On Thursday, somebody in Newt’s campaign said that Mississippi and Alabama were “must win” states for Newt, which prompted a whole bunch of speculation that Newt would drop out if (when) he loses them. The only surprise to me is that it took a whole day for Gingrich to contradict (and probably fire) the aide who said that.
Newt staying in to split the conservative vote with Santorum, and the campaign dragging on until June, is nothing but good news for Democrats. Romney is going to grind out a delegate win while suffering a few more defeats in bright red states. Only a series of unfortunate and unlikely events and some anti-establishment action by the guardians of the status quo, the superdelegates, could make Santorum the nominee, and that’s not going to happen.
We should all pitch in and buy something nice for Callista at Tiffany’s as a thank-you present–what do you recommend?
kindness
Does Tiffany’s have nice tin foil hats?
Xecky Gilchrist
We should all pitch in and buy something nice for Callista at Tiffany’s as a thank-you present
I doubt we could swing it. This blog only has, what – half a million readers?
Linda Featheringill
I’m not firing on all pistons today and so I have to ask:
You are saying that Newt staying in the race will help prevent a Santorum nomination?
Jay in Oregon
How about a nice note on Tiffany’s letterhead that says “Sorry, Callista, but you will never be Jackie Kennedy.”
mistermix
@Linda Featheringill: A bit, not that Santorum has much of a chance anyway.
piratedan
the name of a good divorce lawyer in anticipation of spouse #5?
gaz
and not a single person took me up on my bet that Romney would win the nom and lose the general.
I haz a sad. I could have used the money.
negative 1
How about working facial muscles?
Brian R.
Do they make something that reverses the effects of botox?
Michael
A couple polls suggets Newt has a real shot at winning both AL and MS, and is actually slightly favored over at 538 in AL
Soonergrunt
What’s the likelyhood of Newt’s candidacy being designed from the ground up to split the radical conservative vote in order to guarantee that Romney gets the nomination?
Santorum only lost to Romney by one percentage point (37% to 38%) in Ohio, while Gingrich took 15% of the total vote.
In Michigan, Romney took 409,120 votes to Santorum‘s 377,144 and Gingrich’s 65,002
I don’t think that as long as Sheldon Adelson has money to burn to support his fellow rich guy, Gingrich is going to drop out. He’s going to do what he’s told, and he’ll be happy about it because the personal expenses submitted against his campaign account will roll over Calista’s account at Tiffany’s a couple of times.
MattF
Oh, gosh… She’s got Noot, it’s hard to see where to proceed from there.
Waldo
Newt staying in helps Romney and hurts Santorum. To make it a closer race, and to ensure maximum turmoil, we need Newt to bail out asap.
Suffern ACE
Meh. I’m beginning to long for scrapping the primaries and bringing back the smoke filled room. I think we got better candidates when people weren’t able to select them. We also had a press corps with more time on its hands to cover things other than primary drama. Imagine, a world where Newt Gingrich and his campaign were no more relevant than Fred Karger’s. It sounds like a world that would be at least 7.2% improved.
Soonergrunt
@Brian R.: Yes. It’s the structural reinforcement for Newt’s desk.
Soonergrunt
@gaz: I also have never bet against the prospect that the sun would come up.
Quincy
Newt getting out would help us. At this point, I think Romney could beat Santorum even if it were head-to-head. But it would be much more difficult, and he’d have to pander to the rubes even harder for the next 3 months.
c u n d gulag
What about a book about a more successful trophy wife who ran for the Presidency?
Evita!
No wait – she died of cancer at 33.
And Callista saw 33 in the rearview mirror a long, long, time ago.
belle
there is one problem about dragging it out to June: the NC primary is May 8.
we also have a Constitutional Amendment on the ballot May 8 to ban not just same sex marriage, but regressively end domestic partnership laws. these laws protect city and state (and some other) workers in recognized relationships, in agreements with their employers. this is a big step backwards for NC.
if the GOP is still going full throated in May, it bodes ill for defeating the amendment, which is just now falling out of favor with most citizens, making our wildest hopes a possibility. a low GOP turnout would actually help us in defeating this ballot measure.
gaz
@Soonergrunt: Funny, when I used to regularly bet the Seahawks to lose there were no shortage of marks.
meh.
kindness
@negative 1:
botox.
