NSFW, assuming the word masturbating is not in general use around your workplace. Recommended by multiple commentors, alsoBuzzfeed and Slate.
The NYTimes has called the Illinois primary for Romney, with just over 55% of the 24% of precincts reporting.
From Richard Adams’ invaluable Guardian blog:
8.56pm: On CNN, Erick Erickson is betting that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum’s campaigns are living on borrowed time after Romney’s result tonight in Illinois: “This is the first big win he’s had that we haven’t prefaced with ‘Yes, but…'”
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8.50pm: Appropriately, Rick Santorum’s party is being held in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania. Last time there was a big gig there, the guy with the support coming up from the south also got a hammering.
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8.41pm: CNN has also called Mitt Romney as the winnner in Illinois.
I wonder if a single tear made its way down Erick the RedStater’s chubby cheek as he was forced to concede the power of the RomneyBorg?
dmsilev
Of course not. By this time tomorrow,
we’ll have always been at war with EastasiaErickovich will have always supported Romney.Yutsano
@dmsilev: The Southern preachers who have railed against Mormonism as a cult for decades will be more entertaining to watch as they get behind Willard. Of course their flocks will think nothing of the hypocritical change.
amk
erickkk will fold like a wimp he is. they all are and they all will.
arguingwithsignposts
This post is posted at 9:06, the previous one at 9:04. Is there absolutely no coordination between the FPers here? At least space things out a little bit. Give people a chance to catch up.
Judas Escargot
VICTORY!
(for, um… someone or other)
dmsilev
@Yutsano: I’m pretty sure they’ll manage the mental gymnastics somehow. And will get all huffy and upset if anyone dares point out the hypocrisy.
Yutsano
@dmsilev: Well yes. Because it would be uncivil and, dare I say it, shrill.
cathyx
@arguingwithsignposts: Most of us can switch back and forth with no problem. They are different topics that may or may not appeal to everyone.
Baud
Romney’s speech tonight is lame even by Romney standards.
MikeJ
Taegan says Nate says, “that exits polls also show that 32% of Illinois voters decided whom to vote for either just today or in the last few days”.
Are Illinois Republicans dumber than other Republicans?
Yutsano
@Baud: I’m just curious: has he ever given a GOOD speech?
Spaghetti Lee
Cook and Lake got their votes in first, which is total Romney country. I predict he’ll fall below 45% of the vote before it’s over.
But I kinda saw this coming. Illinois is probably the most completely dominated by its urban area of the midwestern states, and the cities have been Romney territory. South of Peoria or so looks like it’s covered in Santorum, but almost nobody lives there.
Oh, and pre-emptive for Veritas: VICTORY!
Baud
@Yutsano: I’m gonna guess no.
Spaghetti Lee
Also, looks like Schneider beat Sheyman in that Dem primary everyone was talking about-doesn’t really matter to me, I just want Dold out of office. And Kinzinger is beating Manzullo, although it’s early. Only question there is who I hate more, and it’s a photo finish.
dmsilev
@Spaghetti Lee: Bear in mind, though, that almost nobody voted in Chicago. City officials were calling it the lowest turnout for a Presidential primary on record. Romney may have won the majority of Republicans voting in Chicago, but that means almost nothing.
beltane
This has nothing directly to do with the Illinois primary but Texas state senator, and vocal Planned Parenthood supporter, Wendy Davis’s office in Ft. Worth was just firebombed http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/03/20/1076277/-BREAKING-Texas-Democratic-State-Sen-Wendy-Davis-Fort-Worth-Office-Firebombed
Just a random nutter I’m sure.
Rita R.
Romney just said this election is about principle — and if Americans don’t like that, he’ll change his position next week. If the word for Santorum is sanctimonious, for Romney it’s smarmy, just edging out phony.
Amir Khalid
This will be Mitt’s first majority win this primary season, right?
amk
@Spaghetti Lee: How do you see IL voting in November ?
MikeJ
@beltane: But they still argue there’s no war on women, even when they’re firing live rounds.
