Another OK jobs report, with some graphs. Time to put some more women up in stirrups and print more pictures of Obama hugging black people.
Update: Or, you can just deny reality. Reince Preibus is sure more of a Michael Steele than a Lee Atwater, Ed Gillespie or Ken Mehlman.
Schlemizel
Is it even legal for black people to hug? Certainly if someone had video of Obama hugging a black person that would be a blockbuster that would destroy his hopes for re-election, right?
Jean
And right on cue, Cantor and McConnell come out complaining about the unemployment numbers and the slow growth of the economy. So what have they done to help the situation? Focus on contraception. Destroy unions. Slash away voting rights. Vote against every bill that addresses the economy. Ok, go with that to the polls in November, Tea Party (formerly, the Republican Party).
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Schlemizel: I believe the rule is that two black men can only be near each other if they are out in the field. The hugging just pushed it over the line.
c u n d gulag
Better yet – they have pictures of the President kissing a Nigra woman on the mouth.
And hugging two young Nigra girls
And – A DOG!
And you all know who else hugged dogs, don’t you?
HITLER – THAT’S WHO!!!
Ash Can
@Schlemizel: Not only that, I have it on good authority that he hugs black people every day. You know, with those people in the White House and all…
ETA @ c u n d gulag: I like yours even better.
Tone In DC
Cantor’s verbal diarrhea is beneath contempt, IMHO. Turtle Dude is no better. Don’t get me started on Orange Julius.
Have I mentioned the Teahadists all need to swim for a long time in the Potomac?
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Jean: Actually, from what I understand, the fact that the unemployment rate stayed steady while the number of actual jobs increased is a good thing. I think it means people are starting to get back into looking for jobs.
Don’t worry, though, when things improve more, they’ll argue Obama had nothing to do with it.
WyldPirate
@Jean: @Jean:
A lot of voters don’t give a shit about what the Rethugs have done; they give a shit about not having a job or the fact that they have one that pays 1/2 of what their former job did. Many of those people will blame Obama for their predicament.
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
All of this is meaningless, of course. The wingnuts are set on rock and roll to save their gawd king Rushbo. Malkin rides to the rescue, with some Twitchy advertising, whatever the fuck Twitchy is.
Now the winger swarm to demand firing of a top WAPO
comedy bloggerreporter, for the surreal crime of lying about Rush Limbaugh, and sending irony on a mission to Mars.It’s really more than my delicate Obot nerves can handle, requiring a repair to the fainting couch for treatment of galloping vapors. Will this clown war never end?
and OK jobs report is Ok with me. And hopefully voters.
Surreal American
@c u n d gulag:
Not just any dog, a BLACK DOG!!!
MikeJ
Before the whining about U6 starts, you’ll note that it is also down. Not a lot, but headed in the right direction. 15.1 in Jan and 14.9 in Feb.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@WyldPirate: Let me know when that number gets above 27%.
RalfW
This nugget from Calculated Risk needs to be expanded/explained. It’s too casual a ‘btw’ when I think it points to shifts that would be happening anyway but are getting heaped as Obama’s fault.
More context, please!
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Nice one!
MikeJ
@RalfW: Who was it last month screaming fraud in lower unemployment numbers because the participation rate didn’t match the long term average? The same as saying that since the average daily temp in Seattle is 58F, any time someone says it is snowing they’re trying to commit fraud.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
I have seen photographic evidence that President hugs white people too. They are probably radicals of some strip as well, lurking undercover as happy grannies.
Suffern ACE
@General Stuck- of course, they go after the woman and try to get her fired. I have no idea if she’s worth defending. Now if they’d go after Fred Hiatt, I might consider joining them.
Anya
I think the Obama hugging a black man “controversy” is a complete dud, even with conservatives. Case in point, few days ago Drudge had a countdown in anticipation of the video. Today, the video or any talk of it is nowhere to be found on his front page (I can’t last that long at Drudge).
Satanicpanic
Derrick Bell is the new Saul Alinsky, as in who is Saul Alinsky?
WyldPirate
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Keep on kidding yourself. Given the best conditions possible for Obama come Nov., the Rethugs still pull 45% of the vote. Add in something bad happening and it tightens up a lot and could swing the wrong way.
That 45% is indicative of a country that is chock full of stupid fuckwits given the Rethug shenanigans and incompetance of the last 30 years.
