Looks like we blew the opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat in Maine.
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Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.
Second rate reporter says what?
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Battle won, war still ongoing.
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The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.
The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.
Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?
This fight is for everything.
So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.
Let’s not be the monsters we hate.
Kilkee
I wouldn’t say we blew it. Chellie could not have beaten Angus King. I’m not sure anyone could. He won’t be the worst, and a big improvement on the supposedly moderate Snowe.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
I’m not sure how “we” blew it. If King’s as independent as everybody says, it’s not as if the state party apparatus or the DSCC apparatus had a lot of leverage on him.
Now, we’re getting screwed, yes. But for once, this doesn’t appear to be a self-inflicted wound.
Kilkee
Digby predicts King will be a “patsy” for the right. Digby does not know Anus King.
Corner Store Operator
I love digby but I think the analysis there is lacking in understanding of Maine and Angus.
I think Chellie’s right (look at LePage 2010). Angus is incredibly popular and a friend of Pingree’s. Also Angus (who supported Kerry and Obama) will be much better than Olympia (and if Democrats basically support him he will owe us more than if we run someone against him).
I’m not saying I don’t think he’ll make dumbass centrist statements in public, but the bottom line is in the senate you have to caucus with someone to get committee assignments and you have to actually vote on legislation which is going to put him on one side or the other. Its hard to be an “independent” when you actually have to take a position and vote.
AA+ Bonds
Maybe Angus King and Erskine Bowles can get together with Paul Ryan on some drunk night and do a little move I like to call “the bridge to 1929”
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Kilkee: Did you mean to leave the “g” out?
Hunter Gathers
Looks like Joe Manchin will have competition for Biggest Pain In The Ass in the Senate Democratic Caucus.
You know what the Senate needs? More old white men.
AA+ Bonds
LOL, people, absolutely the worst fucking thing possible for America would be to cut deficit spending through cash payments as Europe goes into a tailspin
China will fuck us raw as Angus King gears up for Ryan/Bowles 2016
“Independent” in the U.S. usually means one thing, and it’s the same thing as “centrist”: it means “by hook or by crook, this asshole will kill the economy”
AA+ Bonds
I agree that Maine probably has no choice but Angus King; my suggestion would be to start planning how to blackmail him
aimai
The calculation is better Angus King than a straight up republican. What Obama should have done is offer King a position in his next administration so Pingree could run as the real democrat without a popular independent splitting the vote. Maine is understandably gunshy of having a three way fuck up like they did with the governor’s race.
aimai
catclub
@Hunter Gathers: It is horrifying to realize that the smallest ego in the senate might be Al Franken. Certainly the best covered up one, by comparison with all the other guys whoe see a president every morning in the mirror.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Corner Store Operator:
He can join Blanche McCaskill (Scared Shitless-Missouri) in the Dumbass Centrist Statements Caucus.
Assuming she doesn’t lose mightily come November. The only thing saving her are some amazingly crappy Repup candidates and the possibility that the teatards here will stay at home not wanting to vote for the Mormon.
catclub
Posts 3, 6 and 7 need to all be the same color for highlighting purposes. They could not have been randomly submitted.
redshirt
I’ve met and spoken with Angus King. I like Angus King, as do most Mainers.
Should that not be a requirement for the Senate? The state he’s representing likes him?
He’ll caucus with the Democrats. Book it.
Mark S.
As long as he caucuses with the Dems he will be a billion times better than Snowe. Hell, your boy Manchin is a billion times better than Snowe.
Here’s Michael Kinsley concern trolling about Rush::
Also, liberals are hypocrites for being delighted by this, and boycotting products might be illegal in some contexts that are known only to Michael Kinsley.
shortstop
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage: Claire. Blanche was the PITA from one state south.
edmund dantes
As a former resident of Maine, 25 years. I think she made a smart move. It’s either Angus King or risk the repeat of the Lepage problem Maine already has. King’s not great, but he’s a hell of a lot better than anything the current Maine Republican party is sending forth.
4jkb4ia
Sadly, Chellie Pingree didn’t use any logic that John himself didn’t use two years ago–she might have been the best candidate, but preventing McConnell from being majority leader was all-important.
I saw the video that Nate linked, which was only 4 minutes. We didn’t blow it. King is deservedly popular–he is quickly going to get a reputation as a truth-teller that Snowe couldn’t have because she was crushed by party affiliation. He might be the proof that everyone calling for a third party is deluding themselves because said third party will have Democratic positions.
(Did West Virginia do enough to have their name called on Sunday? This is the serious matter.)
AA+ Bonds
Look if you lobster-chuckers can figure out how to keep him from dependably voting to starve old people then I am a-okay with you defending this fence-shitter
And I mean that, you have a real and practical problem on your hands to solve, and I’d appreciate suggestions
catclub
@Mark S.: I suspect the push to crush Rush is completely sincere. I hope it would be effective. I doubt it will be.