Ben Franklin
@Suffern ACE:
To your point, someone on another thread said they wished more people would register and then vote. We could replace ballot boxes with dart boards, and achieve the same result.
Amir Khalid
I guess what this means is, Sheldon Adelson has committed to sponsoring Noot as long as Noot wants to stay in the race. While Noot does indeed need to win Mississippi and Alabama to have more than a theoretical chance, I think he can be safely ruled out as a serious contender. Noot wants to stay in just to stick it to Mitt. But Mr Adelson has no such animus against a candidate; and he’s assured of the eventual nominee being uncritically pro-Israel, whether it’s Mitt, Noot or Mr Frothy. So what’s his interest in this?
Hawes
Actually, I’d like Newt to drop out.
If it’s Romneybot vs. the Sweater Vest of the Blessed Virgin, then Romney will have to take ridiculous positions on social issues (mandatory chastity belts in middle school!) while moving right on economic issues to fight off the SVoBV’s economic “populism”.
Omnes Omnibus
We could get something monogrammed.
Jeff
I’m for Newt bailing myself. Staying in only keeps Santorum from getting enough delegates himself to stop Romney from clinching out right. If this clusterf$%k goes all the way to the convention with Mitt having to grovel before the Teahadis
that can only be a bucket full of WIN for Obama.
MattF
@Amir Khalid: It’s the long con– Noot’s a grifter, Sheldon is his terrific, wonderful, brand-new, super-duper best friend.
patrick II
@Amir Khalid:
I wonder if Adelson is anti-Santorum, since Santorum is the only one with any chance to take Mitt, but that can only happen (even though very unlikely) if Newt drops out.
Soonergrunt
@Amir Khalid: By keeping Newtie in the race, he accomplishes a couple of different things. While the Republicans are falling all over themselves for the right to drop to their knees in front of Netanyahu, he has a couple of other concerns.
For Adelson, like most American Zionists, there’s nothing he wouldn’t do for Israel except actually live there. So once he gets his Likud-cocksucker, he also has to live with the guy here, and most Jews here are socially liberal. The LAST thing he wants is a conservative Catholic or Baptist power structure that will make daily life here absolutely miserable. So he keeps Noot in the race, which drives Mitt to the right but prevents Rih from actually having a realistic chance at doing anything threatening. Mitt will reliably run back towards the center once he gets the nomination, which is something that neither Gingrich nor Santorum can do.
dmsilev
@Amir Khalid: Adelson supposedly hates Santorum, so it’s one way to stick it to Frothy.
Curious in South Carolina
Something for Callista? I think she has everything she needs. I’d like to know the secret to that hair do.
Other than that, I just pray Obama wins. These candidates are disasters.
maya
A 24 carat aspirin.
smintheus
@mistermix: And you’re afraid of a Santorum nomination? More than Romney?
I see virtually no chance of Santorum winning this year. But he’s likely to be a strong contender in 4 years, when the political pendulum traditionally will be swinging back toward the Republicans after 8 years of Dem presidency. That would be a really frightening prospect.
RalfW
Republican South Carolina Lt. Gov. Ken Ard is not in it for the duration.
JPL
No new Newts… In order to hurt Romney, he has to drop out.
Soonergrunt
@Curious in South Carolina:
Epoxy resin?
Jennifer
Eh…I wouldn’t assume for a minute that Santorum will win over Gingrich in either Alabama or Mississippi.
Sure, Santorum’s a crazy theocrat, which will play well in both states. But any guy who’s not willing to let the whole word “blacks” come out of his mouth while dog-whistling doesn’t stand a chance in either state against a guy who’s more than willing to go full-out George Wallace. There’s a reason why Newt won South Carolina, and it’s the same reason that makes him likely to win both Mississippi and Alabama: voters in those states are less concerned with who can actually win in November than they are with nominating whoever is most likely to call the president a ni**er to his face. Newt’s got that sewed up.
