Nate Silver’s model has Michigan as a toss-up between many Cadillacs Romney and proud ratfucker Santorum (who admitted joining forces with the Daily Kos by robocalling Democrats for crossover votes). The toss-up is driven by a late frothy surge, for which Nate gives 8 possible reasons.
Eight is definitely enough, but I think he left one out: the base is lapping up the Santorum they were served over the weekend. College is for snobs. Separation of church and state makes him want to vomit. He’s reclaimed his mealy-mouthed debate performance with a dose of pure 27% proof rhetoric.
It really isn’t that complicated. What’s left of the Republican party will brook no restriction to their god-bothering, and they want their ignorance celebrated. Santorum served up a warm, wet dose of both, and his reward is that one of Mitt Romney’s many home states is going down to the wire.
So you’re saying that Santorum is coming from behind. Is that correct mistermix.
hmm.. nice article
@gocart mozart: Not infrequently, however, santorum is left behind.
The Republicans have been calling our President names ranging from h.itler to Soc$alist since he was elected. Santorum calls the President a snob and the media is all over it. Snob is about the nicest thing the Republicans have called Obama but the news media takes notice. Why the uproar?
Edit…Since I’m in moderation, I have copied and pasted a corrected version of my comment.
c u n d gulag
Rick’s just pissed that the times have passed him by – by a good 4 or 5 Centuries, at least.
He would have been a great foot soldier in The Crusades.
Or a lackey during the Inquisition, handing tools to the torturers, mopping-up the blood and bodily fluids, and lighting the wooden f*ggots for the pyre’s, dreaming they were homosexuals he was setting ablaze.
Ah, what fun THAT must have been, eh, Rick?
Marcellus Shale, Public Dick
i will be curious as to the latino turn out in arizona for all gop candidates.
republicans will soon find out, santorum is like toothpaste, there is no putting it back.
(Hopefully) a presidential election that the GOP loses where they probably should have won. If Romney wins the nomination he’ll really look like a jackass when he tries to tack back to the center.
What if he had called Santorum on his nonsense? At this point, it really take s brain-dead slob to buy into Santorum’s rhetoric. I think Romney would be sitting pretty if he positioned himself as the one who could beat Obama. The media would have lapped up any sign of centerism from any Republican, because then they could have painted Obama as the far leftist and Romney as the moderate.
Fortunately, the Republicans are all in on the “Obama is over head” narrative, and totally believe it. And hopefully they will continue to let the 27% determine the direction they take.
Well, even if Ricky wins Michigan, by admitting he’s worked with Democrats, hasn’t he just doomed whatever chance he had?
I mean – working with Democrats?! That’s insane.
These have been bad times. Bad times scare people. Some scared people look for scapegoats and easy answers. For an overly ambitious serpent like Santorum, these are low-hanging apples.
Obama was correct in 2008 when he was speaking to that fundraiser in San Francisco.
@Keith G: Thanks.
The viciously far-right GOP primary campaign has left the eventual nominee with no viable strategic option for the general election campaign but to attempt to drag the entire electorate dramatically rightward and dumbward, because they’ve not merely burned the bridges leading back to the middle but left a voluminous audio and video of their deliberate arson. The problem with that strategy is that they’ve burned the bridges behind them which they need for most more moderate voters to cross. Doubtless Karl Rove and Frank Luntz will try mightily to help them with a crash construction project, but hopefully most voters will see this as another attempt to build a bridge to nowhere.
@redshirt: If Santorum wins, he can say he’s the only one that can beat President Obama.
It’s Roger Williams vs John Winthrop all over again.
Nothing has changed in the past 400 years.
I’m reasonably certain Nate Silver has put more thought into Michigan than the Santorum campaign itself.
@gocart mozart: well, he’s been surging from behind for some time now :)
I see red every time that “What a snob!” clip is played on the news. My conservative uncle, product of a good public school in the 1950’s, is starting to make noises about how states shouldn’t have to provide public education if they don’t want to. It boggles my mind how easily some people can be led.