BenA
@RalfW: My completely uneducated guess is that the labor participation rate is down due to a larger number of people being of retirement age. Baby boomer retirement = larger percentage of the population not working.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Anya: I think the point was to associate Obama with another scary black man. That surprise fell apart when everyone found out the video had been public for years. The hugging was someone grasping at something to show that the video had been tampered with, and has just become the symbol of just how much Breitbart was the intelligence behind this group, scary thought that is.
Zifnab
They’ve killed any opportunity for further stimulus and papered up a weak-tea JOBS Act bill. And thank heavens for that. As we approach a new age of economic recovery and growth, we’ll need brave leaders like McConnell and Cantor to suggest that we cut taxes and lower government regulations to continue our amazing recovery.
What more could you ask of them?
Villago Delenda Est
@Anya:
Aaronson, Rutherford, and Jones…unpersons.
New Yorker
@BenA:
That’s exactly it. The long-term trend in the participation rate was going downward anyway. The recession may have just quickened that process. Some of the 60-something boomers may jump back into the labor force, but a lot won’t, even if they hadn’t planned on “retiring” when their job was cut in 2009.
It’s tough to find a dark lining in the silver cloud that is jobs creation so far in 2012, but people will try.
harlana
well THIS has created an awesome comment stream
JPL
@BenA: Obamacare (Affordable Health Care) is suppose to increase the number of retirees significantly. From my understanding there are millions who work solely, for the insurance coverage.
harlana
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): i know he held a white baby (probably another commie plant) one time – the mom was shoving it in Michelle’s face, but still . . .
Rafer Janders
@Schlemizel:
It’s not a hug. It’s a terrorist body jab.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@WyldPirate: WP, I think we’re going to have to work our butts off and contribute a lot to every campaign we can. I don’t think this is going to be easy because, like you said, there are a lot of dumb fucks who would still vote Republican if McConnell shoved a hot poker up their ass in the voting booth. But it doesn’t serve us at all to ignore what people are thinking whether it’s good or bad for us. It drove me nuts in 2010 when people kept saying “There will be a swing back to the Democrats because the polls aren’t taking _____ into account” and it drives me nuts now to hear the opposite.
But, if all the Republicans get is 45% they lose.
cmorenc
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
It’s also ok if they are passing a bottle of cheap whiskey or wine back and forth. This scenario is the proper subject of disapproval, but isn’t anything threatening. Now two black men passing a joint back and forth….you have two hippies and two black men all rolled into one dangerous-looking happening…
I grew up in a small town in North Carolina and a great many white folk really did think this way, long after nominal desegregation happened.
RossInDetroit
Bonddad Blog is covering the jobs news as usual. They always have excellent graphs. I like graphs…
Ash Can
@harlana: I laugh every time I think of the video of Michelle and Barack and the crying baby. That was classic.
Another Halocene Human
Wow, DEC and JAN were revised UP.
Watch that troll talking point go down the memory hole.
harlana
@New Yorker: no way that’s happening – there are NO jobs out there for anyone over 50 except Walmart greeters – esp if you’ve been out of work, for whatever reason, for any extended period of time (1 year and up) – you can pack it in – it’s hard enough for 40-somethings to overcome extended unemployment, regardless of the circumstances of how they ended up unemployed – if a potential employer sees you are currently unemployed, 9 times out of 10, your resume goes straight to the shredder
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
(Let me just say: FYWP)
@WyldPirate: WP, I think we’re going to have to work our butts off and contribute a lot to every campaign we can. I don’t think this is going to be easy because, like you said, there are a lot of dumb fucks who would still vote Republican if McConnell shoved a hot stick up their ass in the voting booth. But it doesn’t serve us at all to ignore what people are thinking whether it’s good or bad for us. It drove me nuts in 2010 when people kept saying “There will be a swing back to the Democrats because the polls aren’t taking _ into account” and it drives me nuts now to hear the opposite.
But, if all the Republicans get is 45% they lose.
arguingwithsignposts
@WyldPirate: Shorter WP: Gloom, despair and agony on me!
Another Halocene Human
@General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero): re: Twitchy: not getting off the boat. Am certain the mangoes are rotten.