JPL
Anybody else hoping that Romney slips and calls grits, polenta?
Ron
Not sure why this is better for democrats than an out and out battle for the nomination between Dog on Car and Man on Dog.
cmorenc
@Soonergrunt:
That may in fact be billionaire Sheldon Adelson’s real game in his continued financial support of Newt’s candidacy after Florida. While there’s no doubt his true original preference was for Newt, the fact that Adelson openly pledged to support the eventual nominee is a hint that he’s playing a dual game here, knowing that a million bucks spent keeping Newt in the race to dilute Santorum’s share of the anybody-but-Romney vote is just as valuable (or more so) to Romney as that amount spent directly on behalf of Romney, given that money isn’t the resource Romney’s short of. I’ll bet there have been back-room unofficial discussions between Adelson and the Romney campaign wink wink nod nod approvingly acknowledging this dynamic.
Of course, the reason Newt himself is staying in the race is overwhelmingly to massage his own gigantic megalomaniac ego, and so he’s perfectly happy accepting his patron’s largesse, and is perfectly happy to ignore the true tactical impact of his staying in the race (which isn’t that he has any realistic chance of becoming POTUS, not even if Romney and Santorum suffered fatal illnesses and had to drop out of the race tomorrow, leaving Newt as the only candidate standing for the nomination).
RossInDetroit
Composite of human hair vacuum infused with vinyl ester and MEKP hardening agent. Autoclave cured. Will stop a bullet.
Jay C
@Soonergrunt:
Naah, not enough structural stability – some sort of carbon-fiber maybe?
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
I’m with Omnes that something monogrammed is the idea gift for the current Mrs. Gingrich. But I’m mean that way.
amk
If the frigging www. is what screwing up this site, how about fucking removing it from the threads ?
Jeff
@Soonergrunt: You say that Mitt will run to the center. I think the better term is “try to run to the center” as he will have basketloads of crazy statements to have to deny, and Teahadists to keep jizzed up about his candidacy. He will have a much harder time seeming semi reasonable after this primary season.
New Yorker
What makes you think Newt will still be married to her by the time of the GOP convention?
Soonergrunt
@Jay C: That’s what the hair fibers are for.
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): Get it with monograms for one of the previous Mrs. Gingrichs with a note that we lost count and had to guess.
@Jeff: Well, he’ll govern from the center right, or at least that’s what he keeps telling himself.
Schlemizel
According to the official RNC count the slimy amphibian has more delegates (107) than ol frothy (93).
The nom still ends up going to the only clown in the car with an actual team of people doing their job – Willard – but these other 3 bozos are doing a great job of making sure we have another 4 years of Obama. If there is a pasta in heaven this seltzer & slapstick clown show will continue well into summer, cause tension & disorder at the convention and set the GOP up for total meltdown in 2016 that will demolish them as a national party for 2 generations.
tominwv
How about a Rhinestone encrusted vaginal probe case.
Steve in DC
I wouldn’t count Santorum out. A few things.
Romney is a horrible candidate. Yes the right loves him, the establishment right and the bankers, the money men. Here is the thing though, Obama is already Wall Streets man in Washington. Granted, Romney would be more of Wall Street’s guy, but still, it’s a matter of degree.
Romney vs Obama is a contest between two Wall Street and finance tools that went to Harvard and who are backed by Wall Street and passed a similar healthcare program. Both are at core moderates and centrists. Both pandered to their base, and Obama ran to the center once elected.
In other words, it’s not really a fight over anything that matters to the right wing. How much right wing enthusiasm do you think that will generate? Other than skin color there isn’t much difference and I question how much that will matter. For every right winger that will run out to vote against the first black president a liberal will run out to defend the first black president.
Santorum though, that’s a fight. Because he’s fucking nuts. There is a huge gap between him and Obamney. We’ve been seeing that play out on the air since birth control. There is actually a distinction there, and the right loves to draw a contrast and thus a fight.
Romney vs Obama is pretty much two of the same. One just happens to be charasmatic and have fanatical fans to the point Paultards look calm, the other… has the charisma of a moldy egg salad sandwich, inspires nobody, and has a serious case of foot in mouth. This is a losing fight.