I’d make some sort of sarcastic comment about how even all of Ayn Rand’s heroes went to college, except that, despite all the right-wing blather, Santorum’s target audience has never heard of her. Because reading anything other than the Living Bible is also for snobs.
I agree with your analysis, they eat up the crazy shit.
either way, santorum is creating a big mess.
@cmorenc: i think, given their choices, a lot of republican voters are going to stay home – will be interesting to see a snapshot of the voter turnout decline in each state once this is over
@Marcellus Shale, Public Dick:
I was going to make a joke about pushing Santorum back in but I’m just too decent of a guy!
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
WE get a peak at life in Rick Santorum’s murrica.
@Nicole: for the life of me, i don’t understand how people who have directly benefited from Democratic policies just don’t want others to have the same advantages; i know of at least 3 disabled people right now who would probably be living in the streets were it not for social programs and they hate Obama and Dems. also, their children and other family members benefit by not having to worry about at least some of the cost of caring for their disabled family members.
those three words don’t really belong together.
Davis X. Machina
@harlana: Smells like team spirit. Go, Big ‘R’!
I’m emailing my MI friends to get out and support Rih today. I’m getting some push back that Paul would be the least horrible Republican and so we should support him. Several problems with that: 1) Paul is no better, and for the economy he would be much worse. 2) The point is to prolong Mitt’s agony by making a real race of it, so we support his closest challenger.
I’m ready to go tape over the Obama bumper sticker on my car and hit the polls.
ladies auxiliary fuckhead (a/k/a eemom)
If Santorum wins, might not the establishment goopers unleash some torrent of fury about the Democrats “stealing” the election?
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
Just a question of money. Santorum is so good at throwing red meat to the lunatics it is truly scary.
Thing is with Rih, we can finally destroy the Repukes and then salt the earth over the party’s ashes… His views are so anti-american, so foul to freedom, but they constitute what the party is currently about so I say bring it…
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@Nicole: Fixed to provide the salient bit of info driving your uncle’s decision making.
Far too many folks are looking at the public schools and wanting to defund them. These are usually the same people that file lawsuits against the schools for giving a kid a B+ instead of an A. Yes, it happens, more often than you think. My wife’s school is dealing with one right now.
Sukk on this Suzanne and Maftoon Khalid.
Romney is not a christian.
you knew it was coming.
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
Lordy sakes alive, as my dead granny used to say.
David Brooks springs the “W” word
Gosh, David. You folks were all in with the Southern Strategy and all those “winger’ votes from former dems in the south, now you wanna call these upstanding GOP voters awful names. Fo shame. Reap/Sow. And watch yer backside.
And not only that, it seems pretty obvious that Paul is supporting Romney since none of his negative ads has been aimed at Romney. So by supporting Paul, we would actually be helping Romney. No thank you!
I don’t understand that either.
I know a couple, my age, both uninsurable due to health problems. The husband works like a fiend to keep the family insured. Wife hasn’t worked outside the home since the Reagan administration.
They’re GOP and “good Catholics.” (With three college/grad school age daughters!)
My friend was sneering at how long Canadians (!) have to wait for procedures.
I really let her have it and, sadly, no longer think as highly of her. I really thought she was smarter than that.
We’ve been friends since junior high.
I don’t get it.
@DougJarvus Green-Ellis: c’mon MasterTroll, the GOP has medieval ensoulment as part of the official party platform.
Its like inverse social darwinism or…. Selection For Stupid.
want be a republican candidate? Flash your stupid chops.
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
Gawd hep me. I’m fucking loving this election so far. “Noble Beast” “Opossum Republicans”, I hope somebody is writing all this down. David is so cute when he gets all pissy.
@harlana: Me either. It requires a level of cognitive dissonance I can’t begin to comprehend.
