Frank Rich at NYMag‘s Daily Intel takes a victory lap dancing over some bruised egos:
Despite Santorum’s victories, the consensus the morning after seems to be that nothing has really changed. So does it matter what happened in Alabama and Mississippi?
Let’s not forget American Samoa, where Romney romped, taking all nine delegates. (Never mind that its inhabitants — a disproportionate number of them Mormons, by the way — cannot vote in an actual presidential election.) But anyhow: No, Alabama and Mississippi didn’t matter, not even to Newt, who, despite losing both his “must-win” Southern states, has decided to ignore the verdict and soldier on. Although perhaps on an austerity budget: Callista was conspicuously bling-free during her husband’s “victory” oration.
__
So Romney will still be the nominee, although he might not quite get to 1,144 delegates?
So it seems. But look, he is making real progress. It used to be that he couldn’t break the 25 percent mark in his own party. Now he often breaks 30. He’s gone from three-quarters of the GOP wanting anyone but Mitt, to only two-thirds of the GOP feeling that way. That’s the kind of love that a bottomless campaign war-chest can buy for you. Presumably it will also purchase any stray delegates still needed as the convention approaches.
__
But aren’t skeptical Republicans warming to Mitt at last?
They are certainly coming up with ever more inventive rationales of how he is the right man at the right time. The latest Republican meme has it that Americans, in reaction to Obama, crave the dullest white guy they can find…
__
Nate Silver, the Times poll authority, gave Santorum a 9 percent chance of winning Alabama and a 2 percent chance of winning Mississippi. Santorum won both. Why did he outperform the polls so drastically?
Silver also wrote on primary day that a double Santorum win was the “least likely permutation” once the votes were counted. To quote a departed candidate from the race, “Oops!” In the same vein, Politico ran a primary-day piece titled “Mitt Romney could seal deal in Dixie,” noting that he was “the only candidate who has a sophisticated operation on the ground in the two states.” This month-after-month overestimation of Mitt’s ability to close the deal only confirms that he is the Tom Dewey of this campaign cycle, the constant beneficiary of “Dewey Beats Truman” headlines even if, in this case, the Truman in question is Santorum…
Apart from reaffirming the wisdom of the old gambling adage, “Crazy has no form“, what’s on the agenda for an unusually-clement-across-most-of-the-US midweek evening?
dollared
Wow. Nate got it wrong? Because people were lying to the pollsters. They need to hire white pollsters with Southern accents.
lamh35
Has Mitt Romney lost FOXNews? If FOXNews won’t even go through the trouble of making up shit just to make their rebpu candidates feel special, what does that say about Romney?
Mitt Romney’s Terrible Fox News Interview
lamh35
@dollared: yeah, they are gonna have to come up with a name for the “effect” that people lying about not voting for a candidate because of their religion.
The “Joseph Smith” effect or something like that?
frogspawn
Totally OT, before we get to 297 comments, I found the mobile/regular site problem I had with Firefox and NoScript went away when I allowed blogads.com in NoScript.
Just my $.02
beltane
@dollared: @dollared: Mitt Romney appears to have been a victim of the Bradley Effect. Yes, I know the Bradley Effect wasn’t real but the Romney Effect sure is.
Why did anyone think a Mormon was going to win a Republican primary in Bigotland? Are our pundits all on drugs these days?
Comrade Javamanphil
Nate would be the first to tell you that his success relies on as much data as possible. He’s bound to miss some of these smaller states where not much polling occurs.
muddy
But Catholicism is a cult! That’s what the Southern Baptists told me. Any port in a storm I guess.
RareSanity
To everyone complaining about only being able to get the mobile site:
Please, for the love of whoever the hell Pete is and his sake, click on the link below, and stop all of the FYWP comments!
https://balloon-juice.com/2012/03/14/wednesday-evening-open-thread-pollsters-agree-oopsie/?wpmp_switcher=desktop
frogspawn
So did Santorum win the Commonwealth of the North Marianas?
GregB
I offer up:
The lying to pollsters rightwing evangelical Christo-fascist douche-nozzle effect.
lamh35
wow the Miss America defense, Rush ain’t even trying anymore is he?