So, the other day, someone opined to me that the dittoheads were online. What I’m wondering is, the number of pro-Rush trolls doesn’t even seem to match up to Britefart’s sorry contingent. Yeah, they’ve trolled social media, but in a pathetic way. And some of them surely came from Hannity or somebody like that.
I dunno… you know how authoritarian followers are… they’ve abandoned leaders they’ve found weak or irrelevant before. (And social dominators turn at the scent of blood.)
I hate to say it, but people do follow Malkin. Ugh, ugh, ugh.
I think I will go read some Ta-Nehisi Coates to clear the scent of puke out of my brain.
Schlemizel
@Rafer Janders:
8-{D
Dave
@MikeJ: Thank you for pointing that out. U6 is at its lowest level since 2009.
Veritas
Too little, too late for Obambi and friends.
And what will sky-high gas prices due to this already weak “recovery” come summer time?
arguingwithsignposts
@Veritas:
VICTORY!?
Dave
@Veritas: Learn to spell, dumbass.
Yutsano
@Veritas: Ahh poor Veritas. Still willing to kill the economy and make people suffer as long as THAT ONE gets evicted from the White House. What an amazing patriot you are.
Veritas
More than half-of these “jobs” were low-paying part time service help.
People are still struggling.
They’re still making far less than when the Greater Depression began.
Young people, especially, have been out of work for years now, with whatever skills they have deteriorating leading to a life of permanent underemployment.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Veritas: If we’re lucky, put some people to work figuring out why gas prices are so high if we have three times as many wells as we did when Obama started his term.
Veritas
@Yutsano:
I look at the truth, and reality. The reality is that this economy is in bad, bad, bad shape, the “recovery” nothing more than a dead cat bounce.
With Europe and China on the brink, I think “progressives” are fools for breaking out the champagne for two weak-ass jobs reports.
Veritas
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
When Obambi started his term, gas prices were $1.87 a gallon.
Now? Nearly $4, and going UP.
Hmmmmm…..
Dave
@Veritas: Wrong. Half the jobs in the Professional / Business Services section were temporary help (45K of 82K). That accounts for less than 20% of the total jobs created.
rlrr
@Shit for Brains:
Obambi
I bet you also thought you were being clever when you spelled Clinton with a K.
Chyron HR
@Veritas:
Has the real fight begun yet? Should we be scared now?
Yutsano
@Veritas:
Objection: assumes facts not in evidence. You are famous for factless unsubstantiated rants and trite provocation. Your “truth” does not conform to actual reality. So please, and with all haste, get over yourself.
MikeJ
@Dave: You’re not being fair. You can read.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Veritas: When I was born, gasoline cost 25C, yet I’m not to blame for it. Bread was also pretty cheap.
Why don’t you start talking about your friends that have no problem making money here by creating an artificial shortage.
Hal
I was reading bagnewsnotes on the video and in the comments section I learned:
bagnewsnotes.com/2012/03/they-think-the-obama-harvard-derric-bell-video-makes-the-president-look-bad…
1. The video is edited by mysterious liberals.
2. The edited part removes Obama hugging!!! Derek Bell.
3. The video is of a “racist rally” with racists, and why can’t you idiot libruls see the racism at that racist rally for racists.
4. Oh, and the Democrats voted against the civil rights movement and black people have Republicans to thank for their freedom.
Veritas
Can the jobs numbers even be trusted?
arguingwithsignposts
@Veritas:
What was the minimum wage when the Great Depression began?
Chyron HR
@Veritas:
Of course you can’t trust numbers. Most of them were invented by Islamofascists.
JPL
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): tsk, tsk.. don’t use facts because they have a liberal bias.
Go with all the job programs that repubs have passed. Isn’t there a jobs program that says companies don’t have to provide health care.
Edit..what other jobs programs have the repubs created?
OzoneR
@WyldPirate:
Well then 227,000 new jobs this month will alleviate that problem, won’t it?
rlrr
@Chyron HR:
Along with algebra…
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
@Veritas:
Manufacturing jobs continue to be created with this recovery, as compared to under Bush, the country shed hundreds of thousands of middle class backbone manufacturing jobs. And there are always going to be a lot of service jobs, but adding month to month manufacturing as well as better paying health care service jobs, is likely more important than anything, politically, and substantially in local communities where word of mouth that such jobs are returning will raise consumer confidence, as well as Obama confidence politically. Goodbye wingnut talking points on econ fail, hello birth control jihad. The GOP end game is predictable as it circles the shitter.