Davis X. Machina
King’s a besotted worshiper at the altar of the cult of the Entrepreneur—a real pro-business, low-tax, low-service low-regulation type.
LL Bean’s and International Paper and Bowater and Bath Iron Works and UNUM all luuurved his independenty ways—but Maine can and should be electing people to his left on economics. We’re an old, poor state—even if he’s reliable on social issues, I don’t trust King on the safety net.
eemom
Another politically tone deaf whine-fest by drama queen digby? Quelle surprise.
redshirt
If Pinegree had run, that would have put the seat in definite play for some whack a doodle Repuke. It’s how we got stuck with LePage.
shortstop
@Davis X. Machina: Okay, but since Pingree’s not running, can King win and will he caucus with the Dems? Not that what you said isn’t important, but this other piece of it is, too.
Corner Store Operator
For you Mainers:
Chellie would have been a really strong candidate, but Baldacci, et al will be weak. Are they not running as well? I don’t see how Chellie dropping out helps us if Baldacci is the nominee. We’d have a Mitchell situation on our hands again (except Angus is stronger than Cutler). It seems for this to work we need to run nobody on the Democratic side.
Also, don’t get me wrong, I’m really disappointed that Pingree will not be a senator (this is going to the year of the Democratic women in the senate) and she would have been one of the most progressive senators if elected.
Jess
If you follow the links back, King’s quotes criticizing big deficits that Digby is concerned about were from 2005. Very different scenario than the same critique would be today. As much as I admire Digby, she’d screwed up her analysis this time, I think.
drew42
First of all, digby hand-wrings so much that I can smell the clammy palm sweat through my computer monitor.
Second, is he really going to caucus with the Democrats? If so, then he’s still 1000x better than a Republican. And 1000000x better than Snowe, who helped give the Republicans a “moderate” face while doing absolutely nothing to make them more moderate.
Jeez, a week ago we didn’t even know Snowe was retiring.
eemom
I must say though, I totally LOVE that name. Right up there with the guy who almost beat Bachmann a few years back….Elwyn Tinklenberg.
We need more cool names in Congress.
Donut
As much as I respect Digby, the sky always seems to be falling in her pieces. I get weary of her pessimism – especially so when it is not always warranted, which I think is the case here. I’d much rather have another centrist/right-tilted independent caucusing with the Democratic side, than face a likely Obama presidency with a Majority Leader McYurtle and a Speaker Orange-Glo.
If all we do is pine for the “best” possible outcome, yet throw up our hands in dismay when it doesn’t materialize, then we are short-sighted at best. At worst (hopefully) we will have just another moderate in the Senate who will be not-so-influential as a Freshman.
AA+ Bonds
@Jess:
So what you are saying is that King is not an economy-killing “deficit hawk” now? And do you have quotes to back this up or are we choosing between your pure speculation and something King actually said
middlewest
Keeping teabaggers out of government is a win these days. No emo.
AA+ Bonds
Look, I agree that King is probably the best chance to beat the Republicans
So your mission is now to figure out how to keep King from joining the torpedo-America club
Because if you start scrambling to figure it out later then the next time you see Angus King he will be easing Paul Ryan’s anaconda out during a joint session
eemom
@Jess:
I keep hearing this. The admirability is totally lost on me — can you — or anyone — please elaborate? Thx.
eemom
@Donut:
again.
Culture of Truth
Yes but the good news we get to say “those hapless Dems blew it again!1!”, which is soooo sweeeeet.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Corner Store Operator:
Is there a reason why she can’t run against Collins when the latter comes up for re-election? i.e. better late than never?
AA+ Bonds
I mean everyone posting here basically assumes that we have to put up with their shit and we don’t. have to put up with their shit
And if you’re like oh a centrist is better! then you probably need to figure out how to curb that centrist on the most important policy issue for you and your children and their children and etc. which is whether we are going to murder recovery in the crib
And if you think, my stars, I’m more concerned about social issues, let me tell you – so too will be the people who end up leading the mob when we have sustained high unemployment for another decade
Corner Store Operator
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
No reason other than she lost to her pretty badly in 2002, doesn’t want to lose her House seat and Collins is still a popular figure in Maine and likely unbeatable (depending on who you ask).
We’ll see if all of this is still true in 2014 when Collins is up for re-election. Hopefully she takes the Snowe route as well.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
I’m more concerned with why Scott Brown is leading in MA.
liberal
On Digby’s page, King is quoted as saying:
Yawn. The most striking thing about what GW said in that speech, in today’s context:
Excessive partiality…wonder what foreign state that could possibly be? /snark
Senyordave
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): I agree. If Warren isn’t polling better than Brown at this point, she’s in big trouble.
redshirt
Gnash all you want – King will be a more reliable Democratic vote in the Senate than Manchin.
Corner Store Operator
@AA+ Bonds:
I agree with everything you have been saying. For me the decision comes down to is Angus King beatable in 2012? If the answer is no, you try to back him early and in exchange he owes your side a lot more. If you run against him you better be able to beat him because then he won’t feel any reason to support your position.