Referring to “NAGs,” Limbaugh Asks: “How Can I Be Anti-Woman? I Even Judged The Miss America Pageant”
Schlemizel
I bumped into samara morganin a thread earlier today & I think I learned something. Generally I just ignored it but for some reason today when it went into its billionth whine about ED I asked her why she couldn’t let that go & actually tried to get some information out of it. It never answered my questions or offer any thoughtful comment but went to an immediate fuck you. I didn’t rise to the bait & again tried to get to the basic problem (seems it has been banned at TNC too & tries to pretend it got no warning – anyone who reads TNC knows either it is not being honest or it was way over the line.)
Anyway, it responded by saying “This will piss you off” and then went after my sons service in Afghanistan!!! We know that he was fucked over by the government so that is not a place to start a fight with me either. I pretty much gave up & it came back with more vitriol and attacks.
boils down to samara morgan does not want debate, it wants a fight, it wants to derail conversations with hate & vile bilge. It goes back in my ignore queue, wonder what it would do if we all just ignored it.
Linda Featheringill
The idea of a Santorum nomination scares me. It’s not even funny. He is just too, too dangerous.
I do not think that Mr. Santorum is an evil person. But I suspect that he hasn’t thought this through and doesn’t realize how his passionate approach to religion could be manipulated for pure evil.
Also, I suspect he might be as easily “managed” as W was, or maybe even more so.
No, no, no to Santorum!
Roger Moore
@muddy:
Yeah, but apparently most Republican voters don’t know Santorum is Catholic. I’m guessing a large fraction of the ones who do know are Catholics themselves and unlikely to hold it against him. I guess the main reason the voters don’t know that is Romney is afraid to start religious smears for fear of the inevitable and much worse backlash.
SiubhanDuinne
Only because this is an open thread: Really personal, but March 14 is a doubly memorable anniversary for me, and an occasion for genuine gratitude. Nineteen years ago today (in the midst of one of the worst blizzards Atlanta has ever seen thankyouverymuch) I had a mild heart attack. Eight years to the day later, 11 years ago today, I narrowly averted another (major) heart attack by the simple expedient of undergoing quadruple coronary bypass surgery. Yes, I have a scar that runs from my guggle to my zatch, but I’m alive and tolerably healthy. And very, very thankful.
Oh, almost forget: not at all coincidentally, it’s also 19 years to the day since I smoked a cigarette. Or, really, anything.
dogwood
@Schlemizel:
I don’t know. Some people just have this tape in their head that’s on a continuous loop. There’s really nothing you can do about it.
Linda Featheringill
@lamh35:
LOL!
But seriously, folks, I rest my case.
muddy
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m glad you’re still here! Happy anniversaries.
EvolutionaryDesign
@Schlemizel: I believe “it” has an insane need to be the only correct entity, period. They have also claimed to be autistic in one of the threads I was lurking on a while back, FWIW.
GregB
Old stumble-tongued Mitt said that his losses in Alabama and Mississippi didn’t matter because he’s won in the states “that count”.
Another thumb in the eye for the wingnut base.
Linda Featheringill
@Roger Moore:
Two-thirds of southern Republicans do not know that Santorum is Catholic?
muddy
@Schlemizel: It’s disgusting that it brought your son into it. I answered it one time and that is my limit. I would wish everyone else felt the same, but some find amusement in the useless interchange I think.
magurakurin
@Schlemizel:
uh, we knew that already?
@Linda Featheringill:
I’m going with he actually is evil. And yes he scares me, too. I don’t think he would win, but I don’t want his name on the ballot. No way.
David Koch
http://www.people-press.org/2012/03/14/romney-leads-gop-contest-trails-in-matchup-with-obama/?src=prc-headline
This large lead confirms other polls released this week by Reuters, PPP, and Gallup. See, I told ya the NYT poll was crap, manufactured to create the appearance of a horse race.
dogwood
I see Sully’s at the White House tonight for the state dinner. I hope he gets to chat up the POTUS about TAX REFORM.
lamh35
Ok,
so I was sitting watching the arrivals for the State Dinner, cause I was bored waiting for my primetime shows to come on and then CSPAN cut off the arrivals feed and I went back to reading the blogs.
Well low and behold, my husband (pretend) Idris Elba (who I’m currently Google, twitter and Facebook stalking) was a guest at the state dinner.
So from what I understand Idris was one of the last guest there. CSPAN cut coverage but CNN and the WH (which I was NOT watching) I believe continued and Idris Elba was indeed in attendance and he even stopped to talk a little.
DAMN.DAMN.DAMN.YOU.C-SPAN!!!!!