Do you surf, by any chance?
Suffern ACE
Well it shouldn’t be too hard to recreate those conditions that led to the collapse of gas prices in 2008.
OzoneR
@Veritas:
actually, they’re down a few cents this week
Uncle Cosmo
@Yutsano:
Whaddaya mean “willing”? For crapheads like V, that’s called a two-fer!
Ash Can
Oh come on, DougJ, stop spamming the thread.
And ETA: “Or, you can just deny reality.”
When you’ve got nothing, you just have to make shit up.
Chyron HR
@OzoneR:
But can the gas station price numbers even be trusted?
Schlemizel
@Chyron HR:
scared is the only emotion the liar pretending to be truth knows for sure. This is the same clown that guaranteed us 3 1st place finishes a few weeks ago for the dog torturer who promptly went 0 fer 3. If it had a road map, a state of the art GPS, a team of Tennessee tracking hounds and guidance from the Lord Jehovah it couldn’t find its own ass in a fortnight.
It is scared because it knows the dog torturer is the only thing the GOP has that would not be laughed off stage in the general. It is going to have to live with a colored guy as its President for another 4 years. It has no idea why that scares it but it knows it is supposed to scare it so it does. Its oracle is losing advertisers like there is no tomorrow so it is not sure who will tell it what to be scared of soon. Even its reliable TV has dropped the ball badly recently & the fear is in their voices too.
rlrr
@Shit for Brains:
Your homework:
Compare the net number of private sector jobs created during the eight years that George W. Bush was President with the net number of private sector jobs created so far during Obama’s Presidency. Show your work and remember this will be part of your final grade.
Uncle Cosmo
@Veritas:
You can claim to look at whatever you want, but given where your head is located, you’re not going to see anything but the lining of your colon.
Democratic Nihilist, Keeper Of Party Purity
@General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero): Veritas don’t surf.
I notice that someone has stopped talking about Romney. I wonder why that is? I mean, it’s in the bag at this point, mathematically the other guys can’t win.
Hungry Joe
Preibus was on NPR Tuesday, offering his analysis. He said that everything was looking good for the GOP because the economy was tanking, Obama’s numbers were tanking, and they had a strong field of presidential candidates. I wondered how my radio was suddenly picking up a broadcast from an alternate universe.
chopper
i like one of the comments on maddow’s blog:
beltane
It’s all well and good that the economy is improving, but did you know that there are people in this country who are having sex? Yes, it’s true. And some of these people having sex are women. Worst of all, all these women having sex are not having sex with Republicans. This is just like Hitler.
Veritas
@rlrr:
Still blaming Bush. Yawn. Why not take responsibility for Obambi’s own failed record instead of STILL blaming Bush?
Satanicpanic
@beltane: Republicans have done our nation a great service by drawing this to our attention and I can only hope they continue to do so.
OzoneR
@Veritas:
blaming Bush for what? he simply asked you to compare their records. Are you too afraid to do it?
RossInDetroit
@Veritas:
This is a joke, right? You’re a parody? Because nobody is that stupid.
Linda Featheringill
@General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero):
:-)
chopper
@Veritas:
and i look at my neighbor’s porsche. so the fuck what?
Chyron HR
@Veritas:
So why haven’t we heard anything more about Romney offering Cain the VP spot?
I guess nothing gets “conservatives” steamed quite like a black man just existing.
Suffern ACE
A lot of Vertias’ posts on our dire economic straits could have been written by a Mondale staffer in 1984.
New Yorker
@Veritas:
Can you explain to me how Obama is responsible for gas prices being where they are? Explain the logic of that in macroeconomic terms, please?
Thanks.
rlrr
@Shit for Brains:
Where did I blame Bush? I simply suggested you look at the numbers and get back to us.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Veritas: Yep, and I still blame Bush for botching Afghanistan and invading Iraq.
kdaug
@Chyron HR:
Ah, but you see, he writes down his abacus tallies in Roman numerals.
Keepin’ it pure.
rlrr
@New Yorker:
Silly, gas prices are high because “one of those” is in the White House.
The Other Bob
@Veritas:
Gas might have been $1.87 when Obama took office, but it was $4.12 a gallon only 6 months earlier. Yeah gas was cheap, becuase the economy fell off a cliff. Is that how Newt will bring it down to $2.50?