I don’t buy into the idea that in a general election running a candidate to someone’s left (or right in a conservative case) helps keep them in line in this political environment. It only engenders hostility.
Its up to the activists and Democratic party folks in Maine to work these issues out with King early on if they are going to back him.
Jay C
OK, so Angus King isn’t likely to be a Bernie Sanders. As long as he isn’t a Joe Lieberman or Joe Manchin, it will still be an improvement over a Republican. Who, this time around, would most likely be a raging Teabagger.
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
CW is than Susan Collins (like Sen. Snowe, before she chucked it in) is a near-permanent fixture in Maine with stratospheric approvals and more-or-less guaranteed lifetime tenure. Rep. Pingree might run, sure: but IIRC, it would be against very long odds.
liberal
@redshirt:
But that’s not the question. The question is always how much worse/better a vote, adjusting for the median ideological position of the states’ voters.
rea
Excessive partiality…wonder what foreign state that could possibly be?
Washington, writing in the 1790s, was cautioning against supporting revolutionary France against Great Britian.
redshirt
@liberal: I’d have love to see Pinegree get the seat. But she would have lost to King, and both might have lost to a Teabagger.
King is WAAAAY better than a Teabagger.
Donut
Eemom:
Opinions are as ubiquitous as assholes, and you’re certainly entitled to yours. I think she is pretty good on analyzing Republicans and gives pretty tight critiques of the media – though frequently she is not so good at analyzing likely outcomes, as she often reaches for the most negative, pessimistic conclusions. In short, to repeat what I said above, she is kind of a Henny Penny when it comes to her expectations.
Is that good enough for you? Have I said enough for you to approve of my already-qualified opinion of Digby?
liberal
@rea:
That’s not what I’m alluding to, any more than King was trying to allude to debts in the 1790s.
4jkb4ia
The Model Thinking class has gotten to the Condorcet paradox, which is apt here. (Very good class, although I know all the math in it several times.)
Why respect/admire Digby?
Digby has been at this a very long time. Digby is eloquent and can be insightful. Digby has a good sense for the left limits of what should be possible. As is often the case, Digby is playing with a different deck than her commenters are. /occasional Digby reader
ETA: Digby gave a platform to dday and thereisnospoon and they were excellent choices both times.
pseudonymous in nc
Digby is once more looking for the black cloud in every silver lining, from the comfort a California district where they weigh the Democratic vote instead of counting it.
Snowe’s decision to walk makes an obvious point: King doesn’t have a place in today’s Senate GOP caucus.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Jay C:
Sigh. Where is the Tea Party when you really need them? Worse than cops with a radar gun, they are.
Culture of Truth
Washington:
“Verily will cometh the day when will be able to summon our slaves with tiny devises, play musik with those also; and our womenfolk will have full equality with mechanical men, and the savages will find a home on the moon, and fly there on metal ships pulled by birds; such wonders will our world have!”
liberal
@redshirt:
I’ve got nothing against that analysis.
Honestly, though, the way politicians often or usually put their own careers ahead of the public good, this business puts Pingree in a very good light.
beltane
Angus King will be similar to former VT Senator Jim Jeffords. There are far worse things than this. No, he is not Bernie Sanders, but then again, Maine is not Vermont. In political terms, Maine is between VT and NH on the spectrum. I’m not sure why Digby is in grieving mode over this.
NCSteve
I don’t give a damn if he has phone sex with Friedman as long as he votes Democratic on the goddam organizing resolution. If he’s vote number 60 in a 60 seat majority, his centrism–which sounds more like a matter of feeding the seemingly endless appetite of Mainers for centrist wanker rhetoric than a matter of reality–might become an irritant. But otherwise, when we’re struggling just to get to 50, it’s impossible for me to see having someone from Maine vote for Harry Reid for majority leader in 2013 as anything other than a win.
supa
I’m glad you think ‘we’ (yea, like you have any influence on anything) blew it. Seeing as how you are so clueless and WRONG about everything that means we have a good chance.
I suppose now you are going to tell me Warren is going to beat Brown and Kucinich was a great loss. Fool!
liberal
@Culture of Truth:
If you look at the bit I quoted above about foreign policy, you can see there really is prescient material in the speech.
redshirt
@liberal: Agreed. I’m kind of amazed Pinegree backed out. But by doing, she’s almost assuring Maine will not have a Teabagger in the Senate, and that’s what I care about most.
King and Pinegree are friends, so I assume they discussed this beforehand.
NR
King looks a lot more like Lieberman than he does like Sanders. Which, of course, means that the Democratic leadership will love to have him. Another excuse not to pass progressive legislation.
Dave
I would walk back the “woe is us talk”, John. King is well liked up here and he is no Republican. He will caucus with the Democrats. He’s not a Lieberman or a Manchin. He’s moderate to liberal, not moderate to conservative. He was an assistant for Senator Hathaway (D – ME) back in the 70s. And he’s big on green energy.