Uhm what is the stalker supposed to do when the stalkee is not being followed by media…geez.
Everett Springs
@RareSanity: We’ve all seen the “?wpmp_switcher=desktop” link at the bottom of BJ for a while now.
The thing is, the fucking link DOESN’T WORK!
It’s malformed. It points to some IP address which is unreachable by Internet users.
I’ve written to John twice about this: no answer.
I dropped a note to Doug after I hit up one of his posts and got this behavior: no answer.
I posted in the comments of another thread where I ran into this problem: no response.
Someone behind the scenes at BJ has to take a look at why
a) the site fails to automatically AND CORRECTLY detect mobile users and display the mobile site ONLY FOR THEM
b) why the “?wpmp_switcher=desktop” link is incorrectly written and this fails to work for users
I’ve asked so many times I’ve given up.
I guess there’s no point in continuing to try to read BJ since I can’t fucking read it even when I try.
SiubhanDuinne
@Schlemizel:
My two cents, Samara can be bright, engaging, and even kind of witty when she is — well, I guess when she takes her meds when she’s supposed to. But most of the time she seems to glory in being a Bad Girl, a Contrarian, an offensive Name-Caller. She seems to think being banned (or at least given time-outs) is something wonderful and worthy of gold stars. I admit there is something sickly compelling about her. I mostly try not to engage but it’s hard, lord, it is HARD. Probably says a lot more about me than about her.
SiubhanDuinne
@muddy:
Thanks!!
Mike E
OT Meanwhile, NC Gov Bev Perdue visits a frack in PA and decides to let the frackers come in afterall… she’s not gonna run for reelection, so this is her final F.U. to the people she “cares” about. Shit.
muddy
I’m watching George Harrison: Living in the Material World on HBO, I really miss him.
David Koch
@dogwood: Maddow was there for lunch. http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/04xE12R4YKdHo/610x.jpg
The White House is just crawling with teh gay.
PurpleGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: Yes, Happy Anniversaries. It’s nice to hear that you survived those heart attacks and had the surgery. (I like your postings.)
A friend had tried to stop smoking several times through various plans, with no success. Last spring she had a heart attack and has stopped smoking cold.
bemused
@Linda Featheringill:
I dunno if it’s evil or a mental illness but Santorumites would lecture God on not being sufficiently pure.
dogwood
@lamh35:
He’s my favorite too. I just finished watching 4 new episode of Luther on Netflix streaming. I also noticed some of the Downton cast, and, of course Damien Lewis.
eemom
So since it’s an open thread, can I tell how I got to go the Supreme Court today with other alums of HCHS in NYC for a meeting with Justice Kagan??
She is SO awesome.
Roger Moore
@Linda Featheringill:
Sure. Who’s going to make a political issue of it? Santorum sure isn’t interested in drawing attention to his Catholicism, only the vile beliefs his version of Catholicism teaches him that happen to align with Evangelical protestantism. Gingrich may be an idiot and a hypocrite, but even he’s smart enough not to go totally anti-Catholic. Romney doesn’t want to talk about it because it would make his Mormonism fair game. The only one who might make it an issue is Paul, and he’s more interested in gathering as much grift as possible than spending it on unnecessary attack ads.
dogwood
@David Koch:
Lunch was at the State Department, hosted by Hillary. Nonetheless, it must drive Chris Matthews crazy that he never gets an invite to anything.
MikeJ
@Roger Moore:
Especialy since he converted and is now a Catholic himself.
muddy
@eemom: You’re the lucks!
Linnaeus
Well, that does it for the scotch.
Linda Featheringill
@eemom:
Wow!
David Koch
@lamh35:Clooney was also in attendance.
Tara the Antisocial Social Worker
Was it really necessary to put “Frank Rich” and “lap dancing” in the same sentence?
Jager
Where is Sam Kinison when you really need him?
General Stuck (Bravo Nope Zero)
@eemom:
Awesome!! now I’m jealous.
Southern Beale
I called a rich 1%er an asshole on my blog and he came over to my place to push for Bowles-Simpson in the comments. I thought people might be amused.
mdblanche
@GregB: Oooh… how can Romney say that? Why, he hasn’t won any states at all lately. Just those darn furrin islands like American Samoa and Hawaii that we let vote in our primaries for some reason.