I really think there’s something to the whole childhood trauma making a person a right-winger. I know so many who really did have crappy childhoods, in that their parents were very distant. Maybe when you grow up with a lack of love, you end up angry, and the right-wing offers an outlet- you can be angry at all these “other people” so as to avoid dealing with what’s really going on inside.
Which is not to say that lefties all had ideal childhoods; mine wsa no picnic. But I did know that my parents, messed up as they were, loved me.
Total woo speculation, I know. But it gives me more peace than just acknowledging some people are total assholes. I’d rather think they’re assholes with cause. I prefer feeling sorry for them to hating them.
the latest from Willard:
who is lying to?
he’d sell his Mama for a block of votes:
look at sully and dr. pinker.
its just Murrikkkan conservatives that are getting dumber, not “humanity”…via self-selection.
Whether true or not, I have yet to meet a single Canadian who wants to abandon their health care system and take ours instead.
@chopper: 54 Proof Crazy?
You know, at least when the Republicans were having a debate every other night, they couldn’t get away with saying completely idiotic things like the JFK line without being challenged on it.
I am confident, although maybe not as confident as Veritas, that Romney will win Michigan. The PPP poll found that early absentee voters went for Romney by a 62-29 margin. That’s an awful lot of votes to lock up, and I don’t think Santorum will overcome that headstart even with the benefit of a strong finish. I won’t be surprised if it’s within a few percentage points, though. This is all just for show because unless the Republicans can find a nominee who supported the auto bailout, they are going to get destroyed in November.
@Marcellus Shale, Public Dick:
File under words that don’t belong together; similarly, santorum/mouthwash, etc.
@samara morgan: The pastor is a tad late since Franklin Graham indicated the same thing. When asked about Romney and whether or not he was Christian, he answered he’s a Mormon.
@JPL: so did rick perry’s pastor.
WECs wont vote for Mormon Romney when there is an alternative.
And WECs are 50% of the GOP base…
@Steve: wanna bet meh?
Romney is gunna lose Michigan. I see it in my quantum crystal ball.
@Nicole: On my good days I feel sorry for them but on my bad days…
As the mom of a kid with a disability, and as a resident of a rather conservative area, I meet lots and lots of hard-core Republicans who also happen to be parents of children with disabilities. They could not manage a day without the help they get from government and government-funded programs. Yet there they are, with tea-party candidate signs on their lawns.
A few weeks ago, many in the know were listing Michigan as a swing state and declaring that Michigan would be a major battleground state for the general election.
Now, after seeing the GOP candidates up close and personal, Michigan is no longer listed as a battleground state and it’s considered reliably blue. Go figure.
The longer this thing drags on the better.
I’m gonna give Willard the benefit of the doubt and say “Good for you”.
Query: How does Nate Silver include ratfucking in his statistical models? The tempting snide quip is “think like a horny rat”, but that doesn’t really translate well at all into building any statistically useful model of how many human ratfuckers will turn out in the GOP primary to skew the numbers.
@Frank: It’s true that Canadians don’t want to trade their health system for the US’s, but it’s equally true that we do have problems like long wait times and overcrowding. Health care is an issue in every election and since living in Canada, I’ve come to the conclusion that there is no perfect health care system. Health care is just too expensive and too complicated to provide the perfect system at anything resembling a reasonable cost.
@samara morgan: Evangelical voters will probably be about 40% of the Michigan GOP electorate, which is how things looked in 2008 and also what the current polls suggest. Here are the numbers from the 2008 primary, which Romney won by 9 points:
Evangelicals: Romney 34%, Huckabee 29%, McCain 23%
Non-evangelicals: Romney 39%, McCain 34%, Huckabee 8%
There’s little doubt that Santorum will do very well among evangelicals. But these numbers don’t provide much evidence that Romney’s religion is viewed as a disqualifier. In 2008, he did almost as well among evangelicals as he did with everyone else.
That’s an awful lot of votes to lock up, and I don’t think Santorum will overcome that headstart even with the benefit of a strong finish. Makes sense to me. Santorum surged too late to be able to come strongly from behind.
