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Everyone stay calm! This is not happening!

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I’ve been stone drunk for the last two days celebrating the fact that one of my voodoo dolls finally seems to have worked. I’ve been sticking pins in that fucking thing for months and had all but given up hope. Megan McArdle had better watch her back.

Now, I’m choosing to blame the fact that I’ve consumed Rush Limbaugh’s body weight in vodka in the last week, but I have a disturbing feeling that Erick Assupwardsson has written a column [WARNING: Redstate link] that is not a complete steaming pile of raven poo. I didn’t guffaw or want to claw out my eyes at all when I read it, and I even found myself nodding in agreement several times.

It must be the drink. The alternative is that Ragnarök is upon us, and I’m not nearly drunk enough to cope with that.

The reality is I think conservative activists are starting to come to terms with Mitt Romney. His national and state polling is starting to trend up.

More and more I hear conservative activists tell me that while they are not sold on Romney and he has not closed the deal, Gingrich and Santorum have not closed the deal either. The great volume of undecided voters who still decide to participate typically will go with the frontrunner and right now that is Mitt Romney.

Santorum and Gingrich have the opportunity to change the reality in the next week, but it is their last major opportunity. Right now, it all comes down to Ohio — a must win state for the three.

Today, in a pre-Super Tuesday horserace, let’s explore where we are headed.

Newt Gingrich will win Georgia. It is not a question of if, but by how much. Mitt Romney will come in third. But Georgia is shaping up to be Gingrich’s only win on Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is probably going to take Tennessee and Oklahoma, though Gingrich will probably come in second in Oklahoma.

Those would be bad headlines for Mitt Romney, except he just might take Vermont, Massachusetts, and will take Virginia. That Ron Paul has not tried to consolidate anti-Romney voters in Virginia suggests to me he is now more spoiler than candidate. The Paul strategy has not turned out as planned and he will not be the nominee.

Santorum needs Ohio. Denying Romney Ohio would be a psychological boost for Santorum’s candidacy and help Santorum against Gingrich headed into the week after Super Tuesday when Mississippi and Alabama are up for grabs — states Romney probably will not win.

And yes, the word “probably” is intentional in all these scenarios because the race remains that fluid.

The Romney campaign has discovered if it concentrates its resources in particular states and drives up their spending ratio to 5 to 1, they will win. It is a strategy that will not work in the general election, but is working effectively for him now, though driving up his negatives.

Santorum and Gingrich will have a hard time matching Romney in Ohio, though Santorum continues to resonate with blue collar workers. His message, however, needs to change. He spent several weeks talking about social issues and not talking about jobs, which is the key topic. Following jobs and the economy, government spending is a top concern of voters.

Santorum has pivoted to talking about that topic, which suggests he gets why he underperformed in Michigan.

The Romney campaign, however, is still in the driver’s seat. Both with money and rising national polling, Santorum and Gingrich both in the race are starting to keep consolidation from happening against Mitt Romney and, consequently, voters are starting to get desperate and are starting to consolidate for Romney.

Republican leaders should be worried, though, that in a Republican primary the front runner is still having this much difficulty in Republican states winning Republican voters. Mitt Romney may be the first Republican nominee in a very long time to win the nomination while losing the South. That signals trouble for him in the general election as he spends time rallying the base to him when he needs to rally independents who are right now turning on him.

The Romney campaign may gamble that the base will vote for him in November. They’re probably right. But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That’s more difficult to answer.

Mind you, I’m sure that it’s only a temporary aberration and that it’s only a matter of time before Erick reverts back to cheerleading for Bobby Fucking Jindal to step in as a compromise candidate at a brokered convention.

As an aside, if you haven’t listened to the 2010 interview where Michael D. Higgins (now President of Ireland) dumps a truckload of righteous indignation on the spluttering head of radio host Michael Graham (from AnnetteK at the Boehner Coloured Satan, via the lovely Mr Pierce), please do so now.

Listen until the end. You may need to have a cigarette, a nap and a shower afterwards.

Reader Interactions

51Comments

  2. 2.

    Soonergrunt

    Good work with the pin sticking. Now you have twice as many to use on the bigger doll. And I’m talking abdominally bigger, not any other ‘endowment.’

  3. 3.

    Sarah Proud and Tall

    @different-church-lady:

    I default to Absolut 100. I do like their Pear vodka as well, and I’ve been making my own vanilla vodka by putting a vanilla bean into a litre bottle and sticking it into a cupboard for six months.

    As for gin, I only drink Bombay or Hendricks, but I am prepared to be wooed to other brands.

    Hell, I’ll try anything if someone tells me it’s good.

  9. 9.

    Steeplejack

    @different-church-lady:

    I brought a bottle skull of this back from Atlanta. (Private liquor stores more adventurous than the state-run shops here in Virginia.) Have no idea how it tastes, but the delivery system is awesome. I’m thinking I should get another dozen to be ready for the Mayan apocalypse.

    Still kicking myself that I didn’t also get the similarly packaged tequila I saw.

    Why, yes, since you ask, my mind has been turned to mush by American consumerism.