If they do nominate Romney, they are going to have to fight at the VP level. And Biden is one heck of a VP. He connects to working people and is actually for them. He’s also charismatic as all hell. But, he’s gaffe prone.
The Republicans can either nominate Romney, and try to beat a healthcare passing, moderate centrist, Harvard educated, Wall Street codling thrall with well… the same, but less charismatic. And then try to have a VP that will beat Biden with working class whites…… crickets. Or they can pick a fight at the top of the ticket and focus there.
I wouldn’t consider this over for Santorum yet.
Marc
@belle:
Turnout has actually been low in the Republican primaries – the ultra-negative campaign has actually turned them off from voting. So the best chance for low turnout may be an extremely dirty republican primary campaign.
Robert Sneddon
@Soonergrunt: The “secret” is money. The Gingriches were at an event a few months back and the pictures of the backstage parking lot showed a bus-sized mobile beauty parlour and hair salon. It doesn’t actually belong to them, it’s the sort of unit that is hired by pols and celebs when they’re making appearances to allow them to touch up their makeup or restyle their hair just before they appear on stage to face their public and the press cameras.
Steve in DC
@Marc
Doesn’t matter. Watch Santorum get nominated. Every pastor in the US is going to be screaming for them to get out and vote. Also voter supression of Democrats.
Brachiator
@Soonergrunt:
This has been noted before, by Rachel Maddow and others.
And there is this from a Wall St Journal Story
The weird thing is that this attempt to block Santorum may not even be necessary. Santorum is doing a good job of blocking himself. A recent Maddow show detailed how Santorum’s organization is so poor that he has failed to file for a full slate of delegates in a number of states, and is not even on the GOP ballot in DC.
So, Santorum is disorganized, Newt is being propped up by Superpac money. Romney hobbles along, but is building up an insurmontable lead in delegates. Seems like the whole point is to crown him, but to make sure that he brings an acceptable choice for VP on board, and does not stray from the fold with respect to the social issues that fires up evangelicals and other conservatives.
muddy
@a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q): I’m with Omnes that something monogrammed is the idea gift for the current Mrs. Gingrich. But I’m mean that way.
Soonergrunt
One of Charles Johnson’s commenters brings our attention to the Georgia legislature, that just passed a bill in the state house that would make removal of a dead fetus from a woman by any means other than C-section a crime under Georgia law if it is eventually signed into law.
Because, you know, what works for cows and pigs is exactly what works for humans.
Steve in DC
@soonergrunt
Why bother to get on the ballot in DC, you ever lived here? In DC the D always wins. And on the local level, the same people that ran in the civil rights era can’t be kicked out no matter what due to race issues. See mayor Barry.
There is no point in running as a Republican here. And in several wards, no point in running if you’re not black at the local level.
Also religious issues don’t fly. With the amount of people below the poverty level and the horrible gun violence a message of “eat your peas and don’t fuck, life gets better” just doesn’t work. While you do need the local pastors, that sort of “bible is real” crap doesn’t work.
Conservatives here are well, Fenty. Pretty much like most upper class social liberals. That’s about as right as you get, and even he ran on the Democratic ticket.
Chyron HR
@Steve in DC:
You should see if FactCheck.org has any internships open. You’d be a great fit there.
NobodySpecial
I don’t know, what’s the proper gift for third divorces?
Schlemizel
OT – I just learned that Peter Bergman has died of complications from leukemia. A lot of humor has left this Earth, we’ll have to make do with what he left behind.
http://firesigntheatre.com/media/media.php?member=Bergman
Omnes Omnibus
@NobodySpecial: Pr0n.
Ruckus
A bag of flaming dog shit on the front porch?
Steve in DC
@Chyron
cut it with the crap. Obama passed Romneycare. Do you really think he can ARGUE against it on the national stage, he can’t.
Which was my point.
Or feel free to keep arguing and making snarky remarks.
Steve
@Soonergrunt: I just read the bill and I don’t see what it has to do with stillborn fetuses. Someone will have to walk me through that argument.