He’s not a Dem. But he is WAY better than Snowe and the pseudo-Dems like Manchin.
liberal
@NCSteve:
That’s right. We could replace every liberal democrat in the Senate with a centrist independent. As long as they’d all be willing to caucus with the democratic party, what difference could it possibly make?
dww44
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): LOL!
MomSense
I think King will caucus with the Dems but I don’t want him to talk about it at all before November.
He is far to the left of Manchin. Whoever it was who quoted his statement on baby boomers apparently didn’t notice that he did not mention cuts to Medicare or Social Security. Having spoken with him about many issues, I can tell you that he was not pleased about tax cuts to the wealthy while waging two costly wars off budget.
He is very smart, respectful, and while I do not agree with him on everything I think he would be a great Senator.
Also–he is an entrepreneur who is trying to build wind power projects here in Maine. This is a good thing no? Or are we so reactionary that we think all business people are bad?
@beltane. No, Maine is not Vermont and Northern Maine is not Southern Maine and Coastal Maine is not inland Maine. Think of North and Western Maine like the buckle of the bible belt. Very conservative, especially on social issues –abortion, guns, etc.
Culture of Truth
I would not say prescient so much as insightful.
Jess
@AA+ Bonds: As I said, FOLLOW THE LINKS BACK to an interview with King, the one that Digby quotes from.
ps: the interview is dated 8/2005, and the deficits he’s critiquing are from Bush’s unfunded wars, not Obama’s stimulus monee$.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@NR: You want progressive legislation? You better do something more substantive than slitting your wrists over the unfairness of it all, and get enough progressives elected to get those policy proposals enacted.
Right now progressives have nothing. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Not one “progressive” politician in Congress. And I’ll go out on a limb here and predict you’ll never get one, because you’d all rather sit and bitch than do any work whatsoever.
Marc
King was a strong environmentalist, supported Democrats for president, and was well-regarded by liberals in Maine. Digby, like the usual suspects, is drawing an arbitrary purity line in the sand. She is one of a large group of people who made their reputation by raging against the excesses of the Bush administration. She’s stuck in the same mode now, with her relevance swirling down the drain. Some people can’t change their mode when the facts change, and she’s one of them.
And, good lord, but she has always been in desperate need of an editor.
Kilkee
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): Oh sht, no! Sorry about that, AnGus!
FlipYrWhig
@beltane: Digby’s default mode is despondency. :P
In this case, it’s probably inflamed by the idea that Pingree would have been a strong, progressive woman in the Senate — which could use many more of those.
I think we’re going to keep seeing “independent” runs, especially in the Senate, because a bloc in The Middle would be able to set the course of the entire nation. What would you rather be, a junior newcomer within the Democrats or a kingmaker/bridge builder who could detach from partisan orthodoxy without repercussions? Media bigshots love these kinds of people. Think of Bloomberg.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@MomSense: People make the same mistake about California. Hell, in Southern California alone you’ve got L.A., which is not the same as Orange County/San Diego, which is not the same as inland.
Don’t get me started on the rest of the state – there are at least 9 different regions (based on politics) and they all have radically different voting patterns and issues.
FlipYrWhig
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity: Everyone who wants better progressive policymaking should come up with a way to address why the number of people who think Obama isn’t liberal enough is dwarfed by the number of people who think Santorum isn’t conservative enough.
liberal
@MomSense:
Not sure how relevant that is. I just checked the Amer for Dem Action 2010 scorecard for Maine’s representatives. Michaud scored 90%, Pingree 100%.
liberal
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
Really? Tom Harkin, say, isn’t progressive? Do tell.
liberal
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
Yet, strangely enough, California has two Democratic Senators.
Davis X. Machina
@redshirt: There are things in my crisper drawer that would be a more reliable D vote than Joe “Nighthorse” Manchin…
liberal
@Marc:
Pingree’s ADA score for 2010 is 100%.
Maybe King will be a very liberal Senator. Or maybe he’ll be so effective on the national scene in some unforeseen way, it’ll make up for his being less liberal than Pingree. (Like an anti-Lieberman.) Or maybe Pingree would have been fated to lose the seat in another six years.
But all things being equal, we’d be better off if King had decided not to throw his hat in. (Under the assumption Pingree would have won in 2012.)
Why is that so hard to understand?
MomSense
@liberal
Based on thousands and thousands of phone calls to all parts of the state on various issues.
FlipYrWhig
Remember when the blogosphere was up in arms because Ohio “netroots” favorite Paul Hackett was bigfooted by… Sherrod Brown? Good times.
liberal
@FlipYrWhig:
That’s not the question. The question is what’s better for the country.
And bridge builder? Who the hell are you going to build a bridge to? There is no middle, as far as parties are concerned. Nelson was the most right-wing Democrat, and he was to the left of both the Maine divas.
liberal
@MomSense:
Wow. Pretty amazing, then, that both Maine’s reps are so liberal.