Pesky facts can be found here.
rlrr
@kdaug:
I dunno, who invented the abacus?
WyldPirate
OzoneR:
It’s a positive sign for sure, but I’m beginning to question the mumerical literacy of many posters here.
Go look at the first ink in the post at calculated risk. We have certainly had a trend of positive numbers over the past two years. However, only nine of those months have seen job growth in excess of 150k. We need roughly 150k per month in new jobs to keep up with new additions to the work force.
The bottom line is that the growth isn’t nearly fast enough and it will take most of the rest of the decade to get employment numbers back to where they were in 2007. A sluggish job growth rate will also not be amenable to increasing wages amongst the middle and lower income groups who were battered during Bush’s term and ended up earning roughly 2k per year less after adjusting for inflation in 2008 than they did in 2010.
New Yorker
I suppose one way to make oil prices drop a bit would be to work to defuse the tensions with Iran. Who is more likely to do that, Obama, or Santorum/Romney?
JPL
@rlrr: Are you accusing troll of always wanting to explain things in black/white terms?
Martin
Moar wingnut fail:
The GOP helped kick this case all the way up to the Supreme Court. It’d be one thing if the mandate only impacted Brown and she died an early death as a result, or something like that. But she’s in bankruptcy. Her lack of health insurance now directly affects her creditors, so the plaintiff instead demonstrates that there is a broad social benefit to the mandate.
So much fail.
JPL
@New Yorker: In the olden days someone did say attacking Iraq would lower gas prices…
New Yorker
@WyldPirate:
And in the last 3 months, we’ve had over 220,000 per month in job growth. I’m not sure why you’re harping on the jobs numbers from February 2010 or 2011.
The Other Bob
@New Yorker:
Or we could just nuke the major oil users in the world. A proposal to nuke China and India should be forthcoming from the warmongers primary.
rlrr
@JPL:
If it quacks like a duck…
GregB
Clearly the numbers should only be trusted when they show job losses.
The GOP is going to have to campaign on tearing America down, as they have actually done in the past 30 years.
Mnemosyne
@Dave:
Technically, he has homophone trouble.
The classic example of pronoun trouble.
scav
@WyldPirate: The jobless recovery didn’t start in ’07, I remember similar numbers at CR for like, well, forever.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Veritas:
Why don’t you lead us to CORRECT though here Veritas? According to the political philosophy you have embraced Veritas the government is NEVER the solution, as St Regan famously said. Now with that in might WHAT could “Obambi” possibly do as president? A leader who sits on his ass and goes “were doomed!” is exactly the kind of leader you want.
If you’re right Veritas the Great Recession is here to stay. Now don’t that make you all warm and fuzzy?
Martin
@WyldPirate:
And you just demonstrate you have no idea how the public receives these things. The public responds to trends. It’s not the raw numbers that matter, but the first derivative. Are things getting better or worse? Even if they’re bad, but the public believes they’re getting better, they’re not going to want to fuck with it, because they don’t want to risk switching horses for someone who might make the ‘getting better’ part go away. Ultimately, that’s what drives people’s vote – it’s all hope and fear.
kdaug
@Veritas:
And I look at a computer screen of text with some guy calling himself “truth” telling me he looks at himself, for realz, and it proves he is he.
Wormhole, folks. Swear to Dog.
Veritas
@WyldPirate:
Maybe the Obambibots won’t listen to me, but they may listen to you as a voice from the left who, like me, knows reality when they see it staring them in the face instead of happy talk from the propaganda arm of the WH.
rlrr
Romney’s VP pick…
Ash Can
@Martin: Psst — your link is fuxx0red.
RossInDetroit
The private sector is adding a lot of jobs but the public sector continues to shed them. If government rehiring had kept pace with the private sector we’d be in much better shape now. This has been a major drag on employment numbers and the economy. Falling tax receipts have forced cities, states and the Fed gov to cut payrolls. Add to that the deferred infrastructure spending and slashed programs, and you have government(s) hindering the recovery.
Mnemosyne
@Martin:
That’s a big part of how Bush II won in 2004 — they started making gestures about how the war in Iraq was getting better and we were winning in Afghanistan and did you really want to change horses in mid-stream?
