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You are here: Home / Everyone stay calm! This is not happening!

Everyone stay calm! This is not happening!

by Sarah, Proud and Tall|  March 2, 201210:11 pm| 51 Comments

This post is in: Decline and Fall, Good News For Conservatives, hoocoodanode

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I’ve been stone drunk for the last two days celebrating the fact that one of my voodoo dolls finally seems to have worked. I’ve been sticking pins in that fucking thing for months and had all but given up hope. Megan McArdle had better watch her back.

Now, I’m choosing to blame the fact that I’ve consumed Rush Limbaugh’s body weight in vodka in the last week, but I have a disturbing feeling that Erick Assupwardsson has written a column [WARNING: Redstate link] that is not a complete steaming pile of raven poo. I didn’t guffaw or want to claw out my eyes at all when I read it, and I even found myself nodding in agreement several times.

It must be the drink. The alternative is that Ragnarök is upon us, and I’m not nearly drunk enough to cope with that.

The reality is I think conservative activists are starting to come to terms with Mitt Romney. His national and state polling is starting to trend up.

More and more I hear conservative activists tell me that while they are not sold on Romney and he has not closed the deal, Gingrich and Santorum have not closed the deal either. The great volume of undecided voters who still decide to participate typically will go with the frontrunner and right now that is Mitt Romney.

Santorum and Gingrich have the opportunity to change the reality in the next week, but it is their last major opportunity. Right now, it all comes down to Ohio — a must win state for the three.

Today, in a pre-Super Tuesday horserace, let’s explore where we are headed.

Newt Gingrich will win Georgia. It is not a question of if, but by how much. Mitt Romney will come in third. But Georgia is shaping up to be Gingrich’s only win on Super Tuesday. Rick Santorum is probably going to take Tennessee and Oklahoma, though Gingrich will probably come in second in Oklahoma.

Those would be bad headlines for Mitt Romney, except he just might take Vermont, Massachusetts, and will take Virginia. That Ron Paul has not tried to consolidate anti-Romney voters in Virginia suggests to me he is now more spoiler than candidate. The Paul strategy has not turned out as planned and he will not be the nominee.

Santorum needs Ohio. Denying Romney Ohio would be a psychological boost for Santorum’s candidacy and help Santorum against Gingrich headed into the week after Super Tuesday when Mississippi and Alabama are up for grabs — states Romney probably will not win.

And yes, the word “probably” is intentional in all these scenarios because the race remains that fluid.

The Romney campaign has discovered if it concentrates its resources in particular states and drives up their spending ratio to 5 to 1, they will win. It is a strategy that will not work in the general election, but is working effectively for him now, though driving up his negatives.

Santorum and Gingrich will have a hard time matching Romney in Ohio, though Santorum continues to resonate with blue collar workers. His message, however, needs to change. He spent several weeks talking about social issues and not talking about jobs, which is the key topic. Following jobs and the economy, government spending is a top concern of voters.

Santorum has pivoted to talking about that topic, which suggests he gets why he underperformed in Michigan.

The Romney campaign, however, is still in the driver’s seat. Both with money and rising national polling, Santorum and Gingrich both in the race are starting to keep consolidation from happening against Mitt Romney and, consequently, voters are starting to get desperate and are starting to consolidate for Romney.

Republican leaders should be worried, though, that in a Republican primary the front runner is still having this much difficulty in Republican states winning Republican voters. Mitt Romney may be the first Republican nominee in a very long time to win the nomination while losing the South. That signals trouble for him in the general election as he spends time rallying the base to him when he needs to rally independents who are right now turning on him.

The Romney campaign may gamble that the base will vote for him in November. They’re probably right. But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That’s more difficult to answer.

Mind you, I’m sure that it’s only a temporary aberration and that it’s only a matter of time before Erick reverts back to cheerleading for Bobby Fucking Jindal to step in as a compromise candidate at a brokered convention.

As an aside, if you haven’t listened to the 2010 interview where Michael D. Higgins (now President of Ireland) dumps a truckload of righteous indignation on the spluttering head of radio host Michael Graham (from AnnetteK at the Boehner Coloured Satan, via the lovely Mr Pierce), please do so now.