Are you sure you did proper statistical weighting in your analyis?
FlipYrWhig
@Davis X. Machina: Manchin ought to be an “independent” too. Probably Bob Kerrey should have taken that route himself.
NCSteve
@liberal:
Right. Because that’s totally what I said.
So, let me see if I can unpack this “math” concept for you since it seems elusive.
Right now, this seat is held by a person who votes to put Republicans in control of the Senate. If King takes it, it becomes one held by a person who will vote to put Democrats in control of the Senate. If Pingeree had run, there was a high likelihood that it would remain held by someone who would vote to put Republicans in charge in the Senate.
And this is kind of a big fucking deal because of the 33 seats at risk this year, 23 are held by Democrats and only 10 are held by Republicans.
If this seat were in the hands of a liberal Democrat now, what you’re saying might make some sense. It’s not.
liberal
@FlipYrWhig:
Barely. I do, however, remember giving Brown a lot of money for the general election.
Davis X. Machina
@liberal: Michaud’s a member of the rapidly-shrinking Blue Dog caucus, and anti-choice.
There’s liberal, and there’s ‘liberal’….
Davis X. Machina
Not in a two-candidate race without an incumbent Republican….
FlipYrWhig
@liberal: The question for whom? I want more Democrats at every level all over the map. But I’m not surprised that ambitious politicos might prefer to call themselves “independent” instead and have their asses kissed nightly by the punditocracy. For all intents and purposes, there was a “centrist” bloc involving Snowe, Collins, Nelson, Lieberman, and (briefly) Specter, and anything that they didn’t approve went down in flames. My prediction is that we’ll keep seeing more politicians trying to get in on that action. If you wanted to have your views count towards what happened in this country, wouldn’t you rather be one of that crew than a Udall or a Begich? That’s probably how King sees it.
OzoneR
I love the first comment on Digby’s post
So, what they’re telling me is the party pushed Chellie Pingree out for Angus King? Why would we want a pushover like Pingree in the Senate anyway?
These people are as illogical as Santorum supporters.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@liberal: Is Feinstein a Dem? Ha, joking. Wish she’d appoint a successor and get out, she’s getting too old.
Not strange at all. The vast majority of the population is in the LA basin and the Bay Area. Both reliably blue, thank goodness.
Where the schizoid aspect of the state comes into play is when you look at the House. The same state that gave the nation Barbara Boxer gives us Darrell Issa.
Also, did not realize Harkin was still serving. Thought he was dead. I guess progressives are going to have to try harder.
liberal
@NCSteve:
This is what you said:
But that’s not the question. Since Snowe has decided not to run, the question is no longer, “Will King make a better Senator than Snowe?” The question Digby and presumably JC are asking is, “Will King make a worse Senator than Pingree would have?”
Who’s currently holding the seat right now is irrelevant to the question being asked.
Davis X. Machina
@OzoneR: You have to cut them some slack — their grief over the loss of Kucinich is still too fresh.
liberal
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
Is Gillibrand dead? ADA gives her 100%.
fasteddie9318
@Kilkee: I, for one, welcome the coming reign of the Anus King. I hope as his first act on the throne, he renames “Congress” the “Pooparliament.”
FlipYrWhig
@OzoneR: Why isn’t it Pingree’s actual decision? Why is it always The Party and The Man and The Patriarchy pulling strings? Isn’t that vastly MORE disempowering, thinking that it’s only a matter of time before someone ruins your political life for spite, on a whim? All the reporting said that Pingree likes King. End of story. FFS.
OzoneR
@AA+ Bonds:
you can’t.
QED
Davis X. Machina
The answer is “absolutely yes, especially if entitlement ‘reform’ comes up”. King, if elected, will positively be the poster boy for Grand-Bargaineering.
The great thing about being independent is that it’s self-justifying. You don’t have to be independent in the service of anything, or from anything. In the MSM, especially, independence is a bonum per se.
liberal
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
My Mom is a S Cal native, so I know quite well how reactionary much of the state is.
Rather, my point is that momsense’s claims about Maine were lacking important details.
If you merely go by “does it have reactionaries/reactionary regions?” w/o more data, you’d think my current state (MD) was at best a purplish red.
OzoneR
@FlipYrWhig:
Because it implies than there’s some evil plot to destroy true believers.
In all likelihood, Pingree is looking at Collins’ seat in 2014. She won’t even be 60 yet.
FlipYrWhig
@liberal: Gillibrand was also derided by “netroots” when she got the nod over, as I recall, Caroline Kennedy. We’ve been through the crying of Insufficiently Liberal Wolf before. Many, many times.
Mnemosyne
@liberal:
What’s the point of the question? It’s purely speculative, because the reason Pingree is not running is because she’s afraid that running would split the vote too evenly between herself and King and the Republican would end up winning.