As the incumbent, Obama has a huge advantage as long as things seem to be improving, even if the improvement is slow. Even our friend WP seems to have found a job after a long period of unemployment, which had been the source of much bitterness expressed here a few months ago.
RP
It’s always amusing when the complaints about stuff like this from the far left and the far right are identical.
Martin
@Ash Can: FYWP! (Actually, that was user error, but don’t tell Cole). LATimes:
Plaintiff challenging healthcare law went bankrupt – with unpaid medical bills
rlrr
@RossInDetroit:
Isn’t austerity wonderful?
arguingwithsignposts
@Veritas:
And the circle is complete.
Soonergrunt
Comedian Andy Borowitz tweeted last week that it was a sign that the economy was improving that the Republicans were re-focusing on President Obama’s birth certificate and college years.
Soonergrunt
@arguingwithsignposts: “When I left you, I was but the Learner. Now I am the Master.”
Ash Can
@Veritas:
@rlrr:
OK, these are the cappers of what has been, for me, an absolutely hilarious thread. Kudos to you both — I love a good laugh with my morning coffee.
Amir Khalid
@Veritas:
For an assessment of Obama’s “failed” record, see this Washington Monthly article that mistermix linked to three posts back. In particular, take note of this paragraph:
Chyron HR
@Veritas:
It’s so admirable the way you know reality when it’s staring you in the face.
Satanicpanic
@RP: My wingnut uncle and my communist brother are in complete agreement that Obama is Hitler.
Calouste
@Veritas:
You do. Through a telescope. From a galaxy far, far away.
Tone In DC
@Uncle Cosmo:
LULz.
scav
And wonder what the hell is that!
2012
elmo
@Martin:
Her lawyer then stuck her thumbs in her ears, waggled her fingers, and said, “Neener neener,” to complete the compelling argument.
Daaling
mistermix seems so disappointed that the jobs report is ok. If only it was bad he could connect all sorts of dots to paint a picture of Ron Paul winning the white house and how we should be afraid of that.
WyldPirate
@New Yorker:
I’m harping on it for a couple of reasons. One is that this is by far the weakest recovery from a recession since the Great Depression with respect to job growth. If the economy keeps averaging 250k additional jobs per month for the next two years, that’s only going to get ~2.4 million of the nearly 15 million unemployed back to work after you consider new entrants into the work force. Sure, its’s better than the alternative of negative job growth, but the numbers indicate that we are having a fundamentally different recovery than recessions of the past.
Less clear is the effect seasonal adjustmants are having on the job growth data. This article makes a reasonable argument that the improvements in the U3 rate has been overstated.
As I said earlier, the numbers are good news, but they certainly aren’t close to being great.
feebog
@ Wyld Pirate
While that 150K number has been “common wisdom” for a long time, it may not be true anymore. The reason: the baby boomer generation. That generation extends from 1945 to 1960. Someone born on the cusp of that span turned 66 last year and was eligble for full social security. In fact, many of those born in the mid 40’s have already retired; they either took an early retirement, or have been out of work and simply decided they would not re-enter the work force. But the bulk of the BB generation are just reaching normal retiremenet age, and that means that the 66 to 67% work force model may no longer be valid. Its not as low as 63%, but it certainly will be less than 67%.
At the rate we are adding jobs right now, there will be two million more people who are working by next November. The unemployment rate will be under 8% and still dropping. Obama can and will point at congress and call them out on the fact that they have done absolutely nothing to help the situation.
And yes, most likely 45% will pull the lever for whoever the Republican nominee is in November. If that is the case we will retake the House and maintain control of the Senate. And that is something to look forward to.
Martin
@Mnemosyne: The govt also revised upward the jobs from the last two months:
Those are big upward revisions. They were off by 15% in Jan. There’s a big of a self-employment boom going on as well. Those are always iffy, because it’s hard to measure whether the self-employment is being successful or not, but there are good signs that these things are going well. Silicon Valley is building unsecured commercial space again, thanks to those industries doing so well. Property values will start to climb again in the next few months (residential demand lags commercial by about 6 months). We’re seeing new construction down here in the OC again as well. Not only are those indicative that builders are seeing demand – that is, jobs are being created to drive that need for space, but they generate jobs themselves to do the construction.