I wonder whether some of these people believe that Obama and the Democrats are just shoveling money to “unworthy people,” and if only a good pro business Republican could be elected, not only would there be more money for programs for Real Americans(tm), but the Republicans would not only bring jobs, but insurance that only cost pennies a month.
@Frank: Cold dead hands, baby. Cold dead hands.
Oh, wait: make that warm, live, fully functional hands.
Jesus, I’ve had to manually re-schedule three preventative care appointments from early March to May because I don’t have time to take away from work. (That is, I could have had any of these appointments within 1-2 weeks of calling in.) I waited about 5 weeks for elective day surgery last year, but could have had it in about 3 weeks if I had wanted to go that early.
Yes, there are waits for some services in some geographical areas. We’re short of family doctors in some areas, so people have to use walk-in clinics. We have work to do (raising a little more in taxes wouldn’t hurt). But the vision that Canadians everywhere must wait and wait and wait for services is absolutely laughable.
@samara morgan: red states ain’t gonna be diggin’ it – also, i think people who identify themselves as Christians, but are by no means Christianists or even attend church regularly, are going to be very leery about Mormonism once they scratch the surface. it’s not just evangelicals. and that stuff is going to come out – the secrecy of what goes on in the church is not going to help (what are you trying to hide?). independents and swing voters are skittish and easily spooked. the few remaining, relatively “sane” republicans (along with a big chunk of the ‘vangies) will just stay home.
The system in The Netherlands is the one I wish we had here.
The “tightly regulated” part is the key.
either way frothy mix could walk away with more of the delegates or at least tie with mittens, not that that matters as much. everybody seems to be saying that this is the waterloo of the whole primary. yeah, right.
only 2 of the 28 delegates in MI go to the statewide winner. the rest are apportioned in pairs to the winner of each of the 14 congressional districts. many of em are tossups right now and santorum is bubbling up.
i’m going to go the other way and say “really? even if we say ‘please’?”
I found this article in the New Republic by an actual reporter type informative about the early political views, or not, of the young,college aged Santorum. Was he an idealogue or was he a political tactician? The article posits that he was more of the latter at that stage of his life.
@General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero): I have been preaching this to the Republicans in my family. They say that they are socially libertarian smaller government types who celebrate Jack Kemp and GHW Bush (sometimes).
They tend to be agnostic on abortion and have no issue with gay marriage. They just want their taxes and regulations as low as possible, if not lower.
I keep challenging them that their recent voting for the GOP, as well as their lack of pressure on elites to moderate and step away from social mandates, supports a direction that in the long term is self-defeating. I urge them to support anyone who can provide a GOP Sister Souljah moment.
Seems to be more work than they want to do.
@Violet: Both Japan and Switzerland are similar. Fun fact: AFLAC is the number two seller of health insurance in Japan.
@Frank: “Whether true or not, I have yet to meet a single Canadian who wants to abandon their health care system and take ours instead.”
This. Likewise for France, England, Germany, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, Costa Rica, Uruguay….
So I guess you have not met any very rich Canadians, who
can pick and choose between theirs and ours.
@catclub: The thing is, if money is no object, one can buy fantastic medical care here.
But, there are societies that give better over-all care to their entire population than we do.
because there was no WEC alternative. Huckabee had dropped out and McCain was not a WEC like Bush.
i predicted Colorado, non?
Nate Silver said Romney had that “advantage”.
The more citizens know about mormonism, the less appealing Romney is.
America will have a jewish or muslim president before a mormon is elected.
@Violet: This is basically what ObamaCare sets us up to do, and Sebelius has been pretty good at the regulatin’ so far
Long lines / waiting are a consequence of trying to maximize utilization, and you’re right, the elimination of them increases costs. 95% utilization is what the accountants want, whereas a lower number – say 70% – would bring wait times to a more comfortable level. BTW, these numbers are actually real numbers, but not for health care; they correspond to utilization levels for supercomputer centers run by different US government agencies (I’ll let you guess which agency is allowed to have 70% utilization rates).