Basically, Pingree is falling on her sword for the good of the country because, unlike Digby, she understands the electoral calculus in her state and knows that if she and King both run, neither one of them will win. Digby’s playing fantasy baseball by not accepting that fact.
MomSense
@liberal
Well I happen to be a woman so the fact that Michaud is not pro-choice is kind of a big deal to me.
OzoneR
@Davis X. Machina:
The truth of the matter is, we don’t know if Pingree would have moderated her views once in the Senate too. Let’s be real, we’ve seen it happen before.
liberal
@Davis X. Machina:
It’s not really clear he’ll do that; I’m not a Mainer, and people who really know King and/or the state might have very good reasons to poo-poo Digby (and JC). (Unforunately, you very well may be right.)
However, if I had to bet, today, I’d bet Pingree would have won, and King will win but turn out to be not so good as people are making him out to be, and a lot less good than Pingree.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@OzoneR: Can’t make that shit up. That is some serious weapons-grade stupid right there.
I think that people who make posts like this think that politics works like this:
1. Run progressive.
2. MAGIC HAPPENS HERE
3. Progressive is elected.
I’d like to see the country pushed more to the left. But until these self-styled progressives are willing to get off their asses and do some work instead of posting idiot bullshit on the internet, it is not going to happen.
OzoneR
@liberal:
woulda coulda shoulda. you know who would have made a better Senator than both of them? My girlfriend’s lesbian aunt in Freeport- she’s a socialist, but she’s not running either.
We’re replacing Snowe, so the first question still exists, but as far as your second question, Pingree seems to think its irrelevant.
Dave
@liberal: She happens to be right. 1D in Maine is very liberal, 2D is much less so. The Maine coast tends to be liberal, the north and west less so. The interior is more conservative socially but is also blue-collar pro-labor, which is why Mike Michaud is so successful there. It’s also why our State House and State Senate are usually closely divided.
Pingree likely would have won a straight-up two-party contest because there is no good GOP candidate, but she would have depended on large totals along the coast to counteract weaker totals in the north and west. King is popular everywhere in the state. When he decided to enter, the math changed. Pingree isn’t going to beat King. That’s the simple truth.
And King is moderate-to-liberal, not moderate-to-conservative. He’s better than Snowe by a mile, and better than some Dems in the Senate.
Mnemosyne
@liberal:
The reason people are poo-pooing Digby is because of the 2010 governor’s race in Maine, where the vote was split between several liberal candidates and the lone Republican, LePage, was able to win with 38% of the vote.
That’s the scenario Pingree is trying to avoid with this Senate race. Maine Democrats don’t want a repeat of 2010.
liberal
@MomSense:
That’s entirely reasonable.
OzoneR
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
See the problem is, they don’t want to see the country pushed more to the left. They want it to be there, now. They’re like kids who cry at the airport because there’s still another 2 hours flight until they get to Disney World.
Angus King is a push to the left- a certain push to the left. He will not lose, Republicans will barely defend the seat. Pingree is a bigger push to the left, but has much less of a chance to win and gives Republicans a reason to fight for the seat in a cheap state. As it is, PPP’s polls showed Charlie Summers, the GOP tea party candidate Secretary of State, only, what? 3 points behind Pingree in a 3-way race and 8 behind King?
liberal
@Dave:
That datum is pretty much useless without knowing the respective populations.
Yes, I agree that the world “Pingree decides not to run” is a better world than “Pingree and King both decide to run”.
But the claim here is that the world “Pingree runs, King doesn’t” is better than “King runs, Pingree doesn’t.”
Is that distinction really so hard to understand?
Davis X. Machina
@Dave: King is not a traditional liberal, not in any identifiable social-democrat-inflected sense. He fought Maine’s halting steps towards single-payer — we were once out ahead of everybody except maybe Hawai’i on the issue — in the late 90’s and early oughts every step of the way. He could run on the Canadian Liberal Party platform, perhaps.
Dave
@liberal:
And if my aunt had balls she’d be my uncle.
You are arguing for something that isn’t happening. King is running. That is the world you have to deal with. And in that world, Pingree dropping out is the best thing.
liberal
@OzoneR:
That’s not the question. AFAICT everyone concedes that if King decides to run, it’s better if Pingree doesn’t.
The question under discussion is whether the increased risk of a non-Republican losing if Pingree were to run in a two-candidate race (as compared to King versus teahadist crazy) is worth her presumably somewhat better ideological position than Kings.
Dave
@Davis X. Machina: No, he is not a “traditional liberal” He is a moderate-to-liberal. Which, again, is a big step forward from Snowe.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
Awesome.
@liberal: COME ON. Jesus, you’re like the fucking people who kept telling me that I didn’t know what I was talking about when I said that Francine Busby was going to get her clock cleaned running for Duke Cunningham’s old seat, even though I had lived in the district for my entire life and was Busby’s neighbor.
Sure as shit she got her clock cleaned. And she got it cleaned again the second and last time she tried, because my district votes for Republicans even though the registered voter numbers make it seem like it would be competitive.