These other signs suggest this isn’t just temporary. Money is being spent in anticipation of continued growth – and that’s the tipping point. Now we need to see it everywhere. And the unchanged unemployment suggests that workers are a bit more encouraged as they’re re-entering the job market.
scav
@WyldPirate: But admit too that this is exactly the pattern we had during the last so-called recovery.
Schlemizel
@Martin:
I assume they will not be allowed to argue that before the USSC. facts are not discussed there only constitutional law. How I wish our linbrule media could be counted on to point this story out.
scav
@scav: FYWP won’t admit I edited ETA: That is to say, this may be the new normal.
WyldPirate
@Mnemosyne:
This is key. I think if things stay the way they are, Obama wins in a walk as Romney’s sole argument for his campaign is his faux economic wizardy as a vulture capitalist MOTU. That bullshit won’t flush as long as things don’t get worse and he has the added deficit of being one of the most plastic, dishonest fucks to ever run for office.
What I’m worried about are things beyond Obama’s control like; gas prices, Southern Europe going tits up or something nastier happening in the Mideast.
WyldPirate
@scav:
True. I think the one during the Bush malAdministration, while less deep, was a harbinger of the fact that our economy is far less resilient WRT to employment rebounding after a downturn..
Another Halocene Human
@Veritas:
Words… they do not mean what you think they mean.
Dead cat bounce? You utter fool.
Rafer Janders
@WyldPirate:
Even then I don’t think it’s necessarily bad for Obama. In case of crisis, voters are going to choose between cool, calm, collected Obama, whom they’ve already seen handle several past crises quite skilfully, or the Republican candidate, who will immediately start screeching in panic about how OMG they’re coming to kill us all! It won’t be much of a choice.
Rafer Janders
@WyldPirate:
Even then I don’t think it’s necessarily bad for Obama. In case of crisis, voters are going to choose between cool, calm, collected Obama, whom they’ve already seen handle several past crises quite skilfully, or the Republican candidate, who will immediately start screeching in panic about how OMG they’re coming to kill us all! It won’t be much of a choice.
Jewish Steel
@Martin:
You know what that means, right? We’re puttin’ the Culture War band back together, dude!
New Yorker
@WyldPirate:
We’re having a “fundamentally different recovery” because the recession was fundamentally different: it was a major financial crisis, which usually leads to decades of stagnation for the nation that suffered through it. If it feels like something we haven’t experienced since the 30s, that’s because it is.
I wish I could remember where I saw it, but there was a chart that compared the percentage job losses in different countries that went through a financial collapse and the duration of time needed to get back to the previous employment peak. Not only was the percentage of job losses here far, far less than it was in, say, Sweden in 1991, the duration necessary to make up all the job losses is going to be far, far shorter on the current trajectory (hell, Japan still hasn’t made up all the jobs lost 20 years after their crisis).
Another Halocene Human
@Hal: 3. Racist against white supremacists and aimless toffs.
ruemara
@Martin: can thee fix the url? pls?
Another Halocene Human
@arguingwithsignposts:
Well, that’s the nub, isn’t it? Many employers have been reluctant to hire and those left at the job are working tons of overtime they never asked for.
I work in public sector and we are pushing for hiring… it doesn’t really cost them that much when we’re talking about this level of time and a half. (Their big fear is healthcare costs, which ACA begins to address, and pension liability, which is imo overblown.)
People are getting tired. They are used to the new normal and starting to tell their boss to shove it even with a weak job market. Lots who were underwater on their house have lost the house and moved in with family, lowering their monthly expenses. They may be clearing more monthly than they were before the recession.
In fact, we KNOW they are clearing more monthly than before the housing bubble burst because American households have been making savings deposits for months now. During the bubble, American households were in negative territory (especially those households with option ARMs!).
ETA: if those blockquote tags fail to nest, a big FY to WP!
gogol's wife
@arguingwithsignposts:
that’s great, love the hound dawg
Another Halocene Human
@Chyron HR: You almost owed me a new keyboard for that one! LOL!
ruemara
@ruemara: herp derp. while I was busy elsewhere, You did it. thanks.
Mnemosyne
@WyldPirate:
If there is some kind of unforeseen disaster, and people have to choose between Obama, the guy who they’ve already seen take on the stimulus, the Republicans, and Gaddafi, and Mitt Romney, a guy with exactly four years of executive experience of a medium-size state, I’m pretty convinced they’re going to stick with Obama. It’s human nature to go with the devil you know, which finally works in our favor.