Anoniminous
@dmsilev:
46% of precincts reporting, 80% of Cook county is in, and they have yet to break 300,000 total votes.
amk
@Amir Khalid: mehmney won his own state by 3 to 1.
Anoniminous
@Amir Khalid:
No. He won Massachusetts and Virginia outright.
beltane
@Amir Khalid: Romney is at 50% now but the more Santorum-friendly counties haven’t reported yet so their is a decent chance Romney will win with under 50% of the vote. But he won Massachusetts in a landslide so that’s all that matters.
Spaghetti Lee
@amk:
Obama, of course.
dmsilev
@Amir Khalid:
Massachusetts, Virginia, and Puerto Rico. The first two are arguably special cases (his actual home state for the one, and only facing Ron Paul on the ballot for the other), but PR was a real win. Didn’t hurt that Santorum basically campaigned there just long enough to moon all of the locals and left, but Romney did win a substantial majority.
Cacti
Come on Frothy. Rebound in Louisiana this weekend.
amk
@Anoniminous: VA was with only the old nutjob in the ballot with him. So it doesn’t count.
beltane
It’s now Romney 49-Santorum 33 with 52% reporting. Mitt will get the win but probably won’t get the majority of votes.
amk
@Spaghetti Lee: Good. Thanks.
Anoniminous
Oddly enough, depending on how the votes go downstate Santorum could end-up with more delegates than Romney. GOP held CDs have 4 delegates and that’s where Frothy is running ahead of Mittens.
ETA: Newt is running way below his pre-election polling. They had him at ~14% and he’s getting 7%
amk
@beltane: I just hope he doesn’t crack the 50% line. Yet again.
MikeJ
BTW, triple J is ahead 72-28 and Duckworth is up 64-36.
Anoniminous
@amk:
Yeah, but PR had, IIRC, twenty-seven voters picking twelve delegates. (Or something like that.)
A Win is a VICTORY!, no matter how cheesy.
;-)
amk
grey lady in re IL primary
so sweet.
Amir Khalid
And per the wonderfully snarky Richard Adams, it does look like Mitt’s Illinois majority might yet shrink to a plurality. So now he’s won Massachusetts and Virginia by a majority, but nowhere else, and it’s still going to be a long hard slog to the convention.
How goes the delegate count?
amk
@Anoniminous: yeah, veritas must be having his jerk-off moment big time tonight.
beltane
@amk: He’s now down to 48%.
Egg Berry
Just out of curiosity, since it’s not a closed primary, how much ratfucking is going on in the GOP primary from Dems crossing over to screw with Mitt?
J.W. Hamner
Doesn’t really do anything for me, but I freely admit to being a cranky pants.
ChrisNYC
I get a perverse thrill out of watching Santorum go into the repulsive ego trance he does during speeches. Those looooong pauses for effect … you can just hear him listening to his own cadence and getting turned on.
pseudonymous in nc
@Spaghetti Lee:
Cook went 76/24 Obama in the 2008 general election; Lake went 56/43. Once again, Romney’s winning in the places where Obama’s got the bulk of the votes. On one level, this isn’t a surprise; still, it adds to the shit sandwich, because the base gets to see Mittens receive the nomination on the back of the Republicans they don’t like.
doofus
@Egg Berry: I did. I have very mixed feelings about doing it though.
Baud
@ChrisNYC:
That’s God feeding him lines.
dmsilev
@Egg Berry: In the end, I couldn’t bring myself to do it. I know a couple of my coworkers were at least talking about getting a GOP ballot strictly to screw with the Republicans, but no idea if they went through with it.
Amir Khalid
@amk:
Posted my comment before I saw yours. So VICTORY! doesn’t actually add to Mitt’s confirmed delegate count? Sigh. At least by now I’ve learned not to ask “Then what’s the point?”
Quincy
@Spaghetti:
Not my district, but I was torn about who to root for. I know Sheyman was supposed to be better on issues, but Sherman is a safer bet and we can’t afford to squander winnable seats.