@David Koch: Somehow the Kaplan Daily News let this slip through: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/that-big-obama-poll-drop-it-never-happened/2012/03/14/gIQANCR4BS_blog.html?tid=pm_opinions_pop
I’m sure they intended it to stay confined to a quiet room, but earlier this evening it was their most viewed editorial.
andy
@muddy: As they say, at least Catholics are People of the Book.
That is, they would say that if they were a little more… sophisticated?
mai name
Oooohh, I can’t decide who i want for the Repub nominee…..Santorum, the way out wingnut whackjob or Romney – gaffe machine extraodinaire? I used to think Ron Paul was the libertarian whackaloon but he looks like Olympia Snowe compared to his competition.
David Koch
@eemom: Digya get an autograph or atleast a photo?
lamh35
@David Koch: Oh yeah, I saw Clooney. They showed his arrival, but there is a special place in my heart for Idris Elba. I like my men more chocolate than vanilla, but I sure wouldn’t push Clooney outa my bed…lol
eemom
@mdblanche:
heh heh. A lot of people look really stoopid today, including the eminently “reasonable” Jonathan Chait who was touting his brilliant explanation for the “drop” in Obama’s poll numbers late yesterday.
Of course, no one looks quite as stoopid as Teh Kraplan itself, with its ZOMG now the republicans are competitive! front page headline.
You know what is wrong with these people — all of them, including that despicable twat of a pseudo-Greek Huffington who was posted about earlier? They’re fucking dying over the fact that this in NOT, in fact, gonna be a horse race.
muddy
@andy: So are Jews and Muslims.
Roger Moore
@Jager:
Dead. HTH.
D. Cloyce Smith
Santorum is an anagram for “So Truman.” So the Dewey v. Truman comparison makes perfect sense. Or something.
muddy
@lamh35: Ooh, Idris Elba. Love the combo of accent and looks. Have you seen “Luther”?
eemom
@David Koch:
They took some group photos — we weren’t allowed to take our own pix. Unfortunately I got shoved in the back by a gang of swift-footed elderly ladies.
Speaking of, there this one dear old lady from the class of 1939 — which makes her about 91 — who, when the Justice started to take questions, popped right out with one about Scalia and gay marriage. Of course, the Justice wouldn’t answer it — but it was still pretty cool.
patrick II
@lamh35:
I’m currently watching “Luther” on streaming Netflix. I cannot get used to Stringer Bell speaking with a British accent.
Roger Moore
@MikeJ:
That was rather the point. Of the remaining Republican candidates, only one is a Protestant, and he’s really more a grifter than a serious candidate. None of the non-Protestants wants to throw mud on the religion issue because they know damn well they’ll wind up splattering themselves.
lamh35
@dogwood: hmm, so yeah, a good friend sent me this link…enjoy.
Idris Elba attends State Dinner Honoring David Cameron
jwb
@mai name: Romney all the way. I think he’ll make the down ticket races much easier to win. On the other hand, Santorum would be far more entertaining, and the the possibility of a Goldwater-level defeat would be in the cards, but if he actually won he’d make us all nostalgic for the good old days of W.
SiubhanDuinne
@PurpleGirl:
It’s a fairly drastic technique, but it works.
TooManyJens
Does anyone else here live in IL-13? I’m trying to figure out who I’m going to vote for the in the Congressional primary. The impressions I get of the candidates are that Goetten is kind of a generic centrist Dem, and Gill is a firebagger. My policy preferences are almost certainly closer to Gill, but he’s already lost three times (albeit before redistricting landed him in a bluer district), and he’s one of those Democrats who likes to shit on Democrats, which leads me to doubt that he will be any kind of effective advocate. It’s not a choice I’m crazy about. Any thoughts?
PurpleGirl
@Southern Beale: Great answers to the asshole, SoBe. {clapping……}
lamh35
@muddy: @patrick II:
yep, I’ve seen Luthor. I actually knew he was British before I knew him from American movies.
Tom Q
@eemom: Andrew Sullivan linked to a USNews story that leaped to the conclusion that this election would now be between a wildly unpopular president and a set of incompetent opposition-ites (well, they got the second part right). The writer said we’d have to go back to the Millard Fillmore era to find a comparably horrific match-up.
You’d think he’d have waited for just one more poll to confirm this view. Lucky for him, when Obama’s numbers sail into the 50s later this year, and he wins going away, no one will remember this idiotic piece was even written.
jwb
@Tom Q: The press is really desperate for an angle at the moment, because they see the definitely possibility of this election being an utter blowout. On the other hand, I’m not totally discounting the $2+ billion that the SuperPacs will likely drop this summer and fall, nor the fact that the press will work as hard as they can to make the race close.
samara morgan
Mormon Bradley effect.
every time i say that to Nate, he deletes my comment.
its not PC and horserace enough i guess.