Listen until the end. You may need to have a cigarette, a nap and a shower afterwards.

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Reader Interactions

51Comments

  1. 1.

    different-church-lady

    March 2, 2012 at 10:18 pm

    Curious to know what your vodka of choice is.

  2. 2.

    Soonergrunt

    March 2, 2012 at 10:23 pm

    Good work with the pin sticking. Now you have twice as many to use on the bigger doll. And I’m talking abdominally bigger, not any other ‘endowment.’

  3. 3.

    Sarah Proud and Tall

    March 2, 2012 at 10:28 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    I default to Absolut 100. I do like their Pear vodka as well, and I’ve been making my own vanilla vodka by putting a vanilla bean into a litre bottle and sticking it into a cupboard for six months.

    As for gin, I only drink Bombay or Hendricks, but I am prepared to be wooed to other brands.

    Hell, I’ll try anything if someone tells me it’s good.

  4. 4.

    amk

    March 2, 2012 at 10:33 pm

    @Sarah Proud and Tall:

    Tanqueray

    As for gin, I only drink Bombay or Hendricks, but I am prepared to be wooed to other brands.

  5. 5.

    Jenn

    March 2, 2012 at 10:34 pm

    Awesome. I saw reference to this before, but didn’t listen until now. Thanks!

  6. 6.

    Sarah Proud and Tall

    March 2, 2012 at 10:37 pm

    @amk:

    I’m not a fan. Bloody Betty Bowes-Lyon used to drink it with Dubonnet, and you couldn’t get the smell of it out of your nostrils for weeks after visiting the palace.

  7. 7.

    the ghost of cleek

    March 2, 2012 at 10:38 pm

    Hendricks

    correct

  8. 8.

    leinie

    March 2, 2012 at 10:39 pm

    @amk I am. :). Although I’m drinking rum at the moment. +2

  9. 9.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 10:40 pm

    @different-church-lady:

    I brought a bottle skull of this back from Atlanta. (Private liquor stores more adventurous than the state-run shops here in Virginia.) Have no idea how it tastes, but the delivery system is awesome. I’m thinking I should get another dozen to be ready for the Mayan apocalypse.

    Still kicking myself that I didn’t also get the similarly packaged tequila I saw.

    Why, yes, since you ask, my mind has been turned to mush by American consumerism.

  10. 10.

    Cassidy

    March 2, 2012 at 10:41 pm

    Keglevich Strawberry Vodka. NOt sure if it is as amazing as I remember, but we drank a lot of it in Croatia.

  11. 11.

    Gin & Tonic

    March 2, 2012 at 10:45 pm

    @Sarah Proud and Tall: Bombay is all you need.

  12. 12.

    Anne Laurie

    March 2, 2012 at 10:51 pm

    Darn you, Sarah. I was saving that excellent Higgins rant for St. Patricks Day, and here you go using it on a Friday evening! Guess it’ll be the Dropkick Murphys again, on the day, begorrah.

  13. 13.

    Phoebe

    March 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm

    I am so glad I clicked on that link. I am weak and giddy. It was bee yoo tee ful!

  14. 14.

    MikeJ

    March 2, 2012 at 10:52 pm

    @Gin & Tonic: Meh. Bombay is fine if you delicate floral notes. If you want juniper to hit you over the head, rummage around in your pockets and give you a quick feel before taking your car keys, Beefeater is what you want.

    You might also like to try Plymouth and compare it to the London gins you’ve already had. And while educating yourself, try some genièvre too.

  15. 15.

    asiangrrlMN

    March 2, 2012 at 10:56 pm

    Hello, Ms. Sarah! Glad to see you fit and feisty as usual. That rant by President Higgins of Ireland was a thing of beauty. I love how he wouldn’t let “Mike” (Graham) get a word in edgewise. That really is what you have to do with wankers like Graham.

  16. 16.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 10:59 pm

    @asiangrrlMN:

    Hey, hon. It’s been a while.

  17. 17.

    NobodySpecial

    March 2, 2012 at 11:11 pm

    @Steeplejack: I cannot speak from personal experience, but I do know people who have drank it, and they report favorably.

