down the $200K/yr+ vote, something like 55-29% over Santorum.

    It was the same way in a number of earlier contests. Mitt gets the votes of those earning a few hundred thousand. The rest of the demographics vary from place to place.

  205. 205.

    jonas

    Santorum is, like all the others before him, a not-Romney also-ran whose pan flash will soon dim. He energizes the real nutballs, but in the end, most Republican primary voters, along with their billionaire overlords, are going with the guy they know has something just above a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Obama. Of course, the current knock-out, drag-out between Santorum and Romney is great for popcorn sales and all, but Santorum will eventually implode after challenging Romney to a trial by ordeal to prove his orthodox faith or something.

    Romney will be the nominee. Everyone will hate it, but he will be the nominee. But I think Obama, as always, “has got this.”

  206. 206.

    David Koch

    lemme get this straight.

    Romney will barely hang on to his home state after outspending his retarded opponent 3 to 1.

    Got it.

    Can you imagine if that was a Democrat. For example, if somehow Andrew Cuomo barely held off the retarded Carl Paladino, instead of beating him by 30 pts.

  207. 207.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Suffern ACE: Sounds about right to me. Pope Frothy I doesn’t talk like a Catholic. He talks like a megapastor, and my guess is that vomiting on Saint JFK of Marilyn-Banging’s grave was anathema, even to conservative Catholics.

  208. 208.

    gaz

    *shakes head*

    people, I’ve said all along, Romney will win the nom and lose the general.

    damnit people, this stuff is like wrestling (at least that crap that was around on teh tubez when I was growing up). the results were determined in advance.

    This is just a bunch of mental masturbation

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