The difficulty with high utilization rates was best summarized by a colleague of mine many years ago: would you want to use a bathroom that had 95% utilization rates ? Never mind the effect of waiting on you, just consider what this does to the frequency of maintenance (i.e. cleaning the bathroom).
27% – 54 PROOF. Awww yeah that’s the stuff right there.
@samara morgan: The 2008 Michigan primary took place on January 15. Huckabee didn’t drop out until March 4. Your theory is failing to survive its first contact with the facts.
@Nicole: i can’t believe i would EVER say this, but i almost feel sorry for them, too – because i realize they really are just petrified and the only thing i can figure is they have never gotten over the 60’s.
@Steve: Huck was NO LONGER A SERIOUS CONTENDER for anyone but WECs by January. That is what i meant. Some things have changed since 2008 besides the primary schedule.
In a sense, Romney has already lost in Michigan. Part of the difference between 2008 and 2012 is there has been more mormon information this campaign. Also, the concentration of WECs in the GOP has risen from 40% in 2008 to +50% in 2012.
my theory is sound.
and Romney is going to lose Michigan.
It’s more like medical tourism, actually — using our system allows them to jump the line. Doesn’t it worry you that rich Canadians are using the US system the way rich people in the US use India’s system? We are their third world country.
@samara morgan: The percentage of evangelical voters in this primary will be 40-45%, no higher. Your argument that as a group they consider Romney unacceptable because of his religion is disproven by the 2008 results and it will be disproven again. Of course that group will favor Santorum, just like every group that cares more about social issues will favor Santorum, but Romney’s numbers with evangelicals will be fairly close to his numbers with non-evangelicals, just like in 2008. This is not Iraq with Sunnis and Shiites.
Sure. I have friends in the UK who say the same thing. Wait times and overcrowding. Regardless, not a single one wants to give up their system for what we have here in the US. Wait times is better than the risk of going bankrupt just for the sake of health care.
A drink that is 27% alcohol is actually 54 proof.
Maybe that’s why the wingnuts think they’re in the majority!
The amount of fail in this sentence should get you kicked back to the farm team.
Doesn’t matter. This is about the Unified Dominionists v. Roger Williams.
The Mormon Church is as Dominonists as the Catholic Church and the Bachmanites.
“What’s left of the Republican party will brook no restriction to their god-bothering, and they want their ignorance celebrated“.
Well put. Which is why the democratic party finally exhausted my considerable patience with it. Democrats consistently engage those irrational people on those irrational terms; sell their rank and file down the river, time and time again; and then duck-and-cover. It’s a party trapped in a right wing rip-tide.
@Steve: i got 50% from the Great Nate Silver. Where does your figure come from?
just look at Colorado.
the times they are a changin’.
the Lesson of Sarah Palin taught the base they dont have to settle for the conservative machine candidate anymore.
like they were in Colorado?
c’mon dude… put cher money where your mouth is….cross my palm with Siiiiiiiiiiiiiilvah.
Place a bet.
im saying Santorum wins Michigan.
well, it mattered in Colorado and i think its gunna matter in Michigan tonite.
Doesn’t matter in the General. Which ever Dominionist gets the nom will get the support of the rest of them against the black non-Dominionist UCC Christian.
Tonight I call for Ricky, though. Rush came out hard for him today. Should determine enough last-minute decisions.
@wrb: it will matter.
because of enthusiasm, and because Romney cant get the 65% of the white vote he needs to beat Obama without ALL the WECs voting for him, because all the WECs there are are now in the GOP.
And one reason he cant get that 65% is that he is a mormon.
I voted for Rick in Lodi Township, Michigan, at 8:30 this morning. So did my wife and the couple in line directly behind us. Big smiles on our faces. Place was otherwise empty.