  18. 18.

    Comrade Mary

    March 2, 2012 at 11:13 pm

    Meanwhile, the world shifts itself back into balance with a gentle fart as Blogger Ace Of Spades Calls Sandra Fluke “A Shiftless Rent-A-Cooch From East Whoreville”.

    Link goes to Media Matters.

  19. 19.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:17 pm

    @NobodySpecial:

    C’mon, it’s vodka. How bad can it be? Or how much different from any other vodka? And I say that as a resolute Ketel One man.

  20. 20.

    YellowJournalism

    March 2, 2012 at 11:27 pm

    Steeplejack! My husband got a bottle of that for Christmas. Came with an oddly adorable set of matching skull shot glasses.

  21. 21.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    March 2, 2012 at 11:29 pm

    @Steeplejack: It’s a project that Dan Aykroyd started. Italian-made glass with glacial water from Newfoundland.

    http://www.crystalheadvodka.com/

    His vineyard makes some pretty decent vintage too.

  22. 22.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:30 pm

    @YellowJournalism:

    [. . .] oddly adorable set of matching skull shot glasses.

    Damn! You’re killing me here.

  23. 23.

    inkadu

    March 2, 2012 at 11:31 pm

    What’s Ron Paul doing (or not doing) in Virginia? Why does it indicate he’s a spoiler?

    But will they go door to door, talk positively about him, defend him, and give him money? That’s more difficult to answer.

    And does any of that stuff matter in the new funding environment? Romney is going to get the plutocratic and corporate money (out of his ears) and will have his own 24-hour news network.

    I’ve gone door-to-door, by the way. I think I only pissed people off about my candidate.

  24. 24.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    I knew Aykroyd was involved, didn’t know how deep the level of pretentious douchery (or possibly satiric marketing).

  25. 25.

    trollhattan

    March 2, 2012 at 11:33 pm

    @MikeJ:

    Can I get any love around here for Boodles? That’s my go-to, with Bombay Saphire a decent fallback.

    If it helps establish my quals, I planted a lime tree just for G&T season (the malaria is just horrrrrrrible ’round here). Sad bit is they aren’t ready until August, when G&T season is half over.

  26. 26.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:38 pm

    @trollhattan:

    Sad bit is they aren’t ready until August, when G&T season is half over.

    One does what one can.

  27. 27.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    March 2, 2012 at 11:43 pm

    @Steeplejack: I heard an interview (which was more about his vineyard in Ontario’s Niagara region), but he seemed pretty excited and authentic about it.

    To think, that before he became an actor, he was considering becoming a priest.

  28. 28.

    trollhattan

    March 2, 2012 at 11:43 pm

    @Steeplejack:

    True, true. One shakes one’s fist at tree and goes to store.

    We have more limes than we know what to do with in December, but by then it’s zinfandel season.

    Think of the children!

  29. 29.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:47 pm

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    No offense meant to him. I just think the nature of vodka and its position on the food chain drink chain are such that fancifying it is like gilding a drawing of a lily.

  30. 30.

    Steeplejack

    March 2, 2012 at 11:49 pm

    @trollhattan:

    Think of the children!

    At least they won’t be malarial children. So there’s that. Carry on your good work.

  31. 31.

    General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)

    March 2, 2012 at 11:50 pm

    Since this thread has already breached Red State barrier for a link, here is another.

    BREAKING: Mitt Romney Urged Obama to Embrace the Individual Mandate

    In July 2009, Mitt Romney wrote an op-ed in USA Today urging Barack Obama to usean individual mandate at the national level to control healthcare costs.

    WoW! Romney has claimed his position is that it’s okay for individual states to do mandates, if they want, but not okay for a national health care reform.

  32. 32.

    Wag

    March 2, 2012 at 11:52 pm

    Hendricks G+T with clementine instead of lime. Smooth and sweet.

  33. 33.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    March 3, 2012 at 12:05 am

    @Steeplejack: None taken :)

  34. 34.