;)
SiubhanDuinne
@Tom Q:
But let’s save it anyhow so we can haul it out and point and mock Sully for the next four years.
lamh35
Still speaking of the State Dinner, I may have missed them during GWB’s administration, but I don’t remember there being so many same-sex couples as part of the arrivals. But in what appears to be an Obama WH tradition: Who’s at the head table for the White House state dinner for Britain?
Chris
@Schlemizel:
Have said before and will say again that she’s by far the most compelling argument for why this blog needs a permanent banhammer. The Powers That Be beg to differ, and hey, it ain’t my blog. But that’s still my opinion.
Chris
@Roger Moore:
Is that because their “religious” issues are dogwhistles for racial ones? Santorum’s white and speaks their language, therefore he must be One Of Them…
andy
@muddy: And they will never think it out that far either…
Spaghetti Lee
@TooManyJens:
Is Biggert still going to running in the 13th, or is she in a different district now? Speaking as a fellow suburban Illinoisan, (Dupage, in Walsh’s district come Election Day), I’d say given the overall lack of success Dems have had in that area, go with the safer choice. Either one would be better than Biggert or some non-incumbent GOPer, I’m assuming.
I’m having a similar problem deciding between Krishnamoorthi and Duckworth in the 8th District. I’m leaning towards Duckworth because she almost beat Roskam in ’06, and the second time around she’ll probably be even more prepared.
jwb
@samara morgan: Only problem with your theory is that it presumes that the the polled would be embarrassed to say that they are not voting for Romney. Romney has given plenty of non-Mormon reasons to not vote for him, so I don’t buy it. I’d say it is far more likely that voters are embarrassed to admit that that they are voting for a doofus such as Santorum. I’d also say it is far more likely that Romney-leaning voters are unmotivated to go to the polls, whereas Santorum voters are highly motivated.
Chris
@GregB:
OH BURN
Up yours, Real America!
Mnemosyne
@lamh35:
If we’re going for British chocolate, I’m more of a Chiwetel Ejiofor girl, myself. There are occasional rumors that Idris Elba will be the next Dr. Who, but I think Ejiofor would be a better choice — he has more of a sense of comedy, IMO. I knew he was great when he stole Talk to Me from Don Cheadle (which was a follow-up to his previous theft of Serenity from Captain Tight Pants).
JoyfulA
@Southern Beale: Congratulations! He probably has a Google alert on his name.
AnneW
@TooManyJens:
I’m going for the generic Goetten. Neither one is perfect, but Gill is calling for term limits. Bah.
TooManyJens
@Mnemosyne: OMG, Lola from Kinky Boots for the Twelfth Doctor! ::swoons::
freelancer
@Mnemosyne:
I love that dude. He’s an awesome actor. I just couldn’t pronounce his name if you put a gun to my head.
lamh35
@Mnemosyne: loved him in Kinky Boots and Salt. He was also in Serenity right? But he’s too short for me.
Personally, I see Idris as more the James Bond type, if the PTB can get over his skin color, funny enough I would say that Idris Elba has a more multicultural appeal to a lot of women. I cannot tell you the number of women of different ages, races, nationalities who were all over Idris Elba at the Golden Globes and elswehere. He really has mass appeal.
I can see, Chiwetel as Dr. Who though. I would def watch it again.
dogwood
@Tom Q:
Presidential approval numbers continually fluctuate because they are a refection of the citizens view of their own lives and prospects as much as they are about how good of a job the president is perceived to be doing. People’s moods and perspectives are constantly in flux. What this president has going for him is a personal approval that is stellar and constant, which is probably a reflection of his consistency of persona and character. The MSM always ignores the personal approval number, but his republican challenger will ignore it at his own peril. When Sept. comes around and the president gets to run adds touting his accomplishments and challenging Mitt, I think the mushy middle who pay little attention until the end will decide that he has done a lot of good, and since they like him anyway, they’ll stick by him.
freelancer
@lamh35:
Correct, he played the Operative. One of Whedon’s bad guys with a heart of gold.
marcopolo
@Mnemosyne: IMHO Summer Glau stole Serenity from everyone else :)
TooManyJens
@Spaghetti Lee: No, Biggert’s not running in the 13th. The incumbent in the current 15th, Tim Johnson, is running against a couple of Rep challengers whose names I can’t remember. I really want to beat Johnson. No, that’s not as dirty as it sounds.
dogwood
@Chris:
I don’t know that there aren’t permanent bans. Has anyone seen Kola Noscopy lately?