Obama would have to make some kind of major mistake that could be traced to him personally for him to lose to Romney. People love to bring up Carter vs. Reagan, but a huge part of that was the hostage crisis in Iran, which by this point in 1980 had already been going on for over 4 months (the hostages were first captured on Nov. 4, 1979).
WyldPirate
@Mnemosyne: @Mnemosyne:
For the most part I agree with your take on this, Mnemosyne. I think that Obama might suffer worse should something go south than Carter did. There are a lot of folks in the electorate that won’t cut Obama the slack the did Carter. Plus, Carter had the problem of the economy with skyhigh interest rates, rising unemployment and the Iran thing.
If everything holds, I think Obama wins. I do think he may lose some states he won last time like NC and Indiana.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Veritas:
what part of “a lot of the readers of Balloon Juice are ex-conservative, like John Cole” does a jackwagon like you don’t understand?
There is a reason we don’t listen to conservtards like you Veritas; we’ve been there, done that it’s all horseshit. There is nothing you can Veritas we haven’t heard and debunk before.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@WyldPirate:
Quite possible. On the other hand there is nobody in the GOP today who can hold a candle to Reagan in terms of political talent. And that is not just a post-facto judgment based on the 1980 and 1984 elections. Reagan’s political success as governor of California prior to the 1980 election dwarfs anything that Romney has accomplished to date, and Reagan was much more polished of a political speaker than Mitt is. And in 1980 the Southern Strategy was still in mid-game, with GOP gains amongst Southern Democrats yet to be harvested, not in the end-state it has reached today.
Jay C
OK: The European problem looks like it is, whether they like the options or not, going to have to be dealt with (and IS being dealt with) by the Europeans themselves. A “tits up” in Europe benefits precisely no one: but a flat economy there will make the US economy just look better by comparison: no real (domestic) political issue.
As for gas prices: I’m sure Dr. Veritas, with his advanced degree from the Close Cover Before Striking Institute of Economics will be along shortly to explain his sure-fire plan to lower retail pump prices just in time to insure VICTORY! for President
Paul Gingrich CainRomney; but until then, I’m sure the REAL President will be able toshift the blameexplain the situation well enough to avoid political problems. He IS pretty smart.The MidEast might (as always) be a problem, and Republicans will shriek and shrill away about (as always): but that will just have to wait to be seen.
Mnemosyne
@WyldPirate:
I’m not sure what you mean by “suffer worse” since Carter lost the election and was popularly considered the worst modern president after Nixon for many years. It’s not like they can take the guy out on the South Lawn and shoot him if he loses.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Mnemosyne:
I read that phrase to mean: have his polling numbers slide farther downhill prior to the election, than did Carter’s numbers. Of course your version would be vastly funnier than mine, if we didn’t live in a world where far too many folks on the Right would like to do just exactly what you outlined.
Recall
@New Yorker: The difference is all political. Massive government hiring could solve our economic problems in under a year.
New Yorker
@Recall:
True. Now tell John Boehner and Mitch McConnell.
Another Halocene Human
@Martin:
I’m in Florida. While FL is a basket case due to our Dixie Republican super-majority and Crook-in-Charge Pink Slip Rick (Scott–although, “what is it with Ricks?” /Harry Plinkett), I am seeing commercial space that went empty or had a tenant that was paying no rent, slowly, slowly start to be filled. It may not be with frothy, bubblelicious businesses (local cafes and yarn shops and artist spaces, etc) but they are businesses paying rent. It seems some credit is flowing again because they are finishing a building that was left open to the elements when the Great Credit Crunch arrived to end the party. That’s honestly pretty good progress.
Still think residential RE needs to grind downwards some more. Rents have gone back to pre-bubble levels (households compacted, driving up vacancies) but people simply can’t afford these houses at the incomes they have now. Wiser heads than mine predicted 2014 for the trough and I have to agree. Prices are down a lot… and every time sales pick up in Florida the Realtwhores try to raise prices and sales freeze up again. Keep it up, idiots.
Another Halocene Human
@New Yorker: Ding ding ding.
And the senseless loss in public payrolls due to unwillingness to tax the most fortunate (not to put too fine a point on it) is shades of 1936, to me.
Recall
@New Yorker: There’s a difference between not knowing and not caring.