I listen to people who live in the area when we’re dealing with local/district/state elections. They simply know better. If the Mainers are saying he’s good, I’ll believe them until shown otherwise.
liberal
@Dave:
So?
shortstop
I wonder what would happen if people discussed the situation at hand, which includes the fact that Pingree isn’t running. I know: so crazy even to think that way when we can keep filling the thread with cage matches between non-candidates. So much more fun, and non-coincidentally means we don’t have to pin ourselves down on anything that’s actually happening.
Dave
@liberal: Well, if you want to get yourself all worked up for nothing, I guess you can. But I live in Maine and I am telling you this. The only person in Maine who could beat King for that seat is the woman who just said she isn’t running again.
liberal
@Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity:
The Bayesian prior, so to speak, is that anyone running as an independent in this day and age is a douchebag.
It’s one thing to say that “the knowlege of locals is important.” It’s entirely another thing to say it always trumps.
dogwood
It appears Pingree made a wise choice. The question of whether she would be a better Senator than King is completely irrelevant when faced with the fact she could not beat him in an election. Every state has politicians like Mr. King; they are widely popular and impossible to defeat. Why anyone would want to see Pingree lose her House seat to mount a doomed Senate campaign is beyond me.
liberal
@Dave:
And I’m telling you that if you think you can conduct cost-benefit analyses without considering counterfactuals, you’re a blithering idiot.
PeakVT
If King is a chronic grandstander and is likely to win, it would be better for him to run as an I. The problem for the Democrats is having Democrats go on air and attack Democrats. The media loves them some Divided Dems.
King will be a royal pain if he provides the Dems with the 50th vote, but I think they’ll get to 50 without him.
liberal
@shortstop:
Yeah. Why should we ever consider counterfactuals when arguing about outcomes?
For example, Bush invaded Iraq in March 2003. Since that did happen, and the world in which we didn’t invade Iraq doesn’t exist, it’s impermissible to conduct a cost-benefit computation by (among other things) comparing the world that resulted from that decision to one in which that decision wasn’t made.
Dave
I’ll say something else too. A lot of Democrats up here (myself included) are backing King over minor Democratic candidates like Cynthia Dill. Because we remember the 2010 governor’s election. Eliot Cutler, the independent, surged in the last month. The Democratic candidate (Libby Mitchell) ran a poor campaign and admitted post-election that she knew she wasn’t going to win in the waning weeks. But she stayed in and the vote was split and now we have a borderline-imbecile as Governor.
Pingree remembers that. She’s taking one for the team and doing the right thing. Hopefully the Dems remember that when Collins has to run again.
Dave
@liberal: And if you want to imagine a world where King doesn’t run and progressives run the Senate, that’s great. Meanwhile, in reality, we’ll go with King.
OzoneR
@liberal:
Northern Maine- Aroostook County- is populated with socially conservative, fiscally moderate Dems unlikely to like Pingree much over King. Eastern Maine and the Bangor/Augusta area are political volatile areas that were bases for Collins and Snowe, and areas that have loyal Republican support as well. Pingree would do well downstate along the coast.
liberal
@Mnemosyne:
Do you have any evidence, any at all, that Digby is claiming a three-way race would have been better than a two way race with King and without pingree?
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@liberal: You’re telling at least four – by my count – locals on this thread that you know better than they do who is and who is not electable in their state.
The mildest word I can use to describe this would be “hubris”.
MomSense
I am not at all confident that Pingree could carry the state. She did not win in her previous bid for the Senate. And when she ran before, she ran as a single mom, small business owner from an island (islanders are regarded as highly independent and rugged). She has now spent almost 4 years in Washington, established herself as a liberal with a capital L (fine by me and most of the 1st district) and is now married to a multi gazillionaire. Even in the last election, the issue of Chellie commuting back and forth from DC with her husband on his private jet started to gain some traction.
Here is the thing. We can keep her in the 1st district. Michaud is facing a really tough fight against Kevin Raye in the second so many of us who live in the first district will actually be spending all our time campaigning in the second especially since they redistricted or Raye districted as it has been called. They moved a democratic stronghold out of CD1 and into CD2 so we have to fight for the electoral college vote for the President as well.
King can take the state, will likely caucus with the Dems, will be a huge improvement over the current Senator, and those of us who are on the ground will still have plenty to do to keep the Dems we already have. He was President Obama’s best surrogate in 2008 and made a huge difference in the 2nd District.
If you are still not convinced, we would be happy to have you visit (it is Vacationland after all) and campaign with us. I’ll take you up to the County and you can experience it for yourself. BTW–Mainers will know exactly which county I am talking about.