LTMidnight
Thought the animal lovers might enjoy this:
http://m.examiner.com/inspirational-pets-in-orlando/stray-pit-bull-saves-a-woman-and-child-from-attacker
John O
I golfed today. Checked out of politics altogether (except for here, of course).
It was a blast. We’ve had some unseasonably warm weather here in the Chicago area, but it (and all the records we’re setting) doesn’t haven’t anything to do with climate change because Al Gore is fat.
Anyway, it doesn’t take that many quality golf shots to make for a good day. I had one.
eemom
@dogwood:
He’s been posting under the name R*wk Ch*wk recently — but maybe he got banned again, because my first attempt at this response got vanished when I spelled it out.
samara morgan
@Schlemizel:
i answered your questions.
i never said it was without warning, i have the emails from TNC saying why he banned me.
you can see them if you want, give me your email.
i never mention Kain unless someone brings him up, he posts here or gets linked.
Nate has deleted many of my comments on Mormon Bradley effect, but he hasnt banned me….. yet……
David Koch
Wow!
Yowza!
Lottsa beef cake served at tonight’s state dinner
Damian Lewis
Martin O’Malley
Damn liberals hording all the good looks.
muddy
Antici—pation
This gif reminds me of Tunch
http://animalsbeingdicks.com/page/2
lamh35
Um wow, can’t stand Santorum, but I tend to like to see the underdog at least step up an fight back at the bully even if they get beat down in the end, that’s bout the only reason I enjoy when Santorum beats Romney, it makes me happy to see Romney unhappy.
But Ricky just can’t stop from keeping his racist foot in his mouth. I mean the Mitt-bot has foot in the mouth disease too, but geez Santorum just oozes racist don’t he.
Ugh…Santorum To Puerto Rico: Want Statehood? Make English Main Language!
Well I guess he doesn’t care much bout winning Puerto Rico huh?
Ugh, dude’s a creep.
David Koch
See I told ya Obama is a secret Jew, he invited Hizzzhonor
muddy
@David Koch: I was surprised to find out Damien Lewis was British. I was mostly familiar from Band of Brothers. He was on Graham Norton the other night, he was really funny.
David Koch
Okay.
Here’s dream boat Idris Elba
and Kathleen Sebelius’ handsome son.
lamh35
@David Koch: is Damian Lewis British?
David Koch
For those who love nerds and Cary Grant.
nellcote
@Linda Featheringill:
Well, Santorum was the senate liason for Tom Delay’s K-Street Project.
But when do we get a poll asking if Rmoney is a Christian?
muddy
@lamh35: On imdb it says he even lived on Abbey Rd. as a child.
samara morgan
@Juicitariat en banc
..and i dont relly care if Kain gets to be the “culture” editor at the Atlantic. He knows just as much about culture as McArdle knows about economics.
but hes not going to do it as a frontpager on a blog where i can comment.
so ban me.
;)
marv
@D. Cloyce Smith:
I see what you’re doin’ there, Ice Cold Myths.
samara morgan
@Schlemizel: you know who else calls me “it”? My old GNXP blogmaster Razib Khan.
He doesnt like what i say either.
you both try to shut me up with adhom.
so boring.
eemom
@samara morgan:
Now that, child, is a blatant falsehood.
samara morgan
@jwb: they are ashamed to say that mormonism is a factor. there are plenty of logical reasons to not vote for him, but like white peopl being ashamed to admit they wont vote black, white christians are ashamed to admit to a pollster they wont vote mormon.
Mormon Bradley effect.
there will be a paper or two on it after Obama wins the election, trust me.
samara morgan
@eemom: im talking about EDK 2.0, since he tried to come back. you cant find a link where i wasnt replying to someone that brought him up. schlemeizel brought him up, didnt you schlem?
i admit, in the first go round i did threadjack a bit.
so sowwwy.
;)
jwb
@samara morgan: I still submit that they are ashamed to admit to voting for Santorum (and to a lesser extent Gingrich) rather than ashamed to admit that they are not voting for Romney.
jwb
@samara morgan: “i admit, in the first go round i did threadjack a bit.” a bit?
samara morgan
@Chris: and YOU dont like what i said about missionary democracy.