Brachiator
@Steve in DC:
This is a powerfully packed bunch of reductionism here. About the most nonsensical that I’ve seen on Balloon Juice in a while. Congratulations.
And I love this stuff about Obama “running for the center.” Are you one of those progressives who ignored everything that Obama actually said, and convinced yourself that he was going to satisfy your feverish dreams?
Only problem is that Santorum still doesn’t have an effective campaign on the ground, is severely behind in delegates, and strangely is unable to get his act together. Aside from stirring up some of the faithful, I have no idea why he is still in the race. And on Thursday, Maddow noted an interesting tidbit: for all his spouting of religious devotion, Santorum is not carrying Catholics in any state. His appeal is to the ignorant religious fringe.
@Marc:
On one of her recent shows, Thursday, I think, Rachel Maddow noted that voting was up in at least one state, and that Mitt is strongly bringing out affluent voters.
I’ve seen pundits talk about the impact of negative campaigning. I haven’t seen this acknowledged by voters.
Steve in DC
@Brachiator
No I’m a realist. And politics does work on reduction. Most people aren’t that politically aware and don’t deal in complexity.
mistermix
A lot of you are saying that if Newt got out Santorum would be better off. I used to think that but now I’m thinking that the more this looks like a race to the media, the more they’ll be distracted and won’t recognize that nobody but Romney can win it, so it will drag on.
In other words, once you accept that Newt and Rick don’t have a chance, separately or together, you want both of them in there pooping on Romney.
Maxwel
Callista’s gift: How about a large black dildo.
Brachiator
@Steve in DC:
You don’t seem to be particularly aware politically (Romney the same as Obama, etc.), nor do you deal in complexity. So, what is your point?
@mistermix:
Romney has more delegates than all the other candidates combined, so it is not really that much of a race in the long run.
But it is not about the media. People like Adelson do not want Santorum to win big. Newt and Mitts are more reliable pro Israeli hard liners than a nutcase Catholic like Santorum, or at least this is Adelson’s thinking.
Also, the GOP probably thinks it better to give social conservatives a false hope now, and reel them in for November than to blow them off in the primaries and make it nothing but Mitt.
Mnemosyne
@Steve in DC:
I’m confused by your pronouns. Are you saying that you expect Obama to argue against Obamacare, his signature legislation, during this campaign? Why on earth are you expecting that?
If you’re saying that Romney will not be able to argue against Obamacare, you’re right, but he’s going to give it the old college try anyway. So far, his argument has been the lame and nonsensical “states can make reforms, but the federal government can’t.”
ETA: To be clear, I’m fully expecting Obama’s position to be, “The healthcare reforms I made are terrific, they’ve already helped millions of Americans, and I want to make even more changes to make healthcare cheaper and more accessible.” I’m not sure what you expect his position to be.
JPL
@Mnemosyne: He’s gonna go a full flip flop and declare the MA experiment a total failure. God has forgiven him for his error and so should the electorate.
eyelessgame
I just caught up on Nate Silver – he makes the fairly compelling case that Romney would have more delegates right now if Gingrich had dropped out before Iowa… making two admittedly questionable assumptions:
1) that Gingrich voters would do what they tell pollsters they’d do: break about 50/30/20 for Santorum/Romney/Paul;
2) discounting the slightly increased relative values for Santorum would have on his perceived “momentum”.
I think #2 makes the conclusion dubious – nevertheless, Silver is, as always, worth reading.
eyelessgame
There’s also the danger that, if Gingrich were not in the race, Santorum would be seen as the 2012 equivalent of Huckabee – lone quixotic representative of the fanatical religious right – and there’d be more pressure for him to drop out so the Party could unite behind the guy who’s obviously going to be the standard bearer.
But since there are two, roughly at parity, neither one faces an overwhelming pressure to drop out.
JPL
Santorum won the Kansas caucus.
JPL
Santorum won the Kansas caucus.
El Cid
“I do this and you give me cash”
Brachiator
@JPL:
Interesting.
Kansas Republicans going Bigtime for teh Krazy.
Rome Again
I just knew Newt had it in him. I expected nothing less. He is going to take a VERY HARD fall. :P