ChrisNYC
@Baud: Ha!
jl
Thanks for the Rmoney clip.
I sense a great future for the youtube clip, and copied the URL to a safe undisclosed location on my ‘puter.
Glad to see the inspirational Romney quote “I made a lot of money” was included.
Hope there is a sequel with the Michigan trees are just the right height and the Puerto Rico is a pancake quotes.
nellcote
Rmoney’s snotty tone is starting to sound just like LaPalin’s. If I try really hard I last about 3 min. listening to him.
Anoniminous
@pseudonymous in nc:
And since delegates are awarded by percentage of GOP vote in that district in 2008 Santorum could actually end up with more delegates tonight.
Have to see how it goes downstate.
Cacti
Even though Willard won’t win the general, I still has a sad that he’ll eventually win the primary…
After Willard locks up the GOP nom, he’ll go on to an H.W. Bush/Bob Dole sized thumping in November. The wingnuts will go even farther round the bend and swear “Never again will a smartass Mormon RINO buy the nomination!”
I want a true-blue proto-fascist like Santorum to win it. Then when he got completely obliterated in the fall, they’d have nothing but their angry tears and sputtering rage.
amk
@Amir Khalid: The rethugs royally screwed up their primary system this time around with 2008 dem race in mind.
A case of cat branding himself to look like the tiger.
Spaghetti Lee
@pseudonymous in nc:
Well of course they are in the general, I’m talking in the context of the Republican primary. And yeah, if you take Romney counties vs. Santorum counties in any given race, it often looks like a Dem/GOP general election map, especially in the Midwest.
amk
@beltane: So yet another mehmney win under 50% ?
what a pathetic “presumptive nominee” of a “front-runner”.
scav
Distinctly odd to rooting for downstate to come on and do its usual thing and keep the kaos at the simmer.
jl
Lemme get this straight, some pundit had the complete lack of judgment to go on national TV and talk as if Romney would get 50 percent of the vote?
Hard to believe. I want proof. Some post a clip.
No, never mind, Any clip of that would obviously be doctored.
I don’t believe it. Just liberal propaganda on this lefty blog, is what I think.
Davis X. Machina
@Cacti: It won’t be a thumping, though.
47% or so is Romney’s absolute floor in a two-candidate race. I’d go as high as 48%.
McCain got 45.5% in an absolutely toxic environment: economic free-fall, after two terms of Bush, with the worst VP pick in memory, and one of the worst in history, burdening the ticket. His opposition had him out-savvied six ways to Sunday. And he still slightly out-performed Dukakis.
Romney will not do worse. No way. Not unless the President suddenly wakes up white.
amk
@Davis X. Machina: Good point. Never underestimate the dumbfuckery of american electorate.
Jay in Oregon
@beltane:
Haven’t you heard? The DEMON-RATS are so evil and pernicious that they’ll attack and kill their own just to make conservatives look bad.
ChrisNYC
OT — Most perfect picture. Boehner blubbering, Obama composed.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/click/2012/03/listening-to-irish-music-boehner-tears-up-118081.html
Spaghetti Lee
@Davis X. Machina:
I think if the economy gets better by leaps and bounds, it could be a romp. One thing I think you’re not factoring in (and maybe it doesn’t matter, I don’t know), is public favorability. McCain was generally well-liked by lots of people. Romney has a fav/unfav split somewhere in the 27-59 neighborhood, or did a while ago, and he hasn’t shown any signs that he can avoid jamming his foot in his mouth. Also, his VP pick will be as crazy as Palin if not more so, to keep the base happy.
pseudonymous in nc
@Spaghetti Lee:
Yeah, we’re making the same point — and this is pretty different from both sides in the 2008 primary. Makes it difficult for Rmoney to pivot when the wingnut base already thinks that the city RINOs have foisted him on them.
McCain’s being “next in line” was also a bit different from Romney, because plenty of voters had some degree of buyers’ remorse over Bush. He also wasn’t a professional run-for-presidenter in the intervening years.