;)
portlander
On the agenda: reading through 470 pages of information regarding FBI’s program (Seizing Thunder) of surveillance of “anarchists” in Portland and Eugene in the early 2000’s:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/281947-seizing-thunder-combined.html#document/p50
It’s so far a quick read due to all the redaction. For a summary:
http://gawker.com/5892639/how-the-fbi-monitored-crusty-punks-anarchist-hangouts-and-an-organic-farmers-market-under-the-guise-of-combating-terrorism
samara morgan
@jwb: that could be a factor as well. also, you are right about enthusiasm.
well…….a lot. i relly had a hard time believing the juicers would fall for Kains bulshytt. but i knew him for a lot longer.
Chris
@portlander:
Really?
I see J. Edgar Hoover’s ghost is alive and well at the FBI. Don’t they have anything better to do? Actually, don’t answer that, whatever you have to say’s just going to depress me more.
dogwood
@samara morgan:
Maybe you’re right and maybe you’re wrong. I don’t think people here think you are necessarily off base. It’s just that you are so relentless in repeating the same thing over and over as if that in an of itself makes it true.
trollhattan
Has anything good ever come forth from the Reagan “library”?
http://www.sacbee.com/2012/03/14/4338106/gop-leader-obama-must-back-off.html#storylink=cpy
Calouste
@jwb:
No horse race, no $2 billion in SuperPac advertising money for the channels reporting on the horse race…
THE
@samara morgan:
You realize that meme only really works in American English don’t you?
We don’t use “fall” for “autumn”, much elsewhere in the English speaking world. It took me a long time to “get it”. I had to remember lots of old American movies and American songs.
Suffern ACE
@trollhattan: I missed the section about paying for it.
Left Coast Tom
@Everett Springs: You should try to get the attention of Cole’s mother. Past evidence suggests that this is the most effective way of getting technical issues (such as the infamous missing reply button) fixed.
dogwood
@Calouste:
This. If I were big buck super pac donors looking to help Romney out, I’d want to see my own polling data before I coughed up millions in cash. Right now with a slow but steady recovery, people still feeling anxious, and Republicans on the TV every day bashing the President, the Republicans should have a double digit lead. I’m old enough to remember the 1988 Democratic race that ended with Dukakis winning the nomination and jumping out to an 18 point lead over the essential incumbent HW. And we all know how that turned out.
normal liberal
@AnneW: I give Gill points for persistence, and it would be nice to have a non-lunatic doctor in the house. Better name recognition in the fall might help, as well.
The highly creepy Tim Johnson will still kick his ass, I fear, despite the redrawn district.
Rita R.
@lamh35:
What an idiot. Why did he bother to go campaign in Puerto Rico if he was going to say something so politically stupid. Maybe he just wanted a few days in the tropics. Not only don’t Puerto Ricans want to give up their language, a large percentage want to break with the U.S. altogether and be their own nation, never mind being a state. No matter where they stand though — state, independent nation or remain a commonwealth — they are all proud of their language and culture and Santorum’s statement won’t go over well.
jwb
@dogwood: The $2 billion is coming regardless, to minimize losses in the downticket races, if for no other reason.
Roger Moore
@Rita R.:
Because he’s a bold truth teller who calls ’em as he sees ’em even if it hurts his chances. Or at least that’s the way he sees it.
Suffern ACE
@Rita R.: It’s almost as if he were pandering to a different audience than the one in front of him. It’s like giving the “I’ve always liked brats” speech in North Carolina.
Chris
@Rita R.:
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’d done it just for the fun of saying “HEY, FUCK YOU!” to an entire population of nonwhite mostly-Democrats. Kind of like Palin’s speeches about Real vs Not-Real America, only much more explicit. Like I said – Republican base runs on hate. Guess he’s hoping a lot of the racist trash ate that up and will turn out for him, making up for whatever meager gains he might’ve gotten from Puerto Rico.
dogwood
@jwb:
You’re probably right, but I wonder how the public is going to react to all of this. I also wonder about the tactics each campaign will use. Romney is always on offense; he attacks first. He’s not particularly effective at it, but with lots of money and weak opponents, it’s kept him afloat. However, in the general, this plays into the President’s strength. Obama is a great counterpuncher; it fits his natural instincts and talents. It’ll be interesting anyway.