Djur
You know, basically the entire Democratic party was attacking George Bush on deficits in 2005. Remember Cheney and “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter”? He said that because Democrats were attacking Bush on his tax cuts and costly wars. I guarantee you can dig up quotes from Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid and Barack Obama saying the same shit.
shortstop
@liberal: I know you’re always the center of your own world, but I wasn’t actually referring to you; you proved yourself solidly hopeless at analysis (and analogies) ages ago and don’t really have anything interesting to offer. I was directing my suggestion toward folks who have a much higher hit rate. Still would like to see less what-iffing and more here-we-areing there.
@MomSense: I don’t need convincing, but you remind me that Acadia’s been on my list for some time. I’ll check the airfares.
gwangung
You’re muddying the discussion, I’m afraid, by introducing alternative histories here. Nice if you’re Harry Turtledove, but not real useful here.
Marc
@liberal:
Digby on King:
“He might be a little bit better than Snowe on some things, but I’d guess he’ll be the perfect patsy for the wingnuts most of the time. The beauty of it for the Republicans is that he’ll be put into office by Democrats which makes it all the sweeter when he betrays them. That’s really half the fun.”
—————————-
She seems to be totally wrong about his politics. Why should we trust her judgment on things like electability if she doesn’t know much about the person being elected?
Horrendo Slapp (formerly Jimperson Zibb, Duncan Dönitz, Otto Graf von Pfmidtnöchtler-Pízsmőgy, Mumphrey, et al.)
@liberal:
Funny; that isn’t how I read what he wrote.
Davis X. Machina
@MomSense: Good luck — it’s a heavy lift. Michaud’s problem in a match-up with Raye is that Raye isn’t nutty enough — a lot of Michaud’s vote is actually people who want a moderate Repubican, and the state GOP won’t give them one… not since Bennett in ’94 anyways, near as I can remember. Gay marriage on the ballot, too — and the new new 2nd district map is basically all the places where the ’09 ‘people’s veto’ referendum won.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@Marc: Digby’s one of a dismayingly high number of folks of the liberal persuasion who are only happy when they’re on the losing team.
redshirt
@MomSense: Mars Hill, represent!
Agree with all the Mainers in this thread. King will win, and will support Obama. And he’s not a Teabagger. That’s what matters to me.
dogwood
@shortstop:
Virtual candidates and virtual politics never let you down, that’s why. Real politicians who win real elections and have to take crappy votes or decide between two terrible options are always selling us out.
And as far as Digby bringing up something King said about deficits in 2005, well, that’s pretty disingenuous. That kind of deficit talk was pretty standard for all Democrats during that time. The fact is deficits do matter. It’s how and when you deal with them that is central to the issue.
Mnemosyne
@liberal:
Since that’s not what I said, I don’t know why I need evidence.
What I did say was that the 2010 governor’s race was a frickin’ disaster for the Democrats and the state because several liberals ran against each other and left space for the Republican to sneak in and win it with 38% of the vote. Sure, it would have been nice for King to drop out and let Pingree run, but once he refused to do it, Pingree didn’t really have any other choice. Yes, in a perfect world, King would have been the one to withdraw, but he didn’t, so we have to go with the hand we were dealt.
But, then, I’m not big on crying over spilt milk or brooding over the coulda-shoulda-wouldas.
eemom
@MomSense:
Ah. That reminds me of a lovely vacation the hubster (then bf) and I had up there a million years ago. We hiked in Acadia, which is gorgeous. And in a bar in Portland one rainy day, we met a diamond-in-the-rough Vietnam vet who took us on a ferry to a place called Chebeague Island that we totally loved. Shared a killer joint with us too.
Good times. [sigh]
Kilkee
@eemom: Can you guys take me to that bar and find that guy? ‘Cause I would totally take you on the Casco Bay ferry to Chebeague if you would. Maybe even buy you dinner at the Inn.
Keith G
I don’t know King from squat, but he did say:
I didn’t know Obama from squat, but he did say:
OzoneR
@liberal:
Because that’s not what you said in the first place. You think anyone here WANTED King to run?
You think anyone here doesn’t want Pingree in the Senate?
Reality, try it out.
Narcissus
I’m just here for the Anus King
pseudonymous in nc
@liberal:
Your Bayesian prior must be fucking the nuns in the granary, because he hasn’t noticed Bernie Sanders.
Don K
@Davis X. Machina:
But that’s not the choice here. King likely can largely self-fund, and is determined to run, so the choice in the real world is a two-person race that King almost certainly wins, versus a three-person race with a substantial probability that Maine has a TPer Senator for six years, but that would give progressives the opportunity to say, “At least we were pure and we tried!”
redshirt
@eemom: I come from Acadia! Spent many a day as a youth in that glorious National Park. It’s heaven. In the summer. As with most things in Maine, if you don’t ski/snow mobile.
Also, too: All Hail Anus King!
OzoneR
@Don K:
No it wouldn’t. It would give progressives the opportunity to say “Chellie Pingree ran a bad campaign/the national party didn’t help her cause they hate women”
Just check out the “Elizabeth Warren is an awful candidate what were we thinking?” pity party over at DailyKos in the threads about she’s fallen behind in polls.