Spaghetti Lee
@Jay in Oregon:
If you can stomach it, read some rightie blogposts TBogg fished out of the muck about Malia Obama’s trip to Mexico. One guy genuinely thought Obama would have his daughter killed to boost his approval ratings.
beltane
@ChrisNYC: Boehner looks completely and utterly wasted in that picture.
kay
Is this over yet?
My loathing of Santorum is distracting me from Mitt Romney’s constant lying.
I can’t concentrate.
In other news, we now have two OFA organizers staying here, both young women.
They’re having an event at the Steelworkers hall soon, so they managed to get in w/ them here already.
ChrisNYC
@beltane: I *cannot* believe he cries at Irish music while he’s basically at work. The man is composed of nothing but maudlin sadness.
Mnemosyne
@Davis X. Machina:
I dunno. I just spent a long weekend with my Republican parents in right-wingnuttia land (aka Arizona) and it was an interesting visit. They call Obama a “socialist” and complain about his policies, but we couldn’t get them to come out in favor of any of the Republican candidates. My mom (who doesn’t vote anyway) says she doesn’t like any of them.
I can definitely see a scenario where Republican voters stay home, or skip voting for president while voting on downticket races and referendums (referenda?). I really don’t think Republicans are motivated to vote ABO (anyone but Obama).
Mnemosyne
Argh. Can we at least get the “soc-ial-ist” word fixed in the new version of the website?
Chris Stein
And now that ~85% of the votes are in he’s slipped to below 47%
Cacti
@Spaghetti Lee:
And of course the elephant in the living room…
Romney belongs to what most of wingnuttia considers a cult. He had his own personal “Bradley Effect” by underperforming polls in Alabama and Mississippi.
Cacti
@Davis X. Machina:
Romney is polling double-digits worse than McCain with women and Hispanic voters.
Tom Q
@Davis X. Machina: Care to put money behind that? (A small amount — I’m not financially capable of any more)
I say Obama at least matches his ’08 margin, and I’m thinking potentially considerably more. Assuming the economy just continues what it’s been doing the past 4-5 months, the metrics of the race are close to Reagan/Mondale level — which translates to easy incumbent re-election. GOP loyalty in the slave & mountain states preclude an electoral sweep like Reagan’s, but contrarily that means Barack with a solid national margin will win the swing states in a romp.
I really don’t know why so many Dems are congenital Eeyores.
phoebes-in-santa fe
@beltane: I just donated to her campaign on ActBlue. I hope support pours in for her.
James E. Powell
@Tom Q:
It isn’t that I’m an Eeyore; it’s that I’m from Cleveland. A lifetime of losses in the last two minutes, the last inning, the last seconds, means I never believe in a win until I read about in the next day’s paper.
That said, your analysis is sound. If the economy continues to improve and there are no overseas surprises, I don’t see that Romney has any issues that he can use to get a majority of the vote.
Another thing to consider when comparing this year with 2008. Obama was black and a new guy, whereas McCain was white and well-known. Obama being black is not going to win Romney any voters who didn’t vote for McCain or stay home. That Obama is now well-known and generally well-liked may get him some McCain voters.
And if the late October polls show Romney losing, a lot of the ‘vote against the black guy’ types will stay home.
Davis X. Machina
@Tom Q:
@James E. Powell:
This election isn’t like all the priors.
The need, the obligation, the necessity, to get That Awful Negro out of the White House, plus the usual salad bar of ballot propositions, will more than offset a nominee enthusiasm gap among GOP voters. I expect turnout to be as high as 2008 — and not because of Democratic enthusiasm, which is somewhat muted.
Obama’s EV and popular margins will both be lower than ’08. Provided he wins at all.
AxelFoley
@James E. Powell:
LOL, I always wanted to ask a Cleveland fan: who’s hated more in Cleveland–John Elway or Michael Jordan?
mainmati
Not looking like a good night for McCain, however.
bjacques
Brilliant! But I was thinking more along the lines of “Bad Romnance.”
leader
I plan to show this to my brother we were just talking about this this morning!