Suffern ACE
@Chris: He needs every delegate he can get. I haven’t watched the video. Was this a poor response to a question, or did he just start yammering unprompted?
J.D. Rhoades
@Mike E:
God damn it. This is MY FUCKING COUNTY she’s selling out. Those fucking wells are going to be next door to me.
I’ve had no use for this useless hack since she sold out the justice system to the fucking Rethuglicans in the fucking legislature in the past two sessions, and I have even less for her now.
Better Democrats, please, for the love of God.
Rita R.
@Roger Moore:
True. The sanctimony just drips off of him. Ricky keeps saying that the government (read, Obama) looks down on Americans and thinks they can’t manage their lives and wants to tell them what to do and he just wants to return the power to the people. In reality, though, he wants to be the one telling Americans — and Puerto Ricans too, apparently — how to run their lives, and in a far more personal and intrusive way than even the straw man Obama he’s created in his head would ever dream of doing. But Santorum’s way is the right one, because God and the ghosts of the Founding Fathers told him so and made him their very special representative to the world, if only we’re worthy enough to receive him. Opus Dei freak.
Rita R.
@Suffern ACE:
Which is why I guessed he just wanted a short tropical vacay with the wife. Otherwise why not just stay and pander in Louisiana where they’ll eat that crap up.
samara morgan
@dogwood: i always give stats.
it does piss me off when the BJ Old Harpy Patrol starts in scolding me because its not PC to say Mitt is mormon.
you are right, i shouldnt let it bother me.
;)
Suffern ACE
@Rita R.: At the same time, it’s not as if Puerto Ricans haven’t heard this from Republicans before. That is one of the officially sanctioned reasons to oppose statehood. The other is that there are too many poor people there. (Or something like that. The citizenry and the economy relies on “transfer payments.”) Neither comes off well when you are actually in the company of Puerto Ricans, but that is the position. (If they’d just say “because they vote for the wrong party” they’d be honest.)
Roger Moore
@Suffern ACE:
I think there’s a certain amount of honesty about the rest of that stuff, too. The Republicans don’t like Puerto Rico because it’s full of poor brown people who don’t speak English and have the poor taste to be American citizens anyway. The part about voting for the other party is a result of Republican hate-the-other politics, not the cause.
Rita R.
@Suffern ACE:
I’m sure they have, but it kinda takes cojones though — excuse me, “balls” in Rick Santorum’s America — to say to their faces that their language isn’t good enough while at the same time asking for their votes.
Mike E
@J.D. Rhoades:
I know…I’ve been making phone calls about this abomination for a month and now I have to double back. Tell everybody you know to call up her office and tell her, if she sells out the people’s health and drinking water for a quick buck, she’ll truly earn those 30 pieces that she’s getting from those frackers. What a tool.
Everett Springs
@Left Coast Tom: Thanks for the good idea.
Is she on Twitter? Does anyone have her email? ;)
SpaceSquid
Grrrr. Someone isn’t wrong because the least likely permutation actually came true. I’m not wrong to declare snake eyes unlikely even if I then go on to roll them.
Now, if Nate’s process is wrong, that’s something different. But sniping at the guy for failing to predict the occasional freak result is silly.
samara morgan
@Schlemizel: chu kno……you have my email.
i gave it to you when you said your son might want to discuss the Quran.
and you are the threadjacker here.
im checking this thread for a reply…nothin’.
i just wanted to talk about Nate’s whiff and possible mormon bradley effect and you’re the one that is bringing up how awful i am.
balls in your court. id be glad to cc you TNC’s mails.
samara morgan
@dogwood: Nate wont actually say the words “mormon effect”.
he calls it “Southern hospitality and social desirability bias.”
but i think this 538 reader comment is interesting.
its not so much of an anti-mormon vote, altho that may be part of it, as a vote for the MOST religious candidate, and an unwillingness to be seen as a godbothering biblethumper.
chopper
@samara morgan:
hey look, it’s discovered irony.
The Other Chuck
@Schlemizel:
It puts the lotion on its skin or it goes back into the ignore list again.
patent
I never knew there was a group of people doing this officially. We I worked (retired now) and I went on business trips, I always used to try to walk the city as much as I can. Cities I visited that I considered fun and walkable: Boston, Seattle, New York, San Francisco. Cities I visited that were not walkable: Los Angeles (downtown), Dallas, Boulder.