  12. 12.

    Anne Laurie

    Darn you, Sarah. I was saving that excellent Higgins rant for St. Patricks Day, and here you go using it on a Friday evening! Guess it’ll be the Dropkick Murphys again, on the day, begorrah.

  14. 14.

    MikeJ

    @Gin & Tonic: Meh. Bombay is fine if you delicate floral notes. If you want juniper to hit you over the head, rummage around in your pockets and give you a quick feel before taking your car keys, Beefeater is what you want.

    You might also like to try Plymouth and compare it to the London gins you’ve already had. And while educating yourself, try some genièvre too.

  15. 15.

    asiangrrlMN

    Hello, Ms. Sarah! Glad to see you fit and feisty as usual. That rant by President Higgins of Ireland was a thing of beauty. I love how he wouldn’t let “Mike” (Graham) get a word in edgewise. That really is what you have to do with wankers like Graham.

  20. 20.

    YellowJournalism

    Steeplejack! My husband got a bottle of that for Christmas. Came with an oddly adorable set of matching skull shot glasses.

  23. 23.

    inkadu

    What’s Ron Paul doing (or not doing) in Virginia? Why does it indicate he’s a spoiler?

    But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That’s more difficult to answer.

    And does any of that stuff matter in the new funding environment? Romney is going to get the plutocratic and corporate money (out of his ears) and will have his own 24-hour news network.

    I’ve gone door-to-door, by the way. I think I only pissed people off about my candidate.

  25. 25.

    trollhattan

    @MikeJ:

    Can I get any love around here for Boodles? That’s my go-to, with Bombay Saphire a decent fallback.

    If it helps establish my quals, I planted a lime tree just for G&T season (the malaria is just horrrrrrrible ’round here). Sad bit is they aren’t ready until August, when G&T season is half over.

  27. 27.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    @Steeplejack: I heard an interview (which was more about his vineyard in Ontario’s Niagara region), but he seemed pretty excited and authentic about it.

    To think, that before he became an actor, he was considering becoming a priest.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    @Steeplejack:

    True, true. One shakes one’s fist at tree and goes to store.

    We have more limes than we know what to do with in December, but by then it’s zinfandel season.

    Think of the children!

  29. 29.

    Steeplejack

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    No offense meant to him. I just think the nature of vodka and its position on the food chain drink chain are such that fancifying it is like gilding a drawing of a lily.

  31. 31.

    General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)

    Since this thread has already breached Red State barrier for a link, here is another.

    BREAKING: Mitt Romney Urged Obama to Embrace the Individual Mandate

    In July 2009, Mitt Romney wrote an op-ed in USA Today urging Barack Obama to usean individual mandate at the national level to control healthcare costs.

    WoW! Romney has claimed his position is that it’s okay for individual states to do mandates, if they want, but not okay for a national health care reform.

  34. 34.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    @Sarah Proud and Tall:

    Similar to your vanilla bean vodka, the wife used to make a plum “wine”. Get a large bottle, about 4 liters(she’d use well washed kim chi bottles), fill it with plums, add a reasonalbly good vodka to fill, add some sugar. Store 6 months in a dark place. Though I now abstain, it was quite yummy.

    Also while in Denver on business I tried garlic vodka, quite good.

  36. 36.

    catclub

    Sanity breaking out at redstate stuns BJ commenters into talking about vodka.

    Just keep walking.

  37. 37.

    Steeplejack

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    And, hell, I bought it. Actions, words, speaking louder than.

    ETA: But the skull bottle is so cool. And it’s really heavy. If you hold it you’ll want one.

  39. 39.

    Anne Laurie

    @Sarah Proud and Tall: As Mr. Lafferty would say, my comment was “tongue so firmly in cheek as to protrude from the vulgar bodily orifice”. You’re right, I’ll probably front-page the clip anyways :)

  43. 43.

    Steeplejack

    @trollhattan:

    Presumably in the same way that if Bill Gates, you and I were drinking in a bar we could say, “You know, on average, we’re all millionaires here.”

    But, as I said, one does what one can. Kudos to you, sir.

  44. 44.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Comrade Mary:

    Blogger Ace Of Spades

    …is trying way too hard. Yawn. Mr Playdoh and Bacon already revealed his preferences a long time ago.

  45. 45.

    Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason

    @Sarah Proud and Tall:

    Hell, I’ll try anything if someone tells me it’s good.

    Bourbon: Lots of good expensive stuff, but Evan Williams is 3/4 as good for 1/2 the price.

    ETA: BSoS +6
    It’s been a long week of 10-12 hour days and I’m DONE

  48. 48.

    Ronzoni Rigatoni

    @trollhattan: Ooodles of Boodles, Travis McGee’s favorite after Plymouth shut down (momentarily). These days I am reduced to (gasp!) Gilbey’s. Hard times, man. Hard Times.

  49. 49.

    squirrelhugger

    McArdle better watch her back? You aren’t very creative with voodoo dolls.

  51. 51.

    kindness

    Just a suggestion…do you have one of those dolls for Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts? We’re gonna need an extra liberal vote or two coming up.

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