    BillinGlendaleCA

    March 3, 2012 at 12:07 am

    @Sarah Proud and Tall:

    Similar to your vanilla bean vodka, the wife used to make a plum “wine”. Get a large bottle, about 4 liters(she’d use well washed kim chi bottles), fill it with plums, add a reasonalbly good vodka to fill, add some sugar. Store 6 months in a dark place. Though I now abstain, it was quite yummy.

    Also while in Denver on business I tried garlic vodka, quite good.

  35. 35.

    Sarah Proud and Tall

    March 3, 2012 at 12:08 am

    @Anne Laurie:

    Sorry about that. I suspect you’d be safe posting it again – it’s worth it, and Cole’s puppy thread distracted everyone’s attention anyway.

  36. 36.

    catclub

    March 3, 2012 at 12:09 am

    Sanity breaking out at redstate stuns BJ commenters into talking about vodka.

    Just keep walking.

  37. 37.

    Steeplejack

    March 3, 2012 at 12:18 am

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    And, hell, I bought it. Actions, words, speaking louder than.

    ETA: But the skull bottle is so cool. And it’s really heavy. If you hold it you’ll want one.

  38. 38.

    kathy

    March 3, 2012 at 12:19 am

    Aviation gin

  39. 39.

    Anne Laurie

    March 3, 2012 at 12:22 am

    @Sarah Proud and Tall: As Mr. Lafferty would say, my comment was “tongue so firmly in cheek as to protrude from the vulgar bodily orifice”. You’re right, I’ll probably front-page the clip anyways :)

  40. 40.

    Thor Heyerdahl

    March 3, 2012 at 12:23 am

    @Steeplejack: I almost picked one up at the Niagara Falls duty free a couple years ago, but didn’t.

  41. 41.

    trollhattan

    March 3, 2012 at 12:23 am

    @Steeplejack:

    Bill Gates and I are going to kick malaria’s ass!

  42. 42.

    Steeplejack

    March 3, 2012 at 12:24 am

    @Thor Heyerdahl:

    Dude! How could you resist? Seriously.

  43. 43.

    Steeplejack

    March 3, 2012 at 12:26 am

    @trollhattan:

    Presumably in the same way that if Bill Gates, you and I were drinking in a bar we could say, “You know, on average, we’re all millionaires here.”

    But, as I said, one does what one can. Kudos to you, sir.

  44. 44.

    pseudonymous in nc

    March 3, 2012 at 1:51 am

    @Comrade Mary:

    Blogger Ace Of Spades

    …is trying way too hard. Yawn. Mr Playdoh and Bacon already revealed his preferences a long time ago.

  45. 45.

    Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason

    March 3, 2012 at 2:11 am

    @Sarah Proud and Tall:

    Hell, I’ll try anything if someone tells me it’s good.

    Bourbon: Lots of good expensive stuff, but Evan Williams is 3/4 as good for 1/2 the price.

    ETA: BSoS +6
    It’s been a long week of 10-12 hour days and I’m DONE

  46. 46.

    Calouste

    March 3, 2012 at 2:40 am

    @trollhattan:

    Yes, you can get some love here for Boodles. No love here for Stoli?

  47. 47.

    samara morgan

    March 3, 2012 at 4:16 am

    Beluga.

  48. 48.

    Ronzoni Rigatoni

    March 3, 2012 at 6:21 am

    @trollhattan: Ooodles of Boodles, Travis McGee’s favorite after Plymouth shut down (momentarily). These days I am reduced to (gasp!) Gilbey’s. Hard times, man. Hard Times.

  49. 49.

    squirrelhugger

    March 3, 2012 at 7:21 am

    McArdle better watch her back? You aren’t very creative with voodoo dolls.

  50. 50.

    ExpatDanBKK

    March 3, 2012 at 7:42 am

    @BillinGlendaleCA: Garlic vodka, I dunno.

    But I do know that bacon vodka is simply wrong. And I had forever thought that bacon made everything better. Well, not vodka it seems LOL!

    http://bakonvodka.com

  51. 51.

    kindness

    March 3, 2012 at 12:48 pm

    Just a suggestion…do you have one of those dolls for Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts? We’re gonna need an extra liberal vote or two coming up.

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